NFP SHOCK, Bitcoin $70K Next? & Historic Yen Intervention

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: holiday highs bitcoin shrugs off strategy selling and the death of the clarity act as markets across the board show signs of strength yen moon the us and japan stage a rare joint intervention to strengthen the yen as concerns mount that japan may force an unwind in the bond market and we'll have geordie with the ta tweets of the week dates for your diary and much more besides this is the coin bureau news live yes this is indeed coin bureau news live welcome everyone it is great to see you as another week grinds into gear and i am very pleased to be rejoined uh by nick once [00:00:56] Nick: again nick good to see you again sir great man glad to be back i'm seeing i see lewis took over keen last week so glad to be on the stream with you again today we had a great discussion last [00:01:08] Speaker 1: week very much enjoyed doing it uh doing it with lewis so nick you've got to have you step up and give us your a game today um to put all those put all those people who saying why doesn't lewis do it [00:01:19] Nick: more often you've got to keep them well rested and ready to ready to roll bring the fire excellent [00:01:26] Speaker 1: excellent that's fighting talk um i do have issue with the uh with the red lamp behind you that would suggest yes as liz pointed out lighting suggests nick is bearish uh so i'd be interested to hear why [00:01:40] Nick: there we go i'm bipolar i'm bipolar today it's a bipolar market i'm bullish and buried at the same [00:01:47] Speaker 1: time started the bull market cautiously bullish that's what we like to hear great okay so um this week as uh as you saw in the uh in the headlines there a lot to discuss from last week it was pretty busy despite uh being the first week of august which is generally you know historically quite a quiet time for markets and there wasn't actually that much data last week but it was still a pretty eventful week for markets and um yeah it was a good week for crypto generally as well uh all things considered so we'll be talking about that then we're going to dig into what this whole business with the yen is all about um nick i'm looking forward to your insights on this one um given your given your expertise in that area and of course we'll have all the usual features as well before we start though as you can see there's a there's a like status bar down there um hit that like status bar and so i don't know something nice will happen if we get if we get a good bunch of numbers um not quite sure what it is yet what's our target first of all uh this is bear [00:02:52] Nick: market man this is bear market territory our expectations have capitulated yeah substantially since the bull market uh if we get to 100 likes i don't know then the audience can tell us at the end if we get to 100 likes and they can let us choose they can choose for us what we wear in the stream next [00:03:08] Speaker 1: week how about that sounds good sounds good all right get to 100 likes and uh and you guys then call the shots on uh on how we dress next week gosh at the high stakes there especially given so some of our regular viewers i can't i can't imagine that ending well for either of us um but uh okay well let's see then so don't forget to hit that like button folks and uh well let's kick it off let's look at uh let's start with monday last week as we always do and that again as we're going to talk about this in a bit more detail we won't linger on this but the week began with this historic yen intervention a joint move from the us and japan which isn't quite unprecedented but is very rare um the first one in a very long time uh they intervened to basically prop up the yen uh against the dollar um and uh the ultimate aim of this was to stabilize the bond uh the bond market uh but as i say we will get back to that shortly but that was what kicked off the week and uh in crypto more specifically uh we also had a kick off to the week with strategy selling um sailor and co unloaded 1638 btc for just over a hundred million dollars fortunately [00:04:26] Nick: though the market went and uh and carried on yeah exactly just fully expected man i think and there was an addition an additional sale today which we'll get to in a bit which also doesn't seem to have impacted the market at all on tuesday uh though coming back to the yen intervention what's really interesting here is that uh treasury secretary scott besant discovered that actually his firepower you know his size wasn't size and he decided i need to get the fed in here as well so essentially what he requested what he suggested and urged was that the fed would allow the japanese uh you know the japanese government to utilize the fed's fema dollar lending facility so it's a dollar swap facility which would allow uh them to directly lend the dollars without having to sell their their bonds or their government the u.s government bonds which again is something we'll come to in the discussion of the yen in a bit [00:05:22] Speaker 1: okay um and then also we had uh yet more talk of a uh of a potential um well this was this was a deal [00:05:31] Nick: around uh around the yen right no no this is uh apparently the treasury secretary talking about a deal was it with the yen sorry what are they are we got a long wrong link here i think this was um is [00:05:45] Speaker 1: it about the end i thought oh no this is three to four moves this is yeah yeah sorry there have been so [00:05:50] Nick: many deals around the straightforward moves treasury secretary scott bestings deal maker last week he was all over the show um but apparently this came on tuesday which is quite interesting is he said that in the next 24 to 48 hours there will be a deal that's announced in iran which will fully open the strait of wormuz yes yes i'm sure uh of course well the markets of course as per usual like goldfish took this as a sign that the that the markets were going to they rallied and as a result of it the s p 500 hit all-time highs oil crashed uh so yeah the markets took this as a sign that now we can finally [00:06:27] Speaker 1: be bullish thank you uh sir best yeah yeah well we'll see how that turned out but um also on tuesday spacex reported its first earnings as a public company and actually crushed it uh they did really well everything was sort of moving in the right direction um starlink uh starlink had way more subscribers revenue was up um up 92 percent in fact um but there were concerns around uh around spending as well [00:06:57] Nick: exactly and this is something that we've seen over the past month when it came to results from a lot of these hyperscalers like results that were beats by many uh by many measures record revenues record growth margin strong but because of the extent and the size of the spend the markets reacted negatively to that and spacex is no exception where it was crashing in the pre-market uh you saw spacex collapsing far [00:07:25] Speaker 1: below the the ipo price yeah yeah so even though even though good news for spacex it couldn't hold the stock up um meanwhile we also had that day uh us adp employment payrolls um rose they didn't rise very much but they did rose uh right i should say they didn't um they didn't hit the forecast um but uh it [00:07:47] Nick: was some reasonably good news nonetheless yeah a potential precursor to what we would see uh in the nfp uh and then on thursday uh we was revealed that trump actually regularly speaks to kevin wash calls him up regularly to ask his opinion on everything from the iran war uh to uh the ai ai and how that's impacting the job market and to his thoughts on who really vandalized the reflecting pool [00:08:17] Speaker 1: not the last one oh i would imagine the last one definitely definitely that's the sort of [00:08:23] Nick: tangent that he would definitely be looking outside your window over there at the feds building did you manage to see who was putting the paint from have you heard anything has anybody [00:08:33] Speaker 1: said anything to you it's so bad has anybody said you you tell me right you tell me if you do right i bet uh i bet kevin wash loves loves it when that number flashes up on his phone i bet he's like oh [00:08:46] Nick: god here we go you know i've also heard stories that he literally doesn't care about people's sleep schedule either he's happy to call people at the he he calls for example the speaker of the house calls him at like 12 o'clock at night 1am basically just to have a to have a chat and all this so i'm [00:09:03] Speaker 1: sure he does the same with wash yeah two words for those guys airplane mode um however uh whilst we're on the topic of uh kevin wash we should say that he is uh he has said that he is open to raises open to raising rates in september if um the data comes in hot um and we'll have some context around that soon but yes so the rate hike discussion still very much on the table there from uh from kevin wash um which is probably about as much in the way of uh forward guidance as we're going to get from him [00:09:36] Nick: these days yeah yeah indeed and it seems as if well the probabilities for the rate hike had changed subsequent um post the nfp numbers which we'll get to in a bit um but of course now clarity was a lot of the last week was a very big week for clarity it was the final week with which they could take it to a floor vote in the senate and this was a lot of back and forth a lot of a lot of hopium was built into this week could we see a last minute a vote on it of course we knew there was a lot of a lot of resistance from the democrats because of the ethics provisions but apparently the opposition from the banks wasn't dead and they they pitched a last minute appeal to republicans and this was subsequently reported by punch bowl news in that the banks went straight to the republicans and again lobbied against [00:10:28] Speaker 1: that yield provision okay okay brought that back out of the box just in time um and that probably uh explains or helps explain what happened on friday um it was officially clarity was officially moved off the senate calendar until september so any any last shred of hopium that we might have had of getting that passed uh disappeared but i i think by that point you'd have had to be a real a real true believer uh to to think that uh that clarity had any hope there but yeah that was the end of it on friday [00:11:03] Nick: yeah it was uh now apparently the latest is that it's been pushed to a vote on i believe the 15th of september after the recess so they they take like a month-long recess over there on capitol hill so only after that will we potentially get a vote on clarity but right now the odds aren't looking too good because you've got opposition on the right from the banks and opposition on the left uh because of the ethics provision for donald trump uh our friday was also a big day because we had nfp numbers and and they were quite a shocker uh there was market was expecting 80 000 new net new non-farm jobs and they got a negative 23 case that the the economy lost 23 000 jobs uh in uh in july and as a result uh we had also not just that we also had revisions to previous uh numbers so we it was revised down by 103 000 jobs over [00:12:05] Speaker 1: uh may and june yeah so uh yeah it's sort of like hey not only is this month's data really bad um but a lot of the data from previous months is even worse uh than uh than we may have thought as [00:12:18] Nick: well yeah and you know what's crazy about it is if you recall back to last year guy at exact about this exact time about the summer you usually have these big revisions to previous numbers and uh at that time there was a big revision as well and you know what happened subsequent to that basically trump fired his bls uh commissioner and replaced and replaced her and now the same is happening so it's just wild [00:12:46] Speaker 1: wow so uh yes gosh was that a year ago it's a year ago that is nuts um but however uh although in conversely even though that was bad news the markets actually liked it um a lot because yields uh bond yield started collapsing gold started skyrocketing stocks started rising as well um all seemingly off the back of these nfp numbers and the the simple explanation for that is um that it makes a rate hike in september a lot less likely if if the labor market is under strain right yes in fact the uh probabilities of [00:13:25] Nick: that completely switched where whereas now it's more likely of uh more likely that we have no rate uh no rate hikes in september uh over the weekend though uh we had this is quite interesting uh so since michael bury uh called uh said back in 20 january 2023 that everyone should sell the s p 500 is now up more than 100 [00:13:56] Speaker 1: this is the guy whose sub stack is one of the most one of the most uh highest grossing out there right [00:14:02] Nick: it is the i think it's the highest grossing yeah uh just complete bear porn uh he's been calling uh the primo the most he called like what's it he's been calling a crisis or a crash for the past four or five years yeah and he's still calling one yeah this guy's moment was back when christian [00:14:22] Speaker 1: bale played him in the big short like that was it he peaked then like that's it you know there's there's [00:14:28] Nick: he's not coming back well some would say given the extent of his sub sub stack subscriptions he's he's still peaking it pays to be bearish man because bears sound smart and in this case bears also make money but not from short in the market obviously from from getting people to subscribe to hear him talk about why they should short the market but then still get liquidated by short squeezes that's how [00:14:53] Speaker 1: you make money as a bear don't actually short the market yourself just get everyone else to do it [00:14:59] Nick: all feared up and everything get them to sign up and subscribe and yeah anyways the um coming back to the iran deal which was supposedly supposed to happen according to scott besant by in quote 24 or 48 hours that was on tuesday uh it turned out that iran wasn't even speaking to the u.s they were talking directly with oman about potentially opening the straits they were still attacking vessels and then they came out with the conditions for just the preconditions for even considering open opening the straits and some of these conditions are absolutely wild i mean for example i i like the fact they firstly referred to the u.s is not quote correcting its behavior as if the u.s is a naughty child so that's one thing they stated they want all threats to end against iran they want um to be fully compensated uh for war damages lifting the sanctions uh unconditional release of funds end in the naval blockade end in military action in palestine lebanon yemen and iraq and leave in the middle east so basically asking for full and utter capitulation from the u.s i'm surprised [00:16:08] Speaker 1: they didn't ask them to throw in a few nuclear missiles as well i'm surprised they didn't ask [00:16:11] Nick: well and and in addition we'd like to have trump come to iran please and wash the feet of the supreme [00:16:17] Speaker 1: leader because that's what they're basically asking yeah it's crazy isn't it i i mean you've got you've got to admire that isn't it we just we just want here's everything we want and in return we might open the strait we might not yeah i mean charge people for it and we'll make it we'll make it way worse than before you even started um apparently though there is talk that trump is very much uh has very much tired of this this whole thing uh this whole catastrophic conflict uh that he unleashed um uh he said uh we are we are low-keying it with iran so employing a bit of gen z slang there um yeah we're just gonna locate which yeah it's a board of it chilled out [00:17:05] Nick: chilled out now let's get back to the story at hand who at who the hell via you know um vandalized the pool um yeah i mean and the wall street journal also reported that he's basically thinking about walking away the moment that iran opens the straits if they open the straits uh he's willing to walk away [00:17:23] Speaker 1: even without a nuclear deal wow wow there is the the ultimate deal maker um and also i should say um before we look at what's to come this week uh should uh nick you flag this up earlier as well going back to crypto again strategy has once again sold um this time about the same amount of bitcoin as last time [00:17:44] Nick: um bitcoin not reacting though uh so yeah that's a good sign it's holding up uh so what's to come this week uh well uh in terms of data we've got the cpi print and that's going to be important because of course it gives more indication of what could happen in the september fomc uh just quickly looking at some charts uh on the at bitcoin on the weekly uh this is my handy weekly chart you'll see that we're still managing to trade above the 200 week simple movement average so that's good we have we have a slow momentum behind us of course the key levels to recover are about the 15 month exponential moving moving average which is a and that potential zone of resistance which is between 67 to 71 k and this is actually more interesting this is bitcoin on the daily and you'll notice that we've been forming this long-term 10-month trend line from the all-time highs back in october uh and we tried to and we subsequently tried to break through this uh trend line back in may but rejected off of that level and it's now again managed to break out of this trend line on on the daily so that is a good sign that's that's a harbinger of potential things to come so i think that things are looking at looking up here guy [00:19:06] Speaker 1: if you say so nick i mean you know you you're the one with the green light on behind you so [00:19:11] Nick: there we go that's i said that's the that's the daily and that's the weekly [00:19:16] Speaker 1: okay i mean i think it is like you know given everything that's happened given the fact that uh that sailor is now is now cheating bitcoin into the market given the fact that clarity died on its ass um you know given sort of continuing geopolitical uncertainty i think the fact that uh bitcoin and you know eth uh as well basically haven't really moved i think that's you know i think that's more bullish than bearish i think that suggests that there is some underlying strength in the market that's [00:19:46] Nick: bullish the fact that you literally had clarity basically dying and sailors still selling and bitcoin hasn't reacted that much in fact hasn't moved at all in fact slightly up from last week that's a good sign and i think that uh he can continue selling in fact the market is just a relief now because there is some certainty around what's going on with strategies uh strategy in terms of with respect to their bitcoin holdings uh so i think that this is a good sign yeah yeah okay so that was the week and what we [00:20:19] Speaker 1: can look forward to um but if you're feeling bullish or bearish on bitcoin and you want a top tier international exchange to trade on then you have to check out our newest brand partner folks and that is two bit two bit is an international exchange they have a solid interface they have competitive fees deep liquidity and i should say it is very simple to onboard you just need an email address and with that you can create an account and explore the platform right away is that not correct nick indeed yep and [00:20:51] Nick: we also have up to potentially 90 000 in trading rewards available for members who exclusively sign up with the link below or the qr code as well as an immediate vip level one upgrade which is uh gives you 50 of trading fees for life so go and give it to but a try absolutely absolutely okay uh so [00:21:14] Speaker 1: before we move on let's just uh see what people are saying in the comments uh key and say fair play to iran i say i mean yeah like you know not not endorsing the iranian regime in any way but uh these guys have played a difficult hand uh very well so as they say to the victor goes the spoils yeah very much so um meanwhile uh muddy oak homestead which sounds incredibly wholesome uh says clarity act is unnecessary um now i think i think there may be a point here and i think maybe that is reflected in in the market basically shrugging it off because as i think we've discussed the sec and the cftc are both kind of working on rules independent of what happens on capitol hill now obviously agency guidelines agency rules can be overruled by you know a new incoming chair or a new incoming administration but regardless of what happens on capitol hill it looks like there will be some some rules for the crypto industry so yeah maybe maybe we've been attaching a bit too much [00:22:23] Nick: importance to the clarity act yeah i think it too many people had bottled up all their hope kim in this and i think that uh hopefully i mean look obviously like you say there will be these exemptions there will be some rule making and hopefully if we do have a new administration they don't take it out they may have their reservations about the crypto industry because of what happened with the trump administration but hopefully they don't they realize that uh cryptocurrency technology is is apolitical [00:22:52] Speaker 1: and it can be a force for good yeah yeah hopefully they realize that actually probably there are there are better things to be taking on than the crypto industry um keeps formats uh says uh this is regarding sailor bro is literally buying high and selling low i mean yeah it's absolute textbook of it um meanwhile 1804 crypto just says shite um i probably probably need a bit of context there [00:23:17] Nick: to context you've been missing some context here guys please i hope you're not talking about the [00:23:22] Speaker 1: talking about the stream 1804 refers to something you know maybe babies i would react failing yeah the [00:23:29] Nick: clarity of failing the the direction of the war please yeah i i don't know i quite like that shite [00:23:36] Speaker 1: um okay anyhow let's move on let's talk about um besant's yen bet um this is as we mentioned earlier at the top of the stream this is the intervention the joint intervention by the us and japan uh to prop up uh the jpy um and uh yeah that's us watching watching it happen in real time um once again the the the tolls of international forex trading are evident in your future two weeks ago it was memory chips that we [00:24:06] Nick: were trading and losing money on three weeks ago it was uh crypto uh prior to that it was spacex you know i think that we are the most unfortunate traders in the world when it comes to ai's imagination of us uh surprisingly surprisingly interesting uh although they again again the ai has decided to add 10 to 15 years on my on the way i look i don't know if it's basically just that's the perception of how what will look to look what i will look like after trading for all these years [00:24:39] Speaker 1: absolutely so um nick can you give us a bit of a rundown then on what exactly happened with this [00:24:45] Nick: intervention and why it was why it's a big deal yeah so it was a intervention with the u.s treasury and japan's ministry of finance and they bought to they intervened to buy yen and strengthen it against the u.s dollar so it was like i said it was the first joint intervention for over a decade and what's interesting here is because uh over at camp david uh the on the friday week prior uh besant had left a notepad open on his desk uh quite uh you know basically a notepad that had on it uh to do by japanese yen jpy uh five to ten billion uh so they said that this was an unintended leak i i happened to think it was done very intentionally uh knowing that they were going to be photographing it and this of course uh sent the market into into into a tizzy and uh then of course the japan's ministry of finance also confirmed the action and it was historic it was the first joint intervention of this kind they well and sent in over in over a decade and um it's also extremely rare it signals [00:25:52] Speaker 1: the depth of the concern in both governments yeah and we'll get to why uh why they're so concerned in just a moment but there is a kind of there is a slightly weird angle to this thing as well in that um the u.s sold euros to buy yen now normally the conventional approach would be uh in in a situation like this they would sell dollars in order to buy yen but no uh they sold euros um and a former treasury official uh by the name of edwin truman uh called this uh but weird and unwise um and he said that it makes more sense to sell dollars if the goal is to strengthen the yen versus the dollar um and it seemed like the industry read on it was selling dollars to buy yen would have directly reduced the dollar's value so using euros was a more politically cautious move um which i i sort of guess makes sense but perhaps the the most intriguing part of this is that they didn't bother to tell the european central [00:26:54] Nick: bank that they were actually doing this can you imagine christine lagarde and her and her deputy sitting over there it's like guys someone is selling the euro in large proportions who is this [00:27:05] Speaker 1: um yeah no i think that's a lot about where europe is right now isn't it oh my god the indignation [00:27:12] Nick: that you you the us has shown um i don't know i don't know why i say towards the the euro to towards um european union and the ecb is crazy yeah yeah so uh so that was the mechanics of it that's what [00:27:26] Speaker 1: happened but nick um i think now you need to explain to us exactly why this was done as you said it was pretty historic um there was this interesting angle of them selling euros rather than dollars to do it but why exactly are they doing this and why are they working in tandem uh to get it done well according to [00:27:45] Nick: a besant it was uh to help the japanese economy out because the yen uh the yen weakness was bad for inflation according to trump it was because they were quote good friends but i think the main reason they did that was purely self-interest and that was to save the u.s bond market and that's because the japanese government is the single largest foreign holder of u.s treasuries at over one trillion dollars worth which is 13 percent of all foreign held u.s debt uh so the concern was that what japan would traditionally do in order to try and defend the yen would be to sell some of the some of their reserves on the prime primarily u.s treasuries and if they start selling u.s treasuries into the market this is obviously going to lead to a spike in yields on the longer dated bonds especially the 10-year and the 30-year so uh basically the uh specimen said let me help uh the japanese support their currency without them selling uh the treasuries and thereby driving up uh yields so according to axios quote u.s participation may have been an effort to enable japanese the japanese to smooth gyrations without [00:29:01] Speaker 1: creating market pressure for treasury bonds okay okay so although trump invested were both sort of saying that is just because we're really good mates we uh we just want to help our friends out um i get i mean the interesting part of that is i guess it kind of it kind of says that what is basically washington admitting uh that there is this structural dependency that it has on japan you know whatever uh fiscal decision to japan takes directly affect us borrowing costs and of course you know given that the us is sitting on i think it was 40 trillion dollars of debt or close to that last time i checked i mean surprising by billions every day um so yeah i mean this is something that the us can't really afford to [00:29:45] Nick: ignore exactly yeah and this is why they jumped in so to be fair unfortunately i mean it's not like it's not like it had much of an impact because i think that already at least half of the uh half of the uh the the in terms of the the yen itself in terms of half of the uh the rally we saw in the yen has now been erased as markets have you know they've they've seen that the treasury has done this and they know that this signals that the treasury is worried and as a result they're just jumping back in so already half of the the gains that the yen had seen because of this intervention have been wiped out so it's it shows that that that besant and co are worried about this yeah do you think do you think then the ecb [00:30:29] Speaker 1: should be worried that they're going to cheat a whole load more euros to uh to try to do it again [00:30:35] Nick: to be honest i think i think they full stack sold all the euros in the exchange stabilization fund they're just like they cheated the whole bag of the euros so i think that's basically uh tapped out the the exchange stabilization fund which is why they wanted the fed to now get involved and and utilize the the fimer facility and what's in it's basically like allow the fed is basically printing money us dollars to try and save uh the japanese yen which is crazy wow propping up propping up failing fiat [00:31:09] Speaker 1: currencies that are all heading to zero it's uh it's a tale as old as time indeed but if you guys want [00:31:16] Nick: to trade these crazy fx gyrations and you're looking for a place to do it uh one of the best places we can think of is a bit get especially but get trad fi and this allows you to trade it's a crypto exchange but it allows you to trade traditional assets including stocks uh you know tokenized commodities as well as fx so you can swap your bitcoin for tokenized gold and all these other assets over there and you can trade directly with usdt and you can use up to 500 times leverage and you can enjoy deep liquidity and the the lowest slippage and all you need to do to sign up is scan the qr code on the screen or hit the link in the description and if you do so you can also avail yourself of up to fifty thousand dollars in deposit bonuses as well nice very good very good thanks to bit get okay uh we [00:32:07] Speaker 1: are going to go over in just a sec to geordie with the ta um but a bit of housekeeping actually from brett um and this is uh you need to remind everyone geordie of your live trading streams killer streams with much valuable education included from uh for noobs to pros so uh yeah a little um very uh very much agree with brett there um geordie streams over on uh coin bureau trading are very much worth checking out and to give you a taste of the sort of alpha that you can get let's cut over to him now um for this [00:32:38] Speaker 3: week's ta shall we what's up guys just a quick update on the bitcoin charts if we look at the fixed range volume profile on the four hour time frame bitcoin has been stuck in this quite tight range around poc from about 61 62k up to 66k it has been an extremely choppy time as we usually do see when prices around poc and what's interesting here is the smooth move down from value area high to value area low then the choppy move back up past poc to value area high for the very nice short and now we see poc once again being tested with some heavy volatility but the bulls managing to bring price back up towards value area high also very interesting to note here is the squeeze that we are seeing in volatility within this range and this can present some very nice trading opportunities as long as we are careful with it the best way to trade these kinds of symmetrical triangles are to look for your long set support and your short set resistance so that when there is a large breakout in either direction you are already positioned correctly if you do trade this as a breakout be sure to wait for a retest with some strong volume and a proper move which means you might miss out on the move if it is a straight breakout but it is much safer as you protect yourself from fake outs i'm going to take this in a more conservative risk managed way and just follow our strategies popping the fixed range volume profile back in it's clear to see where our high volume nodes are and the biggest one other than the poc being down at this level and this beautiful triple bottom bounce trade that came in at this level it's just another reminder of how important these high volume nodes are as it was a nice easy four hour entry we're now almost five percent up on spot we need to now monitor if price is going to make it back up into value area high where we can look for some juicy shorts or if poc is going to pull price back down for a loss of that poc and a retest of this major support level for a possible move back down into value area low zooming in on the volume profile within the value area high we can see some very clear volume spikes and these can give us some sniper resistance levels we can also see some really nice bearish order blocks in this value area high zone like this order block that did give a very nice quick initial tap and then the very strong previous short entry it's good to be aware here that liquidity has already been swept within this order block but i am still interested in the upper part of this order block as there still is liquidity sitting there at this high volume node we can also see a fresher new bearish order block has been created here and it is in confluence with this high volume node this gives us a very nice overlap of confluence with two bearish order blocks and two strong high volume spikes i will be looking here for a sweep of this liquidity and possibly a nice wick up to this high volume node for a juicy short entry if the top of this range doesn't break to the upside a nice zone to watch here to see if we are going up to value area high or back down to poc is this smaller more fresh order block right here that does look like it is being broken by the bulls if price does manage to claim this liquidity zone it could turn into a breaker block and just act as a support and resistance zone price is really struggling here so a nice zone to watch of course above us right now are the more immediate zones of interest as we are up towards value area high we could be looking at a visit down to value area low whether it's a failure to reach value area high or move up to our point of interest and a nice rinse and repeat down and if we look below we can see one more nice volume spike before value area low and then some beautiful confluence at the bottom of our range we have two very strong volume spikes which are lining up with this very nice bullish order block at the bottom and this breaker block that has been flipped with a big struggle from resistance that could now act as support and these are the two major zones of confluence that i will be looking at for my longs if we do move down to value area low because things have been so choppy on the four hour time frame for my entry signals for these zones i would look towards the daily time frame and as soon as we move to this time frame we can see some of the noise being cut out most of you know i like to use market cipher for my entry signals and we can see some beautiful moves have been playing out on this indicator with our bullish divergence and our trigger wave strategies giving us nice entries this trigger wave on the wave trend was not an entry that i took on the daily as it was not below the 45 line which is one of my personal rules in my strategy and we can also see here the squeeze that is happening in price that we spoke about at the beginning with that symmetrical triangle we really want to see strong moves on wave trend above the 45 and below for our strong strategic entries so this is going to require some patience now but it does look like we could possibly set up for a trigger wave sell signal to the downside and we need to make sure that aligns with our point of interest with the four hour order blocks and high volume nodes daily stochastic is already up in the overboard region but it has been known to spend time there in an uptrend and we need to wait to see what happens here on regular rsi as ideally for our shorts we would want to be up in the oversold so i'll leave it nice and short and sweet with the zones of interest here on the four hour in the daily but i have dropped lots of higher time frame analysis into my discord on the monthly and the weekly so if you're interested in that check it out [00:37:51] Nick: now that was an extra extra alpha session from geordie over there so uh if you guys want to go and see what else jordie's got up his sleeve go and sign up or subscribe to the coin bureau trading channel we'll leave a qr code on the screen right now for you to sign up we also have uh announcement signed another new trader uh this guy's also called matt another rosie uh and uh he's now no we're getting swamped by the aussies hey guy another aussie called matt surprisingly and uh he's now also uh streaming once a week for some uh who does stock streamers stock analysis as well so some stock ta for us branching out fantastic so don't forget to subscribe guys uh we'll put the qr code on for both geordie as well as matt and of course the mats are two mats and erin aka million popper yes what a [00:38:51] Speaker 1: team what a team okay uh shall we have a look at some tweets of the week let's go let's go okay um first we have uh this one from uh nostra nostra house of gold last minute negotiations the request of saudi arabia this is sort of referencing uh iran's troll that trump has basically been negotiating with himself yeah exactly me myself and i yeah and there there is the photographic evidence to prove it um very good uh next up we have uh this one from zach vol um yeah linkedin just got promoted instagram just went to the gym x if you don't make 20 million dollars before you turn 25 then you're gay [00:39:42] Nick: and your entire family that's at least on on crypto x i don't know if if all other x communities are like [00:39:50] Speaker 1: that are there i mean probably probably crypto x is slightly worse but i i would imagine i i would think that rot is uh is prevalent across all of across all of x or twitter but um yeah a good uh a good rundown of it there um next up uh this one here now this is a selection of ones um this is regarding this hack of cold card uh that we talked about lewis and i talked about a bit last week um yeah interested to get your your thoughts on this whole situation nick as well because as i said last week this is some of the worst possible news and a few sort of tweeted reactions to it um yeah uh the um from ranging from the sort of uh ranging from the very funny 16 years into this industry and the safest way to secure your coins is to generate seed phrase on air gap device and shove it up your ass yes um i i mean i mean yes um and and then there were quite a few you know to be serious there were quite a few uh takes from people who who'd been caught up in this who had actually lost uh money on this um and uh yeah some some very considered ones but it was it it was a terrible story yeah it was indeed [00:41:06] Nick: i mean i think these guys did everything right by the book right in the sense that they trusted the they trusted this is a hardware wallet not just any hardware wallet it was the one that was touted as one of the most secure you can get uh and many of bitcoin maxis had been promoting this particular wallet and people had stored a lot of their life savings in these devices and what was supposed to be sacrosanct you know our hardware wallet cold storage was now being drained and you know obviously it came to light that this was because of a bad entropy setup if i recall and there was a lot of blame going around but it's just it's not happening at the best time for crypto right now and bitcoin's image and it raised a lot of questions and again about is self-custody it should noobs really be trying to go with the self-custody route if there are these risks that could exist when you know i guess it's much safer for them for their perspective for a newbie beginning just buying an etf right so that's why it was a difficult day and a difficult for the narrative and difficult for the community [00:42:13] Speaker 1: yeah as i said to i ben and i were talking about this on nfa on thursday and you know as i said then it's like whenever we talk about self-custody from now on that will there will always be that caveat there will always be that self-custody is you know is the way to go most of the time but yeah it's yeah it's really heartbreaking um okay uh moving on and we also have uh this tweet here this was some big [00:42:40] Nick: news last week what's going on here nick so sam blackshear was one of the chief scientists at miston labs that is of course the development company behind the sui blockchain and he was like the phd level one of the i think he created the move program in language and he used to work over it at facebook meta that was previously working on the libra project then left went to mr labs worked on sui for like three or four years and is now um pivoting to ai to go and join anthropic so you know it's not just he's he's taking the literally pivoting to ai as a developer so yeah and i mean it's a big loss for miston to the extent that he was the chief scientist he invented the move language so i do question what does this mean for the development of move going forward but yeah greener pastures over at anthropic i'm pretty sure he's also got a pretty big signing bonus you would imagine so yeah you would [00:43:42] Speaker 1: imagine so yeah there was um it it it says a lot about the current state of crypto doesn't it it's like some of the best some of the best minds in the industry are are moving to ai and uh yeah you don't um you don't have to you know you don't have to be a genius to figure out why okay um and finally we have uh this one here this tweet here from oh god speaking of geniuses um this is what i presume i i mean this must be an ai generated uh i mean the most cringe tweet of the year it's got to be [00:44:18] Nick: one of those man i mean jeez i i wonder it's like do you think they watched this thing the whole way through before they just decided let's hit send yeah you know like i mean the first the first best time to delete this was before you posted it the second best time is now i would have kept that one in drafts chief i mean jeez jeez uh jeez louise yeah i mean i don't know uh this is the state of the markets right now is this is this the bottom signal is this the ultimate bottom signal i mean i love the fact they've got who's in there they've got linaldin doing a dance they've got uh is that matt from bitwise bottom left i mean you know you can notice ai because they're doing the same dance moves the [00:45:02] Speaker 1: whole time yeah yeah i mean i i think these guys should um should should check whether they're happy for their likeness to be used in this way um yeah i mean you you you will notice folks that we haven't put the sound on for this that is for your own mental well-being um you can go and listen to it if you want but i fully i i heartily advise you gotta be careful we gotta be careful to uh the youtube we [00:45:29] Nick: get a youtube penalization point or we could uh cause you guys to die via cringe yeah yeah once heard it [00:45:36] Speaker 1: can't be unheard unfortunately okay uh so that was uh strategy um once again proving that 2026 is very much their year um okay nick any dates for the diary uh that we should be aware of this week yeah so just a [00:45:52] Nick: few uh like i mentioned at the top of the stream we've got the cpi coming out on wednesday it's the single most important data point this week it's the first cpi that captures the period after the oil spike back to the hundred dollar level in late july uh so i think that if we for example get a cool print maybe below 3.5 year on year this then confirms there's disinflation and then rate cut expectations accelerate um dollar falls further bitcoin pushes back up towards potentially 70k if it's a hot print though and it comes in about above 4 4 year on year then expect um you know september cuts to be delayed or cancelled and then dollar rallies and risk off and bitcoin tests uh 60 to 62k potentially thursday we've got the initial jobless claims the previous was 229k so it's the first a weekly jobless claims post nfp so it'll be interesting to see where it lands and then finally on friday friday we've got some u.s retail sales and then the university of michigan consumer sentiment uh index key to watch the inflation expectations from that one as another read on what's happening with the inflation uh landscape right now [00:47:13] Speaker 1: okay okay so a bit of data to watch out for as well that is almost it for today but uh we do need to flag up the uh the elephant in the room which is that we have got to over 100 likes so this one's very much come to uh come back to bite us in the ass so um how are we going to do this how do we get uh how do we solicit suggestions for what we wear next week i mean brett as you can imagine has a few ideas um mostly involving from what i can see yeah and 1800s made um a geisha or a gimp oh god i would clarify brett that these sorts of outfits that you're you're so very keen to see me wearing are not very easy to come by in dubai um so um yes how do we uh how do we get people to um uh to suggest what we uh what we're going to wear the matrix theme i think we'll see [00:48:11] Nick: what leave your comments uh post stream as well we'll come back to it collated we'll ask our um our t our team to basically see which of these these outfits they can actually source um that aren't going to get us arrested uh yeah that'd be hell it's amazing that this is this is the sign this is the bear market bottom literally we've turned ourselves into live mannequins for our audience just to [00:48:38] Speaker 1: solicit 100 likes it's it's not long before we'll be doing tick tock challenges and uh a reverse look [00:48:47] Nick: like guy okay so all i need to do is wear like a five-year-old black t-shirt not groom myself and [00:48:54] Speaker 1: then i'll just be like oh god oh dear um okay i did some interesting suggestions here um and uh and as keep well why don't we leave with this as keeps four back points out i remember when the goal was a thousand likes so so do i so do i it was a long time ago though um yes leave some suggestions folks um i know a lot of you uh may not uh be watching this on live you may be watching it on catch up leave some suggestions for how we should uh how we should dress for next week's stream in the comments um and we will uh we will try and well we'll select one we will be limited by what we can actually get hold of here i know you know i know you could order stuff off amazon and stuff but it's not always the easiest thing to get stuff here but uh yeah leave your suggestions and we will uh we'll pick some we'll pick one that's creative and uh and funny and uh and we can see see it in the next stream yep looking forward to it man fantastic all right thanks everyone for watching thanks for your comments thanks for your uh suggestions and everything else we will be back next week uh dressed slightly differently uh until then um see you soon have a great week [00:50:14] Speaker 4: and you play tetris on a cold card nobody knows how it feels to be a bad man [00:50:28] Speaker 5: a long-suffering viewer since 2023 suffering you a long-suffering viewer here for sure long-suffering viewer lord i've been a long-suffering viewer since 2023 suffering [00:50:55] Speaker 1: you can you believe some of the postage prices on on amazon light right now a full gimp suit like you know they're asking like a thousand aed but the postage is 500. i mean i bought my gimp suit it was [00:51:09] Nick: two thousand so you're getting a discount there what what