MS NOW moves SC Senate rating TOWARDS DEM as GOP pours MILLIONS into Darline Graham — COMPILATION

[0:00] And joining us now is Dr. Annie Andrews. [0:03] She is a pediatrician and the Democratic candidate for United States Senate in South Carolina. [0:08] Thank you very much for joining us. [0:10] You have everyone's attention from The New York Times pollsters throughout the political media today. [0:18] This was the poll of the day that stopped everyone. [0:22] Were you surprised that this is where it stands tonight? [0:26] You know, I'm really excited that people are understanding what's happening here in South Carolina. [0:33] This New York Times poll really reflects what I've been feeling on the ground as we've been building this campaign over the past 18 months. [0:40] I've been to all 46 counties talking to veterans and nurses and doctors and farmers and fishermen. [0:46] And just tonight I was in Rock Hill in Ralph Norman's backyard and we had an outdoor rally. [0:51] 500 people showed up. [0:53] There is so much hope and optimism and energy on the ground because we've been building a campaign that's for everybody, [0:59] not just for Democrats who are feeling hopeful in South Carolina, [1:02] but for independents who are ready for change and for Republicans like my own dad, [1:06] who care more about South Carolina than they care about party politics in Washington, D.C. [1:10] And they're looking for a senator who will be an independent voice, [1:13] who will work to lower costs and fix our health care system and root out the corruption in Washington, D.C. [1:18] So I believe this poll because it reflects exactly what we're seeing on the ground. [1:22] We have the momentum. [1:23] We have the wind at our backs. [1:25] We can win this race. [1:26] And I'm just so excited for what's to come over the next six days. [1:29] So your dad is not the only Republican voting for you. [1:34] You've got a former Republican governor of Georgia endorsing you in a kind of team endorsement with a former Democratic governor of Georgia. [1:43] What is your what is your pitch to Republican voters? [1:47] Yeah, I'm really excited to have the support of former Republican South Carolina governor David Beasley, [1:53] former Democratic South Carolina governor Jim Hodges. [1:56] They filmed that video jointly endorsing me. [1:58] They ran against each other. [2:00] They disagree on a lot of things, but they're coming together because they see in me a senator who will put South Carolina first. [2:06] And that's what I'm hearing from the over 100 Republicans across the state who have endorsed me, [2:10] from Ralph Norman's son who endorsed me. [2:13] I had a beer with him tonight before our rally because our campaign is appealing to everyone because they don't want Washington, [2:19] D.C. to pick South Carolina's next senator. [2:23] And it's very clear that Darlene is not up for this job. [2:26] She's not fundraising successfully into her campaign. [2:28] Her campaign is essentially fully funded by the data center industry, [2:32] the insurance companies who are ripping us off, pharmaceutical companies. [2:36] She will she will vote in in line with the special interest groups and billionaire donors and party bosses. [2:42] We need an independent voice in this seat. [2:45] And that's what I'm going to be. [2:49] See, I thank you for correcting me. [2:51] I said Georgia there when I met South Carolina referring the governor in these final days. [2:56] Does the campaign change now that you're down to maybe five more days of campaigning? [3:03] Nothing changes. [3:03] We're just going to keep hustling and, you know, run through the tape. [3:07] We've been all over the state just in the past two days. [3:09] I'm going to be on the road all week meeting with as many voters as I can, [3:13] continuing to hold town halls, doing all the things that Darlene Graham is not doing. [3:18] She's not talking to voters. [3:19] She's not making an affirmative case for her candidacy. [3:22] And people are waking up and realizing that. [3:24] And that's why we shocked the country this morning with this New York Times poll. [3:27] So, you know, we are we are in a position to win this, but I need help. [3:30] So I need people to go to DrAnnieAndrews.com and chip in what they can and help support us, [3:36] help us across the finish line as we return the Senate seat to the people of South Carolina [3:41] and reject the notion that Washington, D.C. should pick our next senator. [3:47] When you meet voters, Republican voters, do you find them quoting Donald Trump's criticisms of you? [3:54] Do you are they landing? [3:55] Do you have to respond to those with voters? [3:57] Honestly, I think that's turning more Republicans away. [4:02] It's people are so tired of that divisiveness. [4:04] And remember, I'm running in the South. [4:06] People don't like the name calling. [4:08] And as I've said before, if if the president calling me names would help lower gas prices [4:12] and diesel prices for folks here in South Carolina, he can call me all the names he wants. [4:16] But he's name calling because he doesn't want to talk about gas prices and diesel prices [4:20] and our broken health care system and the corruption in Washington, D.C. [4:23] So, frankly, you know, I think the name calling people are tired of it. [4:27] They want to move beyond this hyperpartisan era of politics. [4:31] They want to get back to a time when we remember there's more that unites us than divides us. [4:36] So I don't expect his behavior to change. [4:38] But I actually think at the end of the day, it's helping my campaign. [4:41] Dr. Annie Andrews, who could be one of the big history makers on election night. [4:47] Thank you very much for joining us tonight. [4:49] Thanks for having me, Lawrence. [4:52] But for now, let's bring in Michael Schnell, MSNOW congressional reporter. [4:55] She joins us from South Carolina this morning. [4:57] Okay, Michael, you have been talking to Republicans about the state of the Senate race. [5:03] And I can tell you those I've spoken to down there honestly feel frustrated and disrespected. [5:08] This should be a very comfortably read state. [5:11] There were many people that could have been chosen for the seat. [5:14] And the president handpicked Darlene Graham. [5:16] And lots of voters are saying this woman is unqualified. [5:19] And unqualified or not, she doesn't have any experience. [5:22] Steph, that's exactly what I'm hearing from voters. [5:25] And it's exactly what I've been hearing from South Carolina Republicans who are here on the ground. [5:30] Plain and simple, they are nervous about this race. [5:33] I spoke to Congresswoman Nancy Mace last night. [5:35] She's, of course, the Republican representing parts of South Carolina in the House. [5:38] She told me it's an effing train wreck. [5:41] And Steph, she actually used the word. [5:43] She said it's a mess. [5:43] She said things are not good right now. [5:45] I spoke to another South Carolina Republican official who told me that this race is way tighter than it should be. [5:50] And so the fact that the president is coming to town spending resources, time and money in a state like South Carolina is wild. [5:58] This is a place that went for President Trump by double digits in the previous presidential election. [6:02] It has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998. [6:07] But Republicans are very worried that this year could be the one that breaks that trend because Darlene Graham has struggled to unite the Republican Party and get voters excited about her candidacy. [6:17] That being said, the president back in town today, his second visit in two weeks and his third in three months trying to nudge her over the finish line in this final stretch. [6:25] But here's the thing. Let's talk about the look for Trump. [6:28] OK, the White House obviously thinks Graham needs help. [6:31] That's why Trump is going there. [6:33] That's why they're spending all this money. [6:35] But but doesn't this put him in danger that reinforcing Darlene Graham, if it doesn't work out, all eyes are going to point to Donald Trump. [6:46] Yes, the president has a ton on the line here because he has carried Darlene Graham along the way through every step of this. [6:52] He's the one who encouraged the governor here to appoint Darlene Graham to fill the seat of her brother, the late Senator Lindsey Graham. [6:59] He is the one who encouraged her to run for the full six year term. [7:02] And he is the one who endorsed her and has now been rallying for her. [7:05] But what I'm hearing from these Republican officials, Steph, is that it's a question of whether Trump being here today will help or hurt Darlene Graham. [7:12] They're telling me it's a double edged sword. [7:14] On one hand, yes, the president has this innate ability to turn out Republican voters. [7:18] And by the way, Nancy Mace told me that Trump is going to have to drag Darlene Graham over the finish line because of those MAGA voters do not come out. [7:25] She will lose. [7:26] But on the other hand, I'm also hearing that folks feel like Darlene Graham is being shoved down their throats. [7:31] And that is not my word. [7:33] That's what Congressman Ralph Norman told me. [7:34] He is, of course, the one who lost to Darlene Graham in the primary. [7:38] And Ralph Norman's take on this is important. [7:41] Yes, he lost the primary. [7:42] He is still supporting Darlene Graham in this race. [7:44] But he actually is from Rock Hill, South Carolina, where I am right now. [7:48] He represents this part of the state. [7:50] In fact, this part of the state voted for Ralph Norman by 26 percentage points over Darlene Graham in that runoff back in August. [7:58] So Ralph Norman tells me that while the president is able to turn out voters and excite them, voters are also feeling like they're not being given a choice here and that they're being forced to support Darlene Graham. [8:08] So it could come around to haunt them in the end. [8:10] And there's also a question of you brought up this idea of nepotism here, the fact that Darlene Graham does not have the qualifications. [8:16] A lot of voters are saying, but yet she is in this position because of her last name. [8:20] That is another thing that I'm hearing from officials that is dogging her candidacy and her campaign in this final stretch. [8:26] So, again, the president here doing what he can to try to push her over the finish line. [8:30] But folks are telling me that it actually may be counterproductive. [8:34] Michael, thank you. [8:35] Now let's get smarter with the help of our lead off panel. [8:37] It's going to be a great one. [8:38] Susan Glasser is back, staff writer for The New Yorker. [8:41] Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor at Inside Elections and former South Carolina governor, a man who knows this state well, Mark Sanford. [8:49] Governor, I'm so glad you're here. [8:51] What is the vibe in South Carolina, specifically with Republicans that you talk to? [8:56] I've spent the last day talking to Republicans in Texas who are frustrated that they feel that they have to back Ken Paxson like they have no choice. [9:05] Is that the case in South Carolina? [9:07] Very much so. [9:09] I mean, what was just reported, I think, is accurate in that there is genuine frustration with, you know, the choice that they're left with. [9:19] They don't want to vote Democratic. [9:21] But at the same time, they're concerned about competency and allegiance issues. [9:27] They don't like the idea of a puppet, somebody who, you know, do as told by the president just because he helped drag he or her, as the case might be, across the finish line. [9:38] And so I think that it's going to be a tight one. [9:41] I think it's an absurd conversation that we're having to have this conversation about South Carolina. [9:46] I think it's crazy that you've seen three presidential visits for a Republican nominee. [9:52] I think it's a way, again, that should be an absolute chew in. [9:54] It says there are a lot of red flags going off in the White House. [9:57] And I think those same red flags are being reflected here on the ground in South Carolina. [10:01] You endorsed Ralph Norman over Darlene Graham. [10:06] So are you having sort of, and I told you so, moment? [10:09] I mean, even if Graham pulls it off, just think of the amount of money and effort this White House has had to back, has had to put forward to back Graham. [10:18] That would not have been the case with Norman. [10:21] Right. [10:22] I mean, I don't think, this is not a South Carolina thing. [10:26] I don't think that people in our country like the idea of political nepotism. [10:31] Does it occasionally happen? [10:32] Yeah. [10:32] But I think in terms of the default setting in the way that Americans think about politics and their representatives in Washington or in a state capitol, it just doesn't feel right. [10:45] And there's something awkward about it. [10:47] So, yeah, I think Ralph would have been a shoe in. [10:50] But here we are. [10:52] Indeed, here we are. [10:54] Let's stay on this corruption and nepotism idea, Susan. [10:58] We have heard voters say that corruption and cronyism is a top issue for them. [11:03] Like, we're off the reservation. [11:06] Like, there are longtime political families. [11:08] We know that in this country. [11:10] And, in fact, a lot of voters have fatigue over it. [11:12] But we're looking at a situation where this is a senator who has zero political experience one year ago. [11:20] Is this another example of Trump being severely out of touch, just playing with the American people? [11:27] Well, Steph, look, I think he takes things for granted. [11:30] And he certainly took the fact that South Carolina was such a deep red state for granted that he could do essentially whatever he wanted. [11:37] And I think that's the through line that you see Democrats emphasizing in this election cycle, the idea that Donald Trump is governing like a king. [11:45] I noticed that that was really one of the big lines that got a huge response from the crowd when Barack Obama used it last night at his rally in Atlanta. [11:55] And I think the reason that connects the dots here, right, is this idea of no constraints, no limits, no one who can tell Donald Trump what to do. [12:04] So that's the through line from the idea of the guy who is redecorating the people's house with gold, but also using his power of the office to monetize the presidency for his personal gain and the gain of his family. [12:16] And just the idea that he's indifferent in many respects to the issues that are driving Americans. [12:23] Maybe this campaign theme wouldn't work as well, Steph, if it weren't for the economic and geopolitical situation that Donald Trump himself has generated. [12:32] Right. Like corruption has historically been a tough issue to get people really motivated to vote on. [12:38] But at a moment when people are concerned about the actual conditions in their lives, I think it's resonating in a very different way in this election than I've seen in other American elections. [12:48] Jacob, what are the numbers look like? [12:51] Well, in South Carolina, they're troubling for Republicans. [12:54] I've got three numbers for you, Stephanie. [12:56] I'm glad you asked. [12:57] The first one is 48. [12:59] That's where Annie Andrews and Darlene Graham were tied at in the latest New York Times survey that you put up on the screen a couple minutes ago. [13:07] The second number is 4 million. [13:09] That's how many dollars Annie Andrews raised in the first two weeks of October. [13:13] The third is 90,000. [13:16] That's how many dollars Darlene Graham raised in the first two weeks of October. [13:20] 4 million to 90,000. [13:22] That money is important because if the race is tied at 48, one of those candidates has to win. [13:27] Which one has the resources, the infrastructure, the ability to go out and get those final couple of voters? [13:33] Increasingly, it's looking like Annie Andrews has an edge on that front. [13:37] Republicans have had to pour money into this state, millions of dollars to rescue Darlene Graham. [13:43] She really doesn't have much of a campaign apparatus. [13:45] It's all being done on the super PAC side. [13:48] And that puts her in a difficult position, even though the partisan lean of the state, you know, Trump won by 20 points here, essentially, still is in her favor. [13:56] Governor, let's just get practical when we talk about closing messages, right? [14:01] The president, what he is saying at rallies last night in Ohio, it took an hour before he talked about the economy, which is the number one issue for voters. [14:11] Before that, he was largely focused on attacking immigrants, some on Democrats. [14:15] Democrats part should not be a surprise. [14:17] And then he turned to talk up the White House renovations again. [14:23] How does this play with American voters? [14:25] Like, take me to South Carolina. [14:26] I can't imagine there are voters that are excited to hear about White House renovations. [14:30] I think that's more than fair. [14:34] I think that, you know, it's the economy stupid. [14:38] It always is. [14:39] And I think it's particularly relevant given where gas prices are and the affordability issues that people are struggling with in South Carolina. [14:47] So I think if you go off script on that, which they want to do, I think also if you go off script on the notion of war, this is a guy who's promised some very different things on that front, promised very different things on the economy front. [15:03] And so I think that we're looking at one of these big Democratic suites. [15:07] I mean, like along the lines of 2006, where you saw, if I remember right, it was like 30 House seats and six Senate seats. [15:15] I think that this is going to be a major sweep and a major repudiation, whether it happens or not in South Carolina. [15:21] I think it's very tough for it to happen in South Carolina just based on the base numbers. [15:24] But I think it's going to be a big Democratic sweep. [15:27] And I think a lot of Republicans are worried about the simple idea of this ain't working for me and my family in terms of affordability and how we pursue the American dream. [15:37] On the line, let's bring an MSNOW congressional reporter, Michael Schnell, who is on the ground in Rock Hill, South Carolina. [15:44] Also with us, Jamie Harrison, former DNC chair and host of At Our Table. [15:49] Perry Bacon Jr. is a staff writer for The New Republic. [15:52] And Jim Messina served as White House deputy chief of staff for operations under President Obama and campaign manager for Obama's 2012 re-election campaign. [16:01] It is so good to see you all. [16:02] Jamie, you told me earlier this month this race feels different than when you ran for this Senate seat five days out. [16:08] What are you hearing? [16:09] Oh, it is a very, very different race. [16:12] You know, Alicia, this is not 2020. [16:14] And I know something, a little something about 2020. [16:18] You know, I was a first time statewide candidate running against an incumbent who'd been there for 25 years. [16:23] And so Lindsey had all of the advantages, name recognition. [16:26] He raised over $100 million himself. [16:29] And he also benefited from Donald Trump on the ballot. [16:32] Well, in 2026, there is no incumbent Republican senator defending the seat. [16:37] Trump isn't on a ballot. [16:39] Annie Andrews is one hell of an aggressive fundraiser and campaigner. [16:44] And her Republican opponent is not. [16:46] She's just not there. [16:47] She's not up to the task. [16:49] It's like really playing where's Waldo to find Darlene Graham on the campaign trail. [16:56] And she doesn't have any money. [16:57] She's broke. [16:58] So she needs Thune and others to throw money at this campaign. [17:03] And all of the momentum is in Annie Andrews's corner at this point. [17:09] When my kids can count the number of campaign signs and say to me, Dad, I don't see very many Darlene Graham signs. [17:17] It's because there is no enthusiasm for Darlene Graham in the Republican Party, independents or Democrats. [17:23] That enthusiasm and energy is on the side of Annie Andrews. [17:27] Jamie, you know that organizers are currently screaming at their screens that that lawn signs don't vote. [17:35] So let me read you some of the early vote numbers just to perhaps help you make the point. [17:40] In South Carolina, these are not broken down by party, which is notable. [17:45] More than seven hundred and eighty thousand people have already voted. [17:49] That is breaking records for a non presidential year. [17:53] Jim Messina, what do those numbers tell you? [17:56] This is a really close race. [17:58] The enthusiasm to Jamie's point is on the Democrat side. [18:01] And that's not just in South Carolina, Alicia. [18:03] It's all over the country. [18:04] I was looking at numbers in Texas last night where Democrats are overperforming by 12 percent. [18:10] And Republican turnout is down. [18:13] And so that's the enthusiasm that Jamie feels in South Carolina. [18:16] That's enthusiasm we're seeing. [18:18] You know, when I run races, I actually care more about this enthusiasm number than I do anything else, because if you're enthusiastic, you'll vote. [18:26] You'll get your supporters to vote and you'll give money. [18:29] And, you know, in all three of those categories, you're seeing Democrats nationally on the offense in places that we haven't competed in for a very long time. [18:37] To the point about enthusiasm, Michael Schnell, the last time we talked when you were in South Carolina, one Trump voter told you Graham was, quote, fine. [18:45] They were admittedly voting for her anyway. [18:47] What are people telling you today? [18:52] Alicia, it's a lot of that same sentiment. [18:54] The enthusiasm is just not there for Darlene Graham. [18:57] Look, we spoke to a number of her supporters outside the rally site today, but it sounds like it's more of an anti-Annie Andrews vote rather than a pro-Darlene Graham vote. [19:07] Or it's the voter just going down red, down Republicans the entire way when they step into the ballot box. [19:13] I'll show you one voter I spoke to. [19:15] I had to squeeze out the fact from her that she voted for Darlene Graham. [19:18] She did not want to say it. [19:19] Take a listen. [19:21] Who are you voting for in the Senate race? [19:23] Did I have to say that? [19:24] Yeah. [19:26] Darlene Graham. [19:27] You don't seem excited about it? [19:29] I don't feel like we were given much option. [19:31] Really? [19:31] Yeah. [19:32] You feel like the president sort of forced this on you guys? [19:34] Well, I mean, I think we had better options. [19:37] You know, when she took, when she was appointed as the sister, she said, I don't want to run for office. [19:42] I'm not going to seek the office. [19:43] So we were all like, great, that's great. [19:45] Because we had better candidates, I think, lined up. [19:48] Who did you go for in the primary? [19:50] Ralph Norman. [19:51] You wish that Norman was the nominee in this race? [19:54] In my opinion, he was the better candidate. [19:56] It's not the truth, but I'm here to tell you. [20:00] So Alicia, the big question is, what exactly is fueling this sentiment on the ground here in South Carolina? [20:06] It boils down to a number of different factors. [20:08] First off, voters still just do not think that Darlene Graham is qualified to be in this position. [20:13] You'll remember back to that August debate when she said she was not informed on national security, sparking a number of concerns. [20:19] I spoke to one South Carolina Republican official who has seen polls since that debate, who said it hurt the Darlene Graham tremendously, and that voters are just shaken up of not understanding who Darlene Graham is and whether or not she's qualified. [20:32] There's also the word nepotism being tossed around a lot. [20:35] South Carolinians not too happy that the only reason why Darlene Graham is in this position is because she is the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham. [20:42] And then it brings us, of course, to today, where President Trump is making his second visit to the state in two weeks, his third in three months. [20:49] The question of, is this actually helping Darlene Graham or is it hurting her? [20:54] Now, what I have heard from Republicans is they see it as a double-edged sword. [20:57] On one hand, President Trump does have the ability to turn out MAGA voters like none other, and that block is going to be crucial if Darlene Graham wants any chance of winning. [21:06] On the other hand, I'm told that voters feel like this is being forced on them, that supporting Darlene Graham is being forced on them. [21:13] We started with Nancy Mason this conversation. [21:15] I'll end it with her. [21:16] She told me that she feels like South Carolina voters are being forced-fed this vote down their throats. [21:22] So we'll see what the president says as we are five days away from Election Day in a state, by the way, that he won by 18 points back in 2024, and now polls are showing it's a dead heat. [21:32] Michael Chanel for us in Rock Hill, South Carolina. [21:34] Michael, thank you. [21:35] All right, let's talk about Ralph Norman, because the rally, Perry, today is in his hometown. [21:40] He lost the primary to Graham. [21:42] You heard that voter there saying, I think we had better choices, including Ralph Norman. [21:46] Well, in an op-ed, his son wrote, he is voting for all Republicans and Annie Andrews. [21:52] He said, unfortunately, there is no true conservative to vote for in the Senate race and expressed concern that if Graham wins, the establishment would keep her there for decades. [22:01] Are Norman supporters, Perry, the kinds of people who Trump can persuade or does an op-ed like that help persuade them? [22:10] Op-ed is not helpful. [22:12] Having people on your own side be against you is not helpful. [22:14] I do think in most states, I would say Trump going there is probably not going to be helpful. [22:21] I do think this is the one state where at the core of it, as you noted, as we just noted, Trump won the state by like 18 points. [22:27] If the overmajority of Trump voters are inspired to turn out, then at the end of the day, that will probably get Graham over the line, even if she's a bad candidate who people don't like. [22:38] So I think this is smart today by Trump to go. [22:40] There's probably benefits to do that. [22:42] This is a state where the last Democrat won in 1998. [22:46] This is 1998. [22:47] So how historic this would be if she won, if Annie Andrews won, it would be so historic and so surprising. [22:55] But I do think Trump going there may be helpful. [22:59] Norman, and maybe Trump probably can probably persuade other Republicans to maybe spend the next five days defending our candidate, not bashing our candidate might be helpful. [23:09] I'm guessing he'll say something like that. [23:11] We will see whether that message discipline holds. [23:15] Annie Andrews joined our colleague Lawrence O'Donnell last night, talked about the support she's seeing and why she's seeing it. [23:21] Take a listen. [23:21] Just tonight, I was in Rock Hill in Ralph Norman's backyard, and we had an outdoor rally. [23:27] 500 people showed up. [23:29] There is so much hope and optimism and energy on the ground because we've been building a campaign that's for everybody, not just for Democrats who are feeling hopeful in South Carolina, [23:37] but for independents who are ready for change and for Republicans like my own dad who care more about South Carolina than they care about party politics in Washington, D.C. [23:46] Here's the thing, Jamie. [23:47] It's not just her own dad. [23:48] A former Republican governor of South Carolina has endorsed Andrews. [23:52] Is that enough of a permission structure to bring Republicans in? [23:55] It really is. [23:57] Not only a Republican governor, but also a former Republican state senator, Katrina Sheely. [24:04] And there are a lot of Republicans who just don't like to feel like they are being force fed and a very nice woman, but incompetent when it comes to the U.S. Senate. [24:17] You know, people in South Carolina like to feel like you have to earn something. [24:21] Well, what Darlene Graham is trying to do is inherit something. [24:26] She's trying to inherit a Senate race. [24:28] And there are a lot of Republicans that don't like that. [24:31] A lot of independents that don't like that. [24:35] And they want their, you know, you're one of one, you're one of 100 in a country of over 300 million people. [24:42] Are you telling me that Darlene Graham is the best that we got to send to the United States Senate to represent South Carolina? [24:49] No. [24:49] Republicans know that Democrats know that independents know that. [24:54] And that's why this race is so close. [24:56] And that's why in the end of the day, I think when people pull that curtain, they're going to vote for Annie Andrews because they want somebody who can be confident and who can actually represent the state of South Carolina. [25:07] Perry, there's a South Carolina GOP official who told MSNL, quote, the fact that we're having to spend time and resources in South Carolina is wild. [25:16] Even if Darlene Graham wins, and I have seen Perry, your analysis in The New York Times. [25:22] So I know you think that this is going to be a 50-50 Senate and that the likelihood of someone like Graham not winning in South Carolina, where the president has just arrived, he's planning to take the stage at that rally. [25:34] Even if Darlene Graham wins in a state like South Carolina, what does that mean for the way that both parties start thinking about the map going into 28? [25:42] The map is radically different now. [25:46] Like, we are spending time talking about it five days for the election about a state Democrats last win in 1998, a state Democrats never win in. [25:54] And the fact that we're here, like we are talking, you know, a few months ago when I was in your show, we were talking about, oh, my goodness, Democrats might win Texas, Ohio, Iowa. [26:03] Now we're way down the list to actual red states that are always red. [26:07] So that tells me that right now, Trump, if you're J.D. Vance or you're Marco Rubio, you may really want to be president really badly. [26:14] But this may not be the right time to run if you're thinking about actually winning, because we are looking at a map that is just so different. [26:20] You know, Jim Messina worked with Obama in 2008 and 2012, where we were talking about Texas being on the map. [26:26] But now we are really seeing Texas on the map, Ohio, where you might we might see a female governor in Georgia, Texas and Ohio, female Democratic governor. [26:37] These are historic events we're talking about, which shows just how unpopular Trump is. [26:41] In this case, a self-inflicted problem. [26:44] Only one person wanted Darlene Graham to run for the Senate candidate in South Carolina. [26:50] The problem is he runs the party. [26:52] If they talk to anybody in South Carolina, Democrats, Republicans, independents, children, adults, that no one wanted this candidate except for Donald Trump. [27:01] And that goes to how bad of a party leader he is. [27:04] Forget about being a bad president. [27:07] Yes, MSNOW senior White House reporter Vaughn Hilliard, Punchbowl News co-founder and MSNOW political contributor Jake Sherman, MSNOW political analyst and Democratic strategist and former executive director of the New York State Democratic Party, Basil Schmeichel, [27:20] along with founder and CEO of Independent Veterans of America and host of Independent Americans podcast, Paul Rykoff. [27:29] All right, Vaughn, The Times is reporting that the mood is pretty bad in the White House and they liken it to the mood that that was in the White House ahead of January 6th. [27:40] What are you hearing? [27:41] I was just talking with somebody who suggested to me to only expect to become even a more, quote, toxic environment. [27:49] And that is because Donald Trump is, let's be clear, is the one executing this campaign strategy here at this point. [27:56] There, of course, is hundreds of millions of dollars of MAGA, Inc. infrastructure, Elon Musk money, you know, folks that are trying to help out candidates that even attended his convention. [28:06] But ultimately, he's the one that is dictating the success of this party. [28:10] And right now, polls indicate that it's not going in a good direction. [28:13] And the way that this person was describing it to me is that you see a great number of people that have actively over the last year and a half chosen to leave their official White House capacities, [28:23] which it's no small thing to work inside of the White House, let alone in such a White House in which there has been executive use of power, unlike any other, really having a consequential impact on American society. [28:37] Yet you have seen a vast number of people choose to leave. [28:40] And there is difficulty in recruiting individuals to come be a part of this administration for the next two years because of the way that Donald Trump has largely conducted himself over just these last several weeks. [28:51] You know, not being able to focus even on a clear campaign closing message, not being able to articulate why certain candidates should ascend to Washington, D.C. [29:01] and serve in the U.S. Senate, for example, instead focusing on their physical visites. [29:05] And I think that that is a difficult part here where for this White House, there is consternation because at a staff level, there's only so much you can do to provide for a principal who is unwilling to listen, [29:16] especially when he is turning to people like Natalie Harp and Bill Pulte, who are clearly not ones that are trying to curtail his impulses, but instead boost them and encourage them to go even further. [29:29] All right. So given that things are grim, it is also interesting to hear that they still do believe, despite that, that Donald Trump is, as I said a moment ago, the kingmaker, [29:43] that that he can go to places and pull over the Republican candidate. [29:49] He can inspire enough turnout. [29:51] Now, that being said, the campaign or Donald Trump's White House did cancel a rally in Kansas on Saturday, cancel a rally in Kansas on Saturday. [30:01] A bit of a tongue twister. [30:03] Basil, are are things looking so good for Adam Hamilton right now that the White House has had to accept that Donald Trump's presence for Roger Marshall is a bad thing? [30:14] Is that what's going on? [30:15] Yeah, partly because what the Republicans have to consider right now are their opportunity costs. [30:21] Where do we spend our money? Where do we spend the political capitals? [30:24] You know, where the where does the president go? Where do the cabinet members go? [30:28] What is what is the balance here? And so, yes, I think that I think there is a rising tide for Democrats. [30:35] To Vaughn's point earlier, and it's important to make this point, Donald Trump may not be the kingmaker, [30:40] but there's still a lot of Republicans that are just going to vote Republican because that's what they do. [30:44] But the fact that they need Donald Trump to come out and convince them of that? [30:48] No, they don't. And the thing is, it's interesting because attention is not persuasion. [30:52] Donald Trump is very good at getting attention, even in the weirdest way of talking about people's body parts. [30:58] It draws attention. But that is not persuasion. And what they needed was persuasion. [31:02] He does not do that. And that's why I think a lot of those polls are moving in the in the direction of Democrats. [31:09] Vaughn, have you been to a rally lately? Are they the same as they used to be? [31:12] I mean, he was the entertainment for a long time. And when you're talking about attention, Basil, the attention obviously is there. [31:20] He's funny when he's talking about men's physiques. I mean, he gets laughs in the room. [31:26] But is it the same as it's always been? [31:29] No, for the first time, it's different. And it's even different. [31:31] I was in Georgia last week for his rally. And it was even even if the first rally I was at the first rally that he did post January 6th. [31:40] And it was actually in January of 2022. And that was your typical Trump rally. [31:46] Fifteen thousand plus people there. And for the 11 years of Trump rallies, it's year 11. [31:51] That is the first time that they're just trying to fill a high school gymnasium, as was the case in Ohio yesterday there. [31:58] And of course, there is. I mean, it's it's just it's a lackluster because there is these realities that literally every single person is living. [32:08] And there were promises that were made. And yet the hope is is being lost. [32:14] And I say that because during the first term, Katie, right, whether it was the trade war that he committed or, you know, his threats against North Korea or the trade war that he started with China. [32:25] Right. Everything was worth it. Everybody is able to justify his actions. [32:29] But here in the year of 2026, even his most loyal supporters are having a hard time justifying his actions and the consequences. [32:37] And more notably, they've lost the hope that in the end, he's going to actually be able to make good on what he says the consequences are worth because he's had, you know, [32:46] now it's two terms to make good on those promises that he's made. And those realities just haven't come to fruition. [32:52] Jake, what's it doing to Republican lawmakers who are running right now? [32:55] Well, I mean, what what the Republican lawmakers in states around the country and districts around the country forget what he's doing now. [33:06] Now is is is, you know, it's too late to reverse 30 percent approval ratings. [33:12] You know, I guess there is a chance in some places he could bring he could bring Republicans out. [33:18] But he is underwater, Katie, almost everywhere. [33:22] I mean, almost everywhere. And you're seeing the Republican campaign entities, super PACs, candidates having to spend in districts that they drew for Republicans to win. [33:38] Remember, they redrew the maps because Donald Trump asked them to. [33:42] Alabama drew a Republican seat for a Republican to win that they are now having to spend money. [33:50] And we've we've written a lot about this over the last couple of months. [33:53] This is happening in Texas. It's happening in Florida. [33:56] You know, Donald Trump said in September he would spend the last 30 days going to 30 or so swing house districts to do rallies. [34:09] He has gone to a grand total of zero swing house districts. [34:13] None. He's not helpful in these places. [34:16] It's the independents. Right, Paul, that are really they're just not feeling it. [34:21] Yeah, they're fleeing in droves. [34:23] I mean, everybody's sick and tired of the Trump show, especially independents. [34:26] That's where he continues to crater. [34:28] And I also think you have to remember he is the quarterback here and he's making some really bad calls. [34:32] I mean, not just hitting Iran and continuing to strike drug boats, but he picked Darlene Graham. [34:37] Right. Darlene Graham's qualification is that she's the sister of Lindsey Graham. [34:40] That's it. People don't like nepotism. [34:42] It cuts to that feeling of corruption. [34:44] It feels like they're people out of touch. And then, of course, there's Ken Paxton. [34:47] So he picked this lineup. Yeah. [34:48] And they don't have any of the magic that he has to even motivate the base. [34:51] It kind of reminds me of the Herschel Walker pick in Jordan. [34:53] Yeah, it is. It's actually he has traditionally been really good at casting. [34:57] But in these final seasons of the show, the casting has gone off a cliff. [35:00] He hasn't been good at casting. I mean, the past few years, he's been terrible at casting. [35:03] Yeah, yeah. [35:03] Anytime that he's gotten he's had a way to get into the race and choose a different candidate or a candidate that he feels is more MAGA, more supportive of him. [35:11] I mean, arguably, Basil. I mean, I'll give that to you, Jake, actually. [35:14] Has any have any of them worked out the picks that he made, the candidates that he that he tapped? [35:21] Yes. I mean, listen, he he endorsed somebody, Katie, in a in a Wisconsin swing seat. [35:28] I think it was Wisconsin. Yeah. [35:29] In a Midwest swing seat that that lost and a guy who was out of the field who had dropped out of the race weeks earlier, one. [35:37] And now they've given up that seat. It is, I believe, in Wisconsin, although my brain is fried from too much traveling. [35:42] You know, I think and I'm going to push back on one thing you said. [35:48] It's not only independence. It's not. [35:50] I mean, Republicans are many Republicans are not happy with him. [35:57] His numbers with Republicans are going down. [35:59] I mean, are they underwater? No, but they are going down. [36:03] His approval rating is going down. His job, his image is going down and his job approval numbers are going down. [36:10] So, you know, I don't I don't think it's as simple as it's independence. [36:13] And remember, the margins, Katie, are very tight. [36:17] You know, they're very tight. So it doesn't take a lot for them to win the House. [36:21] And the Senate is a different beast, but it doesn't take it, you know, unthinkable several months ago for Democrats to take the Senate. [36:28] Now they're even in South Carolina, even in Texas, probably even in Alaska. [36:34] Republicans are slightly up in Iowa. They're going to flip North Carolina. [36:38] I mean, it's it's pretty remarkable. [36:39] We hear a lot about narratives when you think about media or storytelling, which is what we're doing. [36:46] And sometimes you say, well, where did that narrative come from? [36:48] And there are dueling stories right now, as we get closer to the election, the story is coming into view. [36:56] And anyone who follows elections can see it. [36:59] Places that were deep red, red or even purple are now all competitive. [37:04] It's one story. There's not disagreement about that. [37:06] Whether it gets really tight and Republicans eke it out, playing defense in red territories is to be seen. [37:13] But things are closer. That's the story. [37:15] Fox News, for example, we just showed you some MSNOW rankings, has its election forecasters moving a Senate race in a red state that Trump won by double digits now towards the Dem. [37:27] It's building. And on our map, you can see a bit of a change here. [37:30] Every state in yellow, we do believe, is a toss up. [37:33] And you might notice South Carolina there from overnight. [37:35] We put that in the yellow column as well. [37:37] If you advance it one time, you can see these states. [37:40] They're all within the margin of error, which means really, I mean, you know, they could be toss ups come Tuesday. [37:48] Yes, all these states are toss ups. [37:51] Now, you can get into who to blame and what it means, but anyone dealing with the actual numbers can see this. [37:57] One story. Places that were red and, quote, safe, turning purple or into toss ups. [38:04] Texas, Alaska over a year ago, the DNC eyeing this framework was putting cash in those so-called red states, which builds on something that was once controversial. [38:17] Howard Dean's 50 state strategy that came after a period in the Bush era where Democrats felt that they had given up in too many places, even if, yes, the numbers show they would usually lose. [38:28] In some of those red or more rural areas. [38:31] Other Democrats said, you know, you've got to build on your strength in blue states and not throw money at a losing state. [38:37] The Washington Post reported on that debate. [38:40] Of course, what a difference time and results can make. [38:43] Everyone from liberals to Karl Rove noting that Dean was on to something. [38:47] The 50 state strategy is important because we want to compete everywhere. [38:54] There's no place that Democrats should fear to tread anywhere in America. [38:57] Howard Dean was right in rebuilding our parties in 50 states. [39:02] He did it. [39:05] I hate to say it, but we need to copy what Howard Dean did, and that is make our ground game in all 50 states. [39:10] We need to have a better ground game in all 50 states. [39:15] Wonder what Howard Dean thinks about all this. [39:18] Let's ask him. [39:19] The former governor, presidential candidate, DNC chair is here. [39:22] Welcome back. [39:23] I'm laughing at being quoted by Karl Rove. [39:25] I never thought I'd see that day. [39:27] That's a rarity. [39:29] We just had Ali Velshi at the big board. [39:32] OK, he is our data guy. [39:35] He's not pulling one way or the other, and he will give everyone the data Tuesday night. [39:39] And if somebody doesn't like it, tough. [39:41] And yet through his objective data, he is saying Democrats have pulled competitive in those places only because they were on the ground and actually ran viable candidates. [39:52] How does that reflect the strategy that you pushed? [39:57] Well, in some ways it's great, but in other ways it's baby steps. [40:01] I mean, it's not just a 50-state strategy. [40:04] It's also a 24-hour-a-day, 48 months in the four years that we've got to be there. [40:12] We've got to be running not just in these races. [40:14] This is a great start. [40:16] And I thank Ken Martin for investing in these states. [40:18] But we've got to be running in city council races. [40:21] We've got to be running in state legislative races. [40:24] I mean, we have a long, long way to go. [40:27] And unless the people in Washington understand that that's what it takes. [40:31] Look, I have no use for the Republican Party. [40:34] They've pretty much driven a lot of people in this country into poverty, including middle class people who used to be able to pay their gasoline bills. [40:41] But the fact is they were really well organized a long time ago, and they were running in all these races. [40:47] If we don't do that, this isn't going to continue. [40:49] I'm glad we are where we are. [40:52] We've got a long way to go. [40:53] This is just the beginning. [40:54] But at least people are waking up to the notion that you've got to do it this way and there's no shortcuts. [41:00] Yeah. [41:01] And you're making a technical political point that you've got to look down ballot, local, municipal, got to go beyond the off year. [41:08] And that's still in many of these places, folks don't meet a local Democratic official. [41:14] That's true. [41:15] And it's I actually would argue that you don't have to look down ballot. [41:18] You've got to start down ballot. [41:20] Start. [41:21] Yeah. [41:21] Same way. [41:21] Yeah. [41:21] This is all going to look in five days. [41:24] We're going to know what's going on here and all that. [41:26] On the seventh day, we give everybody a day of rest. [41:30] On the seventh day, we ought to be right back out making sure that the races that are going to start happening for the city council. [41:36] Hold up. [41:36] I'll let you finish. [41:36] Hold up. [41:38] Hold up. [41:38] It was weird to have Karl Rove quoting you, but to have you, Dean, quoting Genesis, I don't even know. [41:47] Well, we got to get with with whatever. [41:52] Look at Tallarico. [41:52] He's doing great. [41:53] I think he's going to win, too. [41:55] But go on. [41:56] Finish your point. [41:57] You were saying after the rest, what do you got to do? [41:59] You know, after we get to rest for a day, we got to go back to work. [42:03] And if we don't do that, we're going to be in the same spot we've been in for the last 15 years. [42:09] What issues do you think are cutting through? [42:11] Because we're seeing prices and corruption hit in a different way. [42:14] There are many issues, of course, that you care about and that folks have looked at with Trump. [42:20] In fact, a year ago, Epstein was this huge issue where they actually forced the vote over him. [42:26] And yet here we are. [42:26] As you know, the homestretch is what matters because that's when people turn out. [42:30] Is it corruption and prices in the war or what else are you seeing? [42:34] It is corruption, prices and the war because it's a cause of both of those. [42:38] I think that's one of the problems that the Democrats have had for the last few years is that we focus on the inside the beltway drama. [42:45] People don't care about inside the beltway. [42:47] What they care about is the gas prices. [42:50] And can they send their kids to school with some textbooks and some decent clothes? [42:54] That's what they care about. [42:55] And so they forgave Trump. [42:57] I mean, look, everybody, I got to believe most Americans knew that Trump was a crook and incompetent. [43:03] I got to believe that. [43:04] Why did they vote the Democrats out? [43:05] Because we weren't paying attention to the stuff they really cared about. [43:08] And Trump did. [43:09] And he hasn't done anything about it. [43:11] He's made their lives worse. [43:12] But we've got to focus on what ordinary people care about. [43:16] And it's not fights over the thing over. [43:19] Yeah, you make a great justice. [43:20] Justice matters. [43:21] You make a great point. [43:22] You know, I'm not a you know, we've got to know each other professionally over the years, Governor. [43:26] You know, I'm not an anti intellectualist. [43:28] You know, I'm not against people getting educated and going to school and reading books. [43:33] But, you know, the only time I ever hear the word cloture is from like a D.C. liberal operator. [43:40] I never hear it. [43:41] You know. [43:42] And so sometimes you go, what are you saying to people? [43:44] And I thought I would love your view. [43:46] We did show some Obama earlier in the show. [43:48] I'm not going to play more now. [43:48] But seeing the Obama communication style, even the aforementioned Cheesecake Factory and the way he used nouns to talk about, you know, Trump's not focused on you. [44:02] He's putting ugly gold fixtures in the White House. [44:06] It looks like the Cheesecake Factory famously said. [44:09] It looks like Saddam Hussein's palace. [44:11] And he's corrupt and doesn't care about you. [44:14] You know, if you polled people, every single person knew exactly what Obama was saying. [44:18] Hey, it's Rachel. [44:20] I am so glad to see you at the end of that clip because this is where I get to tell you about a new way to watch all our clips and all of our shows and everything on MSNOW on your phone or your tablet or your laptop. [44:32] You can watch things live or recorded. [44:34] Plus, you can ask me and all the other hosts and reporters questions in our weekly live chats. [44:39] You can go to MS.NOW membership or just click below. [44:45] Thanks.