NIFTY & BANK NIFTY Analysis for Tomorrow — Stock Market Outlook — 21 October 2026, Wednesday

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: this let me just wait for a couple of minutes because we are starting a little early people might not be aware of this starting so early so i'll wait for a couple of minutes hang around have some notifications so and do for sorry before we get started with anything happy the sera to everybody who's watching [00:00:48] Speaker ?: so [00:01:10] Speaker 1: okay so let's get started so first things first so nifty unexpectedly did some uh resistance here but i suppose it was this swing low which did the trick um slight dip but i won't be overly worried about this also our theta boys theory again worked i didn't want to believe it because it was three day theta doesn't matter theta boys always get screwed i think that's a great lesson we have to learn now there is a bearish engulfing on nifty right so and there's a hanging man getting confirmed on bank nifty so i'll write both of it down bearish engulfing on nifty and there is a hanging man getting confirmed on bank nifty both daily time frame of course weekly time frame is a very different story because weekly um weekly we know last week was strong in bank nifty and there are moving averages supporting bank nifty a lot of things which is um also uh bullish harami getting confirmed on bank nifty i'm not very worried about the weekly time frame but yes daily time frame is not a great candle right so i'm just going to pause there not a great candle but um as you know both i mean bearish engulfing usually takes a um confirmation candle so it's not really bearish engulfing till tomorrow we have a week close now let's look at option chain but then it's only the expiry so no oi formed because expiry was last trading session again no i formed because expiry was last trading session let's look at participant option data no meaning because no trading after expiry but we'll have futures data and cash data very clearly right so if i sold thousand crores in future thousand crores in cash thousand cr plus in futures sell sell thousand cr plus in cash sell so before we go to verdict we'll quickly look at other markets so s p was down yesterday but it's getting up today nasdaq was also down yesterday but bullish harami getting formed this week um as you can see it's uh bullish engulfing on s p bullish engulfing on nasdaq dollar is flat indian 10-year bond took a little bit of a beating but then it's a bullish engulfing at the top of an uptrend i'm not very worried here also gold is flat us 10-year bonds 20-year bonds pld edv everything has rallied in fact edv the us bond which is the longest duration has jumped up almost eight percent since 7th october and that is mental this kind of stuff does not happen casually um so if this is some sort of reverse market it has some extremely serious implications for global economy it just means people are like bhaiya deko we are shifting to bonds when people say bhaiya deko we are shifting to bonds at a global scale to the point the longest duration government bond in us jumps eight percent that etf there is uh something unusual happening here crude surprisingly after it went up so much on um monday has sharply reversed um yeah this is friday friday it was up a lot but now it's properly reversing this gap fill is playing out let's see how far it plays out right so um and also gift nifty is showing up but let's not go by that because anything can happen so so let's get to our wording right gift indicating up move number one uh if the bearish engulfing on monday is invalidated expect up move that may last 23 300 plus if tomorrow's close if tomorrow's close is below monday close then bearish engulfing gets confirmed and we are in for more downside the more likely scenario is a bounce to 23 300 plus okay i have this conspiracy theory okay see bro right i live in bangalore i love bombay i personally think it's the best city in india um i really love the people of bombay i think it's people of bombay are one of the most hard working great work ethic you know i haven't even seen people cut lanes in traffic in bombay right and it's an absolute pleasure to see how much people uh believe in civility and politeness and cooperation and you know work ethic and you know like if you go to delhi uh a rich guy doesn't have to tell you that he's rich right if you go to bombay it's impossible to make out it's rich in bangalore it is easy to find out if somebody is very rich he'll be buying driving like an auto or something pretending to be ultra poor right that is south bangalore's jaynagar culture but bombay it's like really confusing i i can never spot a rich dude in bombay dude it's crazy like i i had a dude who had like a 25 crore apartment uh in bombay in 2010 and a 25 000 25 crore apartment in 2010 is a big deal and bhai sab used to take one rupee change after buying candy after you know he used to smoke he'll buy one uh i think there's a green thing right what was it called here it's called minto fresh some candy he used to have and he'll take one rupee change actually i think the cigarette was eight rupee that thing was uh one rupee and he'll give a 10 and take a like and bhai sab has a 25 crore flat right the people are like you can't guess from him right and drives like a very non-descript car no bens wins and all some random honda types but that is bombay but anyway i really love bombay i really love the people of bombay some of my nicest friends are in bombay but if you ask me to go to bombay now i won't go to bombay because the air quality right now is terrible the traffic is really play right um and um real estate is expensive hotels are super pricey if you want to stay in a nice hotel it will burn a hole hole in your pocket so you have to go live in andery or something so even for a person who's living in bangalore like me if you tell me to chumma go to bombay without any serious work and just go meet my friends i'll say no do listen i really love them at all i don't want to go to bombay i'm very happy in bangalore now imagine marco rubio he lives in washington it's one of the nicest places on earth to live and he's right now has come to bombay and he's staying in bombay voluntarily and i refuse to believe that there is some major trade roll trade what's the trade deal announcement is not going to happen after this visit i simply cannot fathom if there was no trade deal why would somebody who lives in such a nice city come all the way to bombay just to say hi just to explore possibilities and no bro you will take a zoom call no but he is coming to bombay he is going to jamnagar there is something going to happen this is my conspiracy theory again this is not advice this is not recommendation this is not sebi registered you know everything but i'm saying ki yeah no dude like i can't believe oh somebody's saying crude turned green by the time i finished uh yeah maybe it is ready was it 95 now it is at 97 like potato potato right but so i think there is some reason why marco rubio is here there is something they are going to announce right um like yeah they are going to announce some random you know thing in um if nothing else they'll announce the fake uh trade deal like there'll be like some half ass um trade deal and they'll put it out like some full-blown trade deal and market might jump so there is a possibility of some kind of jump happening in market because of this trade deal i don't know why it will happen who's behind it who's going to make money i'm not going to say any of it just jinko samaj na hai wo samaj le apne shradda ke right um so yeah there is a tail risk of a jump in nifty just because this dude is here right so on that because of that reason so basically if uh tomorrow we have a strong close i will not short this market because tomorrow's uh if even if that uh if tomorrow we have positive close um market is strong if tomorrow if we close above friday high sorry monday high expect short covering and a target of 23 300