NIFTY & BANK NIFTY Analysis for Tomorrow — Stock Market Outlook — 02 November 2026, Monday

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: the analysis we'll wait for a couple of minutes before we have more people coming and then we'll get started in earnest all right let's get started so oh god i can't believe i'm saying this i can't believe i said this we talked about bull call spreads or bull put spreads being the good trade i still don't know how this is going to work but did we absolutely miss time the pump is there still a pump left see in the long run i don't have any hopes okay but in the short run what if there is a pump left so okay so let's focus on nifty right see if it had to break if it did not break last time it had a chance then i don't think it's going to break anytime soon it might eventually break but the odds of that is lower nifty has firmly taken a support and it is a second bounce see if it if you happy i would have been somewhat doubtful because first bounce right it can be a scammy bounce but this is not a uh so imagine this way let's say somebody dropped the bowl sorry ball layer what am i talking about what kind of action is somebody dropped the ball and if it bounces back right um the first bounce will somewhat be high and it'll come down but if the second bounce is higher than the first bounce we can't assume that uh you know it is just bouncing from the floor right we have to assume that somebody is throwing back because laws of gravity laws of friction law of conservation of energy a lot of stuff would agree that look if the second bounce is higher than the first bounce then it is not bounce it's something else so if we have a higher high than 23 200 coming which is very very likely now boss this is not a bounce this was a bounce this is not a bounce so let's just i don't want to be short given that this is so i've always been saying i don't want to be short but i only had the conviction to be slightly long now so i'll give you multiple theories why i won't be long here short here see first of all this was a bearish uh uh piercing or what fancy people call dark cloud cover right the dark cloud cover did not work right and it got invalidated i mean technically the pure invalidation is uh 23 160 but the more important thing is it did not confirm and it bounced off a support and the dark clock cloud cover is normally formed at the top of an upper so wrong false signal dark cloud cover formed at the bottom of a downtrend not getting confirmed with a bullish piercing now i mean technically this candle would have been piercing if it opened below the low so the classical definition of piercing is the open has to be below the low of this candle but it's below the body so i mean it's how it's not a classical uh bullish piercing okay because it should have opened below the low of the previous candle but we have what we have but this is a very nice strong bounce candle it's not some random candle bank nifty is not as optimistic as nifty but nifty is definitely definitely looking strong so nifty weekly candle is a bullish candle if the previous high and the exact number is 23 160 odd of 23 150 to 23 200 zone goes away we are in for a stronger valley at that point i won't call it a bounce i would call it a decent buying interest right that is true amiv kritik says bro check your will i haven't seen the mail unfortunately a lot of the mails i get um go into my spam i have to check my spam more often i will do that thank you paul thank you we'll keep doing more videos on ivy some deal happened between qatar and iran we'll come to that also bank nifty has a green candle so i don't know if it is any candle okay because see for it to be any candle it has to have like what is this is nothing it's not a harami because the body is not within the other body it's not a piercing it's not an engulfing it's nothing it's a it's a doji it's an indecision candle but we have to be cognizant of the fact that there have been multiple um so let's forget this gigantic head and shoulder for a bit but it's kind of hard to not see this support here and the head and shoulder is not getting confirmed ideally the head and shoulder would have been confirmed if we closed below this uh 53 500 odd level but it's not happening so this is not a weak bank nifty either right ril is going to black blast tomorrow so nifty strong bullish ompom is asking am i serious about ai job loss i'll come to that okay i'll talk about some stuff about ai yeah my god like people who have absolutely no literacy about i don't see i don't consider myself an extreme expert on technology or anything but you know i i'm surrounded by people who are that and all of them come on a call with me and said say boss we are dead right so don't don't trust me but i i promise you people around me are really smart and they are saying we are dead and i don't know what to say but anyway coming back to um market wheel check open interest but i yeah it's very strong open interest is very strong 23 000 is a solid support 23 000 is a good support right and pcr is pcr is a little over heated one plus around atf 1.6 overall a little overbought 1.6 is a little overbought to be very honest this is a little overbought but look at the texture sorry the uh distribution of this open option chain right there's nothing no resistance at all all the way to 23 500 and that's a that's very telling whereas 23 000 23 22 900 800 700 everything has supports here so i don't think this open interest is going to break anytime soon and i'll be very surprised if the fii data doesn't agree with this and it disagrees with it okay why change fii and pro bearish client client bullish now let's look at participant future data still short fii sold under 500 cr in futures if i bought 3500 crore in cash somebody please tell me this is a block deal please tell me this is a block deal 23 800 incoming says i won't be surprised i won't be surprised at all say gold here i think gold will go to 3300 to be very honest i mean gold silver we kept saying let's short let's short let's short i didn't short i hope some of you shorted and made money please tell me you guys shorted silver or gold dipangar it's my name at sensible uh dot com the whole point of uh you know getting starting your company is to get your first name as email [00:10:01] Speaker ?: block deal [00:10:07] Speaker 1: block deal there is a block deal what block deal is that okay we'll also look at now let's look at benan cl usdt okay 102 so it's down from fridays 104 but it's still up there so let's look at all of the markets small cap is down mid cap is down but on the weekly candles you can see that this is not bad at all both small cap and mid cap look strong on weekly candles usd inr is sub 95 now iron 10 year bond is at 740 uh gold see i mean i'll be very surprised if we don't see 35 3500 to 3300 maybe there will be a temporary respite here we have to see what happens at that point now silver is down six percent and we had drawn this and it uh broke that and like an idiot i kept watching without shorting i don't know what was going on in my head at 58 i remember our regular man governor and i used to have so many conversations about bro a line a line and a line and a line came and like idiots we just watched uh us 10 year yield is below five and that's a very big headline because at this point everybody was saying the world is coming to an end at 540 see how quickly so if if you want perspective on this 50 point drop in us uh bond yield 50 basis points 0.5 percent uh edv went up like seven eight percent so we are talking about some crazy crazy appreciation in a bond when this happens in a long duration bond uh so yeah so what is it that we are planning to do again gradual is saying six billion dollar hdr i don't know if it's a height or something else okay 982 crore block deal in swiggy oh i see um i can't believe swiggy fell from 280 to 180 like i remember i had done some intraday gambling on swiggy bought it around 270 and sold around 285 felt like such a hero and then i realized the trade to do was to short it at 280 which i did not do my god it was so stupid but anyway coming back um so what's our verdict right uh but a lot of people are asking about a but so let me just share my perspective on a right not that it matters because i'm not an ai expert but i'll give you some hint see i was for some reason some extreme believer in ai in 2022 or 2023 like i definitely three four maybe by four i was remembering i was even uh doing my itineraries with ai i i was asking uh you know uh like i have a lot of projects going on ai i used i have used ai to compile uh legal notices to reply to legal notices to help draft some kind of a financial uh policy guideline for the parliament i have used ai to manage all my health and my family's health i have used ai uh to work on my hobby weekend car project i have used ai to create a website to monitor vitals of my entire family i have used ai to do a candlestick detection project uh maybe i should open source it now i have used ai to uh do the prototype for that candle uh stick based algo trading think our first version website for us uh my team writes code only using ai now claude code there's no engineer in our team who doesn't use ai we had 40 people which is our highest highest strength in so we don't have sales we don't have operations we don't have anything other than engineering it's a choice we made so we have a we had a 40 people strong team in 2023 and uh people used to leave for whatever reason so we have a policy of not firing people because unless people do something really really wrong right like you have to really put in some serious effort to be asked to leave from sensible is my understanding but sometimes people go for better opportunities but what has happened for us is when somebody leaves because they found something better to do we have never replaced anybody and just like that um our team strength reduced from 40 to 30 and even now we know that we have more people than we need but we won't fire but we know like basically there is so much more we are getting done with so fewer people and see we are a very lean team right like see imagine this um if you think uh microsoft or an oracle or an infosys is a brown is a brontosaurus who eats uh 10 000 burgers a day right sensible is the opposite lean team of that we are so lean that like how do i put it we are probably so in china there are something called fat camps if you are fat you can go join the camp and they literally starve you right they won't give you food they'll restrict your calorie to the point you'd lose weight it's like a jail it's a fat jail right so we are so lean that if microsoft looks like a brontosaurus which eats one million burgers a day we are somebody who spent three years straight in a chinese um fat camp right we have lost so much weight that we look like people coming out of a we look like uh christian bale in that movie where he's just all you know uh skin that despite being that lean after ai 25 percentage of our team is gone and we are still thinking it was we have too many people now right now imagine the average and see that we are not doing dumb it work right we are doing slightly smart i'm not i'm not claiming to do smart it work at all but we are doing slightly to the words the right side of the median of the bell curve in terms of what we do and now imagine all the it companies that you can think of yeah the mechanic that's the movie that is what we are talking about and see i no longer go to a physio because ai i no longer have a lawyer because ai i think my accountant is probably the best accountant i've seen so far ai catches nuances in tax law which he sometimes misses right um ai caught a loophole in a tax law which the foremost authority of india's tax which i who i can't name because you know us go uh defame but even that dude did not know the nuance of a particular segment in indian tax and i forget that i asked a couple of people who are in the item income tax department they could not point out to the exact nuance and they i caught that right and i so i'm talking about um so we use claude opus on it i mean we can switch the model but i'm saying that if anybody thinks this is not real it's going to be an extremely rude awakening i dude i i people are thinking i am saying this because i am not worried for my job right but the point is um see i know all of us will lose our jobs and there's a hierarchy of losing our jobs like people who are writing copy will go first people who are paralegals paramedics etc who are do not doing physical work might go first then comes low level coders then comes mid-level coders then comes high level coders then comes product managers then comes people like me i'm also getting going to get fired thanks to an ai i talked to another friend of mine in silicon valley dude has 10 companies running all whose employees are ai agents right and yes last week he appointed another ai agent as the ceo of that company and that each of those 10 companies make something like 100 a day like imagine it right like he has just got 10 absolutely hype imaginary companies with ai bots as employees with ai bot as ceo and he's making 100 a day with these 10 like he's just one dude sitting in uh silicon valley with a laptop right and side project i mean he has a real job in the real company but he just wanted to mess around with the system so he founded 10 companies with ai employees each of those 10 companies make 100 a day so you can do the math it's it's mental boss like and people are thinking this is not real i mean this is actually like that dude chills while his bank account gets 100 a day from 10 different companies that's thousand dollars a day seven thousand dollars a week and 28 000 sorry yeah 28 000 a month that's 300 000 a year right like how many people do you know who actually make 300 000 a year 10 imaginary ai companies put together make more than quarter million dollar a year so you know oh my god i think i have to talk to that dude and ask him bro please tell me how you made these companies and i'll ask him to teach me probably i can also make 300 000 a year right but but this is the thing which i'm talking about so this is real this is so going to happen so what our portfolios will be impacted by i think the larger picture for this stock market right is see if a lot of people lose jobs and there are roughly 800 million knowledge workers in the world that is probably 10 percentage of the world's population i don't know what percentage of their jobs will be automated away and if 800 million knowledge workers may as even a 10 job loss among those 800 million uh knowledge workers has profound implications on world economy and i'm not saying this is recession or drawdown or dip right i'm talking about something world changing matrix movie because script as i call it happening in front of our eyes so if this happens a lot of people will lose jobs if a lot of people will lose jobs they won't have money to spend if they don't have money to spend companies can't sell them stuff if companies can't sell them stuff companies profits will reduce if their profits reduce they have to lay off more people their share price goes down this becomes a spiral so which is see with this thing looming you cannot be overly optimistic about any of the current uh automatable industries in the i forget automatable industries right if a lot of people see look at bangalore if ai play gets harder all of bangalore real estate is going to face severe difficulties so if you are planning to put money in real estate indices reit real estate companies so many of them are lifted listed auto right because people buy cars when they have money mostly in this part of the world at least it employees are the single biggest driver of cars so you get the meta right this has profound implication of stocks your portfolio what the world will look like in the next five years blah blah blah like i i am saying this is because i talked to a lot of people who saw one free version of chat gpt and assume this is not a threat if you take the latest frontier model the highest most expensive paid version your opinion is going to dramatically get a very bad hit right so um the point is uh yeah you get the point so forget all that so now the question is what do you do with nifty nifty for now despite everything that i'm seeing looks strong there's no escaping it if nifty breaks 23 200 also then please expect a higher push too so uh verdict nifty will test 23 200 likely if that breaks let's see where it is going this is the gap 23 600 gap bearish now only below that's a very far away target but 23 500 i don't think there's any bearishness till the support breaks trades holding holding actually i took both i took both bull call spreads and will put spreads for number second number express as in the not the first weekly the second weekly expiry oh this we have said earlier so that is our trade to um you know uh run with this so that is our analysis for today we'll see you again tomorrow thank you so much for joining