STOCK MARKET OPEN: The Week Ahead, Market Analysis & Live Day Trading

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We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. [00:07:42] Speaker ?: We'll see what happens in the game. [00:07:44] Speaker 1: We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. [00:08:04] Speaker ?: We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. [00:08:28] Speaker 2: We'll see what happens in the game. [00:08:30] Speaker 3: We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. [00:08:36] Speaker 4: We'll see what happens in the game. We'll see what happens in the game. It is a beautiful July the 27th, I believe. And wow, this camera is pretty low right now. Let's see if we can fix that up. Maybe improve our posture a little bit. See what's really going on in the market today. Folks, I hope you had a phenomenal weekend. When I left you on Friday, things were a little bit suspect. Things were pretty freaking rad. There was a lot of questions of what's going on. Is this the actual breakdown? And then as we pretty much all could have predicted, a bit of a taco situation playing out. And all of a sudden the market is exactly back to where it should be. And things are very, very green as of this moment. I say as of this moment, because as I'm going to show you in a few minutes, there's a lot of negative gamma beneath. So this whole pump to the upside, not only do we have a downside gap fill, not only just where the high was on Friday and the spine and cues, but I'm even talking about the market open in terms of the futures market, ES and NQ, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. There's a new week opening gap, a NWOG, new week opening gap, which is to the downside. So putting the structural setup and the negative gamma, I just want to throw it out there that maybe this isn't the opportunity to just randomly rip it right at market open, because there might be some profit taking of people who are a little bit scared from last week. So should be an interesting open beyond that. We're still in earnings season. We have a lot of high flying, very popular tech stocks, and just generally popular stocks to get into. So I want to break all of that down. And as you can tell, if you're looking at the time, your boy actually kind of got started. I don't know back when I should have been getting started. And, you know, folks, I do appreciate you dealing with me and the team as I'm trying to get back to the normal schedule. Obviously, for any of you in here who are a new parent, you know that sometimes getting back to your normal work schedule is not necessarily the easiest thing, especially when you have a newborn screaming you at you at four in the morning because the milk was four seconds late. And how dare you ever possibly do that? So I just want you guys to know I appreciate you. The patience that you guys have been showing me. It is off the charts. I and the rest of the team doing everything in my power to get back to quote unquote normal or whatever the new normal is going to be. So I guess this week we're going to try to rip it and just try to do what we can possibly do to get back to the exact things that you expect. So like I said, today is kind of that first show back of like, no, okay, we're breaking down everything going on rather than just ripping it at 930. And if I'm being completely honest with all of you, I kind of miss it because I that half hour set up before the market goes. I think for me and for all of us involved, it kind of puts our head straight of what to be looking forward on the day. So that's what we're going to be doing. And let me get this switched up so you guys can see exactly what's going on. I want to fix this a little bit. I really don't like where the desk is at today. What in the world is going on with the desk? Everyone hold tight. [00:11:41] Speaker ?: Everyone can reach out to me. [00:11:49] Speaker 5: That doesn't seem right, doesn't it? [00:11:51] Speaker ?: That doesn't seem right, doesn't it? [00:11:53] Speaker 5: That doesn't seem right. [00:11:55] Speaker ?: That doesn't seem right. [00:11:57] Speaker 4: That doesn't seem right. That doesn't seem right. [00:12:01] Speaker 2: That doesn't seem right, doesn't it? You got to be honest, that one doesn't feel right. [00:12:15] Speaker 4: Hang on, this feels really tilted. Did I accidentally zoom? Something about it, something, something about it, you know? This is probably the stuff I should have been doing off camera. And well, now the angle's off completely. How about that? How about that for a random attempt? Oh, dude, I might have nailed it on that one. I might have nailed it on that one. All right, well, first problem of the day solved. Let's see if we can figure out any of these other issues. So right now, just the turn of the hour. 9:00 AM, the SPY's up quite a bit. We closed out at 7:39. It's up 0.8%, trading at 7:45. The Q's are up 1.3%, closed out at 6:84. Currently trading at 6:93. Bitcoin holding decently, it's at 65. And as you can see, oil's down about 6%. It closed out in the realm of, I don't know, roughly 90 a barrel. It's down to 84. And this is probably one of the best barometers for the tension going on in the Middle East. So lots of things to get into. Not only are we getting into the structure, the positioning of large players and all that good jazz, but we also have to talk about some of the bigger picture stuff, what's happening in Iran, but then also remember individual equities. What's this week three of earning season? And there's a lot to talk about. So taking a, I guess a step back and looking at the larger picture here. Dow futures rally 500 points as oil prices fall after the US and Iran pause attack. So what's this? The 19,000th ceasefire of this particular conflict. So maybe this one will hold, but I've also learned to not hold my breath on it. US and Iran pause fighting to give peace talks space. So kind of like you and your middle school girlfriend right before that winter formal where you need a little bit of space and everything should be fine. And then all of a sudden you show up at winter formal anyway, and she's there with Jake and you're like, Hey, I thought we're going to have a little bit of space. And they're like, Oh no, I thought I like interpreted a little bit differently. And I'm just here with Jake now. And you're like, but I didn't ask Stacey because you said we needed space. And then all of a sudden, why are you here with Jake? And why wouldn't we talk about this before? Like, it's one of those situations that's completely not real at all. And that's a general one that probably has never happened to anyone, especially a person who would be streaming about it. So anyway, it's kind of like that, like maybe it's happening, maybe it's not happening. And we don't know if this one's going to stand, but it was enough to obviously have an impact on the market where the spy, the cues are sky high, oil's coming down, Bitcoin's holding decently, volatility is coming down decently as well. Here's kind of a quick little TLDR on it from Bloomberg. [00:15:01] Speaker 6: Seemingly for the time being, what is the potential of this going back to a flare up situation? I mean, I'd say reasonably high. [00:15:09] Speaker 7: What's not clear is the reasons behind the pause. And then that informs kind of our thoughts about what might happen going forward. So we don't know exactly why we can make a reasonable guess, though, at least in part. It is concerns that are twofold. One, they had 13 consecutive nights of attacks on Iran. And yet that didn't really seem to diminish Iran's ability to threaten shipping. We saw attacks on ships throughout that period, including at the end. So it didn't seem to be getting very far. Number two, you know, there is a serious issue here with U.S. defensive munitions. You know, they're having to draw from stockpiles in Europe and in Asia to keep those going. They are very effective, but they're not infinite. And given that Iran seemingly has an almost bottomless supply of things like drones, you've got this imbalance there between the U.S. ability to defend against those as well as Iran's willingness to launch more and more of them. So that's maybe one part of it. The second part of it is, as you said, there's these talks that happen between Oman and Iran. Maybe there's some headway being made there in terms of resolving some sort of authority or a series of authorities over Hormuz. And I think if they can resolve that, that's at least part of the way there. [00:16:18] Speaker 6: And that was going to be my second question, right? We've reported that the deputy foreign ministers have met, the delegation left on Saturday. And then what we see in the Strait of Hormuz is a blockade still at play despite the pause essentially by the United States on the attacks. What is the status of the movement right now in the Strait of Hormuz? This is important. [00:16:39] Speaker 7: The issue really stems from what Iran sees as its position on this. So it points to its interpretation of the MOU that they signed in June, which, according to Iran, gives its sole authority over Hormuz. What seems to be happening now is some discussion with Oman about maybe a joint authority. Or you have two different routes going through there, you know, a northern route and a southern route. Maybe they're controlled by the two liberal states. There's some financial arrangement around that. Again, that's all very vague. So that seems to be the direction of travel. But we're not getting details, so hard to know. [00:17:11] Speaker 6: Yeah, not getting details yet. [00:17:14] Speaker 4: Not getting details yet. And I don't know. I feel like we're stuck personally on this hamster wheel of throughout the week things amped up. And you could see it kind of on the daily. Things get pushed down, down, down. And not only do we have this rhetoric from the U.S. and Iran, but also specifically from Trump of, hey, like if a single person is injured at all, we're going to start bombing this, that, the other thing. And then tensions pick up. They calm down over the weekend. A lot of people end up selling volatility. And then by the time the market opens next week, we start off higher. And then it's kind of wash, rinse, repeat. Like we get this gap up and we grind down all week. We get this gap up. We grind down all week. That pattern has been persistent. Will it continue forever? Obviously not. Like we don't, there's no such thing as a pattern persisting forever, but we'll see how it goes. Obviously, structurally right now, there is an upside gap fill, but oddly enough, when we open, we also will now have a downside gap fill because we are actually opening above the high from Friday. So we're honestly just in this really weird gap thing now. There's a gap above, gap below, so it'll make the market open probably really difficult to play, like more than normal. So I just want to throw that out to everyone. On top of it, remember outside of the world of Iran, there's another big Trump development. We got this last week. Why Trump's new tariff blitz is very different this time around. The Trump administration on Friday unveiled new tariffs on 60 trading partners, basically just saying, hey, that 10% deal we had, we're going to be redoing that. And also some of them are going up to 12.5. The new duties land in a markedly different economic environment from last year's Liberation Day announcements as global markets grapple with the continuing effects of the Middle East conflict and ongoing inflationary pressure. Speaking of which, don't forget FOMC meeting is this week. This week is a very big week. The FOMC, excuse me, starts tomorrow, concludes on Wednesday. So just mark your calendars. Understand if you're swinging options between now and then, there's going to be a lot happening between now and then because it's earnings season, craziness with Iran, and also the FOMC meeting. Investment strategists warn that the renewed trade tensions risk a structural drag on global growth. So we're talking about Iran, we're talking about tariffs, and all that sounds bad, but yet everything's pretty sky high except for oil, which is coming down. Will it hold? I mean, your guess is as good as mine. Actually, that's a great question for right now. We're going to talk about this rhetorically, but for all of you, this pump right here that we are seeing in the SPY, the Q's, the drop involved, the drop in oil. Do you think this is the time to be bullish or do you think this is just the classic bull trap and all of a sudden we're going to like just come right back down to where we were? I was looking at the four hour chart on this of how, if anything, we just kind of pushed outside of a various Keltner channel. Hang on, let me show you. We just kind of had like a two, three standard deviation move to the low side and that happened right at the 50 EMA and SPX. I was kind of expecting some pop, like we're not really in the clear quite yet. You could see here on the four hour, we're still pretty comfortably trending down. So this shows a little bit of a different picture rather than if you're super zoomed in. So I guess my question to all of you, is this a bull trap or is this the time to actually get going? Morning Devotion has raided the stream. Shout out Morning Devotion. That's pretty nice of you. It's a trap. It's a trap. Bull trap. All right. Well, obviously time will tell. So just wanted to get your thoughts on that. Just so you know, we did get durable goods coming in way lower than expected. This came out this morning at 8:30 a.m. They expected 1.6 came in at 0.3. Tomorrow we're getting consumer confidence. These are both important. I'm not trying to belittle them, but the real show gets going Wednesday when we're going to be getting the, it's the second FOMC meeting of the new chair, Kevin Moore. So right now the expectation is no change to the interest rate whatsoever, but it's going to be interesting. Is he going to have any more commentary on dot plot? This is not a dot plot meeting, but if you remember in the last one, he wasn't sharing his dot, his expectation of where unemployment interest rates, all that good jazz is going. So it'll be interesting to see his commentary. Is he going to be saying, yeah, no inflation is still being stubborn and all of a sudden are the odds of a rate cut going to disappear and we're actually going to get a rate hike. So that's going to be a big one this time around. We get inflation on Thursday and GDP on Thursday, a little bit of PMI stuff on Friday. Monday and Thursday are huge in terms of the overall market, understanding monetary policy. Please mark your calendar. But don't forget, we are in a huge portion of earnings season. So today there's not much going on. I mean, obviously, maybe you care about some of these, but the real show gets rockin' tomorrow. Before the market opens, we hear from PayPal, Boeing, Coca-Cola, UPS, all very important. Tomorrow after the market closes, we hear from Ford and Visa, obviously massively important. Wednesday, SoFi, then the show is poppin' off. So Wednesday, not only do we have FOMC during the day, but after the market closes on Wednesday, Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood, Arm, I just put Arm and Robinhood together. Robinhood, Arm, Qualcomm, Lamb Research, Chipotle. These are all huge. Fast forward to Thursday. MasterCard, after the market closes, Apple, Amazon, Roblox, Reddit, Rivian. And then on Friday, we have some of the energy plays, Exxon. We have Chevron, Dominion Energy, a little bit of a pharma play, Moderna and ABV. So quite a bit going on this week. Wednesday is going to be insane. And obviously that means the fallout also into Thursday is probably going to be crazy because this happens all after the market closes. So whatever you're doing this week, you probably want to cancel it. You want to probably properly be paying attention to the market because this is going to be a wild one. NVIDIA talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion of financing for data center. Project would be one of the largest AI computing hubs and involve power control by the U.S. government. So a lot of the same threads we've been seeing play out for the past couple of months are once again playing out here. This kind of like circular financing of NVIDIA giving someone money, that person then giving NVIDIA money back by buying their chips. And now the government's getting more involved and we've been seeing that trend, obviously, especially with Trump and Intel. And that keeps going. So once again, another very similar sounding chapter, what we've been hearing for AI. But once again, big price tags associated with it. And I don't think it's going to be going anywhere anytime soon. Chipmaker source 466%. Yes, you heard me right. 466% on debut become the number one in China stock market. Beijing backed CXMT has 484 billion market cap after the first trading day and gained share in global memory business. So at least when you have these random new debuts in the AI world, it is as hot as ever CXMT. It is not on the U.S. market. Once again, this is in Beijing back. So if you're able to trade in international markets, you're going to have to have the proper brokerage to do it. But just kind of pointing out that this isn't like 484 billion. We're talking half a trillion. Does that make it the biggest stock in the world? No, but it also doesn't make it negligible. Like this is something very important. That's a huge debut. Now, remember, if you are set up to be able to trade this or maybe you're watching from China and hey, what's up? I just want to let you know. Look at the SpaceX IPO. A lot of these times when things make their market debut, the people doing the IPO, these banks, they do their job really well. They develop a lot of hype, but it does not hold. Once in a while, you can find a counter example of an IPO holding and continuing up and up and up. But the most common, I guess, performance from a stats perspective is a lot of hype. It gets pumped and then it gets dumped. Does that mean it gets dumped forever? No, eventually all these good companies, they find their bottom. They create a formation to kind of bounce off of. They find that foundation at the bottom and then they start trading, quote unquote, normally from there. But just to chase the hype, it's generally not a good move. So I just wanted to share that on CXMT. But more exciting is, okay, maybe the AI trade is still very much alive and well. Chipmaker CXMT's 466 market debut surge makes it the most valuable China listed company for now. CXMT held a 7.6% share of the global, this is just memory market DRAM. You can kind of see some people are making ETFs and whatnot related to memory. Think Sandisk, think Microm. In 2025, according to the IPO prospectus, the company raised about $8.6 billion in its IPO. The company plans to use the IPO proceeds mainly for mass producing memory wafers. So this is another memory play. The closest comparables, Sandisk, SNDK, which we know has gone sky high in the past year-ish. Micron, another one that is heavily now pivoted to being a memory play. These are some of the high flyers and they're probably at this point the best bellwether for what's going on in the world of AI. So wanted to share that, that going into this earnings week when we also have a lot of major macroeconomic developments, we're also finally getting, I suppose, an indication of the market's appetite for what's happening in AI. But specifically the subsector of memory where people are, at least in China, are more than willing to buy, buy, buy. And now you can do it even more degenerately. Traders are getting a new tool to wager on the biggest U.S. stocks. So this is going live tomorrow. You might have heard of it. I'm talking about single stock futures. CME Group will launch single stock futures, allowing investors to hedge or speculate on more than 50 of the U.S., largest U.S. companies. The contracts will be cash settled on the closing price of the stocks they're tied to. We'll offer leverage without the complexity of options, a.k.a. there'll be a linear product. So think of the way that ES and NQ either goes up or down and you're playing that directly without the time aspect. That's what this will do. So if you want to play stocks in a leverage way, but then you don't want to have to worry about the time component, theta decay, or worry about things such as gamma, obviously this will be the play for you. The single stock futures will be available to trade five days a week, 23 hours a day, and will come in two sizes with the larger ones based on 100 shares of the stock and the micro ones based on 10 shares. So I'm a massive fan of this. I am a massive, massive, massive fan of this. We actually have a specialty thing going on. Obviously, the CME Group, good connections with Ninja Trader. I'm working on a big thing right now in the background with Ninja Trader, a specialty offering for all of you to be able to trade this product. So just hold tight. So just hold tight. We're working out some of the details. Like I said, it's not even live yet. You can't do it. You're not missing out on anything. So as things develop, obviously, I will keep you apprised of the situation. If you haven't already, sign up for the newsletter. It is 100% free. Come to your email inbox every single Sunday. Breakdown of what's going on in the market. Cheat, cheat of earnings. Also, if you need to know what earnings are, I've been doing this thing where I just pin it to the top of my profile every week. So once again, this is a freebie thing coming out for all of you, whether you want it in the newsletter or if you just need to quickly check something. It is going to be pinned during earnings season. It's going to be pinned to the top of my profile for every single week. So just once again, a freebie thing that we're giving out to everyone. Obviously, cheat sheet for earnings. And then we do the seasonality of each day. I just want you to know today, Monday, July the 27th, it's kind of neutral. There's been bullish periods, bearish periods, a little up, a little down. Not really much going on there. Tomorrow, Tuesday, it does favor the bulls a little bit more. Same thing on Wednesday. If you look at Thursday, it's a bit more bearish. And then Friday is neutral. So to conclude the month or excuse me, to conclude the month of July, the final week, it's kind of neutral. There's not a strong seasonal bias one way or the other. Sometimes it's bullish. Sometimes it's bearish. So we don't really need to use seasonality. At least in my opinion, what's probably going to be better is obviously paying attention to things such as the FOMC meeting. But in the meantime, we can obviously look at the large player positioning. And that kind of brings me to today. Now that we have five minutes left, I want to point out that today is going to probably be a wild day. So the first thing I need to show you is we have technical gaps. We have a downside gap fill. If you look at SPY, we're going to have a gap fill to 743.72. That is the high from Friday. Right now, if we were to open, we would open at 7474 on SPX. And then let me go to SPX so you can see this. The high is right here. So you have a downside gap fill to 7461. So there's a downside gap fill. But then also there's an upside gap fill to the low from Wednesday, July the 22nd. We are opening in this no man's land. This is a very dangerous zone. If you decide to trade at market open, I wish you the best of luck. We are literally opening in the middle of a zone where there's an upside gap fill and a downside gap fill. Both are actually statistically likely to get filled. So don't be so surprised if we're bouncing somehow between 460 and 485. So I want to point that out. That's structurally very strange of today. I also want to point out the fact that there's negative gamma above and negative gamma below. We're opening in this period of, I guess, sticky price action, a little bit of positive gamma with the most being at 7470. There's negative gamma all the way up to 7500, key technical psychological gamma level. But then there's also negative gamma pretty much all the way back down to 7400. So today in terms of, oh, you should have this bias of being bullish or bearish. I would actually argue the most proper bias to have at market open is literally none at all. At least on a zero DTE perspective, because we have a little pocket of positive gamma. Remember, positive gamma is not bullish or bearish. It is sticky price action. There's negative gamma above all the way to 7500. And then there's negative gamma all the way down to 7400. So you have to be careful. You have to be careful. And of course, if you choose not to, I'm not your mom. I'm not in control of your money. You can do what you want with your money. But I just want to let you know that it is very reasonable to pop all the way up to 7500 today. And it is very reasonable to crash all the way down to 7400 today. So those are two very important things we need to watch. And obviously, we're going to be looking at flow as things actually get going today. Obviously, you understand that we're in the middle of this zone. Very, very strange. And I also want to just point out that the SPX caught itself at the 50 EMA. This is a little bit of a larger timeframe breakdown. Obviously, we're looking at the daily chart of the S&P 500. But look, we caught itself at the 50 EMA. Caught. Is the third time actually a catch here? Before, it was just kind of a wick down and a big bounce. A wick down and a big bounce. We need to see that early this day to kind of replicate what we've previously seen. Because if we start to push, what is this, 7376 the low from Thursday of last week. This might be a legit breakdown. And then that reminds me of what's going on with the NASDAQ. That's already officially broken down. The NASDAQ has spent some serious time below the 50 EMA. One, two, three, four, five days ish kind of. The cloud is already turning red. So the momentum in the tech sector is clearly already weak. But with that in mind, I do want to let you know there's an upside gap full to 703.62. Once again, the low from Wednesday the 22nd. And depending on where we open, there might be a downside gap fill. We're actually not even going to see one right now. We're pretty much right at that high that we ended up seeing on Friday. So that gap fill at one point did exist and it is just no longer. So let me move this down a little bit just to see. But once again, so from a gap perspective, kind of strange. From a momentum perspective, one minute, five minute, 10 minute, 30 minute is starting to crack in real time on the NASDAQ. Pay close attention to this. And looking at ES, which on a relative basis is stronger. ES is the S&P 500 while the NASDAQ is NQ. The tech sector is clearly weaker. One minute red, five minute, 10 minute red, but 30 minute is bullish. So 30 minute in the bottom right of your screen right now is trying to hold on the S&P 500. While the NASDAQ in real time is potentially breaking, but markets about to get going. I wish the best of luck to all of you. Now, if you haven't already, the market open, the opening bell is brought to you by you guys hitting the like button. So if you guys want to help me out, that would be a huge, huge, huge thing for me. If you guys could smash that like button, don't forget to subscribe, turn on those notifications and all that good jazz. And with the final 30 seconds, if you guys don't mind, question for all of you. Obviously, you shouldn't be trading off the basis bias that you have exclusively at market open because you never know what market opens can actually bring. But hey, we're a little bit degenerate. So why not have a bit of fun? If you guys had to guess right now, what is today going to be from market open to market close 9:30 to 4:00 PM? Are you bullish or bearish? Are we going to close today above the opening value or below the opening value with the opening value obviously being 9:30? You guys think we're going up, up and away today, a day to be degenerately bullish? Or do you think today's a day to be bearish and we should actually be shorting at market open because we're going to be dropping all the way down? I would love to know your answers. [00:34:44] Speaker 3: And on that note, dingity, ding, ding, ding. The world's largest casino is now open. Best of luck to all. Play responsibly. And if not, have fun. [00:34:56] Speaker 4: All right. We are going, going, going. Google getting a pop. I can't believe I got out of those put credit spreads because they would already kind of be safe. What else is a big mover today? Big mover today. I see Coinbase is up 4%, MicroStrategy is up almost 4%, DJT is up 3%, I guess the market's liking the fact that they're selling his tweets early for $100,000 a month. Not a bad deal. Salesforce is up a decent chunk. Apple, Rum is catching a good bid. Good bid. So I'm seeing more green than I am red. Microsoft, they're going to be reporting this week. Microsoft's reporting. Meta is also reporting. Both are decently green on the day. Microsoft's actually having a pretty decent day. It looks like out of the gate we might be going first for the downside gap though. We were really, really close here. I have it marked out. Remember the previous trading sessions high is the green solid line that on SPX is 7461 right here. We hit it around 1210 on Friday. So it seems like we're a little bit closer to that than we are the upside gap fill. I'm just kind of arbitrarily guessing. Same thing here on the SPY. It is this solid green line. So if you were playing the downside gap fill out of the gate, I wish you the best of luck. Seems like you're probably going to be right. I'm not playing it because not only is there a downside gap fill, there's also simultaneously an upside gap fill. So it's just a messy situation. But just seeing what's going on. Wouldn't be so surprised if there's a bit of profit taking out of the gate as people who sold volatility over the weekend are just looking to cash in their winning tickets. Let me reload this really quickly. Of course, we're going to be cycling back and seeing how this plays out. There's still negative gamma above the longer we hold below 65, the more dangerous this gets for a drop through the negative gamma below. You can see it better if I zoom in right here, but pretty much below 7465, which is also roughly this hedge wall. If this hedge wall, the hedge wall and the bottom of positive gamma does not hold as support. Like I said, we could easily be seeing what's a reasonable drop here. Probably a drop actually all the way down to the green to red test, which is 7412. So 6561 some. Yeah, basically between 60 and 70. This is important support. We have a gamma level at 70. Obviously we have a technical level at 60. I'm looking in this 10 point region. If the bulls cannot hold this, if the bears are too aggressive within this zone, I think it's very, very real for that to be setting up an eventual at some point today, a test of the green to red move, which happens at 7412. So I'll be watching that one very, very closely. The queues are getting hit pretty aggressively out of the gate. All right. Here's a look at flow thus far. The spy kind of grinding down. The mag seven was grinding down, catching a bid. And now the Nasdaq was flat, but in the past couple of minutes, taking a little bit of a hit. Remember, I don't like to use that data strongly out of the gate. It's important. We just need more of the data. So as we're letting the spy and the queues develop here question for all of you. What individual equities are you paying attention to today? Please comment it. I want to know what you guys want up here. Obviously, I put up Meta and Microsoft. I know we have fans of Meta and Microsoft in the chat, but they also have earnings this week. So I thought that was kind of interesting. Google's having a pretty decent day. Sandisk is actually memory stocks are starting to take a little bit of a hit. Probably. Yeah. So, okay. Hang on. Something's going on. We're going for this downside gap fill. We're about to hit it. We're not far away here. Here, I'll throw up the one minute just so we can see it a bit better. But remember, the downside gap fill statistically a very, very popular play to play these gaps. So if you play that out of the gate, technically, you're playing it with the proper math. Obviously, you just need to make sure you have good risk management with it because there's no guarantee that it gets filled. It's just a very high odds play. So, oops, did not mean to do that. Once again, the downside gap fill on SPX is effectively 7461. And if you're looking on SPY, it is just below 744, which is kind of where we're at right now. And for me, on the larger picture of today, if this zone doesn't hold, like I said, I'm looking somewhere between 7425 and 7412. That would be my target if this starts to break, which is a big if. Obviously, buyers might choose to step in. They're not doing that thus far on the NASDAQ. They're starting to do it a little bit on the mag seven and the SPY is catching a little bit of a bid. But time will tell. Time will definitely tell. What am I doing here? What am I doing? Just trying to fix my heat map a little bit here. Okay. I think I'm ready to go. Oh, very quickly. The opening barrel is brought to you by Take Profit Trader. Right now, you can get 40% off and no activation fee. This deal is going to be expiring at the end of the month. And I know you guys are huge fans of TPT. So I just want to let you know 40% off, no activation fee. Why so many people like TPT is because they have daily payouts. So if you're doing well and there's also no consistency. So if you catch a big runner, you can ride that runner all day and get daily payouts with it, which is why Take Profit Trader TPT is so incredibly popular. And I'm really bringing them to your attention today because I finally have my pro accounts. Remember, I passed these last week. So I went from evals to funded. So right now I have five evals on Tradeify. One, two, three, four, five. Okay. This one's bust. I don't know why I still have this one. That account is actually... Why is that one bust? It must be this one. Okay. This one makes my trade copier. I don't think I could be trading on this one random little account. And then so also evals here on Lucid. So we're trading with a mixture today. We have a mixture of funded, a mixture of evals, and we're going to see how it can go. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. What are we doing? I just want to make sure we're ready. I shouldn't be trading this early. I was doing a lot of backtesting over the weekend. Found some interesting stuff. Going to see if I could put it into action today. But who knows? [00:41:16] Speaker ?: Who knows? [00:41:17] Speaker 5: Who knows? Who knows? Who knows? [00:41:20] Speaker ?: Who knows? [00:41:21] Speaker 4: Eight. Eight times four is 32. Okay. [00:41:27] Speaker ?: Yes. Okay. [00:41:29] Speaker 5: Yes. Okay. All right. Okay. All right. That is 80. [00:41:43] Speaker 4: Just in case this gets rejected. I'm manually executing this, but this is a systematic trade. This is exactly what the system would call for. As long as we don't pierce whatever this high is. What's the high? 615, 616. So let's see. Let's see. Let's see. Let's see. And also I could be a little bit more aggressive with it today because most of these are evals. So. Calm, cool, collected. [00:42:15] Speaker 5: We're going to stick to the system. We're going to see how it plays out. Things are actually kind of awkwardly slowing down. [00:42:23] Speaker 4: Awkwardly slowing down. Should. Order filled. Okay. That was a really delayed fill. A really. I mean, I should have. Dude. I got the fill, but by the time it credited me with the fill, the first one actually already hit. And now it's about like, that's such bullshit. This is one of the things about the simulated environment that I'm just like, not a fan of. Um, things like this happen. I, it should have gone short on the breakdown, but it took too long for it to register. And the first one actually technically already hit, but because the account wasn't credited with it. And I guess I can't complain that much because it does cut both ways. So I mean, you can see it in real time. I got the fill. It went to that first target. And I just, by the time it registered of it doing anything, it popped against it. So, like I said, I can't complain that much because it does cut both ways. Sometimes it helps you. Sometimes you get more profit because the slippage is in your favor. Other times it doesn't. So it's a bit of a pain, but like I said, I can't bitch and moan that much. Uh, obviously locking in 200. So we're starting the day. Like I said, I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. So, okay, I was looking at that. It's a bearish setup. Basically has to do, uh, with trying the first move, clearly to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. I'm going to go to the end of the day. Wait for the rebound and see if you can play that. So right here. The first move was to the downside. Wait for the rebound. I had well-defined risk. I was trying to get in. Obviously, I could have rode it to this point. The short was at 80. I would already be up a shitload of money, but it just is what it is. It is what it is. So, I mean, it also could have easily ripped against me, and then I probably would have been more angry. So I can't complain. $200 per account. Pretty decent start if you ask me. Pretty decent start if you ask me. And obviously, today is day one with my newest funded accounts, the TPT Pro. So if I do well enough today, I could actually get the request. So if you want to take advantage of daily payout, shout out to TPT. 40% off no activation fee with that code Goonie. Spy was dipping until 33, 34, and now we're seeing a little bit of life. It's flattening out. No very evident clear trend on the S&P 500 flow quite yet. The Mag 7 just took a hit. It was climbing up until about 938. So 10 minutes of a little bit of relief, and right now just quickly plummeted to the intraday low. So Mag 7 starting to show some weakness. Same thing here with the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq was weak, popped, went flat, couldn't hold, and getting hit. So let's see. The SPY is holding though. So they're not really in unison right now, at least not at the moment. I also have book map if you guys want to see this. Shout out to book map, by the way. It is in the description of the video. This one's okay. I get this question a lot. This is spot gamma. This is your options analytics. This tool is book map. Book map is going to be just, you're sending buy orders and sell orders. And then also you can see what side's more aggressive. Are they hitting the bid? Are they hitting the ask? Obviously the green events is okay. The green is where people are aggressively hitting the ask. They're buying the ask. It's aggressive, aggressive buying. The red is aggressive selling. That's when they're selling out the bid. So we get to see that. And then obviously the heat map is just the pending orders. That's what all this color is. So you could see that there's right now orders at 507. That's not many orders, but relative to what's going on, the darker the color, the more order sitting there. So it's the pending setting buy orders, the pending setting sell orders. But remember just because an order is pending, it doesn't mean that the person, the trader, the bot system, whatever it is, it doesn't mean they have to keep the order there. We see it all the time that people choose to move it. The other thing on the screen right here is the point of control. This is just where most volumes been traded at. And right now that's at 600 based on the 6:00 PM opening. And then VWAP, the volume weighted average price is 632. Do I have that on my chart? On my chart. Okay. So we're starting to put a couple things together. We're starting to put a couple moving pieces together. So right now we know the POC is 600. We know VWAP is 632. And actually the RTH VWAP is 560. So we are below all of them. So in a generic sense, we are making lower highs and lower lows ever since about 9:00 AM. And we're below the two VWAPs and we're also below the point of control. So right now you could argue that there is bearish momentum, at least in price movement. With respect to momentum with the EMAs, one minute, five minute, 10 minute, 30 minute is cracking. The fact that we dip below 640 and then did not save ourselves at 588 and made this fresh low, not so good. So you know what? That's a setup. It's a setup to go to the new week opening gap. We have a... Can I show you on the 10 minute? Right here. So we just cracked 500, which is where we opened at 6:00 PM yesterday. Right here. We opened at 6:00 PM. Fight, fight, fight. Nope. So now that means that there's a new week opening gap, new week, AKA Sunday. Well, when we closed out on Friday, it was 3:06. We're looking for this new week opening gap to get filled effectively. So paying very, very close attention to 28,306. The short that I initially had right here, I mean, actually, that was a beautiful short because I withstood the risk up to 600 and I could have, I mean, right here, I was short at 580. We're already trading at 440. I'd be up 140 points and I had two contracts. So am I kicking myself? Yeah, I'm kicking myself. I definitely should have held that. That was a beautiful trade. That sucks on my part. Son of a gun. All right. Whatever. Can't cry over spilled milk. No crying in the casino. But dude, that was a beautiful short. Yeah, I made 200 across all these accounts, but I could have made three grand across all of these accounts. Like each one would have been up 3K. Okay. Now I'm angry about that. I mean, because I would have already maxed out the buffer on these and I could have taken five. Dude, that's brutal. All right. Whatever. Whatever. I'm not mad. You're mad. I'm not mad. You're mad. Anyway, if you don't have 306.5 marked out on your NQ chart, you're doing yourself a disservice. That is where we closed out the week. So you have to watch 28,306.5. With respect to SPX, SPX on a relative basis is stronger. We did get the downside gap fill. So now there is an upside gap fill, which there has been, but that one is at 485. Like I said, this is kind of the danger zone. Right here. I was looking between 60 and 70. If the bulls can hold it, if the bears aren't strong enough, then maybe we push up to the upside gap fill, which once again is 485. And then beyond that, I was looking at 500. If this does not hold, I'm looking for somewhere between 412 and 425. 425 key technical level. It's a gamma level. And then from there, you have a structural level. The previous close on Friday at 412. So this would be my target. If we do not hold this zone. Remember, it's an if then statement. An if then statement for those of you who don't have a background in mathematics or computing. It's just literally if situation A, then whatever circumstance B. So like if in state A, then we're looking for B. But if A not true, then we're not looking at the then statement. It's an if then statement. You need the if part, the conditional to be true to then consider the following statement. If the conditional statement, the if part is not true, then you don't worry about what's coming after it. So in this particular if then statement, if we break below and do not hold 60 to 70, that's the conditional. Breaking below and not holding. Then I'm looking for a sell off down to 425 to 412. But however, if that conditional statement is not true, if we don't break below and hold below. Well, then there's actually a real shot of going up to what was it? 85 and potentially past that 500. So that's the if then statement. You don't consider the then point the directive statement of it if the conditional part is not first met. So for this one, the conditional would be if we do not hold this zone, we need the breakdown. If that happens, then I'm looking for a sell off to here. But until then, you kind of just have to sit there calmly. I'm looking for a little bit more. But I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. But I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. I'm looking for a little bit more. Yeah. All right. Here, I'm going to take a quick screenshot. One of the Claude days got a fill. Got a fill. All right. I'm just sending proof of that. Where was it? [00:51:40] Speaker 5: Swingers, swingers, swingers, swingers, swingers, swingers. [00:51:50] Speaker 4: Profit target hit. Okay. If you're in the discord, that was just one of the swinger Claude bot situations. It was the one for July 29th. So we are looking all groovy over there. And also the Microsoft play is looking pretty decent. The Microsoft play is looking pretty decent as well. Okay. So Google's climbing up Meta, Micron, Tesla, Tesla. Jesus. It was just at 400. Oh, wow. Oh, wow. Tesla is getting annihilated folks. What in the world? Holy cow. That's a bloodbath in Tesla. Not long ago. It was at 450. Bit before that at 500. Trading at 300. Bottom at 220. Wow. This could get bad for Tesla. Tesla. I think it's more likely to have a reversion. I don't think it'll just completely dagger down, but that's quite the fall from grace. Someone said, check in video. What's going on with it video? Yeah. It's just right at its cloud. Nvidia actually hasn't been moving much. I don't find this one to be that interesting. Do you see something else going on with Nvidia? Popped up, pulled back about a third, a half of the distance. And it just, the EMA is going flat. No real trend. Nvidia is actually looking pretty boring. If you ask me, Tesla's getting destroyed. Google got hit, trying to bounce back. Intel huge rip, giving it back, putting in a lower high, getting rejected in that cloud. Pretty decent short below 101. Small caps popping. Bitcoin showing life. Bitcoin's trying to get back above. This might be the restart of some enthusiasm in the crypto market. We had this big pop, huge drop. Inverse shoulder, head, shoulder, trying to get above. Would love to see if Bitcoin can push back up to 72. Micron right at its 50 EMA. Sandisk putting in that lower high, getting rejected in this cloud. We covered Nvidia. AMD going flat. Boring. TSM, same thing. Putting in that lower high. Meta. Avago going flat. Microsoft trying to get going. It put in two higher lows. We do have earnings this week. Nibius, lower high. Hutt, lower high. Lamb Research also reporting this week. Lower high. Marvel, lower high. SpaceX getting nailed. UNH. Wait, what was that? Oh, Apple. New all time high. I think Apple's once again now the most valuable company in the world. Top companies by market cap. Apple, yeah. Apple has regained its title as the number one company in the world. Apple is ripping new all time highs as Nvidia's doing nothing. Google's going down. Microsoft's going down. Amazon's going down. So market cap, almost $5 trillion. Apple, dingity, ding, ding, ding. Regaining. Regaining the title as the most valuable company in the world. Rum, nice 4% gain. Lower high on Amazon. Salesforce catching nice bid. Netflix getting destroyed. Palantir trying to fight, trying to put in a higher low, but overall getting smashed. Same thing with Oracle. Texas Roadhouse. Loving it. Loving it. Texas Roadhouse. I've been riding this one since like $100, looking for a new all time high. We're getting there. It's $2.06. Currently trading at $1.99. Poor Weave showing a bit of green today, but overall not a strong trend. Bitcoin's going up. So Coinbase and MicroStrategy are also going up. DJT, AMC, TLT, NDX. Silver still down. Gold still down. Oil was popping, popping, popping. Honestly, this might just catch itself there. Put in a higher low and keep going. I mean, you can already see oil starting to pick back up. It was down at $82. Now it's at $84. So looking at the daily chart, this might have just been a retest of the EMA because red, red, red, bearish, bearish, bearish. Huge pop. Pull back. This could just be a higher low. Goes for the upside gap fill and maybe keeps going. That would not be so good. Not be so good. Let's see how the pump and dumps have been doing. Okay. That pump did dump. That pump did dump. And actually it's gearing back up. There might be a second one there. Estop. Pump, dump, pump, dump. Zbit. Huge pump, dump. PN still going. I'm waiting for this one to crack. ADVB. First red day cracking low down 11%. Here's our favorite one though. The 707 Cayman Islands. Not even trying to hide it. Not even trying to hide the pump and dump on this one. J E M finally showing weakness. I think before you know it, this thing's back down at 350. WHGO. Another pump dump. W by pump dump. I mean, these pump dumps are so easy to play. So, so easy to call out. So easy to play. And I have to admit my favorite one just because of the name. Cayman Holdings. Not like dude literally Cayman Island Holdings. Come on. Uh, this is probably just the address of their PO box or something. And like I said, it's a pump dump. Uh, it pumped and it's starting to dump. And I, like I said, I think given enough time, this thing's going back down to 350, probably even sub three. All right. So there's a little individual equity review. Uh, how are we doing in the overall market? How are we doing? Did I? [00:57:26] Speaker ?: Oh, whoa. Okay. The play I had this morning, I was completely wrong on. [00:57:29] Speaker 4: I should not have played what I played this morning. Uh, I thought we were quite a bit higher. I got really lucky. Okay. Uh, I can't complain about this shared at all. Before when I was complaining about the slippage, this was not the proper trade. So the fact that I made 200 on each of them, I'm going to take it because that is, uh, I completely misread the chart. I should not have been involved in that one. So, uh, we'll take it where we can get it folks. We can take it where we can get it. All right. So as we're letting things play out, cause maybe there's the 10 AM reversal, it's only nine 54. And right now we are seeing lower highs and lower lows. We got the downside gap fill on SPY. There was not on QQQ. Uh, I'm waiting to see if we hold 60. If we don't hold 60, like I said, my target on the day would be somewhere between 425 and 412. So I'm obviously closely paying attention to that. The NASDAQ is not looking so good. You can see it here on the 10 minute. Uh, granted, we now have on the 10 minute chart. This is a three plus standard deviation move to the downside. We have a low of 423. And like I said here, my target would be 306. That is the new week opening gap. Very popular play. The odds behind it are very, very high just because as high odds, it's not a guarantee. But like I said, if you got that short early this morning, kind of where I first had mine, I, I had this short here at 938. Dude, I'm going to be kicking myself because I could probably have held this one in at 580. I could have probably held it all the way down to 306. I'm, I'm pissed off about that one, but Hey, it is what it is. Uh, we have a potential actual like major breakdown here. I just want to bring to your attention, uh, right here, the 30 minute on ESS testing one minute, five minute, 10 minute is already bearish. And then all the NASDAQ is already bearish one, five, 10 and 30. Uh, I am watching. So this bar ends in five minutes. If we crack 490 here, that is not good because not only is that a new intraday low, that is a 30 minute or bow breakdown. And then that is once again, setting up a move all the way to the potential closing value at four, four, four. So, uh, watching for this breakdown and we'll know a little bit more of this bar first has to close. So we have about four or five minutes. So we have a little bit of time to kill. And I guess as we're waiting for this time to kill to see if we break the 30 minute bars low, the intraday low question to all of you. Uh, obviously I just quickly cycled through a lot of the current pump and dumps, uh, playing out in the market and these shitty little penny stocks, uh, not rhetorical. Like I, I I'm actually like deeply curious. What company in the market right now that at least people talk about, do you think is like the biggest scam? Which one do you think is you're just like, it blows your mind. People are buying it. It blows your mind. Anytime you see a green bar, like which one are you like, just which particular ticker will you die on the hill of arguing. It is evidently a pump and dump. Which one are you just like, brother? Like what the fuck? Uh, ETH Ethereum. I kind of agree with that. I don't even know where my ETH play is. Uh, but ETH has been getting beaten up. Uh, AMC. Okay. How's AMC dude. Yeah. Eventually this will get cracked. Just takes time. Just takes time. Reddit. I'm curious why Reddit. I mean, Reddit's popular. It's trending up, but what about Reddit? Are you like, nah, dude, that's a scam. Apple? Definitely not. I can't agree on that one. Interesting. Uh, I don't agree, but I don't agree. But price is apparently agreeing with you. SpaceX. [01:01:21] Speaker ?: Yeah. [01:01:21] Speaker 4: I mean, I don't think SpaceX is a pump and dump, but it's clearly overvalued. I like SpaceX and I think it's going to be a big winner in the future. But 135 is too high. 200 is way too high. I, like I said, my call out on this one is it's going sub a hundred. [01:01:36] Speaker ?: Bitcoin. [01:01:37] Speaker 4: Tesla. Intel. Intel's overvalued. So in my opinion, it might be, but it's tough to fight Intel because it's now, doesn't the U S government own 10%. Like it's really, really tough to fight against a company that the U S government, the biggest and most powerful government on this planet is actively supporting. Uh, bro, Tesla is the only company trying to drag us into the future. I don't necessarily agree with that. I mean, SpaceX is one. I think Nvidia is one. I think there's a lot of companies kind of doing cool, futuristic things. Uh, AMC is dealing okay for what AMC is. Uh, I think that's true, but I think the company is still, um, gonna be forced because of how much debt they have and how much debt they have to service. I think they're going to be forced into doing a share dilution again. And whenever they do a dilution, it gets destroyed. Uh, speaking of getting destroyed, the market is getting destroyed. Uh, Tesla getting smashed. Google is actually holding decently. Well, met is holding decently. Well, Microsoft, I don't know. This might just be the year of Texas roadhouse folks. How many of you are long Texas roadhouse? How many of you have put some of your hard earned money into the best investment vehicle ever, ever known? I just, uh, Texas road. I should make an entire channel that just covers Texas roadhouse updates, whether they're having a specialty on their ribs. Maybe there's a big development in their stock, but bro, look at that. Butte. Look at that. Butte from 2005 to now, just a nice return of 17,000, 1,700% return. What else do you need? What else do you need folks? Look at that. That's a beaut. That's a beaut. If you were smart enough to buy this in the dip, realizing that the cinnamon buns are never going to leave from then until now, you're up 450%. I just, uh, Tesla has good quality control. Do you know what has better quality control? Texas roadhouse. How do I know that Texas roadhouse has better quality control than any company on the planet? Not to just smack Tesla there. Uh, have you had their bread? Have you had their cinnamon butter bread? Do I actually, okay. Texas roadhouse is obviously a perfect business. I think we can all agree. So it's really tough to criticize a perfect business and come up with thoughts of how it could be better. But I do have one idea. Imagine if like there was a particular holiday, like a specialty holiday where they allowed customers to be able to pay to be put down into a vat of that cinnamon butter. Like, I think that would just be maybe another level of investment that I could get behind. Like the way they used to have those dunk tanks when you were a kid growing up. I think this idea of a cinnamon butter dunk tank that we could all just pay to be in. I would do it and I'd pay a lot of money for it. And I think a lot of people would. I think a lot of people would. 10, 10 AM reversal. I'm not the biggest fan of it today. I wouldn't mind a little bit of a pop that I could go short into, but I wouldn't be going long. Uh, hang on. The structure changed. This is a fair question. Wow. Okay. So we have negative gamma. We had this positive gamma. We rip through it, but we're running into a bit of support on SPX here. Um, and it's right around seven, four, three, five. I was calling out two, five. We did. We already broke the 30 minute or bow to the downside on both. Okay. So the opening 30 minutes from 9:30 to 10 was broken to the south side on both ES and NQ. It was broken to the south side on SPY and QQQ. So that that's bearish momentum. But as you guys in chat are right to point out, sometimes we have these 10 AM reversals. Um, I saw this flow. There's a little, we have to watch flow basically are the people going to get trapped. I, I asked you guys early this morning, is it a trap? Uh, a bull trap. And a lot of you said, yes, uh, there were a couple of you who got it completely wrong and said you wanted to be bullish at market open. And I hope you never took the trade and I hope you redefined your, uh, opinion on the day. But for those of you who are saying that the overnight push was a bull trap, I mean, look at this. We're just getting smashed right now. Remember when I left you guys on Friday, we close out at seven, four, 12. Today, we opened up about 50 plus points higher, pushed even more than that. And now I'm, I'm looking in this zone. I mean, I called it out. I made it very clear. I explained the whole, if then statement, if we do not hold the 60 to 70 region, my target, my short target on a zero. DT basis is somewhere between four to five and four 12. Uh, if we do not hold this zone looking for the short down to this zone. And I kind of played it. I mean, I mean, a couple thousand dollars off of it. I could have played it better. I had this short at five 78 and I could have been up 207. Dude, fuck this. I cannot believe I had a two contract short at five 80 and we are trading at three 20. Uh, holding an ES short since seven, four, nine, five. Uh, where are we on ES? Seven, four, nine, five. [01:07:22] Speaker ?: Okay. [01:07:22] Speaker 4: So you played the break of 500. Okay. I don't mind it. I mean, I would have liked it a little bit better at like five Oh five, something like that. Four 95. Oh, you took the second pop failure right here. [01:07:35] Speaker ?: Okay. [01:07:35] Speaker 4: I like that. Cause your risk was probably 500. Obviously in hindsight, it was a little better at five Oh five, but it looks like you probably shorted this pop. I would assume this pop up that failed. So yeah, you probably were short here risking 500 on the break. Yeah. I would just say, get your stop to break even. Uh, that's a good trade. That's a, uh, that's a good trade right there. Uh, reminder folks, uh, shout out to take profit trader. They are the partner of today's show code. Goody will get you 40% off. No activation fee. I am now training. In fact, they're my only funded accounts that I'm actively training today. So I'm up a thousand across all of them. I have five, 200 each show up a thousand dollars in funded accounts. Uh, like I said, why they're so popular daily payouts and no consistency. As in, if you have one big runner, if you caught this runner all day in a TPT account, you wouldn't have to get out early. Oh, the cues are about to test the red green move. Uh, we're potentially going red officially. Wow. Holy cow. 30 more cents. The red green move. It is at, uh, 684 23, 684. Look at that dump. What goes up must go down folks. Wow. [01:09:02] Speaker 5: Well, thanks for playing to all the bulls who thought they had something going. All the bulls who thought they had something going. All right. [01:09:19] Speaker 4: Here's our first, uh, green to red test of the day. Uh, and once again, a green, red test, a red, green test is literally just we're green on the day. We're above the previous day's close. A lot of people react to the previous closing value. So I'm watching that. We closed out on Friday, uh, on QQQ, the ETF for the NASDAQ at 684 23. So I'm watching that. And then, uh, oh, that was my target. Remember I called out 306 to all of you. How many of you played that? How many of you played it all the way down to 306, the new week opening gap. The odds surrounding that play are very, very good. So if you played that a massive, massive congrats to you. Uh, that's a nice trade and you deserve all the money you got off of that. Um, if you played it from where I did, honestly, your day's over. It could easily keep going down. Uh, but that's enough of a move that like, why even risk giving it back? Okay. So we hit the new week opening gap. That was a beautiful play. Uh, obviously I gave it to you guys before the market even opened. And if you played it seriously, a massive, massive congrats by opportunities. No spy showing life. I don't think so. Not yet. It feels a little early. It'd be one thing, a buy opportunity. Uh, if you can take out like a, this, a previous high or something like that. But right now the trend is still, we're just getting lower highs, lower lows. Like at minimum, you would want to see at least a higher low. But right now, uh, you're stepping in front of a freight train at the moment. I'm not really seeing buyers step in. Uh, I would like, yeah, you have to exercise patience. I would wait as close to this region as possible. I wouldn't be front running it by 15 points. Buy opportunities. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Uh, in a call credit spread on the queues 91 by 90, a call credit spread. You're probably already up most of the premium anyway. And you think about it this way. You in 30 minutes of work, you've already hit most of the profit. Like, is it really worth you freaking out and watching the charts for the rest of the day? Remember some of the best traders, what they do is they just know when to step away. They know when to be like, you know when to step away. They know when to be like, oh, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Uh, in a call credit spread on the queues 91 by 90, a call credit spread. You're probably already up most of the premium anyway. And you think about it this way. You in 30 minutes of work, you've already hit most of the profit. They know when to be like, okay, cool. I'm done on the day. I like they're like, cool. Made my money. Uh, they don't sit there and battle it out because, uh, a lot of the times if you're just sitting there and you're watching and you're watching it, like you can basically just out of like almost pure boredom, you're like, well, I feel like I should be doing something because I've been sitting here all day when in reality, a lot of the time is the best move is to literally do nothing. So just, just remember that literally do nothing. Maybe we have an attempted bounce here. I mean, if I had the call credit spread at 90 by 91, you're already up a decent amount of money. I mean, what you're five, $6 already in the money. You sure you're probably up 80, 90% of the total, uh, potential profit anyway, from the credit that you sold, you could just end it. And you'd be like, yeah, cool. I got most of it. Um, ask yourself the extra 10 to 15% that you could make. Is that worth your time for the rest of the day? Is that worth the risk for the rest of the day? Because it like there is negative gamma above folks. And there is definitely negative gamma above. So you sold, uh, and there are, I could show you many examples in which we do get that V-shape recovery. And then all of a sudden you go from mostly in profit to all of a sudden in that break even, then you get tilted and pissed off. And then all of a sudden you go negative and you add to it. Like, it's just, it's not necessarily worth it, uh, from a time perspective, from a risk perspective, and even just from like a psychology perspective. So if you sold out, obviously that's a good trade and congrats to you. Why not just collect your money and move on? You won the game. Don't just move on with your life. Move on. You already won the game. You won the world's largest casinos game, uh, today, Monday and go enjoy it. Go, go for a walk, go touch some grass, take your money and move on. Uh, yeah, I can't sit still doing something, doing nothing is hard. Sometimes it's hard. A lot of the times folks, everyone in here, if you're in here, there's a good chance that you've already been training for a decent amount of time. And you're probably like a day trader at one point or another, I'd be willing to say that 99% of us have had that issue where we're just training to do something because you've sat there all day and you feel as if you should be doing something because you've already like just spent so much time. So it feels like you gotta be more active. And that's a really tough thing to control because like I said, like most of the time, like if you look at most one minute bars of the day, you shouldn't be doing anything. Um, so I actually find that whether, well, first of all, if I'm already very profitable in the morning, one of my favorite things to do is just shut it down and move on with my life. I literally shut my whole system down, go to the gym, go for a walk, go play with Piper, go do something. And then even if you haven't had like the best morning session or something like that, sometimes the best thing to do is literally set alerts on your computer for the key levels. You care about that. And other than that, just step away. Um, uh, it's weird. Trading is one of those few things where you can actually make more by doing less, which I know is like really weird because in many things in this life, you need to work harder, put in more effort and like really grind it out, put in those man hours. And of course there's a certain like minimum amount of effort you need to be putting in to learn everything you need to learn. Um, but I, I find that a lot of new traders, they think the time they have to put in is watching the chart. And yes, there is a minimum amount of chart washing. You should kind of get used to, uh, but beyond that. Yeah. I'm telling you, you should work, but you're working should be studying some of the greats. It should be back testing. It should be learning those other things outside of just sitting and watching the chart. Uh, what's the saying that you need to put in 10,000 hours to master something. If you want to master trading, your 10,000 hours are not chart watching. Your 10,000 hours should be studying the grades and it should be back testing. And it should be refining. It should be system development. It's not just chart watching. Um, a lot of people think that just because they've watched so much of chart development that inherently they should then be making profit. And then they see that their accounts are going down and they question what in the world's going on. And that tells us something the 10,000 hours of dedication you have to devote to being expert at the game of training is not chart watching. Of course there is a bare minimum, but it is elsewhere in the world of trading that you have to master. It really, really is. Once I'm done in the morning, I just locked my account on trade of eight to keep myself from jumping back in. Yeah. I might miss a move, but at least I don't lose a day. I think that's a perfect mindset. I really, really do. I really do. So you're on trade of eight there, which that's the one I use. I do have one rhythmic connection, which is my FFN because they're not partnered with trade of eight, but all the other ones are on trade of eight. And, uh, obviously just in the fact that like, I'm a big fan of Ninja trader. I'm a partner with Ninja trader. I like their backtesting. I like their ecosystem. And Ninja trader does own trade of eight. It's just easier in my life. Uh, memories getting smoked. What are your thoughts, Matt? Yeah. It's just, this is natural mean reversion. Like, uh, I, I understand intraday. You might be looking at this and be like, oh, wow. That's like a huge sell off. But remember this we're trading a micron trading at 885. Not long ago, it was trading at 100. So like people, there is this concept, I suppose, or this general thought that I see in the world of retail trading that every green day is expected. And that's just how things should go. And then when there's a red day, they want an explanation. But as true as it is for you to say, why is it going down right now? Maybe a better question is why did it go up so much without it looking back at all? Like this thing just ripped and ripped and ripped. Um, so this, like it, it really is the perspective of like, kind of like the whole win in doubt, zoom out type of a thing of like, if you're looking at the 10 minute or even let's go to the 30 minute, you're looking at this and you're like, dude, what happened? 1010 down to 884. That's crazy. What in the world happened over what? Two and a half trading sessions. But then if you go to the daily or the weekly, this is nothing like at all on the daily. You're like, oh yeah, no, like we're literally just going sideways. Nothing. So once again, in terms of dramatic pumps or dramatic dumps, ask yourself, is that true across all timeframes? Or is it true across most timeframes? Because I see that on the 10 minute, you might be thinking this is getting hit. But honestly, when you, by the time you go to the daily or the weekly, a better question is why did it go up so much without a single like pullback? Like pullback, barely a pullback, if anything. And also remember, maybe it's useful to look at the larger context here. Okay. First of all, we did get the, we're actively going the green to red test right now in the Qs, a failed pump. That's not so good. But anyway, we're below the 50 EMA. It's really, remember the Qs. This is the ETF, the exchange traded fund, a tracking the entire tech sector, or it's thought to be tech dominant and it is tech dominant. This is now on the bearish side of the EMA cloud. Bullish, bullish, bullish. Easy to rip anything that was bullish in the tech sector. Right now, we broke below. We popped up. We failed. Right here. This is a very dangerous development between Tuesday and Wednesday of last week. We popped up. We failed. We gapped down. We are on the south side. We are on the bearish side of the tech sector. So all of a sudden, when things are going bearish, like are you really that surprised when the whole tech sector is trending bearish? It's not a bear market. Remember, a bear market is a 20% decline from whatever the high is. So I'm not saying it's a bear market. I'm saying it has bearish momentum. And I am kicking myself. We are trading at 250. I had my short at 580. Are you kidding me? I'd be up 330 points times two because I had two contracts. I would be up 660 points on NQ right now. Well, actually, no, I wouldn't. I would have taken profits at 306 to be completely fair. Like I said, the new week opening gap. We closed out on Friday at 306 50 and obviously we opened above that. So I can't say I'd be holding it to this point because I definitely would have taken profits at 306 50 if I even held to this point, which I didn't. So I can't sit here and cry about it. I cannot. I cannot. Meta's trying to show some life. SpaceX getting destroyed. Did you guys see all the drama playing out in the prop firm space? I guess I missed something over the weekend. I've been recently kind of like disconnected. I'm too stoked. If you guys don't know, it's the start of Shark Week. Shark Week officially started at 8:00 PM Eastern last night. So I was paying attention to Shark Week. My newborn son, he loves sharks. So we're doing everything Shark Week related. And I didn't realize in the world of prop firms that there was a huge amount of drama, a massive amount of drama that I guess just shows how stupid a lot of these people are. Let me play you some of the... Oh, wait. Is this not the person? Okay. This might be some of the highlights, if you will. Just whenever you guys are using codes... [01:21:06] Speaker 8: If folks like your stream... [01:21:08] Speaker 4: Why can't I do this? When you're using affiliate codes, maybe do a little bit of research of the type of person that is hawking you that affiliate code because it was on full display apparently at some point over the weekend. [01:21:23] Speaker 8: If folks like your stream, it's because they're making money. If folks like my stream, it's because they're making money. Yeah, maybe. [01:21:29] Speaker ?: Okay. So here's a suggestion. [01:21:31] Speaker 8: The louder guy is an ICT simp. ICT is in here. [01:21:34] Speaker 4: And then Patrick Whelan is in here. All of these people are buying views. They're all buying engagement. They're all basically... They would sell their children for you to use their affiliate code. And I just want to be clear here. These people are all into the game of marketing. None of these people are profitable traders. I just want to be very clear about this. [01:21:59] Speaker 8: A lot of followers on YouTube. I get a lot of followers on X. I think there's a reason why people like watching us stream. And there's no reason to be disrespectful about that. [01:22:08] Speaker 9: Your followers are uneducated Africans, but you know, I'm not pointing fingers. Come on. [01:22:14] Speaker 4: Your followers are uneducated Africans. You might be thinking, that's a bold statement. Where could we possibly go from there? Okay. [01:22:24] Speaker 9: I mean, that is the truth. I mean, they are... [01:22:27] Speaker 8: I don't know. I don't know how true that is. [01:22:29] Speaker 9: That sounds racist, but... If we looked at ICT's followers... [01:22:31] Speaker 8: But bro, most of your followers are bots then, right? I mean, maybe, but they're not... [01:22:35] Speaker 4: Do you like how Patrick doesn't deny that at all? He... All of these people that are streaming allegedly to thousands of people and have no actual chat speed or engagement on other platforms, they all know they're buying it. They literally don't even deny that they are buying subscribers and viewers. [01:22:52] Speaker 9: I'm not African at least. [01:22:54] Speaker 10: If you stop giving out giveaways, if you stop doing that, your numbers would deplete immediately. Okay. [01:23:01] Speaker 9: How about this? I won't run a giveaway for the whole month of August. And let's see what happens. [01:23:06] Speaker 8: What's that have to do with anything though, bro? [01:23:08] Speaker 9: He just said my numbers are deplete. [01:23:10] Speaker ?: Because... [01:23:10] Speaker 8: But you can pay for your numbers on YouTube, bro. Let's not pretend. [01:23:13] Speaker 9: I know, but I can show you the commission. [01:23:16] Speaker 8: So you can literally completely falsify your entire identity online and you don't think we know that? [01:23:21] Speaker ?: I know, but do you... [01:23:22] Speaker 8: I'm not... Not even denying it. They all do. [01:23:25] Speaker 4: Apparently one guy has African followers and another guy has bots. [01:23:28] Speaker 9: If I make over a million dollars a month as an affiliate, do you think that's because I have bots or is that because real people watch me? [01:23:35] Speaker 8: That's because you've accumulated over the last four years a residual in which you have acquired a large equity stake in these prop firms. Good for you. I don't have any equity stake. That has nothing... [01:23:47] Speaker 4: All right. So that's one piece. It did not end there. It did. I wish I could tell you it ended there, but it did it. [01:23:54] Speaker 10: If you want to give me a million dollars in January for a full run for a full fucking year, guess what? We're going to compare 1099 Bs at the end of fucking 2027. And if I ain't fifty fucking times whatever you fucking do, I'll delete every fucking thing, drive my ass down to fucking wherever that bum fucking place you have to live in, Florida, and I will kiss your ass on livestream. How about that? Tongue first, right up in your fucking chocolate starfish, you little bitch. Come over here and give me your shit again, because I will embarrass your fucking big ass. [01:24:30] Speaker 11: Fucking clown. [01:24:32] Speaker 10: Hey, it's been fun. [01:24:34] Speaker 11: It's been fun. And it's been real. None of that. [01:24:38] Speaker 4: So, just to clarify, this guy, ICT, who is a known scammer and liar, right now is pushing all of the prop firms to use code ICT to raise money for St. Jude's. If you don't know what St. Jude's is, it's a charity for people, specifically children, who are battling cancer. So, it's a way to raise money for a great cause. I and you guys, especially if you've been in this community, you know we have a good relationship with St. Jude. We donate a lot of money. We've raised tens of thousands of dollars, and I commend that as an effort. But in this effort where they're talking about it, a grown man who, let me just be clear here, is now affiliated with all these prop firms, attempted to raise money for children and families who are in need, is screaming that he's going to put his tongue up another man's ass. Grown men, like I just, what's going on folks? Like what dude? Like dude, I just, this is fucking insane. Hey, it's been fun. It's been fun. And it's been real. [01:25:56] Speaker 11: Right? No, I'm not done. Don't interrupt me. My bad. My bad. [01:26:01] Speaker 10: Coming here, holding your dick in your hand, and saying some Mickey Mouse shit and running away. That's the biggest cowardest shit I've ever fucking seen. Dude, I'm out here every fucking week telling you exactly what this market's going to do. [01:26:21] Speaker 4: Fact check. I made so much. No, he's not. ICT has never had a profitable year trading ever. It's just, he dupes a lot of dumb people into thinking he is profitable. [01:26:31] Speaker 10: Fucking money. You would shit and fall back in and roll around in that motherfucking shit. You will never see money like that. You will never see money. [01:26:39] Speaker 4: Yep, folks, that is the current state of affairs in the world of affiliates is some people have bots. Some people are alleged to have Africans. Another guy is saying he wants to trade. And if not, he will do some gay stuff. And hey, if that's what you're into, I'm not here to knock. You know, don't knock until you try it. But I'm just saying the context of it, it's all happening as they're trying to raise money for kids is like, I don't know. I, I, I just, what, like, what is there to say? Like, I guess I'm, I don't know. Like part of me thinks I'm sitting here and I'm like, okay, like Matt, you're just like old and boring now that you have a kid and you're sleep deprived and you're trying to get your life straight. But I don't even know if I could blame it on my son. Like, I'm just so tired of these people who are like actual scumbag liars. And I think that there's going to be a very intentional effort from me and the rest of our team to just kind of separate from all of this. And we're going to do our own thing. And I mean, just, it reminds me of all the stupid drama circa 2022 that played out with AMC, where it was just like, all the drama is just such an incredible waste of time. Um, and it's a waste of time and effort. And like they, everyone just comes out of it looking so incredibly stupid. And obviously ever since may I've like, I mean, you could even see it on my socials that I've like put in a clear, clear effort to step back from this whole thing and just kind of do our own thing. And now after seeing what's, uh, apparently played out over the weekend, uh, I am more confident than ever that the best thing for me to do for the team to do. And for us, for our community to do is to literally point and laugh at them. And then just worry about our own shit. If you were wasting any of your time fighting or engaging, it's one thing if you're using it for entertainment, because it is crazy funny. But beyond that, if you are wasting a single second of your time fighting with any of these people, that's exactly what you're doing. You are wasting your time. Uh, a much better thing to do is to just trade, make your money and then move on with your life. Like, honestly, that that's what it is. Uh, uh, no, Matt, it's not you. They are regarded AF. Yes. Uh, they are. Uh, what a sell off. You know, what's more insane than the sell off is the fact that we called it out as it was going to happen. And, um, we're actually at my first real target. Rewind the stream before the market open. If then statement, if 60 to 70 does not hold, look to take profits between 412 and 425. I would take most there. If you want to like ride it. If you want to try to like, I, like I said, I would take majority of my profits here. And if you, whatever, want to do a stop to break even and then have like, maybe a reach target. Your reach target would be 400. Your reach target would be very much 400. Um, would you say that you are here every day telling us exactly what the market is going to do? Uh, no, I would say that I am here every day making the market do exactly what I want to do. So there's other people like ICT who are attempting to predict it. But if you're here in this community, like we are the movers. We are the danger. We're going full Walter White on this thing. Everyone is watching this show, trying to predict what we're going to do because we are the rainmakers here. We're the deciders. Um, so we don't need to predict it because it's our actions exclusively. It's our actions exclusively here. Uh, making these decisions, making these movements. So there's no need for us to predict because it's just us acting to be completely, to be completely honest. Matt is the market. Challenge that statement. We are the market. Have you seen our magnets? Have you seen what we've been able to pull off here? We are the markets. We are the dreamers. We are. Wait, we are the dreamers who dream dreams. We are the makers. Uh, what do you think of the show trading with Matt who owns rocket scooters? Sounds so sketchy. Who owns rocket scooter? Are you talking about rocket scooter? He's a scumbag liar. He owes me a hundred thousand dollars. I beat him in a trading competition. And then he ran away and said, after I beat him that he doesn't owe me the money because of like some stupid thing. But he's another scam artist. He's never actually had. Um, he, he saw me make a million dollars live. So he wanted to try to do it as well. And then he just have had, he kept funding his account, putting in money to make it look like it was going up. Like there's just so many scumbags in this world. Dude, ICC take my money and lose it. Just like you did with all my money. Uh, yeah. Rocket scooter, scumbag liar, ICT scumbag liar. To be honest about Patrick, I don't think he's actually lied. I think he has said some pretty crazy out there things. And depending on your level of sensitivity, you might care or don't care. I don't necessarily care, but I don't think Patrick has actually lied. Like, I don't think he's ever really been caught like, uh, trying to say or be something he's not. He's honestly pretty honest about the whole thing. Uh, which is wild. He just kind of owns it. And then the audience like eats that up. And he's like, yeah, whatever. We're fucking degenerate. Um, I don't think he's actually ever lied about anything. At least not that I know. Uh, at least that I know. Well. The only thing I have going on is I did catch this. I bought puts on Friday. So I'm not completely missing out on this. Uh, like I said, this was not a trade from today. I swung it over weekend and I'm up a good 40%. I'm up about 8k. So I'm not going to complain about that at all. So you might be wondering, oh, am I sitting here like angry? I didn't catch it. Well, I'm angry. I didn't catch it on futures. Like, yeah, that sucks. But, uh, at least I'm getting some exposure to it. I'm up $8,000 and climbing on my QQQ puts. So we're getting some of it. Can't, can't cry about it. Okay. Uh, how about the $1 million payout? I'm waiting patiently, patiently waiting. Uh, I don't think freaking out. Oh, okay. That's a legit breakdown folks. That's a legit breakdown. Next target. 28,000 flat. Followed by 27.6. Wow, look at that dagger. This is now like a four standard deviation move down. Look at this. Um, the two clouds. That's a one and a two standard deviation move. This actually on the 10 minute chart. This might be like a eight standard deviation move to the down to the south side. We are just ripping lower. Should be slowing down the soon with an interesting test. Uh, there's a put credit spread at seven, three, eight, five on SPX. So we are getting into some positive gamma. Yeah. It could kind of pop above that. It's 10 30. Um, you'd be looking at seven, three, eight, five. [01:34:26] Speaker ?: Yeah. [01:34:26] Speaker 4: Seven, three, eight, five. Wow. What a dagger. What a dagger folks. Uh, the spies pushing red, like I said, 7,400 flat. And then, uh, this is a new play as of today. It was not here at market open, but looking at seven, three, eight, five. So let me throw this up on the chart. Once again, seven, three, eight, five. Seven, three, eight, five right there. Uh, that is a put credit spread, which is a neutral to bullish bet. It is adding a little bit of positive gamma. Um, but we'll see if the market wants to respect that or not. We'll see. Uh, this is just a dagger. Sandisk is down 11% brutal. Micron is down six. [01:35:18] Speaker ?: Wow. [01:35:20] Speaker 4: ASML is down six. This is just, I don't even necessarily think that's pretty systematic. Mag seven. Yeah. Hit rolling over S and P 500. Even though price is getting hit. Uh, the options flow is not as bad as you think it would be. No, one's really touching calls. There was put buying, put selling, put buying. Now we're getting back into puts. Put buying again, trending down. Uh, put selling, put buying, put selling, put buying. Once again, no one's really touching calls on the S and P 500. The calls on a relative basis have been pretty flat. So once again, for the combined signal of SPX, SPY, XSP and ES pretty flat. Uh, but movement on the put side of things. Movement on the put side of things. Uh, I am 37 and absolutely shredded. I have a six pack and press one and a half times my body weight easily. That's funny. I am 32 overweight. My six pack can best be described as one flabby pack. And I can press 0.5 of my weight and not easily. And definitely not easily. So I feel like it's the same. If we really think about it. Same, same, but different. Same, same, uh, but different. A little bit of call buying coming in right at 400. [01:36:53] Speaker ?: Okay. [01:36:54] Speaker 4: Uh, as expected, we're seeing people trying to protect the key technical, psychological, and just like key zone of 400 flat. [01:37:03] Speaker ?: How do I know that? [01:37:04] Speaker 4: Well, I can see calls starting to pick up starting at 10:25 and even puts picking up starting at 10:30. Uh, have to get those numbers up. I'm trying to get more fat, you know, trying to get beefed up fat, trying to put on some LBs to protect myself for the winter. [01:37:31] Speaker ?: Uh, I'm black. [01:37:33] Speaker 4: I guess we are throwing out random facts about ourselves. [01:37:37] Speaker ?: Yeah. [01:37:37] Speaker 4: You're allowed to. My 23andMe, uh, says that I'm no black. I took the test hoping that I could be like, oh, I'm like 1% sub-Saharan African. And it came up a hundred percent European. So there's that. [01:37:56] Speaker ?: Dimension. [01:37:57] Speaker 4: I'm not gay. [01:37:59] Speaker ?: Hmm. Interesting. [01:38:00] Speaker 4: You had to bring that up to the rest of class. Interesting that you had to share that with the rest of class. Very, very interesting. [01:38:13] Speaker ?: All right. [01:38:14] Speaker 4: Let me throw in Piper, Piper, Piper, Piper, Piper, Piper. [01:38:18] Speaker ?: All right. [01:38:19] Speaker 4: If you are in the discord, uh, I'm posting it as quickly as I can. If y'all in the discord 20, what is today? [01:38:29] Speaker 5: The 27th. 27th. [01:38:34] Speaker ?: Uh, bu, bu, bu, bu, bu. [01:38:47] Speaker 4: All right. If you're in the discord Piper just fired, that's in there now. Um, I am riding this. Oh, wow. 11k. That's pretty sick. Uh, I'm actually riding this on the same position, just in two different accounts. Uh, not a bad day. Uh, so, uh, up 11k. Uh, up 11k unrealized. I'm saying unrealized cause it could get better and obviously could also get worse. And then I'm also riding the same position, just in a different account. Once again, more puts and I'm up another 5.5 K there. So what's that? Uh, 5,000 plus 11. So I'm up about 16 K. Uh, you know, I could use it. I've been on a pretty rough streak ever since I've come back. So I'll take it. Uh, did you see LeBron going to Philly? Yeah. Um, I hope he does well. It's just dude at his age and, and beam, he gets hurt. So he is like, I understand that they're trying to create a super team, but it feels like it's a super team that could fall apart so easily. So incredibly dependent on people who have a history of injuries and are injury prone, not getting injured. So we'll see. Uh, it'd be really, really cool for the 76ers to win or to even be like a reasonable contender. Uh, I'm here for it. I want it to happen, but if I'm a betting person, I just, it's tough. Like the, the chance of injury is so high and I don't want anyone to get hurt. I'm just saying we're looking at the odds. It's just, it's a bunch of people who get hurt. I'm hoping it doesn't occur, but I'm not the most optimistic about it. Matt, why is the market down? Um, Iran, it could be, I mean, I just think, I think a better explanation is we've had such a rip to the upside that this is now like, look at this. We just, it's such a pump that it is natural for the market to pump, pull back, pump, pull back, pump consolidation. It's not even that much of a pullback yet. Folks, we have a downside gap to 6,621. We're trading at 7,400. It, this is like a one day thing. I just, to me, there's actually a downside gap fill to 6,889. Like, I think we've gone up too far too fast and things just need to cool off. Channel is really going downhill, bro. I'm starting to see Kia commercials. I, I specifically asked for that. I was like, I know my audience loves Kia. Um, so you're welcome for that. We're growing. We're at almost 13 and we're at six. So we're at 19. I wonder, should I just take 20 K? I don't know the last time I made $20,000 in one day. [01:41:41] Speaker ?: That's not a bad deal. [01:41:42] Speaker 4: Maybe I should just take 20 K. We're at 19 right now. I'm strongly considering it. And also I'm kind of considering it because I can see we're at a key zone. Not only are we at the previous day's low right here, but we're at the zone of 400. Uh, how's this shaping up? S and P 500 options flow is flat. Mag seven is down. NASDAQ is down. Uh, maybe I wait for the test of 85. I'm going to set an alert for 87, but then one of it's, ah, how do I want to play this? Uh, I guess I should set an alert just because right here, I'm looking at this put credit spread. That's the less last positive gamma we have. So we could easily bounce. But if it doesn't, it's so. [01:42:39] Speaker ?: Hmm. [01:42:44] Speaker 5: All right. I'm going to set an alert. [01:42:47] Speaker 4: It. It could bounce here. But if it pushes to 85, if it pushes to 76. I'm now watching this 10 point region between 85 and 76. 85 is important because it's this put credit spread right here. You could see the sold premium, the long premium put credit spread. Uh, how big is it? It's sizable. It is, uh, buh, buh, buh, buh, buh. Why is it not tell me? It's 9,000 contracts. That's a sizable play. But that's the only positive gamma. If it does bounce out of this, it could easily rip through this negative gamma. But on the flip side, if it doesn't hold 85 on the daily chart, that sets us up for the swing low on Thursday, the 23rd. But remember coming up, we have an FOMC meeting. We have a bunch of earnings. Remember, uh, if you want the earnings, that's all here. I pinned it to the top of my profile. Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Lamb Research, uh, PayPal, Coca-Cola, Boeing, Amazon, Apple. Aftermarket close on Wednesday and Thursday. We have a lot. If these guys mix, miss, look out below. We might be talking 7,300. We might be talking 7,200. Take it all and go to Texas Roadhouse, dude. I'm not far away from it. Um, I mean, the watch is pretty easy at this point. Do we hold, does this bounce become anything or does it end up just getting smashed? Look at this waterfall in the Nasdaq. Look at that. Holy shit. [01:44:33] Speaker 5: It's free falling folks. Just getting destroyed. Wow. [01:44:41] Speaker ?: Well, I'm not complaining. We're making some money off of it. 12,500. Another six. So eight, just under 20K. I'm going to give it a little bit. There's still time left in the day. The Nasdaq did get hit. [01:44:47] Speaker 5: Maybe bottoming here. mag seven. [01:44:49] Speaker ?: S&P 500 showing some life. [01:44:49] Speaker 5: Uh, people started buying calls. Okay. They're trying to play it off of 7,400, but I think they made the wrong decision. [01:44:52] Speaker 4: Um, I'm not complaining. Yeah, I'm not complaining. I'm not complaining. I'm not complaining. I'm not complaining. We're making some money off of it. 12,500. Another six. So eight, just under 20K. I'm going to give it a little bit. There's still time left in the day. The Nasdaq did get hit. Maybe bottoming here. Mag seven. S&P 500 showing some life. Uh, people started buying calls. Okay. They're trying to play it off of 7,400, but I think they made the wrong decision. [01:45:17] Speaker 5: I think they made the wrong decision there. We are so far away from VWAP. [01:45:35] Speaker 4: Uh, are we going to hold 28,000 flat? So we're at two very important key levels. SPX is at 7,400 flat. Nasdaq is at 7,800 flat. [01:45:47] Speaker 5: And it just got annihilated. Annihilated. There it goes. [01:46:02] Speaker 4: There it goes. We're climbing. We're up to 15 now. 14,8. 14,8 plus seven. So now we just popped above. That's 21. We're officially, I could take the 20. Do I just think this is going to keep going? Seven, two climbing. Seven, two plus 15. Now we're at 22. It just, it just keeps climbing and climbing and climbing. Um, okay. So I have 25. I'm in at eight. So 25, let's sell 15 of these. Let's sell 12 of these at, uh, double 16. I'm in at eight. We'll get dump half at 16, make it a free play. Um, so we're going to try to see if we can get out because if I can dump half at a hundred percent gain, then I literally can't lose money on this play. Worst case scenario is these go bust. Um, this, the first half paid for the second half. So I'm in, I have 25. I'm trying to dump half 12 of them at 16. I'm in at eight trying to dump them at 16. And then, uh, how are these ones doing? Okay. I have 12 in at eight. Uh, so we'll dump six at 16, six at 16. If it lets me, and then, like I said, it becomes a free play. What's your open piano. Uh, oh, error occurred. [01:47:49] Speaker 5: Uh, open P and L is 22 K. Uh, six at six. Uh, six at 16, six at 16. Sell to close. [01:48:09] Speaker 4: What do I just, did I mess up my cookies or something? All right. We're coming up to that test at 85. [01:48:18] Speaker ?: Hang on. [01:48:19] Speaker 4: Let me just reload. Let me just reload. I think it's because I've been on this page forever. I opened it up last night. [01:48:29] Speaker 5: Six at 16. Uh, do I want to put the order? Come on. What's going on here? [01:48:38] Speaker 4: Do I need to log out and log back in? Maybe I'll do it on my phone. [01:48:47] Speaker 5: All right. I'm going to throw the order in on my phone just in case. [01:48:53] Speaker 4: Unless the market gods are telling me not to put in that order and it's going to keep going. This might be a sign from the market gods. [01:49:04] Speaker 5: It might be a sign from the market gods. Okay. Yeah. [01:49:11] Speaker ?: I got the order in on my phone. So something's up with my computer. Yeah. Orders in. Okay. [01:49:18] Speaker 5: Yeah. I got the order in on my phone. [01:49:20] Speaker 4: So something's up with my computer. Yeah. [01:49:23] Speaker ?: Orders in. [01:49:24] Speaker 4: So if there's like a vomit, like I'm just trying to stop myself from being greedy. Like I said, we're at 14. I'm in at eight. I'm just trying to double up and dump half of these, half of these on this trade and half of these on the public trade as well. So if it gets going, basically, if we don't hold this, what is this? Right. We're dancing just below 400. There's been no real pop to go back short into. I just had to. [01:50:01] Speaker ?: Yeah. [01:50:02] Speaker 4: This is just a runner without me. Well, technically I have it. We still have this positive gamma is quickly disappearing. [01:50:11] Speaker ?: Right here. [01:50:12] Speaker 4: All right. We have a patch of positive gamma from 85 to 420. That's the positive gamma. There is not much. If we do crack. How low can this go? [01:50:28] Speaker 5: Where is the positioning? [01:50:30] Speaker 4: 340, 310 on, on SPX. If we do not hold 85, 75, we'll just call it 80. I'd be looking at 340, 330, 310. But we'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. There has not been much of a pop to go short into. You kind of had to catch it early today. As much as this was a bloodbath, I don't think this was a bloodbath that was easy to get on board with. So, let's just see if this little pocket of positive gamma holds. Because if not, we're probably looking at another 40 plus point sell off. Very rare to start above the high of the previous day and go below the low. Like we did a full trip. We started above the high on Friday, cracked it, sold all the way to the closing value, the low value. Statistically, that is a rare thing to do. It is a rare, rare thing to do. What do we have here? Stunning. Donald Trump has earned more in his first two years back in office than during the previous 60 years of his life. Despite this, Trump told CNBC, "I gave up my salary. I don't take a salary. I'm the first president to do so." He added that serving as president is about a bigger purpose than collecting the official presidential paycheck. Well, let's see how much money he made. 2017, total revenue 594 million. 2025, total revenue 2.24 billion. Donald Trump is profiting off of his presidency. Donald Trump net worth between 20 and 25, a 273% increase from 2.3 billion to 6.3 billion. I kind of hate when politicians do this. They're like, "I'm giving up my paycheck." What do you mean you're giving up your paycheck? You're doing that for a speaking point, a talking point, when you made $4 billion. A 273% increase. I'm so sick and tired of the smoke and mirrors of, "Look over here. Look how good I am." If you're going to do stuff like this, just own it. Just own it. Be like, "Yeah, whatever. I make a shitload of money. Cry harder." This idea, it's just such a mismatched thing. You can't do one thing where you're like, "Oh my God, I'm so good." You're all multi-millionaire plus scumbags abusing your position. That's it. What are these numbers based on though? Estimated net worth, the value of the companies that he owns? Just own it. Justin, SpaceX has hit an all-time low of 110, and I believe it's continuing to dive. Yes, it is. It's below 110. What do we have? Elon has ruined me. Oh wow. Oh my Lord. Down half a million. $455,000 Canadian. Wow. Just getting destroyed on SpaceX. Holy cow. Well, this is why you don't chase IPOs, folks. Down half a million dollars. $455,000 Canadian. That's brutal. Kind of puts it into perspective if you thought you were having a bad day. [01:54:03] Speaker 5: Kind of puts it into perspective, doesn't it? Maybe your day's not so bad. [01:54:12] Speaker 4: In Canada, what is that? 50 bucks? Yeah. [01:54:16] Speaker ?: Yeah. [01:54:16] Speaker 4: I mean, this is what happens when you overstate, you're welcome. You gotta have, gotta have risk control. You got to. That's brutal. Brutal. All right. What other news are we missing? I'm still, like I said, I'm writing it down. I'm writing it down. I had one decent trade. We're up to the IB low. Let's see if it gets rejected at 20,100. If not, maybe pop to 150. You have VWAP at 291, 431. We're so incredibly far below VWAP. It's crazy. [01:54:58] Speaker 5: We'll see. All right. [01:55:01] Speaker 4: What other hot news are we missing? SpaceX, all time low. Obviously, single stock futures are launching tomorrow. NVIDIA, Tesla, SpaceX, and 52 more. Random AI slop. [01:55:27] Speaker 5: What is this one? So far, Warbucks BTC has sold zero accounts with the code ICT. Jesus. The drama going in on that is incredible. It's such a waste of time. [01:55:41] Speaker 4: How many of you, this has nothing to do with the market, but how many of you have seen the movie Odyssey? Is it worth it? Is it good? Is it not good? Obviously, there was a lot of drama surrounding it. So, I'm just kind of curious if Odyssey is worthwhile to watch or not. We are bouncing. I don't know. [01:56:04] Speaker ?: All right. [01:56:05] Speaker 4: Intraday low. 27,939. We are popping up. [01:56:14] Speaker 5: We are popping up. [01:56:15] Speaker 4: 153. It's three hours. 100% worth it. It's all relative. Half a mil isn't much if you have a large account. 100%, you'll see 70 millimeter IMAX worth it. [01:56:25] Speaker ?: It's pure garbage. [01:56:26] Speaker 4: Wow. We have really strong opinions across the board on this one. Some of you love it. Are we saving? Is the market getting saved here? Or is this pop worthwhile to get shorted? We are red. This might be the retest. We're going to see. Hang on. [01:56:51] Speaker 5: This might be coming up. [01:56:53] Speaker 4: We pop right back to the bottom. Or how high was this pop? 410. That's 404. Is it failing? Or does it have a little bit more in it? Options flow is picking up, but just ran into a flow alert. This might be the turning point. Just a little bit of an alert here. Delta reading is the highest. We're seeing a flow alert. The flow alert might be call selling. Large order might be put buying. Of course, it could keep going. It could be call buying and put selling. That's totally possible. It could be possible. I'm just here to let you know that a lot of the times when we see a flow alert, not all the time, but a lot of the time, it leads to a reversal in price. So based on whatever direction you're going, it seems as if there's anywhere from a five to a 10 minute delay. Then the orders are all placed. They're digested by the market and it does seem as if it switches. It's a woke crap show. How's it a woke crap show? What about it? [01:57:49] Speaker ?: What about it is woke? [01:57:49] Speaker 4: What about it is woke? [01:57:51] Speaker 5: What about it is woke? All right. [01:57:56] Speaker ?: I'm getting dialed in just in case I need a trade here. [01:58:02] Speaker 4: I heard that a lot of the things that people thought were woke were actually wrong. Elliot Page was playing Achilles, which was just not true. I heard that there was a lot of things that the internet ran with that were just like not true about it. A lot of non-Greekies. Non-Greekies. I'm not sure if that's what they're called. Non-Greekies. Well, like I said, I haven't seen it, so I can't like fairly comment on it. Non-Greekies. It was pretty good. You have to see an IMAX sound was really good. I heard it was really loud. I saw like memes kind of making fun of it for how incredibly loud it was. Oh, how do I want to do this? Brother, brother, brother, brother, brother. How do I want to do this? The trend. The flow alert hit. We're still kind of trending up on the S&P 500. Mag 7. The game might be. Oh, hang on. Mag 7 just took a hit. Recovery, recovery, recovery. Smash. Oh, sorry. Sorry. [01:59:37] Speaker ?: That was the Nasdaq. [01:59:37] Speaker 4: A lot of call selling calls. Bop, bop, bop. [01:59:40] Speaker ?: Smash. [01:59:44] Speaker 4: Let's see. This might. Can it get going? Can the SPX go green? Can it get above the one minute 50 EMA? Can NQ get above? Well, it's at 100. [01:59:56] Speaker ?: I guess. [01:59:56] Speaker 4: Could it get above 150? Feels like an important decision point of like, is this relief real? Or is this just like a short term thing and it's about to get annihilated? We did pop to the... No, we're in some positive gamma now. Positive gamma runs out at 420, 425, 385. We never really hit 385. We never really tested this put credit spread 9,000. [02:00:27] Speaker 5: What do we have going on? 45, 44. [02:00:38] Speaker 4: Decisions, decisions. I closed out for 10 points. So I'm up 200. No live position at the moment on futures. I do have puts on the Nasdaq for sometime in August. So I have time. I'm going to give this a second, but I'm on my toes. I'm wondering if this is worthwhile to be faded. Obviously the prevailing trend is down, but I am seeing a decent bid come in here. Let me show you what I'm seeing. Yeah, there's some positive gamma. The Nasdaq did get hit. So that's suggesting a reversion to the south side. Mag seven, a little bit of life, but where I'm seeing the most strength is here is in the spy. So someone is trying to protect the 400. The question is, does that person have enough money to pull it off? [02:02:05] Speaker 5: Does that person have enough money to pull it off? Yes, no, maybe so. [02:02:15] Speaker ?: All right, waiting. [02:02:16] Speaker 4: I don't have any pending orders yet, but I'm getting ready. [02:02:30] Speaker 5: I'm doing what I can. [02:02:45] Speaker ?: I don't have any pending orders yet. [02:02:46] Speaker 2: I don't have any pending orders yet. I don't have any pending orders yet. [02:02:48] Speaker 4: I don't have any pending orders yet. I don't have any pending orders yet. I don't have any pending orders yet. [02:02:51] Speaker ?: I don't have any pending orders yet. I don't have any pending orders yet. I don't have any pending orders yet. I don't have any pending orders yet. I don't have any pending orders yet. I don't have any pending orders yet. [02:02:57] Speaker 5: I don't have any pending orders yet. I'm on the wrong chart. [02:03:01] Speaker 4: Oh, I'm on the wrong chart. I locked in a quick little scalp, and now it's going against me rather aggressively. How much space do I want to give this? I'm looking, I'm trading NQ, but I'm mainly looking at SBX because SBX, if it has bullishness, that's the bullish one. The NASDAQ has been weaker. So I'm watching this zone here. Does it? What's the retest going to look like? Let's see. Patience, patience, patience. So I took a two contract short, locked in one really, really quickly, and now I'm in the other one, and it is not looking good at the moment. Basically, I'm trying to catch it back down. The question is, how much room do I give it? At what point do I admit that I'm wrong, if wrong? That, it's just, it's a pump vest from 88, and it's still going. I'm kind of watching 425 here. I was hoping it would get a little bit more rejected. I thought it was going to run into an issue, and this red to green move at 412 was really the play. I was like, okay, cool. Here's the one minute 50 in May. Here's a key level. I was expecting the people who played it off of 400 to take profits at 412. It might be a little bit of an overshoot. I'm going to give it quite a bit. LOL, guy's an idiot. Who's an idiot? [02:04:36] Speaker ?: Christopher Nolan? [02:04:38] Speaker 5: Who's an idiot? Christopher Nolan? [02:04:42] Speaker ?: Who's an idiot? [02:04:43] Speaker 5: I don't think he's an idiot. [02:04:46] Speaker 4: I mean, isn't he one of the most successful directors of all time? Shit, that was a retest. [02:05:13] Speaker 5: Are we running out of pump? [02:05:20] Speaker 4: Okay. Either this is really going to get going, or we're turning basically now. Those are kind of our two options here. We're ripping through this negative gamma, or we're going to get kind of smacked at 425-ish, 420, somewhere in here and come back down. Those are what I perceive to be our reasonable two options. [02:05:48] Speaker 5: Which one is it? Wow. Look at that climb. What goes down must go up, I guess. What goes down must come up. [02:06:11] Speaker ?: All right. [02:06:12] Speaker 4: We're back kind of in this equilibrium. Cloud trying to push a little green. Will it hold, or is it going to... Oh, I don't know. Snapping 86 is dangerous. Snapping 63 is even worse on NQ on this reversion, but let's see. And then for SPX, you're looking... It's dangerous below 407, pretty bad below 403. Looking at some of these recent structural lows here. I'm still in that short where I've locked in profits on one of them. The other one's underwater at the moment. And I'm wondering if I should have just got out. Fuck. This is getting a little confusing. Let me clean up the charts a little bit. That's a pump. Dropping to the 15 second. Look at that. Just a perfect pump. Wow. All right. Almost back. I'm going to figure out where I can update my risk. My short, just so everyone knows, is at 133. I'm currently underwater. By about whatever, how many of the points that is. Shit. Look at that. Do I just want to dump it? It's not playing out exactly how I thought it would. Let me look at flow. Spy is trying to turn. Do I want to give it space? [02:08:01] Speaker ?: Spy. [02:08:02] Speaker 4: This is a tough one. It didn't really tag it. I guess I was like kind of early to play. I was waiting for the structural setup and I did. It just didn't go in my way. Now I'm trying to hold on to it. Trying to give this room to see if it gets rejected right here. Because I'm putting various. Like we're at the top of positive gamma. I'm wondering if it comes back down. I'm wondering if it doesn't go into negative. I just need to be very mindful about my risk. How do I want to do it? Okay. If it can take out 38. I'm looking. I know I'm jumping all over. But on. What's this low? Right here. If it takes out 38. I can at least update my risk a little bit. Because. I don't have to take on such. I had visions of grandeur for a second there folks. Visions of grandeur that it was going to all be a. Okay. How's flow looking? Spy starting to turn. How is price not dropping? I was looking for this. It's just not being reflected quite yet in price. But the spy. It pump, pump, pump. Maybe seeing a high there. I'm seeing the Delta start to get hit a little bit. People are starting to sell their calls. Why is price not doing what I thought it would do? Mag seven kind of chilling. Nazic is going down too. I'm on the right side of options flow. It's just. How much of a shot do I really give this? That's the real question. [02:09:35] Speaker 5: That's the real question. How much of a shot do I give this? [02:09:43] Speaker 4: I need it to take out some sort of previous low. And it's just not doing it. It's successfully climbing higher highs and higher lows. It's just. How much pain can I withstand on this? It's just a bummer. I guess I do wish I waited for the tag at 25. 25 seems pretty important and it just didn't do that. That's on me. I could have probably executed that better. [02:10:12] Speaker 5: That's not going my way. That's not going my way. That's not looking good. [02:10:25] Speaker 4: Yeah, it's getting. Right here. Okay, we tagged 25. Well, I'm going to find out soon if I'm right or wrong on this one. I probably should have waited for this point. I just thought that this weakness, it was going to turn earlier. So I kind of got into it a little early. But hey, whatever. If it worked out, I would have seemed like a genius. And in this case, I should have been more patient, obviously. Oh, come on. Come on. Come on. Why does it keep getting disconnected? That went bullish. Five minutes still bearish. 10 minutes still bearish. 30 minutes still bearish. So the one minute trying to push right here. Same thing. One minute pushing. Five minutes bearish. 10 minutes bearish. 30 minutes bearish. [02:11:07] Speaker ?: Okay. [02:11:07] Speaker 4: Was that it? Was that just the 25? Okay. I kind of should probably use that as my risk. Because if it goes past this, obviously my read on the situation was just simply wrong. But I do need it to take out 38 here. Failed breakout. Little wick high. Okay. I could update my risk. Hopefully that is a fine update. Remember, I am short at 33. So I am underwater right now, which is not the most enjoyable. But like I said, I was waiting for this test at 25. Why 25? Why do I keep going on about that? Well, because right here, it is just where it is the gamma zero intersection between negative and positive. It is also roughly the spot gamma applied one day move low. We just saw various positioning there. So I was wondering, I could have had such a better fill if I just was a bit more patient. That just feels like resulting Monday morning quarterbacking. Because when it broke down where I took it, it could have easily vomited. It could have easily vomited. Oh, this is not wicked again. So buyers are stepping in right there. Buyers are stepping in right here. I need it back below 420. I need this to turn like fast. I can't. I've already been updating my risk to this recent high just above 200. So I'm not being completely degenerate with it, but I'm still trying to be hopeful. It's just not breaking my way. Even this was my opportunity here at 1107. I needed that to keep going. Come on. Lower high breakdown. If it can just take out this zone, this 140 to 130 zone, I might be okay. Am I short? Yeah. And the reason for this short is once again, it's asymmetric. It's just, I waited for the pump to here. So then if it falls all the way, ideally I'm risking a little for a potential big reward. And obviously the momentum on the day, 5 minute, 10 minute, 30 minute bearish, 5 minute, 10 minute, 30 minute bearish. So I was just waiting for the shorter time reversion to ideally break back in the favor of the larger timeframe, which is my favorite way to trade. I don't really see a reason to be long here because I'm looking for this rejection of 25 back to 400. And I can reevaluate there. I didn't want to chase this whole thing down. So I waited. I just went short at 11 when it turns out I should have probably waited for 1106, but woulda, coulda, shoulda. I'm now seeing this lower high. So maybe I get lucky. Here's our third test of 138. Remember I'm short at 133. So I almost got back to break even for a second there. but buyers just keep they're defending it like no other yeah somewhere between 130 and 140 come on just snap someone snap it come on just snap it come on break it break it break it break it break it break it break it break it [02:14:56] Speaker 5: break it break it come on [02:15:12] Speaker 1: you can break it [02:15:13] Speaker 4: fuck every time I think it's going to go it just won't 198 so reject that 200 is it going to be like we're just going sideways and now it's just going to be a game of am I lucky and I called out that top remember I'm playing it off the 25 level and I see SPX taking a hit not really seeing NQ take the biggest hit unfortunately for me I just need it to snap below 130 and then I should be good come on what goes up must come down right gravity has to win out I thought there was a theory of gravity theory of gravity a law of gravity do I need a magnet do we need to start cheating come on come on there Tonto NASDAQ is flat MAG7 popped up kind of giving it back S&P 500 is getting hit but maybe a little weird bottoming there on the S&P 500 it is call selling a little bit of put bottoming but or put buying but it did bottom at 1110 MAG7 pop but kind of giving it back NASDAQ flat at the bottom I mean I'm on the right side of larger momentum and I don't think it's the craziest thing for us to retest 400 I just the ranges today have been big and the question for me is what do I want to risk to see here every time I look up and I think I'm going to be good every time it's pushing here folks if you have a giant magnet I would appreciate the help on this one I really would if you guys have the ability to put up a magnet on your chart it would be super helpful for me in this particular time of need thank you thank you thank you thank you the larger the magnet the better use whatever color is your favorite but I don't I don't ask you folks for much so I'm going to ask you for the assistance on this particular play assistance on this particular play come on you know you want a break you know you want a break a quick flush to 86 a quick flush to 86 seems like it's building to go long unfortunately it just got a little profit but let's see what are you seeing that's building to go long like what about this is telling you long versus short the way I read it is it's indecision it doesn't know which way it wants to go and that's what going flat means [02:18:08] Speaker 5: a little bit of a break [02:18:33] Speaker 4: can I update my risk I'm just trying to be like I don't want to be too early because sometimes when you just see the big red numbers it kind of like freaks you out but then sometimes it causes you to anchor your risk to a point that's not quote unquote reasonable I mean right there it just keeps wicking below is it going to break or not that's technically a lower low we did take out the low from 1102 but is that the fake out I'm just a little uncomfortable with where my risk point actually is but maybe patients will pay here maybe I just need [02:19:15] Speaker 5: risk is currently [02:19:26] Speaker 4: at 206 it's that's too wide of a risk I'm just kind of having it there but I'm looking thank you if you're using the magnet thank you thank you thank you we're trying to see how we could get rocking on this one the indicator that's just EMAs just literally basic run-of-the-mill EMAs it just has a colorization in between them for ease of I guess visuals but these are just literally exponential moving averages it's like I think it's like the 8 the 13 and the 48 I always just use the 10 the 20 the 50 Matt I will long and it will go down for sure thank you Stephen if you could hop on that for me okay we're finally in the money we maybe did something right the question is where [02:20:21] Speaker 5: hang on I'm just trying to think here [02:20:51] Speaker ?: okay [02:20:55] Speaker 4: okay I got really close because remember the trade if eyes are running on different consistency so those almost locked in are you kidding me we got as low as 87 and mine's at 85 that's brutal okay let's lock these in [02:21:14] Speaker 2: order filled [02:21:16] Speaker 5: okay [02:21:25] Speaker ?: okay [02:21:25] Speaker 5: trade [02:21:31] Speaker 4: defies locked in another 1.2k done on those today max out the consistency we're looking good on the lucids and on the mffs the max is 1.5k which is exactly I'm at 1300 already locked in oh wait hang on I can update [02:21:54] Speaker 5: this [02:21:54] Speaker 4: okay all I need is just above 70 because I already made 250 trying to lock in 1250 and that would bring me to the 1500 and then other than that there's no consistency or anything like that on the TPT so I could let that one run so just trying to manage all the different accounts based on the rules for those accounts so once again trade defies are done max those out 1.2k there's no advantage in me trading those and hopefully I can pass them tomorrow obviously I'm trying to lock in the lucids and the MFFs right here because that would actually pass no no wait yeah it would because then they would be at 5300 so I just need another 200 bucks on these which I could probably go break even at this point on those okay so I went break even on those come on no 71 I was within one point come on fill it fill it fill it all right cool so I passed almost passed these well I passed all the lucids by two dollars the MFFs I need that's annoying hang on let's see if we can pass these properly so technically I didn't pass I have three dollars and forty cents to go so I'm done on the trade of fives max those out I'm done on the lucids I officially passed those [02:23:29] Speaker 11: order filled [02:23:34] Speaker 5: and let's see wait that's the wrong account [02:23:39] Speaker 4: shit okay my bad keep it together Matt keep it together Matt [02:23:46] Speaker 5: keep it together keep it together let's not freak out [02:23:58] Speaker 4: I'm just trying to get these MFFs above 53 order filled all right boom just did it boom boom boom boom quick little scalp trade so I have passed all the lucids so those are done they're all above 53 I pass all the MFFs they're done they're above 53 trade a fives I max those out and I only have six hundred and what fourteen dollars to go and then other than that I'm in the take profit trade which are open and let's see how those are looking [02:24:34] Speaker 5: let's see how those are looking six seven three [02:24:45] Speaker 4: six seven three almost to break even how do I want to do it because these are unrealized drawdown so that's a huge bummer but maybe it gets rejected right here or maybe I just hold it and wait to see it sucks going up a lot because that can really hurt you in fact it might already kind of be screwing me I didn't realize how much I was up on that are you kidding me that had happened so fast well I can't get out now all right so the only other ones to hopefully this gets here then I could just put my stop to break even but this is unrealized drawdown and that trading unrealized drawdown right when the account is fresh is when you're at your highest danger so I'm just looking for this to crack hopefully we have a lower high I just needed to take out 100 again I'll put the stop to break even and then I'll just let it sit there for rest of the day and maybe I get lucky maybe I do maybe I don't maybe I do maybe I don't but yeah I want this to come back below 100 all right thank you for all that help little fake out there these are the two levels I had it pierced it popped so I'm looking for this failure looking for this failure what time is it 11 21 I did do I want to add another contract here do I want to add to the short position I could do a free trade do I do it I should probably do a free trade right right team all right it's a free trade so I'm not going to lose money at least I'll keep it but I am eating into the unrealized drawdown should [02:26:47] Speaker ?: I [02:26:47] Speaker 4: leave the risk as this swing high 52 that's risking 380 shit [02:26:55] Speaker 5: is it coming for me [02:27:01] Speaker 4: hang out let's do our sanity check whoa almost spilled my coffee ah that's a lot of money 198 if it takes out 102 we're so good so it never touched 100 I wanted it to tag 100 I could just leave an alert either for 48 and walk away or 98 100 and dude 150 points is that really the range we're dealing with right now that's brutal so I'm kind of looking for the snap of 198 and actually it stays above 200 or I'm looking for the snap of 48 and we go all the way down to 939 what is I maybe 152 but 152 I'm in at 133 so that's a 19 point risk that's 400 bucks I'm up 200 so that'd be negative two but my bigger concern is these are unrealized drawdown it's an unrealized draw I kind of have to go for it [02:28:07] Speaker ?: I [02:28:11] Speaker 4: can't go red but at that point it went up that much oh wow so I'm like really I've already eaten into my unrealized drawdown a lot like a lot a lot so this trade basically has to work where I'm screwed because I just don't have that much leeway what's going on with the FFN accounts I still have them I just don't trade them as much because they're rhythmic but like I have them it's just I'm trying to figure out what I want to do with it to be completely honest I've been working a lot on new trading strategies and they have so much buffer that it's like a unique opportunity for me to try some new strategies I haven't tried in a bit so really the reason I'm not actively trading them isn't even the data feed it's because of it's just taking me forever to figure out the exact specifics of the new system I want to use but I looked at them and they're up so much money that it really is like a unique opportunity so I'm just trying to do my best to not fumble the opportunity and do my okay so the question is do I put in a buy at 3,500 probably that would be a really nice gain [02:29:37] Speaker 5: and then 43 [02:29:46] Speaker 4: 45 is where I max out the buffer so 45 is a max buffer so this horizontal line is a max buffer once again I'm only everything else I've already maxed out I've completed on the day the final thing are these TPTs and that horizontal line is max buffer 25 how many cycles do I want to hold this oh man oh man oh man how do I want to play this I like without the unrealized drawdown the obvious move here is a stop to break even I want to be very clear if you're trading your own personal account or if it's end of day drawdown or something like that you would make it a free trade and if it collapses great you make a bunch of money and if it reverts against you if this was a fake out here whatever no sweat off your back no crying but TPT when you have it maxed out the buffer is a little bit of a different beast a little bit of a different beast is that a higher low I don't know what I want to do with my risk and I'm also at the point where this has gone so far on this wick in my favor that I just don't have much [02:31:07] Speaker 5: yeah this is max buffer right here we didn't quite hit [02:31:21] Speaker 4: it it really can't go against me by that much I kind of just need to get lucky I need this to actually break here or I'm fucked how lucky do I feel do I think that this will actually hold do I think 151 is a lower high and then this capitulates all the way down to 960 how [02:31:59] Speaker 5: how lucky am I going to get [02:32:00] Speaker 4: do I feel lucky today we're just going flat at the IB low picking up a little bit picking up a little bit just below 100 is it going to kiss 100 and get rejected maybe we should check in on what's really been leading the show today SPX it hasn't touched okay let me set this up 7400 yet I want to see the retest of here danger zone is obviously below 400 [02:32:33] Speaker 5: danger [02:32:35] Speaker 4: zone danger danger danger danger danger danger danger how would you guys play this right now with TPT and I'm asking you because it's like this is specific to the rules of TPT that I'm currently battling of how to do it with the unrealized drawdown because on 50k accounts it's not from your highest realized profit it's from your highest unrealized and right now I'm at I've maxed it out if this comes back and I go if I go red by 10 points I'm done but game's over that just doesn't give me much leeway it would be way easier if this was a lucid or trade if I account because I could just set the stop to break game and move on with my life really it's do I think this is going to break because if it breaks I have such a good chance of locking in 3,500 across five accounts is the risk reward [02:33:46] Speaker 5: worth it is the risk reward worth it I mean I'm on the right side of trend SPX didn't hit 7,400 [02:34:03] Speaker 4: NASDAQ popped up a little bit but it's trending down MAG7 did pop up kind of giving it back SPY took a hit went up went flat so not really moving we got rejected at the gamma zero line the next gamma zero line is actually low it's 7,385 I think I just have to risk it today and go for it and see how it plays out I might end up losing these accounts but then if I don't I have enough buffer to actually trade them so is it worth it can I get lucky on this one trade which when you're talking about it's one thing to look at the stats are you resulting did you get lucky did you get unlucky like sometimes that stuff's out of your control it'd be completely different if I could like somehow well I could move the risk to like 102 105 600 that would give me more buffer I could be aggressive with the risk so it feels like putting the risk at breakeven right now is the worst one because if it gets hit I have like two to three hundred dollars of room to play with so the other I feel like I have two options I either have to be really aggressive with the risk and just track this recent high and 600 that gives me about half or just say no risk at all and we're either hitting the profit or we're not I think based on the setup and based on the current rules going to breakeven for these accounts is the worst option if I had an end of day drawdown such as Tradeify or Lucid going to breakeven or using 51 would be optimal and I'd probably go breakeven but on MFF play it slightly differently so really do I this is interesting because if it breaks 45 if it snaps 45 then there's actually like a legit argument to maybe move it to 94 this recent swing high because that would ensure 40 points 800 so then I would have half my buffer that's an interesting concept that's an interesting one I created some bearish pressure hope that helps thank you Scarlett that's so incredibly kind okay so actually should I do that I don't love it because I'm not protected by 100 but it does if it comes back up I at least have a thousand dollars to work with what would you do would you guys move it to 94 right now like just this recent swing high and guarantee yourself X amount of points or what would you do would you put the stop in at 94 or no stop at all what would you do what would you do lock in some pro I can't I only have one I can't do the sum thing because it's short right here short one contract flush down Rob you would hold it my stops at 94 because I could do something like this guarantee myself 765 and I've already made 250 so if that gets hot I'm up 1000 and granted I ate into my buffer by 1000 but then I still have 1000 the issue is at 94 95 I don't have the protection of 100 or even the 1 minute 50 EMA that would look something more 133 but then if it hits that I'm really screwed and I want to be clear this is only something to consider but if I'm above the buffer I could take a payout today but then better than that is a 3.5k buffer I don't I'm not even wearing my lucky buffalo shirt earlier this morning I was wearing a lucky piper shirt but then my son puked on it so not wearing that one so where is my look at where are my vibes at really what's going on at 7400 this is a better question here what in the world so SPX we did snap 7400 I'm up 11.6 I did put those orders [02:38:55] Speaker 2: in [02:38:56] Speaker 4: 28,000 basically it's are we holding this key zone SPX is at 7400 flat NQ is just north of 28,000 the question is are we going to hold these cyclological levels or are we going to flush we're playing a dangerous game we're playing a dangerous game did you puke on your buffalo shirt and you're just blaming your son shit how'd you know how'd you know how did you know blaming my son for no reason it was me it was I who did it dude we've been in this play for a minute the trade was executed at 11 I've been in this for 35 minutes now granted made some good money oh obviously the ones I'm trading TPT what you're seeing is the real time advantage of TPT I can let it run because there's no consistency and actually anything above 2k I'm at 2.5 I could take out today so you could do that on the first day of funded that is a huge advantage of TPT they're the only one who really does it like that no consistency rule and you can take daily payouts if you want to take advantage of that 40% off and no activation fee which means you can get rocking on the 50k account all mine costs less than $100 all these 50k accounts come on 86 how would that look should I do 86 102 or do I just let it ride do I just need to be more calm and just let it ride let's remove that [02:41:08] Speaker 2: I see 400 [02:41:20] Speaker 4: is giving up here on SPX remember we're looking for 85 that's this it's this put credits spread it's about 9000 on the 30 day look back this is a 99 percentile gex play we are looking at this put credit spread if this gets cracked this player could be in trouble and then it could get way worse way way worse all right we're at that test all right this is confusing me I don't need that so we're at 28,000 basically are we going to flush 17.5k there and then obviously I'm riding puts as well up 12k on that one and then how much up another six over there so up about 18k on the puts which and then up about 13k over there come on come on come on show me the money show me the money show me the money show me the money show me the money show me the money go go go go just one nice red bar just like let's not even think about it market let's just come straight down let's hit my target let's call it a day let's do it brother let's do it come on come on come on I need May June July it's been rough can we end July on a profitable momentum streak can we do it let's snap it let's just get this fill a nice 3.5k let's do it let's do it let's do it let's do it let's do it let's do it let's do it come on calm cool collected folks calm cool collected we can do it no no no don't recover 28,000 can't you just flush first no no reject 28,000 no no no no [02:43:25] Speaker ?: no [02:43:26] Speaker 4: okay this one did sweep we're going for 85 I have the alert set uh-oh is it going to bounce there are we bouncing a wee bit early are we bouncing a wee bit do I have to wait for the next cycle that's a bounce shit all all right that got as low as 80 I need 58 for my fill now I have to be patient I'm short at 133 I'm up 2.3k per contract I'm I'm short at 133 all the way up here like I said my trade was a little bit earlier I just need this to get smacked and maybe need to also pick a better risk point come on okay here's the smack go below 28,000 we're good just come back below come back below we're going to be hunky dory take profit and roll out I'm trying to we got really close I'm just kind of the market like see pump drop pump drop pump basically I'm just hoping I'm trying to go through this next pump cycle and seeing I'm hoping that the pump height isn't that high I'd prefer it just gets rejected now but you could see it it drops it pumps it drops it pumps it pumps it pumps you never know the size of these things I'm just trying to wait through this next pump cycle and I'm hoping that the drop goes below 80 and like I said all I need is 58 which is that nice round value of me making 3.5k per contract if I wanted to I could actually get rid of this profit target and just let it run and just move my stop to 30 because that is 2k so that's another should I do that is that a better way to do it maybe instead of this profit target just in case we actually puke and go I could put a stop because then that maxes out my buffer so I wouldn't be eating into any of my buffer because the buffer is only 2k and if I'm short at 133 obviously 100 points is the 2k is that a better way to play it and then if we actually have a puke day that's interesting concept it's an interesting concept I'm looking at that 30 pump [02:46:06] Speaker 5: I'm looking at that 30 pump cause how far could this actually [02:46:16] Speaker 4: go today 750 that's another 250 points like it's that's an interesting way to play it is move well first obviously it's only a consideration if this [02:46:37] Speaker 2: breaks down which it does not seem to be doing [02:46:44] Speaker 4: that quite yet whatever this pop is whatever the height of this is I wonder I liked it because it was 100 points and the 100 points that helps me with the unrealized buffer like I don't really this can get really dangerous honestly I know it looks good but I'm playing a really dangerous game right now like I what's the height of this 42 so that would be exactly I think my buffer point is 45 so that's an this is pumping right now still the question is is if it takes out 28 thousand flat again and definitely if it takes out 980 should I just move it to whatever this high is because then that maxes out the buffer and then that gives me an opportunity to ride it all day so if there is like another 200 point capitulation I mean that could be 4k per account that could be 20k which I want to be clear is not likely but what I'm looking at is what happens if this guy gets cracked so we're bouncing off this for the second time but what happens if they test this and this guy is forced to dump this put credit spread or if he's just blown out there's more negative gamma beneath once again it's not likely this is a big play but I'm thinking about what if it does so the way this would be structured I'm sure hi okay so this guarantees it guarantees I make 1760 I've already made 250 so that guarantees I have the buffer which actually it might make the decision for me really quickly here order filled all right whatever 2k exactly can't cry about it okay max out the buffer I didn't want to go in and give back my buffer on that particular trade so maybe something this afternoon sets up maybe I mean it just sucks because this could go to 80 that would eat into my buffer and then I'm sweating it or that literally tagged me perfectly and now it's going to puke I passed lucid that's a lot of green and if it does puke I'm not missing out on anything I have 11k on those puts and I have an additional 5k over there so there's 17k riding I locked in whatever amount of money this is did I play it perfectly no but if your goal is to play it perfectly you're always going to be upset because you just don't know what there's too much randomness in the short term unfortunate about my trade is it's already like I got knocked at 45 which was just exactly 2k if I gave it a little bit more room I probably would have been fine yeah this this yeah just got rejected right there that that's a bummer but once again you don't want to let unfortunate events like that cause you to spaz out and get tilted but I did I got knocked at 45 it went to 48 and now it's already down to 20 so that sucks for me but hey coulda woulda shoulda coulda woulda shoulda that is the life of trading all right folks that's what I have for you today I'm happy with my performance I play it perfectly nope but I'm never going to play it perfectly if you do it is more luck than anything else before I let day and streaming once again tomorrow I'm going to try to get back into that pattern of starting earlier and giving you guys the 30 minute full breakdown before we get trading so it's kind of dependent on just my other dad duties in my life but that is going to be the goal from here on out is returning to normal I appreciate all the good vibes today pretty wild day I hope you made a bunch of money and if not hey there's always a remainder of the day and there's always tomorrow like I said thanks for all the good vibes thanks for all the tidbits input and advice I'll catch you guys on the flippity flip peace [02:51:55] Speaker ?: peace