Sunday Futures + Crypto — Market Analysis, Prep, & Trade Setups — Dentoshi (8/16/26)

[00:00:00] Speaker ?: *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* [00:04:21] Speaker 1: good evening traders welcome to the sunday open i am your host craig shapiro macro strategist here at ninja trader live it is august 16th we're already halfway through august we are more than halfway through the summer my kids are back in school my summer's over um but the dog days of summer are here for many of you out there but we appreciate you being with us on this sunday night have a big show for you got a big week ahead it's options expiry this week vix expiry wednesday morning regular expiry friday expiry weeks often become turning points so we'll talk about that a little bit today a lot of macro data last week uh plenty to get into with the panel this evening quick look at the tape before we get to it uh quiet is the uh the story of the day with uh it has that a couple about 10 basis points to 30 175 russell down three bips gold touch softer big story we're going to get to the bonds the bonds have been weak uh kind of opening a touch softer again kind of in line-ish yeah and then crude crude's flat uh up six cents really 78.55 so the bonds are the big story last week big sell-off in fixed income global yields moving to the highs uh haven't seen french yields this high since 2009 german yields this high since 2015 japanese yields are moving higher uh us long end continues to sell off despite weaker than expected data last week on the inflation front and on the retail sales front so uh bonds are soft and that is going to eventually have implications for the equity market but let's get into it with the great panel that we typically have for these sunday opens sarah checking in from southwest florida pax is in chicago and farm back in the saddle in uh southwest of the country in arizona how is everybody doing on this fine sunday evening great wonderful we're doing great i think there needs to be more pep we need yeah i think none of us are excited about the training week i typically go with the diet cokes for the sunday open but i got the red bull out because it is energy time we are going to get fired up about trading this week uh because i don't know something sinister is out there when when folks are you know thinking the week ahead is going to be sleepy and nothing's going to happen and nothing's going to come out i don't know i got my eye on that i'm skeptical feel like there could be uh could be a big move but you know as we've talked about plenty of times on this show and on you know most of the shows the the gamma environment's important the expiry the time of the month is important and it's hard to make the markets uh shift uh materially in the options expiry week but uh you know positions are large and as we move through the week and positions start to roll and uh the macro data starts to to could matter and the bond market clearly um is something that's top of mind so i i don't know i think it's gonna be an exciting week i'm looking forward to getting after it even because my kids are not here so uh but my younger ones are in school my older ones are away college and uh it's time to go so let's uh let's kick it over to sarah to start the week uh sarah how are you thinking about the setup for indices here back half of uh of august uh last week was an interesting week big strength the beginning of the week a little bit of softness uh at the close on friday how are we thinking about it to start uh start this week well i won't say this often but i i uh [00:08:07] Speaker 2: i hope you're right and i'm wrong because i think i think this week is going to be really boring um we've got like no red folder news we got minutes on wednesday which is just nothing um earnings don't look too great um the s p is just sitting up at the highs my least favorite place to trade it uh let's look at the monthly chart so um es obviously has been strong this month with the new monthly candle and that hammer candle what was that two weeks ago yeah two weeks ago um nq a bit weaker still inside month so i might get more excited about the trading week if q's can take out last month's highs and that level is thirty five five three well we'll say five five four um so if we can do that then they can try to get up to all-time highs we've got rty up at the all-time highs so um again everything's kind of sitting up there the vix is dying um we're really close to 2025 lows so another reason i'm not too excited about trading i don't like trading when volatility's this low and we're sitting at the all-time highs so this is where i tend to kind of pull back and not you know chop myself up to death um well i still like gold but we can get into that later um yeah the only thing that i would be interested in trading would be nq and again if we can get above last month's highs if not i'm i'm not interested really in anything with es nq rty or ym just not too excited here nasdaq has [00:10:15] Speaker 1: been playing some catch up it had been obviously performing but it seems like it's it's you know it's starting to starting to try to drag everything higher a bit um but is that is that kind of what [00:10:26] Speaker 2: you're seeing as well i mean no it's like the red-headed stepchild like everything has hit a new all-time high this month except nq so nq's still lagging but does it have the power to propel us to to new highs can it get back to new highs you think yeah i mean it does again if we can get above last month's highs but we'll see i mean last week we were inside week most of the week except i think it was the last two days of the week and it just didn't really go anywhere and we expected last week to not be so great after the big weekly candles we got the week before so we you know we kind of knew already like you know we had big volatility two weeks ago last week not so much so we'll see what happens for this week um currently nq has opened and it's green so they're trying to take last week's highs would be what they're trying to do um and if that were to happen that's a great start to triggering the monthly reversal because that would be step one in getting up there right we would have to take out last week's highs in order to take out last month's highs so if they can do that that might be pretty cool and we could get moving somewhere yeah that's what they're trying to do currently we're an inside bar up on the four hour so they're trying to take out thirty thousand two eighty three which is last week's highs and then we'll see what they do once we get there [00:11:57] Speaker 1: yeah pax how are you uh how do you typically enter a week like this where uh you know it seems a little bit sleepy seems like we're in a transition week here not a lot of data earnings is calendar is pretty quiet there is some there is some consumer related earnings this week home depot lowe's target walmart but you know big tech doesn't report uh next week is the big week again nvidia reports next uh i believe it's next wednesday after the close so kind of a transition week here uh sleepy [00:12:26] Speaker 3: week how are you uh how are you thinking about the setup here uh well as long as the nasdaq is below thirty thousand two sixty three that quarterly pivot that i've been talking about since june june june 21st um i think it's you know i mean they're how do i want to say this um i want to be short nasdaq and uh i just sold s p at 09 quarter which is the opening print uh with the stop just above the the high and and it's just you know a short little trade to see if they're going to take out the opening prints in the high of the night 78 10. i don't know it seems like a you know a point and a half or two points seems like something worth doing on a lazy sunday night um i think you know you started off the show um by talking about the bonds and i think the bonds and the notes are the absolute most important factor of the week uh along with crude too i mean you know so who knows what kind of crazy is going to come out of the the the the the administration um and and and just so many different variables that can push us besides red folder events you know but um gold has been a great trade uh gold has been the the primary trade for me for you know the entire year and um uh we completed the swing that i talked about the i don't know the last three weeks right or four weeks at 44.92 we completed that swing or 44.93 we completed that swing last week i didn't take the short that would have been a nice short to take with a stop just above uh the 200 day moving average which is 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40. i got a chart from me i don't want to guess i think it's 40 45.04 so the short 45.08 so that the um the short the the the trade and gold right now would be to be short from there and some traders in my group are i didn't take it i'm not a good reversal trader so i normally let those reversals go past uh with the stop above the 200 day if gold gets above 45.08 then we've got another 90 into it up to 45.90 and then above that up to 47.60 which is ultimately where it wants to go in this first initial run on on the way back up to all-time highs so that would be the trade now if 44.90 holds and gold then um we get under 44.22 then we'll see last week's low which is 43.65 and then the swing completes at 43.25 if we take out 43.25 we'll be back around 40.78 pretty quickly so that's the trade um i think that the indices are going to be quiet if you look at the nasdaq and you know you put up a nasdaq and you put up a uh an s p chart side by side a daily chart they're they look like two different markets you know so so who's going to win is it the the the s p continually you know just kind of being bought every dip being bought for whatever reason they're being bought every dip is being bought and the nasdaq is lagging so does the nasdaq kind of pick up and and will it close above 30 000 260 in which case i want to be long but that's a quarterly pivot so if you make it back up there again you guys want to sell them um you can sell you can sell the nasdaq with the tight with well you know it's a right or right out trade but you know right or right out our oro you know in a swing trade this the the the right or right out stop becomes wider but if you want to take a short nasdaq that's a spot to do it you know with the tight stop just above that so i don't know there's i think it's an interesting board i don't know what the catalyst is going to be maybe going into opex at the end of the week you know which all you know you and you pointed out too rightly craig is that often they're they they not often but you know more than half the time they can be reversals you know so do we get that going into the end of the week who knows i don't know it's anybody's guess the board is interesting uh bonds of who's telling the truth is it the s p strength or is it the nasdaq weakness who's telling the truth is it bond uh weakness or is it you know or is i mean what what is going on here and you know somebody mentioned earlier uh looking at the aussie and the yen and the dollar okay i mean there's a lot of interesting things happening up here yet these dips continually be bought so i don't know it's capital preservation mode for me and you know to to look for a little bit of swings and you know i do the i repeat myself over and over again somebody accused me last week of repeating myself and i do repeat myself over and over again because i'm consistent in what i do both as a trader and as a man oh yeah right now it's all that or [00:17:07] Speaker 1: nothing i am not doing anything yeah no it makes sense i mean i think um short look it's uh you know we talk about the times of the month when macro should matter and the times the month where flows will dominate well in expiry week flows dominate and so the bar for macro and cross asset price movements to matter to the indices is reduced it's just it's harder to see the indices move away from whatever the zero data expiry crowd or wherever the positioning crowd has it and so what we've seen is is john a gentle grind up in in s p and on any other day it's nasdaq leads one day russell leads the next day relative outperformance of one versus the other uh but as we push through this week uh we start to lose a lot of that supportive positioning the window of potential weakness can reopen again next week and next week's a huge week because we have nvidia on wednesday core pce also on wednesday and then we have the warsh uh jackson hole speech on friday we also get the payroll annual revisions on friday so next week's a big uh potential big week uh i think for sure and we'll have a lot of that supportive positioning behind us and so you know feel free to move about the cabin i think is what's going to happen next week this week seems a little bit more uh potentially range bound unless we get you know big move here in the bond market and the bond market has been soft for sure uh despite all the data despite the weakening labor market despite the softer than expected inflation despite a pretty atrocious retail sales print on friday bonds are making new lows yields making highs particularly out long end of the curve we've seen a big uh big steepening in the curve so uh the long end is really starting to get nervous about a variety of different things um but farm how are you thinking about this week uh amidst everything kind of the delicate grind up yeah the delicate grind up farm uh what about the delicate grind [00:19:01] Speaker 4: there's a softball for you farm how are you thinking about the week to start to start to start things yeah looking definitely not looking forward to the grind i'm not i can't even do it i can't even do yeah i mean look i'll look at um nq is is has my attention for sure here i mean yes has really been sloppy choppy grindy it's been nasty um but constructive right i mean it's new all-time highs um and uh you know we talked about that breakout a couple of weeks ago or whatever it's sustained um there's not a lot to talk about i mean q though packs for some weird reason has 263 when clearly the level is 269 right um but uh this is the spot that that i've been kind of harping on for a couple of weeks right um i i believe if we're you know bidding this you know call it 269 from above 30 269 um it's probably gonna rip some faces off now i was gonna do that this week um you know i don't know maybe not right if if things are you know participation is low volumes are low uh but but i mean it could uh so so to me this this is a must defend for sellers up here in this 269 range my weekly levels 269 293 you know maybe a quick pop above there but like this has to be defended um or you're going to be selling them a lot higher probably looking at a retest of all-time highs and like if that breaks and goes after a multi-month balance like this then yeah you don't want to know uh where you're going to be selling them next so i believe this setup here is important whether or not um you know it plays out into any kind of juicy sexy trade this week i don't know i see the entire area sitting underneath it as incredibly strong demand um so i'm not looking to be short back down into it i mean i i'd be okay short and failure failed pushes above 269 like pax talked about i think that's okay sweep out last week's high what have you um but i have no interest in in being short uh much lower and i'll i'll drill in on that um yes again like it hasn't done anything um we've got the clean breakout it's just consolidation uh i think it's reasonable again say this to presume it's bullish consolidation for higher we got the move higher on thursday it kind of was given back but that's like so common in these summer months right you finally get a rip higher and then it just just digests um and gets a little bit flaccid after work like the bonds have been uh persistently flaccid um but so like drilling in on nq so you can screenshot the levels or whatever uh 269 to 293 remains sort of my my upside spot um it really pained me as you can imagine uh to remove oh six nine uh to 100 because i want to give fires the benefit of the doubt to about thirty thousand just call it thirty thousand to thirty thirty i've got zero zero one to twenty eight um and even down to this nine ten twenty nine nine ten to nine thirty two range so i mean if we're finding bids uh in this general range if we're clearly above thirty thousand we're fine and if dips are aggressively getting snapped up below there which i would be looking to buy um on some kind of a sweep out of friday's low or something like that which clearly that is not in the cards right now it would have been nice if we got a little weakness first um then i would be looking to get long back up to uh this 269 293 spot um you know if you look at the daily which i'm not going to pull up because it'll explode my volume profiles but i mean i mean if this goes like a big three bar up sarah on the daily then i mean it's going to look pretty good right yeah so i mean it's gonna look really really strong and you're not going to want to sell them for a while i think so this really is a big a big a big spot here for nq now if we're cleanly offering 9 10 9 32 from below um i'm looking at thursday's low on both es and nq that was kind of the breakout day um and breakout just referring to the range you know ahead of that for the week um if we're invalidating thursday's low taking that out finding traction lower then that's a pretty shitty look right um and it looks like 269 has held and in which case we can talk about some some bigger picture things i'll flip over real quick back to that i mean if we actually get through um this spot in thursday's low then you could be looking at 29 269 29 369 big picture uh we'll talk about that when we see it though um yes the spot last week uh last week i used 77.91 half to 77.95 i just tweaked it to 92 to 96 i was getting sick and tired to type in that decimal point um you know it held all week basically until that thursday ripper it's the same key spot now you've got this double distribution profile on es last week a little bit of a trap distro down at the bottom and some some shitty ass slop up here at the top but um it still holds uh so to me 92 to 96 is the key and then same thing you've got thursday's low sitting there at 85 half if we give back an offer 92 to 96 there's potential for 77.59 to 77.62 where like i mean normally i'd probably want to be swing short against this high in the summer months i see it as more likely that we come down check last week's volume point of control maybe we get to 59 to 62 and then they just buy them um and take it back up to 92 to 96 and it ends up being a sloppy show of a week um but uh you know again uh sellers have a lot to prove to me before i have really any interest in joining them uh but those are the big spots that i'm watching 92 to 96 on es is kind of the big spot that's pretty clean and then nq i'd say these two weekly levels in the area between um i would not i would not sell this spot uh with pax's ex-wife's money um but i would look to buy it i just don't think they're going to give it i mean this pisses me off that we're gapping up because i would have liked a little bit of weakness right uh so that's kind of what i'm seeing here i feel like this is setting up and again i'll just say that like on nq i think it's going to uh 701 to 744 if we get a sustained break of this uh 269 to 293 like at least um again maybe not this week but i think it's at least going there probably new highs you don't want to know what comes after that um and then if we are cleanly offering uh kind of this 29 290 i think um you know we could find our ways in theory back to last week's low maybe not this week but maybe the next week so that that's kind of my big picture take on this yeah no it makes sense uh just a another [00:25:14] Speaker 1: quick look at the tape here quiet is it remains quiet uh nasdaq up 55 to 3197 s p 7810 right where uh packs holding a little bit lower but probably uh probably got it by now uh russell up uh up two handles the bonds are flattish uh zbs i want to get to that or 108 28 crude is grinding higher up 20 bips to 82 56 and gold a little bit softer down to uh 44 31 but if you're new to the program make sure you are subscribed to the channel definitely ask us questions uh in the chat that would be uh we great we can help uh help drive the show forward with some questions i did want to uh just pull up my uh uh my table here just to give a little uh under the hood look at what's been going on amidst the uh this equity in the seas uh what are we saying grindness grindingness i don't remember the word soft flaccidness whatever it is slow but there's slow grind higher slow grind higher but there there's been dispersion for sure um and every every day it's a different story but uh best performing sector is this for month to date gold miners not surprising given the gold move we've had gdx up 21 uh xme mining up 16 arc which is uh innovation up 14 and then igv software up 10 and semis are still up nine percent for the month um lagging sector is retail down a scratch down from percent utilities and real estate staples right those are the defensive sectors that are way more yield sensitive so as bonds weaken yields move higher uh these interest rate sensitive sectors have been lagging so it's uh it's been an interesting tape for sure uh it is expiry week vix expiry wednesday fed minutes are wednesday afternoon and then regular expiry on friday so uh plenty of chance for uh reversals as we talked about earlier i did mention it is a maybe a slow week but it's not a slow week for programming content and you are going to get a lot of the sunday open crew this week we have a special edition discord conversation with deli packs and farm after the close on wednesday it's going to be wild uh at four o'clock there's going to be giveaways for that so we are very excited and then everyone needs to mark their calendars for this but sarah who we don't always get during the week is doing a special develop your edge segment four o'clock on thursday how to identify and trade reversals like a pro so definitely stay tuned mark your calendar for that it's going to be awesome to hear a little bit more about the strat and sarah will talk about it ad nauseam and you will uh you'll thoroughly enjoy that so looking forward to all that programming in what could be a slow week although i don't think it's going to be a slow week i think we're going to get some exciting news at some point this week but i did want to shift gears here a little bit if we could look at the bonds real quick packs um the softness is we've been talking about it for a while uh what are some of the key levels here you're thinking about for bonds uh that we should be mindful of and i know we could keep talking about the well when is it going to matter for equities at some point it's going to matter we don't know but [00:28:31] Speaker 3: uh how are you thinking about it well we've got uh we've got a pretty big you know like a a multi-day kind of a bottom we've got last like 108 27 108 27 108 25 and then today again just below it so and we're right at it now so in the 30 year bond we you know we've got like a a a huge uh line of support down here i i hate using those terms support and resistance yeah uh but but i'm going to because everybody else will use you know what i mean sarah every everyone else uses it i suppose i will too so 108 don't be like everybody else i try not to i really try hard not to 102 20 108 25 to 27 if that does not hold um then we'll be back down to the monthly lows of one or the uh the uh actually the recent lows 108 08 to 108 12 the lows on the air so underneath 108 25 then we're down to 108 08 and underneath there to 10704 if we take out 10704 which i suspect we do then we'll be uh you know we i i you know we we we depending on the catalyst we can be you know the bonds can be in a lot of trouble and it'll be underneath it'll be someplace underneath that that that we're going to um uh you know we're going to see the bonds really start to not just drag on the rallying equities but start to push the equities lower so i i mean i really do think that with this bond week without this bond weakness the s and b the s p would have an eight handle in it uh in fact i i don't think it i know that um if the bonds were trading at 116 the s p would be trading in the eight handle but we're not you know so we're not breaking but we're not we're not screaming higher either you know it's kind of like the it's what we used to call is the the dreaded creeping rally and i can't stand dreaded creeping rallies in the spoo's so um those are those are big levels to pay attention to 108 08 10108 25 to 27 we opened below we reclaimed it just now underneath it is going to be 10808 and then underneath that is 10704 underneath that it's anybody's guess i mean there's all kinds of support the 106 handle but i think the bonds can see kind of a you know uh uh uh you know another leg lower underneath uh [00:30:58] Speaker 2: underneath 20 october of 23 is low um yeah after 107 you got 104 and like 102. yeah i mean we can be in [00:31:07] Speaker 3: the nine handle i uh what worries me is that they can you know there's there's a lot of room underneath there and you know uh what you know something interesting that that i haven't seen i don't pay much attention to what other people are saying though um i do listen to the people that you guys have on craig and i do listen to to uh uh i i do read everything that that tracy puts out and you put out and uh and then jimmy and anthony actually sometimes i read what they put out but i always read your stuff and tracy's stuff you know last week's bond issuance last week bond bond auctions were not good you know um uh the the notes on well i think tuesday and then the 10-year on tuesday and then the 30-year on wednesday or maybe wednesday and thursday but regardless you know the the the uh um i might get this wrong but the uh the the yield on the 30-year issuance is at 25-year highs going back to 2000 that's scary or maybe it was maybe that's a 10-year and and and the uh and the 30-year was at um 2007 levels but either way it's huge and it's something that should be very concerning to to to all of us you know i mean really and eventually not only is it going to start start to drag on the rally as it is you know uh it's going to start to press us lower and you know when does that happen i don't know so many of us have gotten used to to buying the dip and you know and there's so many different forces at work but eventually you know the the the laws of monetary you know theory whatever the hell they those are are going to come into play and it's going to be a crazy trade so somebody had said earlier about uh make sure you're using hard stops um uh nobody should ever trade without a hard stop like ever i don't understand especially if you're you're you know managing money or you're a cta or something maybe i don't know but every one of us needs to have all every independent trader that's trading their own money or anybody that's trading prop money you you need to use stops you should never have a trade on without a hard stop ever like never ever not one time don't don't ever take a trade that you don't have a stop in immediately [00:33:29] Speaker 2: just please don't hey pax hey sir pax did you hear about this about equity options starting to trade [00:33:37] Speaker 3: at 7 15 a.m this monday did you see this no um equity like uh stock options you mean as if we didn't [00:33:45] Speaker 1: already have enough degeneracy in in our lives now we could do uh zero data expiry options on big tech names starting at 7 15 in the morning on monday wednesday friday so that's gonna be awesome yeah [00:34:00] Speaker 2: yeah elaine elaine was bringing up a good point in the chat room the other day like with the nano fit nano futures and um no more pdt and the options opening earlier she's like they're trying to [00:34:15] Speaker 1: take retail out take all their money well i mean go ahead the interesting thing i was just gonna say the interesting thing though too is that you know more and more folks who trade are trading you know really don't have that perspective on how some of these cross asset movements can at times really matter right there's been a whole generation of traders who would never even have to look at the bond market or obviously you know fear the bond market but you know some of us with some gray hairs remember how rising cost of capital rising interest rates rising term premiums can really become a deterrent for capital flows into equities for equity multiples and for earnings momentum so these things do matter uh at time at times and similarly for the dollar movements right there's some discussion in the chat about dollar yen this is a big week for dollar yen there's a japanese cpi on thursday night japanese pmis on friday clearly the dollar yen has been strong and there's been intervention and that intervention uh has been fleeting so i'll have to keep an eye on that too but you know bomb market movements dollar movements commodity movements do matter for equity momentum equity earnings equity multiples um and certainly matter more at certain times of the month and certain times of the year than others and we're heading into a period now as we push through august expiry where i think it's going to matter more if you look at the last three midterm elections we've had 10 pullbacks between either the high from august on august expiry or the high from september on september expiry into the midterms that's three in a row it doesn't necessarily uh make a uh an un you know a um a trend uh but three in a row is good and we're in we're in a uh we're in a midterm year and clearly there's some concern about republicans abilities to hold on to either the house or the senate and my view remains that if democrats take control of both houses you are going to see a pretty nasty equity correction because a lot of the momentum on the ai trade and the regulatory environment and capex is going to be put to a big halt and there's going to be no fiscal stimulus for next year because democrats aren't going to allow fiscal spending that goes into republican coffers and trump's not going to allow spending into democratic hands and so gridlock in this case is not going to be good because the fiscal impulse is going to be declining and so i am very concerned about environment i think as we push through this week folks are going to start to hedge more for that election outcome which will be after the october fed meeting uh but ahead of november expiry so if you're looking for hedges uh vix is cheap so now's a now's a reasonable time to think about that for uh for swing accounts but hey there's a there's a good question in there so [00:36:56] Speaker 3: uh i want to ask you craig somebody asked though about the opening range as long as rth as long as the the indices open at 8 30 central 9 9 30 then then that's where the the daily pivot would be but you know things change and evolve so if they do change and evolve i'll change and evolve with it and i'll i'll i'm not going to keep it a secret now craig somebody asked you what do you make of the ai circular financing is it a big risk or something to to watch yeah i mean we talk about [00:37:20] Speaker 1: this ai capex circularity kind of you know a lot during the uh during the morning shows with tracy and delhi and clearly um the the numbers are are staggering the amount of growth and capex and investment that's coming and the amount that's being funded or at least being backstopped by the likes nvidia and amazon and google is growing too and nvidia has really talked more about using its balance sheet to help get uh more demand off the ground so basically they're just selling chips to customers that are borrowing money for nvidia so that circularity is there eventually someone's going to have to make money selling compute and make positive roi doing this and what we're seeing now is bond investors are asking for more compensation in order to lend money to this industry right credit spreads are widening the the you know these deals are getting done but they're getting done at higher and higher cost of capital i don't think it's an imminent like we're going to crash this whole thing you know tomorrow but as the cost of capital rises that and i think that's the pressure you're seeing at the long end of the bond market you have massive supply in the ai space massive supply from uh the uh the u.s government 450 billion dollar deficit for the month of july you know spending over a billion dollars a day for the war in iran uh u.s deficits continue to grow japanese deficits are growing french deficits are really exploding which is why french yields are moving higher uh this is all the supply that comes in the long end of the bond market that's why bonds are weak so even though and you know i'm kind of reminded how farm likes to present it which is when you get price action going the opposite of what you would expect when you see data uh it's notable right and so what have we seen the data wise the last uh 10 days bad nfp bad we could then expect an inflation prince and a terrible retail sales print where are we now yields at the long end are at the highs right so the bond market is clearly trading something different it's trading supply it's trading a term premium expansion more uncertainty and that's going to matter uh at some point and it's clearly mattering for parts of the economy that are away from ai right the housing market is really grinding to uh grinding to a halt here home builders have been soft it'll be interesting this week with home depot and lowe's reporting toll also reports big home builder this week so we'll see if we get uh momentum on the housing front but things that are not uh in the ai chain are seeing higher cost of capital and that's been a big uh a big headwind so um it's gonna be uh it'll be very very interesting but i want to shift gears we did mention gold a little bit uh gold uh had been nice breakout last couple weeks kind of some sideways digestion maybe hit some key levels for you packs but sarah how are you thinking about the outlook [00:39:59] Speaker 2: here for for the gold trade um from the monthly perspective it still you know has a lot of room to the upside um i would really like to see this just be some daily corrective activity i know pax was short basically right saying short right at the high of thursday which would have nailed a nice short on thursday um but i'd prefer more upside um so we would need to take out friday's high to get up to last week's high to continue up to this this nice little pivot here at 46 27. um you can see so i don't know if you guys remember but i drew like the i call it a take action window on the monthly chart and that's basically the strat setup so it's the profit potential from the inside month and up and we're still well within that window so what that means is we we like to look for actionable signals back up to continue you know to continue you know the move up um what about silver silver has been a bit weaker um but still is in force on the month and pretty much same same scenario um i want to see this be just corrective activity or you guys like a pullback um to continue higher to this nice pivot up here so yeah that's what i would like to see um now what would negate that idea would be if we trade below last week's lows and stay below last week's lows um you'll hear farm kind of talk a lot about how like a dip below and then back up is more bullish than not a dip below and that's true that's where the liquidity is so they come down grab these lows then go up so that would be cool too to the long side um but again it would negate the thesis if we get below and stay below you know this orange line so if we stay below 63 same with gold if we dip below and stay below 43.65 that would be kind of a red flag to maybe take some profit for me on my longer term swings and then look for something else to set up um but we'll have to see so right now i prefer them take out friday's highs and continue up but again if we come in tomorrow morning and they're taking out last week's lows i'm going to have to take some profit and reevaluate yeah uh before i get to farm [00:42:46] Speaker 1: i did want to just talk to uh address sally fallen 50 28th comment about me spreading ridiculous rumors and uncertainty about the midterms but polymarket has moved its odds of the senate going blue to back above 50 percent now to 53 percent for the first time since the middle of april and democrats taking control of the house has been up near 88 for most of the year so rumors i'm not sure if i'm spreading i'm not sure if i'm spreading ridiculous uh uncertainty but i'm just kind of pointing out where betting markets are live about uh what the reality may look like in november it's not uh you know not my call here it'll be what it'll be but i think what you're seeing is a tremendous amount of ability to hedge for that outcome given uh pretty deflated vix and uh volatility out uh environment so did just want to point that out but farm how are you looking at the gold market here uh for uh back half of august [00:43:43] Speaker 4: well first of all i'll be writing a strongly worded letter to polymarket over their reporting on that matter um and second of all so i don't forget to say this um all right vix at 13.46 i buy all the vol all of it that's all i'm going to say about that you should look through uh type 13.46 into my feed um and slap it on your chart so it'll very often trade lower than that for a period of time and it's always a trap and that goes back to 2020 for me anyways um gold yeah so i may not as you know i've been very long the gold miners um i had added um some leverage uh on long on gold directly uh back a couple weeks ago uh back a couple weeks ago i did close that um up here like i mean literally everybody and their mom's been talking about um basically 4500 or something around there and then naturally you know everybody on social media was bullsperming at 4500 on gold about how amazing it was and it was going to you know 6969 or whatever so it seemed like it was a good time to take some profit there i did hedge my miners as well and so like whatever right um i agree uh with sarah you don't want to see persistent weakness below uh last week's low um it just means we're looking for a deeper period of consolidation and so there's just not much of a reason to have a whole lot of leverage on so i feel great about uh being hedged on the miners um if we're sustaining above last week's high really this 44.91 to 97 spot i know pax has a spot in there i think he said 93 maybe um then it has more meaningful upside uh and so it's gonna be a big decision point um this week i think broadly uh you can get some two-way trade and shop in between uh 43.98 to 4404 and this kind of 44.55 to 63 level um it's not very exciting to me uh to trade gold necessarily on this two-way action um but but that that to me is a big picture i think you could punch through last week's low um and like sarah mentioned i think like if you did something like coming out of 43.30s and fire hard off that reclaiming last week's low and then 43.98 to 44.04 becomes very key for me and then we start talking about working all the way back up you know this past week's range and even if it doesn't like bullish engulf the same week you could get like a two-week compound bullish engulfing candle right so you get a hammer that closes you know well inside last week's range and then you're set up for next week with you know a beautiful looking chart so i try to think about those things ahead of time um and how they might play out but for now uh i'm just hedged on that and you know happily add uh leverage back um on continuation above you know again call it 4500 just to make it easy um and i would probably be be waiting um until a bit lower uh to add back leverage on some kind of a fresh setup i'm not looking to just like immediately slap along like sarah said if we're seeing persistent weakness below last week's low is just gonna take a little bit more time um i do think it's going higher ultimately but it could afford a pullback a pretty a pretty significant pullback and still be to me reasonably constructive we talked about if i just zoom out here um this multiple multiple week range it was balancing in um so i came all the way down and back tested that seems constructive uh to me i mean we don't want to say that this week um but um if we ended up there and we ended up in some kind of a three-week balance where this week it sells a bit um and then we find uh it finds its feet back above this prior multi-week balance range i think that would be reasonably constructive and then i would be looking like next week maybe uh for some kind of opportunity to get long but for now it's it's reasonably constructive um not the worst i mean considering how strong some of this was up here how much was up there i mean you had uh as pax mentioned you had the 200 uh you had a big major uh monthly lvn up there i mean you had um now people had silly trend lines or whatever up there i'm sure as well uh there was just a lot of resistance up there and i mean this isn't that much of a pullback off uh this spot yet so i'm constructive not looking to do a whole lot with it uh for this week though i'm gonna let it show its hand and then uh and then we'll run with it yeah no that makes sense but uh uh we are uh [00:47:53] Speaker 1: wrapping up here 15 minutes 18 minutes to go and the market is quiet things are quiet kind of as we would have expected um but crude is in the move here a little bit i know there's some questions in the chat about crude so uh crude has reversed was a little bit stronger earlier now a little bit softer uh i'm sure when we speak to shy in the morning she'll remind us that the straight up her moves is still closed uh there's been some headlines over the weekend about the potential for the u.s to really push with aggressive economic sanctions on iran this week so potentially could get some headlines i think one thing to keep an eye on there would be if the u.s actually did employ secondary sanctions on china uh and started to really get more aggressive on china's ability to uh procure iranian oil i'm not sure that they're going to do that in light of the trump g meeting next month uh but that could be something that moves the oil price uh it seems like fighting between israel and hezbollah in lebanon has resumed and then there was a headline a couple minutes ago this may have been part of why crude reversed as iran and oman appear close to a deal on managing the strait but the u.s which is not part of the talks wants unrestricted passage restored so who knows exactly uh where things sit there but refined product pricing remains quite elevated and uh inflationary um expectations remain firm because it doesn't seem like we're going to get much in the way of a resolution anytime soon but sarah how are you positioning or thinking about the oil market here or energy stocks or um the setup for crude as we head [00:49:36] Speaker 2: into the back half of august um the energy stocks are much more uh well how how would i just eat have been easier to trade than crude i feel like crude's just kind of been stuck sideways not doing much whereas like last week energy stocks all rallied pretty nicely um again i still as far as futures trading goes i wouldn't be personally touching crude um for a couple reasons obviously the headline risk and then we're still an inside month and we're halfway through the month already so i feel like like barring any crazy news if crude is going to move it's probably going to be next month so like you know hopefully we would just close as an inside month this month and the next month maybe go inside and up or inside and down but i don't really see that happening this month with only two weeks left um also just it's like farm just said vix is really down there um volatility is really slowing down um i just don't like crude i would much rather trade oil or not oil sorry gold right i always like me i know i always screw up gold silver and oil i don't know what it is but dick's lexical yeah i'd rather be in gold than [00:51:09] Speaker 1: oil but now you could also trade these energy single stock futures which we uh had a good interview last week with cme folks and volumes are volumes are grinding in there they're they're coming in there so we'll keep we'll keep talking yeah they're they're on the lower side but they're they're starting to pick up a little bit and obviously nvidia and apple are are amongst the the largest names there that are trading with some some volume exxon chevron conoco uh do have uh single stock futures and exxon has micros so we'll keep an eye on the volumes as they develop there so you know we'll start to introduce and sprinkle some of that uh that flavor into the sunday open once we get uh get more volumes going but pax are you uh are you interested in crude here either way no um now crew no not not not until [00:51:59] Speaker 3: not until no not here yeah i want to be long crude uh i'd like to see 87 50 again and then 93 30. uh but you know i i if if the i i haven't traded any of the oil stocks if the oil stocks are easier to trade then trade those um in crude you know if you're not if you don't have hard stops and for whatever you're doing you're going to get killed anything can happen in crude at any time um you know we start bombing the out of tehran again or you know iran god forbid you know the whatever i mean you know this war is going to get worse before it gets better i think um just my opinion so you know who knows what's going to happen with with uh with with crude i certainly don't want to be shorted not not with what's going on in the world [00:52:45] Speaker 1: uh nothing lies there yeah what about you farm any uh keeping crude on the board or [00:52:51] Speaker 4: kind of uh falling by the wayside a bit no i'm with sarah the the equities have been a much better trade than crude and it's just such a headache trading crude right with the 69 ceasefires and 420 piece deals i just can't do it uh personally and it is kind of stock like she mentioned uh inside here so i just i'm not interested personally um i wouldn't mind seeing the 70 80 80 spot again um and see how it behaves there if sellers can't get back through last week's low i do find it interesting um that sellers weren't able to to dedicate this early week move last week it's um you know this little bit of a taper in thin volume here is interesting to me and maybe you know some of the interest in stepping on this repeatedly for whatever supply glut theory people seem to have maybe that's wearing off a little bit and this can just kind of grind higher but for now in terms of price action just very little interest for me at all yeah last look um for us at the tape here before [00:53:49] Speaker 1: we transition over to the crypto closeout with trader mean and ponzi trader at the top of the hour where we'll get to all things crypto but again quiet s and ps are 78 10 quarter nasdaq up 20 bips 32 05 vix is a little bit stronger we'll keep to keep an eye on the vix it is vix expiry on wednesday morning russell a little bit of underperformance 30 75 80 cents last accrued is basically back to flat gold is essentially flat bonds are not really doing much here up two ticks to 108 29 so not a whole lot really here for uh for market moving which isn't surprising because it's been a kind of a quiet uh a quiet news weekend and potentially quiet news week uh but we have a lot of uh programming as i mentioned earlier so just a reminder to folks to set your calendars for the great discord discussion that's coming up wednesday afternoon with deli packs and farm uh will be a ton of giveaways hopefully there'll be some calf t-shirt giveaways i know farms excited about maybe giving some of those away i don't know if ferragamos are being given away but maybe we could talk up to the budget department about that so we're really excited for that great discussion on our discord channel definitely if you haven't signed up for that uh please do a lot of commentary uh delivered throughout the day from all the traders and i do a live uh a live channel there as well where i'm posting my thoughts on markets and on macro throughout the trading day too so definitely uh sign up for that and then on thursday afternoon a develop your edge segment with the one and only sarah very excited about that how to identify and trade reversals like a pro so you'll get some more insight on the strat and how to profit from it and how to prosper trading it and so when we talk about it every sunday you'll know what the hell is going on that's going on and i'm just going to talk about that and i'm just going to talk about that and i'm just going to talk about it and i'm just going to talk about it and i'm just going to talk about that and i'm just going to talk about it and i'm just going to talk about it and i'm just going to talk about it a little bit before that if it's been quiet and slow in traditional finance it's been even quieter and worse uh potentially in in crypto land uh sarah any uh any key insights here on the bitcoin price or any other crypto uh securities that you tend to uh tend to watch um i watch bitcoin ethereum solana [00:56:22] Speaker 2: and ripple for the most part um but it's just you can see it's still just sideways sideways sideways um how many weeks one two three four five six we are a double inside week this week with the new candle starting the new weekly candle starting in one hour and eight minutes it's looking a lot closer like it's going to trigger inside and down so i don't know how down but it probably at least to there but we'll see what let me look at a different time frame yeah i mean it looks like we're going to get some downside soon but if we can't take out this low down here we're not really going to go anywhere we're just going to stay chopping around in this range uh this is the two-week chart because it's it's dead it's just dead out here everything's inside except for xrp that's still going to the lows um so yeah bitcoin just it's just not doing anything currently so nothing really to speak on there we'll have to see what happens in the next couple of weeks few weeks [00:57:41] Speaker 1: yeah it didn't it didn't make the move that gold made um so if there were folks who are thinking uh the gold move had something to do with money printing or um you know eventually more liquidity bitcoin typically uh would benefit from that environment and so far it really really hasn't it seems to be lagging this gold price reversal uh pax are you are you monitoring the bitcoin that we talked to kind of not interested but other levels where uh it does get interesting if we get above 69 000 i'll buy some [00:58:11] Speaker 3: more if we get below if we get 250 or 51 i'll buy some more and pitch them under 49. outside of that i i'm i'm really not paying any attention to it yeah what about you farm i i mean sarah kind of said it [00:58:24] Speaker 4: right it's just really choppy sloppy uh doing absolutely nothing inside i want to see before i'm interested i i should probably just set an alert for that june 15th high uh and that uh was that july 1st low i want to see one of those taken because neither side has shown any strength um and so i'd at least like to see one side get uh offsides right and then potentially consider a reversal um and just widen out a bit of a broadening formation there because right now both sides sucks i suck i have no interest in joining either uh so show me some kind of meaningful failure from either the bulls or the bears and then i get interested i probably would prefer to get long um on a sweep of these lows even though they've just done it so many times um i like the area around 57 57.5 but it would have to it would have to reclaim right i'm not long on continuation below this low yeah oh i mentioned [00:59:16] Speaker 1: it mentioned this earlier but pat um i was just looking back in the chat i wanted to address that there was another comment uh which i thought was interesting from isaac nk who said there was a bet about the return of jesus to better to trade es to be honest i did want to point out that the odds according to polymarket of jesus christ returning before 2027 are two percent so pax i know you're a man of faith uh how are you feeling about those odds for the return of jesus uh in in this year at two percent it seems like you know not a bad place to uh this year i you know i hope it doesn't happen [00:59:49] Speaker 3: this year i'd like to you know but it's it'll happen just i wish we can i wish we can buy some [00:59:55] Speaker 1: long dated options on it you know i'm looking at this 65 million has traded in this contract uh for for polymarket here for the return of jesus uh um before 2027 so not a lot of time left here um but a pretty uh pretty hefty uh pretty hefty odds i don't know i don't know what the world's going to look like uh jesus comes back in 27 so that's going to be uh that'll be pretty uh pretty wild you know we were [01:00:21] Speaker 3: talking we were talking before the show about um you know about the dollar and you know the changes going on in the world this this whole you know everything is sitting on a razor's edge you know civil civil civil peace civil strife civil unrests this war you know i mean we we've got koreans fighting in in ukraine and there's rumors of russia and china helping iran you know are we in a are we in the beginning of a global war or you know or or is the president playing 4d chess you know okay um i it just everything is very precarious and and you know what what seems like a very uh good time and a happy time you know for for those of us that have the means you know uh what lurks beneath you know what what is what is what is rumbling you know for for better than 50 of of our population i don't think it's all that good so you know i'm uh um i'm prepared for any eventuality you know and and if jesus comes back well you know i i'm you know i i hope i'm ready i don't think i'm ready today but i'm you know hopefully i like me you know i have an hour or two to get ready well you'll be more [01:01:37] Speaker 1: prepared than most yeah which is uh which is important but you're right i mean look it's uh we live in an interesting time and markets are you know you know very complacent i'd say here if you go back over history the amount of times where we've seen market uh consternation between the middle of august and the end of october and this year i take that one week more because of the election um it is you know that this is typically the time for volatility uh if you look at all the seasonal you know charts of of the vix and volatility middle of august through middle of october is your more bullish time for volatility uh it's also typically your time for bond market weakness uh more supply comes in from treasury more concern about the end of year budget and some of the strains that are happening there and the treasuries need to finance uh laughing last week was a record amount of bills issuance last week in addition to those auctions which we talked about earlier so um and as we return to work after labor day typically corporates are selling more bonds uh so expect more ig investment grade bond issuance probably expect more equity issuance i know there's some talk over the weekend about anthropics news uh and potentially push towards profitability we're going to get an anthropic ipo most likely in the third quarter of you know probably the biggest ipo that we've seen could you know could be as big as what spacex did so a lot of supply coming both in bonds and equities and this typically has the ability to slow down market momentum um so we got to definitely keep an eye on on those dynamics but uh farm i'll hand over to you for the last word last joke or last whatever uh as we you know before we kick it over to the crypto guys uh at the top of the hour yeah no i mean online [01:03:22] Speaker 4: your uh your line about hedging i mean i'm gonna have a real struggle you know making a decision what to do if we've got you know say 30 269 is bid and we're trading through and higher above there and i get that you know vix 13 46 what do i do um you know but i'm long and that's what hedges are for right it's not a directional short um but um you know if nq is still trapped below 30 269 we get vix 13 46 or so um i will definitely be well hedged in that situation but i mean again to me for now it's a hedge there's nothing remotely resembling a meaningful short on the indices just yet or at least not a yes um we've got a long way to go for that so i mean it's it's pretty rare that things come out of absolute nowhere but it does happen right so when it's cheap when it's as cheap as it is getting um i think it it makes sense to do that and i'm getting prepared to do that maybe this week we'll [01:04:14] Speaker 3: see you know uh uh um to follow up on that it is rare that the unexpected happens but when it happens people blow up their lives you know that not only your accounts but their lives i've seen it you know in 2000 i saw it in 08 i saw it in the flash crash in in 2010 i saw it again in 16 i saw it again in 18 i saw it again in 20 i saw it in 22 in the inflation trade last year too so yes yeah you know like that happens you know very very rarely but when we get when we get a reversal out of nowhere or we get something out of nowhere we have to be prepared for it [01:04:50] Speaker 4: if people think you're a bear for putting a hedge on like you put on a hedge so you can stay long very bullish thing to do 100 right yeah 100 well put all right guys always a pleasure hanging out with [01:05:04] Speaker 1: you on sunday evenings hope everybody enjoys the week uh good luck trading this has been the sunday open let's kick it over to trader mean and ponzi trader for the crypto closeout let's get cracking [01:05:30] Speaker 5: hello hello back what's up man how are we man good man how are you i'm doing good it's another smoky sunday up here in western canada wildfires raging still been a bit of a bummer but we're making do i'm just staying inside like i normally do yeah nothing new yeah nothing new nothing new but uh honestly i mean they alluded to this in the previous segment crypto is doing a whole bunch of nothing so if there's ever been a time to touch grass i do think it's right now um i know there's a lot of people who have been talking about the bottom being in it's time to lock in well i do think we're close time wise price wise sure um bitcoin is like a few points off of where it was at the start of june so you could have been staring at this thing you might as well have been watching paint dry now i know you're a little bit more plugged in on chain is it as active as people are making it out to seem or has it just been so dead that any activity seems like a lot of activity it is honestly been pretty lit i'm [01:06:37] Speaker 6: not even gonna lie at least for me in the last 24 hours a week ago i was crashing out because i kept taking loser trades on chain and then i caught this coin yesterday this like bull coin from china some meme and i'm having fun with it again besides that i i really haven't been uh trading too much crypto the only thing i was long was pump and i'm starting to close it because it looks no pullbacks on pump [01:06:58] Speaker 5: man just straight vertical i think this will be the pullback um i just i just don't want to round [01:07:05] Speaker 6: trip it but it's probably gonna do something like this before higher um i think it's really just gonna do what lighter did and chop around these areas so yeah i kind of agree with you there i think this is [01:07:21] Speaker 5: it's swept out that h12 high and this is like the smallest pump after a pullback probably a good place [01:07:27] Speaker 6: to de-risk some no i'm just taking it all off dude i'm i've just been the round tripper of the last 12 months and like the last 70 days i haven't been round tripping and it's felt really good so i'll stick to [01:07:41] Speaker 5: not round tripping you know what i mean i mean i don't know what you mean but i know that that's basically your life so um you also got a lot going on irl man i'm looking forward to is the new vlog out yet or is it still being edited it's currently being edited i'm hyped i've seen some of the clips i think it's gonna be pretty sick man yeah i'm excited for that one cool so i mean we can talk about because we also have uh dentoshi coming on in a bit here which is gonna be awesome um but yeah we can talk a little bit about bitcoin i mean overall i i honestly am very much in line with our prior segments hosts in that like you know if we can put in a higher high i kind of have 67.5 is my level he mentioned 69k not far off there get above there then you know okay that's actually some bullish market structure above this high here maybe uh that means we're going to trade up into this range somewhere if at all but if we just keep consolidating around here i'm actually leaning towards more downside i do think we'll get that other wipe i think one of the things that happens in crypto when you have these like really long consolidation periods is other than people on twitter just going stir crazy um people get complacent and they assume sideways is bullish it's going to go up the bottom must be in when you know the longer goes sideways i actually think it's the weaker it is uh so i would be surprised if we end up you know starting september maybe with some downside i don't know [01:09:07] Speaker 6: dude i would hope so honestly i'm currently long bcc but i'm very close to giving it up i just wanted like mid 62s up to like 67 68 but it's just it's so painfully boring to stare at these positions um you saw drunkenmiller has now put on a per position which is the dat for hyperliquid i did see that now [01:09:30] Speaker 5: cool fact about drunkenmiller i think he went 30 years without ever posting a losing year including coming out positive in 2008 um it is quite funny like this kind of ct zeitgeist conversation going on right now where it's like oh traders are the new celebrities and i was like but like really good traders have always been kind of celebrities like there's so many goaded traders i mean you can go back to like jesse livermore uh that have been celebrities and well-known figures for a very long time i think they're more talking about kind of like the intersection of online culture and trading is becoming a little bit more of a blurred line whether you're a streamer an e-commerce guy or a trader if you're doing social media you know you can gain a following but i don't think trading is the is the differentiator i think what people are realizing is if you're young and have a bunch of money and post on [01:10:23] Speaker 6: social media people will follow you yeah speaking of which i don't know if you've noticed but julian patrol is has been afk for eight months what do you think he's doing do you think he has some sort of [01:10:37] Speaker 5: because i mean he's been doing the thing that the tjr types do right you build this brand then you monetize your audience but he's never monetized anything no he's not i don't think he needs to because he's already you know breaded but i to me i mean at the very least he's just got like unbelievable connections now and network he wants to get into a private sale you know pre-ipo stuff he can just tweet post on instagram what do you think he's cooking you have any insights no no but i i was [01:11:05] Speaker 6: bringing that up because i was more concerned over the fact that he may have gotten wrench attacked urban a target for something i mean he's just ghost or the better case is that he just doesn't want the limelight anymore um so well that's you know that's morbid yeah i thought you were gonna have something cool fresh yeah yeah nothing good there um have you been putting on any other positions in the last 10 days [01:11:33] Speaker 5: have you traded anything any stocks i shorted uh up at the highs here i might short it some more if it doesn't look any better anytime soon i caught a bit of this counter trend balance on some of the memory stuff basically like once leopold got washed i think a lot of this stuff was like a pretty easy mean reversion long so like micron bloom energy sandisk this is like i know this the w stands for weekly i know you never go this high time frame but this is like you know for us us who have uh got a little bit of patience not that same fast twitch add brain but this is like a pretty clear setup to me you have this big weekly washout i mean some of this stuff went down like 50 percent right into the kind of original impulse of the move you get a nice swing failure pattern so i played a mean reversion on a couple of these things but i closed everything so i'm i'm effectively flat on most equities outside [01:12:27] Speaker 6: of just kind of my standard uh what about you i did the same i i caught nbis te sandisk at the lows actually my my average entry is 152 on nbis i closed it last on friday at 270 and now i'm starting to short it because i'm going to treat this as uh you know euthanasia coaster just like a vault taper until something happens i'm not going to sit here and call it the forever top but it would just be a picturesque lower high from this point like the risk reward makes a lot of sense in my opinion if momentum rolls to average into about 285 stop above the highs go for something like that so i'm playing that um [01:13:14] Speaker 5: i like i like the idea of kind of sideways on some of these memory ai semi names into the end of the year now this might be a good learning moment for some people when you're shorting something that is effectively stop loss at all-time high do you use a hard stop or are you doing some sort of candle close system where it's like okay you know it can trade above the high but it has to get back below or is that a hard stop like we get above all-time high you're out no i'll have a hard stop like a pretty [01:13:41] Speaker 6: dramatic hard stop for example in case of something crazy because i've played the no hard stop before and been smoked on something ridiculous but generally it's it's a it's a mental stop because i'm totally aware of what can happen like this you know just to sweet sweet so my goal is to like keep adding like this position is one-tenth of the size it will be so that it ends up almost being the highs but if it starts to roll before then and i see a slowdown in momentum and you know price before then which it doesn't look like it's going to give me it looks like it's probably going to blast straight up to the highs but come monday if we see any sort of you know momentum roll um it might i'll have to i might have to either chase it or you know uh average and higher so i played by ear it's not a hard stop it's a hard stop in case of an uh-oh but um it's more of a mental note of what price looks like at the highs [01:14:39] Speaker 5: yeah i totally understand i do i do a similar thing i think early on most traders should operate with hard stops only i don't think um having a mental stop is something you should do until you've built the discipline callus necessary to actually commit to a mental stop because it's very easy to be like well i'll just let it go a little higher and i mean we've all been there you're like i'll just short a little more add a little more next thing you know you're just absolutely so disgustingly underwater and then it's like oh i'm trapped uh and uh that's how they really get you so i wonder if leopold had a hard stop or no stop at all from the stuff i've read so far it sounds like um very little risk management i had been figured out because it's just like oh this just is going to go up forever we're in from so low but the moment you mix in leverage i mean everything changes so i want to talk a little bit about what i think is one of the biggest stories coming out in crypto over the last two weeks we had cold card get hacked we had trezor release customer information and now i think today it was safe pal also with a leak um so for those of you that might be trad fi holdovers um trezor in cold wallet or cold card are our hardware offline wallets uh safe pal is that also a hard while i think they're a hot i've never used it well i don't even yeah they're not nearly but trezor is like number one number two one a one beat a ledger like this is the de facto hardware wallet that people use when you say hey i don't want my thing connected to the internet i only want to be able to approve transactions if i have the physical device on me and it's supposed to be the epitome of um self-custody now the issue that you have is not necessarily the actual wallet itself it's the company that you're dealing with because you bought that thing online uh maybe you ordered it on amazon they have a third-party logistics company who's fulfilling the orders and so what happened with trezor is basically over the last 90 days anyone who had bought a trezor had their name address phone number and email linked now you might say well it's not a big deal i don't have any money on that trezor your information now where you live your name your email address is now on the dark web meaning at best you're probably going to get phished meaning fake phone calls emails so be very careful with any links that you click at worst there could be bad actors out there who now know that you have a trezor meaning you probably have crypto and they know where you live so some best practices anytime you're ordering anything crypto related never order it to your house ever never order it to your house use a po box use a business you can order something to a coffee shop your place of work anywhere but your own home your place of work is probably not a great idea either because you go there but somewhere that is not your home where you live that is like 101 opsec don't do that phone number doesn't have to be real you can absolutely use a fake phone number when you're filling out these types of orders oftentimes you can even get away with a fake name or a name that's not exactly yours and also almost one of the most important things is you should not be using your like regular email that you depend on uh or that you use for other crypto financial services to uh receive orders about crypto products you want to try and bifurcate and compartmentalize as much of this stuff as possible have dummy emails you can create burner emails create additional emails use single emails for single websites it sounds annoying self-custody is really cool in some ways but it's also a massive responsibility and where i'm going with this is back in my day way way back in my day you didn't have a choice like you basically had to self-custody your assets and your private key might have been a piece of paper uh that you use to log in your wallet on a website now we have all sorts of hot wallets cold wallets but we also have things like etfs where you can get crypto exposure without actually having to own the crypto we have um as well uh custodians like qualified custodians that you can use with multi-sig to secure your coins in a way where the responsibility is no longer on you to keep that piece of paper with your seed phrase to store your ledger correctly or to just have really really poor shitty opsec um so if you've been affected by that you're starting to get some sketchy emails make sure you're always checking the domain where that email came from no website's ever going to ask for your private seed phrase and just be careful out there [01:19:30] Speaker 6: where do you uh you know this is since we're talking about it already where do you currently keep all of your bitcoin um and like what time are you not there yeah um i i i no longer do self-custody [01:19:47] Speaker 5: and i no longer keep a lot of money in crypto uh specifically over the last year i've off-boarded a bunch um i just don't have the need i understand if you're new in this game and you're actively trying to trade and move and shake you want to have access to your money to be able to get in and out of coins you're trading on chain once you get to a certain level certain place in your life you no longer want that risk or stress so i work with a multi-sig company um and i work with kraken right uh i mean at the end of the day there are always risks with centralized exchanges i can speak from experience with ftx but of the centralized exchanges that are out there i don't trust any more than i trust kraken i know the ceo uh so if anything happens i'll just show up at arj's house uh so yeah i use kraken i use a multi-sig and honestly i've moved a lot of money out of crypto completely um you know into the bank uh where i can do other things with it but if you're curious start exploring other options if you're nervous like you can hold etfs within your tax deferred accounts right you can have a bitcoin etf hyperliquid etf in your rrsp or your 401k now that growth is tax deferred as well as having that crypto exposure so as crypto becomes more mainstream so you have a lot more optionality [01:21:01] Speaker 6: all right enough of the you know risk-free speaking let's talk about alternative coins and nfts are they back no but it's time actually it's actually time for us to bring on our you still have your punk i just bought another one um coming on 7 15. let's bring on let's bring dentoshi on and hear what she has to say probably the best female trader ever sorry sarah how are you dentoshi it's been so long [01:21:32] Speaker 5: yeah it's been a minute it's been a minute let's get [01:21:41] Speaker 7: oh that people are talking but the pauses are way longer in between and i completely understand like you said before main touching grass is definitely the theme of the month so far [01:21:53] Speaker 6: yeah what have you so have you been trading for the last since i don't know a year since i last saw you i see you on on twitter posting some setups but what's been your bread and butter so i trade in sprints [01:22:05] Speaker 7: i would say there was a period like end of may beginning of june where i was trading a lot because yeah circumstances i mean of course relative to a real bull market it was still nothing but you know for what we have had the past years this was like um in my opinion the best circumstances for me as a momentum trading a trader so i did like a lot of trading then but then it's kind of like cooled down again and now i've basically been doing nothing besides buying a little bit of hype around 52 but it's more like longer term i'm hoping to scale much lower down or much lower i don't want to upset any people but hopefully somewhere in the 40s but no i mean look at these charts they're just flat lined right if this was like a heart rate monitor uh they would be dead basically yeah that's the best way to put it honestly yeah i wish it was better but i think um you know this is necessary for um any better times to um to come and personally hoping i mean i don't want to say like too strongly down but i'm hoping for down and down would make the most sense to me if we would go up from here i wouldn't yeah i would have to see how to trade that bidding anywhere lower down would make the most [01:23:26] Speaker 5: sense to me now what do you guys think well yeah we i think we're aligned i i'm curious den because i know you use i know you're momentum traders but you you use emas and things like that is there any like high time frame confirmations that you look at for the bottom being and i think there's a lot of conversation with you know big twitter accounts like ansoms of the world who are like the bottoms in already i personally want to see some form of like at least weekly or maybe even like the three-day to put in a higher high which it hasn't done yet right now i mean you could argue the three-day high is at like 67 some people might say it's not until 82k that's pretty far from where we are now is there some sort of ema cross high time frame ema that you're looking for where it's like you know pretty consistent for being close to the bottom being in for sure i mean i will say of course they [01:24:18] Speaker 7: are lagging it's the the always the disclaimer that i have to uh disclaim right that they're lagging indicators but i will say they do pretty well when it comes to confirming even though it's often because they're lagging a little bit later on but you can see here with the purple one which is basically the short-term trends they're here in the top left corner their value is displayed and we can see here um in 2023 bottom that it did a really good job of like kind of you know reclaimed and then the flip ultimately a little bit of a deviation but they stayed kind of like in the right order and then from there we just went and we never even like had any fake outs with the ema order which is really good and now of course we are in a very bearish um environment as you can see and i think now also this current potential rejection we're doing now i mean a weekly is about to close soon i mean i'm usually not awake during this hour so it's actually fun to watch but i will say this weekly that's about to close is not really looking super nice with you know the engulfing situation kind of i would say the ultimate confirmation will be flipping this wherever it is at the moment what we usually see like we had in 2023 is that it will become a little bit more compressed when we're attempting that reclaim right now they're still really far apart so it doesn't look like we're getting there yet in my opinion so what i would like to see is that they get closer together on the weekly time frame and then we attempt a reclaim and then that switch of the order it seems uh not close like i said in time and then of course we can zoom in even more and look on the daily and we can see that we have the exact same circumstances there it's a bearish order we're below them we're you know um respecting them as resistance perfectly which is not really what you want to see in a trending environment to the upside obviously it seems more trending to the downside yeah yeah same situation here you want to see a reclaim retest and a switch of order but we're just not there at all so yeah my gut says um chop and or down and if we can do like the confirmation to the upside i'm all for it but it's not here right now you know have you been uh partaking in any of the on [01:26:51] Speaker 6: you know the on-chain trench activities for the last 30 days since the cash cat fiasco i was not but i [01:26:58] Speaker 7: was hurt because i made a little bit of a cash cat uh scenario for one of my friends two times no way and it was perfect but i didn't trade it no you did right i saw you uh yeah i did i did well [01:27:14] Speaker 6: yeah it was it was fun um but i mean obviously it's the euthanasia coaster didn't last long we're not really doing anything fun now with it um you know the guys who are doing well on chain are just the guys who have realized that taking profit makes the most sense when things are really high and not rotating yeah the rotators have been murdered i got i was getting brutalized rotating through all these different narratives like the last five days and then last night i caught somewhere two days ago i caught something fun um but yeah i mean it's just it's a it's a solved changed game honestly it feels like it feels like poker felt in probably 2010 to 2015. poker went from like people playing to computers playing and the tooling has just changed the game completely it's no longer it's just way more efficient in the in a sense but still very predatory very pve there's no new liquidity [01:28:16] Speaker 7: there's no new narrative there's no fresh money no new money nothing is thinking yeah that's what one of my friends said the other day as well with just the narratives in general that it feels very stale like everything that is pumping even a little bit it's like sure you know but does it feel like a fresh narrative not really and i think just some of this these charts that are kind of attempting i think like vvv is a good example it's just so everything's so weak you know this should be like in a good market this really test the first retest of the one day 200 ema is usually like a golden opportunity and we can see here like sure you know it did provide a move but it wasn't any move that had like sustained momentum or continuation so in that sense it's just kind of boring you know but then some random things like link uh start doing a little bit of a gap fill but yeah it's just not um anything in particular that i'm really taking paying attention to it feels too much rotation yeah i think there's um i think [01:29:28] Speaker 5: there's just unfortunately like you said no new money in this it's just the same hot ball of money and there's a lot of people who are incentivized to try and get people to participate in the market because they need people to extract money from because there's no new money coming into the market right now i'm an old person i'm very like anti a lot of this on chain stuff to what to what ponzi said i think it is very very predatory and i think a lot of the people who are the predators are the same people telling people that it's you know the place that they're gonna go get rich it's like encouraging some guy who doesn't know how to play poker to come play at a table full of pros and everyone knows that like oh that's the fish like that's who we're all gonna go after so such a good analogy yeah i think you just got to be very very very careful because there are the people who are most likely telling you that the trenches are back are also the ones who are most financially incentivized for the trenches to be back or for the very least for you to come and waste your money there not saying that you can't make money there of course uh but i do think to what ponzi said again it's not like the uh binance chain casino anymore where you could just throw a dart and like maybe you get lucky i mean maybe you do but a lot of these coins are like traded like a computer like there is a game being played by a very small group of people who know exactly what they're doing and if you don't um i think the odds are really stacked against you um but hey you know you can't win the lottery without buying a ticket i guess correct for sure [01:31:00] Speaker 7: but i but i think at this point um it feels really important to protect capital like of course no one wants to blow it before the real stuff starts right and i think that for me as someone who's been in markets um for a while now and you guys as well there is definitely an intuition that's been built up where it's kind of like i guess you guys got balls tingling that you've you feel that there is like a wave in a market that you can successfully ride and you feel like call to it and it's not the call of like you know someone who wants to you know go and get some dopamine but you actually feel like this is something that makes sense for my system and i feel like maybe ponzi for you the cash cats situation was that because that is very much like what you do for me that was how it was the end of may i felt like these are exactly the charts that work for me and right now i'm like not seeing any of those so i'm just trying to stay put and of course like for hype like i said i did buy a little bit um not the lows even though it was my plan but i um waited for a little bit of this confirmation i'm expecting to potentially be a little bit underwater on this um but for a good uh goal of you know having more exposure lowering down and maybe swinging it a little bit into uh well ponzi's balls are always [01:32:22] Speaker 5: tingling i've told him to go to a doctor about that he refuses to listen he's like no it means there's opportunity i was like or um you know testicular something wrong with you 50 50 50 exactly i i'm with you on hype i'm i'm super bullish on hype long term i would love for your for your levels i would love to buy it sub 50 i don't know if we get there but if we do like as close as i can get to 40 i think you just you get as much as you can anywhere in this box happy yeah absolutely if it makes one more low i would love that but you again like let's let's assume before right we had the same situation [01:33:05] Speaker 7: of a crazy up run and then everyone's saying it's never gonna go down and then we went all the way back to 20 or whatever this yeah this was like depressing for those people you know and i think this doesn't look that different if you look at it structurally also with emails i can totally see some sort of deviation here especially with um the emas now going so sideways and the whole market's kind of like i mean this situation eat you gotta admit it looks a lot like this no totally like yeah sure it can be saved but we're not doing it right now like i'll believe it when i see it but right now there's like nothing that makes me assume that it's gonna be saved completely agree things kind [01:33:50] Speaker 6: of look really cooked right now but it's weird because everybody's kind of consensus for lower and that i i know we have some sort of cognitive bias on what consensus means because we're around some pretty sharp individuals but this is the most and then we'll do this early with you because we were going to do this at the end of the show anyways but something that we ask all of our guests and we will 100 hold it against you and make fun of you if you're wrong and then forget about you if you're right but you you know plus or minus some what would you say is going to be the absolute bottom on btc and [01:34:26] Speaker 7: when oh when do we have the next big fed decisions it's september right september 16th yeah yeah okay i would say lower but not as low as everybody thinks i think that might be like the the up because i do agree with you the consensus is a little bit scary um even with the retarded people they also have consensus at this point it's like if everyone's agreeing it's getting weird no yeah okay let's say um [01:35:05] Speaker 5: 50.9 50.9 i like yeah i like it front running the low yeah front running the low maybe because i i know [01:35:15] Speaker 7: that we did that i think we did that on eth no one time where i was like front running the low yeah something like that yeah that could happen yeah and you think it'll be this year 2027 yeah i uh this year is 2026 yeah 2026 that's what i said i said that um so i would say around the fed decision not sure if before or after but let's say mid mid september to beginning of october that's not that far away [01:35:46] Speaker 6: guys so we haven't had a single guest on this show that has said anything different and it's been how many weeks that's yeah 15 15 weeks yeah every single guest has said something very similar and we are on the same page maine and i say the same thing every week so it that's why i go back to the consensus consensus consensus thing it's weird um are we all gonna be right i mean yeah you gotta ask [01:36:15] Speaker 7: yourself how how many people do you think that this team of consensus consists of that would be my question because i'm just thinking because uh to me personally i don't look at my following or my for you tab on x rarely i have like a curated list you guys are both in it it's like 40 40 people something like that so yeah i would say that in my very small bubble a lot of people are saying the same even though you have some people that think we have bottomed around us i believe but i think most people are kind of having this scenario where it's either like sideways reclaim this was it or it's like one more step down sideways reclaim i think those are like the two scenarios that's um [01:37:02] Speaker 5: it's time based or it's one more low and i i think an interesting counterpoint to you there ponzi about consensus one to a dent said we're in a bit of an echo chamber right because we're talking to other people who are like actively monitoring the market the counterpoint to that is you have ansem who's arguably the biggest voice of crypto twitter um who's you know kind of breaching into the mainstream who is very vocally bullish and if you look at his engagement the followers he's gaining month over month uh you know the people who are engaging with his stuff commenting under his stuff um you know he's riled them up into you know the bottom's already in you know the low is in on solana the low is in on bitcoin so it's just so that's one of the problems i guess with like trying to trade the what everybody thinks is who's everybody how do we determine who's everybody and how is that actually actionable but actionable but i do think it's very important i think from a timing perspective too i mean september to december is in line with the four-year cycle i think a lot of people are impatient wanting the bottom to be in yet and it absolutely could be but there could just be another couple months of chop right another month another two months of just sideways and that can oftentimes be as painful [01:38:17] Speaker 7: as another move down flatline yeah who knows right this could be that that sideways yeah for sure i think it's hard to predict because um you know the macro effect that yeah the effect that macro has on our markets these days um is so big and then we have trump of course was very unpredictable as well um so it will depend a lot on that but on the other hand will also haven't been correlated to es which makes new all-time high after new all-time high yeah yeah it is it it's definitely been painful i mean for you you trade equities right so i assume you had some good uh i some good i didn't think it was gonna [01:39:04] Speaker 5: stay bullish for this long i actually thought the top was in all the way back in like january when we had that you know kind of correction it went down like 10 or 15 percent um we were in like the high sixes right it cracked 7k and then it pulled back to like 6200 i was like okay finally like this recession everything blowing up it's finally here and then with the ai trade everything just got kind of a second life um i mean it's been equities have been nuts i think one of the best things going on in crypto right now is that you don't have to uh miss out and we've been saying this on the show for months now it's like you know there's other markets out there that using things like nato kraken hyper liquid lighter you can trade the microns the semi names the memory names while still kind of basing in uh crypto in stable coin um which is really cool that's not something we had last cycle so as much as it's like oh we're on the sideline of this equity move it's like well you can participate uh you know if you want to it's never been easier absolutely and what is your guys [01:40:13] Speaker 7: expectations then for the next time around when it comes to like altcoins and eth and btc like are we having very tempered expectations or do we think it's like the the bouncing ball situation where it's just you know all of these things are just not gonna make any significant highs like what what's what's your vibes you want to go first ponzi yeah i mean [01:40:40] Speaker 6: people are always going to want to speculate and if there's enough volatility and enough momentum at some point in the market again um whether it's nfts or memes like whatever it is it there's going to be some sort of instrument inside of crypto for people to play with um but that's not to say that it will be you know the memes that we've been trading for the last seven months or the last four years or you know but there will be a new flavor of the day without a doubt yeah i i think um similar to prior [01:41:16] Speaker 5: cycles old stuff is not going to make new highs it very rarely does um so you know the tia's the injectives the stuff that everyone thought was great last cycle i don't think any of that kind of stuff makes new highs i think the best performing coins much like last cycle will be born in the bull run like the premier meme uh maybe a new novel product will be born in the bull run i do think there are a few potential outliers though which are exciting something like a hyper liquid which made new all-time highs in the bear market it's a unbelievably run company that is making money hand over fist lighter is very interesting with their partnership with robin hood i hope that we're entering an era where there's going to be other blue chip cryptos and the reason they're blue chip is not just because you know they've been around for a long time but because there's companies behind them and fundamentals that actually matter like they make money they use that money to buy back the token they invented something completely new so i think that's something exciting but i think the meme coin casino is always going to exist but i think the pump funification of it all where there's just so many coins i disagree wholeheartedly with the people who are saying oh we're going to have you know shib went to 50 billion dollars so we're going to have a 50 billion dollar run of this cycle i'm like i think the reason she went to 50 billion is because there wasn't as many coins there's just too many now uh with arguably one of the most exciting coins fart coin popcat none of these i think even cracked 10 uh or even close i think with was at like four and i think that's what we're going to see again there's just too much available out there and the tendencies of the holders aren't what they used to be no one's going to hold on to anything i think long enough with enough conviction everyone's got to become like a murad and uh we saw what happened to him i mean he round tripped basically everything oh man yeah i saw no that's going to be [01:43:06] Speaker 7: interesting and i completely agree with your stance and i think also like vvv for example was a good was a good uh example of how you know if you're on it you can really spot things that still make those moves that are new you have time to accumulate you need to be on the fundamental game or the attention game of course when it comes to the meme situation like you uh ponzi uh one more thing that i thought was interesting by the way was this chart on uh bvol do you guys ever look at that yeah yeah i was just looking at it yeah this is like so crazy if you do like the layover with btc you can really see how it like coincides whenever we touch that range low and range high with like really big moves and we're kind of like touching the range low now sometimes we sit there for a bit before we do anything but yeah i think um potentially you know we do move out of this doom range anytime uh in the next few weeks hopefully just a crumb of volatility please [01:44:18] Speaker 5: it's funny we started this show i i want to say like right after the last major major dump in bitcoin like if i'm not mistaken ponzi like back in february maybe yeah it was um yeah and like it's been it's been tough like all right crypto closeout team like let's get people excited about crypto and it's like [01:44:41] Speaker 7: man oh man first you were ranging and then you had another dollar and another dump so i don't think [01:44:49] Speaker 5: that uh we could have started at possibly a worse time but i do believe that you know no matter what way you slice it sixty thousand for one bitcoin i think is cheap even if it does go to fifty thousand or forty five or fifty five i think if your upside targets are a new all-time high you're already in two x territory right now um you know and kind of based on you know what's not consensus mean is the [01:45:15] Speaker 6: high or new high is is is cryptography becoming obsolete from quantum computing and everybody says 50k but nobody says no new highs [01:45:31] Speaker 5: oh it's interesting take i mean start of the week we definitely have diminishing returns on bitcoin right like every high is less drastic than the high the peak to tro is also reduced in terms of downside so i think there's a world where yeah like i mean we continue to go up into the right but the you know highs aren't as you know as meaningful because at the end of the day bitcoin doesn't do anything right like it doesn't do anything so at some point what becomes who's the new marginal buyer as it starts to get these crazier and crazier prices another thing we do have that is you know kind of interesting is the last bitcoin will be mined in 2028 am i correct about that like i think we're already over 20 million is that true that have been mined we're in like the last inning i think we got one or two havings left and then it's done um someone fact checked me on that but i'm pretty sure we're close um we're over 20 million bitcoin mined at this point so then it just becomes the scarcity argument [01:46:32] Speaker 6: right no dude well the quantum what it says that the last bitcoin will be mined in the year of 2140. [01:46:40] Speaker 5: 21 40. well i guess the halving goes down so much how's that possible yeah it says that seems a little [01:46:47] Speaker 6: last ptc is projected to be mined around the year 2140. this is a mathematical outcome of the [01:46:52] Speaker 5: halving scheduled so mine so far is 20 million 70 000. so 95 of all bitcoin have been mined already and currently we're mining 450 a day with a million to go but that gets cut in half then yeah i understand so there's my apologies i i guess my point more is like the scarcity argument is like there's not going to be much new bitcoin like what's out there is 95 of what's ever going to be out there so that's really the bull case for bitcoin there's only so many because it doesn't do anything doesn't make any money um no one's really using it for anything other than you know holding it store value meh so i i agree in the quantum risk i mean i don't understand it enough to like i'm scared because the word quantum is is scary sounding and uh but is there a world where yeah it becomes worthless because like oh yeah it's been cracked you know all your private seeds are now hackable and bitcoin intrinsically [01:47:53] Speaker 6: has no value yeah i don't know what to think of the of the whole it's none of us know and i'm sure there is a quantum expert out there who's like ringing the alarms and and you know scaring everybody when [01:48:06] Speaker 7: nobody's listening hmm yeah i think that's the risk that you take right maybe moving forward and exponentially it gets worse probably as ai and quantum gets more sophisticated with time but that's why it makes it makes a lot of sense to either buy lower or buy on confirmation right because i do agree with you that like 62k is not a bad price for a bitcoin yeah but then on the other hand it's also like it's kind of hanging in no man's land so then to me i'm thinking like i'd rather have it like 10 higher with an idea of confirmation or i don't know how many percent lower where i'm like okay this feels you know like a logical entry yeah that's the vibes yeah we should definitely stream when there's more happening in the markets i i feel you guys i feel you guys on what you were saying about how uh tough it is because me and matt we actually uh started a little bit before you guys but not that much and we've also never streamed in a good market and those few weeks that we had and maybe had so much fun we were like trading live on stream and stuff and it's it's the best but yeah right now it's just caution caution caution every week you know yeah i mean i've taken so many [01:49:25] Speaker 5: so much fewer trades than i did last year this year so far it's it's crazy it feels very boring but again that's opportunity to prepare opportunity to do other things and of course expand your horizons something i always try and tell people is that you can apply these skills that you have learned in crypto in other markets you know your systems your ta your indicators that you use they do work in other markets yeah there's other nuances that you've got to pay attention to and maybe learn but there's no reason to pigeonhole yourself only to crypto when honestly the way that traditional finance is heading everything is becoming more easily accessible to be traded 24 7 365 i mean you're [01:50:07] Speaker 7: gonna have a perp on everything soon yeah yeah the casino is always open i've got a disgusting stat [01:50:13] Speaker 6: for you guys i uh i just looked i've traded on four wallets primarily this year on nato really a little bit on hyper liquid a little bit on chain on one wallet i've taken 89 000 trades this year no you're joking i swear 89 000 how is it possible yeah it's it literally i'm i'm i'm seeing it on chain right now on nuance what is what constitutes a trade every single transaction i was gonna say it could be limited sometimes yeah yeah it could be it could be that i've placed 89 000 orders [01:50:47] Speaker 5: um still not there there's no thing that it could be where 89 000 is not still a gross number [01:50:57] Speaker 7: i mean i trade every day yeah but i trade every day 250 days so far so that means that you had like [01:51:07] Speaker 5: 365 trades a day there's only 8 000 there's only 8 760 hours in a single year no no this can't be true [01:51:16] Speaker 7: because you know what it could also be 350 trades a day in the hours that you're away wait listen listen [01:51:24] Speaker 6: i i also do run t wops so it could just be running every single order i also think anytime you get [01:51:31] Speaker 5: dusted any single staking points accumulate all that stuff might track but regardless 89 000 is still [01:51:40] Speaker 7: gross dude yeah it's a lot no i traded a lot now i need to know your i need to know your stats in a bull market then [01:51:47] Speaker 6: i hope it's not yeah honestly i think this year was saturated just because i was really farming nato [01:51:55] Speaker 5: yeah yeah it has to be yeah i mean that's that's crazy that's crazy he's a quantity guy [01:52:04] Speaker 7: yeah that's not great no i'm i'm happy here on the sidelines i'm cooking a lot it's been nice here [01:52:09] Speaker 5: summer here in summer i know i have that your cooking videos always make me hungry when i'm watching them like in bed already brushed my teeth wait i haven't seen your cooking videos dude they're [01:52:19] Speaker 7: really good and they're artistic yeah yeah this is this is not public info but uh i guess now it is [01:52:27] Speaker 5: yeah send them to me so i can send them to the wife i will that's what i do i just forward them to my wife i'm like hey make this [01:52:37] Speaker 7: no i i think um this is a good time i think my friend crypto amsterdam said like um to prepare your nets like you're gonna go fishing again in a bit and now it's time to prepare the nets and just sharpen the skills also i think it's really valuable to know when not to trade i mean i think ponzi maybe can't speak on that even though he says yes there's always a trade out there no this is not your topic it is not every day oh man um so no i i think it's really nice because even in a good market there's also times when you're up so much and you need to just close it and go for a walk and like not look back for the day and that's like been a learning curve for me over the years so i think now it's really uh good sometimes to see that yes you know things might be pumping a bit everyone in the discord is is catching the same thing and you're not in it but to like let that feeling rise and then sit with it and letting it go down again and realizing that you haven't missed anything it's just a trade like a cloud passing by it's that's that's nice you know [01:53:45] Speaker 5: to yeah to recognize that i think something ponzi left out there is it's 89 000 trades and he's got zero profit so it's been 89 000 trades to break even which is incredible um in its own right but i agree and i think something people under uh put don't put enough importance on everyone focuses on their entry like where am i getting into the market they don't ever think about where their idea is wrong where that idea is right where are you taking profit to your point saying okay this trade idea is done i have to live with the fact that i'm no longer in or when to sit out completely and that's something that i think you have to develop in your system your edge your strategy is that checklist of things that you need to know hey am i even getting into a trade yes or no and then what are the parameters of those trades and then live with it uh because that can be very difficult people are so focused on like okay i'm longing now because you know everything's about to moon it's like okay well when is that trade idea complete are you just going to hold forever does it have a take profit does it have a stop loss and that's kind of stuff that you absolutely should be making sure you understand because it's a lot harder to do when you're in it it's very easy right now to be like oh i'm going to do all these things but when you know it's go time and the market is rallying every day and there are opportunities [01:55:03] Speaker 7: abundant uh it's a lot harder to be disciplined i i once made um when i was over trading a bit i made like this checklist that had like a few questions on it and one of it was like if you had to present this trade idea that you're about to take in a boardroom with 10 of your favorite traders would this be the idea that you present and that's like such a good question because often when you're you know about to be really hasty with a trade and just like traders to you know get some dopamine the answer is like very often no and these type of things asking yourself i think like filters out a bit of the noise um because it can be so easy right to get caught up in an idea just because you think everyone is catching it or you're missing out or whatever you know yeah i actually think that that's a [01:55:59] Speaker 5: a great one i think a lot of my trading is trying to talk myself out of the trade more than talk myself into it i'm looking for all the reasons why this might be a bad trade before i say okay you know what this is good enough that you know i've run it through all my different filters it's still worth trading i i have one when i used to keep more of an active journal where if i couldn't explain it like on the back of a business card like in a couple of lines like why am i taking this trade where am i entering where is it right where is it wrong and why then it's not a good trade you know i i find if you're you're playing lawyer against yourself trying to convince yourself that this was a good idea oftentimes uh you know that's a losing proposition from the get-go yeah 100 that's a good one [01:56:41] Speaker 6: yeah i concur i concur well then we've kept you over uh the allotted time to which we told you you would be here and i think you just gave a really really good piece of advice i was going to ask you you know if you had anything to give to our viewers right now what would it be so if you have anything else please let us know but i'm actually going to steal the one that you just gave us and tell [01:56:59] Speaker 7: everybody it's mine yeah me too making a youtube video on that tomorrow yeah yes you're allowed no i think that is the closing message for me right now i'm not seeing any of those things you guys know my stance either confirmation or lower down or that time-based capitulation that we still have some ways to go to in my opinion and i would love to um be back on here when we have some more exciting things mostly some more exciting altcoins because that is my bread and butter and the thing that i love trading the most and uh yeah hopefully they will be back awesome thanks so much for coming [01:57:38] Speaker 5: on we look forward to having you on again once the market picks up yes yes thanks guys for the [01:57:43] Speaker 6: invites appreciate it of course see you soon ciao i mean look at uh look at telegram look at the message that is saying how sick is that what what am i looking at here is that that's what that's what that's the trade you're talking about yeah i hit this two days ago i'm still holding it what's it called nui lao yeah it's like some bull that went went viral in china because it's like a horrible film like this is what it looks like just for reference everybody said it was the worst film ever it became mega memed in china and i was kind of drunk or not drunk i was just out and about very late at like 2 a.m two nights ago and i saw qwerty hit it for like he bought like two percent and i had like two grand in my wallet so i was like whatever i'll just blind ape and then i woke up and it was worth a lot more i was like wow and he's up a million on it almost oh my gosh dude i mean what are your [01:58:39] Speaker 5: thoughts on um what binance is cooking naturally cz is you know seeing the success of fomo pump fun launch kind of a competitor on chain social trading app clearly he's cooking something up similar to astor when you know hype and lighter uh kind of gained relevance and popularity how do you think it's going to do do you think it's a another just like hit job or he's just going to try and you know draw people away i mean one thing that he has is you know he's arguably one of the richest people on the planet uh and he will shamelessly make sure that coins that you know are on his platform do well [01:59:18] Speaker 6: as a as a means to attract people yeah i mean i want to say that more of the attribution of this movement and excitement comes from products like pump fun and and fomo right now um it's been this narrative and thesis that i've been running with for six months as you saw i try to bring it to to nato but like people have to stop targeting ct and fomo and finally did that and started targeting the proper retail audience made a super easy onboarding experience and uh let people trade with you know apple pay so i think that's more of like they're they're actually maybe a little bit of new money coming into the mix um nothing crazy but enough to get people like you know gambling like what we're seeing right now like me turning this very small sum of money into a large sum of money um in 48 hours is his eyes and and the apps like fomo and pump are allowing the social layer of people seeing that and being all right i want to do that too so i think that's more of what's driving these things and and cz is going to do whatever you can to to you know reroute that funnel back onto [02:00:29] Speaker 5: bnb and bsc and whatever it takes we'll see how it goes i agree i think you know a lot of people on ct are crashing out being like why are they onboarding these normie influencers it's like because that's where retail actually is retail is not on you know your little ct echo bubble where everyone has you know twitter trackers and all the tooling like they want to go on their phone and they want to load up with apple pay and then they want to put 100 bucks into 10 different random coins and you know on across any chain that they want very easily with a couple clicks on their phone as opposed to having four monitors and you know doing the stuff that the qwerty's and the incenstos and those guys are doing and i think rightly so guys like orangey and incentos are on instagram and tick tock and are you know whether or not you agree with what they're doing but like that is i think where the next wave of real onboarding comes uh it's not not on crypto twitter i think we're we're prisoners of this echo chamber that we seemingly can't ever leave with just the most miserable it reminds me of that uh movie with uh warshark warshack uh is that superhero movie oh it's like you're not trapped in here with me like i'm not trapped in new with you you're trapped in here with me that's how i feel every day when i log on to twitter watch and i'm i'm like one of these days uh like september 2028 not that that's an important date for me or anything i might be leaving permanently [02:02:00] Speaker 6: oh well your time will come too actually your time came i don't know why you're still here you're [02:02:03] Speaker 5: voluntarily here buddy yeah somewhat i've got a bit of golden handcuffs on right now so yeah we'll we'll see it out for a little bit longer and then we'll see but like oh my gosh man like i genuinely enjoy making youtube i've been putting a lot of work into youtube since like february released a whole new trading course i'm streaming the interactions and engagement and like the fans for lack of a better term that i have over there they're just like happy they're stoked like this is amazing thank you for sharing it's all positive good vibes and i come on twitter and i'm like hey here's the chart and it's just like you yeah it's like okay you're welcome uh it's just i don't know man it's pretty funny but it's gonna be i think one of the more interesting cycles because crypto has never been more mainstream than it is right now even in the bear market um you know where it used to be like bitcoin and crypto is dead where the bottom signals that we were looking for you've got stanley druckenmiller buying you know hyperliquids etf you have the clarity act going to be decided in you know september um so you know people are still talking about crypto even though price is way down uh on bitcoin which is new uh last cycle ftx blew up everyone's like okay the great crypto experiment is over and i mean cycles before that it was even easier like the moment you saw that new york times article being like bitcoin's dead it's like okay now it's time to buy uh i think it's just different now it's a lot more eyeballs on it um it's become more efficient in many ways and because of things like hyperliquid lighter etc there's bigger money in the pool i keep going back to the example of like oil trading on hyperliquid when we were like peak or ran war um i think in the bull run we're gonna see a lot more of that a lot more people taking advantage of the 24 7 on-chain nature of what we have here not just for crypto but for everything else yeah i mean with that what are we buying i'm buying bitcoin hyperliquid solana and eath and that's about it i'll leave like five percent of my money to throw into random stuff that you tell me about way too late and uh i'll just burn that money i was doing my taxes like not that long ago and i'm like going through random phantom wallets i'm like damn i didn't even sell this for dust like you know what i mean so it's like okay time to harvest some capital losses uh and uh you know beyond with it but i mean i had one last cycle i mean obviously peanut and whatnot but i had like fog where i was up for a bit yeah i was up for a bit and it's down like 99 from where it entered yeah i never sold it oh my god i know bro i'm the old get me in your coin guys i never sell i never sell i i literally will hold it to zero anyways guys that's been the crypto close out i'm trader maine this is ponzi trader we'll be back next sunday hope to see you there with some more volatility bye-bye [02:05:25] Speaker ?: you