Trump gleefully posts war footage while Iranian fear for survival

[0:00] Tonight, Donald Trump is gleefully posting more footage of U.S. attacks on Iran, all [0:04] while ratcheting up his bloodthirsty rhetoric. [0:06] He shared this clip tonight of what he called a, quote, massive strike in Tehran. [0:11] It is unclear when this strike took place, though, and whether any new military leaders [0:15] were killed or what the source of the actual video is. [0:18] Now, this comes just two days after he celebrated this strike on a bridge near Tehran on Thursday, [0:23] which killed eight people and injured nearly 100. [0:26] Trump later posted, quote, our military hasn't even started destroying what's left in Iran. [0:32] Bridge is next. [0:33] Iran, electric power, then electric power plants, a day before Trump said this. [0:40] We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. [0:45] We're going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong. [0:51] Stuck in the middle of the violence are everyday Iranians just trying to survive. [0:55] One Tehran business owner told The New York Times, quote, Iran is being destroyed in front [0:59] of our eyes. [1:00] What if we are left here to rot in the hands of this regime with no connection to the outside [1:06] world? [1:06] Joining us once again is Kian Tashpaksh, a former political prisoner who was released [1:11] as part of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. [1:14] He's an international relations professor at New York University and a fellow at Columbia [1:17] University's Committee on Global Thought. [1:19] Professor, it's great to have you back on the show. [1:21] It seems a little bit of a disconnect here because the rhetoric that we're hearing from [1:25] the administration is becoming, as we described, more bloodthirsty. [1:29] We're hearing, even tonight with the post from Donald Trump, glory be to God that we [1:36] are going to destroy them. [1:37] And it's kind of like language that I think for people in the region, but specifically [1:41] in Iran, I'm sure if they are hearing that, if they have access to outside information, [1:45] I'm sure Iran State TV is probably playing that for them and showing them what they're [1:49] doing to, you know, highlight the agenda or the narrative of the regime. [1:53] But if you were to hear that as an Iranian, what would go through your mind that this [1:58] is the kind of language that America is evoking? [2:00] Is it bombs your country? [2:02] Right. [2:02] Well, thank you very much for having me on again. [2:05] First of all, let me say, as an American citizen and as an Iranian citizen, I am very disturbed [2:11] by this kind of language. [2:13] I mean, I don't want my American president to speak in these terms. [2:16] And as an Iranian, I don't want to hear those things being said about the country. [2:22] Now, that said, I think that many people inside Iran, they are sophisticated. [2:26] They are not naive. [2:27] They know that Donald Trump. [2:30] He is someone who uses very unconventional language for a politician. [2:35] It's a lot of bluster, a lot of hyperbole. [2:38] So they discount, I think, a lot of what, you know, what he says. [2:42] And they look to see what's happening on the ground. [2:45] And what they see happening on the ground, and I think this is important, is that the [2:50] targeted strikes, I mean, the strikes that have been happening mostly in the last month [2:56] have been quite targeted. [2:59] I think a lot of people inside. [3:00] And people I speak to on a daily basis or, let's say, two or three times a week when [3:05] we have a chance, they do recognize that the targets are those which are the regime's IRGC. [3:13] They hit a music school. [3:15] Well, OK, so I think that— [3:17] I mean, that was one of them, right? [3:18] You know about the music school that was hit? [3:20] Well, actually, no, I don't know about that. [3:22] Yeah, there was a music school that was hit. [3:24] There was a video of the damage outbuilding. [3:26] There were—Tahran University and other universities that were also hit. [3:29] There was a bridge that was— [3:30] Under construction that was also hit. [3:32] There was a hospital, a psychiatric ward that was hit. [3:35] Yes, and, yeah, I mean, even more than that, actually, there's what's called the Pasteur [3:40] Institute, is actually one of the oldest and most respectable science facilities inside [3:47] not only Iran but the Middle East, done absolutely cutting-edge work on vaccines and science. [3:53] That has been destroyed. [3:54] Now, you know, my position is very clear. [4:01] If there are targeted strikes on civilian infrastructure or civilian areas, [4:08] that should be absolutely condemned as a war crime. [4:12] It should be followed. [4:13] As an American citizen, I would be the first to actually, you know, pursue that and condemn that. [4:18] My assumption, though, is until we hear otherwise, [4:22] especially given a situation where a lot of the American military is concerned about dwindling munitions, [4:31] I doubt that they would actually shoot missiles at—randomly at non-military targets. [4:38] The bridge, for example, that you had in your intro, that has been quite clearly identified. [4:44] Now, it's not 100 percent confirmed, because we don't have all the access, [4:47] but it's been fairly clearly identified as a bridge that was dedicated to convey very heavy ballistic missiles for the IRGC [4:59] from one area of— [5:01] Tehran to an IRGC-controlled area. [5:03] So, you know, I think that's part of this attempt to degrade the logistical background. [5:10] There was a story in The Wall Street Journal, though, about how there are people in the Pentagon [5:16] who are trying to sort of, like, compile the evidence to suggest that it would be OK to target electric power plants [5:23] because that would somehow, you know, disable their missile systems or their, you know, some other military functions. [5:29] So, I mean, my concern— [5:31] I'm not an Iranian citizen, but my concern would be that whatever a prioritization of military munitions might look like [5:42] from a strategic perspective, that's not necessarily what they will do, [5:47] because Donald Trump has already explicitly said he wants to do lots of other things as well, [5:52] including taking out power plants, including bombing them back to the Stone Age. [5:57] Because you had this beautiful quote, I thought, that really summarized— [6:01] I think you summarized it quite well in your sub-stack, where you said, [6:03] on the language and on the tenor of the rhetoric when it comes to, you know, civilian infrastructure [6:09] and just the country writ large, it is morally ugly, strategically reckless, and politically costly. [6:15] It sounds less like serious statecraft than punitive rage, [6:18] and it will reinforce exactly the anti-American narrative on which the regime thrives, [6:22] which I thought was very insightful. [6:25] And you had, you know, this sub-stack that I would encourage all of our viewers to read, [6:29] just talking about how Trump's— [6:31] his speech this week illuminated somewhat the policy, his policy for you, [6:36] and it also made you question other elements of it. [6:39] And could you just kind of explain why you feel that way? [6:43] Yeah, sure. [6:43] I mean, first of all, his speech, it was disappointing, [6:46] both as an American and as an Iranian, in a number of respects. [6:50] First of all, the claim about regime change and saying so definitively [6:55] that there has been regime change in Iran, [6:58] my take on that is, well, first of all, he must know. [7:01] I mean, it's either one of two things. [7:03] Either he knows, and that he's now misguiding and misleading [7:09] both the Iranian people and the American people [7:12] in not telling them the truth, the fact that, as I mentioned in my piece, [7:18] we know exactly who is running the country right now. [7:21] And these aren't new faces, as President Trump said. [7:24] These aren't more reasonable faces. [7:26] These are actually hardened members of the regime [7:30] that have always been— [7:31] that have been there for two or three decades. [7:33] So he should be straight, both with the American people [7:36] about what has been achieved, because otherwise he— [7:39] you know, everyone knows it's going to be reported, [7:41] like on tonight's show, [7:42] and he's going to look either as someone who is not telling the truth. [7:47] And for Iranians, they would feel insulted, I think, [7:50] by the fact that they are now living under a regime [7:52] that the American president is saying has been completely changed. [7:55] Or more moderate or more reasonable. [7:57] Yeah, I read that moment as him trying to walk back, [8:01] what had been a sort of implicit, sometimes explicit promise [8:04] in the lead-up to all of this. [8:06] He and other members of the administration [8:08] described the project of democracy, of freeing Iran, [8:12] as a major reason that Americans should support this war. [8:16] The polls, of course, show Americans very much do not. [8:19] And so then to not have evidence [8:21] that you're actually following through on that promise, [8:23] I think he's kind of trying a rhetorical trick there, [8:25] where he has it both ways, like, [8:27] well, if technically, if you're going to hold me [8:29] to the standard of regime change, I did kill someone. [8:31] I killed some of those guys. [8:32] But also, I never promised a regime change, [8:35] so I can't be wrong. [8:36] I found that to be a very slippery, tricky thing [8:39] so that he can't be held accountable [8:40] by Iranian-Americans in the diaspora, [8:43] who may feel betrayed in some cases. [8:45] He can't be held by Americans wondering, sort of like, [8:47] why, what are we doing? [8:48] And what were you trying to tell me [8:49] this was all about in the first place? [8:51] Yes, exactly. [8:52] I mean, I think, you know, I think, I mean, it is true, [8:55] and I think we should remember [8:56] that I think from the beginning of the war, [8:58] President Trump and the administration said [9:00] that we are not interested in doing the regime change. [9:05] We want to prepare the conditions [9:06] so that the Iranian people themselves do it. [9:09] I think, you know, we should remember [9:10] that that is what he said. [9:11] On the first day of strikes, he encouraged people. [9:13] Oh, yes. [9:14] He called for people to go out there. [9:15] Oh, yes, that's right. [9:15] Something that's an incredibly dangerous call to make [9:18] if you haven't actually sufficiently created [9:19] the conditions for people to do that. [9:21] Right, and I had one real quick point, [9:23] just to kind of make it for our viewers, [9:24] about the bridge and the infrastructure. [9:25] I think that, like, when you talk to, for our viewers here, [9:29] we take I-19. [9:30] I-95, I-75, those are federal highways in this country. [9:34] We've all been on highways [9:34] where we've seen American military trucks [9:36] moving from bases in and out [9:38] through on these highway systems. [9:41] It would be inconceivable for me to think [9:43] that if, God forbid, Iran has the ability [9:44] to strike an American highway, [9:46] to say we are going to hit I-95, [9:47] we're going to hit the George Washington Bridge, [9:49] we're going to hit whatever highway system we can [9:51] because we know that it connects American military bases, [9:54] when the vast majority of the people [9:55] who use the infrastructure... [9:57] And so I have this problem with this argument. [10:00] Of, like, just relying on America and Israel [10:03] to say these are military targets [10:05] and we're justifying it [10:06] when we don't have any independent way [10:08] of even determining to what extent [10:10] something is a military target or not. [10:12] I just think, like, I think it's something important [10:13] for our viewers to understand [10:14] that, like, when we talk about these things, [10:16] because we don't have visibility [10:18] and most of us don't understand [10:19] how Tehran is a huge city of millions of people, [10:22] overlaps with government, overlaps with military, [10:25] overlaps with civil society, [10:27] to then just say, hey, we're going to bomb this hospital [10:29] because it happens to be... [10:30] Or bomb a school [10:30] because it happens to be next to a military base [10:33] and then you get 175 schoolchildren killed. [10:35] Oh, yes, that's right. [10:36] So, I mean, the only thing I'd say about that is that... [10:40] You know, the only thing I'd say about that [10:41] is that in war, [10:43] the issue of collateral damage [10:46] is a tragic, almost inevitability. [10:49] And the issue is whether civilians [10:51] are targeted deliberately. [10:53] That's one issue. [10:55] And the second issue is whether [10:56] that kind of collateral damage [10:58] is a... [11:00] or whether it's the rule. [11:02] And so Iran is deliberately, for example, [11:05] targeting residential areas [11:06] throughout the Gulf Arab countries [11:08] and in Israel. [11:10] And so my assumption is, you know, [11:13] I should hold my government, [11:15] the American government, [11:16] to a very high standard [11:17] if it is shown that there was negligence, [11:20] which I believe for the school, [11:22] the schoolchildren, the girls' school, [11:24] that the 175 girls... [11:26] That was negligence. [11:28] And that there should be accountability, [11:30] for that. [11:31] But I should also say, remember, [11:33] and this may be... [11:34] This is a controversial issue, [11:36] is that the same tactics [11:38] that were used in Gaza [11:40] are tactics that the Iranian IRGC [11:45] had taught both Hezbollah and Hamas. [11:48] And that is to embed military installations [11:53] and military facilities [11:54] within residential areas. [11:56] And one argument about Iran, [11:58] what makes it complicated, [12:00] is that given the air superiority [12:02] of Israel and America, [12:04] the IRGC may be hiding [12:06] in some of these issues. [12:07] But I know that's controversial [12:08] and without independent confirmation, [12:10] it's hard to say. [12:11] We look forward to having you back [12:12] to talk about all of this very soon. [12:14] Luckily, we've got AI [12:14] to help us with the targeting. [12:16] Oh, Lord. [12:17] Another conversation for another day. [12:19] Kian Tajbach, thank you so much. [12:21] Great to have you.