NIFTY & BANK NIFTY Analysis for Tomorrow — Stock Market Outlook — 31 July 2026, Friday

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: yesterday we said market is unlikely to fall we still think it's a buy on dips opportunity we are still sticking with put bull put spreads of august index paris as a trade and any dip is a long side entry opportunity which kind of play kind of need which played out today because it dipped all the way to 24 200 which is hardly a dip 250 points maybe and then it went up and now it's a positive candle again then the reason is very simple right despite everything that is happening between iran and angle market is not really caring about whatever is happening there and india usually is very sensitive to crude the fact that something that is hypersensitive to crude is apparently not really caring about crude is making me wonder whether we are missing something right and as we speak snb has recovered from yesterday's lows nasdaq has recovered from yesterday's uh lows i think there's one more pump coming now right so nifty also should play along anyway big ipos are still left no way market will go down before the big ipos fully pump right um but before we get started we'll wait for some more time uh as key data cover is saying how to join crop firm um i think you have to make some kind of a track record and go to them like i don't know your context as key data cover what are you are you like a graduate are you a postgraduate are you studying somewhere depending on all of that there are different different answers to you know your question but if you are still studying probably i mean if you make a proper track record and go to a prop fund it's very difficult for them not to take you with the pnl statement right so i that's what i'll try to do if i were you but then i'm not you so hypothetical question anyway so now the question is how where are we going next so today nifty is positive candle bank nifty is a little tricky but i would still say this is a dragonfly doji with a negative rejection wick at the bottom so nifty forming a small green candle bank nifty forming a dragonfly doji with a rejection wick at bottom that normally means strength but what's also paying playing on my mind is the fact that um there is some kind of a resistance here is it like a hanging man into resistance or is it like a bullish hammer bar dragonfly doji into support because there's support below this resistance above it's a little tricky with bank nifty but because we are at the end of the week it's better to look at weekly candle so weekly candle of bank nifty is a bullish harami cross weekly candle of nifty is a strong marbozu invalidated last week week's red candle nifty weekly candle marbozu area bank nifty bank nifty weekly candle yes hammer hammer yes hammer hammer right my god i don't know why i have that weird habibi accent but okay um and let's look at monthly candle monthly candle is a bullish harami getting confirmed in bank nifty and uh i mean kind of a um doji in uh bank nifty so nifty monthly candle positive candle confirming confirming the last month's confirming last candle bullish harami [00:04:18] Speaker 2: actually last actually last month's bullish harami candle [00:04:29] Speaker 1: and bank nifty also is a it's a recovery candle bank nifty is red i agree but it could have been much worse it was almost looking like a bearish uh piercing at one point so bank nifty forming doji after recovery so there's nothing in the chart that suggests any weakness right [00:05:11] Speaker 2: i'll try to make it as dark as i can is it too dark [00:05:20] Speaker 1: oh but i have to oh somebody had sent me a plugin [00:05:29] Speaker 2: one second actually dark reader this is the one dark reader for chrome add to chrome add extension and i'm going to put this yep i think this does it so i'll just change this to change this to sorry i want to change this too [00:06:10] Speaker 1: this is okay right i'm guessing this is okay my only worry is yeah pin it this is fine this is fine this is also fine okay so we are good with okay so now let's go to option chain yeah 24 300 and below is a big support i don't think there are any big resistances this is still 24 500 pcrs 1.01 around atm 1.3 overall so that's that's interesting uh it's strong but it's not overheated it overheated would be 1.4 at least that's where i draw the line those extensions read my data that is a problem but the good news is i don't really do anything sensitive in this browser so it's okay i mean i don't now let's look at participant option data actually it's very tricky the supply chain attacks and all which happen on ai uh side but i don't think it has reached here yet so participant option data fii is bullish pro is bearish client is bullish but that's it's very muted right not a significant activity no significant activity everything is like some 15 000 change in options change i don't want to call it something when it is nothing because look at this right this is just 18 000 net 18 000 call sell 36 000 put sell so it's practically nothing yeah this is also 13 000 call sell 13 000 put by um client is also bought call and bought put so there's no significant uh anything but but futures fi i bought but futures fii bought in futures fii bought 3000 crores in cash 3600 crores in cash uh buy figures last two days big buy figures last two days right not buy figures so what's the verdict let's go to everybody else so snb is obviously up today nasdaq is up today small cap cap caps took a little bit of a dip but nothing substantial dollars at 95.60 indian 10 year bond is at 6.8 dollar index surprisingly fell gold is zooming up so again we have been talking about this this looks like a very interesting point to do some kind of a long entry in gold but the only question is i don't know if i want to build a long-term portfolio uh because i'm expecting uh because i'm expecting gold to have a 10 year of hardly any return but then may they expect can they secure there right silver also looks like a interesting zone but i don't want to buy silver here because i'm not sure gold has a very high chance of a bounce till 40 4300 maybe um us 10 year uh yields are up today uh so down today tlt and edv are flat after opening a little low dtla which is a very same thing and crude oil is now somewhat fluttering around 84 levels bitcoin is slightly up so what is our verdict look man i mean very simply put there is anything uh which uh suggests there is bearishness in the market yet um nikonj is saying i did not say ricked corrupt eliminate okay i'm not going to say any of them today you know um a mobile says what is expiry management so in case a lot of fias etc have or big people have sold a lot of um options and if they also control equity bar sip flows um see it's like this right let's say that you are mal lao option trading company and i am like mal low option uh equity investing company and mal lao and malo are sister con concerns which are founded by friends or brothers or both of them have a same boss or both have same politician doing binami through them something right so let's say mal uh lao option trading company sold a lot of 24 000 uh calls for july end and then suddenly uh market is turning and malo is a big participant in market and they want to buy equity so obviously mal lao option short company which has shorted 24 000 call will tell malo of equity investment company which is a huge amc whatever he buy egg then took job please don't screw me on expiry you want to buy stock it's okay buy it like one day after expiry please wait for one day can happen right i'm not that's not a conspiracy that's a very logical thing if i i would do if i am a fund manager with uh enough you know uh clout in the market so yeah i think that's like that's what they'll do this is not a conspiracy theory this is a logical thing to do so i hope i haven't violated nikon's theory that i didn't give any conspiracy theory today mike ratasky is asking what is my name kind of late in the day too you know figure that out so then the question becomes what do we do with all this going on i still think market is going so i'll be long the market till a reversal signal comes this is my one liner market likely to go up further till a genuine reversal signal signal comes uh there is gap at 25 100 that could be one eventual target i don't know maybe 24 600 24 by 100 i don't know it can stretch all the way till there so nothing changes for us i still think it is still a buy on dips market but i won't do portfolio building and all because see the good thing about options is that eight bar you take a stop loss you're like okay sorry i'm out and it ends there but if you buy a stock and you're stuck with it you're stuck with it till your children say are my father bought like this stock 20 years back if he had only put a stop loss so i won't build an equity portfolio here because i think we are doing that you know one last dance before the petrol pump blows up all that thing but yeah i would strongly suspect we might head a little higher right um i know maybe 20 is there a trend line here no even this is like yeah this is not a trend line but see there is a gap here 24 9 80 24 25 to 25 100 kind of getting a sense that it might go up further so i think i'll play for that right and that most likely we are going to do that um when to start building portfolio by i don't think the time is now because uh what do you see right now which is a growth theme in india i'm not very clear or in the world it's like the entire world is sitting on the ai bubble to burst so i don't know what's the fallout of that how badly are we going to be hit so so yeah i don't think nse ipos mid august is it okay u.s iran war has to stop before we initiate shots yes i totally agree i think the war will stop also and then something else will happen but there is a multiple people in multiple geographies have been telling me there is a tsunami coming i am like waiting on the beach but i'm not seeing any but i think there is something coming the all classic signs of it bigger like dude there is a okay i can't say anything because there is an establishment somewhere near the place i was born which is nothing but a small place of entertainment for young children even things like that are going into ipo right boss like s2 like i am pretty sure that we are probably having a bigger top line than many companies which i've viewed recently on sme um i don't know man like it's like promoters are dumping stocks on people who will think you know it's crazy so oh all market tv is bullish boss sabko mal chip kanaya obviously they'll chip cow for it right so it looks like people are trying to dump everything um so i'm not very comfortable uh building a pp water bottle this is a jaspal bhatti show yeah munish jain is asking other than fii selling what's my major reason for indian market to go down yeah my ultra question is what is your big reason for indian market to go up or for any market to go up right so uh am i sure the crash will come in near future see dude there's no such thing called sure in the market because if there was something called sure a lot many more people would be no but let's say see it doesn't matter what i say right it matters what i do so i have never put a single penny in equity since 2023 and i'm absolutely happy with that decision um i mean i have extremely large exposure to a micro cap company uh which is a large part of my more than 70 percent of my portfolio but uh other than that i have sorry that is sensible that's a micro company i'm talking about but other than that i have no equity exposure so regardless of what i say what i believe in is that there is no positive returns coming on equity for quite some time right and in case i get a call from any significant uh tv channel or mutual fund or government department or something saying boss stop please stop saying this then i can confirm to you boss there's a crash coming right but um unfortunately i am uh not uh yeah a dk saying only losers a lot of losers sold bitcoin at 125k just saying um at a lot of losers sold all indian it stocks uh probably six uh months back right a lot of losers sold yes bank at around 400 price so you know you know where this is going but my uh point is um this doesn't look nice no portfolio building market might just pump a little bit more but yeah don't you want exactly one stock of in total no i own like five stocks of in total because i thought maybe you need five to get that discount but we only needed one but anyway so that is our analysis for today we'll see you again on sunday