MS NOW Highlights - July 23

[0:00] Good evening from New York. I'm Chris Hayes. As Donald Trump's reckless war with Iran stretches [0:04] on indefinitely, the man is transparently desperate for a win, any kind of win in the [0:09] Middle East. And to that end, he shocked the world this week by announcing a big nuclear agreement [0:15] with, of all places, Saudi Arabia. Basically, under the terms of the deal, as we understand [0:19] them, Saudi Arabia will be able to develop a civilian nuclear program, which does include [0:24] enriching uranium, which can be weaponized. And in exchange, American companies will make [0:30] billions by building the infrastructure for said program. That's basically the terms of the deal. [0:35] Now, if you know anything about the art of Donald Trump's dealmaking, and at this point, don't we [0:38] all, you're not going to be shocked to learn the deal is a lot less impressive than it looks. [0:43] In fact, it seems to be already falling apart. Today, after the agreement was already signed, [0:48] right, they announced the agreement, the agreement signed, there's pen and paper. [0:50] Donald Trump is desperately trying to alter the terms via social media, writing the agreement, [0:57] quote, is totally subject to Saudi Arabia, joining the very respected and successful [1:01] Abraham records. In other words, normalizing relations with Israel. Now, the Saudis have [1:06] long maintained that such a process would require Israel to recognize a Palestinian state, [1:11] which Benjamin Netanyahu's extreme right wing government has vowed will never happen. [1:16] And that's even before Israel responded to the October 7th terror attacks by a mass campaign of [1:21] death and destruction in Gaza that killed an estimated 15,000 children. So the Saudis are, I think it's fair [1:27] to say, not pleased with the alteration to the deal they already made, announced the day after on [1:34] social media. The entire thing might fall apart now. Who knows? Because of the slapdash way Donald [1:38] Trump put the whole thing together. And now, basically, everyone is furious with him. And the [1:42] Israelis are really furious because the deal left out the only part they care about, right? The Saudis are [1:49] presumably not going to agree to join the Abraham Accords. The Middle East Hawks here at home think the deal [1:54] was too lenient in its safeguards against the Saudis possibly making a nuclear weapon since [1:58] they're not going to be able to enrich uranium. And so now Trump's secretary of state has to run [2:02] defense for him. Doesn't having a less than gold standard agreement in the Middle East run a risk? [2:10] Well, I'm not going to opine directly on that agreement. We're going to put out [2:13] even when the moment is appropriate, we'll put out that in writing. We have to do it with Congress [2:19] anyways. So we'll certainly do it publicly. But suffice it to say, the U.S. is not going to reach any [2:24] agreement with any country in the world that leads to the risk of proliferation. [2:30] I mean, in point of fact here, Marco, the reason you're being asked about this is the president put [2:34] out the announcement of the deal, right? Frankly, it's kind of beside the point. The Saudis have a [2:39] mutual defense pact with Pakistan, which does quite famously have nuclear weapons. It's long been [2:44] speculated the kingdom could simply acquire nuclear weapon from them if it's so desired. But the hawks are [2:50] still angry. Everyone is angry. And so we were forced to ask the question, where did this come from? [2:55] Why did Donald Trump make this deal, announce this deal that everyone suddenly hates so much? [3:00] And there's a few possibilities worth considering, which are illuminating [3:03] to the broader context we find ourselves in. One is that he is completely flailing in the Middle [3:10] East right now. I mean, hour to hour, minute to minute. The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen are [3:16] firing at Saudi tankers in the Red Sea across from the Strait of Homeland. This is another shipping [3:21] channel, which could lead to a wider regional conflict. It also means that oil can't get out of [3:25] there. Iran, meanwhile, has kept the Strait of Hormuz shut. They've been firing on oil tankers. [3:30] Passage through the Strait is back down to the low, low levels it was during the hottest days of the [3:35] war. Oil, in turn, has crossed $100 a barrel again. Gas prices then, as the dominoes fall, [3:42] are back up well over $4 and still rising very, very quickly. I bet you've noticed this [3:47] in the last few days. I sure have. Trump is also cratering in the polls. The last few days have [3:52] seen some of his worst polling we've seen this year by far. He's responding by threatening war [3:57] crimes constantly on the phone, on TV, on social media, which the populace, by the way, [4:03] has no appetite for. And throughout all this, Fox is basically looking into the camera and [4:08] begging him to end this war. I think the president's in kind of a tough spot here in [4:14] that sense. And he promised to keep us out of endless wars or unsatisfactory wars. And now he's [4:23] in one and it's not at all clear how it's going to end. So he's vulnerable on this point. And I was [4:28] in political terms, he does need to get this over with. And with the midterm elections a little [4:32] more than 100 days away, the clock is ticking for President Trump to get out of this war before [4:37] voters head to the polls. It's making a lot of Republicans nervous. It's already, as we know, [4:41] unpopular. According to the New Washington Post, Ipsos polls, 69% of Americans disapprove of the [4:48] handling of this conflict. Republicans cannot let this become an endless distraction, especially [4:54] if they want to win in November. Wrap it up, says Laura Ingram. Let's get this show on the road. [5:00] Okay, so one possibility is given all that context, Trump's just desperate for a win, right? Like, [5:05] oh, look at this. Look, I did something. Maybe he thought a deal with the Saudis would somehow give [5:09] him a parachute to escape the political crisis of his own making he is currently trapped in. [5:13] It's not exactly clear how he thought that would happen, but it would at least explain why he rushed [5:18] into an agreement he is now desperately trying to get out of and renegotiate the terms of less than [5:23] 24 hours after announcing. Of course, the other possible reason Donald Trump made this deal, [5:28] and one we truly have to consider, is that there was a quid pro quo after all. It's just not the one [5:34] that Israel wanted. After all, Donald Trump's family sure does make a lot of money from the [5:40] Saudis. Remember when the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund gave Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, [5:45] $2 billion out of the gate for his investment firm over objections from some of its advisors who on the [5:52] board of the fund were like, this doesn't check out. Why are we doing this? And keep in mind, [5:56] Jared Kushner is still gallivanting around the region with Trump's buddy Steve Witkos ostensibly trying to [6:02] broker peace deals while also continuing to raise money for the fund. Meanwhile, the Trump [6:06] organization has a $10 billion deal to develop a bunch of so-called luxury properties throughout [6:11] Saudi Arabia, including in Riyadh and on the West Coast near the Red Sea. In fact, as Forbes reports [6:17] in 2024 alone, Trump and his family made an estimated $50 million just from their dealing to Saudi [6:23] Arabia. Of course, Trump says he doesn't do any of this wheeling and dealing directly. This is all taken [6:30] care of by someone else, and it has no impact on what he does in president. And you can decide if [6:34] you think that's credible. Regardless, no one disputes his family benefits financially. That's [6:39] not, no one's disputing or denying that. When you consider that context, it seems at least possible [6:44] that Trump would want to cut the Saudis a pretty friendly deal. And again, it is not like this is [6:50] unprecedented. We've just been through this. Right before the inauguration, right before, an official [6:55] from the United Arab Emirates, just down the peninsula from Saudi Arabia, quietly struck a half a [7:01] billion-dollar deal with the crypto company founded by the sons of Donald Trump and, oh, look at that, [7:07] Steve Wyckoff. Not long after, the Trump administration reversed course on a Bidenary [7:11] policy and allowed the UAE to purchase and import high-end processing chips used for AI that had been [7:18] banned before that they desperately wanted to get their hands on. The White House would like you to [7:23] believe that was a coincidence. What I will say is that it sure looks like on multiple occasions now, [7:30] the Trump family received a quid from a foreign government shortly before that country received [7:34] a quo from us, the United States, via official policy. At the end of the day, we can't really [7:40] say for certain if this deal was born of flanneling incompetence or corruption or some combination of [7:46] both or some other third thing. All we can say definitively is that every single decision this [7:51] president makes, almost without fail, particularly in this region, is making everything worse. [7:58] Today, Brent crude oil, which helps determine the price of globally traded oil, [8:02] closed at more than $100 a barrel for the first time since May, thanks to a war that is not only [8:08] escalating but widening. Take a look at the map you can see on your screen. This is published by [8:14] The New York Times today, which shows how Iran is continuing to target U.S. military sites in the [8:19] region and how it's really expanded over the last several weeks. Also today, Iranian-backed Houthi [8:24] rebels attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and threatened to shut down that key waterway, [8:29] a move that would cause prices to skyrocket even higher. And consider already, even before that, [8:35] where gas prices already are. Just take a look at some headlines from across the country. Here's one. [8:40] Average gas price returns to $4 a gallon. Here's another one from Arizona. Gas prices jumped 37 cents in a [8:46] week. And in Arkansas, gas prices jumped 24 cents. North Carolina gas prices climbed. Drivers say they feel the [8:52] pinched. Michigan gas prices up again, as well as in Texas and Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Colorado, [8:59] on and on and on, and probably wherever you are living as well. And right now, there are no signs that this war is [9:04] going to end anytime soon. In fact, most of the signs we're seeing point to the opposite. Trump told Axios today that he is [9:12] close to a decision on launching another massive attack on Iran. It does not take a rocket scientist to know that [9:18] accelerating this war could send energy prices even higher than they already are. But exactly how bad can [9:25] they get? And what would it take to see some relief? I think this is probably something you are all [9:30] wondering. Thankfully, my next guest is a perfect person to ask about all of this. Joining me now is [9:35] Amos Hochstein, one of the world's leading experts on energy security and diplomacy, who served in both [9:41] the Biden and Obama administrations. It's good to see you. Thank you for being here. [9:45] Good to be back. Okay. Back in March, you were here. We were not even one month into the war. And I [9:52] asked, I spoke, we talked about the impact on oil and gas prices. And you said at the time, [9:56] we were experiencing the worst energy crisis the world has ever seen. How would you describe it now? [10:03] Getting worse. So look, I think that a large reason why we ended up in this bizarre MOU between [10:11] Trump administration and Iran was because he finally realized what I was saying on TV and others [10:17] were telling him, look, if we continue the war at a steady pace, he was weeks away from getting to [10:23] what's called tank bottoms, where you can't get more oil out or more gasoline out. And we're going [10:28] to go towards crisis. He had weeks away from from that catastrophic event. So he decided to do the MOU [10:35] in a very hurried way, which you can tell by reading the MOU. It's a page and a half [10:40] to end a war. And the problems that we're having right now in the war are resulting from how quickly [10:47] that was drafted because it has ambiguous language that the Iranians read one way, the U.S. reads a [10:53] different way. And that's why we're back in this conflict now. So but something even worse happened [11:00] just in the last few weeks, over the last several months, Ukrainians have been successfully attacking [11:07] the Russian oil infrastructure, their refineries. So now we have two wars that are colliding and [11:14] coalescing in the worst way possible for oil markets, for gasoline, for diesel, for jet fuel. [11:20] Russia was 11 percent of the diesel export market. They're at zero now. All of their refineries are [11:27] basically up in flames. Today, just today, a few hours ago, Kazakhstan announced so much damage, [11:33] they're stopping their exports through Russia. So it just gets compounded. And everything you've [11:38] said, the Houthis have now come in. So in April, so March, April, May, we have a war that we have [11:44] tools to answer. Now we're going back to war. Those tools, some of them still exist. Some of them are [11:50] gone. They don't exist anymore. And the ones that we have are diminishing. And we have another war [11:54] that is combining with the Iran war. And it's all about availability out there in the oil markets, [12:00] as I've learned from you and many others from working together before. I think people watching [12:05] have probably seen also, and you just referenced the Houthis. I talked about it earlier as well. I [12:08] mean, and I referenced how the Houthi attacked some Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea today. [12:14] There's also been this threat of traffic being cut off, not just in the Strait of Hormuz, [12:19] of course, but also in the place in the Red Sea where ships also go through. What would the impact [12:26] of that be if that is really brought to a halt? So that is really bad because what happens when [12:33] we shut down the Straits, the Saudis and the UAE are the only ones that have infrastructure to go [12:39] around the UAE, sorry, around Iran or the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. If you suddenly attack [12:45] the Saudi ships where they did in what's called the Bab al-Mandab crossing and Yanbu, which is the [12:52] area in Saudi Arabia where they load the ships, then you've taken the alternatives. So now you've [12:57] taken millions of barrels that have been able to make them themselves onto the market are now gone [13:03] because that route and two ships turn around a minute, you turn, turn around. And now even if [13:09] they do go through, the risk premiums are high. So the insurance rates go up. If we're going to go [13:15] 10 ships a day, we're now down to two because everybody's a little bit sluggish. Who pays the [13:19] price for all of these things? Ultimately, the consumer, because we can't get oil out. We can't [13:24] get gasoline out or diesel. That's why we're already at $4.10 on average in the country. It's going up [13:31] from here and probably significantly. Some states had suspended their gas taxes, gasoline taxes, [13:38] but they're supposed to come back now. So all the prices are now going back and into this [13:43] environment. The president has just said, we're going to go to a bigger war, a more expansive [13:48] war. And the Houthis are saying, well, we're activated. So now we have the Houthis in the Red [13:54] Sea. We have the Iranians on the Strait of Hormuz and the Ukrainians attacking the Russian [14:00] infrastructure. This is too much pressure for any of our tools to really work anymore. So consumers [14:07] need to know if you see a headline that Trump says we're going back to war or they see a headlines [14:12] were striking again. Go fill up your car. It's going to get much more expensive. [14:17] I'm going to speak for everybody watching right now who's hearing you say that. [14:20] How high could it go? You referenced it kind of hitting a bottom. Are we close to that? What [14:26] does that look like? And how high this if this continues another month, another two months [14:30] as you're projecting out? What does that look like in terms of gas prices? [14:33] It can't continue for another two months, because if you continue in this rate the way we are right [14:38] now for two months, our economy can't, the structures of our economy will fall apart, [14:43] because the SPR is not endless. We're strategic petroleum reserve. It's going to go below 300, [14:50] probably next week, 300 million barrels. It hasn't been that low in 40 years. We also took a lot out [14:57] during the rush to Ukraine, but never this low. Once it goes below 300, towards 250, the structure [15:03] itself starts, the integrity of the structure starts getting questioned, and how much you can [15:07] take out gets lower. So it can continue. Prices will go up. We're probably on the march to $4.50. [15:14] We're now at $4.10. If we keep going into war, we'll be at $5, and from there it goes up, [15:20] and people will have to stop living their lives the way they were. Because remember, gasoline is [15:27] important when we fill up our cars, but diesel is like the lubricant of the American economy. [15:33] The food in your supermarket comes to the supermarket on a truck that's hauling it for a long time. [15:38] All the products, all those Amazon delivery trucks that are arriving in your house, all that's on [15:42] trucks. All that goes on diesel. When diesel prices go this high, it gets very expensive. And here's the [15:48] other thing that happens. The Treasury notes, how we borrow money in the United States, are also climbing [15:55] very fast over the last week or two. We're at really high levels. That means that the inflation [16:01] rates go up. That means interest rates go up. Everybody's costs are going to go up, [16:06] not just at your gas station, but in your supermarket and all the products that you're [16:11] just before you think about going back to school, all the products you're going to buy, [16:15] they're all going to cost more. [16:16] Amos, I don't know if you've calmed anyone, but you've certainly, well, that wasn't the goal. I [16:20] think you've given people a really clear picture of what to expect and what they should prepare for [16:25] as this war continues. Thank you so much for being here. [16:26] Or we don't go back to war. Well, that's the hope, but we don't know how this is ending. [16:30] And that's the big question. Thank you again. Remember Greenwater Services, the company that [16:37] got a no-bid contract to clean up the algae-filled reflecting pool? It turns out that wasn't the [16:42] first no-bid government contract they're accused of botching. About a year earlier, Greenwater, [16:47] owned by a longtime Trump supporter, received a $2.4 million, again, no-bid contract, [16:54] to treat a health-threatening sewage crisis in California's Tijuana River using its nanobubble [17:01] technology. It did not go so well. About a month after they started the project, [17:06] a storm flooded that river and washed away some of the company's equipment, which leaked diesel [17:11] into the river. Oscar Romo, executive director of the conservation nonprofit Alterterra, [17:18] has been working on cleaning up that river for nearly 50 years. He shared these photos [17:23] right here with The Moment, showing the equipment strewn across the cleanup site. [17:30] Nothing got better, he told us. He actually argued it got a whole lot worse. [17:34] Greenwater disputes Romo's account, telling The Moment just one trailer drifted downstream [17:39] and was recovered. As for the diesel spill, which it appears you can see in one of Romo's photos, [17:47] the company confirmed it, acknowledging a small spill in a report filed with the federal government, [17:52] while also maintaining the experience-generated valuable scientific data. [17:57] And the government appears to agree, arguing despite the need for significant modifications [18:03] to that equipment, the project was a success. Does everyone agree? Well, a leading researcher, [18:10] Dr. Kim Prather, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, told us, [18:15] there just wasn't enough data collected to say that. In fact, she says she warned Greenwater [18:21] that the Tijuana River was too volatile for those nanobubblers, for that technology. [18:27] Greenwater didn't respond to her claims. Ultimately, she, along with other experts on that river, [18:32] argued the project was not only reckless by Greenwater, but a waste of taxpayer money. [18:39] Nevertheless, a year later, Greenwater was back, this time deploying their nanobubbles to the [18:46] reflecting pool. Greenwater claims it worked over there, clearing the pool of algae. Today, [18:52] however, the reflecting pool is empty, drained for yet another round of repairs. [18:57] I wish my name was Hunter Biden. I could go abroad, make millions off of my father's presidency. [19:05] I'd be a really rich guy. Do you think we couldn't find that? [19:12] Don't sell yourself short, Don Jr. You've made billions. That was Donald Trump Jr. [19:19] on with Sean Hannity yucking it up back in 2019, perhaps manifesting, being able to exploit his father's [19:26] name for massive profits. New reporting in the New York Times shows just how massively [19:32] Donald Trump Jr. has exploited his father's presidency for personal profit and gain. [19:38] From that blockbuster New York Times report, quote, [19:41] what sets apart the latest moves by Donald Trump Jr. is how he and his business partner [19:46] through their investment firm 1789 Capital are cashing in on the policies of the current [19:51] administration openly and without apology. Many of the companies that 1789 has invested in [19:57] have large government contracts, while others like Polymarket have benefited directly from new [20:03] Trump policies or rollbacks of existing laws. The firm bought shares in some of the most coveted [20:08] private companies before many went public, often by leveraging their political and business connections [20:14] to secure a stake or to help boost the company's sales. New York Times also reports this, quote, [20:20] just two years ago, 1789 managed a few hundred million dollars. It now oversees more than three [20:27] billion dollars. Its main investment fund generated returns of roughly 200 percent as of June 30th, [20:33] according to a person familiar with the firm's performance. In the statement to the New York [20:38] Times, Donald Trump Jr. said that as a private citizen, he's free to invest however he wants and is [20:43] doing nothing illegal. And as Donald Trump and his administration asked Congress for billions more in [20:49] defense spending for his deeply unpopular war with Iran, the Washington Post reports that the Trump [20:54] brothers have invested in companies that stand to profit from exactly that spending. They write this, [21:00] quote, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump have amassed a portfolio of defense technology startups [21:06] that are benefiting from new Pentagon priorities and spending. Funds linked to the Trump brothers have [21:12] invested in more than a dozen defense tech companies and other firms seeking businesses from the Pentagon and [21:18] federal agencies, the Washington Post analysis finds. Most of the investments have taken place since [21:23] Donald Trump was elected president for a second time. The companies have collectively generated at [21:29] least three point two billion dollars in direct government business since the Suns invested in an [21:35] additional three point one billion dollars in future contract options. Some have gained coveted spots on [21:41] short lists of pre-approved contractors that can bid exclusively on up to nearly 200 billion dollars [21:47] in future work. Company representatives who responded to the Washington Post's request for comment stated [21:53] that the companies had secured their business with the federal government through rigorous Pentagon [21:59] contracting processes. I want to bring in Norm Eisen. He's the co-founder and board member of [22:04] Democracy Defenders Action and publisher of The Contrarian. Also joining us, political analyst and Bloomberg [22:10] Opinions senior executive editor Tim O'Brien. Tim, I want to start with you. Were either the Trump [22:15] son's successful investors before Donald Trump was president a second time? You know, Nicole, there's [22:22] this old Steve Martin joke, I think from like the 70s that went, I'm going to teach you how to become a [22:29] millionaire. Step one, find a million dollars. And the Trumps have updated that basically to, I'm going to tell you [22:38] how to become a billionaire, become president of the United States, and then your children can also share in the [22:43] riches. Because the only reason that Donald Trump, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and his two eldest sons [22:51] are raking in the money like this is because Donald Trump sits in the Oval Office. There's absolutely no [22:57] other reason for it. Donald Trump Jr.'s first job when he finished college was as a bartender, [23:04] and then he went to work for his father. None of it involved investing or managing money at this scale [23:11] with eye-popping returns that most professional managers who had a lifetime of experience [23:17] and expertise and insight into financial markets and on and on and on could never match. And every [23:25] excuse that the Trumps put up to explain this away that somehow in Donald Trump's first administration, [23:32] because they were so interested in public service, they bypassed being able to make money. So now [23:37] they decided to make money, which is completely a bogus explanation for what they're doing, [23:43] or that it's not illegal. Well, it isn't illegal, but it should be banned, because they're doing this [23:50] at the expense of the American people. They're doing it at the expense of our national security. [23:55] They're doing it at the expense of our global reputation. And no one is constraining them, [24:02] including and especially members of the Republican Party. So when Jim Jordan and Josh Hawley are busy [24:10] chasing Jack Smith around the block with these shallow, baseless complaints that he is somehow [24:19] ethically challenged and they don't say a word about the multi-billion dollar grift going on in [24:26] the White House right in front of them, we're in a perilous time. We can't be more mad though than [24:35] Trump's own voter. And I wonder, Norm Eisen, you've been on these issues. You've sort of been a moral [24:42] player in the political arena for your whole career. How do you make people understand that he's robbing [24:51] them? This isn't money that is zero sum. They're enriching themselves at the expense of the people [24:58] who sent Donald Trump to Washington to make their lives better. That's right, Nicole. And when you [25:06] look at the sheer sums that are involved, the 1789 capital, it's like a natural experiment. [25:16] When Trump came back into office, Don Jr.'s firm was at about $200 million. Now it's got assets under [25:27] management of over $3 billion. Is it just a coincidence that over this past year and a half, [25:35] Don Jr.'s business acumen has suddenly exploded? I don't think so. Tim has levied a devastating [25:44] indictment of the business capacities of the Trump children. I think that the sheer scale of the [25:55] numbers here are starting to break through to the American people, that this is not what they put [26:03] Donald Trump in office for Donald Trump in office for. The president himself has made billions on crypto, [26:13] while investors have lost almost twice that amount. So when you combine these scandals, and the numbers [26:25] are scandalous, including Pentagon investments, direct investments in Trump family businesses by the [26:37] government, when you combine them with the other corruption scandals we've covered, whether it's the [26:44] Epstein files, or the Trump slush fund, or the Kennedy Center appropriating it for himself, [26:53] Trump's own voters are getting the idea. Gee, maybe he's not in the Oval Office to help me. He is there to [27:02] help himself and his family. And that's why you see Democrats ahead on the generic ballot. There was a [27:11] poll today, 11 percent, Nicole. Trump's own base is contributing to that hemorrhaging. [27:19] Donald Trump is facing new backlash from the right as the Iran war spirals, the economy sputters, [27:26] and the midterm elections loom. Today, Congress dealt Trump a new bipartisan rebuke over the Iran war. [27:33] Four Republicans in the House joined Democrats to pass a measure directing Trump to seek authorization for [27:40] the war. The measure also got some GOP support in the Senate before ultimately stalling out. [27:47] The price of oil is now back above $100 per barrel on average. Gas prices are now over $4 a gallon. [27:56] Here's Republican Senator Rand Paul weighing in. [27:59] I think the Iran war has not been a success. I've been opposed to the Iran war from the beginning. [28:08] I think by any objective measure we're worse off than we were before the war. [28:13] Will there be backlash in November? Probably. [28:17] That was Senator Rand Paul predicting some backlash in November. And right on cue, new polling today [28:26] shows that Democrats hold an 11-point lead over Republicans when presented with a generic midterm [28:33] ballot. Also today, Fox News is out with a poll that, according to the Daily Beast, is, quote, [28:40] humiliating to the president. The poll shows that 76% call the president's economy fair or poor. Just 24% [28:51] say it's excellent or good. And that's not all. Take a listen. [28:55] The president who campaigned on the economy now receiving negative marks on the issue, [29:01] with 65% saying they disapprove of his performance. [29:05] Voters favored Democrats by 22 points on income inequality. Dems are up 21 points on health care. [29:12] They're up 10 on inflation. They're also leading on the economy, foreign policy, government spending, [29:19] even immigration. And take a listen to Fox Business host Larry Kudlow, [29:26] who served in Trump's first administration. He's here confronting a Republican senator. [29:30] Call it swag, swagger, riz, aura, or just plain messaging. But the GOP doesn't have it. [29:42] You're bungling everything. Nothing is getting done. Your messaging is non-existent. You've lost your [29:48] swag, your swagger, your riz, or whatever the young people say. No one knows what the heck you're [29:53] doing, sir. They have no idea. Joining me now is Molly Jung-Fast, [30:01] contributing writer for the New York Times and MSNOW political analyst and host of the Fast [30:06] Politics podcast, and someone who is literally dripping in riz. [30:10] Oh, wow. Okay. [30:13] It's got to be said. Has the Republican Party lost its riz? Are they no longer aura-forming? [30:19] Let's just say that, by the way, Larry Kudlow doing a monologue that involves riz, [30:25] or a foreign farming. It's a much longer monologue than just the piece you played. And it is nothing [30:32] I ever thought I would see Larry Kudlow say. And it's interesting to me because what the subtext [30:39] of it is he's running cover for Trump, right? He's figuring out people to blame. And we've seen [30:44] different machinations, sort of variations on this in Fox Business and Fox Regular. And it is all, [30:53] when they start to deviate messaging-wise, when that starts happening, that's because [30:58] things have spiraled out of control. And that's what we're watching right now. [31:02] So how bad is it? I mean, have they lost core elements of their base? Or is this just sort of [31:08] the standard kind of stuff that you can expect from a very unpopular war, a pretty bad economy, [31:13] and the fact that the midterms were always a time that the Republicans were likely to take some losses? [31:17] Okay. So if you look at the 2018 midterms, that we had are, you know, it was a D plus eight. [31:24] And that was a shellacking for Trump. These were seen polls. I mean, this D plus 11 poll may be an [31:31] outlier because- That's the Democrats up by 11 points. Right. That's the generic ballot for Democrats [31:38] up by 11 points. But if that happens, it's game over for Republicans. I mean, 11 points is [31:45] like a sweep to end all sweeps. Now- Is this the war? [31:49] I think, well, and I'm going to refer you to a Politico poll where, which was from yesterday, [31:55] which one in five self-proclaimed MAGAs want the war to end today. They don't care how, [32:02] they just want it done. And I think that's a pretty striking number. And I would think, [32:08] you know, there was another war powers resolution today. Representative Jaipal, [32:14] also Jason Crow was in there. I texted with him a little bit, talked to him about it. And, [32:20] you know, what I think is so interesting about these war powers resolutions are, [32:24] A, you had four Republicans vote with it. Yeah. And B, like, these are post-Nixonian [32:29] anti-corruption, you know, right? This is from Vietnam. We have these War Powers Act because [32:35] Congress was not supposed to lose its power like they did during Vietnam. [32:39] Right. So we have Congress pushing back on this. So that's nice to see Congress [32:44] off the couch. We also see voters weighing in here. So I want to take a listen to some sound [32:48] from Trump voters in North Carolina who talk to MSNOW about the war. Let's take a listen. [32:53] President Trump campaigned on no more foreign wars. You've obviously supported him. [32:58] Three times. Three times. Very disappointed. My entire family is very disappointed. [33:04] You could talk directly to the president. We know he likes to watch TV. [33:08] What would you tell him about this war? President Trump, you shouldn't have got [33:14] us in this war and was going to end it fast soon. And now you're starting all over again. [33:20] This war has been, uh, it's been taxing on everyone and I'm, I'm on a fixed income. And, [33:25] and so it's, uh, you know, other ones that don't fix the income or, I mean, I'm really feeling it. [33:31] How could the Democrats harness this all the way to November? If they can, [33:39] can they keep up this momentum? So something that's working [33:41] well for Democrats, I think, and a sign that voters sort of understand the gas prices are so [33:47] tied to this war is that, you know, Brent crude went to over $100 a gallon, $100 a barrel. Trump [33:56] said, we're going to get a ceasefire. We're going to get a ceasefire. We're in a ceasefire. [34:00] The war's over. It's, you know, we have all these quotes of him saying the war's over. [34:03] Uh, crude went down, gas prices went down, and then the ceasefire did not hold and gas prices [34:10] went up. So it's very easy to see, to make the connection between gas prices and the war. And [34:16] remember, unlike other Republican presidents who have gotten us into war with the Middle East, [34:22] he never made a, you know, the story of why this war is happening keeps changing. Right. And that's [34:28] another thing. And that goes back to this idea that when they can't, when they get in trouble is when [34:32] they can't all be in lockstep, when the messaging starts to devolve into different strains. So I think [34:39] that's what we're seeing here. Again, look, Democrats need to keep it together. They need to [34:44] keep the coalition together. Like, you know, it's a big tent. They got to make sure everybody's in the tent. [34:50] And then, and that, you know, is not necessarily, you know, it could be problematic. Um, and they need to [34:57] run on one thing, affordability.