Stock Market, Bitcoin, Gold Analysis for Week Ending 10/30/26

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: hey everybody it's brian shannon from alphatrends.net today is saturday the uh it's halloween the 31st of october uh i hope you had a good week in the market not likely if you were holding things uh long but uh you know for the week the semis were only down 0.9 percent nine nine basis points but on friday we were down 6.2 it seems kind of crazy to think that we were only down uh you know nine basis points for the week but it was a bloodbath so let's forget about this chart for a moment and take a look at uh what really matters here um let's start with the semiconductors because here's where we closed last friday right here and you can see we closed right here on this friday just down a very small amount but the important thing is we failed right where it was supposed to right in the zone it was supposed to and that is up at the declining 20 and 50 day moving average the anchor off of the october high and the anchor off of the all-time high here so let me just back up a moment i i always forget to bring up trading view so i'm going to bring it up right now and we'll talk uh well i guess since i have gold on the screen we'll talk about that if you recall last week what i was talking about was that this market is likely to drop down to the next level down in here and i said 3900 it's actually 3865 ish and you know a lot of people ask me well what's the exact number of that vwap it doesn't always matter but sometimes it is the precise level where you will see movement in other words we had seen prior support with this anchor and this week it became the perfect level of resistance and we sold off strong just the way it was supposed to because we're below declining 2050 and 200 day moving average in other words this this is you know gold is in a bear market and we were talking about the handoff technique from this low so what we want to look at now in terms of gold and what i think is likely and it's never meant of course as a prediction some people say oh you were wrong you called this or that no this is not the way it goes we talk about scenarios so what's most likely i think for uh gold is that we kind of maybe undercut this a little bit then we see a bounce that either makes a lower high if it makes a lower high then you want to be a short seller right here if instead it rallies back up here and then you know bearish bets are off it becomes more neutral but for now you have to look at it and assume the worst that it's guilty to proven innocent it got sold off pretty hard so it's likely to see a bounce maybe it takes another day or two on the downside but then it begins to bounce but that's the scenario we're in bitcoin what i and i got long bitcoin this week and took a quick paper cut loss i got long over i think in here i actually don't remember and then i sold 78 of it right here and i got aggressively wrong long and wrong that's funny um but then i sold the rest of it right here so it was a paper cut loss and good thing because that move has failed so far at least what we spoke about as a potential scenario for bitcoin was that it would undercut this low right here and that is the anchor from this handoff off of the year to date low and if it could rally up in here then i will become bullish again but while it's below that 79 500 i'm looking at it as guilty to a proven innocent i want nothing to do with it i have 100 cash in my bitcoin account okay let's get back to the more interesting stuff that is equities because i'm an equity swing trader and that's what we talk about here so what we saw this week was the anchor off of the summer low was broken and broken hard we've been talking about how we've been stuck in this little and we still really are in that uh you know sideways uh you know band here uh between 750 basically and 780. that has been where we've been stuck for the last couple of months but we broke hard here after earnings and you know coming into the week we had a lot of uh catalysts we had the fed we had the pce but what i was telling subscribers is the most important thing was going to be earnings and we saw so many earnings related disasters we'll talk about those here shortly but the the spy you know sold off of course it got a little bit of a bounce here in you know at the end of the day and you know my definition of a little bit of a bounce versus what you might think is a great day trade which could be a great day day trade five points right there in the close five and a half points but realistically we're below declining five-day moving average we're below declining 20 and 50-day moving average so the next level of interest where we might be able to make a turn for a bounce at least we would i would initially look at it as a bounce scenario is that we undercut this anchor or this low rather from september we undercut that and come down to the next important anchored volume weighted average price and if you recall this was the original ceasefire that kicked off the the this rally in april so this was the original so-called ceasefire of course we know that's a joke the next level of interest below that comes down at the anchor from the year-to-date low so if it comes down to the anchor from the ceasefire and that's our first level of interest that we look to say are the buyers actually showing any evidence they're gaining control and i say this all the time here's what i look for in in you know one i don't ever want to buy for a day trade i don't want to buy something below a daily volume weighted average price for a swing trade i don't want to buy something below a declining five-day moving average so maybe we see that undercut it rallies up quickly that gets people sucked in it rallies to the five-day moving average then it starts to stabilize the five-day moving average flattens out and i want to see a tight range here i don't want to buy it let's say it goes above let's say the five-day moving average was even flat right there it's not simply buying above a flat five-day moving average it's about how did it get there if it rallies from 750 to 765 i'm not going to chase that breakout that's that's just asking for trouble you have to ask how it got there how much energy was expended so i'd love to see it rally up and then pull back down but for now this market in my book is guilty until proven innocent it's going to take a lot to turn this market around i think it doesn't mean i'm not open-minded to it but i look at and say we're in a bearish environment for this market call it a bear market call it a bull market call it a cyclical secular whatever name label you want to put on it the average stock is having more uh trouble going higher than going lower so maybe we see an undercut and then we bounce all the way let's say even up to let's say 758 that would be a nice trade that would be one move the next move might end up being it rallies up into that zone and then find supply and then this is your next excellent short sale candidate again i'm not either this is stuff i update every single day the the chess pieces on the board move every day that's why if you're looking at this once a week when i do these videos you get an idea of what's going on but for 10 bucks a month on youtube 10 bucks a month on twitter i do this every single day for subscribers um nasdaq failed below this prior low right here you did so on a gap and it came down through the anchor from the year to date low so you look at that and say you know we look at one where it rallied up to okay so we saw a bounce early in the week and it came up to where it was supposed to the 50-day moving average the declining 20-day moving average uh i don't know why i have that anchor there truthfully so let's just get rid of that um that is really not significant because it wasn't anchored to a significant point um what i'm looking for now in the in the nasdaq maybe we start to get a bounce on monday just because we were down so much the last two days but the preferred scenario and i look at it as the preferred scenario we spoke about this previously is that we fail or maybe we catch a little bit of a bounce at the 200-day moving average it rallies up to the anchor from the low and then we come down and down into the the year-to-date anchor and undercut this low slightly look we're showing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows we're in a downtrend in the nasdaq yes we have a rising 200-day moving average but that doesn't help for swing trades it's just a simple level of interest that says maybe this is the zone we get a little bit of a bounce in but i'm not going to bet aggressively on the long side if i bet on the long side it will start as a day trade above even if we're below declining five-day moving average i will day trade if we are above let's say let's say the market this is the close today let's say it gaps down on monday it does a little bit of this and then it gets back above the daily volume weighted average price well for a day trade yeah i'll buy here with a stop under there even if the five-day moving average is up at this level if it rallies up to the five you better believe i'm going to be selling some so it's not just you know again people look at what i say you want to buy above a flat to rising five-day moving average yes for a swing trade but if we're below a declining 20 and 50-day moving average that means you want to trade less share size because you don't expect it to get through a key level like like this level in here and we saw that perfectly with the russell 2000. the russell 2000 uh you had a great rally and it was showing a beautiful little pattern here of higher highs and higher lows this is where i told subscribers if it gets below there you want to at least take some off and the rest probably under here because these are your higher lows and we wanted to keep it really tight because we were at the declining 50-day moving average and the anchor off of that year-to-date high so it's supposed to fail there in a downtrend yeah this was a nice little rally for you know two weeks that's great now that segment of the move is over and we have to ask what's next maybe monday we see an inside day maybe it does this and maybe it does something like that or what i think is more likely is maybe it does some of this and then starts to come back down because we're in a bearish environment so we want to put an anchor off of this low and lo and behold what do you know that's exactly the level we tagged friday afternoon before it experienced a slight bounce and and again you can't say that that's support because it's probing that as support and fun monday we get trapped below the five and it does this then i think it's highly likely we come down to and through the year to date anchor and probably undercut this level um so you you can see that i'm not bullish this market but i'm willing to change my opinion and right now with the semiconductors we got the same thing we saw pretty much in the russell 2000 is that we saw a really nice bounce here this week and that was perfectly tradable we saw the higher highs and higher lows and day after day for subscribers i said listen we're in this zone you want to take some off in here you want to raise your stop you want to be out yes we're above the five day moving average but at the declining 20 and 50 day moving average it's more likely to fail and because of the catalyst you know you have to look at as okay we had earnings from intel which arguably were the main catalyst that got these uh markets selling off on friday so we knew that was coming and you had to look at it and say what was the most likely scenario when we saw all week that you know google marvell uh service now uh reddit hewlett-packard roblox hood you know coinbase circle they all had really negative reactions to earnings so we look at those and say you know what's most likely for for for a stock like intel it wasn't most likely it was going to come down this much my thought was i'd love to see intel come down undercut the year-to-date anchor and the 200-day moving average flush down under here underneath the low from the summer and then begin to rally that was my preferred scenario but guess what my preferred scenario the market doesn't care about my preferred scenario but the thing is i'm always thinking ahead and trying to explain ahead this isn't simply a recap of what happened last week it's looking forward and saying here's what i would like to see happen if this happens then i would start to look for a bounce above here up towards this level that didn't happen so back to the drawing board you can't get married to something you you know had at the beginning of the week that has been invalidated we cut below the anchor from what i think this well i'm not certain but i think this is when the u.s government decided to take a position in it so on average the average participant is in a losing position since the government bought doesn't mean the people down here are losing of course but i'm saying on average so we look at and say well what's the next potential level uh of interest we look at a weekly chart and say okay what was the most important low well pretty much right there and we undercut that so we'll go back to this level maybe it goes back to there i don't know it's guilty to proven innocent i'm not looking to be a buyer of intel let let the institutions do the dirty work of putting hundreds of millions of dollars into finding support and creating support and unless you're a day trader again so you've got to remember i talk about different time frames i don't like to talk about day trading i'll do day i will day trade of course because i have that skill after doing this for 35 years but what i'm most interested in guiding subscribers and people who listen to this video about are the intermediate term time frame so maybe intel does this and and great if you're long just be sure to protect your profits because it's more likely that it'll do this and come back down what did we see with uh brazil we saw you know brazil got smacked down 25 percent uh monday morning and what's the average price from the participant in there the average participant is losing money as it broke below this anchor the buyers the dip buyers lost control the sellers gained control that was the average the volume weighted average price from that event doesn't mean they're going to maintain control maybe we see something like this and ewz which i don't trade because it you know has to gap pretty much every day does something like this and great that would be the place to be a bounce buyer yeah right here hindsight says it worked but it could have continued lower have a strategy have a plan know where your risk is in this this scenario i would know that my risk is underneath this low right in here uh right here but if i buy at this point i really don't know where my stop is maybe you're just going to make something up and say risk three percent five percent in this case it worked most of the time it does not work so let's get back to equities semiconductors as mentioned i'd love to see them undercut that low from this summer uh in in undercut the round number of 500 then i will be looking for a bounce it will start most likely as a day trade and then that day trade if i you know let's say i buy it you know let's say i buy it right here and if that day trade starts to work well then let's say we get up to the two-day vwap i will sell some there if it pulls back like this and then fails below the daily vwap well then it was a day trade if instead it holds reclaims the two-day vwap then maybe it's going to head up to the next level of interest and what is that level of interest i'll know on tuesday i'll know on wednesday and i will update subscribers to that um biotechs they uh you know they were positive this week they are showing a pattern of higher highs and higher lows the problem is we still have a declining 50-day moving average so even if you're trading this long my rules of engagement say because we have a declining 50-day moving average i'm not going to trade a full-size risk unit it's okay to trade these things and we pulled back right to the advancing five-day moving average so that's good maybe we can rebuild in here and and continue to move higher the financials did that the financials stalled out at the declining five-day moving average a 50-day moving average rather and then they bounced on thursday but gave it all back on friday so we're in a period of volatility and guess what cash is a position and should be a position for most people if you were in some of these names and got stopped out don't be in a hurry to get back involved in them the bond yields continued lower here just amazing i'm going to point it out again this is the level that i had pointed out two weeks prior to it being the probable level where we were going to reverse from then we got the magazine cover 5317 was the number i mentioned and we're down uh you know a hundred basis points from there just incredible uh sentiment study etc the mags they're broken they have a pattern here of lower highs and lower lows they got above the five-day moving average but you can see this right here that's me pointing to subscribers that we don't trust this rally in here because we had a declining five-day moving average so where's this head i mean maybe we get a bounce again and people get excited about these bounces but we're more likely to head back down into the 200-day moving average and year to date anchor some of the big movers this week were you know clearly to the downside uh let's talk about google just smashed in here and i pointed out on on x on twitter some levels of interest and those levels of interest included you know the anchor off of this low and we're on that and then you take a look at the fibonacci off of there and we're at a 50 retracement what's more likely to bounce than in here is you know we probably undercut this low first so maybe we get a little bit more weakness on monday and then we begin a bounce but and that bounce might be you know 10 15 before it rolls back over makes a lower high and who knows you know if you really want to think the possibility is even longer term than that you might look at it and say if we go and open this up a little bit that that would maybe it creates that uh let's put this back on and maybe it comes down like i said on monday we rally up and then in the next couple weeks we do this and then who knows maybe it's the next earnings report and we do this and then what do we have then we have a head and shoulders pattern and you know that's months away i'm not going to make that prediction i'm just saying this is how you should be looking at charts is envisioning what the potential scenarios are and what more importantly what will you do if those scenarios are in fact what unfolds so anyone who bought the dip in google except for the last 30 minutes of the day on friday is in a losing position we're coming into an important level so if you're a short-term trader wait for the buyers to gain control let's look at a five-minute time frame because here's friday's vwap and we got above the vwap you don't buy across of the vwap you have to say how did it get there well rallied three points to get there no thanks i'm not going to rally i'm not going to chase it up there and the daily view app is below the two-day vwap so maybe instead let's take a look let's back this out to a 15-minute time frame and this is what i call scenario mapping we're simply mapping out potential scenarios we come down we undercut the lows we spoke about and then maybe in a few days you know here's the anchor from the earnings report so maybe in a couple days we do something like this we continue week monday and tuesday let's say we come up to that anchor and then we get rejected from it by that point the five-day moving average looks like this and then on friday on uh wednesday thursday of next week we start to look like this maybe we get an undercut and guess what that could be a good swing trade against the declining 2050 and 200-day moving average but it might be a bounce what's your time frame and have rules of engagement is what you need to do intel like i said just a complete disaster in there meta remember how everyone is so excited about you know dots or whatever they call their thing right here everyone who bought after that is in a losing position risk management is job number one it's just as simple as that if you're not protecting your gains expect to give them back i spoke about texas instruments this week on monday i had put this on uh twitter as well and said you know i i bought it at 287 dollars per share and i guided subscribers through this uh piece by piece my first quarter position was taken off at 292 up five dollars per share and on that day i was perfectly happy with it continuing to move higher i was reducing my risk in case this happened i didn't want to feel like an idiot for not selling some it rallied up and i got stopped out of some with a gain of 11 dollars per share at uh 2 uh 290 whatever it was um 298 uh so 11 dollars per share friday after the close i sold some i'm sorry thursday after the close as intel reported i sold another quarter at 309 dollars per share up 22 dollars per share on that the final piece was stopped out on friday afternoon at 297 per share so on so i took a gain of five dollars eleven dollars 22.11 on average it was 12.25 per share purchased it at 287. so yeah if i held it i could still be higher but you know what the way this market is i'm happy to be out there's always the potential to get involved again that's the way i handle the swing trade in this environment i'm more aggressive about taking profits off if we were over here and the rest of the market was strong then i would have held it longer bigger pieces longer and this wouldn't have happened but that did happen and i'm perfectly okay with that and that's what having a plan is all about alpha trend subscribers also got long uh target therapeutics right here and we're out of half of it they might have earnings due on monday is what i'm told but uh the company hasn't confirmed that let's just take a look at some of these other disasters micron just you know it rallied right into the 20 and 50 day moving average and got crushed it's most likely going to test this level once again the anchor off the year-to-date low and if that fails it's probably heading down to the year-to-date anchor spacex i was asked about by a subscriber on uh tuesday and i said you know it keeps hammering away at the anchor off of the the all-time low and that any time a level of support is tested the more likely it is to fail to hold that's just technical analysis 101 and we had lower highs and lower lows and we were stuck below the anchor from the earnings report in in that anchor from the earnings report we rallied up to and we got rejected so now here's what i'm looking for in uh in spacex at a minimum i'm looking for it to come down into this zone right here near 130 here's why we've got the measured move this is point a uh here let me do that again this is this a right here is 176.42 point b is 140.66 so that's 35.76 that's the height of a to b uh this is a to b that's the distance so then you take b a point b and you say what was the high that was this becomes point c this is a b c and what typically happens is we see the measured move is we get the um the the height of a to b is typically equal to the height of point c to d and that would give us a measured move objective of 130.42 i'm not stuck on 130.42 i'm looking at the 130 zone because that's where we had these prior lows as well so i'm looking at it to be more bullish for a bounce if it came down to 129 and a quarter then we get a bounce and i would look at it as a bounce that's guilty till proven innocent because we have a 20 and a 50 day moving average that are declining we're below the anchor from the ipo we're below the anchor from the all-time uh low so why would you expect the buyers to regain control i've been talking about you know avoiding nvidia because as we spoke about these breakouts have all failed breakout here that purchase was you know doomed to failure as was this one as was this one and as was this one we've spoken about this week after week now we're down to the year to date anchor and the 200 day moving average is there a pattern here that i can look at and says i see a low risk place to enter a position some of you might think well sure i'm going to buy it here with a stop under 200 well a lot of people think their stop should go under 200 so it's most likely going to go to 199 you know 65 and then bounce to clear out the people below the obvious number what about microsoft they reported earnings initially it was up at 560 and change but it couldn't get out of its own way here so this one's dealing maybe neutral at best how about netflix continues to be a disaster it's moving you know it's coming down to these key levels uh on the uh longer term chart the anchor off the 2022 low and that means it still probably has room down towards 57 58 there's no reason to be in a hurry to buy these things in downtrends that's my main uh message here hopefully it resonates with you this was a long video hopefully it was you know not boring and you found value in the extra commentary let me know