About this transcript: This is a full AI-generated transcript of Sunday Futures + Crypto — Market Analysis, Prep, & Trade Setups — CoinGuru (7/26/26) from NinjaTrader, published July 27, 2026. The transcript contains 23,950 words with timestamps and was generated using Whisper AI.
"Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. All right, traders, this is Blake Morrow, and you are listening to the Sunday Open here in NinjaTrader Live. I want to welcome everybody, and I'm stepping in for Craig Shapiro..."
[00:00:00] Speaker ?: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
[00:05:30] Blake Morrow: All right, traders, this is Blake Morrow, and you are listening to the Sunday Open here in NinjaTrader Live. I want to welcome everybody, and I'm stepping in for Craig Shapiro today, and we got our normal crew here. We got Farm, Sarah, Pax. How are you guys doing?
[00:05:52] Speaker 2: I'm doing great.
[00:05:53] Speaker ?: Fantastic. How are you doing? I'm doing great.
[00:05:54] Blake Morrow: I'm doing great. The market is doing great. We got a nice gap up in the market. You know, before I start talking about some of these moves that we're seeing right at the open, I got alarms going off and everything around my computer. I just want to make a quick mention of something really exciting happening at NinjaTrader. We have a single stock futures. They launched today. And if you want more information on single stock futures with NinjaTrader, we have a pinned link in the chat. So make sure you visit that first and foremost so you can learn all about, you know, what individual stocks are being covered and all the different contracts that are going to be covered this week. So check out that pinned link in the chat room. Now, real quick, I just want to note that, you know, right now at the open, we're seeing a big move up in the futures. We're going to talk about what those futures prices are. The dollar was already kind of leaning that way, you know, ahead of the market. We, you know, ahead of the open, you know, all the currency markets started trading a couple hours ago, and we had the dollar down. And I'll just, I'll, I'll just reference that really quick. You can kind of see it. One of the, one of the benefits of, I guess, for me, when I trade currencies, we'll see them like kind of moving higher a little earlier. We know that the dollar is already weak. Therefore, it's going to tell us that futures are, are going to end up a little bit better. And a lot of this is on the heels of, you know, the Trump administration not going through with a planned attack, apparently, according to sources. And I think it was the New York Times that reported it. There was an attack that was supposed to happen on Friday. It didn't happen. Therefore, the market's a little bit happier. Crude's weaker. And I'm going to actually, before we start getting in some of these charts and seeing what Sarah and, and farm see packs, how are you reading the open as far as the futures are going? You know, what's everything look like?
[00:07:51] Speaker 3: I don't care about the indices whatsoever. I want to be long crude. And I tried to buy them in 83.50 and I missed them. I'm not chasing them. Gold, gold, the levels in gold that we have been talking about for months here, 49, 4,100, which is a pivotal level. 4,100 is the, when gold set the high of 56.26, 4,100 was where we broke to. It was also the 200-day moving average and we rallied back up to 4,890 in that. So 4,100 is pivotal and we open right there. So if you want to take a short in gold, you can take a short here around 40.97 with the stop above 4,100. Keep it tight. Don't do it more than twice because you don't want to make death of a thousand paper cuts. We get above there, you can get long. I'm sorry. I know that that's not what you're asking, Blake, but this is what I'm looking at. Lookit, regardless of what, you know, whether or not there's a new MOU, an old MOU, or the first MOU is good, or there's peace. There isn't peace. We're bombing. We're not bombing. The Strader Hormuz is still closed. So $83.10, and that's the low gold. So $83.50 is cheap. Not gold, silver. Not silver, crude, for fuck's sake. $83.50 is cheap. Sarah, I was waiting for you to correct me. The indices, you know, I don't know. I'm not excited about the S&P until the S&P gets, well, I mean, it has to, we still have to fill that gap from last week. 75 and a quarter. NASDAQ still needs, let's see, NASDAQ still needs to fill that gap.
[00:09:23] Speaker 2: NASDAQ, I never heard that.
[00:09:25] Speaker 3: You've never heard NASDAQ?
[00:09:26] Speaker 2: Never. Come on, NASDAQ. I've been dealing with you for almost a year. I never heard you say that.
[00:09:33] Speaker 3: Oh, sister, I got a lot of them.
[00:09:34] Speaker 2: Oh, I love it. That's my new favorite word.
[00:09:37] Speaker 3: The NASDAQ needs to fill at $29,089. So, I mean, the NASDAQ's got a long way to go to get there, and the S&P does too. So I'm not going to get too excited until either they fill the gap on the upside or we take out Friday's low. You know, the indices stink right now. I think, I'm going to, I don't think any of this is what you've asked. But, you know, we have the Fed this week, so we'll break out this week. It's just not right now.
[00:10:07] Blake Morrow: Yeah. And thanks, Pax. We have a ton of stuff happening this week. Just kind of give you guys a just kind of high level of things that are happening. A, we got the Fed. We've got actually two other central banks. We've got the Bank of England. We have the Bank of Japan. Also, you know, obviously, we're going to talk a little bit in further detail about those central banks and what we're expecting. Also, we have a lot of big earnings. A lot of retailers are, you know, posting earnings this week. Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, a lot of, we have Qualcomm. That's going to be a big one. HK Hynix is, you know, it's going to matter for the Korean markets. You can see a lot of big earnings plays this week. And so I think it's going to be a big, big week for equities in general. I think the big pivotal week or big pivotal day, excuse me, is going to be on the Fed, how the Fed actually, is the Fed a little bit more hawkish or do they actually even hike? Because if you look at, you know, interest rate probabilities, we're talking about a 40% chance, you know, high 30s, 40% chance, depending if you're looking at the CME tool or maybe a proprietary tool like this, there's a higher probability that that can, that we could get a hike. I don't think it's actually going to come, but how the Fed tailors their speech and how Warsh handles the press conference is going to be really key. But let's go to Sarah really quick. Sarah, how are you reading these charts as, you know, the market opens? I know we are kind of on our back heels, you know, to end the week this last week. And here we are gapping higher. What do you make of this price action?
[00:11:47] Speaker 2: I'm kind of with PAX right now. Well, the indices do not, you know, have much of my attention. The futures, especially, especially ES is just a stuck mess. I'm going to make this chart big because people, oh, it's funny. I drew this like triangle or wedge or whatever, symmetrical triangle in my chat room. And people are like, oh, this is a strat. We don't draw those. I was like, oh, we do, though, because we understand that this all of this price action is stuck inside this range. And ES is still doing that. Like we're still diddling in the middle. We do have a little broad information in there, which is the price action trying to get bigger within this tightening range. It's just really not going anywhere. So we are still an inside month. So I don't I don't really see much movement happening in ES until next month minimum. I don't think we're going anywhere this month. You can see, you know, the high and the low completely inside the previous month's candles. It's just not going anywhere. So I won't trade it. I've been telling my traders to stay away from it all week. It was inside almost all week until it wasn't. But that pretty much happened overnight. NQ kind of gave us a little bit of a fake out earlier in the week, because if you guys remember on the monthly chart on NQ, let me make it big.
[00:13:18] Blake Morrow: Make it rain to make it rain.
[00:13:20] Speaker 2: I wish I could. So that was the line in the sand for NQ, right? So you we we can be short below this pink line, a.k.a. last month's lows, which is twenty eight, five, twelve or long above it. So earlier in the week. So here's last week's lows. We couldn't stay below it, couldn't close below it. And then we got reversals up on Monday and Tuesday. But then what happened was Wednesday, they kind of, you know, slowed down the buying, went inside. And then reversed, went inside and back down, back below last month's lows. So, again, we are right there again. So there is sort of in my in my mind, like the way that I think about it, there's sort of a fight happening at last month's lows. Sellers are trying to sell. Buyers are trying to buy. And they don't we're still at that level, which is an indecision level to me. I need to see us well above it to to be long or closing below it and staying below it to be short. And right now it's just kind of jerking everybody around and the ranges are not that big. So don't get all. And if you can, you know, I joke around and I say if I didn't have a community, I'll see you guys in September. But that's really how I feel like and I and, you know, I can't just take off for a month and a half because I do have a community. But I don't have to trade and I'm not currently this, but future not futures stocks we've been trading. There's just it's just not moving very much.
[00:14:57] Blake Morrow: Are you doing any do you do any work on crude oil? Because Pax was talking about, you know, trying to pick up, you know, on that spike lower right at the open. Obviously, he missed it. He was just talking about it. Do you do any work on crude oil and how and how on the way you trade?
[00:15:12] Speaker 2: Yeah. So we we do a lot with it, actually. But we were calling for an outside month this month and a lot of like the like and we'll trade options, too. So like XLE went outside month. And that's what we were anticipating the futures to do. It's just the futures didn't quite do it. But, you know, some of the energy sector stuff did like I can't remember some of the other tickers like XOM, XOP, maybe. So, yeah, we will trade, you know, trade that. This gap down kind of stinks. But, you know, the month is still bright green. We still have. We still have a whole week of trading left in this month. So it's not to say that we can't get outside month magnitude still, which is to take out last month's highs to get the outside month that we got in XLE because the bears obviously couldn't stay below last quarter's low. So the bull stepped in. They're buying it and they're buying it and they're trying to come to last month's highs. So I wouldn't surprise me to see a reversal like on. Well, this will this will be Monday's candle. So maybe on Tuesday we get a reversal back up and then they try to get back to last month's highs. But I don't know what's going on with the news and that, you know, again, you've got to be careful with that stuff. There's a war. There isn't a war. It's open. It's closed. I don't know.
[00:16:40] Blake Morrow: All right. All right. Thank you very much. Farm, my Arizona sweaty brother with another mother from another mother. What are you, other than sweating your butt off like I am? I know we are together here. What are you seeing at the open here and how are you going to how are you going to approach this week? Especially, you know, you start the week on this, you know, this high note. Everybody's obviously, you know, obviously a little giddy this morning with the with the with the open. But how are you going to approach that with the Fed coming up and what are the levels you're looking at?
[00:17:11] Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, this is definitely I wrote my plan this weekend. And if we trade higher first, it's going to be probably the trickiest and most annoying scenario, which made it the most likely I've been watching. It's kind of my high, at least intermediate time frame chart that I've been watching on NQ. And like Sarah, Sarah has been watching the NQU prior month low. I've been watching the continuous contract prior month low, which was 28 to 28. And like we finally came down there on Friday and it was like it was it was just the weirdest thing. It was just like it lulled you to sleep, but it was like, yeah, I'll go take it out. And then it just like quickly traded below it by like 12 handles or whatever and then reverse back in. So, you know, that that checkboxes has has has been checked, I guess. Right. That box has been checked. But is that range low? Right. Like if you're going to go home on a weekend, shorten the range low. Good luck to you. You know, Trump and. You said that last week. That's right. That's right. Like you don't want to be opening a short down here and you can see we traded higher off it, you know, this general area last week. And then with this trading higher first scenario was risky last week. Right. Sometimes it's better. And Sarah and I talked about this. It would have been better to come down, take out last week's low first, take the June low properly on the continuous contract as well for good measure. Get it all done. Then try to run back through the range. And now here we are, kind of same thing. We're opening an inside week. Like I would still have preferred it would have been a lot cleaner to me to come down and take Friday's low first and then make an attempt to trade higher. I think this situation is a little different from last week. Last week, I was at a pretty high confidence I was going to end up selling it. And then when it set up into this spot up here, the 269, 369 range, that I mean, that to me was like the trade of the quarter for me. Like I don't need to trade. And some of the slop, I have no interest in trading. This could be different. This could be like this weird wall of worry scenario where we trade higher first. Unless they completely step on this gap up and sell it, which is entirely possible. But if we just trade higher first from here, you're going to be wondering, you're like, is this like last week? Are they going to step on this? Are they going to come and sell this? So like maybe you stay hedged. Maybe you're trying to short it. And then like it keeps going. Like who knows, right? It could be very, very tricky. But generally, that's the spot, right? That spot that we tagged on Friday again. That's range low and you generally don't want to be short into range low. You want to see it break with continuation first. So ES has been, like Sarah mentioned, it's really been stuck. It's really, really been stuck. It finally has just been flirting with this 7469-ish spot. Sellers tried to defend it Friday, say yesterday. Tried to defend it like pre-market and then they didn't defend it during the day. So like I don't, I didn't consider it lost. Obviously, it's not now. It's kind of, you know, sitting in this range. But this general area has been a decision point and buyers have generally controlled this from above. It was, you know, appeared to be lost Thursday into Friday. But to me, I need to see, you know, once this attempt was made pre-market at 69, which I, of course, shorted. Because like who didn't think I was going to short 69? But no lower low, right? So to me, it's not lost. It wasn't lost. Clearly, it's not lost now. It wasn't lost. Now we're just doing this giant F around and find out with that spot. So I agree that ES is going nowhere anytime soon. NQ is a lot more interesting to me and has been. And I just feel like all eyes have to be on what NQ does. And I hate the fact that it gapped up, not because I'm short, because I'm not going home short into a weekend at range low. But again, because it complicates matters. If we had come in here and we had punched through these lows, take out last week's low, for sure, we've taken last month's low and then start to reverse back in. I would have been very, very interested in getting meaningfully long, the NASDAQ. And now this situation is like, what do I do? We've got FOMC on Wednesday. We've got this gap up that may or may not get sold. Do I sell this? Of course. Or do I buy it, right? I'm not going to buy a gap up. We'll see how this settles in here. But the NQ has definitely been what you need to watch, even if you're trading ES, because we've been in this max dispersion environment. And it's just been kind of, for the most part, chomping around. We finally saw it weaken a little bit on Thursday. Like Pax mentioned, we still have an enormous gap that hasn't been filled. NQ does as well. So that's going to be the first order of business this week. So, you know, without rambling too much longer, I'm just going to say, I think this is going to be a lot of two-way trading this week. I think you need to be really careful to assume that we're going to sell this, you know, this leg higher, whether it's just this gap up to nine, or whether it's tomorrow, whether it's Tuesday, what have you. I think you just need to be careful assuming that. Because, you know, I've said for a few weeks, once you take a prior month low for the first time, like since the year-to-date low, it's extremely common. And according to a backtest I conducted in my head, there's a 69% chance that it will backtest higher after taking a prior month low for the first time. So is this a backtest higher? Does a backtest higher come up another 300 points? Does it come up another 1,000? That's the question for me. So I'm planning to be very careful with my capital this week and let this show me its hand. And I will probably not be looking to swing anything again after that big trade on Wednesday into Thursday. I'm going to sit mostly on hands and just be looking for intraday short rotations on either ES or NQ. I think there's a little bit more clarity on ES, whether it can base above this $7,497 to $7501. I could have argued up to $7504. I think that puts buyers a little bit more firmly in control than you might see on NASDAQ anytime soon. So I think this gap up, this is like max lack of clarity here.
[00:22:42] Blake Morrow: All right. Well, you know what? I'm going to, what I'm going to do is I'm going to do something a little bit different. And Pax, you're probably going to enjoy this little exercise I want to go through with you guys. I want to talk about, since it's the beginning of the week, I always like to plan my week on how I think things are going to happen. The reason why I do this is because for me, it's all about conviction. Conviction is everything to me. So if I've already have something planned out for the week, like what I want to do in a certain situation, I'm going to set the table for you guys here in a second. And then I want you guys to, I'm going to come to each one of you and, and, and I want you to think about the scenario that I'm about ready to set up for you. And I want to come find out how you want to trade this, but I know Pax, you're going to, you're going to enjoy this one. So this week, we obviously have a very big week and we have a big week come Wednesday. Wednesday is going to be the biggest day of the week, in my opinion, because we have the fed and the fed is the big wildcard right now, because we have new, we have a fed chair Warsh. We've got a, you know, how's he going to position, you know, his federal reserve. You'll notice, and this is one of the things I'm just going to show this again, really quick. There is a 40% chance that we get a rate hike. Now that is not realistic. I don't think anybody believes that's real, but the reason why that is that way is because we have a new federal reserve that is not giving us any forward guidance. And because of that, the market's like, oh crap, are we going to, are we going to get a hike or not? You know, the, the, I know CPI came in weaker and PPI. We do get PCE this week, which is the feds, at least at this moment in time, their favorite inflation gauge. But if you guys haven't seen it, and I know you guys have, I'm talking about the, our viewers at home yields have ripped across the board. Now the bond market, and you can, you can see the ZBs there, they're, they're, they're, you know, putting in a little bit of a low here. This is your 30 year, your 10 years, you know, it's bid up as well. You know, first thing, you know, here at the, at the beginning, at the beginning of the week because of the weekend events or non-event, if you will, if you will, but I think the real big risk, like I said, is going to be on Wednesday. If, if for some reason, the fed chair does not come out at least with a hawkish spin, the risk is, and this is where I want you guys to be thinking about this. And we're going to start with PAX. The risk is if the, if the fed chair kind of downplays, you know, because of inflation, because of what we've seen in CPI and PPI, the risk is that people will start going, oh crap, you know, yields are probably going to end up going higher because they are thinking they're, they're going to, they're going to get a misread from the fed. That's when you start talking about bond vigilantes and what might happen. If that does happen and we start to see global yields, and I, I should go reference this. If you go look at yields just across the board globally, this is like, I know I was just showing you like, you know, the 10 year, but here, let's go look at 10 year yields. You can see impressing up against resistance, 30 year yields up against resistance, but you start looking at Canada, Australia, uh, gilts out of the UK, you got oats, French oats are rallying. You got boons that are ripping. I mean, I'm talking yields here. So that means all fixed incomes coming down. If the bond vigilantes come in force after Wednesday and you'll start going up because the fed isn't playing ball with, they, they, they kind of look past this inflation. We might have a problem on our hands. If yields break out in stocks, they might not, they might not like it so much. So Pax, how much pre-planning are you doing around the fed as we head into Wednesday?
[00:26:24] Speaker 3: I'm not, um, uh, uh, I don't, you know, so, you know, like, uh, Ira Harris is one of my, my, my mentors, you know, and Ira is perhaps the best, uh, macro trader. I know, I, you know, even at the, even at his advanced stage, he's, I think he's 73. He, he can still beat the shit out of most people in their twenties. But anyway, I, I was the best macro trader I know. And he would come into, to our group, you know, into my group and, and give us his macro review all the time, you know, and, and, and, and, and a conversation not long ago, I was short bonds, short S and P long gold. Um, and I had some crude on, I can't remember what side. And he said, oh, look at, you've got the, uh, you've got the, you know, you've got the macro spread on, you got, you have a re you have the real, he called it the value spread. You have the value spread on. I said, no, I don't. Um, I just traded the opening range of gold bonds and the S and P. And that's how I got positioned, you know? And he thought that it was like, I had the macro story on. So, you know, looking at like the, the fed watch tools and seeing, as you said, you know, that there's a 40% chance of a hike, you know, I, a lot smarter people than me, you know, are, are making that, you know, making that bet or assumption. I have to imagine with the rally off the lows of the 30 year bond, that's probably a little bit lower than 40% at this point. Um, you know, but a lot smarter people than me have, uh, are going to make that, those determinations. And they're going to place their bets, you know, in the market, um, uh, uh, accordingly and beforehand, I don't bet, um, uh, I'm not going to place a bet. I'm going to trade my process and whatever that process, whatever that process gives me, um, either on, you know, either on the fed day, you know, cause the, who knows, maybe they come out with a surprise hike or, you know, or, or, or something, um, you know, but there isn't any going to be any forward guidance in that, that is ultimately, you know, where we get to read what the price action live, the, the live price action are, uh, uh, in the cross asset allocation tells us, and that's when, you know, we'll be able to take rotational trades or we'll be able to take trades from, you know, old highs or old lows and breakouts from here or from there, or just use, you know, pivots to, to kind of give us indication, you know, pivots, whether you're using the opening range as a pivot or you're using my quarterly pivots as a pivot or, you know, volume nodes and things like that. It doesn't matter. Whatever you're looking at, you're looking at whatever you're trading, you're trading. Um, so I know that that's probably not as interesting as an answer, uh, Blake, you know, but I'm not going to do a whole lot of reading and a whole lot of predicting and a whole lot of guessing and a whole lot of betting. I'm just going to, I'm going to trade whatever the market has for me. I've had some, uh, I have never had my best day on a fed day. Um, I have never had my best day on a fed rate decision. I have, however, lost 1.5 million of my own money, money that I never dreamed of having two years previous to this date on a fed rate decision. So I always come into the fed, uh, uh, fed, fed decisions kind of trepidatiously, uh, because of that. And, uh, and because I do, I've had some really, really big days. I've never made 1.5 million on a fed day, but I've made a few hundred thousand dollars before on fed days. You know, I, I am, I'm going to trade what's in front of me and I'm going to protect myself in every trade. So I don't leave myself with my ass hanging out in the wind.
[00:29:55] Blake Morrow: So you react to the reaction more or less. Yes. Okay. All right. And, you know, uh, and, and so this is where a lot of what I do is a little bit different in, in, in a sense, because I'll, what I'll do is I'll look at like technical levels and let's say, uh, I'm just going to use the e-minis will be a really good, um, um, uh, idea to do this. Like I'll look at the e-minis and I'll say, all right, you know what? I think, I think the fed's going to act a certain way. Like, I don't, I think he's, he's going to, he's not going to be as hawkish because he wants to kind of downplay it a little bit because he wants to prepare the market for rate cuts at some point down the road, you know, whether we're talking at the end of the year, he's going to try to, he's going to try to set the expectations, but I don't think the bond market's going to like it. And therefore yields are going to go up as a result. And then the stock market's going to act negatively. So what I'll do, not necessarily in the e-minis, I'll probably position myself a little differently in currencies early on in the week, but I might think that we're going to see some sort of, we're going to see some sort of rally into the, into the FOMC. And then I'll try to pre-position myself maybe on the short side of risk, maybe Tuesday and get myself at least where I have a cushion. If I'm right, if things act the way that I want to, then, then I can add to my position. And then if I'm wrong, my position is usually sized small enough initially to where I can cut my losses really quick. I do a lot of positioning like that in the market and that's something to add.
[00:31:24] Speaker 3: So, so I get that now and I'm, and I would do that too. And, uh, um, if it didn't interfere, uh, how do I say this? I would do that too. If it didn't interfere with my sizing. So, you know, um, uh, uh, uh, um, uh, I don't know how to say this without, without. You say it, uh, well, no, it's not offensive. It's it, you know, I, I'm always looking, I, so every trade that I make, I, I assume every time I make a trade, I assume that I'm immediately going to have to get out for an expense, literally your trade. And then when that trade works, now I take a step back, I breathe. And I think, what's my job here. I'm looking to size up on every trade, you know? So, um, you know, I, I, I, I, I'm hemming and kind of hawing a little bit and how to say this, cause I don't want to encourage anybody in the chat to start trading bigger, you know, when they're not ready to, you know, there's a real sequence that we all have to kind of go through in order to become, you know, the, the, the traders that are able to increase your size. You know, um, there's a whole, it, it takes time and it takes effort and, you know, and there's, there's just, there's, there's, there's, we all know this, there's, there's a process to it, but I mean, I'm every trade I make, I naturally assume I'm going to have to get out for an expense. And then I want to size up. I want to sell more. I want to buy more. You know, I very rarely do I want to buy more, but on a market that's breaking, I want to sell more now like it. So, so like Ira would talk about sacrificing soldiers, you know, like, uh, I think kind of like along the lines that you're talking about, you know, I've got this macro view, they're lining up with my technical levels. So I'm going to buy the two year, sell the five year by the 10, you know, I'm going to, you get the yield curve spread out and then I'm going to, you know, I'm going to, I'm going to do some options against it. So, you know, I'm thinking, well, it's not, I don't want to do that. I, first of all, sacrificing soldiers is just sort of a, like a violent, you know, a little bit violent of an expression. I would rather probe the market, seem softer, probe the market with smaller size. And when I find the momentum of the market or when I'm on the right side of it, then to start banging out more, you know what I mean? Um, so if I'm doing, if I'm trading, like if I'm trading like that, then, uh, it, I have to, I have to cut my size and I have to widen my stops. And I, I don't like doing that.
[00:33:50] Blake Morrow: Got it. And you know what? And there's the great thing about what, what we do here at Ninja trader live, especially with the, the multitude of traders is there are, I always say there's a thousand ways to skin a cat. And I know that doesn't sound right, but it's, you know, there are so many different ways to trade the markets. It's great to get so many different perspectives. That's why everybody that's watching this right now, if you're watching us on YouTube, you should be doing all the cool stuff, like jumping in the comments, giving a thumbs up, liking this video, you know, and, and following this whole group here because Ninja trader live does a great job of bringing in so many different traders and so many different approaches to the market. So let's, and thank you Pax for your, for your, for your, for your comments here. Let's go, let's go over to farm farm. How are you going to prepare for this fed meeting come Wednesday? Like it going back into my scenario, you know, that it's going to be very pivotal. Maybe we get a rally, maybe, maybe we get this huge rally in equities. Maybe we get the market roll over rolling over. Are you going to get yourself positioned for that? Or are you going to just trade the reaction?
[00:34:55] Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm in a bit to peel back, um, with the back and forth, but, uh, to, to your point with regard to positioning ahead of time, if I have an opportunity, if it comes to one of my spots on a Monday night or a Tuesday night, and there's some amazing setup, like last week's setup, um, I'm taking that setup every single time. And if I can get green on the position, like you suggested, um, take some profits, protect a stop, um, then I, I would roll into a fed meeting with something like that. But I, at Danwell better have been an amazing trade that I wanted anyway. Um, and I'm in, the trade is good. It's going my direction. Then I'll take that risk. I'm definitely not putting something on like right before the release comes out or as he comes up to the podium, like on some like big picture attempt at a swing anyway. Um, aside from, from that, um, you know, definitely a lot more, uh, reactive. So, you know, prepare, um, but not necessarily have a plan to act, um, into, uh, the presser and the release. So I will say like, to your point, I mean, if, if policy is, this is a little bit macro, uh, and I'm macro retarded, so I shut my mouth, but I, I tend to think if, if they're a little bit hawkish, uh, people, people assume that fed cuts rates or if they're dovish, that the long end rates come down. They just automatically assume that. And they assume the opposite of the fed is, um, you know, raising rates that, that rates will go up and what have you. I think the fed is hawkish or, or hikes bonds might get bought, bond, bonds price. Um, because yeah, I mean, it, it settles the vigilantes down a little bit. I mean, if, if they're going to be, uh, tight into, you know, uh, an energy shock, um, you know, I, I think that that could potentially lead to some softening in the economy and it's a good time to buy bonds then. So things could be a little bit backwards, but what I like to do is watch how, uh, these various instruments react to news, whether it's fed or whether it's an ISM or an ISM or like whatever it is, I like to watch, um, how they react. And especially when they react in a way that you would not normally expect, that's when I pay attention and start watching that asset a little bit more closely. So, you know, maybe it's dollar yen or, you know, whatever it is, whatever is telling me that it's behaving in a way that it maybe shouldn't. Um, I get interested and start to figure out what that means in my own kind of price monkey way. So I probably won't trade anything off of it, but the biggest thing I've been watching, I know you've been watching the dollar yen here. Like, I mean, if it comes out hawkish, um, I mean, I don't think they're going to hike. Um, maybe they will, that'd be weird. But, um, if they come out hawkish, let's say, and dollar yen tanks, that would be interesting. Um, that would be really interesting. And I would pay attention to that and say, oh, what the hell does that mean? Um, so those are the kinds of things that I look for, um, out of these events. I'm just trying to pay attention, watch how everything is behaving to the information that, uh, that the fed is giving us, um, as opposed to trying to necessarily trade off of it right away. And then I'll continue to watch that information the next day or two, how it shakes out and position myself. But, um, to your initial point, I will position into a meeting, um, if it happens to be a trade that I want anyway, at a specific location.
[00:38:01] Blake Morrow: And, and I think you said it key. It's like, if I see the spot that I want to trade in packs has seen this, uh, I I've had this up for like the last two weeks and you guys can't see it, but it's, it's a, it's a, it's a post-it note that I use post-it notes all over my desk. It says target trade. That means I only, I only get in at the levels that I want to get in, especially going back to what Sarah was saying. It's summertime, you know, when we're in summer liquidity is poor and you, you, you, and, and flows that are much bigger than most of us, maybe not packs, but the rest of us flows come into the market. You gotta, you gotta be respectful. You can't be short in the ranges. Like you said, farm a little bit earlier. Like we're at the bottom end of the range. If you want to be short at the bottom end of the range in, in the summertime, good luck, you know? And, uh, so you gotta just know where your levels are at trade around those levels. And maybe it gets you that decent price before the big show on Wednesday. So Sarah, speaking of the big show, um, what, what do you do as far as positioning going into like a big fed meeting that we, we know this is going to be a big one. This is going to be a pretty big meeting as far as, uh, markets are concerned.
[00:39:06] Speaker 2: Glad you asked. I've been waiting to answer. Uh, it's above my pay grade to try and guess which way these people are going to say what's what, so I don't, um, just like I don't pre-position myself for earnings unless I'm gambling on, on option lotto and I plan for it to go to zero. Um, yeah, I don't know what these people are doing. I don't pretend to know it hurts my head to think about it. Um, so I just wait, we wait, I, you know, we don't need to be in it. And lately, every time the FOMC happens, it's been pretty like lackluster. Just, it's not been very big moves. Um, and nothing I care to sit around and, you know, in the trading beforehand sucks. So we kind of usually just trade the first hour or two of the day, and then we'll come back at the end of the day after the old people have talked about their money. And then we'll see if there's a trade that we want to do. If not, not a big deal. And not to mention, this is coming right ahead of, you know, you got Microsoft and meta after the close. So I feel like that's going to have more of an impact than whatever, you know, these guys say, you know, after hours. So, and again, I don't try to guess what these are doing. So I'm certainly not going to try and guess what the Fed's going to do. And then what Microsoft meta, Apple and Amazon are going to do. So I'm, it'll be like hands off for me. Cause I, you know, I don't like to guess. I like to have an edge and, you know, news events are not my edge. They're, they're anyone's guess.
[00:40:56] Speaker 3: So, you know, there's, there's one thing that's different about this, this, uh, this press conference is so, uh, well, there's a lot of things different. What happens in the press conference this time, Blake, you know, is he going to answer questions, uh, or is there going to be a press conference?
[00:41:14] Blake Morrow: Oh, is there going to be a press conference? There will be. Yeah. I don't, I don't know if he's going to, if he's, if he's ready to do, to get rid of those just yet.
[00:41:21] Speaker 3: Well, all right, but, but, but there's no forward guidance. So he's got to be very careful in how he states things and how he answers questions in order to avoid giving forward guidance. Right.
[00:41:30] Blake Morrow: Right.
[00:41:32] Speaker 3: So, you know, I mean, some of the best price action that we have on fed days are, um, you know, are, is during the, uh, the press conference, you know, after the decision, you get the vote, you know, is there dissensions is there isn't, you know, that kind of thing, you know? And then, and then, um, uh, the way that he answers those questions, as long as you get a question from, you know, a seasoned reporter and not one of those reporters that talk with the lilt, like my daughters do, you know? And, uh, I want, I want like, you know, and I don't want Steve, Steve Leesman either. Well, I want to hear Rick Santelli asking questions. I want to hear Ira Harris asking questions anyway. Um, you know, and we'll get some price action off that maybe, I don't know, you know, but I want to see how this press conference is going to change things because Sarah's right. There's always going to be another trade and guessing with our money is no way to do it. Now. I mean, I can tell you like the, the, the, the 30 year made a big low on Friday, sort of the tenure. Somebody had asked me about the, uh, the, the tenure too, uh, um, uh, a little bit ago. That was a big low in the 30 year bonds. It needs to hold it, but one Oh nine 16 is a big ass low one Oh eight in the 30 year. I mean, the tenure is a big ass low. And now we can rally again, back up to, I don't know, recent highs would be in the, in the S uh, in the, um, the 30 year is like one Oh four 14. And, and the, uh, the, the tenure has got, I got to make sure I don't conflate the two like I do golden, uh, golden and crude all the time, but the tenure now, if anybody's paying attention to this, I'll just give you these levels real quick. Cause somebody had asked. Okay. So one Oh eight, one Oh eight, even is a spot to have gotten long. Now we're getting up and higher and rallying. So look for this one Oh nine 15 level above one Oh nine 15. Then it's back up to like one 10, 10, one Oh nine 15, one 10, 10. That's in the tenure. Say that 10 times, um, 30 year contribute back up to one, one tenant and a quarter. Uh, I've got offers didn't take profit there. And then above one 11, 11, and then up to one 14, uh, one 13, 27, then one 14, 14. Sorry.
[00:43:37] Speaker 2: Can we flip to my, can we flip to my charts real quick?
[00:43:40] Blake Morrow: Oh yeah. Please. Yeah, please. There you go.
[00:43:45] Speaker 2: Um, this is awesome. Cause we were talking about this last week. Exactly. Pax. Like we came in on Sunday night with this, you know, we had made higher highs on Friday and then the Sunday open and then we triggered down. So we completed our running formation and then we took out the 20 26 year to date lows of that one Oh nine 16. This was just perfect.
[00:44:08] Speaker 3: It is. It really is. That's, I mean, it was a setup. Yeah. I was banging away on, on, uh, to build on what we talked about on Sunday. I was banging away at that level, uh, yeah, no, not just trading. Of course I was, but in the, uh, um, the, the, the, the, my God, what do you call that thing? Discord and then Ninja trader live discord. So there's a couple of people, I think in the chat that actually caught that long.
[00:44:34] Blake Morrow: And you know what? I'm so glad I want to interrupt everybody here. And if you guys do not know about the Ninja trader discord, it is free. Um, the, the, the, the Ninja trader live crew is going to put it in the chat, in the YouTube chat. So this way you guys get logged in, get involved. There's all, we're all in there. We're all in there chatting. So sorry. Didn't want to interrupt you, Sarah. Go ahead. Continue on.
[00:44:59] Speaker 2: No, it was Pax was talking.
[00:45:01] Blake Morrow: No, no.
[00:45:01] Speaker 2: About how he banged it out. Yeah.
[00:45:04] Speaker 3: Oh, that's what you guys were laughing at. That's what I was laughing about. I don't know if anybody else got it, but I saw Favre laughing too. I didn't, I, what the hell did I say? It was so funny. I, I see. Okay. No, but listen, I seriously, that, um, uh, that Ninja trader live discord, discord, um, is very good. Blake is in there, you know, throughout the day. I'm in there back and forth throughout the day, you know, and we're, we're, we're both like throwing out levels, you know, live as live as they can. Be as, you know, as you type them in, you know, but, but, but keep an eye, you know, somebody, there was a, uh, uh, a, uh, I, I drink, I haven't drank coffee since my, my AFib and my heart failure. I started drinking coffee again. So sorry if I'm, I'm talking too much, but, and too fast, but somebody had, uh, there was a poll earlier about what markets are better to trade lately. The indices, gold, gold bonds, or I was surprised at the amount of you guys that said the indices are a better trade. The indices suck. The NASDAQ has been a good trade, but even that's always right. Well, you know, that's what my ex-wife thought too.
[00:46:18] Blake Morrow: All right. Well, Hey, you know, uh, you know what, uh, I'd like to do something a little bit different today. And, and farm, you brought up something a little earlier and I want to talk a little bit about the yen cause it's in my wheelhouse. So I do want to talk about the BOJ. Um, but I want to, before we wrap things up and remember, you guys got to stick around for the, for the, uh, crypto show afterwards, we're going to bring in trader main and, uh, and Ponzi traders. So make sure you all stick around for that. But I do want to go around the horn here. I want to, I want to know what you guys is best set up for the week is what levels you like, give me that one asset class. Give us that one actionable level that you think that everybody should be focused on. Uh, I'm going to make sure I get this from the entire crew here, but let's, before I do that, let's go talk a little bit about the BOJ and you, you open the door, um, uh, farm. So tell me what you're going to be looking at with the dollar yen. Why does it matter to you?
[00:47:13] Speaker 4: Um, really I've been watching that, that large breakout that we have, and I really am going to lose so much credibility if I talk anything macro. So I hesitate to do so, but, um, obviously right. You, you, you borrow in GPN, you pile it into AI or whatever, um, asset, just U S assets. Right. And I do think there's a risk of, you know, some repatriation. Um, it looks like they've been kind of talking about trying to, you know, nudge investors local, uh, in, in that direction. Will they accomplish that? Will they not? I mean, as the, the end continues to go to zero, uh, no such interest in that, but I mean, positioning is so insanely short there. Um, you would have to think, I don't even look at it, but I mean, like it could, it must be right. Um, I feel like the unwind could be, could be just incredible. We saw that in 2024 as of right now, this week, by the way, that started. So I just have to be careful, right? We're, we're sitting in this situation and like, I'm going to be labeled a permanent, which I think I already am anyway. So like whatever, um, but, um, there's a lot of similarities to, to then, right? I mean, dispersion, um, is now what it, what it was then, um, carry trade is now what it was then. Um, and we had that, you know, dollar yen sitting up here. This is a technical breakout to me. Um, but, um, if they find something to pounce on, they'll pounce on it. Um, and that can have some pretty significant implications. I just want to be aware of that. So for my long accounts, I'm positioned, um, relatively lower beta, some of the value plays, um, not a whole lot in tech and semis, but I know I'm really boring. Um, and then I'm just going to be continuously keeping, uh, hedges on, um, I think for the foreseeable future, sort of a, just in case the parallels are too similar, uh, to me to just fly up here, leverage long, um, without a care in the world. So that's something that I definitely want to watch. Um, I have some gold on the, and the question with gold is like, well, you know, recently, uh, it behaved as like a beta asset, right? Like a speculative asset. And it, it performed poorly when equities were down, has enough of that froth come out of it to where if the dollar does soften, does gold perform well? Um, and so since I'm a chicken shit, I'm in the miners instead of actual gold. Cause like, I think longer term they'll do well regardless. Um, but I'm definitely watching the dollar yen and as of now it's a breakout, but the fact that like NQ remains weak into this breakout is really, really fishy to me. Um, and I think that is suggestive and keep in mind that the tech weakness was not a result of the resumption of the war. Tech was weak. Tech was already weak. Um, and there's, there's some shit going on under the hood. Um, that has me very, very cautious here. And I usually, um, like to put a lot of my money to work when there's a clear shot. Stocks are cheap. Um, it's, it's a new bull market or a new bull trend or after a large dip. Um, and this to me in equities, isn't really the place and the time, um, to be piling in a whole lot of money. So I would rather sit in cash and then some very select investments, uh, that have, that have come down and I'll, I'll pick those off, but I'm just very cautious up here. And sure, sometimes I'm overly cautious. Um, I think that's true, but I also dodge every major drawdown and I'm always there buying it. So I'll go ahead and, and, you know, listen to the, have fun staying poor crew. Um, and then I'll buy their puke, uh, when they're, when they're margin called, that's my plan.
[00:50:39] Blake Morrow: All right. Well, you know, just, uh, just for, just so everybody knows, uh, the BOJ is meeting on Thursday night. It's going to be a big meeting. Uh, even my, a couple of guys from my team, one of them was a bank trader in Japan. Uh, for one of the major, you know, banks for many years on their desks. And everybody's kind of awake is going to be awake for this one because, you know, a lot of people are speculating that the, that the BOJ, uh, could, even though they're expected not to do anything, they might actually, uh, have the ministry of finance follow up with a possible intervention afterwards, which will shake the tree of what farm was just talking about. You know, we have a carry trade and the carry trades real. It's a real, it's a real thing in the markets where you have, you know, traders selling yen, buying anything and everything, you know, whether they're carrying a different currency, a higher yielding currency, because the markets continue to go up and they just want to capture the difference between the two, especially the institutional type of guys. And then you have, uh, you have a lot of traders that were just, you know, selling yen, especially in Japan, selling yen, buying, you're right. Any AI stock under the sun right now. So the BOJ, uh, uh, uh, is going to be really big. There's another chart. I want to show you guys when you're talking about gold, I want to show you this big descending wedge in the gold market. This is a, this is a huge one for me. And, um, although I do feel that gold is trying to bottom somewhere down here, but you, you can obviously see this is a, this is what we call a descending wedge descending wedges by default are bullish, um, developments. That means that at some point there's a higher probability we break to the upside of the downside. It doesn't mean it's going to break today. It doesn't mean it's going to break next week, but there's, if I had to throw a number on it, 65% chance we break higher, 35% chance we break lower. Now, the one thing that could get us lower, um, is, is obviously yields. If we see, if we see yields rally, we see the, the bond market tenure dump, we're going to see another low in gold, probably see that 3,900 level. I know we've talked a lot about 3,900, even on the Sunday shows that I've been here with you guys for the last, uh, several, several weeks, I believe. You know, that's a number that that's gone, gone around quite a bit. And you can see where we're obviously basing right now, but whether we can get there or not might have more to do with the fed. Now we got, we got about 10 minutes. Um, let's start with Sarah, Sarah, what is, what's the key market you're going to be looking at this week and what's the levels you're going to be looking at, you know, for an actionable idea for some of our listeners that are tuned in today?
[00:53:13] Speaker 2: It's a terrible week for you to ask me that question.
[00:53:16] Blake Morrow: Yeah, but everybody's going to get it though. Everybody's going to get it.
[00:53:19] Speaker 2: Okay. Gun to my head. I would pick RTY long.
[00:53:27] Blake Morrow: I'm sorry. Could you say that one more time?
[00:53:28] Speaker 2: I said gun to my head. I would pick RTY long Russell long.
[00:53:32] Blake Morrow: Okay.
[00:53:33] Speaker 2: And any, any specific level you're looking at, um, yeah, it would have to be above last week's highs. And then I'd want it like, uh, I, I don't know if I should say this in here. We call it a big green boner candle in our chat room.
[00:53:51] Speaker 4: Sarah, Sarah talking about boners, ratings shoot through the roof.
[00:53:57] Blake Morrow: Look at her, look at the, look at the view count on YouTube. It just went through the roof.
[00:54:01] Speaker 2: Crazy. That was crazy. All right. So that's what we, you know, that's what we would want.
[00:54:07] Blake Morrow: Okay.
[00:54:07] Speaker 2: And cause it's a bit of a pivot machine gun, right? So like there's stops at all these pivots. You could draw a cute wedge too. I'm sure here. Yeah.
[00:54:18] Blake Morrow: Love it.
[00:54:19] Speaker 2: Well, you get the idea, but.
[00:54:21] Blake Morrow: We do.
[00:54:23] Speaker 2: I'm used to my disjoint channel. There you go. There's your wedge.
[00:54:29] Blake Morrow: All right. Hey, that's good. I like it. We're going to, we're going to, uh, Pax, you're going to do the, uh, you're going to, you're going to get, what, what, what did you say that got the big laugh just earlier? Banging away. Banging away at the big green boner candle. That's awesome.
[00:54:44] Speaker 2: Oh, yeah.
[00:54:45] Blake Morrow: I'm not going there. All right. So, hey, Pax, what are you looking at?
[00:54:49] Speaker 2: I'd like, uh, uh, I would say, uh, what did, I'm sorry.
[00:54:55] Speaker 3: What?
[00:54:55] Speaker 2: He's got his rosary in his hand, guys. He's trying to bless me. Oh, my gosh.
[00:55:02] Speaker 3: This is hilarious. I'm always trying to bless you, Sarah. Always.
[00:55:06] Speaker 2: Thank you. Somebody's got to.
[00:55:07] Speaker 3: Oh, my goodness. Uh, gold is at the quarterly pivot, 4078. So I want to be short at 4,100. If we take out 4,78, I'll sell more. If we get above 4,100, I'll get long. 4,100 to 4,139 and then up to 4,215 in gold. And, uh, crude, I want it to be long at 83.5. I mean, uh, yeah, 83.5 at 83.50. Um, 84.91 is the, the, the, uh, the quarterly pivot for September for September. Well, the monthly pivot for September crude. And it ran right up to it and stopped. So if we take out 80, 84.91, I'll be long. I'll buy him there. And then I'll, uh, um, I'll take those back up to those levels. We talked about last week, 87 and then 93.30. The S and P, uh, the quarterly pivot is 75.08. Um, I'll be long above that short below it. I do expect the market is going to break. I do expect the indices are going to break out. Um, the NAS, well, as Farron pointed out, the NASDAQ is already broken up. Quarterly pivot there is 30,263. So the, the NASDAQ is almost 2,000 points underneath that. And the spoo's are, you know, 10 points underneath it.
[00:56:13] Speaker 2: What was the NASDAQ level?
[00:56:15] Speaker 3: 30,263. So, I mean, that's just how weak the NASDAQ is comparatively speaking to the S and P is that, you know, is that it's just so weak. 30, uh, 30,000, 263. So that is way up there. Yeah. That, that's how different these markets are right now. You know, it's awfully hard to want to be long S and P now, you know, anything. Oh, I wanted to also say this is, uh, um, prepare for the unexpected. Okay. Cause I really do think that we're going to break out this week with all of the earnings. And then, uh, you know, with, with the fed meeting, I think it's going to be important with the BOJ. I am bearish, you know, I I'm always bearish. I've never seen a bid. I haven't wanted to hit, but I'm prepared to trade either side of the market. So if we do take out 75 08, I'll reluctantly be long. If we do stay below it, we start taking out last week's law. I'll be short balls, man. I'll be short a lot. Um, but you know, be prepared for anything. Cause the, the, the, this could be an important week. And as farm pointed out two years ago, we, we, we, we, we, we had the yen carry trade start to unwind. The S and P broke from 57 21 to 51. I think 51 46 was a low 57 21 to 51 46 in like two weeks. Uh, I remember cause I did a spaces at Lollapalooza. I was at Lollapalooza listening to some rapper in my ear when, uh, um, when, when, when we were making those lows. So, you know, I mean, anything can happen this week. There is a lot of different stuff going on and the NASDAQ is poised for some downward movement. But you know, bonds, okay. Held that low 10 year, held that low. And you know, those are longs and, and the S and P or the crude is just a back and forth not crude. Uh, gold is just a back and forth, uh, trade. I am bullish crude. Um, you know, we got to get above 84 91 and I'll be more bullish. So that's what I'm looking at.
[00:58:14] Blake Morrow: Very good. All right. Well, well then let's go to farm a farm. What do you, what do you say? I mean, what, what do you, what do you think an actionable ideas here?
[00:58:21] Speaker 2: What say you?
[00:58:23] Speaker 4: What's all right. I'm going to go back to the, the big picture chart on the NASDAQ, um, because where most things are trading right now, I don't have a whole lot of interest, but here's how I think about trading. And I always ask myself before taking the next trade is like, how does this trade that I'm about to take compared to my last one? So, um, after this short here, um, I'm going to have a hard time getting it up for a whole lot. Right. So, um, what I would like to see is what I would, what I would trade meaningfully trade this week would be if we, if we do fail this gap up and we come down, we punch through these lows, maybe into 28,000 flat ish, this kind of range down here is a potentially trappy range. I feel like the NASDAQ could appear to break and then maybe even like come down to the may low. So depending on that, how that responds, um, I would, if we just get a quick sweep of these lows and reclaim, I would probably actually look to, to take a long, uh, I would take a hot shower, a very hot shower. Um, and I would have, have a barf bag next to me and hold my nose and I would look for potentially a move all the way back up to this 29, 269, 369 range. If that plays out in really, if it plays out, yeah, 29, 269, 69, um, I've contacted CME to actually adjust their tick size. Uh, so it could be 269, 69. That's right. So I would look for that long. Um, I really want to see all this playing out though. Like, am I really looking to do this out of the fed before earnings or something? No. Um, so that's a long, I would look for. I would look for a breakdown short. I would be very careful though. Uh, again, I feel like, um, if NQ breaks down, I think it might actually just head for, uh, it's May low and that's it. Um, and that could produce the, the bottom of a three month, uh, balance somewhere down here around 27, six, I should say, in which case I might actually look over then to ES because a long that interests me on ES is coming down and sweeping out this 73, 57 low, um, and finding some, some reactive bids around 73, 30, 73, 20s, what have you. Uh, so I might look for, uh, some kind of a failed attempt at expansion. Like Sarah said, this thing is stuck, right? It is stuck. So sometimes when you're stuck inside of a large range, you see these failed attempts at expansion, uh, that can then revert back the other direction. So I wouldn't mind to see if we, if NQ breaks down, then I might look to, yes, especially if something like the 73, 30s corresponds to NQ hitting like it's May low or something like that. I'm probably gonna be short NQ on the way. Um, but I might actually look to either hedge that, that NQ short with an ES long, or maybe just get out right long, depending on how ES or how NQ, I'm sorry, responds at that May low, but breakdown shorts on NQ. Sure. If it breaks range low, I'm going to short that mostly looking for May low. I'm going to be very careful there. Um, and if ES goes with it, I'll probably be short ES, um, as well. Um, but it's, it's actually more of the longs that interest me. It doesn't mean they're going to happen, um, but they interest me more, um, if they set up. And again, that would be sort of a failed breakdown of last week's low. Again, the June low, a proper sweep with some nice excess. I would look to run it back up. This four 48 to four 69 spot would be a key reclaim. Um, and then for ES, man, I would just love to see it punch through this 73, 57 low, maybe down into the 73, 20, 73 thirties. Um, and I would look, especially once it's reclaimed this 57, I would look to take a reversion trade back at least up to these 74 thirties, probably realistically back up to 74 69.
[01:01:47] Blake Morrow: Very good. Hey, Sarah, do you mind pulling up your charts for me real quick? Since I'm going to give you guys, um, maybe some levels I want, and if you can pull up the E minis, it'd be great. Um, kind of levels that I'm looking at, uh, as she's doing that, as she's pulling up the E mini futures, I'm going to, I'm going to, I want to wrap with a couple of things here. Hey, you guys, make sure you check out, you know, Ninja traders starting to offer this week. Uh, single stock futures, check out the pin message in the chat. And if you guys haven't got signed up for the, for the Ninja trader live discord channel, make sure you do that as well. Uh, our, our producers, our, our, uh, our staff's going to go ahead and put those in the chat, uh, box as well. Uh, so make sure you get signed up, come chat with us throughout the course of the week. It's great place. Um, all right, Sarah, thank you so much. If you look at last week's highs, last week's highs are right around the 75 50 level, just slightly above. That's also kind of coincides with the 618 retracement. So as long as next week or last week's highs aren't taken out this week, and if we can see them, maybe even on Tuesday, maybe even tomorrow, as early as tomorrow, we can see somewhere on that 75 50, 75 60 level. I like that level for a possible fade going into the fed. I think, I think, I think, um, for a fade, I'd be a seller up there. Yeah, I'm, I'm a seller up around those levels at 75, 50, 75, 50, 75, 60. Okay.
[01:03:05] Speaker 2: At last week's high.
[01:03:06] Blake Morrow: I'll sell that shit there.
[01:03:07] Speaker 2: So like right here, like a baby browning formation. He's looking to fade, fade this pivot high.
[01:03:12] Speaker 3: Oh, hell yeah. Okay. I'll take it.
[01:03:15] Blake Morrow: And because if you, because as traders, what we just tried to do is manage our risk the best we can. If we can find a level where we can say, look, I can be short here. I can keep a pretty tight stop. I don't have to risk a whole lot. And then you get into, you get into Wednesday and, you know, Kevin Warsh doesn't play ball or let's say he's just a little bit more dovish than the market likes. You would think as farm said a little bit earlier, you think that yields are going to go down. I think the bond vigilantes are going to come, come, come, come screaming and they might, they might actually take down the bond market. Yields will go up. You got to be long dollars in a situation like that and be short equity. So that's a level that I'm really going to be focused on. Hey, look, we got about, yeah, thank you. Thank you. And, you know, we got about a minute left. Any last minute words from the, from the crew here? Expect the unexpected. Ooh, love that. Thank you, Sarah.
[01:04:04] Speaker 2: Oh, join the NinjaTrader discord.
[01:04:07] Speaker 4: Ooh, like that farm. Let's do some banging this week, Pax. Yeah. You and me, buddy. You and me, let's bang.
[01:04:15] Speaker 3: I'll pay to watch that on your oldie fans.
[01:04:17] Blake Morrow: Oh man. And can, can we talk about boner candles anymore, please?
[01:04:21] Speaker 2: Arm's going to overextend his.
[01:04:24] Speaker 3: Oh my God. You just didn't. He's going to overextend what, Sarah?
[01:04:28] Speaker 4: Please go on, Sarah. Into your box. It's much needed. Let me tell you.
[01:04:34] Blake Morrow: Oh man. This show went downhill so fast. I love it. And I know.
[01:04:40] Speaker 3: Oh my goodness. I knew that was going to be funny.
[01:04:43] Blake Morrow: All right. Hey, you guys at home, make sure that you guys are sharing the love, telling people you're high and low what we do here at NinjaTrader Live. Give us all a thumbs up. Subscribe to the channel if this is your first time here. Go join the NinjaTrader Live Discord so you can learn more about boner candles. And what do you do, Pax? What do I do?
[01:05:04] Speaker 2: He bangs it out in the disco. Bangs it out.
[01:05:06] Speaker 3: Yeah. Bang out those bonds. Oh, Sarah, that was just, that was just. Bangin' the bottoms out of those bonds. Oh my God. Put it. Last week, like last week, oh, we got to go with the trader, with the crypto guys.
[01:05:20] Blake Morrow: We do. We do.
[01:05:21] Speaker 3: Hey, guys.
[01:05:21] Blake Morrow: Oh, we do. Yeah. It has been a blast and I hope you guys have enjoyed, but make sure you stick around. You guys got to stick around for TraderMain, PonziTrader, and special guest, CoinGuru. And I know these guys were kind of shocked a couple of weeks ago when we were looking at Bitcoin going, you know what? It doesn't look bad. And look, crypto's hold up pretty damn well. So make sure you all stick around. And guys, gals, let's get cracking, as Craig Shapiro would say. You guys have a great session. We'll see you throughout the week on NinjaTrader Live. All right, crypto guys. It's all yours.
[01:06:05] Speaker 5: Well, well, well, Mr. Well, indeed. It's boner time, huh?
[01:06:10] Speaker 6: It's boner and banging and clanging time, I guess. We got something to stand up for. I thought we were the crypto people who were like the non-PG, swearing too much, et cetera. But I guess not. The TradFi squad letting us know what's up. Welcome back to another episode of the Crypto Closeout. I'm TraderMain this week, not coming from a boat. And my boy PonziTrader is here. We got a lot to talk about. The markets have been moving. A lot of chat online about the bottom being in. It's time to accumulate. You only got a few weeks left. Has this price action, because effectively, you know, the bullhorns have been, you know, out in full force, I think, for most of July. And we've gone from 57 to 67, kind of just in this nice little grindy uptrend. We've had some altcoins pop off. What are you thinking? Has this changed your stance overall? Are you a bull market bottom-in believer or not yet?
[01:07:19] Speaker 5: Look, I don't speak in certainties. I would prefer to say that the bottom is not in. But most bottoms catch people off guard. And I would be caught off guard if this was the bottom. I'll just go ahead and say that. It's, I mean, it's a little, it's not as drastic of a bottom as it should be. It's been too short of time on the bottom. I don't know, dude. I'm not going to go as far as venturing and saying the bottom is here, but I am going as far to venture and take some longs because I'm having fun with those, especially on Ethereum. I think Ethereum looks pretty fun and mighty and spicy. What about you? Are you, how are you feeling?
[01:08:01] Speaker 6: I'm like the resident doomer still. Like, a lot of the clips that have been going out of me from my streams are just being like, everyone needs to calm down. You're not going to get rich. Like, don't fall into the hype because I do feel like in typical crypto Twitter fashion. And I think part of this is, you know, exaggerated because of what's going on with Ansem's coin and him airdropping and the trenches, quote unquote, being back. That this is kind of the same old, like anytime we get any sort of upward price movement, it's like the bottom's in. The bottom's in. Oh, my God. Time to allocate to all coins. Time to allocate to whatever. I've seen a lot of fractals thrown around. I mean, this is a fractal I just pulled of last July. Doesn't look too dissimilar to what happened here. And this was kind of our move up towards like 30K before ultimately having another low down to 15K. I don't believe that that one big sale, if we can even call it big relative to a stack from Saylor, is enough to be the capitulation low. Some people are saying, hey, that was it. Saylor selling some Bitcoin was the low. Maybe they're right. I just feel like it's too comfy, kind of like you're saying. Like, I know it catches people off guard, but I feel like it's a pretty consensus, bullish argument, at least on Twitter. Short term, I see reasons to be a bull here, though. So my high time frame view is nothing's changed. I think we've got a few months still. I think at best, we just go sideways through the summer. At worst, we have one more low. But with the now de-escalation in Iran, U.S. calling off some strikes, Iran calling off some strikes, oil dumping, stocks near their range lows, I could see an argument for some short-term bullishness across the board to continue here as Bitcoin's held up pretty well through all of this.
[01:09:57] Speaker 5: Do me a favor. Look at Ethereum, dude. I'm honestly, like, I got this tummy feeling that, like, maybe this time is different on Ethereum. Do you have too much dairy again? Yeah, way too much ETH dairy. You know how you get when you're eating cheese. I think it looks good, dude. I think it looks time, like, maybe for some relief and to lead the charge. Let's take a look at ETH BTC together, shall we? Let's hold each other's hands.
[01:10:18] Speaker 6: Yeah, one-line analysis. It's broken out of the trend line.
[01:10:21] Speaker 5: Single-line analysis, and that's based analysis to you, buddy. Single-line-based analysis, guys. It looks so good, dude. Look at the daily on Ethereum.
[01:10:31] Speaker 6: Dude, look at that monthly, bro.
[01:10:34] Speaker 5: Yeah.
[01:10:34] Speaker 6: Like, this is the most promising-looking high or low that this chart has had in five years. Like, quite literally, like, this is the most, it's been a crazy downtrend. It's like, okay, maybe we put in a low, a high, and it's like, hey, if a higher low is going to happen, this is exactly where it should.
[01:10:55] Speaker 5: Oh, dude, I don't want to be that guy that goes on Ethereum for the fifth year in a row and is disappointed. But, I mean, this could be a trade here.
[01:11:03] Speaker 6: Like, you know what I mean? It's all relative to where you buy. Like, if we buy ETH, if you're in ETH from, you know, anywhere under 2K, there's probably a move back into the 3,000s, even if ETH never goes back to all-time high. Like, there's a trade there. It's just, would you rather buy just Hyperliquid?
[01:11:24] Speaker 5: No, let's look at, let's go ahead. Let's look at the hype ETH pair. Is that a thing? Can you do that? Yeah, you can. But you got to, like, hype, USDT, ETH, USDT, is that how you do it? You got to throw a slash in there? Yeah, just use the little equation button. There we go. I mean, dude, you want a long hype ETH here? Like, this is what you want to do? Not necessarily, but long term. Wait, what was the pair trade that we concocted last time we were on the show? Oh, my gosh. Was it Cash Cat and some or some shit?
[01:11:55] Speaker 6: Yeah, and I think the part that wasn't correct was Ansem didn't end up going up. They both just went down. Wait, how did we even concoct that? You basically, I think you're on deck screen here, and you're just like, money's going to rotate out of Cash Cat. It's going to pump it to Ansem.
[01:12:12] Speaker 5: Look at this chart. We're winners, bro. The Cash Cat and Ansem chart. Are we, though? Because I don't own either. I do own Cash Cat. I mean, Ansem, no Cash Cat. I sold my Cash Cat. I gave up on that one. But I mean, this is, if I showed you this chart with no tickers, you'd be like, oh, that's kind of cool. I mean, looks bullish, right? You could say, ooh, higher, low, higher, low, higher, low. And it looks like it's going to break out.
[01:12:35] Speaker 6: Yeah, I think, I'm just like, I just, I know CoinGuru's coming on. He's going to be a lot more kind of into the memes than me.
[01:12:44] Speaker 5: But I'm feeling really good about ETH, dude. The more I look at this chart, the more I just want to like full port ETH and sell every asset. Are you long already? I am, but not much size, dude. I used to put on like 5K ETH size. And now I'm like... That's too scary right now. Now I'm a 10th of that.
[01:12:58] Speaker 6: I think ETH very comfortably can trade up into the $2,100 to $2,300 area.
[01:13:07] Speaker 5: Oh, that'd be sick.
[01:13:09] Speaker 6: Relatively soon. Assuming it can kind of hold above this high. But that to me is Bitcoin trading up above $70. And then I think both of those become fades. So I agree with you.
[01:13:23] Speaker 5: You know who didn't sell their DAT treasuries?
[01:13:26] Speaker 6: Tom Lee. Tom Lee. You know who did? Is that big? But doesn't, whatever his strategy copycat is called BitMine. They don't have the same type of juice fee structure that they're paying out every month like Saylor does. Correct?
[01:13:47] Speaker 5: I don't know. I don't know anything about BitMine. I really don't.
[01:13:51] Speaker 6: I'm almost certain. Like he hasn't. That's really what fucked Saylor over. It's just having to pay out all this juice on all of these like kind of derivative financial products and Ponzi's that he created saying, hey, yeah, we're, you know, factoring in an annual growth rate of this on Bitcoin. Therefore, we can support X dividend payment every month. I don't know if BitMine has that same Ponziomics, Ponzi economics, whatever you want to call it. And so he hasn't had to sell. I mean, it hasn't changed that he's down billions, 10 billion, maybe less now, maybe less now because ETH is up. But I see it, dude. I see ETH going well into the 2000s, I think, here. I think I'm tentatively bullish this week.
[01:14:36] Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, like I said, I'm holding ETH long from 1906.
[01:14:45] Speaker 6: 1906. Okay, so you logged like within the last day? 48 hours. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this is a breakout, right? That's what you could assume. I don't know. This all looks like trendline liquidity that's just going to get wiped. You know what I mean? Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Anytime you have this super clean lower highs or higher lows on Bitcoin or ETH or really most cryptos, they always get smacked. That's what I kind of see building on Bitcoin as well, though, is like kind of this very clean uptrend where none of these lows have been contested at all. So one more move up, right? One more low. Nuke the whole thing. What do we think?
[01:15:32] Speaker 5: Do we love it? I do. Picasso? Nuke the whole Picasso. You're drawing that thing, dude. But what's going to be the catalyst for the new game? The catalyst?
[01:15:42] Speaker 6: I mean, the war in Iran is going to be back on and then over and then back on for the 50,000th time.
[01:15:50] Speaker 5: Can I make a claim without getting attacked? Can you say something real quick with no one getting mad? Yeah, go for it. Can I say something without getting an FBI show up at my door? But there's going to be like an attack in the U.S. by the Iran for us to justify absolutely leveling it. And then it's going to be like 9-11, 2.0. Do you think it's a false flag or do you think it's a real attack?
[01:16:09] Speaker 6: False flag. All right. Ladies and gentlemen, you heard it here first. Alex Ponzi Trader-Jones believes there's going to be a false flag attack in America that is going to be the black swan.
[01:16:23] Speaker 5: And that's how we get our juicy long entry.
[01:16:26] Speaker 6: People have to die. That's insane. What a trading strategy. I think there's still a seasonality aspect to this that people are missing. Like a June-July rally is exactly what happened in the last four-year cycle bottom as well. I think this is June. This is right into the first couple weeks of August. And then we had quite a bearish end of August in a September, October, November bottom. I could see the same thing happening here. And I would, in fact, you know, love it. But I think the plan for me is pretty simple. Anytime Bitcoin goes below 60K, I think it's worth buying some. My lower bound of where I think it can go is, you know, definitely lower, right? Could go into the 40s, maybe really high 30s. But I kind of think this 40 to 60 area, just kind of rounding, really the area is, you know, 38 to 57. But I just think that that's good value, both from a time and price perspective. So I'm slowly accumulating some spot. And if we get any more dips below, I'll buy some more. I definitely think it's time to pay attention to crypto because we're getting deeply discounted prices. But I'm not quite sold on the bottom being in yet. But short-term bullishness, sure. However, liquid's been kind of underperforming a little lately.
[01:17:55] Speaker 5: And I mean, I kind of like it. People aren't happy about it. I don't hate it, actually, right now. For longs? Yeah, I'm not like a hater for longs here. I think there's a pretty sick, I mean, if you're long from 57 with an invalidation below 52, aiming for 71. I don't hate it, dude.
[01:18:16] Speaker 6: I think the dream scenario here on Hyperliquid is to be able to buy it, like, sub 45. One more time.
[01:18:24] Speaker 5: You said that sub $2 on Lit was, like, a place for us to all in when we last talked about it last week. It hit 198 in neither of us long. What are we going to do about that? We should hire somebody to manage our money for that. We just tell them things. Remember that? I know.
[01:18:38] Speaker 6: I think there's a profession that might do that. I really need someone to just execute my plans for me. Exactly. Look at this chart, actually, dude. Look at the wick on that weekly candle, bro, on the downside.
[01:18:56] Speaker 5: Frick.
[01:18:58] Speaker 6: That's right into our zone we talked about, bro.
[01:19:01] Speaker 5: Yeah, that's it.
[01:19:03] Speaker 6: Reclaim these lows. Reclaim the mid-range. Full send. If we get another move up on Bitcoin and ETH, etc., like, over the next week or two, I think this could go and make, like, single baseline analysis. Like, if it just breaks above this, probably new high, probably $3 lit.
[01:19:23] Speaker 5: Guys, if you're watching this, tell us in the comments what charts you want to see. I know there's a bunch of assets that you guys are curious about, but yes, I agree with you immensely, man. I mean, my only concern is everybody front ran the Robinhood news, and this is probably profit-taking, but it's still undervalued nonetheless.
[01:19:40] Speaker 6: Yeah, I can't wait for a year and a half from now when there's a bunch more actual crypto companies that make money, and we're going to have to start taking in revenue and tokenomics and actual economic factors of these underlying businesses into account when we look at the token. Because hype, in my opinion, other than maybe BNB, is the first coin where I'm, like, looking at it, and I'm like, okay, like, yeah, I want to trade the chart, but also I want to just be long this company.
[01:20:12] Speaker 5: All right, we got some people in the comments that want to see some stuff before we do that. It's our time. We're bringing in somebody who's been retired for the last six months. He made $700 million on-chain. He's actually the founder of Pump Fund. Nobody knows it yet. Coin Guru, welcome to the show. Come on in here. Let's talk about why you're coming out of retirement and what the next 1,000x is going to be.
[01:20:35] Speaker 7: Can you guys hear me?
[01:20:37] Speaker 5: Oh, loud and clear, Toast.
[01:20:38] Speaker 7: That's wonderful news. Did everybody miss me? It's been a very long time. I came out of hibernation for this.
[01:20:43] Speaker 5: I mean, I actually, I dropped the link in my chat, and someone goes, damn, Coin Guru's coming out of retirement. What's the next, what's the next Talos?
[01:20:53] Speaker 7: That was only like a, actually, I think that was like a 33x. How's it going, guys? Thanks for having me. It's going good, man. How are you?
[01:20:59] Speaker 6: We're an unbelievable intro for guys whose profile picture is a piece of toast with bread on it, butter on it. It's unbelievable. It's unbelievable to see it blown up to full size. Normally, I just see you as a little circle on my phone.
[01:21:11] Speaker 8: People accuse me of that being mayonnaise for like many years, and I've had to go back and forth with people that it's not actually mayonnaise, because I don't know people that put that amount of mayonnaise on their toast like that, or let alone.
[01:21:22] Speaker 6: Is it looks like bread, not toast. Yeah. And like, who puts butter on bread? Like, don't you want to toast it?
[01:21:30] Speaker 5: You want to go ahead and give us the context on how that became your alien? We've got some questions.
[01:21:35] Speaker 8: I graduated high school at 103 pounds, and I looked disgusting, and I was like, all right, it's probably time to do something about this. So I started going to the gym, and I didn't know much about macros or eating right, so I just figured that every day I'd literally just slam an entire loaf of bread, and that loaf of bread being toast. So I was in the library in like 2018, studying for some college exam, and they actually had a toaster there. So I brought a loaf of bread, and I was eating an entire loaf of bread in the library, studying for some finance exam, which I didn't graduate anyways. And then I made my Twitter profile picture a piece of toast. You could probably Google butter toast, and my profile picture would come up, because I just took it right off the internet. No way, you got IP rights on that now? Nope, definitely not. Doesn't matter, though. Mean coins don't. They still get hundreds of billions, so.
[01:22:28] Speaker 6: Slamming an entire loaf of bread might be insane. That being said, when I was going through my weight gain journey, I was trying to drink a gallon of milk a day. Me and my friends called it Go Mad.
[01:22:41] Speaker 7: Oh, I've heard of that, actually. It works, though, doesn't it?
[01:22:44] Speaker 6: Yeah, it works like crazy. There's some side effects that aren't so great. I can only imagine. It definitely gets the job done. So, dude, I mean, you made $700 million in the trenches. Yep. You retired, and now you're back. Yeah. Are you believing, like, are the trenches back? Is the bull market beginning? Are you seeing stuff on chain that is like, hey, you know what, yeah, there's a few people, but it's still that same kind of hotball of money? Or do you feel like there's new money, actual new people coming in?
[01:23:14] Speaker 8: If it makes any difference, I have not bought a coin on chain since August of 2025, and I bought my first coin last week, and I lost 99% on it. It was a coin called Foreskin, hood.
[01:23:25] Speaker 7: Oh, my goodness.
[01:23:27] Speaker 8: Of course, dude. Yeah, I mean, it's a good return, though. Like, if you come back and you hit 1,000x on your first trade, then I don't think – then I probably shouldn't be in crypto. Like, I'm just way too lucky or way too skilled, which I'm not because I'm just, like, a wash old man now. I just turned 30 on Wednesday. So, is it – oh, man, I actually just found out that you're 43. 43 and a half. Dude, I thought you were early 30s. I'm not even, like, buttering your biscuits, man. He's not actually 43.
[01:23:55] Speaker 6: It's a running gag on my stream where I just tell people a random age, and I just do it to make myself feel better because they're like, you don't look 43. I'm like, that's good. Yeah, okay. So, purely for my narcissistic requirements there, I just want people to tell me I look young and pretty.
[01:24:11] Speaker 8: That makes sense, but – Okay, so your foreskin is missing. It's gone, you could say. Yeah, foreskin is missing. Yeah, and I bridged to stable chain and then hit – actually made some decent money there, which is somewhat exciting. It was, like, Robinhood, then everybody jumped to the new chain, stable, just because if you miss Ansem, right, then if you miss Cash Cat, everybody's looking for the new cash hat. Stable launched the chain? Stable, the competitor to XPL. Yeah, when did that happen? I mean, they've been live for nine months, but the founder, Heather, tweeted, I did a dinosaur meme called Pfeffer because that's how he pronounced it.
[01:24:45] Speaker 6: Aren't we invested in the pre-sale for stable? Yes, we are. Yeah, they scammed you guys, right? Are we making money or is this good news or bad news?
[01:24:52] Speaker 8: It's great news because I think there's, like, something like 100 – there was, like, 500,000 transactions processed, you know, done in, like, a matter of 24 hours. And that's, like, 1,000x what they've had over the last nine months. So it all it takes is pretty much one meme coin to, like, lay the foundation for a new chain. But, yeah, so I bridged there. Not a lot of liquidity. I think there's only – I think there's, like, $20, $30 million that bridged. Nothing crazy. But, yeah, it feels good to be back. You know, I'm definitely not retired. I had to get a job, which I actually think is the very bottom of the crypto markets is me getting a job. Like, bought a car, bought a watch at the very top, and now me getting a job is likely the bottom. It's just very cliche and it makes sense. But, yeah, it's for the first time in a long time things are fun again. Do I think that there's fresh money coming in? No. Do I think there's just more people that are sidelined in stable coins actually allocating those stable coins on chain? Yes. Like, most trenchers I know who I haven't talked to in a while have just been sitting in USDC or USDT. And then, you know, they'll just create a little slush fund account and just fire at random bullshit all day long. And now that bullshit is actually working. It's sticking. Although, it's not conditions where you have to, you know, you just log on and you just buy some bullshit. Now you're up, you know, 1020x. That just doesn't exist right now. You actually have to, like, be focused and, you know, have good information flow and the whole nine yards. But, yeah, it's actually fun again. It's that it's I don't know if you guys remember, like, on chain in 2023 around, like, when Pepe launched and that. It was, like, when you were buying coins on chain, it gave you some, like, nice little feeling inside. It gave you, like, that crypto is kind of back. I guess that's kind of what it feels like in a sense.
[01:26:31] Speaker 5: Same feeling you get at a casino table, huh?
[01:26:34] Speaker 8: Yeah, which I was there last night and I did win. Speaking of which, how did you do?
[01:26:36] Speaker 5: Did they take advantage of you or did you take advantage of that?
[01:26:39] Speaker 8: No, I fondled them for $8,000, which is great. Let's go. I gambled for a total of, like, size for, like, five minutes last night. Walked in, bet on $11, $11 came out. I won, like, $7,000 there and then some hit black and then lost, gave back, like, $5,000, $10,000 profits. And, yeah.
[01:27:02] Speaker 5: I love the parallel to the trenches with the casino. It's honestly probably the most accurate representation you've had all week, all year, huh?
[01:27:08] Speaker 6: So, Gur, I want to ask you, because you are a trencher. Yes. Things are feeling a little bit fun again. What's your thoughts on the Ansem coin situation? Do you think this is a good thing? Do you think this is a bad thing? Do you think it is good for the trenches? It's bad for the trenches? What do you think?
[01:27:27] Speaker 8: I think it's hilarious that he managed to – no coin has gone to, like, $300 million since, you know, probably 2025. And then all of a sudden, he just decides to CTO some coin called the Black Bowl, and now it's at, like, $300 million. Do I think it's good? Yes. Do I think Ansem is, like, predatory when it comes to, you know, trying to extract from people? No. So, if that was the case, then it would be absolutely terrible. But I do think – to my understanding, he has airdropped, like, millions and millions of dollars to people, which is good, where he's not, you know, he's not DMing his buddy and giving his buddy 1% of supply, and then his friend's, like, OTCing it out or, you know, paying some KOLs or something like that. So, I think it is – I think it is good. Do people hate it? Yes. But, like, people hate on everything. It doesn't necessarily matter if it's good or bad. People just find a reason to hate on everything. Now, will – now, will that money go elsewhere? Like, you can obviously tell it has because there was an inverse correlation between Cashcat and Ansem. Cashcat went up, Ansem went down. So, that just brings it back to the original conversation of how there is definitely no new money flowing in. If two completely different chains have main runners and they're inversely correlated, but I think that's a lot to do with FOMO, the app, because now you don't even have to bridge. And, like, all your money is just in one place. You can just buy, sell, buy, sell across, you know, six different chains without having to – So, you nuke a coin on Seoul, buy something on Robinhood. It's super easy.
[01:28:54] Speaker 5: Yeah, I will say FOMO has made that all really fucking cool.
[01:28:57] Speaker 8: You have a really good FOMO history, Ponzi.
[01:29:00] Speaker 5: Dude, my FOMO P&L is all-time horrible. I think it's, like, minus 100.
[01:29:05] Speaker 8: Yeah, it's minus 100K or something. And you're actually on my referral link, so I do thank you.
[01:29:10] Speaker 5: It's minus 180K now, especially after this last week. I did the same thing, just fired them into a bunch of Robinhood coins. And it's weird, man, because, like, FOMO should be making the execution better. But, like, for some reason, my P&L there is just worse. And then I'll, like, raw dog front end, you know, Jupiter. And then I have, like, a 300K P&L. I'm, like, less is more sometimes, you know?
[01:29:34] Speaker 8: Yeah, that kind of happens, though, where if you just buy something on Jupe, you got to go through the whole process versus, you know, firing something. We don't have to put a single brain cell towards thinking about it. Yeah.
[01:29:45] Speaker 6: You got to really want it the other way, right? You got to be willing to bridge or whatever you have to do. You got to find it. Whereas I feel like sometimes when things are easier to buy, it's a little easier to be impulsive.
[01:29:55] Speaker 5: That's a really good point, man. And probably, too, you get, like, the shiny thing. I noticed I was really chasing, like, different coins on FOMO. So, like, I would buy something and then get impatient and then sell it and then try to chase something else. And then that was, like, my demise, you know?
[01:30:08] Speaker 6: What they do unbelievably well, I think, is the gamble-fi aspect of it, like, with the leaderboards and things like that. Like, it does create that kind of, like, impulse of, like, oh, like, I want to have a P&L on the FOMO leaderboard. You know, the flashing light syndrome that, like, stock slot machines use. I find they've done a really good job capturing that element of meme coin. So, CoinGuru, let's talk about Bitcoin here real quick. I'd love to get your thoughts on, you know, the bear market that it's been. You were around last bear market. I feel like consensus, Ponzi and I probably agree, this bear market doesn't feel like it's been nearly as severe as the last one. I mean, we're, I think, peak high to low, we went down 50-some-odd percent, right? Like, we didn't even hit 60% off the high. Nothing crazy is blown up. Like, I know sailors had to sell, but even that seems minuscule relative to, like, FTX imploding. What are your thoughts on this so far? Like, do you think the bear market's over? Like, how have you managed over the last several months?
[01:31:18] Speaker 8: I think why it doesn't feel as bad is because we're all older and more mature now. And for, like, the first cycle ever, we probably actually cashed out and bought real assets where you kind of have a nice little, you know, nice little nest egg where if, you know, your Bitcoin goes to zero and, you know, your meme coins go to zero, you're not going to be on the streets, you know, outside of 7-Eleven begging for an taquito. So there's – that's probably why it doesn't feel as bad. But also, like, as you said, nothing's imploded. Like, the last two – I think the last two bear markets, right, were – or at least, like, giant crashes were just from, like, systematic risk. And it was just from, you know, some kind of – someone was borrowing from somebody, but that has yet to happen yet. So it's just been a slow bleed and just kind of, like, everybody just, like, slowly leaving the stadium instead of just, like, a bunch of people screaming and running out at, you know, 1,000 miles per hour. So how have I positioned? I pretty much have little to no crypto exposure anymore, which I have not for almost a year now. Am I going to buy back crypto? No, because I don't have much in crypto anymore. And it's – for me, it's been this way for 10 years now. It's a take-only market, and I will refuse to this day to ever put money back in this market. I think if you've been here long enough and you've, you know, taken a bunch of money out, you should never hit that checking account to put money back in because that just – it just starts kind of, like, a bad spiral, and it should be a take-only market. But maybe if some seed deals materialize, will I buy some Bitcoin? Yes, 100%. But from a chart perspective, I mean, it doesn't – we're just above 2021 all-time highs in, like, the monthly, right? It's – or just around them. Like, it doesn't look terrible. And I just am always wondering, what is going to get people interested again? You say that every cycle. It's like, you know, the first cycle, it was – it was TRX got people interested. Then, obviously, everything was going up in 2017. Then it was, like, NFTs and meme coins in 2021. And then now you had, like, you know, government regulation now. And then you had all these dats. It's, like, now what actually gets people to go up other than – you know, to buy crypto other than number go up and then the FOMO kicks in?
[01:33:24] Speaker 6: Yeah. I mean, number go up is the best narrative there is, I think, always for crypto. Like, people are always, like, who cares? I'm, like, the moment it starts ripping 10% in a day, people come back naturally. It still has this ability to be, like, this really high beta asset class. GCR has a really good quote. I don't remember it exactly, but he's, like, just when you think cryptos run out, like, they invent the new Ponzi. Like, there's always – there's always a new casino game. There's always a new reason for people to get back involved and do something that you can only do in crypto. I think the biggest risk to crypto really is the hyper-perpadization, if that's even a word, of traditional markets. Something that TradFi is now taking from crypto where you're going to be able to trade probably within the next year everything in a perp. Like, every stock, every indice, 24-7, 365. Like, that seems to be the singularity that we're heading to. It's, like, all things lead to just perps, not options. Why deal with confusing, you know, expiry dates on options when you can literally just trade a perp, 365, 24-7 on everything.
[01:34:36] Speaker 8: Yeah, options have actually, like, never worked in crypto. I don't think ever. People have tried it a million times, but just never works. I think it's just too confusing for a lot of crypto people. We're not nearly smart enough to do options properly.
[01:34:48] Speaker 5: Yeah, you need a lot of liquidity to properly do options. And there's just, like, not enough liquidity nor people interested to service that liquidity. So it becomes expensive to even, you know, keep anything resting in books. So it's just, it's, there's not enough participants to justify options.
[01:35:09] Speaker 8: What was the big options exchange that got acquired? Derby, yes. Is that still around? I haven't heard that name in two, three years.
[01:35:17] Speaker 5: I don't know.
[01:35:18] Speaker 6: Aren't they just using it for liquidity now?
[01:35:20] Speaker 5: Like, they're going to sunset the actual platform? I don't know. I traded on there a little bit and had a lot of fun with it. And that was back in, like, when things were really, really, really hot. You need, like, proper momentum for that stuff.
[01:35:34] Speaker 6: So, Guru, you're, you know, as someone who's a sophisticated investor, you know, buying coins like Foreskin, you know, really sharp guy. Like, do you look at the macro at all? Like, are you watching, like, we got earnings call, like, we have earnings calls this week for some big companies. Some of the Mag7 stuff has been underperforming. You know, we got Fed meetings, you know, the BOJ meetings. Like, do you look at any of that or you're, like.
[01:36:01] Speaker 8: I just look at the VU or the VTI. I have a financial advisor. All we do is just shove money in the VU or the VTI on dips pretty much. And then, you know. Wait, is it the one we told you to fire? It's somebody else now. Yeah. So, no, I don't look at it. I mean, there's no reason to look at that stuff if you don't plan on selling for 30 years. Like, do I care about, like, if it goes down 10, 20%? No, I'm just going to buy more anyway. It's the only time I am going to look at it. Just have alerts set up on TradingView. You know, the S&P 500 goes to 6,000. All right, shove six figures in. And I'm not trading, like, you know, Mag7 or, you know, I wish I was trading Micron. I wish I bought Micron at, you know, $300 a share. That would have been fantastic. But did you guys catch any of those trades? I know you did pretty well, Ponzi.
[01:36:44] Speaker 5: I caught it really late. I was, like, I was a big fader in the first half of the year. And then come, like, April, May, I was, like, okay, this is not the top. And then I started to play the game. And I had fun. But I was late.
[01:36:58] Speaker 6: Some of the AI stuff looks kind of blow-off toppy. Like, if you look at the big ones, like SanDisk, like, that's the worst it's looked in a while. I actually haven't looked at it in a while. Yeah, it's, like, a lot of this stuff looks kind of sketchy. Micron. Tesla got absolutely annihilated. I know.
[01:37:19] Speaker 8: I don't get how none of these crypto people caught this trade. It's pretty much, everybody in crypto has been looking for some decent AI adjacent play for years. There was, like, Tau. And then there was grass.
[01:37:31] Speaker 6: I know, and then the actual AI stuff came out.
[01:37:33] Speaker 8: Yeah, and nobody bought it. And then people are just shitting out millions of dollars.
[01:37:38] Speaker 5: You know who did? I'll give it to him. Frank. Frank D. God's actually caught it.
[01:37:42] Speaker 8: He did, yeah. I saw some posts in his, like, his Schwab account. It was, like, plus three mil or something ridiculous.
[01:37:47] Speaker 5: Yeah, he made good money off of it. All spot, too. No derivatives. No options. It was good.
[01:37:53] Speaker 8: He's actually a good trader.
[01:37:55] Speaker 6: He gets shit on, but he's a good trader. He really does get shit on. This is typical CT. Like, what I've learned after being on this godforsaken website for my entire life, it seems like, is just literally ignore everybody all the time. Like, just don't listen to anyone. No one knows what they're talking about on there. And people will shit on people. And it's like, this person did this thing. It's like, I don't know, man. Frank, I've always thought, was a very intelligent person. You could tell by the way he talked and spoke. And, yeah, he got hyped up on the, you know, goat and crypto random AI plays. And then everyone's like, oh, what happened when you said these coins were going to be transacting on the internet capital markets and whatever else. He gets a trade wrong. Everyone, like, holds it to him. We all get stuff wrong all the time. And out of the few people that I follow that caught the, you know, AI play, like you said, he was one of the few crypto guys that I saw was banging on about it quite early on. I actually think what you said is very, very interesting about crypto being a take only market because I operate very similarly. And I think when a lot of people watch my streams and stuff, I sometimes come off as like this doomer. But it's just because I've like, I've been here long enough, like you said, to see multiple bull runs. And we've, you know, you cash out. Like, I don't know the last time I bought net new crypto. I could not tell you. Like, it's always been. Yeah, but you also never cashed out, you said. You told me you never cashed out. I know, but I never cashed out to like, I never like cashed out to the bank. But like, I don't, once I like clear the dollars, I keep it in dollars. Like, I have Bitcoin that I want to own long term that I've bought. But I just have a massive stack of stable coins that I build up. And I try and very rarely put money back into the exchanges or anything like that because I'll lose it. Like, I will. Like, if I have a big P&L week trading and I don't withdraw it, I will lose it. And this is something that I learned over the last couple of cycles where I keep a large sum of money on the exchange. FTX happens or I have a great trading week and then I have a bad 48 hours and 50% of the money that I made over the last two weeks, I wipe in a day. Whereas now I just put in a smaller balance. I try and run it up and then I withdraw back to that small balance. And that has made me more money, I think, than anything. And I always kind of tell people, I'm like, guys, like, the vast majority of you are never going to ever make any money in crypto. Like, that's a reality. And I think it's not one that's ever talked about. Everyone's like, we're all going to make it. You're going to be the guy who makes 50 million on Trump coin, like kimchi. And it's like, but you're probably not. It's like buying the lottery. Like, you might win and you do have to buy the tickets to play, but you're probably not. And so if you do make money, yeah, like buy some shit. Buy yourself a car, buy a watch, buy a house, change your actual life and use it for what it is. It's a casino where, yeah, sometimes you can have slightly odds in your favor, but the vast majority of people here are purely gambling. And the ones who do get lucky and get hot, a lot of them never take out. And I think that really hurts them. And that's why we see so many of these posts of people like, you know, trenchers and meme coin guys who are like, well, back at zero, I'm done. Like, it's like, dude, weren't you up like a few million last year? It's like, yeah, but they never left the casino.
[01:41:20] Speaker 8: That actually brings me, I've had, I wanted to ask you guys this question before I even got on that break. Kind of like, it kind of points out to what I wanted to ask you. So you guys, so I've been kind of struggling with this and I don't really know how to get out of this mentality. And like somebody I respect in the space, like one of my mentors kind of, he told me I can't usually think like this. It's how do you guys continue to take ample amounts of risk on a daily basis while having to provide for like your wives, your family, you have a mortgage, a whole nine yards. Because like if I lose a trade or if I lose something like minus 10K, that's like three mortgage payments right there. And like, obviously you're confident in your abilities, like you guys have had your businesses, your podcast, whole nine yards, but like what keeps you driven and not scared to just continuously take risk? Like pause, you take disgusting amounts of risk.
[01:42:09] Speaker 5: I take, I take a lot of risk and I'll preface that by saying it's the only reason I'm not trying to have a kid right now. Because I know every year my risk aversion shifts immensely. And as of now, it's my, it's my wife and I, right? Like that's, that's who I provide for. And like, I've set aside money to be able to do so. But the moment I have a kid, it's like, I need to set aside 20 years worth of money to do so. And I can't just put like the house on the line like that. I can't. And those types of risks that I take sure they can like bankrupt me or whatever, or they can hurt me, right? I'm not going to say they can bankrupt me, but those are the things that I won't take those risks. And therefore I may not catch those upsides. And some of those risks are some of the most rewarding if you hit them, right? So that's why I won't be having a kid for like the next two to three years. Cause I'm not done like swinging for the fences. Um, and it'll just shift my appetite. Like sometimes I'll sit in a drawdown and I'm like, I'm fine to lose this amount. But if I have a kid sitting to my right and I'm like, wait, this drawdown is his college tuition. Like maybe, maybe I shouldn't do that, you know, then it starts to mess with everything. So it's more about just like having some set aside so that the risks that's on the table isn't enough, um, to zero me, uh, but still enough to, to make it fun.
[01:43:24] Speaker 6: So there's, uh, like, I think most banks are scams. Like when you deal with the financial advisor at the bank, the stuff they try and put you in the investment portfolio, you know, they try and say, Hey, you got to invest in 65% equities, 35% bonds, whatever. However, there is one thing that they do at the bank that I do think is actually very accurate to this conversation, which is the weighting of your portfolio changes with age, right? Like as you get older, you value different things. When you're young, when you're young, you are more risk on naturally, you have less dependence. You have less to worry about. You don't own a home. You don't have a significant other. You're willing to take risks and you have the greatest asset of all, which is time. You know, Ponzi had a post the other day. I think you were 23 and you're like, I fucking lost it all, right? I'm starting from zero again, 23. He's now still not even 30, the son of a bitch. And he's made it back. Um, so you have, you have time. If I were to lose it all at 43, I'm almost 50 by the time I make it back. And that's just crazy. So your risk, like your, your weighting of your portfolio and how much risk you're willing to take on, it just skews. It's like a, it's like a, you know, a, a speedometer, like it, it changes as you age. And, um, the older you get, you value things differently. You want security. You want more consistent, reliable sources of income and gains. You're going to be more risk averse because your time horizon shorter. You have probably larger carrying costs in your life, a wife, kids, a dog, a car, a house. And, um, those things just change. And so as someone who's older, like a hundred percent, the stuff I was doing five years ago is drastically different than the stuff that I do now for many reasons. That being one of them, it's like, I've made enough where I don't need to ever put myself in a risk of ruin anymore. Ever. I haven't had the risk of ruin in a very long time in my trading. Whereas when I was younger, like every trade was potentially the risk of ruin. Like I had my whole net worth in, uh, you know, a trade that's no longer the case. So I think that that just changes as you age and you have to, you have to go along with that change. You need the liquidity, right? You want to be able to make sure you can provide and be comfortable. I think a thing that's massively overlooked in crypto Twitter, like crypto Twitter, it's like, unless you trade to make all of your money, you're a scammer. I think you should have as many sources of income as humanly possible while trading. It will make you trade better because you do not have to rely on that 10 K to pay the mortgage. Right. Um, and the last thing I'll say on that is, uh, Ponzi kind of touched on this. Like I never take a trade anymore where the amount of money that is at risk, if I'm wrong, is an amount that would cause me to lose any sort of sleep or stress me out at all. And absolutely that takes out the potential upside. Uh, but the downside in trading is as likely, if not more likely than you actually making money, you're probably as likely or more likely to lose. So I just make sure that amount that I stand to lose and is the amount that I'm completely comfortable losing. And if it means I'm not going to turn 10 grand or I'm not going to shove a million dollars into a meme coin and turn it into 50 million, uh, you know, so be it.
[01:46:38] Speaker 8: Yeah.
[01:46:40] Speaker 5: So how have you been taking risks toast?
[01:46:42] Speaker 8: No, I take absolutely no risk anymore. I'm actually, I'm actually, dude, I'm like, I'm so old, man. I have rental properties. I don't take any risk.
[01:46:49] Speaker 6: I have invested in the, you've won the game, bro. That's what, this is what winning the game is. You make some money in crypto. You actually leave the casino and then you buy some real shit that actually makes you real money that you can use to pay for real things.
[01:47:02] Speaker 8: That's all I wanted to do. It's for, for years, that's all I want to do. Just because, you know, I have this little, this little nest egg where if I do lose all tomorrow, like I know I'm going to be fine. It's just, and people, for whatever reason, I've done this too. I've tweeted about this in a million times, but like people shit on jobs, having a job in crypto. I don't know why. It's just like, oh, you should be all in. I think there are certain times when the market's very, very hot where it's definitely, you know, negative EV to have a job where you can't pay attention 24 seven, where if, you know, you leave the computer, you're missing out on that thousand X. There's, but like having a job is actually great. When you have like something that covers your basis every single month, then you can just continue to like take risk. And I think that's what's hopefully going to change now that I have a job. I have like a job that covers my basis and now I can actually enjoy taking risk again because I'm not worried that I have, you know, I'd not be able to cover my basis. Granted, I have a ridiculous spending problem. And I think you do too as well, Ponzi. You mean the guy who just bought a plane? Yeah. Has a spending problem? Yeah. And another car? Yeah. The guy has a crazy, worse than me. I thought mine was bad. Yours is, yours is beyond even, I can't even come behind it.
[01:48:07] Speaker 5: It's really bad, dude. It's like the only solution every time is just make more money.
[01:48:13] Speaker 8: Yes. That's what Ledger told me. Like 2021, we were in New York City and I was just like complaining. I wasn't, you know, I wanted to buy this. He's like, dude, just shut up and make more money. Like that's what it just stuck with me. It's like, if you want something and you can't get it, just make more.
[01:48:28] Speaker 6: I had an old boss in sales who encouraged us to buy things outside of our means so we would sell harder. And it's like, it is just a fact. Oh yeah. He's like, yeah, no, you should get the car that you can't quite afford because then you're going to be like, yeah, I got to sell. And it does work. Making more money is generally the solution, I think, for most people. I mean, when I first started getting to know Ponzi, I was convinced this guy was like a billionaire. He's like, yeah, I got a plane. He has like seven new cars a year. It's crazy watch collection. Like he just always was like balling out of control. And I'm just like, dude, what is going on? But he always found a way to make more money, make it work. Right. The plane is generous. It's a tactical buy, right? He gets to depreciate that. A lot of people don't see the second layer thinking. He's kind of slowly spinning up planes he already had into bigger planes every time. Capturing the depreciation is a tax write-off. You know, so I mean, that's the game, bro. It's a never-ending game. And I think people who are so myopic that they're like, you only have to trade to make money. It's very silly. Like I'm trying to find as many ways to make money all the time. You know, crypto is one of those avenues. But as I make money in crypto and in other things, I'm looking to deploy it elsewhere. It's what every person who is successful does. They don't have all their eggs in one single basket.
[01:49:50] Speaker 8: And I think that's why all these meme coin traders that they just, the 2023 new guys have just all zeroed out because they just continued to reinvest the millions they made back into meme coins as liquidity was just leaving the trenches. And people were just PVPing over like the same stupid cat coin that's been launched 150 times instead of, instead of, you know, buying real stuff. But I think that's what, you know, being in crypto for three cycles does to you. You see people, all you, you know, people in your group chat see you out. You see horror stories on Twitter. You see that stupid confessions page. It's just a total roll bit LARP page, whatever it is. They're just like, oh, you know, I did this. I lost all this money. I had, you know, $50 million at the peak. And that's what three cycles does is just security. So, uh, yeah, that was, that was, that was probably my, that is probably my current biggest concern. And you guys kind of gave me some, some good clarity on it and kind of put me in a better place to think moving forward that I just could pretty much need to take risk now that I have a job, but also like, don't risk the house.
[01:50:52] Speaker 6: Dude, just be an amount that you're willing to lose. Like it's, it's really math, especially if you believe you have an edge. Like it is, it is math. Like you've taken enough bats, like at bats, like to know, like, okay, based on how many times I fire into X, Y, Z coin, like my likelihood of making money is X, you know, and, uh, you can just say, Hey, this is my bullet size that I'm comfortable with. And that's just what you stick with. I think it's a problem. A lot of people have is they don't take it beyond gambling and try and realize you can be a lot more systematic about the risk you're taking and manage your downside in a very calculated way. Uh, but yeah, dude, there's a lot of dead bodies on the, on the way to the peak. Right. Every time I'll be like, whatever happened to this guy? And you go and you check their page, like damn last post 2022. You're like, ah, it sucks. So, um, you know, it happens to the best of us, but yeah, I, I agree. I think it's a very good point, dude. Take our market. Um, you know, I, I think any money I make in crypto, I consider a blessing and, you know, I want to use it to, uh, uh, you know, stack chips in other ways and to deploy into other stuff and try not to step back in the casino. I think what we see in the bull run, especially people confuse skill with, um, luck. Yep. Right. And that's why those guys who ran it up a few times, like, oh, I can do it again. It's like, no, you just like had a 1% of a 1% outcome and you're just going to re-roll the dice. And usually that doesn't work so good.
[01:52:16] Speaker 8: I will say though, that now I think that the trenches and meme coins do take more skill than they used to. It's just really the tooling that it's all this tooling, man. Like I can't compete with these 20 year old broccoli zoomers that live in Miami and they're just, they're, they have Twitter trackers up. They have, you know, they have nine different terminals and they see something and they're just slamming 10% of the supply with like $850 and cheating, you know, 45 seconds later for like eight to 10 K that's just, that's way, way, way too above me now. It it's, I I'd rather just wait till there's some kind of established narrative and buy in the three to $5 million range. And then hopefully it, you know, sell it at one, two, $300 million, but this whole of this whole, you know, buying new coins, like right out the gate is way too difficult.
[01:53:04] Speaker 6: Yeah. I think that's something that changes with time too. Like, I mean, Ponzi still trades relatively low timeframe. I'm completely transitioned into swing trading. Like that's all I do now. I don't do any sort of real low timeframe speculation. I'm like a long-term investor in Bitcoin and a few others. And then I am a relatively medium term swing trader, like similar to you with meme coins now where you're like, yeah, I want to catch a runner, like something that is established and there's a chance it's going to run for weeks as opposed to hours. It's kind of the same transition. I've seen videos of some of these guys and they're like Twitter trackers going off. They're like screen capturing, you know, something that's posted reverse image, searching it to see if it's a legit meme, like instantly buying. It starts going up. They're instantly getting out. Yeah, dude. It's a job. It's a job. I think the Fortnite video game, you know, fast Twitch muscle kids, it is something that I'm like, I look at it. I'm like, dude, I have no idea where I'd even begin in the trenches, but they seem to enjoy it. So let the kids have fun.
[01:54:09] Speaker 5: I will. So I will say I started trading futures and I have a new set of rules. It's like I only trade between the hours of like 8:00 to 6:00 PM and my hit rate, win rate and equity curve on my futures account is insane right now. It's been only three months. So obviously the sample size is small, but it's the best trading I've ever done in my entire life. And it's been only a little time frame scalping and Q and yes, and I honestly want to see how long I can keep it up because it's it's like something I've never experienced before and I'm stoked on it.
[01:54:42] Speaker 8: What's your edge? Are you do you like code something with Claude? You literally just draw boxes on the yes.
[01:54:48] Speaker 5: No, I'm just I'm literally just watching order flow and price action and like, you know, maybe there's three days where I don't take a trade, but like I'll just play extremes and I'll play both sides. It's the first time I've played both sides on like shorts and longs and been successful on both. And I don't know. I just feel in tune with with playing the extremes like I'm having fun with this range and it feels insane. I've never been able to like play a range and have fun with it. Besides when I set this new rule for me, it's like take the trade. And honestly, it wasn't even a voluntary rule. I was using it up for leverage where my intraday margin rules had changed. Um, so I had to close my positions by 5:00 PM where I was forced liquidated. So I wasn't holding anything overnight. I think, I think the variance on holding swings for me was messing up a lot of my P and L and just the scalping thing has been a lot of fun.
[01:55:40] Speaker 8: And now that you've gotten a little taste of trad fi, does this, would you say it's easier than crypto or harder? And if you continue to do well and your equity curve just goes to the moon, are you just going to abandon trading crypto? No, not at all.
[01:55:54] Speaker 5: The one thing I did learn specifically was that perps are expensive, dude. Like all the fees. If I put like a 10, $10 million position on perps, I'm paying 10 to 20,000 in fees for execution in and out, but I can put on like a 10 to $15 million futures position. Um, and I'm paying like $1,000 in fees or less. So that obviously really affects the scalping execution and edge and expected value because you need to be profitable in perps when putting on size, um, high leverage size, or you're just going to get absolutely destroyed by fees. Yeah.
[01:56:35] Speaker 6: I mean, the, the futures market is so unbelievably efficient relative to crypto. The liquidity is so much deeper. Um, it's just such a more sophisticated market. I've traded both for a long time. Um, I definitely wouldn't say trad fi is easier, but if you know how to trade crypto, you absolutely can use the same strategies to trade the trad fi market. Like the stuff you're doing to trade crypto, maybe not like the crazy trenching meme coins. Like thread guy had a tweet, I think where he said like, or it was like a podcast he did with someone who was like, yeah, you know, meme coin traders are well-equipped to trade. Yes. I'm like, I don't know about that. But if you're a trader, like Ponzi trades, you know, big size and swings on like the majors crypto, that kind of trading does work in the equities markets as well, but it is unbelievably more efficient. Uh, and the competition is a much higher level. Um, not just from a peer to peer, but also from, you know, the HFT bots and, uh, the quant funds and just kind of the, all the other stuff that you get, but it's coming to crypto. Anyways, crypto is becoming more efficient and soon everything, like I had said, is heading that perp singularity. I think it's all going to be one in the same. Like you're just going to be, it'll be like, do you want to trade perp a perp B or perp C today? And like, that's just going to be life. You're going to have a perp on your wife. You're going to have a perp on your job and you have perps on people. Um, it's, it's just, that's the future that we're heading towards. I think everything's going to be a perp. Yeah. I concur immensely as long as being kind of mean to me, I'm going short.
[01:58:20] Speaker 8: I guess what's nice though, is that like, at least if you're trading equities, you don't have to worry about some nonsense tweet or some hack or something. No, you still do bro.
[01:58:32] Speaker 6: Have you met president Trump? Okay. The KOLs are just way bigger on, uh, on equities. It's the president instead of Ansem.
[01:58:43] Speaker 7: Yeah.
[01:58:44] Speaker 6: I didn't think about it that way.
[01:58:45] Speaker 7: Yeah. It's nuts.
[01:58:47] Speaker 6: It's real. Ponzi is calling for a black swan for false flag attack. Um, that is probably going to move the perp market.
[01:58:55] Speaker 5: So, or the trade or main of Canada is involved with trade or main of Canada is involved with the false flag that will be occurring.
[01:59:02] Speaker 8: I had the same thought last week, Ponzi too, that something similar is going to happen. I think a lot of people are thinking that I don't think you're the only person.
[01:59:10] Speaker 5: Yeah. It just got a shit. It's like, it's like the classic dude. Like we, a lot of people are losing faith in the U S and not supporting them. And you're on movement. It's like, we need a bunch of people to die in the U S for the U S to be like, Oh, time to level around. Isn't that nuts? Yeah.
[01:59:27] Speaker ?: Yeah. Yeah.
[01:59:29] Speaker 6: Yeah. Like that, that, that's, that's as a, as a Canadian. Um, I dunno, like it's, it's just a different view because like Canadians, I feel like are not a super prideful nation. Like the idea of nationalism in Canada. Uh, it's almost like it, well, it's absolutely viewed negatively now. Uh, but even growing up, like when we were talking nationalism, we were like, yeah, we want our hockey team to win, uh, against the U S in the gold medal game. Uh, we can't even do that anymore. Uh, but I do believe Americans still have this really fear. It's a, it's a genetically coded into y'all like this fiercely kind of national pride level feeling. And that it is easy to route. Well, easy is the wrong word, but that can get riled up by something like that, where it's like, yeah, it's us against the world.
[02:00:18] Speaker 8: You ever go to, you ever go to a baseball game and they sing the national anthem. I'm in tears every single time.
[02:00:23] Speaker 6: Dude. I mean, they rip the jets over just for no reason. And I'm like, it makes you feel good, man. Even for not American.
[02:00:32] Speaker 8: It makes you feel freaking good. It warms your heart.
[02:00:35] Speaker 6: Uh, I just stroked a check to the government here. And like, it's definitely not going to be too stealth bombers that I'm going to see fly
[02:00:43] Speaker 7: over the next Vancouver Canucks game.
[02:00:46] Speaker 6: My money goes to Ukraine directly. Actually. I have just Zelensky's wire information at this point. And I'm just like, how much am I doing? You're welcome, Mr. President. Thank you. I'm glad I can support you in the war effort. Was that my fault? Nothing to do with me.
[02:01:02] Speaker 7: I make it political. I don't think so.
[02:01:04] Speaker 6: Well, we've got a few minutes left here, man. Um, do you have, we do this with every guest. We ask for your predictions. You've come out of retirement. You're over the hill. Now you're 30. And as someone who's already in his forties, let me tell you, it only gets worse. So if you're feeling shitty now, get used to it. Uh, it gets exponentially worse over time. Ponzi will understand eventually. Um, what are your predictions to absolutely put you on the spot with no preparation for the rest of this year and then next bull market. So where do you think Bitcoin is, you know, end of this year? Are we higher or lower? Will there be another lower, lower or not? And then what is your call for the next all time high?
[02:01:43] Speaker 8: I have this chart on my Twitter when I bought my first house, then two rentals, my 911. And then my two watches every single time that I purchase a big purchase. The markets went down 20, 30% within the next 24 hours. So I think that now we're seeing that on the opposite side where I actually, I got a job. So I actually do think this is the generational bomb just based off of that.
[02:02:07] Speaker 5: So I think that we will trade bottoms in fully bottoms in on, on BTC, like no more lows.
[02:02:12] Speaker 6: Um, just so you know, whatever you say next Ponzi is going to
[02:02:18] Speaker 8: um, I, I don't think it's going to be a V bottom. I think it will probably be some kind of chop solidation where, uh, where this probably is the bottom, but this, okay. But obviously, you know, is it going to go up or down? It is, if it goes to 40 K at any point, I think that would be a V bottom. If we wick into forties, I think that would get gobbled up pretty quick. Like low forties or stuff like that high thirties. That would probably be a V bottom. But if we do bottom run here, which I think we are, I think it'll be some kind of chop solidation until something happens, whether or not the clarity bill gets passed or, uh, you know, somehow sailor is no longer a threat to Bitcoin, which I don't know how that happens. Cause I, all that shit really confuses the hell out of me. And nor do I even care enough to, to look into it. Um, and, uh, and do we, do I think we make new all time highs? Yes. But I don't think we'd make new all time highs until sailor has been somewhat eliminated. Interesting.
[02:03:21] Speaker 6: Okay. Somewhat eliminated.
[02:03:23] Speaker 5: I feel that vibe. Yeah.
[02:03:25] Speaker 6: I don't, yeah. Less sailor overhang, the better, I think is a pretty consensus crypto take these days.
[02:03:30] Speaker 8: And then you know what's going to happen, right? This happens every cycle. It's, it's your price starts going up a bunch and then there's no risk in the market, right? Bitcoin's naturally going up because, you know, real, you know, Coinbase flows are, are high, et cetera. And then some fucking dude that thinks he has a big dick comes in and just starts over leveraging and borrow everything to buy some asset. And then all of a sudden now there's all this risk. And that happened to happen to happen above a hundred thousand dollars. And now we're at 60. So if we, you know, sailor does get eliminated and we wind up going to 100, 200, is it going to be the same thing again? Is it going to be a sailor? Someone similar to sailor? Probably. I don't know how they're going to do it.
[02:04:06] Speaker 6: What's going to be trader main, but this time we're making him cool. Yeah. We're doing it right. Okay, dude. Well, Hey, this has been awesome, man. We thank you so much for coming. So you guys heard it here first. The inverse coin guru top signal is firing. He's got a job. He's got a nine 11. He's got rental properties, but now he's back to work. Meaning the bottoms in up only from here, dude, thank you so much for coming on and welcome back. We're looking forward to seeing your tweets a little bit more. It's good to see you active again, bro.
[02:04:39] Speaker 8: Yeah. This actually gave me some motivation to get, to actually get involved in crypto and start to tweet again. I have been struggling to find that. So thank you for having me. Let's go, dude.
[02:04:49] Speaker 6: Well, guys, we're going to wrap it up here for the crypto closeout. I'm trader main Ponzi trader, my cohost here. here. We will see you guys next Sunday.
[02:05:24] Speaker ?: We'll see you next time.