Stock Market, Bitcoin & Gold Analysis 11/13/26

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Brian Shannon from Alphatrends.net. Today's Friday, the 13th of November, 2026. We had an up week mostly for the market here. In fact, the semiconductors were up close to 5% despite the debacle that we saw with NVIDIA. The worst performer was Bitcoin, just a disaster there. We'll talk about that in a moment as well. Let's take a look first at NVIDIA. That's what everyone's most interested in. When we look at the volume here on this daily chart, it looks like, well, just another big high volume day. But when we look at it a different way, and that different way is based on dollar volume right here. Now, the scaling only goes up to a billion, there's billions here. This is actually hundreds of billions. And we saw what was the largest volume in dollar volume, that is, in NVIDIA this week. Big volume tends to occur at turning points like we've seen recently with NVIDIA. So let's just go forget about that analysis for a moment. Actually, I'm sorry, let's take a look at the weekly chart with that same look, because you can see here on the weekly chart, just massive volume, dollar volume in NVIDIA. So has it made a low? It probably has, but probably isn't good enough for a trading plan. What I've, I've been active in this stock this week, but I'm currently not in a position. I had some yesterday, got out of it this morning. It was breaking the volume weighted average price from yesterday's low. We're still below declining five day moving average. And something that gets lost on a lot of people from week to week is that I talk about multiple timeframes. My first book, technical analysis, using multiple timeframes, how to profit from trend alignment would actually favor NVIDIA as a short sale. We'll come back to the semiconductors in a moment. Let's first talk about the SPY. The SPY, S&P 500, of course, is up against this prior band of what had been resistance, then turned support, and now is battling in this zone right here, right now. Again, prior support tends to act as resistance. And so far it is. I don't like the fact that we're below declining 20 day moving average. And that 20 day moving average is below the declining 50 day moving average, but we held the 200. That's true. So what does that mean? It means we have indecision. And when we have indecision, we have choices, continue to trade the same market, the same way you've been doing, or look to a shorter term timeframe, or maybe just sit on your hands for a little while, let things shake out before we just see what's next. So we've got the declining 20 and 50 day moving average, which tells me it's likely that we will continue lower. Now look at this again here too, because volume expands in the direction of the trend and peaks at turning point, then diminishes on the counter trend rallies into that prior band of support, which has the potential to become resistant. So when we look at the shorter term timeframe, we're holding above the anchor off the low. And that would be of course, right here. And we held that today after an intraday shakeout, the five day moving average is advancing. What will the five day moving average do on Monday as we average this data out? How about Tuesday? Well, if we do something like this and get trapped below that five day moving average, which will start to flatten out, then maybe on Tuesday, Wednesday, we start to see it flattens out a little bit more. And then if we start breaking down, then I think it's highly likely we continue lower. That seems like the more probable scenario. What could change that is if the market does something like this instead, build some higher highs and higher lows, pushes up through this level, this ends up being just a big bear trap and we run to new highs for the end of the year. I don't have the answer. Nobody does. But what I look at is say, we're in this area of indecision. I'm going to wait for more evidence from the market before I decide which direction it really wants to go. If it's this way, well, then I will look to get short. If it's this way, I will get, look to get long for more than just these little intraday trades that have been so annoying, unless you're, you know, one of these people who loves day trading. I don't love day trading. I've done that too many years in my life. It's not my thing anymore. The NASDAQ, same story. We have this prior band of support. We have a declining 20, declining 50-day moving average, but an advancing 200. The 200-day moving average, the direction of the 200-day moving average is more important than a couple of closes below it. So even over here, and then back to the 200-day moving average, this is where we were really in a true bear market 2022 ending in 2023 when we were below a declining 200-day moving average. This is still advancing, and it will continue to advance for the next several months unless we break down real hard, because this is where we were 200 days ago. So as we replace, as we build new days over here and replace it with this data, that 200 has to continue to move higher unless it does this. Well, then if it does that, it's really of no value to us. So I'm not really too focused on the 200-day moving average. To me, the fact that the 20 and the 50 are declining says, let's be really cautious here. We've seen group after group get annihilated, and, you know, people think that they're getting their, you know, turnarounds in them. Nebius is one of those, you know, and it had this big rally, but that big rally is no different than this big rally right here. It's a broken stock. It's below a declining 20-50-day moving average. You can trade these, but trade them tight. Get ready to move to the sidelines. Take partials off into strength, because you never know when this is going to happen, although in this case, it was on earnings. So, you know, CoreWeave, people are excited about CoreWeave, or was it, and that one's, you know, starting to fade again. CBRS is another one that people are getting excited about, but guess what? It's a stock in a downtrend. They reported earnings, and this looks like a likely failed rally here. Volume is likely peaking right here at this turning point before it turns lower, and maybe starts to turn sideways. I'm getting off track here. Let's go back to the NASDAQ, because if we start to do something like this in the NASDAQ, well, that five-day moving average is going to look like this, and then it's going to continue to rise a little bit. So maybe Monday, Tuesday, we do this, and then if it starts to break down, that will tell me we sucked in more longs, that this bounce rally that maybe looks like this for a day, day and a half, then comes down like this, then it's time to look at the short side pretty aggressively. What can turn this around on the daily time frame? It's really difficult. We have a very clear pattern here that continues to persist, and that pattern is very clear lower highs and lower lows. Now, maybe we pull, maybe Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, we pull back like this, carve out a higher low, and then we can do something like this, rally up to the 50. That's less likely, but possible. I'm interested in probable, not possible. To me, this looks more probable. So again, I don't have the answers. If you came here looking for the answer, wrong. I'm looking at this and saying, here's a review of where we are, and here are certain scenarios that will play out and what to look for next week. This is something I do every single day for Alpha Trends members, whether you're on alphatrends.net, X, or YouTube. I do this every day, really inexpensively, and it's a huge educational opportunity. If you're not signed up, or you haven't tried it, now's your time to do so, because you're getting so much value in this market relationship with the education. The Russell 2000 continues to be neutral at best. It's got a declining 50-day moving average. We've spoken about this for the last three weeks. A declining 50-day moving average, it's less likely to follow through the upside. It doesn't mean it cannot, but it's less likely, and it's falling short of the anchor from the all-time high over here. So you look at this and you say, it's just realistically, it's in a big, big mess here. And it's back to the midpoint of that mess. The 50-day moving average will continue to decline all next week as we average this data out. In two weeks, we average this data out. In three weeks, the 50-day moving average has the possibility of being able to flatten out. How does that fit in with the weekly chart? Well, on the weekly timeframe, we're really kind of, you know, we're holding on this anchor. We've gone through, you know, this anchor from the 2025 low, and then this gap up and the handoff from that, that's the anchor we're holding. If we start to break below and hold below this 270, 269 level, it's possible we could be in for a move down to here. Don't think it can't happen. For now, it's just, to me, in a void. Semiconductors, they rallied up to, you know, the year-to-date anchor. That's that orange line. That 20-day moving average is declining. The 50-day moving average is declining. Like I said, we were up 5% this week. Fantastic move. Great. We had a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Then we had a lower high, and then we had a lower low. Now we have another lower low. And if we come up like this and show another lower high, well, then this market is probably heading down towards the next level. What's that next level? It's this anchor right here. And that would bring it down to approximately, we've spoken about this level before, about 437 or so. And that's certainly possible. So don't think the semis have made a stand or that they're turning. Maybe they have, but the evidence is not conclusive. Not when we start to see that we're having trouble in here and that five-day moving average can provide trouble for us next week. So again, maybe, you know, don't get too excited on Monday. Monday is likely an inside day, Tuesday, who knows. And if we start to turn lower, maybe on Wednesday, Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, it could get ugly. Be aware. Biotechs, they have a declining 50-day moving average. This is a group that has the potential, you know, it has relative strength. Great. Wonderful. Relative strength means it's not going in this market. It means it's not going down as much as the rest of the market. It's holding up. Well, you don't get paid on holding up. You get paid on absolute strength. Relative strength is great to say, here's what's potentially next, but it's not a reason to buy. We have, as I've pointed out here, these lower highs. And it looked like it had the potential maybe to make a turn if it did something like this, because the 50-day moving average will start to flatten out. Last week, I reviewed this potential scenario, and it's still my preferred scenario. It's not a prediction, but I would love to see that everyone starts talking about this head and shoulders pattern. We break down, maybe test the 200, even undercut it, come down to the year-to-date anchor, then do this. And then once everyone is talking about this obvious, obvious head and shoulders pattern, it turns out to be a bear trap. We come back in up here, and then we start to build for the next push higher into the end of the year. Not a prediction, but definitely my preferred scenario. I love it when we get that failed breakdown first. Let's take a look at the bonds. They were down pretty good this week. That, of course, means yields are rallying. They're likely to pull back in a little bit next week, something like this. But right now, I think they're going to be a lot of headlines about them, but I don't think that they really matter yet. We've probably seen the high, I think, for the year in the yields with, you know, six, seven weeks remaining. Doesn't mean that's, you know, I would sell short. It doesn't mean I would sell short the yields, but it means that, you know, we're probably going to start to see a contraction of the volatility in here and not really get much in terms of directional movement for more than maybe a few days at a time. Let's talk about gold first, because gold, you know, I mentioned it last week. I got a lot of people who were saying, hey, is it time to buy gold? It's back above that anchor? And my answer was steadfastly, no, we have a declining 20, declining 50, declining 200-day moving average. This is likely a sucker move. And in fact, it was. And the place to have gotten out, there's nothing wrong with trading these bounces. Don't get me wrong. You know, trading a bounce in Nebius, trading a bounce in Cerberus, whatever your little broken stock is that you think is made a low, look at them as guilty until proven innocent when they're below these key moving averages. It'll save you a lot of money. As we broke below the anchor from the low we saw two weeks ago, that's when the game was over for the longs on this bounce. And it came down, undercut this low. Now it's on the anchor that we were talking about from this level right in here. And now the next level, if we, you know, I think it's probably going to hang around in this area. And then probably continue lower down, who knows, maybe towards that 3,600 level. But the fact is gold continues to be in a bear market. It makes lower highs and lower lows, below a declining 20, 50, and 200-day moving average. It's in a bear market. If you want to buy it because you think, hey, well, five years from now, I think it's going to be this or that. Great. Just wait for the buyer, you know, for the sellers to stop basically and give it some time. Bitcoin disaster this week. As I mentioned, I had purchased it as a bounce trade over in here as it was kind of right on the anchor from the year to date, which I seem to have erased off and this green anchor off of the year to date low. So as I bought it in here and I said, I'm getting out if it breaks below this level right in here, which is this low right here. And that circle is where I exited. Thank God I do not get married to the belief that Bitcoin is the savior of what, you know, the society or whatever, you know, people tell themselves that it's only going to go up and it's going to 100,000 and 250,000 or whatever. Only price pays. It broke the lower low and it rallied a little bit after. And of course I had a little bit of thought, hmm, maybe it's going to recover here. But I looked at it objectively and said, no, it's making lower highs and lower lows. It's probably a lower high. I didn't sell it short. I don't sell short Bitcoin, but man, that would have been a nice move. Bitcoin just is a disaster right now. If you look at it, it didn't hold that 200 day moving average. That was kind of its last hope in there. So I would say, uh, you know, don't be looking to buy Bitcoin. Um, what else did I want to talk about? I wanted to speak about the mags because they remain stuck below declining 20, which is below declining 50. And they're more likely, I think, to come down into here. Maybe they do something like this next week. And that could be a good short. Um, I know a lot of people have an eye on SpaceX. To me, it's not a trade because we have this merger, you know, speculation with Tesla. And the thing is though, if you look objectively at the stock, what do you see? Here's the anchor from the IPO. The average participant owns it at that orange line, about 148. What about from the very, the lowest the stock traded? Let's get rid of this because that doesn't fit. Um, what about from the lowest point it's ever traded? What's the average price from that low? The average price from that low is about 145. Isn't that the price of stock came public at? I think it might be, I could be wrong on that, but, and then look, look at this. Okay. You've got this prior band of support in here. That's maybe acting as resistance. We look at the anchor off of the low. We had a nice drop down, which we anticipated. Don't forget that we were expecting it to drop down to this level. And we had spoken about that and we had a nice bounce. Now, what do we see? Volatility up in here. Don't get involved in the stock in the first 30 minutes of the day. It just tells you that's the personality of the stock is expect a ton of volatility. If you're going to be a little patient with it, maybe we get a little pushup on Monday and guess what? We'll be averaging this data from the five. So it's likely we're going to get trapped below there. And that kind of turns it neutral. That turns the 30 minute timeframe from a stage two uptrend to a stage three distribution and breaking down below here, as long as it's not too extended, makes it a stage four decline. And that says it's likely to continue back down. I am not a fan of, uh, SpaceX at all. If you follow me on X, you know, that I had mentioned C H a at 13 01 right here on Thursday. As I mentioned today, you'd have to be, if you were watching that and you purchased it, I'm glad you got involved. Um, and you'd have to be a fool to take a loss on it at this point, once it's rallied a dollar 36 from the entry. So this is the anchor from the IPO. This is the first handoff. This is a second handoff. We made it past that one. This is not a price target, but it still looks like it has the potential to go up towards 15 40 ish. If it can get up there next week, you better start tightening your stop. I think that if you bought it here, your worst case stop at this point is underneath this level. Don't let a stock that goes a $13 stock in a bearish environment, it rallies 8%. You know, don't let it turn into a loser just because your ego says I, you know, I I'm looking for something bigger. Use the definition of trend. If we see something like this on Monday and then it does this and starts to rally again, well then raise your stop up underneath this higher low. I'll update that for subscribers. Have a good weekend, everyone.