Stock Market, Bitcoin & Gold Analysis for Week Ending 10/23/26

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: everybody it's brian shannon from alphatrends.net today is friday the 23rd of october and uh we had a pretty ugly week for the markets really i mean you know the russell was up a little bit but it's still in a downtrend same with biotechs the bigger news was the semiconductors continue to be weak and it's been a brutal month for them down 13 and a half percent let's take a look at these charts and make some sense of it the s p 500 you can see that it's been holding the anchor from the summer low and that's that blue line here that keeps getting tested and like any level of support the more times it's tested the more likely it is to fail now there's nothing here indicating it's about to fail however we have to keep in mind that this market is now below declining 20 and that's the red line and below the declining 50-day moving average which makes it more likely it will break down now what i had just deleted was we are still within this you know range that we've been in for the last couple months and the range below that would be defined by basically this box i just drew in what's most important is that we're back below the declining five-day moving average on wednesday it appeared as though the buyers might be gaining back control but that quickly uh got demolished so it's back to the downside and from that failed move came a fast move lower and we have no evidence the buyers are gaining control here it might end up being that it has to come down and test this level near about 750 it's a little bit clearer i think uh in the uh in the nasdaq where you can see that the nasdaq is down to the april low so we've undercut this prior summer low previously and that is where we uh you know looked at that failure and thought well the next level of interest below is that april low so we're coming down to the anchor from that level we've undercut this little low right in here or actually we're about to if we uh come down and test this level and i think it's going to be led mainly by the semiconductors which makes sense because that's how uh the nasdaq generally works and the nasdaq is down to the year-to-date anchored volume weighted average price that's the orange line right there and the 200-day moving average so those are together because basically the market's been open 204 days this year so they're going to be in the general same spot but we saw that the year-to-date anchor previously was a place where buyers gain control now that low right there the the level for this is uh 50363 what i'm hoping that we can see is that we see next week we undercut the 200-day moving average and actually undercut this low right here maybe even dip slightly below 500 and then from there once we clear out the stops under here and lure in uneducated short sellers at that level then we're likely to see a quick bounce uh so that's what i'm looking for out of the semiconductors a lot of people are looking at saying hey it's bouncing from the 200-day moving average i don't see the evidence of a bounce i mean we were higher today by you know three dollars and 85 cents or uh you know 75 basis points but the fact is we're still below that declining five-day moving average in order for this market to become neutral in the intermediate term i think we have to get back up above this prior little band of support from uh late last week and early this week getting back above there makes it more neutral and then perhaps it can build for a rally my preferred scenario is we come down undercut this low and even undercut the 500 level gets get a real flush of fear and then i think you're likely to see a pretty violent bounce to the upside perhaps up to the month to date anchor in your 570 and that's where we'll see this 20-day moving average next week uh early next week bearing down on it as well as the 50-day moving average which are declining but again i would say that if this scenario pans out i think we'll see a quick and violent bounce but if it bounces up to there i would not be looking for it to likely continue through that but we'll have to take it one step at a time so ideally we undercut this low and the 500 level and then we start to see the market turn i had mentioned that that's kind of similar to what i'm looking for in intel is an undercut of the summer low and that 200-day moving average and then perhaps get going uh to the upside so i think my you know intel is a great proxy for it i micron is isn't really the best stock to to look for in this scenario we from the year to date anchor low so that's one important level but if it breaks below there then we've got bigger issues maybe down to the 200-day moving average i just think intel is probably the better one and i've been talking about texas instruments as well which isn't really a stock that a lot of people talk about when it comes to semiconductors but it's holding up much better now it's showing relative strength but it's not going higher so i'm not really interested in relative strength to own it because it's going up you know it's not going down as much but it's definitely something to keep an eye on for next week in terms of maybe it can start to uh you know turn the corner a little bit anyways back to the russell 2000 this is how i've been looking at this on a consistent basis and this looks to me like it's most likely another higher low now i am lower high rather i'm sorry so we have these lower highs and of course these lower lows confining this downtrend at the declining 20-day moving average now next week if we get back up through that and this ends up being a higher low on the daily time frame so if we see a higher high this will become the higher low and then perhaps it can rally up to the declining 50-day moving average i would not expect it will continue to rally once up through that 50-day moving average but stranger things have happened so if we get a bounce then i think this you know as long as this low holds and if we start to rally like this you could probably look for a rally up towards that 50-day moving average uh for a bounce trade biotech same you know same story we're they're still guilty till proven innocent they broke their 20-day moving average and made this higher high here and again that higher high did not have a higher low so you don't want to be a buyer of these higher highs like this especially with a declining 20 and 50-day moving average that was a sucker uh you know breakout because it was already extended from 144 to 155 by the time it broke out it got sold into now if it can carve out a higher low in here then maybe it can rally up to that 50-day moving average and start to stabilize a little bit more you've also got to keep an eye on these weekly charts because the weekly charts are still positive overall so you know that's another consideration but my primary interest is on these two time frames the daily time frame and the 30 minute time frame and that's because i'm a swing trader financial stocks they rallied right into their declining 50-day moving average and they're starting to find supply in that area now this is what i've been looking at these are the higher lows and this is your new higher low to set your stop under if it breaks that next week it's time to move to the sidelines on at least partial because it's rallied to the place where it's supposed to find supply at that 50-day moving average it doesn't mean it's just going to completely fall apart from here that's not what i'm looking for i think it's more likely that the buyers try to re-establish control if it comes down to that 20-day moving average and then we start to pinch between the 20 and 50 and who knows maybe you know in this fourth quarter we can see that it does continue to to rally into the end of the year always have an open mind if you look at the 10-year yield it's done exactly what we've been looking for to do over the last several you know five or six weeks as it was at first broached the five percent level i was saying keep an eye not on five percent but on 5.317 that was this peak right here from 2007 and if it rallied up through that it was likely to be a near-term peak and they were likely to see some uh you know magazine covers in that and the mainstream media go berserk well right at that very peak we did see a um magazine cover from the economist you know talking about uh interest rates well it's gone straight down you know in back below five percent now it's on the 50-day moving average it's probably you know it's most likely done going lower for this leg although you could look at and say well the the you know the the distance here let's do this this is what i'm trying to do the distance from a to b and this is b to c so c to d this would be point c c to d might imply it drops all the way down to 480 which you know you've got to listen to the to the market each market on its own merits the way it was advertised to most people is if interest rates start declining then what would happen then the s p should go higher but instead we're seeing just the opposite interest rates are dropping so is the s p 500 trade each stock each market based on its own merits not on the theoretical relationships that don't always line up you can't trade the s p based on what the bonds are doing and you can't trade the bonds based on what the s p is doing you trade bonds based on what bonds are doing you trade the s p based on what the s p is doing it's really just that simple um so anyways you know bonds they're probably going to settle that back down into here and this indicates the worst is probably behind us for at least a few weeks i you know i'm not one to make calls going out more than a couple weeks it just doesn't make sense to do that um we can also take a look real quick at uh bitcoin uh bitcoin is still having trouble with this 85 level i'm still you know bidding down at 79 uh and change and hopefully it can continue down there we got a little spike up that was quickly sold into so i think it's more likely that we do drop back down below that 80 level uh sometime in the next couple of weeks and let's talk about gold as well because gold is you know i've been telling subscribers to alpha trends and and here as well um by the way if you're viewing this on youtube uh and and you know i i do have a 10 subscription on x where i update the markets twice a day every single day plus some other uh posts well you can get that same exact information on youtube now because i've fired up the youtube subscription a lot of people on youtube have told me hey i don't like x uh you know let me know if you ever do that uh a subscription here on youtube well it's here now and it's ten dollars a month as well anyways back to what we're talking about here on on gold now this was an important low back here in 2023 that's where this rally really began and then it pulled back and we saw an anchored volume weighted average price handoff the last place that that was touched was right here so we do another handoff and then another one here meaning that's the beginning of new momentum campaigns within this bigger uptrend from this green anchor well this volume weighted average price has held the the the price of gold very well until just this week now on here you can also see we have a declining 20-day moving average which is below declining 50 which is below declining 200-day moving average gold is in and has been in a bear market for some time here after peaking at 57 and change we're down at 4 000 now we're at around level number so you know i wouldn't say sell your gold here but it does seem highly likely to me that the next level where we're going to drop down to and start to try to stabilize is right down here at about 3900 and i'm not looking for it to do it like this it might end up going back here testing this prior band of support and then if it cannot get back up through there instead it rallies back up that prior support holds as resistance then you're likely to see in the next few weeks to months that it does continue down towards 3900 in other words there's no hurry to get involved in gold there's no hurry to get involved in bitcoin either um let's see some other names tesla did basically if you looked at what i had spoken about on uh trader tv on tuesday which i posted on youtube as well this is exactly what i drew in that day i said it's likely to run up to the 200 day moving average and the year to date anchor and find supply then if it can come back down and create a higher low then maybe tesla can build for uh you know for some energy for a push past this resistance that's been in place at 390. so that's one name amazon failed this week apple is the the one bright spot i would say be careful here it just broke out so just like all the other breakouts that we talk about you know you don't want to be a buyer of these breakouts when the stock is already extended because breakouts get sold into the break past this high the break past this high sold into sold into i would not be surprised at all to see in uh to see apple come back down towards 340 next week just the same as what we've been talking about over and over again with nvidia is that these breakouts continued to to continue to be uh you know sucker sucker uh moves that if you buy the breakouts after the market's already extended you're typically going to get uh you know sold into and that's exactly what happened this broke breakout worked for two days and then we've seen this large decline and by the way nvidia is showing no signs of support in here uh it's below declining five day moving average we had a little attempted rally on wednesday but from failed moves come fast moves i would not be in a hurry to buy any of these names that have done this so you know next week hopefully we can see the semiconductors get a nice flush out move and then we get a bounce trade and then uh you know we'll pick up again and see what's next. Have a good weekend, everyone.