Stock Market, Bitcoin, Gold Analysis for Week Ending 11/6/26

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Brian Shannon here from Alphatrends.net. Today is Friday the 6th of November, 2026, and we had a pretty ugly week for the market here. S&P only lost 2.5%, but the semiconductors down 11% on the week. Just brutal for growth stocks. We saw oil lose a bunch of ground here as well, and let's take a look at the charts and make some sense of it. We'll get to that in a moment. What I want to point out here first, we'll go in the order we typically do, and we will cover gold and Bitcoin towards the end as well. But the S&P 500 lost a good amount of ground. After the election, we had that gap up the next day, and it seemed as though maybe the market was going to make a turn. I had expressed a lot of caution for subscribers because we were at the declining 20- and 50-day moving average, saying, let's see if we can get a pullback, hold the 5-day moving average, and then maybe build for a break. Of course, that didn't happen. We saw a gap lower on Thursday, and we continued to bleed out. Now, this blue line here on the 30-minute time frame is the anchored VWAP from Thursday. So that means that the average participant from yesterday's open to today's close paid an average price right here of about $7.41. So the average long is down about $6. And if you look at what happened today, let's take a look at a 5-minute chart. You can see that we ran right into the prior day's volume-weighted average price. Couldn't get through that, and then after chopping back and forth above the daily VWAP, the average price for today was up here at $7.38. So the average long participant actually lost money. It's not always about the net change because in order to get that big gain, you had to have purchased right here at the close yesterday. The average price yesterday was right up in here at $7.42. So this market is not making a very impressive stand so far. I'm not really willing to call this support yet. We're probing the 200-day moving average, but I don't think this is support. You can't look at it that way yet. We had, of course, an inside day with such a big range yesterday. The only good news, I guess, is we didn't make a lower low, not yet at least. For next week, what I'd really like to see, and some people aren't going to like to hear this, is that we do undercut that 200-day moving average and undercut this low right here as well. Maybe even crash down to the year-to-date anchor. I'm not making that prediction. I don't make predictions. I make risk-based assessments of what the market is telling me. And with a declining five-day moving average, the fact that the average participant in the last two days is losing money, the average participant from today is losing money, tells me that buyers just aren't stepping up to the plate the way you would want to see them do so. So we've got to remain quite cautious. Now, the NASDAQ, kind of the same story here. We saw a little bit better bounce today, but, you know, we're still, we closed below the daily view app. We closed below the volume-weighted average price from Thursday's gap lower. We closed below the 200-day moving average. We closed below the year-to-date anchor. So, as I always say, these are levels of interest. They are not places to buy. When the 200-day moving average was hit on Monday, I guess it was, you look at it and say, was there any evidence the buyers were gaining control? And my answer is no, not with a declining five-day moving average. It was a place that it was probing that level, just like the S&P 500 is probing this area above the 200-day moving average. But it's not strong enough to call support yet because we haven't made a stand here. So, back to the NASDAQ, we did undercut this low as well. It was my hope that we would find buyers at the year-to-date anchor. But when we look at what that price level is, and you can see here that when I just drag it across from this low, because that's basically the same spot, you can look at it and say, did the buyers make a stand there? And the answer is no. We got briefly above the two-day volume-weighted average price here today. But with a declining five-day moving average, I look at the market in these bounces as day-trade candidates only. In fact, we'll talk about the semiconductors in a moment and talk about a trade I took on Wednesday. Anyways, the Russell 2000 this week did kind of what it was supposed to do. Now, it's not going to happen every time, of course. But when I was looking at the Russell this week, and by the way, if you're watching this on YouTube, there is the option now to get this analysis every single day rather than just wait for once a week. And it's only $10 a month for an end-of-day video and a mid-day video every market day. So you can stay on top of these things. And what I was saying over here is, you know, we made that higher high, and you don't trust the breakouts with a declining 50-day moving average that it was more likely to pull back. And I thought maybe it'll pull back and probe the 20-day moving average, and we could see maybe that will build. But instead, it completely failed. It broke down to these lows right in here. This is not a double bottom. What a double bottom is, is if it comes back up here and then it breaks this level here, then you call it a double bottom. And the measured move, the height of this pattern, about 25 points, is what would be your objective. So let's not call that a double bottom. This is just a level that is being probed on the way down when we look at, and we'll go back and look at the weekly charts in a moment as well. But when we look at the gap from Thursday, the gap higher, and the subsequent sell-off, we're still seeing sellers from that average price. Now, the semiconductors, this is one I was, you know, if you've been following me for, you know, for the last two or three weeks, and especially last week when we ran into the declining 20- and 50-day moving average, I looked at it and said, what I'd really like to see is a failure here. Come down and undercut this low as well as the 200-day moving average in the year-to-date anchor. Undercut that 500 and then begin a bounce. So as the market did that on Wednesday, I bought at 500 and change, and then it rallied quickly. As it rallied quickly, I decided, well, this is a day trade. So I was looking at it. So in other words, I purchased it basically right about there. As it rallied into the daily volume-weighted average price, I sold a quarter of the position. And then as it broke back down below the anchor from that low right there, this is where I sold the three-quarters of the position. So it was a decent trade. Actually, I made pretty good money because I sized way up on it, thinking that maybe this would be the turning point. Instead, I got stopped out here with a gain. So the entire thing was profitable, and I didn't have to wake up and experience this disaster Thursday morning. So let's just clear some of that up. This is the daily VWAP. This is a two-day VWAP. We're trying to stabilize. That's the best thing I can say about this market. But with it below declining five-day moving average, I am not convinced at all that this is going to be the low. When we look back to the anchor off of this low right back in here, or if we look at some of these other anchors, you can see that we still might have some further downside in here. And honestly, that's kind of what I'm hoping we see, is that we see a real panic flush, not these V bottoms that we're used to seeing, but instead to undercut the low on Monday, maybe a little more selling Tuesday morning, and then we start to see a bounce. So we can't talk about the semiconductors without talking about some of the components. Let's start with SanDisk, and I want to start with SanDisk for the simple reason that when you look at the weekly chart, or even look at the daily chart here, you can see that this anchor is from the day it spun off, February 23rd of 25. It spun off from Western Digital, and once this move began, it stayed above that volume-weighted average price every single day, except for yesterday. Yesterday, yesterday was the first close below it. Today, it closed pretty much right on that. That's the average price that the stock has traded at since it was a public entity. Now, we could look at a couple things. We could say, you know, the height of this move, we could call it, let's just call it 2,400 to be a round number, down to, and we'll call that 1,000. So that's 1,400 points. That's A to B. B to C would be here. This is 1,900. So if we take 1,400 points off that, it might indicate a move down towards 500. That doesn't seem reasonable to me, but it's worth knowing, right? So we look at it and say, we're down to the anchor from the very first trade this stock experienced as a newly minted public company after their spin-off. And today, how did it behave? Well, let's take a look at the shorter-term time frame. Are we seeing any evidence in this area that the buyers are gaining control? This morning, for a brief moment, we gapped up, and we had to chase the gap or wait for VWAP. If you bought above here, it rallied quickly, but then it failed. So your worst-case loss, I think, would have been under here, below the low of the day. Then what we saw was the average price for the day continued to tick lower. The combined average price from yesterday and today also ticked lower. So the average participant, since this gap down, has paid a price of about 860. Here we are at 840. So they're down about 20 points. That's not the way that we want to see a bottom carved out. What do we want to see in here? Let's sketch it out as I always do. People say, thanks for the review. This isn't a review. This is looking forward to say what's most likely next week. Let's scenario map. Let's map out some scenarios of what's possible. Let's say we get a little bit of a bounce on Monday, and then it sells off again. We see a flush. And then we see something like this on Tuesday. And then what happens? This is, you know, the five-day moving average will be averaging this out Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. So maybe by Wednesday, midday, we start to see this. Well, the five-day moving average will still be declining. But I would think that it's likely that you could get involved because on Thursday, the five-day moving average will be flat to advancing. And this might be an important low for the stock. I would prefer, like I said, to see an undercut. Just a real next little shakeout because, you know, there can't be much confidence from the people who've bought in the last two days when their average price is $20 higher. So maybe flush them out and then we get the quick turnaround. And if we get a quick turnaround, keep in mind, I'm not looking at this as an investment opportunity. I'm looking at it as I look at all stocks as a swing trader. As a swing trader, I don't have to look at, hey, those were record earnings over here and over here and be disappointed constantly. As a swing trader, I'm happy to make a little piece here, a little piece here, a little piece here. And, you know, maybe a little piece on the, you know, a pretty decent trade. So what I would be looking for is be aware of the direction of the five-day moving average. Be aware of the anchor off of this move right here. That might end up being a place where supply is found. So let's say you buy it at $8.85, $8.90. Maybe it runs to $1,000 quickly. It doesn't mean sell there, but it's a level of interest where you might see some supply released. You know, you could look at this at Micron the same way. We could look at, you know, all of these stocks the same way. There's your average price for Micron. So when you look at Intel, Intel was the big sell-off last week, if you recall. And the dip buyers were in here trying to find the bottom. And guess what? You know, everyone knew this was the biggest sell-off since 1974. So it was down too much. You know, it closed the gap. It has to be a buy and all the things that amateurs, and no offense to anyone here if that's the way you thought, but that's the way amateurs have been taught to think, is that it's a dip. It's not a dip. It's a broken stock. It's below declining 20- and 50-day moving average. It's going to take all of these stocks time to heal. It doesn't mean you might not be able to find a decent bounce in here next week. Maybe it does this on Monday, suckers people in as it gets above the five-day moving average, but the five will be declining. And then if it does something like this, well, then maybe it can get going buying here with a stop under here, sell a quarter to the position. It pulls back and either fails, you get out of the rest, or it pulls back, makes a higher low. Raise your stop up under here. Keep raising your stop until the stock tells you. Maybe it's going to run all the way back up to the declining 20-day moving average. Let the market tell you how long to hold these stocks. I've spent enough time on the semiconductors. Bottom line is they don't look like a buy to me yet. The biotechs have also failed near that 50-day moving average. This is something I mentioned to subscribers yesterday is that, yeah, we're getting a little bit of a bounce, but we still have a declining five-day moving average. We have a declining 50-day moving average. What I think would be a really good scenario to see here, and you can see I've sketched this and this being a shoulder, this being a head, and this being a shoulder. Well, this is such an obvious pattern that what I think is likely to happen is that it comes down, breaks the neckline in here, and then everyone who's read a technical analysis book about pattern says, hey, it made a big top, it made a head and shoulders pattern, and guess what? Typically, you'll see a little flush, and then it'll either continue lower, least likely, or it comes back up, traps those short sellers, steals the stops from everyone who has their stop underneath this big, obvious level, and then we see a reversal back higher. That's the way it typically works with a head and shoulders top in the major indices. It doesn't mean it happens all the time, so take it seriously if it breaks down, but if it breaks down and then comes back up like this, we'll know that that was a trap, and it's more likely to then continue back higher. Financial stocks, these guys broke the resistance at this level to a new all-time high, and they came tumbling back down to reality here. So this has been a super strong group up until the last two days. If you bought in the last two days, you lost 5%, not a big move from 60 down to 57, but if you're one of the people who bought on the open on Thursday, that kind of sucked to be down 5% in just a couple of days. Bonds, they continue to be resilient here, and of course that means the bond yields did in fact top out at that 5317 area we were looking for based on a couple weeks ago, months ago now, that break of the 22-year high, and then we got the Economist headlines, of course. Not headline, but the Economist magazine cover. The mags, they broke down too. Where did they break down? Right at the conjunction of the declining 20- and 50-day moving average. It's at the 200-day and the year-to-date anchor. I don't see any evidence the buyers are gaining control in here. When you look at the components, it's not really a pretty picture either. I'm not going to go through them one by one because this video is already 15 minutes long. We did talk about SpaceX, and it did exactly what it was supposed to do. It hit that measured move objective to the downside of 130. In fact, it crumbled below that. I don't think it's a buy. It's still below the offering price of 135. It's below the anchor from the IPO. That's that orange line on the daily. It's below the anchor from the lowest price it's ever traded. It's below declining 20-day moving average. It's below declining 50-day moving average. It's below declining 5-day moving average. So leave this stock alone. You don't have to own it just because everyone talks about it. Let's do this. Let's take a quick look at some crypto. We'll start out here on the weekly chart of Bitcoin just because I have that up. And this is approximately the 50-day moving average. It is actually a 7-week moving average. 7 times 7 is 47. So that's as close as you're going to get to a 50-day moving average using a weekly chart. 7 days in the week, 7 weeks. That's the average of the last 49 days. So when you look at the 50-day moving average here on the daily time frame, what do you see is that that 50-day moving average has flattened out and is starting to decline a little bit. Next week, actually over the weekend, that 50-day moving average will start to decline because this is where we were 50 days ago. So as we're down here and this data is average with this day, that 50-day moving average is going to start to come down at a greater rate of descent. The good-ish news is that we're at this moving average, and this is approximately the 200-day moving average. On crypto, you look at it and you say 200 divided by 7 is, what is that? So it's 28 and a half. I've chosen to use a 28-week moving average to approximate this right here of the 200-day moving average. So maybe that holds it up. Maybe it doesn't. We'll see. But what I like is that this is also the level I've been looking for it to come down to because it is the anchor off of this low right here, the year-to-date low, the 2026 low. So just to refresh your memory, we spoke about this anchor from the 2022 low as the place where the low for the year was made, and that has held. Now, this is the anchor from that point. So this price has memory, and I'd like to see that hold in this general area. So going back to the other chart, this is the level that I'm hoping will hold for Bitcoin. It doesn't mean I'm going to be a buyer here. I'm not going to be a buyer. I want to see it build in here, and it might take a couple weeks to do something like this. And then we get that 50-day moving average kind of flattened out, and then the 20-day moving average flattens out. We're back above the 50, and then we can start talking about the next upward move. For now, we're still in profit-taking mode from this most recent rally, and it's simply not ready to make a sustained move higher. We have over here on the daily chart, we have a very clear pattern here, and that pattern is the simplest pattern you can see, which is lower highs and lower lows. Now we're coming into a zone of potential support. Let's wait for evidence to see. Gold got some interest this week, and I was asked about that, and in fact, I spoke about it because we were talking last week as well about the anchor off of this low, then the handoff, and then this handoff, and that the anchored volume-weighted average price from this level, so this anchor had been support, and we spoke about the more time support is tested and the fact that we had the declining 20, that red 20-day moving average bearing down on it. The 20 was below the 50, which was declining, the 50 was below the 200, which was declining. We looked for it to break down here. It came pretty damn close, and it bounced. Now people are asking me, am I bullish on gold? No, I'm not bullish on gold. We have a declining 20, 50, and 200-day moving average. Maybe it's going to start to turn neutral, so this is what I sketched in. I thought, well, if we take a look at the anchor off of this low right here, that's what this green line is on this 4-hour chart on the right, that maybe we pull back into there, and then if it rallies up in here, then it maybe starts to turn a little bit more neutral, and who knows? Maybe it rallies up to here, and then starts to turn sideways more, but it's going to take a lot of time, I think. If they didn't scare you out of gold, they're most likely going to wear you out of gold because I don't think it's just going to completely turn around. It's possible, but I always say, what's most probable, not what's possible? That's possible, and that's what a lot of people get blinded by. I want to look at it more realistically based on the way that stocks and commodities also actually move, and look at it and say, what's the most likely scenario? Anyways, I think I've gone on long enough. I hope that you didn't have such a bad week that was possible, that I think a lot of people did have a bad week, and that's why I'm a trader. That's why it's my time frame. Oh, I did say I was going to go back to something else, and that was this. All week we heard, after the midterms, I think it's 19 out of the last 19 midterms, after the midterms, regardless of who won, Republicans, Democrats, it didn't matter, that one year later, the market was up 100% of the time and that's great. That gives you a good comfort level as an investor, but guess what? For a trader, it's absolutely useless. It's useless because the average peak to trough in the 12 months after the midterm election is 11.6%. So on average, yeah, we finished the year higher, but we also see at least a 10% pullback. And in fact, 1986 was the worst, or 1987 rather, with the crash. Even that year, it finished positive, or the 12 months after, but the fact is, you know, those are what I consider for me and my timeframe as a swing trader, useless back of the baseball card statistics, just like seasonality. It's good to know. It's nice to know, but you've got to look at price. Price is only thing that matters. price pays.