Stock Market & Crypto Analysis for Week Ending 7/2/26

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Brian Shannon from alphatrends.net. Today is Friday, July 2nd, 2026, and we do have the market close tomorrow and a three-day weekend, 250th birthday of the United States of America. So let's take a look at these numbers and make some sense of it. At first blush, it doesn't really look too bad, although today the semiconductors were down 4.5%, the NASDAQ, because of that, were down 1.75%, but the rest of the market was pretty quiet here. In fact, those biotechs, which have been red hot, continue to add to their gains. So again, let's take a look at these charts. We have the S&P 500, which is still holding above the rising 50-day moving average. Next week, that 20-day moving average will start to rise again. So that's actually a positive, and we've been closing above it. So it's possible we do something like this. Now, I was talking about the possibility that this is a cup and handle, and then maybe it's an ascending triangle. It doesn't matter what you call it. It's still just a consolidation within a range, and did this really occur? I guess it did. There were some trades there, but that was that rebalancing last week. Anyways, the point is we're still kind of building some energy within a tightening range, and no damage has been done to the S&P 500. Taking a look at the NASDAQ, has any damage been done here? We've got that same triangle pattern. So let me just erase that stuff, and you can see we're closing on the 50-day moving average. The only thing concerning about that is, like any level of support, the more times it's tested, the more likely it is to fail. However, it is rising. The 200-day moving average is also rising. The 20-day moving average will flatten out if we hold in this area next week, because this is where we were 20 days ago, and we start to average this information out. Anyways, we've got, again, that same triangle pattern. The way a triangle pattern is resolved in the textbook is that it's much more likely that it continues in the direction of the primary trend. And of course, let's consult that weekly time frame in case there's any lack of memory of this. We're in a primary uptrend. We are maybe extended, but the market for the last month has been digesting gains, first through price, now through time, as it just constricts in here. So what would concern me about the NASDAQ is if we did something like this. Maybe it rallies up a little bit on Monday and then does this and breaks down. If it were to break down, then I think you're likely to see a high likelihood that you're going to see a test of the anchor off of the year-to-date low. That would bring this market down to 680. It would undercut that level and provide maybe the reason for a reset. As mentioned, the semiconductors were the bigger problematic group, and that spilled over just to tech in general. A lot of, you know, if you look at, for instance, MTUM is the momentum index, and that was down 3.5% today. Looking at, let's just go back to semiconductors, actually, because the semiconductors, you know, they sold off. And for the week, as I mentioned, they were only down 3, what was it, for the week, the semiconductors were down 3.1%. Now, month to date, they're down 9.7%. So that is, of course, you know, a lot of damage in two days, being that this is the new month, we gapped lower and have continued down since then, punishing anyone who buys the dip. And you know my feelings about buying dips below declining five-day moving average. Now we've got the 20-day moving average rolling over. We're about to test the 50. A couple scenarios would be maybe we come and undercut this low right here. That would also be an undercut of the anchor from the year-to-date low. If it were to do that sometime next week, then I think you would see a pretty good bounce in this group. So, you know, a lot of people will be looking for the 50-day moving average to act as support. Let's just take a look at this together. You can see in the upper left corner, 579.50 is where the 50-day moving average closed today. That I would never, you know, suggest that anyone puts a bid in at that level. It just doesn't make sense. We want to look for evidence that maybe it comes down to, you know, that level and even undercuts it and then starts to turn sideways. And looking at the five-day moving average, it might be late, you would think. But here, look at where it got back above that flat to rising five-day moving average. You could say the same thing here. And the thing is, you've got to use your risk management skills and getting stopped out. Micron, of course, is the big component that has been really kind of problematic in terms of its behavior since the earnings report. They gapped up on this day right here, went to an all-time high, and we've seen a lot of volatility in here. Now we've got the measured move from this level. We call it 12.50 down to 10.25, so 225 points. Subtract that from, let's just call it 65, 11.65. We're right down into that zone, and that's the anchor off of this peak. But again, I'd love to see a deeper reset down in here. To undercut the lows from last month would really scare a lot of people out of their stock, bring in a much stronger group of holders. Because as I mentioned in Wednesday, I'm sorry, Tuesday's Trader TV video, people didn't like the fact that I was quoting George Soros. But the fact is, he's the guy that I learned this from, is that volatility peaks at turning points and diminishes with the trend. So regardless of who said it and what you're feeling about that person is, recognize the market behavior, because that's what we see here. We see stocks like, you know, leading stocks like Sandisk down 14% today. Now here's the 50-day moving average just below. What if we were to come down and test the anchor off the April low? That would still bring us down to 1,400-ish. That's still another, what is that, 15% or so lower. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but just don't think it can't happen. What's more likely, maybe we undercut that low and start to bounce. Monday, you know, what we haven't seen in a long time. This used to happen 10, 15 years ago all the time. We would see it a week Friday. Monday, it would sell off and then maybe bounce a little bit. So maybe it does something like this on Monday. Tuesday, then it would undercut that low briefly on the open and then rally. That's what I'm hoping we see. Like I said, we haven't seen it in a long time. I think the odds of that are pretty long, but a long shot that is, but you know, always have scenarios of what you think is possible to happen. Biotechs continue to be the star. As I've been pointing out to subscribers, when they make a new high, you go back and look at the most recent relevant high or low and raise your stop up underneath that. And that's where the new stop should be for XBI. It made the higher high. So with this as the most recent relevant high or low, if it breaks that, well, then the five day moving average trend is over. It doesn't mean the trend is over. It means the five day moving average trend is over. If you look at it on a 10 day moving average, you would have your stop under, under this higher low. If you were looking at the 20 day moving average, you would have your stop under here. I like to say you have a third of your position, maybe with the five day, a third with the 10 day and the third with the 20 day. That way, if it just, you know, gets knocked down to that 20 day moving average, you've taken some off up in here. Maybe you take some off up in there. It comes down to the 20 reestablishes support, buy it all back right there. Anyways, let's take a look at the, the Dow was at an all time high today. The Dow is 30 stocks, but it's being led by strength in the financials. Financials are closing in, excuse me, on an all time high here. Let's take a look at the weekly chart. We have, what was the close this week right here? Let's take a look together. The close that week was 5573. So we didn't close at a new high for the week, but that looks imminent. So we've seen that, uh, this, this group, uh, was able to use this cup and handle to break past the resistance that was prior support and the 200 day moving average. We spoke about that at length. We spoke about its first objective being up in here. It came back down and consolidated in there. Now the buyers are back in control again. So financials, the buyers are in control. How about the bonds? Well, the bonds got hit right where they were supposed to go back and look at what we said last week. We're in a potential supply zone. We've got a declining 200 day moving average. They pulled back so far right to where they're supposed to, if they're going to find, if they're going to find support and bounce, this is the place for it, but there is no evidence of it. This is a level of interest. I wouldn't tell you to buy bonds here, not with a declining five day moving average. Also, let's take a quick look at Bitcoin because Bitcoin, I mentioned this to subscribers yesterday. I said, this looks like the place for a bottom fish, uh, um, entry. I also was very clear. It's not a buy that I was going to make. I just don't want to buy it because it's in a downtrend, but there are compelling reasons. If you look at the, uh, let's turn this into a weekly chart here. And what we'll see is a couple of things. The anchor off of the low from 2022 is right here. And we touch that. Now we also have, if you take a Fibonacci off the low of that to this high, you can see it's pretty much an exact 61.82% retracement. So does that mean the low is in for Bitcoin? I don't know. I don't call lows. I think there's a tradable bounce here and that's about it. I wouldn't chase it at this point because when you look at the four hour chart, you can see we're hanging right at the most recent, the anchor from the most recent low and that most recent little lower high. So if you're looking to buy here, then the more reasonable way to do it is to look for it, to pull back down to 60 by strength after that, and then set your stop underneath, whatever a higher low might be in there. Ethereum is also in a important level. When we look at that weekly chart, uh, that's, I meant to click this one to weekly. So let's just not look at that part, but this is the anchored volume weighted average price. since the inception of, uh, Ethereum. So we've seen it in the past act as resistance on a couple of occasions here and here, and then support here and here. We came close to touching it and we came very close to touching it again. If you're looking to buy longer term, this is probably the place to buy some. I'm not an investor in these things. I, you know, there, we won't go into the reasons for that, but, uh, you know, they're, they're tradable candidates. We spoke last week about the, um, the, uh, the outperformance, the relative strength that is in Solana. Solana, be careful. It's shown its relative strength, but now it's up to the anchor off the, uh, what was the prior year to date low. So in, we're in this zone where it's likely to see some supply. So in here, maybe it pulls back and then if it gets back above here, then it becomes more neutral. Let's get back to the stocks because they're more interesting than this stuff. Uh, mags. We saw that last week they came right down to the, uh, uh, anchor from the, uh, Tara flows right here. And that's where we found buyers. We're getting a bounce. We still have a declining 20. We'd still have a declining 50 day moving average. So to me, it's just a bounce. If you feel FOMO in this and you're looking to buy, wait for something like this to happen. Wait for it to pull back and do something like this. Maybe next week, if it could kind of create a shoulder here, a head here and a shoulder, look for it to pull back down into that 64 ish, 64 50, and then buy as it starts turning up over here with a stop under there. Again, it's not something I'm going to do because I don't want to buy something with a declining 50 day moving average. I'm saying, if that's your game, that's the way to do it. It doesn't matter what I do with my money for your account. It shouldn't people always say, well, what are you doing, Brian? That doesn't affect what you do. Let's take a look at SpaceX. Now, a lot of people, I'd pointed this out that we had actually seen a test of the anchor from the IPO in the pre-market to, I guess that was on Tuesday and it pretty much nailed that. So we haven't done it in the regular hours, but this is the anchored volume weighted average price here from the IPO. And that level is up at about 175 ish. The anchor from the all time high is at about 179. So that's likely a zone of supply. If we get a bounce next week, a lot of people are thinking that they can make easy money because of an index edition. And they told me that actually on this day, the day I warned, be careful about upside, you know, being limited in here, but you know, nobody knows what's going to happen with an index edition. What I would be more concerned about is if it does run up on the index edition, what happens after that? Then you've got the supply, you know, the demand likely satisfied at that point. And then who's going to buy after that would be the question. I, again, I, I'm going to do what I've said I've been doing right from the start is just listen to price action on SpaceX because nobody's gotten it right so far. Of course, somebody's going to say, I did, Brian, I did. Oh, good. You know, that's great. Um, anyways, you know, stocks like meta, they get a one day bounce in a downtrend, declining 50 day moving average, declining 200 day moving average. Those are typically going to be sold into Microsoft is getting a bounce in here as well. I would be aware of this zone in here at about four Oh five. It's a nice bounce. No doubt about it. Uh, it undercut that prior low. Like we talk about often that we look for that and then a bounce, but be, be careful. Uh, if you're chasing this thing, if you're going to see it, let's say it rallies up, uh, beyond this little, uh, peak right here, which is pretty much in that same zone. If it rallies up like this, I would start to set a super, uh, tight stop on any purchases you've might've made over the last week because it's more likely to do this and then come back down and then maybe it makes a higher low in here. Uh, but the odds are against that with a declining 50 at 200 and a declining 50 day moving average, uh, NVIDIA continues to be a nothing stock here, a stock that has recently been making a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, a complete waste of time. Really? Um, Google, if you look at that, it's getting a bounce. It's got this pattern here, still two of lower highs and lower lows. I wouldn't buy a higher high above here because it's not about buying higher highs. It's about buying low risk, higher highs. So what that might happen is let's say if it ran up to their created a higher low, then I would want to be a buyer over here. In fact, I would actually want to be a buyer over in this level. Um, what else was I going to talk about real quick? Um, we've spoken about those. So I guess that's it. Everybody, uh, have a good long weekend.