Stock Market & Crypto Analysis for Week Ending 8/7/26

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: hey buddy brian shannon here from alphatrends.net it's saturday the 8th of august and markets had a good week the nasdaq up five percent semis led the way of course up close to eight percent there and biotechs had a great week uh the only thing that really lost ground was energy oil was off seven and a half percent and energy stocks lost ground but as i've been saying it's you know i think it's impossible to trade uh unless you're day trading uh oil during a period of war let's take a look at these charts and make some sense of it the s p 500 as we know last week we had a successful test of the five-day moving average and the leopold anchor low and that's where it presented a perfect opportunity to buy and now we have this s p 500 up at new all-time highs so it's a little bit stretched here and started to consolidate towards the end of the week a little bit sideways through time what would really be nice to see uh and hopefully this is what we get would be that we start to shake out a little bit come back down test that leo anchor low and that is likely to be successfully tested so i would be looking for pullbacks into that zone and then looking to buy a bounce from there if you're looking for more long exposure the key is to buy a bounce from there and then set your stop below the low not to just blindly buy into it that might end up working but if it just continues to drive lower for whatever reason you don't want to have a position you want to have confirmation that the buyers have regained control and then a logical place below that higher low to set your stop but otherwise you know looking at this s p 500 this has been a correction through time here over the last two months as the market has basically done nothing but frustrate a lot of people and now again we're at an all-time high same is true for the nasa not the all-time high but the same is true in that we broke this downtrend line the anchor from the leo low in the five-day moving average last week that was the perfect pullback i put that on twitter and that was the place where the buyers regain control so what we want to see here we're right at that 50-day moving average and ideally we kind of consolidate a little bit let that you know 20 come back up and the perfect way for it to do that on an intraday basis would be for a couple days pull back down towards the anchor from the uh i'm calling it the leo low and that would be you know if we were to break below 700 that would be best a shake up below there maybe down towards 695 693 and then again by strength as it rallies away from that level uh but otherwise you just can't argue with the strength of this market the russell 2000 also broke higher here this week out of this frustrating little downward channel that it's been in for the last uh five or six weeks and this market is also bullish we have a rising five-day moving average so it's innocent until proven guilty on an intermediate term time frame for all these markets the ideal scenario is we test that anchor from the recent uh washout low semiconductors same story we saw that these guys came down to the five-day moving average on that gap lower a little shakeout below that anchor and now next week uh be aware that we're below the 50-day moving average and has a slight downward trajectory to it and this is the data that we'll be averaging out of that 50-day moving average next week so maybe we can do this and then on the daily time frame come down test that 20-day moving average get cradled by it and then we would see that this would end up being a shoulder a head and a shoulder and it's not the pattern of the head and shoulders that we're interested in what we're interested in is that you know that's what most people focus on is the pattern but what we're most interested in is the fact that we have this little band of you know potential resistance right now and maybe it pushes up through it then we start our pullback and what that serves is to create a higher low to trade against that might be if we were to do this this could create a higher low that we would then see hold uh while this uh semiconductor group could go to a new all-time high amd had a little bit of weakness uh here we've you know kind of stuck below that level but probably more neutral than anything i i think it's just kind of foolish to short these mega caps uh intel getting a little bit better nvidia had a great week broke out past here so if it can pull back down in towards this 210-ish zone that would be good for the stock micron is consolidating here and turning sideways it got back above that level that we said you know it needs to get back above this to become neutral in the intermediate term now we're stuck at that 20 with a declining 50 so it's likely still going to take a little bit of time to rebuild in here but it's definitely uh behaving a lot better and looks like the worst is behind it since the uh gap from that earnings report and be aware that uh the anchor from the earnings report is right up here near that 50-day moving average up near about 9 50 9 60 or so biotex is mentioned they uh were just kind of straight up this week um and we saw that uh we had a little bit of uh pullback in higher lows so you know this is your most recent relevant higher low uh if it makes a higher high then this becomes your most recent relevant higher low in terms of managing risk i thought it was interesting also to see that um you know spacex had a big day on friday up 15 and if you go back to what the discussion has been the last several weeks is well then august 6th is when all this uh these shares become unlocked and that the stock will get hit hard well as i pointed out here on the 24th of july the stock is optionable a great hedge for insiders would have been to buy puts or to get long spcg now some people said well that's illegal well a lot of things in the market are illegal but people seem to still tend to do them um anyways it probably rallies after the lockups open up and that's exactly what happened here a lot of people are looking at this and saying you know this is the share lockup unlock schedule and you can see here that all these shares became available here 20 of them were unlocked and that goes out to december uh uh or december of this year that we can continue to see more shares will be unlocked and it's going to have a negative effect on the price of the stock eventually but in the words of linda rashke the markets will do the most obvious thing in the least obvious way as it becomes very obvious to everyone oh all these shares are going to come available people amateurs on the sidelines start to short people who don't typically short look at it and think that that's easy money and guess what wall street has laid the trap for you then you get squeezed and that's just the way it goes i wouldn't be surprised to see spacex continue on this leg higher up towards the anchor from the ipo that puts it around 150 ish next week so be aware that uh right now the buyers are in control it's back above a rising 5d moving average i have no intent of trading the stock maybe for a day trade if i get bored but then i probably shouldn't be trading if i'm that bored so um you know best to just probably leave that one alone bonds we saw an undercut of the prior low of course that began last week on friday we had really large volume in here some of the largest volume we've seen in close to six months that probably marks a near turn turning point back up to the upside here with a stop below here i wouldn't trade it i mean it's a counter trend bounce we've got a declining 20 and 50 day moving average in 200 i'm simply pointing out money flows suggest that it's likely to rally up here doesn't mean you have to trade it just because you see it happening let's take a look uh quickly at crypto um you know the interesting one here right now is solana uh solana is getting a little bit of action here this saturday morning off the anchor from the year to date low we saw that little undercut in here and i wouldn't be surprised to see it continue to rally up towards that 82 83 level which is the anchor off of the uh low that we saw earlier in the year um back in february that low uh but going back to bitcoin it's just grinding higher here the last couple days really nothing special going on in here was still below this prior band of support and more important i think is the anchor off of this may high which was that that peak right here that we had observed prior to it happening so it's really more neutral than anything uh i would say don't you know waste much time uh on crypto this week uh it things can change of course but right now that's the way it looks to me I hope you had a good week and that'll do it for now.