Tim Knight on the Only Market Analysis You Actually Need

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: but the party's kind of waning. The ES is up a mere quarter percent right now. And to me, a little bit of the tell was Bitcoin because Bitcoin was exceptionally strong. And after the report came out, Bitcoin kind of led the way down. I have mixed feelings about Bitcoin. I don't have any good feelings about its utility, but I think it's a much more organic market than equities are. And so I think it's sort of leading the way to the truth. So it's kind of fascinating to watch. It's sort of 15-minute advance as to what's going on with equities. But I must say, looking at the ES chart here, if we may, we're kind of in this date of purgatory still. Sixth day in a row of wiggling a little bit, but very little in the way of dynamism. I mean, compare these six days to these months where it's like, a circus, we might want to start handing out espressos or something to our viewers with this market. [00:01:07] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been a crazy sideways move here with a very narrow range over the last five days. But, I mean, something's going to give eventually. [00:01:17] Speaker 1: Yeah, and frankly, I'm glad I didn't give to the upside because it looked like it might. I'll just click to the NQ here by way of example. The NQ has been stronger. It's about almost about three times as strong percentage-wise right now. But, it is still managed and it's the same six days, been grinding around and it stayed below this resistance line, which I just emphasize, it's not some dynamite pattern. It's pretty weak in terms of its quality, but it's the best I've got because we've basically stayed below this line all the way back to the beginning of July. And so, we're just kind of, for me, you know, because the correlations drop so much, it is much more of a stock picker's market, which is kind of my thing. And so, I'm just trying to focus on these little positions amongst dozens of different lovingly chosen stocks. But, naturally, if the NQ or the ES moves in a big way one way or the other, that's going to have an influence on everything no matter how obscure it might seem. [00:02:29] Speaker 3: Yeah, isn't it interesting how both of these are just really kind of consolidating? I mean, despite the move, if you will, today, I mean, this is not really that big of a move. And we're not so different than you think because you started off with Bitcoin and we were both talking about Bitcoin this morning and how it's just been really quiet. There's not much going on with Bitcoin and all the little ancillary names, the micro strategies, the coins of the world. And maybe at some point, again, something happens. I feel like, you know, I don't know, maybe I'm crazy, but I feel like the fall, the fall could probably be the beginning of something in Bitcoin. [00:02:58] Speaker 1: We'll see, but I hope so. I've got a video about, oh, there goes another shoe. I've got a big, I've got a Bitcoin video coming out today. And I make a point as a chartist and as a human being walking around the Silicon Valley. As a chartist, my view is that it's a tremendously, potentially bearish setup. We're not quite there yet. If we can get below 60,000, then I think we could see some really exciting movement. As just a person walking around, I don't buy all the narrative we're being given about, because I read somewhere like, you know, 42% of people own Bitcoin. It's like, no, they don't, no, they don't. You know, I'm in the heart of all of this. No one ever talks about it. No one ever uses it. It's just this gambling token. And I have the respect I have for it is that it's the last organic market on the planet. And so I'm long BITI, which is the inverse fund on Bitcoin, short MSTR, strategy, and short MARA, marathon. So, yeah, I agree. I think this autumn could really start kicking things down because the last big flourish of this was in 2025, based upon the notion that, well, the Trump presidency, he's the crypto president. And it peaked at 128,000 or less than half that now, and I could, my projection for it is to get down to the low 40s in the months ahead. [00:04:29] Speaker 3: Clay, classic buy the rumors, sell the news. We actually, I think, had a guest on the network recently who said 40s as well, Peter Brandt. Oh, okay. Yeah, I think when Chris interviewed him from what I heard, so, yeah. [00:04:39] Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, since I'm talking about it, here's the chart of BITI, B-I-T-I. And it was stronger than even the NQ this morning. And there was, you probably were watching as I was, as we got close to the bottom of the air when the announcement was coming out, everything got really bid up in anticipation. And Bitcoin was no exception. But, you know, the BTC futures are up, you know, 0.28% now, and they were up like 1.31%, say, an hour ago. And this is the chart of BITI, which if you just didn't even say what this chart was, if you just gave this chart to any experienced analyst, like, well, that looks bullish. It's not a sure thing because it's got to get above this neckline. But this is a good-looking bullish setup, provided it doesn't crack this ascending trend line. And when I say bullish setup, I'm talking about, like, years, you know, like, really, really high quality. And then, you know, you don't even have to think about the fact that it's this inverse Bitcoin ETF. It's just a chart. So keeping the stop on there is really all I'm worried about. We've got four green bars in a row so far. And this is just a very simple, direct means to express yourself if you do think Bitcoin is going to fall. [00:06:03] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been a wild ride, for sure. But, yeah, to the point of, like, Trump being the crypto president and we're not seeing those same kind of gains that we saw at the highs. And we're not even, we're not near the level of where we were either. [00:06:21] Speaker 1: Yeah, well, and there's always been a human urge to speculate, to gamble, and that's going to be satisfied in different ways. And through the decades, you know, it takes many forms, you know, state lotteries, going to Las Vegas, going to Atlantic City, and now Paulymark and Kalshi and crypto and stocks and options and futures and all that. And so there's all these, the demand is, I think, kind of constant amongst humans, and the supply is abundant, and it keeps changing. So we're seeing these industrial shifts based upon, like, who's going to get the attention of that need to gamble. One other, just kind of switching gears here, one tech stock that I think I mentioned yesterday and just wanted to hit again today is Meta. And based upon the, they had some recent chatter about Meta's AI efforts and Zuckerberg's kind of treatise on AI, it, for some reason, that got people excited. But it seems to be kind of pooping out, even with, and I emphasize, the Incu's up 300 points plus right now. And here we have Meta down almost 2%, bearish engulfing pattern. Maybe it won't even close the gap, but this is, as I said yesterday, from time to time, you get these very lusty bursts higher, you know, very sharp. They only last five, six days, but invariably, it seems, we just create yet another lower high, and that seems to be what we're doing now. So interesting setup there, longer term for Meta. So just, it's an odd one out, because we are down on this one, in spite of a very green in Q. [00:08:10] Speaker 3: It is very green, although that said, I mean, now that you mention it, like six of the Mag 7 seem like they're negative today. Meta, Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, Google, it almost looks like what we were seeing about a month ago, when we'd see all these other names, the San Discs and all that other world running, and the Lag 7, as they were calling them, down. [00:08:30] Speaker 1: Yeah, well, it's funny, because like, the media always has to come up with a reason why a stock does something, and they have to just like, it's like Mad Libs, you just to kind of fill in something. And I was listening to a good program this morning, and they were just kind of summing up yesterday's action, and it was like, Apple fell 1% because the vice president of Apple Pay was leaving. It's like, really, is that why the vice president of Apple Pay is leaving, it's like, holy lord, let's take, you know, however much it is, you know, $100 billion off the value. No, just, you can even say more sellers than buyers. That's, that's always going to be true. That's the analysis you need. [00:09:07] Speaker 3: Yeah, right. That's why we're here, Tim. That's why we're here to correct all that. [00:09:12] Speaker 1: Well, yeah, we do our best. Let's see, I've got just one, one last quick farewell chart here, SMH. This is the semiconductors. This is a bit of a nail biter, still is. Semiconductors are still showing strength. The line I placed here is, it got dangerously close, but it did not exceed it. And even if it did, this red line is kind of the last, the last line in the sand, but, you know, I was talking about the data desert we're heading into. But two weeks from today, two weeks and six hours, I guess, NVIDIA, that will be, that will have way more attention than the CPI did this morning. So that'll, that'll be the, the next giant mover coming this month. [00:09:57] Speaker ?: Yep. [00:09:59] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting to see, uh, the mag seven ETF mags down almost 1% while the NASDAQ is up 1%. It's a clear rotation out of mag seven and into, uh, some of those other stocks that are lifting the way or we've. [00:10:14] Speaker 1: And, and, and something just happened, nothing gigantic, but something just popped the market lower. I'm not sure what, uh, maybe they found a, a federal, federal, uh, employee in a, in a, in a catering cart or something like that. [00:10:26] Speaker 3: Yeah, I think they found Jimmy Hoffa. [00:10:28] Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. He's, he's, he's right there next to the lunch trays. So anyway, all I can say is that we are green across the board, but, um, to the one or two bears that might be out there, it could have been a lot worse. So it's okay. [00:10:42] Speaker 2: Indeed. Well, thank you, Tim. Appreciate you. Good to see you. All right, guys. See ya. Adios.