Tomorrow Will Be F*cking Insane! (Stock Market Analysis)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Dingity ding ding ding. Another trading session is officially in the books and here's the TLDR for the day. At least according to President Trump, we're screwed. Not only was the price action of the day kind of chaotic and choppy and whipsaw, which is probably why the bags under my eye are even worse than normal because I was stressed AF. Apparently, it's going to get that much worse tomorrow, at least according to the President. So as you might imagine, in this video, that's exactly what we'll be getting into. I'll be breaking down all the major news and price action and developments of the day, but most importantly, I'll be diving into what you need to be paying attention tomorrow. I pray you're watching this video in time because if this catches you off guard, you might be in trouble. And of course, make sure you stick around until the end because I'll give you my own thoughts and opinions of where I see the market going in the short term. But very quickly, if you haven't already, if you guys could do me a huge favor and help me out by hitting that like button, subscribing, and don't forget to turn on your notifications. All that engagement really does help me out with getting this video in front of other people who might want to join the Goonie trading community. So when the market officially closed on the day and my stress levels went from 100 all the way down to five, here is the official headline. S&P 500 retreats from record Tuesday as JP Morgan slides. Traders evaluate multiple Trump edicts. So I'm not going to spend too much time on it in this video, but you should know JP Morgan did have their earnings early today. They weren't so good, which is why the stock and really the whole financial sector took a little bit of a hit, but we have more pressing things to talk about. The overall market technically have a red day, but we are pretty much at the all time high. We will be circling back to that. The Nasdaq, we almost got that upside gap a little bit more to go. And then of course, from there, I'm looking to get into the realm of the all time high, the small cap sector, even though it's sold off and I know everyone's going to call it an inverted Hamill or shooting star or whatever you want to call it. But yes, we did hit an all time high today. Bitcoin, even though it's nowhere close to the all time high, I love this structure. In fact, I should make a standalone video on why I believe this is a great time to be going long Bitcoin right now, but that is a beautiful technical breakout. We're above all the EMAs. We have higher lows. We're about to challenge the technical high. I absolutely love it. And I might be adding some to my long-term portfolio, but speaking of gold, I know this is digital gold, actual gold also hit an all time high today. And it wasn't the only commodity. We have silver here clocking once again, another new all time high. So I know this is kind of strange. I'm starting off this video by saying new high, new high, new high looking good, but yet Trump is telling us we're screwed. It kind of obviously brings up a little bit of a contradiction and really to better understand this price action along with why tomorrow is going to be chaotic AF. Well, there's a couple of things you need to understand. First things first at 830 this morning, an hour before the market opened, we got another inflation report. The CPI report pretty much came out in line. If you look at the core CPI month over month, it was a little bit lighter than expected, which is exactly why in pre-market trading, things were looking even better. And right here, Trump himself was pretty excited. Just out. Great low inflation numbers for the USA. That means Jerome, too late pal, should cut interest rates meaningfully. If he doesn't, he will just continue too late. Also out. Great growth numbers. Thank you, Mr. Tariff, President DJT. So obviously posting those numbers. And if you look at the intraday action, we were starting off pretty strong. If you look back at 830, but you could see it just simply did not hold. We sold off, we popped, and we sold off again. Bitcoin ripped all day. Gold kind of got hit all day. If you looked at the options movement, really confusing. We sold off, we popped, we sold off, we popped. The MAG7 sold off, popped, sold off, and actually had a nice rally to close, which is part of the reason why I think the bull camp still has a fighting chance. So overall, it was messy. Now, this is going to be a small part of the video, but very important for active day traders, scalp traders. I want to point out something in the S&P 500 that all of you traders can do. Notice here at 1020, we made a low. Notice here at just past 2pm, we made a low. Notice here at 330, we made a low. How could you know that these were reasonable lows that might be an opportunity to buy? Well, look at the big money positioning in the market. This is the, from spot gamma. This is the gamma map. I rewound all the way to 930 today, and this is the initial structure. Purple is positive gamma, and then you have this red that is negative gamma. Let's fast forward to 1030, the first bottom of the day. Where did it bottom? Right here. Positive gamma, positive gamma. Everything else is negative gamma. It is the hedge wall. It's the spot gamma implied. One day move low. Not that surprising. Fast forward to 1130, a little bit of a bounce, more positive gamma coming in right where these weeks are. 1230, similar situation. Positive gamma going up a little bit. If we go to 130, okay, we're coming back down. Look at still all this positive gamma right where we're bottoming out. And we go to 230, right where we bottomed out. Surprise, surprise. Look where that positive gamma is. And I also want to point out, okay, we have positive gamma above. The question is, is that going to be resistance? And once again, we're not there yet, but it's 230. And all of a sudden, if I fast forward to, let's just say 350, uh-oh, we popped all the way up to here. Let me go back just one, two, three rungs. So you can see where it was right there. Uh, six, nine, six, five. Where did we end the day at 4 PM after bouncing off this clear support right there at 60. So this is a way where it's not Monday morning quarterbacking. I'm pointing out the information before the price movement happened and just looking at where all these positive and negative gamma nodes are. So like I said, phenomenal tool. It's from spot gamma. It's in the description below, but just an easy way to say, okay, I'm buying here and we're going to see if we get a bounce. Yeah. We got some bounce at the end of the day. Of course, it's not like one to run home to mom about, but I just wanted to put it on your radar. So that's pretty much the story on what happened, but you're probably considering where in the world are we going? Well, first things first, Wednesday, January 14th, an hour before the market opens, we're getting another inflation report, the PPI report, the producer price index. Simultaneously, we're going to get retail sales. And you should also know Wednesday is the expiration of vol contracts, of VIX contracts in OPEX weeks, which happens to be this week, Friday, all the equities contracts are going to be expiring. So the Wednesday before, as in tomorrow, the 14th, that's when you get VIX expiration. So yes, you have major macroeconomic events, you have structural expiration, and this time around, you have something a little bit special. Trump says we're screwed if Supreme Court rules against his tariffs. At 10 a.m. tomorrow on the 14th, we are expected to hear from the Supreme Court of are Trump's tariffs slash duties legal? More specifically, can he use IEPA, I-E-E-P-A, to really give us tariffs and duties and that type of a thing? Because it's not explicitly called out in IEPA. So we're going to be finding out. I'm not going to make any political projections right now. I think I'm going to be there with you and wait to see what's going on. But on that note, we do have an idea of the odds of these being legal or illegal. And at the point that I'm filming this, they're probably not legal. Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs only 27%, as in there's a 73% shot that they are illegal. So right now, money is betting on the fact that they are illegal. And you could argue, yeah, this is probably baked into the price of the market already. But just be ready in case there's a surprise. And though not exactly the same kind of a related note, a major development in Trump's Fed feud is set to happen next week in the Supreme Court. This whole concept of is he allowed to fire Lisa Cook? So we're going to be hearing about that next week. And obviously, this is kind of being overshadowed by the recent Powell news. Powell testimony to lawmakers is focused in high stakes DOJ probe. And obviously, Trump more so recently was not afraid to let us know his opinions on Powell. Trump attacks Powell again amid Fed independence fears. That jerk will be gone soon. I guess we'll be finding out. But just a friendly reminder, his term does end this May. So I guess that in itself is technically soon. Switching up gears a little bit, please don't forget that we are now officially in earnings season. This morning, JP Morgan and Delta both reported they did not do well. Tomorrow, Wells Fargo, City, Bank of America, Thursday, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and PNC. And also with respect to the world of AI moving on from the world of financials, TSMC is also going to be on Thursday. All right. Now, since we're talking about equities and the overall market, I just want to let you kind of know where we are at. The market closed at around six, nine, six, five, something like that. I kind of want to set up the bull in the bear case for you tomorrow. There's a lot of unknowns. PPI report, retail sales, VIX expiration, Supreme Court decision all going down tomorrow. So like I said, I hope you're watching this video in time. So let me prep you up with the bull case and the bear case. You can see there's a decent amount of positive gamma between six, seven, seven, five, all the way to 7,040 and obviously negative gamma on the two sides of that. Let me zoom in to get a little bit closer to where we are to get a reasonable case. So we're roughly where my cursor is. We have a bit of support at nine 50 technical level, psychological level, and a gamma level. And there's a big backstop at nine 30. So that's kind of the zone where, okay, I'm looking for price to settle. If we get there, obviously, if it breaks down, I'm looking at 6,900 and who knows what happens past there. If it does not hold, that would be more on the bear case on the bull case. If these levels hold, well, I'm not seeing much a little bit past 7,000. So big technical, psychological, and options level there, but more importantly, 7,10 followed by 7,25. And then we get into this mess above 7,050. So yes, it is very, very possible that we're talking above 7,000 tomorrow, but you just have to make sure that these key levels to the South side do end up holding. Now, very quickly, super important reminder. This is all the information as of market close today. Market open tomorrow morning. This structure can change. So I highly implore you to come to the live stream Monday to Friday, nine to 11, wherever you're watching this video, you can watch it live where I trade my own account. And we kind of work to figure out the puzzle of the market. So feel free to stop by. Like I said, it's free, but in that show, I will show you the renewed updated structure going right into all those reports. And on top of that, the Supreme Court decision. If you ask me, I think the bulls still have control looking at the daily chart, structure, momentum, and overall options. But I just want to be mindful of where things could get bad if they do get bad, because who knows, there's quite a bit of chaos, quite a bit of volatility, quite a bit of whipsaw. And with that in mind, please keep your risk in control. That's what I have for you today. I appreciate all the good vibes. I'll catch you in the next one.