Trump cares about ballroom and getting 'revenge' not gas or grocery prices: Ex-GOP strategist

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Joining us now, executive editor of The Nation, John Nichols, Cook Political Report, senior editor and elections analyst Dave Wasserman, co-founder of the Lincoln Project and former GOP strategist Rick Wilson and former Democratic senator from California, Barbara Boxer. John, the economy helped Trump win in 2024 and win big with promises to make America affordable again. Two years later, things seem to be getting worse for most Americans, at least according to those polling numbers that we just illuminated. So is this the moment? Is this the opportunity for Democrats like we saw back in 2018? [00:00:38] Speaker 2: It's it's in the ballpark. We will see where it goes. Remember, campaigns move fast and things can change. Factors can shift. But here's one of the things to keep very conscious of. In 2024, Donald Trump's coalition relied very heavily on a huge victory in rural areas and on very strong victories in small cities, historically industrial areas. That that base has really been hurt by the current economy. Farmers are struggling. They are very concerned about uncertainty as regards, you know, what what will happen with what they produce there. They are unsettled by tariffs. And so, too, are a lot of small business owners who might very much have been inclined toward Trump on those economic promises, but are also really struggling. So one of the things that when we talk about an economy, we usually think about consumers as we should people who have to pay more for for bread or for basic products or for gas to get to work. But it's also a lot of those folks who were pretty reliable Trump voters who are now as farmers, as small business owners and, you know, obviously everybody associated with them who are feeling a hurt. If that hurt takes hold in a number of the battleground states, those are the tipping votes. Those are the votes that could really open a door for Democrats. [00:01:59] Speaker 1: So to that end, Rick, you know, right now, Senate Republicans are getting pretty worried, some telling the Hill that they see Trump as a growing political liability as they try to hold on to the Senate this fall. And looking, let's take a look. This is kind of our wonky segment where I look at a bunch of data, but it's clarifying here. Three recent polls, as we've been talking about, rate President Trump's approval at 34 percent, 33 percent and a dismal 32 percent. How much can Republicans expect to pay for the president's very unpopular agenda come November? [00:02:32] Speaker 3: With majorities in both the houses is what they can expect to pay. This is a president who, to put it bluntly, Americans are starting to really, really hate. They see all the economic damage that you outlined at the top of the segment. They see that he does not care about that. He cares about his golden ballroom and his statues and his and his lettering on the White House and taking revenge on his allies and getting a slush fund for his for his friends. They see that he doesn't care about gas prices, that he doesn't care about grocery price, doesn't care about the cost of health care or rent or mortgages. And they they it's now unspinnable. No matter how much you support Trump, you can't look at the gas pump and go, oh, it's two bucks a gallon because it's not. They are really feeling the pain and they are also simultaneously seeing that all Trump is interested in in D.C. is self-dealing and his weird decorator schemes. [00:03:22] Speaker 1: Is this a fait accompli for Republicans? Is there any way out at this point? [00:03:28] Speaker 3: Look, it's very difficult for them to weasel out of this at this point because they've basically epoxied themselves to Trump for a generation of Republican leaders now and said he can make no mistakes. He is perfect. We love him. We will do what he wants. It's going to sound pretty hollow, I think, to most American voters to suddenly after your primary closes late in the summer to pop up and go, wow, Trump's been wrong all along. I'm going to do something better for you. It's really not going to you're not going to fly with most Americans. [00:03:56] Speaker 1: And there are a lot of disgruntled Republicans, Dave. Republican voters, though, do by polling numbers feel more hopeful about the economy under Trump than Democrats. A Fox poll found that while 75 percent of Democrats expect the economy to get worse, 71 percent of Republicans express some degree of optimism that things could improve. But there are Republicans, Republican strategists, lawmakers expressing some concern that this disgruntled population within the GOP could just stay home, according to Washington Post polling. So what are you expecting when it comes to turnout in November? [00:04:32] Speaker 4: Ariel, things have gone from bad to extremely bad for Republicans and President Trump in the polls in just the past month. But there is a warning sign here for Democrats as well. Look at that Reuters poll. Trump said negative 23 approval, 38 to 61. And yet Democrats only have a five point lead on the congressional ballot. And so what that means is there are an awful lot of voters out there who hate the job that the president is doing. And yet Democrats have not closed the sale with those voters to bring them to their camp. Now, I do think there's going to be a MAGA malaise in November, a huge turnout problem that we've already seen on display in these special elections. But is that going to be enough to flip some of these double digit Trump states that Democrats need in order to win the Senate? And Ariel, the big gap that I see in the polls, people are very much decided on how they feel about Donald Trump. But there's still 10 to 15 percent of voters who haven't made up their mind for Congress. That's where candidate quality really comes into play. And if you're talking about Roy Cooper in North Carolina or Josh Turek in Iowa, who are running as more generic, moderate Democrats and running as a check on Donald Trump, that's an easier sale to close than, say, Francesca Hong running for governor of Wisconsin, who Republicans can point out, called for abolishing Thanksgiving a couple of years ago and wants a progressive millionaire's tax that could drive people out of the state. So candidates are really going to matter this November. [00:05:58] Speaker 1: That's a really good point. And I think the other point that you made there that we can't gloss over is that while a lot of the electorate is angry and, you know, as Rick may point out, hey, it's President Trump, they're also big mad at the Democrats, too. Let's look at some of the voting blocs, though, that Trump is losing support in, where it's eroding. The very same people who actually helped him win the popular vote in 2024, including, as you saw there at the top, young men were a catalyst for Trump in 2024. Now a poll from Yale shows men under 30 were one of the two groups that Trump has lost the most ground with. And across the board, young people overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump's performance, with large majorities of voters, whether it's age 18 to 22, 23 to 29, and 30 to 34, expressing disapproval. What's behind, what is underpinning that shift? [00:06:50] Speaker 4: Younger voters are the ones who are looking for jobs, they're trying to get a start in life, and they're struggling under the Trump economy. His numbers are catastrophic with this group. And yet, these are also the voters who are most open to progressive Democrats. And for the midterms, it's kind of an all-hands-on-deck approach, where a lot of the progressive voices in the party are going to be turning out some of these voters. And I think candidates running on the left and towards the center on the Democratic side are likely to be successful. But there can be a reckoning in 2028 between these two wings of the party. And although the lack of unity on the Democratic side, as we're seeing in primaries playing out today in Michigan, is probably not going to hinder Democrats' chances of winning the midterms, at least one chamber, the House, it's going to need to be resolved if Democrats are going to win the White House back. [00:07:44] Speaker 1: Yeah, and they also have to govern once they get there. Senator Boxer, do you agree that there's going to be some kind of reckoning? And are Democrats even in a position to scoop up these young voters, particularly those young men, or are they too challenged with all the fractures that we're seeing in the party? [00:08:02] Speaker 5: You know, sometimes I think we work so hard to find the answer that's right in front of us. To me, it's pretty simple. And I think I agree with Rick's analysis here, if I could. I mean, you've got a toxic environment out there in terms of the economy, in terms of this war, in terms of, you know, how people feel about the future. They're very frightened about the future. And who controls the White House? Republicans, Trump. Who controls the House? Republicans. Who controls the Senate? Republicans. That's it. They can't run away from it. And they're not even trying to. They're so weak. It's pathetic. So who's feeling the pain the most? I think young people, because, you know, they're just starting out and they're scared. The job market is weak. Prices are soaring. I think back, I was in my 20s. I never owned a home. My parents never owned a home. I was able to buy a home with my husband when I was in my late 20s. Now it looks like you've got to be around 40 years old. This is not good. So the economy is front and center. The war is front and center. And last point I'd make is I'm not afraid about Democrats taking each other on in a primary. Big deal. I did it in my primary all those years ago. I was not, you know, the establishment choice. And everyone came together afterwards. And we had a race in California here where the progressive lost and the female candidate in the 48th district. She's fantastic. She won. And everybody's coming together. So I think it's going to be OK. [00:09:46] Speaker 1: Barbara, if if the Trump base is shrinking and we know that it is, if you have all these concerns that are being expressed, at least to to media outlets about, you know, whether Trump is becoming a liability and you do start to see a shift away from the president, you know, Republicans unlatching themselves. Should that change the message for Democrats when they can't run strictly on an anti-Trump message? [00:10:10] Speaker 5: I think we have to have both things going on. Things are bad. This is why, you know, the Republicans follow Trump off the hill. You know, they'll crash and burn with him. So that's one issue. But listen to us. We come together, even though we might argue about certain things. We come together when it comes to freedom and democracy and diplomacy and trying to make sure people have good jobs. So there's so much more that unites us. And the last point I make here is independent voters. And, you know, we're on here. I'm on here with so many people who know more than I do about them. But in all of my races, I would have lost without them. And I think they are leaning Democratic hard. So I think that's going to make a big difference. And I'm very hopeful. Having said that, take nothing for granted. Thank you. [00:11:14] Speaker ?: And I think that's going to make a big difference. And I think that's going to make a big difference. And I think that's going to make a big difference. And I think that's going to make a big difference. And I think that's going to make a big difference. And I think that's going to make a big difference. And I think that's going to make a big difference. And I think that's going to make a big difference. And I think that's going to make a big difference. And I think that's going to make a big difference.