Sen. Lindsey Graham, U.N. Amb. Mike Waltz, more — Face the Nation Full Broadcast - June 21, 2026

[0:00] I'm Margaret Brennan in Washington, and this week on Face the Nation, [0:04] Vice President Vance kicks off historic talks with the Iranians over the nuclear issue. [0:09] But the Trump administration is finding that their path to peace is complicated. [0:14] Saying he wanted to avert economic catastrophe due to the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, [0:20] the president negotiates an agreement with Iran that's far short of the goals he set [0:25] in the nearly four-month conflict. [0:27] Did Mr. Trump wind up with the short end of the deal? [0:31] Some friends and foe alike say he did. [0:34] Tensions are also high between the U.S. and the Netanyahu government over Israel's attacks on Lebanon, [0:40] as the Trump administration issues unprecedented public criticism of one of our closest allies. [0:46] It can do a little softer touch, baby. [0:48] You don't have to knock down a building every time somebody walks into it that's from Hezbollah. [0:53] You can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have. [0:59] Politically, the president is also getting heat from key Republicans, [1:03] upset about his backtracking on Iran, having ballistic missiles, and other concessions. [1:08] One Republican senator calling this the worst foreign policy blunder in decades. [1:14] Others are also unhappy. [1:15] I do not want a theocratic lunatic who wants to kill us to have weapons to enable him to kill us. [1:23] We'll talk with U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz, South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, [1:29] and a key Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, Colorado's Jason Crow. [1:33] It's all just ahead on Face the Nation. [1:36] Good morning and welcome to Face the Nation, the first face-to-face meeting between the U.S. and Iran [1:57] since President Trump agreed to a truce. [1:59] Now, the 60-day window to reach an agreement on Iran's nuclear program has begun, [2:06] and the challenge for these talks is daunting. [2:08] What the president has asked us to do is turn over a new leaf to transform our relationship [2:15] with the people of Iran and to extend an outstretched hand that says to the people of Iran [2:21] that if your leadership is willing to give up being a driver of regional instability, [2:26] if they are willing to give up nuclear weapons ambitions for the long term, [2:30] then the United States is willing to fundamentally transform our relationship with that country. [2:34] Our CBS News poll out this morning shows that more than three-quarters of Americans [2:39] want to end the conflict now, with 69 percent saying the conflict with Iran was not worth the costs. [2:47] More than half, 57 percent, say the president's war with Iran created more problems than it solved, [2:54] and two in three believe that the administration reached agreement with Iran [2:57] mainly because it wanted the conflict to be over. [3:00] We're joined now by U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz, who joins us from New York. [3:06] Good morning and happy Father's Day. [3:10] Hey, good morning. Thank you, and happy Father's Day to all the great fathers out there. [3:14] Strong men make strong families. Thanks. [3:17] Well, Ambassador, the war is unpopular, as you just heard, but how it ends matters, as you know. [3:23] CBS's Olivia Gazzis is reporting that senior members of Trump's national security team, [3:28] including Secretary Rubio, remain doubtful Iran will comply with this deal's terms. [3:35] The CIA director presented Trump with intelligence, indicating inconsistencies with Iran's commitments. [3:42] So if even the president's own team doubts this is a win, how do you sell this to the public? [3:51] Well, Margaret, I'll go back to other polling that shows that the American people absolutely agree [3:58] with President Trump, that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. [4:02] Of course, we all want lower gas prices. [4:04] They are lower, below $4, and falling with more work to do. [4:09] They're cheaper than under the Biden administration. [4:11] We'll remember just a few months ago when analysts were saying oil would be upwards of $150 to $200 a barrel, [4:19] and it is not. It's now under $80. Of course, everyone wants cheaper energy, [4:25] but what President Trump is doing is striking that balance with also ensuring that a genocidal regime [4:31] that none of us trust can never have a nuclear weapon, and that process is underway right now as we speak. [4:39] Well, the American people also don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. [4:42] We see that in our polling, but they're unconvinced that this interim agreement achieves that. [4:47] But to the point you were just making about the regime, the vice president is sitting right now [4:53] behind closed doors face-to-face with Speaker Khalibov. [4:57] This is a man who oversaw the missile program in Iran when he was a commander in the IRGC's Air Force. [5:03] He has bragged, there are recordings of him doing so, about his own role in cracking down on protesters, [5:09] describing how proud he was about having personally beaten them with wooden sticks. [5:15] So we went from President Trump telling protesters that help is on the way to now sitting across [5:22] negotiating with one of the men who beat them. Aren't we offering the regime a lifeline? [5:30] Well, number one, this is a step forward that no other administration has ever been able to do, [5:37] and that's have direct talks. None of these senior members of this genocidal regime [5:43] are good guys by any means. They certainly wouldn't pass an FBI background check. No one expects that. [5:51] But at the end of the day, the administration, our administration is taking a pragmatic approach. [5:56] This is who the regime has put forward to deal with. [5:59] And they remain, and we remain, focused on the goal of no nuclear weapons, period. [6:07] And what we've seen in the past is policy drift in terms of what our aims are. [6:12] The president is laser-focused. The American people, and not just the American people, [6:17] the entire world, with U.N. Security Council resolution after U.N. Security Council resolution [6:22] for decades, saying Iran can't have a nuke. And we need to give this process a chance. [6:28] We need to give peace a chance. And as the vice president has said, perhaps we can finally turn [6:33] the page to a new Middle East, like President Trump did with the Abraham Accords his first term. [6:39] Let's give this a chance his second term. But, Margaret, I want to be very clear. [6:43] As Secretary Rubio said, we know the type of people that we're dealing with. [6:47] We have condemned them for killing 40,000 to 50,000 of their own citizens in just a weekend. [6:54] They hold Americans hostage. They've never returned the remains of Bob Levinson, [6:59] a former contractor from 20 years ago. We know who we're dealing with eyes wide open. [7:04] But the difference with the Obama administration is going to be all about verification, [7:12] no trust, and all verify whatever they put down on paper. And we know. And the other piece, [7:19] too, is it's backed by credible military force that the previous administrations took off the table, [7:26] removed their leverage. We are going in with a devastated Iranian economy, [7:30] a devastated Iranian military, and perhaps with some carrots that will be verified and pay for [7:39] performance, that we'll see a better deal this time. [7:45] I know the families of hostages appreciate you mentioning them. Many were disappointed that [7:49] their families were not included in any kind of goodwill gesture. There are six Americans being [7:54] help. But back to the deal, the vice president indicated some of the... [7:59] But, Margaret, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. That's a very important point. And I want those families to know [8:04] their loved ones are not forgotten. And this president's record in getting Americans home [8:10] is unparalleled from any president in modern American history. So I just want them to hear that loud and [8:17] clear. This president has his eye on the ball. Sometimes these talks are handled out of the [8:24] public eye. Senator Tom Cotton said this will allow Iran to sell its oil based on pre-war production [8:31] levels. It'll get between $150 and $200 million every single day, up to $6 billion per month. [8:37] What do you think these guys are going to spend that money on? [8:43] Well, first, that money is not going into some kind of slush fund. [8:48] That's oil revenue. [8:49] It is going to places that we can still monitor. If it's not going to the places that were agreed upon, [8:56] we can absolutely turn it back off. The president can put the blockade back in. [9:01] He just said this morning, if Iran doesn't get Hezbollah under control to stop attacking Israel, [9:08] that will be a violation. And he will go back to, again, the key point here is we have that [9:14] military option and all options on the table. Biden, Obama, none of the predecessors have that [9:21] in a very credible way like President Trump does. But the president himself says he wants to avert [9:26] economic disaster and that we're weeks away from a fuel shortage. So he seems to be saying [9:31] that he wouldn't necessarily want to return to conflict if that's the cost of it. So the credible [9:37] use of force seems in question. [9:39] No, but there's some nuance there, Margaret, that in the United States, we are producing [9:46] more than we ever have. Venezuela is now producing. Countries like Guyana in South America have whole [9:54] new fines that we're now helping. So we're actually getting more oil and gas on the market. But some [10:00] of our allies absolutely have been affected, particularly in Asia. And the president has that [10:05] in mind as he's negotiating. But he also has seen in the U.N., for example, the entire world [10:12] condemning this regime, a U.N. record, 143 countries for its illegal mining of the straits [10:19] and for its attempt to hold the world economy hostage. So they're diplomatically isolated. [10:25] They're economically devastated. They're militarily devastated. And despite what you read in the [10:30] headlines or some prognosticating, we are going into these negotiations from a position [10:34] of strength. Well, the vice president described [10:37] rapprochement this morning, and he indicated that some of the details of what was agreed [10:42] to are not written down. He referred to a gentleman's agreement. That phrase was also briefed to reporters [10:48] by an administration official. And here is what the president said. [10:51] If they don't honor the agreement or some things aren't even mentioned in the agreement, [10:57] it's a memorandum of understanding. But we have an understanding of certain things without [11:01] writing it. Are there classified annexes or portions of this [11:06] that have not been made public? And will they be shared with Congress? [11:12] Margaret, not to my knowledge. And I'll just go back to your point on [11:16] what's on paper and what's being discussed. This is an ongoing negotiation that we've never [11:24] before had directly with the Iranians. And I'll just say this from a lot of the doubts that you [11:30] played in your opening. This is the same team that got all of the hostages out of the tunnels of Gaza [11:35] that nobody said could be done. They got a ceasefire in place, not perfect, that no one said could be [11:41] done, that took care of the Maduro regime. He's in jail right down the street here in New York [11:46] with no casualties and Venezuela now on a better track. So I wouldn't doubt this president or this [11:54] team. There's going to be some bumps in the road for sure. No administration has been able to get [12:00] this far from a position of strength. And so I have full confidence that we'll get to a deal. [12:08] And as the vice president said, perhaps, perhaps give this a chance and we can have a transformed [12:14] Middle East. No one would have thought even a year ago that you'd have Israel and the UAE working [12:20] together militarily to defend each other as a result of the next evolution of the Abraham Accords. [12:27] Well, they were kind of forced to, but also... [12:29] We're in day one of the technical talks. And Margaret, by the way, there are technical experts [12:35] from the Department of Energy that are sitting down right now to get to the bottom of the downblending, [12:42] the moving of the uranium, the highly enriched uranium, and how that will technically be done. [12:48] So we have to give that process a chance as well. [12:51] Well, that's good to hear that the U.S. has its own nuclear experts on site. The White House [12:54] hadn't said that. Is there anything else you can tell us? Who's going to keep talking for 60 days? [13:00] Again, these are our Department of Energy experts, our PhDs in physics, a lot smarter than I am, [13:09] that are getting into those nitty-gritty details. But the big picture is the president's focused [13:15] on Iran not having a nuclear program. And right now it's destroyed. And we're going to keep it [13:24] destroyed and have it permanently destroyed as opposed to the past where it was ongoing [13:28] and we were basically bribing them to not continue. It's a totally different negotiation dynamic. [13:34] Well, that stockpile was shipped to Russia and the JCPOA. There were limits. We want to see what [13:41] limits these U.S. negotiators are actually able to secure. And we'll watch that diplomacy. Thank you [13:46] very much, Ambassador Waltz. We want to turn now to South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, who joins us [13:52] from Seneca. Good morning to you, Senator. Good morning. Good morning. There's a lot that still hasn't [14:00] been figured out here in this deal. But you wrote nine days ago the idea of a U.S. plan [14:05] with partners to create a fund of at least $300 billion, this is 0.6 in the memorandum, [14:11] is tone deaf and it's akin to a Marshall Plan for Germany with the Nazis still in charge. [14:18] Why did you change your position and now you support it? [14:25] Because before I thought the money was coming from the West. If the West funds Iran, I think that [14:32] would be a Marshall Plan with the Nazis still in charge for Germany. If the plan envisions the [14:37] Sunni Arabs? Yeah, if the Sunni Arabs do it, can you imagine if Saudi Arabia Qatar and the United Arab [14:46] Emirates invest $300 billion in Iran? That would tell me that Iran has changed. To all the experts out [14:54] there, do you think Saudi Arabia Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are going to invest in Iran [14:58] with a theocracy bent on destroying Sunni Islam? So think it through. If the money comes from the [15:05] Sunni Arab world, I hope it happens. It would mean that the Sunni Arabs believe that Iran has changed [15:12] to the point they want to be a business partner. I pray that happens. I doubt if it will. [15:17] You doubt if it will. Well, I want to ask you about some of the criticism of the agreement from [15:21] your fellow Republican colleagues. Take a listen. If we give billions of dollars to Iran, that money [15:29] will be used to murder Americans. And so I don't believe we should do that. They'll use the money [15:34] that is being released to rebuild their ballistic missile arsenal and begin to enrich again. And [15:44] that's going to be a continuing danger. That money, Brooke, we know is not going to go to [15:50] build new hospitals or daycares. It's going to go to replenish their drone stockpiles, [15:55] their missiles to support terrorists like Hezbollah and Hamas. We have 13 Americans dead. [16:01] We spent anywhere from $25 to $100 billion in munitions. And it turns out we've lost the [16:08] credible threat of attacking them again. There's a lot of stuff in there that's bad. [16:12] All of those Republicans are seriously doubting the president here, Senator Graham. Do you agree [16:20] with their concerns? No, I don't. We're not giving any money to Iran that can change the course of [16:28] history to try diplomacy. Is the MOU problematic? Yeah. I'd rather try diplomacy than take it off the [16:36] table. The money Iran gets is not going to change the future of Iran. It's not enough to reconstruct [16:42] the country. If you don't have a diplomatic path through the MOU, then you have to go to war [16:49] or some other form of coercion. Let's try this. Let's try a diplomatic solution. [16:55] I think it's going to fail. What happens next? I spent four and a half hours with President Trump [17:02] Friday. Here's what I think will happen next. If this deal fails, President Trump is going to take [17:08] the Strait of Hormuz over by force. The United States will control the Strait of Hormuz. We'll charge [17:14] your fee for all those who go through to pay for the operation. And we're going to expand the Abraham [17:20] Accords in calendar year 2026. We're going to get Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, [17:27] which is the biggest change in 5,000 years in the Mideast. And if Iran can test control of the [17:33] Strait of Hormuz by the United States, we'll obliterate them. So to all the people listening, [17:39] if this diplomatic effort fails, President Trump is going to take the Strait of Hormuz. [17:45] We're going to run it. We're going to try to get Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords in the [17:50] Arab-Israeli conflict in 2026. And if Iran continues to attack Israel and Lebanon, the new policy will [17:57] be we'll hit Iran. So to the Iranians, if you're listening, when you use Hezbollah to attack Israel, [18:03] I think the new policy will be we will attack Iran. [18:06] You have just laid out how you could turn what you think is a flawed document into an opportunity, [18:13] but you're also suggesting there that you can get Benjamin Netanyahu or whoever is the next prime [18:18] minister of Israel to recognize the Palestinian state, which is the price of normalization with [18:23] Saudi Arabia. How could you do that on the brink of an election? Well, for about two years, [18:30] Margaret, in case you missed this, I went to Riyadh and Jerusalem working on normalization with [18:37] President Biden. Yes. We're going to announce a framework to have Saudi joined the Abraham Accords [18:43] and at the end of October in 2023. Iran attacked on October the 7th. That created a real problem. [18:52] The Arab world is very upset about Gaza and everybody in Israel is very upset about October 7th. [18:58] But we're going to pick up where we left off. And Donald Trump is going to empower me and others [19:03] to jumpstart what we, an effort to get Saudi to join Israel. [19:09] There will be accommodations made by Saudi and Israel, to Saudi and Israel. [19:13] You have no better friend than Donald Trump. [19:16] To Bibi, Donald Trump stood by you when other people wouldn't. [19:19] I'm not asking you to do anything to jeopardize the future of Israel's security, [19:24] but I'm asking you to be open to expanding the Abraham Accords and finding a solution to [19:28] Palestinians that are good for Israel and, quite frankly, good for the world to the, to Saudi Arabia. [19:35] Now's the time to open negotiations yet again for you to expand the Abraham Accords, for you to join. [19:43] I think this is going to happen in 2026, and it can't happen until Iran's in a box. [19:49] If we get a deal, if we get a deal, Iran will be in a box. [19:52] If we don't get a deal, Iran will be in a box. [19:55] To Lebanon, to the people in Lebanon, help is on the way. [19:59] Hezbollah has been terrorizing your country for a long time. [20:02] That's about to end. [20:03] Senator, I have other questions I need to get to based on your responsibilities in the judiciary, [20:10] in the judiciary committee. [20:11] President Trump appeared to sabotage his own nominee, Jay Clayton, who was going to be the nominee [20:18] with a confirmation hearing last week to run the director of national intelligence. [20:25] He told him not to show up at his hearing. [20:26] So that let Bill Pulte, this controversial head of the federal housing agency, [20:31] who has no prior intelligence background or security clearance in charge. [20:36] Are you comfortable with giving Pulte the keys to the 18 agencies? [20:40] I think what we had in place should happen. [20:45] I think Clayton should be the new DNI. [20:47] President Trump was told that Democrats were not going to support FISA reauthorization, [20:52] and he got mad and pulled out of the agreement. [20:55] They will. [20:55] Mark Warner told me that there are enough votes to get FISA reauthorized, [21:00] and I would urge President Trump to let Clayton testify, [21:04] and that we nominate Clayton and get him affirmed as the new DNI. [21:08] We don't want FISA to go dark. [21:10] There's too many threats to our country for 702 to go down. [21:14] Anybody who owns the shutting down of 702 under FISA will own a future attack against the United States. [21:22] We're playing with fire here. [21:23] You said you spent time with President Trump this past week. [21:26] Did he say to you that he will do what you just laid out? [21:31] I'll let him speak for himself, but I told him that any Democrat that shuts down FISA [21:37] at a time of great peril of the United States is making a huge mistake. [21:41] The same would be true of the Trump administration. [21:43] We need FISA up and running. [21:45] So here's what I hope will happen, that Clayton will appear before the committee, [21:48] we'll get him confirmed, and we'll get FISA reauthorized, as the original plan was. [21:54] I think the Democratic votes are there. [21:56] We're playing with fire here. [21:57] No matter what side does it, America needs FISA up and running. [22:01] Well, you're talking about the surveillance tool that allows for foreigners of concern abroad to be monitored there. [22:09] Bill Pulte went after the president's perceived political enemies [22:13] and is accused of using private mortgage data and weaponizing it. [22:16] Mark Warner told us on this program last week, because he's so ignorant, he could do damage. [22:23] He's on the job right now. [22:25] Is he a risk? [22:26] Well, yeah, I'm fine right now, but I won't be fine much longer if we don't get FISA up and running. [22:34] And I think Clayton's the perfect pick. [22:37] Clayton has got the confidence of both sides. [22:40] Let's get him in a job that really matters. [22:42] And I thought it was an outstanding choice by President Trump. [22:45] And let's get this back on track. [22:47] We can't, you know, we've got to realize that there are people who want to blow us all up and kill us. [22:52] And they're coming if we don't stop them. [22:55] And if we don't get a run in a box, we're in our trouble. [22:57] So let's do it. [22:58] Let's stop talking and get it done. [23:00] Senator Graham, thank you very much. [23:01] Got to go to a break. [23:02] We'll be right back. [23:10] Welcome back to Face the Nation. [23:12] We go now to Colorado Democratic Congressman Jason Crowe. [23:16] Happy Father's Day to you. [23:20] Thanks, Margaret. [23:20] Congressman, you're on Armed Services and you're on the Intelligence Committee. [23:25] So I want to get to some of your responsibilities here, particularly on the intel front. [23:29] We were just speaking with Senator Graham about what's happening at the top of the Office of National Intelligence and the lapse of the Surveillance Authority. [23:39] Right now, Bill Pulte is the acting director of national intelligence. [23:45] He is someone who has been accused of using mortgage information to go after the president's political enemies. [23:54] I know that's under investigation currently by the GAO. [23:59] But the fact that he's in the role right now, what harm can be done, if any? [24:05] And do Democrats have any power to stop that? [24:12] Well, I'm obviously concerned that this is somebody who's a political attack dog and his single biggest qualification is that he's loyal to Donald Trump and is willing to go after Donald Trump's enemies. [24:21] But my more immediate concern is the fact that this is a really important position. [24:25] This sits atop our intelligence agencies. [24:28] And by law, Congress mandated that this person have significant intelligence experience because they have to make sure that we're keeping Americans safe, which is not what Bill Pulte is capable of doing. [24:41] So I'm just more worried day to day that Americans are at risk because we have someone who's incompetent at the head of this agency. [24:48] But will Democrats actually still reauthorize FISA? [24:52] You heard Senator Graham, again, link the two issues here and said that's really the bigger risk, the lapse of this key surveillance authority. [25:02] I know when this was up for a vote in front of the House, you were proud of having voted against reauthorization of this surveillance tool. [25:12] Do you think your party miscalculated here? [25:14] Yeah. [25:17] No, not at all. [25:18] I mean, I've always voted for FISA before. [25:20] I'm on the intelligence committee. [25:21] I know how important it is, but I'm unwilling to trade Americans' constitutional rights, privacy, and essential civil liberties for temporary extension of this program. [25:32] I'm just unwilling to do it. [25:34] That's what this administration is asking us to do. [25:36] They say, give up your constitutional rights, give up Americans' rights and privacy, and we'll just make sure we keep you protected. [25:43] I mean, that's what autocracies say. [25:45] I'm not going to do that. [25:46] I'm willing to have a discussion about what checks we need to put in place, a short-term extension. [25:52] I'm not going to give them a three-year runway on this program. [25:56] What about this administration would give us confidence that they're going to follow the law? [26:01] Short-term extensions, then we can talk. [26:04] But the chair of the intelligence committee, in terms of the Democratic leadership there, Jim Himes, said he hadn't seen violations. [26:12] You're saying that the Trump administration is doing that? [26:16] I mean, you're disagreeing with your own Democratic leadership. [26:21] No, I'm not disagreeing with Jim. [26:22] Jim and I talk frequently, and we're aligned on this. [26:25] There are public reports, many public reports, of potentially thousands of violations. [26:31] And to be more specific, these public reports allege that the Trump administration is using a filtering tool, again, this is all public, a filtering tool to bypass the checks and the warrant requirements that would normally be in place to prevent the violation of privacy rights and civil rights of Americans. [26:51] Now, we've gone to the Trump administration and said, tell us this is wrong. [26:55] Show us why this is wrong. [26:56] And if we have confidence, then we can kind of move forward to figure out what we need to do. [27:00] They have not responded to us at all. [27:03] So why would we sit here with no response, all of these allegations, numerous public reports of violations, and just vote blindly to extend this program? [27:14] It would be absurd for us to do that. [27:15] And, you know, we have the trust of our constituents and Americans, and we're not going to violate that trust. [27:20] Well, on the Senate side, where the fight currently is, Senator Warner said he thinks Trump wants the expiration of this surveillance tool to stay because he could then blame Democrats if some sort of attack happened here. [27:33] So what do you make of that? [27:35] And what will it take for you to reauthorize FISA? [27:38] Because it does—I don't hear a solution from what you just said. [27:41] Yeah, well, first of all, I agree with Senator Warner. [27:47] I don't think Donald Trump cares about Americans' national security and safety. [27:51] I think he has shown very clearly over the years his willingness to weaponize national defense, the military, the intelligence community, [27:59] the Department of Justice, against his enemies to score political points at the jeopardy of American citizens. [28:06] I mean, hell, the guy tried to put me in prison back in February simply because I told soldiers that they have to follow the law and obey their oaths. [28:14] So that is true. [28:16] What we need to do is we need very specific guarantees from this administration. [28:21] I want the facts. [28:22] Are they violating the law? [28:24] Are they skirting around the requirement, number one? [28:27] Number two, additional safeguards. [28:29] The last time we reauthorized this program, we put 55 additional safeguards in place. [28:34] We've learned between now and then there are more safeguards that are necessary. [28:37] This all takes time. [28:38] And number three, a shorter-term extension. [28:41] A shorter-term extension. [28:42] No, it wouldn't take that much time. [28:44] In a matter of days, they could give us that information. [28:47] We could figure that out. [28:48] We could vote on something. [28:49] We could get it done. [28:50] Let me ask you, because there was other news this week on the Armed Services Committee, [28:56] Secretary Hegseth announced the U.S. is going to conduct a six-month review of the U.S. force posture in Europe. [29:03] He threatened to cut American dues to NATO if European nations don't boost military spending. [29:08] He said NATO reluctance to assist in the American strikes on Iran seemed to be linked here to a potential reduction of U.S. forces in Europe. [29:18] Have you received any information on what this means, where the troops would be pulled from? [29:24] What does this look like? [29:26] Well, this administration is going to have a heck of a time in front of the Bipartisan Armed Services Committee, [29:34] which, in an overwhelming bipartisan manner, has said very clearly no troop withdrawals or changes from Europe [29:41] unless they come to the committee and explain why that's in our national security interests. [29:46] Over and over, we've done that. [29:47] And we just did that last month when we marked up the annual defense budget. [29:51] So they haven't come to us. [29:52] They haven't given us any of those details. [29:56] I'm not presumptively against troop changes, but what I am against troop changes is when they're not tied to our national security. [30:03] You know, if they want to move troops around Europe, fine, let's have that discussion. [30:06] But pulling them out of Europe would actually be detrimental to Americans. [30:10] I want to ask you about Iran. [30:12] The delegation that arrived in Switzerland was on board a plane that had painted on the side the word Minab 168. [30:21] That's a reference to the bombing that killed 168 people, most of them schoolchildren. [30:27] The U.S. military is still investigating. [30:30] But what can you tell us about American culpability and that probe? [30:38] Yeah, unfortunately, not very much. [30:40] I've been pushing extremely hard, CENTCOM, Central Command Commander, Admiral Kruper, and others, for facts on this. [30:49] This could be the single largest civilian casualty incident in U.S. military history. [30:54] We need facts. [30:55] We need to make sure that we own up to it, that we take accountability, that we make it right. [31:00] And, you know, as the founder of the Protection of Civilians in Conflict Caucus, I actually have done work for years around protection of civilians in conflict because my own time at war taught me the devastating effects, not just morally, but to our national security when we kill innocents. [31:20] We need answers to this. [31:22] And they're clearly slow rolling us, right? [31:24] This administration has no problem posting videos of strikes, posting videos of operations when they want us to see it. [31:32] And then when they don't want us to see it, they slow roll it. [31:34] That's clearly what's happening here. [31:36] So we're going to push hard to get answers. [31:39] All right. [31:39] We'll be tracking it. [31:40] Jason Crow, Congressman from Colorado. [31:42] Thank you very much. [31:43] We'll be right back. [31:43] There's been a big focus on Washington landmarks in recent months, but this weekend marks the opening of the Obama Presidential Center in Chicago. [31:56] Last Thursday, all the living former presidents and first ladies gathered for the dedication ceremony at the center on Chicago's south side to honor and celebrate the legacy of the nation's first black president. [32:08] Please help me welcome President Barack. [32:10] In his remarks, former President Barack Obama spoke of America's resilience and urged them to reject division and recommit to each other. [32:17] For us to give it now, after all this country's been through, to cynicism and division would be a betrayal of our founding ideas. [32:27] The former president was visibly moved by his speech from former First Lady Michelle Obama. [32:32] Eight years in the crucible, and not once did you melt from the heat. [32:40] You were doing the people's work, rescuing our economy, expanding health care, ending a war, ordering the bin Laden raid, saving an auto industry, winning a peace prize. [32:59] The Obama Presidential Center is somewhat of a departure from tradition. [33:02] It was designed to be a place for the community to gather, and includes a 19-acre park, a branch of the Chicago Public Library, and an NBA-sized basketball court. [33:14] And we're joined now by our Executive Director of Elections and Surveys, Anthony Salvato. [33:21] Good to have you here, Anthony. [33:22] So what has been the reaction to this agreement? [33:25] Good morning, Margaret. [33:26] People want the war to end, but this doesn't necessarily read as a satisfying end. [33:31] Let me unpack that. [33:32] Given the choice, yes, overwhelmingly, Americans say, try to end the war. [33:37] They see the potential for gas prices going down now, and you'll remember, that's been the chief domestic side complaint about the ramifications of all this. [33:46] When they look overseas, though, they see an Iran that they're not convinced has permanently stopped its nuclear program. [33:54] That's number one. [33:55] An Iran that Americans think will still probably threaten its neighbors in the region. [34:01] There are even other items that Americans have said ought to be U.S. aims. [34:05] Whether or not the administration has said that they are, like making sure the Iranian people are safe and free, like changing Iran's leadership to be more pro-U.S., that are on the list of things Americans say are not done. [34:18] So, on balance, Americans, very few, think that the U.S. is getting the better of this agreement. [34:25] One might think that would be the benchmark. [34:27] It's at best even. [34:29] They don't see the war as having been worth the cost if it ends now. [34:33] They're unconvinced by President Trump's claim of victory here. [34:37] So, why does the public think he made the deal? [34:41] So, they see a bit of expediency here in the sense that, yes, they think the administration is making the deal mainly because it wants to end the war, not that it thinks the U.S. has necessarily met all of its goals. [34:52] Cutting its losses, essentially. [34:53] And at the same time, they suspect the administration didn't quite judge the reaction of the world economy. [35:00] That has the ramifications back for gas prices at home, of course. [35:04] And so, that going forward says, okay, the people who say they've been most affected by gas prices are the ones who most want the war to end. [35:13] And you see some of that reflected in the president's approval ratings, which have been ticking down through the course of the war, but they've stabilized now, just up another point. [35:22] However, I should add, within the Republican base, the president's base, which has and does back him on this, there's a sizable 40% that say they think the administration should press on until Iran gives up more. [35:37] So, they see some unfinished business here. [35:39] They're more likely to say it's not acceptable to leave the current Iranian regime in power and in the war. [35:45] They're more apt to think that Iran, yes, will threaten its neighbors. [35:48] That's what I mean by that unfinished business. [35:51] And overall, the public still thinks that this conflict has created more problems than it's solved. [35:58] Anthony Salvato, big reaction to the big news. [36:01] We'll be back in a moment. [36:06] What impact will America's negotiations with Iran have on gas prices? [36:10] We're joined by energy analyst Kevin Book of Clearview Energy Partners and Amos Hochstein, a former Biden White House senior energy advisor and Middle East negotiator. [36:18] Good morning to you both. [36:19] This is probably one of the most central conversations because the president made it very clear that the price of fuel was at the heart of some of his decisions. [36:30] He said he doesn't want economic catastrophe. [36:31] We're running out of these fuel inventories. [36:35] So, Kevin, when do we get back to pre-war gas prices? [36:38] It might be a while, Margaret. [36:40] So, we've seen some downward travel rapidly in the gasoline price. [36:43] We probably have another $0.05 to $0.10 per gallon coming if the oil price holds. [36:47] But we have some uncertainty about what's coming next. [36:50] And so, to get all the way back to where we were before the war, we would need inventories to replenish. [36:54] We've drawn them down a lot and it's going to take a while. [36:57] The International Energy Agency doesn't expect to see a surplus before the end of this year, maybe next year. [37:01] So, refilling those inventories and coming back to that price might be a while. [37:06] So, it's not the quick fix that perhaps the president is hoping for here, Amos. [37:10] I mean, there are a lot of moving parts here. [37:12] It's confusing because the IRGC yesterday was saying they control the strait. [37:18] CENTCOM says that's not true. [37:21] We see reports that there are tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz now. [37:26] Does Iran control the strait and is there a way the U.S. can do what Senator Graham proposed, which was just bomb our way to control of it? [37:35] Well, first, yes. [37:36] Iran controls the strait. [37:38] And I've said this for weeks. [37:39] No matter what the agreement says, wherever the MOU says. [37:42] And by the way, the MOU hints at Iran having control of the strait in the future together with Oman. [37:47] Point five there. [37:48] Inside the MOU, which is remarkable that we have essentially given that point away ahead of the negotiation. [37:54] But Iran is already saying it's not control is not just about a toll, a price for now. [38:01] It's about I want 48 hours notice before you're going to cross. [38:05] Or they'll say that ship from the company that I don't like can't cross today. [38:11] You can cross tomorrow or never. [38:13] Or if I don't like Saudi Arabia or I'm upset with Kuwait, I can say your ships are not crossing. [38:19] Control means a lot of different things. [38:20] But effectively, they are planning for control with eventually a toll of some kind or a fee structure of some kind. [38:28] That's the world we're going towards. [38:29] But a toll is a violation of international law. [38:32] But the president is saying the U.S. will charge one if this doesn't go our way. [38:36] How does that work? [38:37] Look, the president is saying if we will bomb it, we'll take it, we'll charge a toll, whatever. [38:43] I put that as some of the bravado rhetoric that nobody's paying attention to anymore. [38:47] The Iranians saying that it's against the international law to charge a toll. [38:50] I mean, the Iranians supporting terrorists in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, they're doing a lot of things against international law. [38:56] Charging a toll will be the least of it. [38:58] But what they're basically telling the market is, do you want the straight fully open with a toll or do you want chaos where you never know what's happening without a toll? [39:06] But they'll have control. [39:08] That's what is what they're aiming for. [39:09] That's the result of this war. [39:11] You heard Mike Waltz, the ambassador, and other U.S. officials claim, Vice President Vance claimed this was like a historic meeting, just the fact that they had the meeting. [39:22] For two years, the Obama administration negotiated with Iran. [39:27] I covered it. [39:29] You were part of it. [39:30] When you hear these claims that this is somehow going to be better, based on the facts, what's your biggest problem with this document, the MOU? [39:42] So my biggest problem is that we've signed a document that says, Iran, you get money, control, access to unfrozen assets. [39:52] We reverse the we give a waiver on your oil and petrochemical sanctions. [39:56] And all you have to do is open the straits and agree to talk to us about something they were already talking to us before the war. [40:02] We're giving that entire document is giving incentives to Iran. [40:07] All they have to do is open the straits. [40:09] That's it. [40:10] That is my problem. [40:11] And we got out of the JCPOA, the 2015 agreement, because we said, what did Trump say at the time? [40:18] You didn't address missiles. [40:19] You didn't address support for proxies. [40:21] We've now said it's off the table. [40:23] They have every—more than that. [40:25] We've given them the right to have a ballistic missile. [40:28] This agreement made America less safe. [40:31] We should never have gone to war. [40:32] But we've now essentially surrendered. [40:36] Well, Kevin, you, in your analysis, went point by point comparing the memorandum to the interim agreement, the JPOA, as John Kerry used to call it, instead of the JCPOA. [40:49] And you, as an analyst, not as anyone with political ties here, say that the Trump deal is more lenient than the Obama deal in several respects. [41:00] Can you break this down? [41:01] Sure. The most obvious is that the old deal that preceded the JCPOA, the Joint Plan of Action, JPOA, limited Iran's exports to 1.1 million barrels per day. [41:13] There is no obvious limit in this deal. [41:15] So the MOU, to the extent that it corresponds to the JPOA, is essentially saying that Iran can resume exports probably at the 1.6, 1.7 million barrels per day level it was exporting at before the war. [41:26] Now, would it return all the way to 2.5 million barrels per day? [41:29] Probably not, because importing countries, we're going to have to have some confidence in the durability of this. [41:35] And so I think in that respect, it's probably the biggest give relative to its predecessor. [41:39] Well, on this point, Vice President Vance was asked about Iran being able to sell its own oil again, and I want to read it to you, Amos. [41:48] He said, by lifting the sanctions, letting them sell their own oil, we're going to be able to see a little bit where their financial system actually sends money and receives money, and that's a real benefit to the American people. [42:00] What do you make of that agreement? [42:03] I have no idea what he's doing. [42:03] I have no idea what it means. [42:05] At the end, they sell oil. [42:07] By giving waivers, it means two things. [42:09] One, it expands the number of customers they'll have from just China, essentially. [42:14] And number two, they won't get a force to sell their oil at a discount. [42:20] They'll get the full amount, because there's no discount when there's no sanctions. [42:23] So instead of selling before the war, meaning in December, discount to $60, so $50-something a barrel, they'll be selling it at about $75 to $80 a barrel. [42:33] That means a billion a week in revenue. [42:36] We've had years of them selling oil. [42:38] We know how their financial system works. [42:40] Treasury knows how their financial system works. [42:41] The intelligence community does. [42:43] Why we're giving, as Kevin just said, why we're allowing them to get all the money up front and then expect them to make concessions, [42:51] and the same concessions we could not get them to do during battle, during war, [42:58] that somehow they'll do while they're making enormous amounts of money, [43:01] and God only knows what they're going to be spending this money on. [43:04] Again, I wasn't for this war. [43:05] I was against this war, and I'm glad the war is over. [43:08] But how wars end matters, and this makes America less safe, and the region. [43:13] So, Kevin, you hear from the administration, though, oh, but we're energy independent. [43:18] Why doesn't that argument work? [43:20] Well, we both import and export oil. [43:22] Margaret, we're connected to the global market, and so it matters what the price is for petroleum everywhere in the world. [43:27] And when it's short, it affects us. [43:28] It affects us not just because of the oil that we produce a lot of, and frankly, [43:32] U.S. exports have been a very big part of keeping the price down for everybody in the world. [43:37] No, it's also that because the products that are made from oil have been short, [43:41] the gasoline and diesel fuel that we use on American roads depend on import flows as well. [43:46] And so, for optimizing the efficiency of our system, we have both imports and exports. [43:50] We would not want to live on an energy island. [43:52] It would be a very expensive place. [43:54] Amos, I want to get to your expertise having handled Lebanon. [43:58] Point one in this deal says that there will be an immediate and permanent termination of military operations, including in Lebanon. [44:06] Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel are not part of these negotiations. [44:10] This seems to be a concession to Iran. [44:14] Well, it is, but it's a very big one because it's more than what it just says. [44:19] What we have tried in successive administrations has been to say Iran is not in control of Lebanon. [44:27] Any decisions on Lebanon, you know I negotiated there for a long time, [44:30] will be decided between Israel, the United States, and Lebanon, not Iran. [44:35] This essentially gives authority to Iran over what happens in Lebanon. [44:41] And that is a huge concession to Iran and a big blow to the government of Lebanon. [44:46] And now what's happening is it's extending Hezbollah's support among the political support in Lebanon when it was reeling. [44:54] The vast majority of Lebanese wanted Hezbollah out. [44:57] They wanted this water over. [44:58] And the two things that have made Hezbollah popular is, one, Israel sort of overplaying its hand and occupying large parts [45:05] and saying they'll never withdraw from what it's called now the yellow line. [45:09] And the United States saying that Iran is now in control of the fate of Lebanon. [45:14] And those talks here in D.C. is scheduled still to take place this week. [45:20] Gentlemen, thank you. [45:21] We'll be right back. [45:25] Quick update from Congressman Crowe that he says he meant modern military history, not U.S. military history. [45:30] That's it for all of us. [45:32] But before we go, happy Father's Day to my dad, my husband, my father-in-law, and all of you out there. [45:37] For Face the Nation, I'm Margaret Brennan.