MAGA Red melts into BLUE surge — The Beat with Ari Melber Weekly Highlights

[0:00] 15 days until the midterms, the home stretch. [0:03] Many have voted. [0:04] Republicans are scrambling. [0:06] The bad timing, the bad weeks for Donald Trump, the range of problems are coming at the worst possible political time [0:12] as people either do the early vote or make up their minds, [0:15] hardening perceptions that would be hard for Republicans to reverse at this point. [0:19] Trump's campaign stops reflect defense. [0:21] He continues to basically go to red districts that they used to easily carry. [0:27] That's maybe the only place he thinks he can help, [0:29] but it's also, by definition, a place they think needs a presidential campaign touch that they're worried about losing. [0:36] Again, whether or not the president's helps anywhere in the country is an open question [0:40] when the numbers hit these new lows of 30 percent plus, 30, 33. [0:45] Democrats have a midterm edge, the Washington Post reports. [0:48] Trump's crash in approval reflects many things. [0:52] A kind of reminder of what it means when he's in charge, [0:56] something that, of course, can hurt him if people, after four years off, kind of forgot what it was like. [1:03] Fatigue with the way he governs. [1:05] A realization that the second term is, in many ways, more troubled and extreme than his first term. [1:10] And then, of course, the war, which has juiced the very high prices that he ran against last time. [1:15] The Treasury Secretary was pressed on this. [1:18] What do you say to voters right now who say they are struggling and they want change? [1:27] Well, why don't we revisit the Biden era policies where the American people got smoked? [1:33] I hear you blaming President Biden, but President Trump has been in office now for 636 days. [1:38] That's about a year and a half. [1:39] And inflation was at 3 percent when he took office. [1:43] It's 3.7 percent now. [1:45] At what point does the administration take responsibility for the economy and say, this is the Trump economy? [1:50] Well, we will own the economy. [1:54] The Trump economy is bad and everybody knows it. [1:57] People know he's been president now and he's almost halfway through his second and final term. [2:01] So they know it's Trump's economy and they know the economy is bad for all the reasons we're living through. [2:07] You don't need a news anchor to remind you. [2:08] And so faced with that situation, right, Republicans haven't really found that it works to anger people further and lie about the fact that it's a bad economy. [2:19] So blame the other guy. [2:21] Are you this is all two years back? [2:23] That's what you just saw there is kind of the homestretch of the midterms. [2:27] And they know these questions are going to come up. [2:29] And I guess that very weak answer was the best they could come up with after however much brainstorming. [2:34] GOP lawmakers are starting a blame game, which basically means they already expect to lose. [2:42] They expect there to be stories and recriminations about it. [2:45] And they are pre-pointing the finger at the White House, according to Politico. [2:49] You have another pollster who says we are winning because they're losing, referring to Democrats, [2:52] and they're losing dramatically with every action the president's taken. [2:56] There's almost no state where Democrats cannot compete in November. [2:59] And this is an interesting way to put it. [3:01] This Democratic pollster, Anzalone, says America is now the battleground state. [3:08] Now, when Republicans are bracing, there are also warnings about what might happen if Donald Trump thinks that they're obviously going to lose badly [3:16] and he should try to cheat either in advance or to overthrow the loss. [3:20] In normal times, a news anchor saying that might sound like, gosh, that seems really like a negative thing to say about a sitting president. [3:29] But unlike most other sitting presidents, Donald Trump was caught and his supporters were convicted of exactly these plots. [3:36] So this is the baseline. [3:38] This is what he's done when faced with losses. [3:40] ProPublica reporting that DHS officials looked at an agency that was protecting election systems. [3:46] That was a concern to some staff. [3:48] The agency was directed, quote, not to alert the voting machine company if it uncovered flaws, contrary to its standard practices. [3:54] That obviously raises suspicion. [3:56] There was no comment officially from DHS. [3:59] Meanwhile, a Utah official, a Republican, says the feds are actually the problem. [4:04] In the past, two elections that I oversaw as lieutenant governor, the threats were all external. [4:13] Non-state actors, cybersecurity threats and other things. [4:18] But now we also have threats coming from within our own government. [4:23] Your federal government. [4:25] That's right. [4:26] You have that kind of old school 60 minute style where, you know, there's vague code words. [4:34] The federal government. [4:35] Huh. [4:36] Who would that be? [4:38] But of course, if you just call it out, that doesn't make it more or less partisan. [4:42] The federal government, of course, is run by Donald Trump and the elections are more in danger. [4:47] And more work must be done from journalists covering it to the people and the citizenry being ready for it to local officials having to deal with it. [4:54] More work must be done because we have someone who, of course, fomented an insurrection and then pardoned the violent people who did the insurrection. [5:00] It's one of those things, one of those weird aspects of the midterms that we're living through that in establishment circles and some other sort of elite spaces, it's almost considered partisan or rude to point out the fact of what they did. [5:13] And this is, of course, the first election since Donald Trump has amassed power and is back in charge, raising the questions of whether they will try to redo any aspects of Jan 6th, either in the midterms or the later presidential. [5:26] And then there's the question of ongoing intimidation tactics. [5:29] If you know history, you know that long predates this particular MAGA movement. [5:34] The Trump DOJ was pressed on that. [5:39] Is the administration planning to send ICE agents out to the polling places? [5:45] There's no plan to do that. [5:47] I don't know what's going to happen, but I can tell you that absent some shocking contingency that is unexpected, there should be no interruption in the usual course of counting and certifying the results in the states. [6:01] That is the answer you're supposed to get from the DOJ. [6:07] And apparently, even though we've dealt with a lot of problems coming out of DOJ, including the revenge lawsuits and indictments and investigations that seem very clearly to be an abuse of power on behalf of Donald Trump's requests, [6:18] there are still some people there who basically try to say the right thing instead of fomenting more fear about ICE or the polling locations, [6:26] something that the attorney general, who's above the rank of who you just heard from, has at times done, apparently, to please Donald Trump. [6:33] This is the state of play, 15 days out, Republicans trailing, talking about blaming each other for or blaming the White House for their expected loss. [6:42] A lot of indications that people are done with Trump, his war, and the economy, and that the enthusiasm is running for the Democrats and against Republican incumbents. [6:52] What does that tell you about what's going to happen? [6:55] Well, officially, nothing. [6:57] We will wait and see what the people say and the votes indicate when we get to election night, 15 days from tonight. [7:03] With that in mind, the state of play and a little humility about not knowing the future, I want to bring in our panel, Brett Mycelis, the co-founder of the Influential Midas Touch Network. [7:13] That has become a progressive media juggernaut. [7:15] His new book is actually out tomorrow, WTF America, The Way Out of This Hell and Back to Democracy. [7:22] And we're also here with Democratic strategist Alencia Johnson, who knows her way around all of these issues. [7:27] Welcome to both of you, Alencia. [7:29] Alencia, we are in this homestretch. [7:30] A lot of voter decisions are being made, and they don't tend to reverse themselves when the economy is like this. [7:38] What do you see out there? [7:40] Listen, I think I was really encouraged by this weekend. [7:44] You saw all over the country the No Kings protests. [7:47] But even last week, we saw HBCU students in North Carolina marching by the hundreds to their polling location in North Carolina. [7:57] And so what that is showing me is that there is a contingent all over the country, even in places that, like you showed what Donald Trump's upcoming campaign stops, even in places that Republicans could bank on, there are places where folks are fired up. [8:12] And they're tired of these policies, as well as the corruption coming out of the Republican Party. [8:20] I don't want to just blame it all on Donald Trump. [8:22] He's only able to do this because the Republican Party, those in Congress and the Senate, are doing his bidding for them. [8:29] To the point that you made about persuading people, we're 15 days out. [8:33] People have made up their mind as to whether or not they are going to continue to support Donald Trump. [8:40] At this point now, it's a turnout game. [8:42] Republicans have made it a lot harder for Democrats because of gerrymandering, because of so many different laws. [8:48] And yet, I've heard so many stories of on-the-ground organizing, self-organizing that's happening. [8:54] Folks are excited to vote, getting their plans together, and we're seeing that in numbers. [8:59] Numbers are so scary that Meta silenced them over the weekend when that No King's Instagram account went down suspiciously. [9:07] What a peculiar time for that to happen. [9:10] You know, Brett, one mistake that we make in life and politics is thinking that things are the same as they were. [9:19] So you can go to a neighborhood and say, oh, this is what Brooklyn's like, and 10 years ago is different than now because things change and evolve. [9:27] And Trump seems to be this durable figure in American life, but this right now is not the Trump of two years ago. [9:33] Whatever people think about him, in October of that election, he was actually reaching some of his all-time highs in the national voting share. [9:43] As I mentioned tonight, Brett, he's at all-time lows. [9:45] On corruption, I'll put on the screen, 66 percent, that includes a heck of a lot of people who voted for Trump at least once, [9:52] 66 percent say he uses this office to enrich himself. [9:56] In other words, he's corrupt. [9:58] And I would say that's an indisputable fact if you just look at the evidence, the billions of dollars added to Donald Trump's net worth throughout this presidency. [10:08] And it really just goes to show you that in politics, things change very quickly. [10:13] That's why I was in such dismay after the November 2024 election, when we saw so many people bending the knee, [10:20] when we saw these tech executives, a lot of people in the media, a lot of these law firms doing everything they can to make their journey down to Mar-a-Lago, [10:28] to kiss the ring, to change their policies. [10:31] It just felt like a misread of the moment. [10:33] And they acted like Donald Trump had this massive mandate when he really only won by a very slim percentage. [10:40] And they went all in on him, abandoned all of their values that they claimed to have before then. [10:46] And now we see a massive shift, a massive political shift, a massive cultural shift, [10:51] because I think what we saw with Donald Trump is he came out instantly, shock and awe. [10:56] That was his strategy, shock and awe. [10:58] But he did not expect the people to stand up and stand firm to him. [11:03] And also, now here we are, years later, and everything just seems to be falling apart. [11:09] He's kind of started with the shock and awe of it all, almost like the end of Donald Trump's first term. [11:14] And now he seems to be devolving kind of into Trump 1.0, where you're seeing all these staffing issues and infighting [11:21] and people trying to get each other fired and people lasting five days in a job. [11:26] And it just reeks of not only incompetence, but it reeks of corruption, instability, [11:31] and it's everything the American people don't want right now. [11:36] Trump crashing out in this pivotal homestretch. [11:39] Now, how low has Trump gone? [11:41] Well, the approval is lower than Derrick's infamous claim that there were good people on both sides of that Charlottesville rally. [11:46] We have that photo to remind you of that low point. [11:49] He was talking about, quote, good people who were at a neo-Nazi and anti-Semitic demonstration. [11:55] Thirty-one percent lower than his Gallup approval rating after the Jan 6th insurrection he infamously fomented [12:01] when the country did unite against that violent, I should say, violent MAGA attack on democracy. [12:08] And if you look at a comparison of all Reuters polling, the new drop is the lowest level across both of his terms. [12:15] So how do Republicans even fashion a closing message right now when they have this record-breaking opposition [12:21] to their party leader, who they've given, of course, a blank check on everything from the war [12:26] and the gas prices that it obviously inflated to the tariffs undercutting the economy. [12:33] That is the baggage saddling Republicans as we see this homestretch clash right now, two weeks to Election Day. [12:40] Now, right now with us, our star midterm panel is about to break this down. [12:44] We are tracking the latest in these campaigns on the ground and on the airwaves. [12:47] Here is a new beat reel of this flurry of activity. [12:54] We can talk and we can complain and we can kick and we can scream, but this is where it matters. [12:59] When the bull becomes policy that's problematic, you get this November, which I have on my countdown clock as whoop-ass. [13:07] Gas is outrageous. [13:10] I just, I actually, when it comes to Trump, he did promise a lot and a lot didn't come through. [13:16] There was some talk of people who said, oh, he took a picture of President Trump off his website. [13:19] He's trying to distance himself, so what's your response to that? [13:22] I find it to be silly at this point. [13:23] The way Chris Pappas tells it, I'm President Trump's long-lost son. [13:29] I've never even met the man. [13:31] Rural voters backed President Trump with 63% support in 2024. [13:36] Now that's down to 49%. [13:39] The president has been out campaigning vigorously, but I'm not sure it's making any difference. [13:44] And what difference it makes, I'm not sure it's helping. [13:47] The Republican Party felt they needed to send the most powerful man in the country to try to save Roger Marshall. [13:52] I want to be a senator for every Texan who can't afford one. [13:56] I ran for office to love my neighbor through public policy, to make my neighbor's life easier and better. [14:03] I do genuinely still have hope for this country. [14:09] That's what we're hearing from some of the voters who are listening to those ads that are everywhere. [14:13] I have more to say on that in a moment and the way that the candidates, of course, are out on the stuff. [14:17] Now, these are battles that are being waged all over the place. [14:21] Trump is only in some places. [14:23] I can tell you tonight he's in North Carolina, which is a sign of political weakness because the Republicans already yanked money from the Senate race there. [14:31] They view it as a lost cause. [14:34] But then again, you've got to remember there are plenty of Republicans who'd rather Trump do what we might call political busywork somewhere that doesn't even matter, [14:41] as opposed to possibly dragging down other candidates who have a shot in more competitive areas. [14:48] We know the governor of the very red state of Texas recently avoided being seen with Trump for a single hour when that was a visit there, [14:57] telling you that Texas might be a little different today than it was even last cycle. [15:02] The evidence is also clear in the money Republicans are spending. [15:05] These homestretch ads are basically trying to find ways to go against what looks like it could be a revolt or a blue wave. [15:13] We don't know until we get to Election Day. [15:15] But the Republicans are spending money on ads that basically try to change the subject. [15:20] Talk about anything other than Trump. [15:22] And we can report most ads avoid him. [15:24] This is on TV and online. [15:26] Only a small fraction of ads in this pivotal homestretch even mention the president by name. [15:31] The Times reports Republicans trail even after spending $800 million on all of these Trump-less ads. [15:39] And that's just in the past few weeks. [15:41] The article I mentioned reports that fewer than 2% of the funding went to ads that even mentioned Trump. [15:49] Republicans may not have gotten it. [15:52] You might have accurately said for the last two years they didn't get it. [15:56] Supporting Trump doing anything and everything, kind of abdicating their responsibility in a co-equal branch, [16:01] letting him do things that were obviously traditionally anti-conservative, [16:05] like tariffs or expanding federal powers or using ICE to go after people in local areas, [16:11] which a traditional conservative might have an issue with. [16:14] They know how they got here. [16:15] They might not have gotten it. [16:16] But apparently, under the pressure of losing their jobby jobs, tonight they get it. [16:22] And they know that they lost over 40 seats the last time there was a Trump midterm race. [16:27] It's not like none of this has been sort of gamed out before. [16:29] Because after all the blank checks for Trump, now Republicans won't even say his name in their ads. [16:38] Trump is finally facing what many see as a Destiny's Child moment here within his own party. [16:44] He craves recognition. [16:46] He's practically begging, say my name. [16:49] He insists on campaigning with these trips in red states, even as this relationship breaks down. [16:56] So yes, they're acting kind of shady. [17:00] And why the sudden change, as the song asks? [17:03] Well, the change is a response to reality, to lies, to broken promises, [17:10] with many signs that most of the electorate thinks this particular breakup is long overdue. [17:18] I want to bring in our friend and colleague, Michael Steele, host of the Weeknight, [17:22] former RNC chair who knows his way around a lyric or two. [17:25] He's been doing that for years. [17:27] And Maya Wiley, who ran, of course, as a Democratic candidate for mayor in New York, [17:31] president and CEO of the Leadership Conference for Civil and Human Rights. [17:34] Maya, say my name, say my name, and Republicans won't. [17:40] And the money tells the story. [17:43] Well, when you have to run a campaign ad where you're running away from your highest elected [17:50] party member, yeah, you're in trouble. [17:53] It's also incredibly hard to run away from the fact that there's one party that is controlling [18:01] all of national government. [18:02] Yeah. [18:03] So you can't blame your way out of it on others, which is sadly what the president often tries [18:10] to do. [18:11] But it's also you can't run away from the fact of the way average voters are feeling because [18:19] they're experiencing what they're experiencing. [18:21] You can you can try to spin all you want, but you can't spin some dirty laundry without any [18:26] cleaning fluid. [18:28] And they don't have any because the gas pumps are what the gas pumps are. [18:34] The way that people are experiencing the cost of health care and having to make choices [18:38] between seeing a doctor when they're sick or paying for their housing. [18:42] The fact that groceries I mean, you know what we're seeing in gas prices is actually affecting [18:47] costs of living across the board in all kinds of ways. [18:50] You just can't run away from that. [18:53] And you can't run away from the fact that even self-identified Republican leaning or [18:58] conservative actually have a real problem with due process being violated because they [19:03] do understand that that's a central principle. [19:05] And what you mentioned, ICE, but we're seeing it in our polling. [19:09] People don't like it. [19:11] Michael, great to have you. [19:13] And loyal viewers know you're you're here a little early tonight because we hope to get [19:16] more of you on your own program. [19:18] But I mentioned, of course, the Destiny's Child bop, a classic. [19:24] But obviously, that's what everyone's been talking about around the country. [19:27] If anything, I'm late to it. [19:29] But say my name, Michael, is something that Trump would like. [19:32] He won't avoid Texas. [19:33] He won't avoid even states they've checked out of. [19:36] While the ads show Republicans want us, I guess, to forget what's been going on for two [19:40] years. Well, look, the reality of it is, you know, guys like Byron Donalds and others, you [19:48] know, sort of pretend that, you know, it's a joke and I don't understand what the big [19:53] deal is. [19:53] So why did you take his name off your website? [19:57] Why do you why do you pretend he's not your daddy anymore? [20:00] And that's that's the harsh reality for a lot of Republicans. [20:06] Nobody in the neighborhood likes your daddy and they don't want to vote for your daddy and [20:12] they don't want to spend time with your daddy. [20:14] And that reality is something that Republicans have to carry. [20:19] Many of us have been trying to warn for some time now that the party had to make a conscious [20:25] decision. You are either going to self-preserve or you will emulate in the flame of Donald [20:32] Trump. You are Icarus to his son. [20:36] And the reality of it is you had a chance not to even fly that high or get that close. [20:42] But you chose time after time, event after event, moment after moment to sign off on all [20:49] the crazy and all the stupid, on all the irregularities and the corruption. [20:55] You stayed silent when the country wanted you to say something. [20:59] And so now you're trying to pretend that that didn't happen. [21:03] You're trying to pretend we don't know who that is. [21:07] You're trying to pretend I never heard that before. [21:09] And we know because we live through it real time. [21:14] And so voters, you know this, Ari, from your coverage of politics. [21:18] Maya certainly knows it as as a student of politics and a candidate that a certain point [21:25] voters make up their mind. [21:26] And when they make up their mind, there's no turning back from that. [21:31] Well, I'll let you finish voters were made up this summer. [21:33] And here we are. [21:34] Michael, to that point, what did you think of Sununu running the ad we showed where he [21:39] says he never met Donald Trump? [21:40] Does that help him? [21:42] Is that worth paying money to run that ad right now? [21:44] It's in his mind. [21:46] It probably is in the voters mind. [21:49] They probably don't care because you have to understand this is where 20 2006 and 2010 [21:56] come together. [21:58] 2010, the brand 2006, the brand for the Republican Party sucked. [22:02] It was toxic as hell. [22:04] And and the R behind your name was a scarlet level letter. [22:08] That's this environment. [22:09] It doesn't matter whether or not you knew Donald Trump. [22:12] It doesn't matter whether or not you worked with Donald Trump or never met Donald Trump. [22:17] The fact of the matter is you're a Republican. [22:20] And so in the voters mind, everything that has happened is has been signed off by the party. [22:26] And that that impacts every race up and down the ballot. [22:30] Don't believe me. [22:30] Go back and look at the numbers from 2006. [22:33] It wasn't just those running for federal office who got tanked. [22:36] There were a lot of governors. [22:37] There were a lot of state legislatures, legislators, county executives. [22:42] So that's the reality that the party faces right now. [22:46] And I don't know how you think you fix it by declaring I never met the man. [22:52] We know that doesn't it throughout history. [22:54] That's not necessarily going to be a saving grace. [22:59] To paraphrase Busta Rhymes, there's only 13 days left. [23:03] Now, that's, of course, a reference to apocalyptic talk. [23:05] But Republicans are fearing an electoral apocalypse in 13 days. [23:11] Trump approval crashing in new lows. [23:13] We're tracking these campaigns from the field to the airwaves. [23:16] And tonight we have a new beat reel on this latest flurry of activity. [23:23] This nation belongs to all of us, not just Mr. Musk. [23:27] Mr. Trump and his fellow billionaires. [23:33] Our state, not with anger, not with fear, but with the hope that built this state. [23:40] We're going to demolish the Democrats. [23:43] We will keep Texas red and we will keep Texas, Texas. [23:47] I think David Dolly will be the next governor. [23:50] And Grimm will be the next lieutenant. [23:52] We all know that racism is a distraction. [23:55] We all know what it's about. [23:57] It's about trying to distract people from paying attention to the issues. [24:00] We had one young lady who was following us around. [24:03] We said, great, will you vote for us? [24:05] She said, no, I'm going to do something even better. [24:07] I'm going to tell everyone in my neighborhood you're 100% gangsta. [24:12] I have a legislative record. [24:15] Ken Paxton has a criminal record. [24:18] I looked at his ass and then I looked at his legs and I said, his ass, it's like a pile of muscle. [24:29] The filter starts to slip and Grandpa just says out loud anything that pops into his head. [24:34] Like leaning over at the restaurant going, we have a very busty waitress today. [24:40] I believe that we will win because Darlene Graham is a historically weak, unqualified, [24:46] unserious candidate for the U.S. Senate. [24:49] Who are you voting for in the South Carolina Senate race? [24:51] Darlene. [24:53] You don't seem excited about that. [24:55] She's fine. [24:56] Fine? [24:57] That's what's going down across some of America. [25:01] And when you talk about our country right now, one pollster likened the entire country [25:06] to being now a battleground state because the anti-Trump surge towards Democrats has made really [25:13] most places competitive. [25:15] Doesn't mean Democrats would, of course, win everywhere, but places that were once red [25:19] are no longer purely red. [25:21] Even Texas, now a Senate battleground. [25:23] Trump is campaigning on defense in South Carolina, where Darlene Graham is running to replace [25:28] her late brother, Lindsey. [25:30] A top paper there noting how a year ago, a Republican president campaigning for a Republican [25:34] incumbent in a conservative region was unthinkable. [25:38] To paraphrase another MAGA fan, if somebody would have told me a month ago, frontin' though, [25:44] yo, I wouldn't want to know. [25:46] If somebody would have told me a year ago, it'll go, get this difficult. [25:51] People feeling like Katrina with no FEMA, like a flight with no visa. [25:57] Well, if somebody would have told Republicans a year ago it would get this difficult, maybe [26:01] they wouldn't have given Trump so many blank checks to start this war and ruin the American [26:06] economy. [26:07] Now it may be too late. [26:09] That same Carolina paper reporting how Republicans are alarmed by the turn blue in South Carolina, [26:15] noting it's been about three decades since a state sent a Democrat to the Senate from [26:20] there. [26:21] That goes back all the way to the late Senator Hollings, when conservative Southern Democrats [26:26] could win statewide. [26:28] You know, for context, Hollings first ran for office in 1954. [26:34] So we really are talking about bucking some pretty ancient trends here. [26:39] That is just how much Trump has compromised the Republican standing even in the Deep South. [26:46] Now, those are examples in certain states. [26:49] We can also show you brand new national polling tonight that really shows the breadth of this [26:53] total collapse. [26:54] And I'm about to show it to you, but I'll just tell you anecdotally, you know, we all [26:57] do this for a living in journalism. [26:58] We track this stuff. [27:00] Most of the time, most years, when you look at a poll shifting, you end up saying, oh, [27:04] well, you know, it shifted a few points or a few issues. [27:07] But people still trust one party on this, another party on that. [27:11] If you go back several decades, for example, a lot of times people tend to trust the Democrats [27:16] more on health care, Republicans more on immigration. [27:18] So you see that as a general matter. [27:21] What I'm reporting for you tonight, which doesn't tell us what will happen in 13 days, [27:26] but it does tell you the mood, the energy, the absolute rejection of everything that [27:32] Trump and his party has done this second term. [27:34] What I'm showing you tonight is the kind of collapse you rarely ever see. [27:38] People now prefer the Democrats on every single issue, not just health care and affordability, [27:46] where Trump's party has lagged, not just on gas, which everyone knows is terrible because [27:50] of Trump's war, not just on corruption, where Trump has been caught self-dealing and enriching [27:55] himself more than any president in American history, an obvious failure on the issue of [27:59] corruption, but as mentioned, also in these areas where people used to recently prefer [28:04] Republicans, like immigration or war. [28:09] The Times reporting it's the worst presidential approval rating heading into a midterm since 46, [28:13] when Truman sank to 33 percent, that led to massive losses for his party, that was then [28:19] the Democrats, right, of 55 House seats. [28:22] Another second term president facing this kind of number lost 31 House seats in the 06 midterms, [28:28] all of this stoking the fear of nightmare scenarios for Trump's Republican Party. [28:34] So yes, if somebody would have said a year ago it'll go get this difficult, things might [28:40] have been different. But now it is clearly too late for Republicans to reverse that total [28:45] collapse on every issue that I just showed you, or to pivot from a MAGA mission, which, [28:51] again, if you're watching and you're still making up your mind, it's your mind to make up. [28:55] If you happen to watch this program, we report the evidence and the facts, you decide for yourself. [29:00] But I would be a little cryptic or vague if I didn't note that some of the facts are negative [29:06] for this incumbent administration. And so it is really too late with 13 days for Republicans to [29:11] pivot from the fact that they let this president do just about anything, from starting a Mideast war, [29:19] which grinds on today, to then launching this completely nonsensical trade war with tariffs [29:25] that proved both costly to Americans, but also illegal, ultimately struck down by the high court, [29:31] which made the whole thing really hard to justify. [29:33] They also, the Republicans gave Donald Trump total blank check on attacking free speech and justice [29:41] and democracy with his indicting, power abusing, culture canceling that would make, frankly, [29:47] some autocrats blush. So it's a lot as we bring in our expert panel. I also want to tell you that [29:53] we are a few minutes out from having Chris Hayes join us live, reflecting on this brand new exclusive [29:58] interview with Congresswoman Omar, who is facing the exact revenge cases that I just mentioned, [30:04] that we're going to have that newsworthy interview tonight on MSNOW. So please stay with us to hear [30:10] Chris preview it. We'll probably have a clip from it. And then later you'll see the whole thing [30:13] on what is a busy midterm night on this program. Now we turn to our expert panel, former Democratic [30:19] Congressman Mondaire Jones, who's on the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, and our friend Alex [30:22] Wagner, of course, MSNOW analyst, runaway country host on Crooked Media. Her book made the bestseller list, [30:28] The Steal. You can get it wherever books are sold. Alex, if somebody would have told him a year ago, [30:34] it would get this difficult, it might have been different. And yet here we are, and it is [30:39] this difficult. Some of the worst measurable numbers on issues and overall polling that an [30:45] incumbent party has faced ever. Yeah. And we're not talking about just some random period in the [30:51] Trump presidency. We're talking about the closing hours, closing weeks of this race, when Republicans [30:56] are flooding the zone with money, when the president is on the airwaves multiple hours of every day, [31:02] offering, I guess, what amounts to a closing argument or just really interestingly, [31:07] mail-on-mail assessments of John Husted's physique. And yeah. And the president, he used the word, [31:15] quote, ass. Yeah. Ass talk from the president. And what you're seeing is not only are Republican [31:21] numbers not going up, Trump's floor is lower, lower and lower and lower. He is three points lower in [31:28] that approval rating than he was in September. Democrats numbers in the gubernatorial and Senate [31:33] races are basically unchanged. And this is like with a ton of resources, a ton of messaging. And [31:38] you see in the numbers that you pointed out, Ari, Democrats are ahead on issues that are both the [31:44] past, the present and the future, whether it's the shepherding of the economy, immigration, where [31:50] Republicans are traditionally strong, but even things like AI data centers, issues that are very much [31:54] determinative for not just the midterms, but I think are going to be determinative for the 2028 [31:59] presidential. So like whatever the Republicans are doing is decidedly not working. And not only [32:05] they're not changing course, they're doubling down on it. Yeah. And so, I mean, that's, that's the [32:08] question. Is this Republican party facing a Katrina, a Katrina with no FEMA, as it were? Listen, [32:14] you got to finish the lyrics. Republicans are out here looking like Martin with no Gina. Okay. So they [32:19] are completely. Now he did get, he had like two minutes. I know he was marinating. I thought of [32:25] it instantly in the moment. Okay. In the moment, man, I'm a, I'm a creature of breath. We could do, [32:29] you know, fly with no visa. Yeah. Seat back, my eyes closed. I still see that. I just wrapped [32:35] through the entire A block. Let's go. Let's go. Well, we don't wrap. We quote. It's different. [32:39] Yeah, go ahead. Only on this show. I love this. Look, my favorite thing to do these days is to wake up [32:44] and scroll through, unfortunately, Elon Musk's Twitter, which I still refer to as Twitter, to see [32:49] which house Republican incumbent or challenger is getting triaged. And for those viewers who don't [32:56] know, that's when money gets pulled out of your race. Yeah. It's in support of you, typically in the [33:00] form of super PAC cash and sent somewhere else where there is viewed to be a better use of dollars. [33:06] And you're talking about how, how many states Republicans view as a lost cause house districts [33:10] in the, in the, in the case that I'm referring to, I think people are still spending in, in different [33:14] Senate races. In fact, Republicans are finding themselves having to play statewide in what [33:20] ought to be safe red, uh, uh, states for, uh, to protect Republican candidates. I mean, that's, [33:29] that's something that they shouldn't be doing in places like Missouri and, and, and Mississippi, [33:33] for example. Yeah. And I want to show you Mondaire. I mean, most people, you know, we follow these [33:36] races. You've been in them. You've looked at the polls. You look at who you want to come in [33:40] out of your district, right? Uh, this is overall Trump's slide among these groups, among white [33:47] voters down 12. Um, and that's his core. I think everybody knows that among seniors down 12 overall [33:55] down 26 among minority voters, right? And you say, well, look around at what's happening down 51 points. [34:04] And finally, uh, voters under 30 down 57 points. I saw a poll today that had white voters with no [34:14] college degree split basically evenly in support of the president. I mean, there's no way that they [34:21] can keep their majorities, their majority in the house with the, with numbers looking like. [34:26] You're looking at the dissolution of the Trump base. I mean, white working class voters with no [34:29] college degree, believe by 40% the Democrats of the party of the working class is we are 12 days [34:36] out from the midterms. There has been flashing red warning signals for Republicans under this [34:42] unpopular president. We've got reports of some Republican aides saying the wall has broken the [34:47] red wall, that Mississippi's in play, all kinds of things, uh, coming up. Al Sharpton and Molly [34:52] John fast are my midterm super panel. And we are watching the campaign brawl out there. [34:58] We've got a Senate race to win here. This Democrat party, ladies and gentlemen, [35:07] it needs an asking. She blamed the healthcare costs on Barack Obama. I don't know what will [35:14] be next. Maybe Thomas Jefferson. We are going to shock the nation, shock the world when we beat [35:19] the billionaires and take back Texas. You're going to hear a form of nagabinga. That is the Democrat [35:26] socialists of America coming for your business. They're going to use buzzwords. And I'm hoping that [35:31] y'all can play at home. Every time you hear one of those buzzwords, just remember when they're [35:35] distracting you, they're also trying to pick your pocket. We'll elect Keisha Lance Bottoms, [35:40] the next. There's a clear contrast on the ballot this year, Georgia, a man who looks out for himself [35:47] or a woman who works for you. You have Darlene and her very handsome husband. He's a good looking [35:53] husband. Honestly, it's nice to see that Trump can make men just as uncomfortable as women. [35:58] Isn't it nice? My wife is always right. And President Trump is not always right. [36:05] Politicians want to spend billions for ballrooms and tax breaks for CEOs, [36:09] while upstate families just want groceries that won't break the bank. [36:13] I voted for Trump. I have every time he's run. I can go questioning it now. [36:19] You get to decide. That's your right. That's your superpower. But there's a catch. [36:25] There are some powerful people who want to take away that power. This is Robert De Niro, [36:31] and I've got a message for them. No way. There you have it. That's just some of what's going on [36:38] out there. Meanwhile, critics say the Trump DOJ continues to blatantly interfere with these [36:43] midterms. Whether it will work, given how unpopular Trump is and how much corruption has dragged down [36:48] his credibility, is an open question. But you have the DOJ right in the middle of the election [36:53] homestretch, unveiling charges against a Democrat here, indicting a Virginia state senator, [36:58] Louise Lucas, who's considered very powerful, on charges that she set up a business to sell [37:03] marijuana before the substance was legalized for recreational sales in the state. In other words, [37:09] this is, at best, a reach of a marijuana case, something that is legal in many states now, of course, [37:16] and that the feds are never usually involved with like this, and certainly not 12 days out from [37:20] the midterms. If it was not election meddling, presumably this kind of business-related case [37:25] could have been brought in 12 days. Federal agents continue to target Democratic Congressman Omar. [37:31] She spoke out last night on MS Now about this. She argues that the rate on her home for electronic [37:36] devices itself was blatantly pretextual and suspicious. She's, of course, running as well. [37:43] We are going into the midterms, which is a period where the DOJ is under its own rules and not supposed [37:47] to bring new cases. Attorney General Todd Blanche taking questions. [37:54] My understanding of typical practice, DOJ doesn't usually release charges like this this close to [37:58] an election. Can you speak to the reason for the timing of these charges so close to an upcoming [38:04] election? Well, so, I mean, I think you're referring to the 60-day or 90-day practice, which is not in [38:12] writing. Why did you guys decide that this could not wait until after November? [38:15] I can't elaborate on it. Is there any scenario in which DOJ would weigh in on that certification [38:20] process or try to block states from certifying? I mean, is there any scenario? Yes. Of course, [38:25] there's scenarios that we could all come up with hypothetically, you know, to say that there's no [38:29] circumstances that we would ever do that. Of course, I'm not going to say that. [38:32] So there was this misperception that there's this separation and independence between the Department [38:39] of Justice and the White House. And everybody likes to champion that. And they accuse me of [38:43] not suffering from independence. I don't. I work for President Trump. [38:48] Yes, that's the sound of the sitting attorney general basically admitting to part of the problem. [38:54] He has the lowest credibility among legal experts and lawyers of any modern attorney general, including [38:59] the past Donald Trump attorney general, some of whom had their own issues. But there's nothing like [39:04] the lows that Blanche has sunk to. Of course, the problem is we don't want to live in a country where [39:10] the Justice Department and its massive powers are being wielded against candidates in whatever [39:15] party they may be. In this case, it's obviously against Democrats. But the same would be true, [39:19] on the other hand, days out from an election. Indeed, we're all old enough to remember when Donald [39:25] Trump criticized and then ultimately claimed he was firing James Comey for, among other things, [39:32] that kind of interference close to an election day didn't seem like a real reason then. And now they're [39:38] violating what would be their own standards, as well as, as mentioned, the internal practice. [39:42] This is wider, though, and longer running than just this midterm season. The DOJ has these revenge [39:49] probes. Very few have gotten far, but they are clearly designed to target, intimidate and chill [39:55] the speech of critics, of opponents, of Democrats, and in some cases, Republicans who dare do something [40:00] different than what Trump wanted. We've been tracking them, as you see here. Trump's net approval on the [40:04] economy, meanwhile, dropping to an all-time low, negative 31 percent. By definition, that means a [40:11] heck of a lot of people in this country who voted for him at least once previously do not trust him [40:16] on this economy. NPR reporting the stores that have been selling Trump merchandise, some of them [40:20] closing down. One MAGA supporter saying he's no longer a viable business model for entrepreneurs [40:25] because he has peaked. That's the culture and the merch. We want to bring in our experts, [40:33] as promised. Al Sharpton, host of Politics Nation, founder of the National Action Network. [40:36] And Molly Jong-Fast from the New York Times, also an MSNOW analyst here. Al, you take that all [40:41] together and you have what look like kind of slapdash desperate attempts by the DOJ. I mean, [40:47] it's not to minimize it, as I mentioned, but you got a thing in Virginia. You got Omar over here. [40:52] But it doesn't look like they have it together to swing a whole election with these tactics. And you [40:57] have an economic revolt against that. You have an economic revolt against it, but you also have [41:03] the they have run the risk now of creating martyrs that will hurt them even more to indict someone [41:12] or marijuana when it is now legal. And you go back. You first said it was going to be election [41:20] fraud and other allegations. Now you come back with this kind of makes people in Virginia and around [41:27] the country saying, wait a minute, this does not make sense. And then the Omar situation doesn't [41:35] make sense. I mean, I'm seeing throughout my whole life as a civil rights activist and leader of an [41:42] organization, people set up, people had to go and defend themselves, including me. I've never seen such [41:49] flimsy stuff. I mean, I've seen guys that have been very much trying to get you, but they get [41:56] something to get you. These things are so transparent that even people that are opposed to the Congress, [42:03] both Congresswomen are saying this just doesn't make sense. What are you saying here? You're saying [42:10] that a woman was supposed to be involved in some marijuana trade two or three years before it became [42:15] legal in the state. And, and, and you want a federal case on this or Omar, did her parents do [42:22] something when she was a little girl? So therefore now she ought to be what deported. Uh, and you were [42:28] raiding a house looking for what her parents' diaries. I mean, it just does not make sense. [42:35] Make it make sense is their problem. Yeah. I hear you on that. Uh, Kevin McCarthy lived through all this [42:40] as a top Republican speaker. Uh, he sees a loss coming, at least on the house side. Take a look. [42:44] In the last hundred years, all off your elections, whoever is the party in power has the white house [42:53] has lost seats. And it's a very, it's only a few seats for the majority. It's not that the Democrats [42:57] are going to win this election. Republicans are going to lose it. They'll get a majority. [43:01] I'm not quite sure how big it is, but they will probably win the majority. The real battle is for [43:06] the Senate. That's still fundamentally in play. The midterms, 11 days out, Republicans on defense. [43:13] And in a sign that Trump, his administration and the Republican party are worried about losing in [43:19] deep red states, the DOJ is not only getting involved in a long shot bid to kind of get people [43:26] confused or scared or do an election, election interference, but doing it in a place that [43:31] actually tells you where they're worried about losing. Because even if you put aside democracy, [43:36] the rule of law, and what we hold dear in this country, even if you put all that aside and say, [43:41] well, if you are a Trump Republican that needs to overturn Republican losses, well, [43:47] you wouldn't do that in places you've won. That's kind of obvious, right? [43:51] We had a Jan 6 after Trump lost. We didn't have a Jan 6 style set of events and protests [43:56] after Trump won in 24. So that's the context for what I'm going to show you tonight to end [44:01] a bruising week for Republicans. Trump's DOJ is trying to set the groundwork [44:07] to subvert or steal if they lose Alaska, which is not a place Republicans usually lose. That would [44:14] be a kind of a Trump thing if they did. So the lawsuit says if and only if a Republican incumbent [44:20] there loses, they want to be able to try to go in and have extra review and try to change [44:24] the outcome. So that doesn't sound very legitimate. And I can tell you that kind of case isn't likely [44:30] to be viewed very favorably in the courts, let alone by the Supreme Court, which I already [44:34] actually looked at some of the underlying details in this matter. As for how this is landing today, [44:40] it's the kind of messaging that could actually further hurt the Republican Party and make them [44:44] look weak. It's not popular to tell voters right before they vote that, hey, we don't care what [44:50] you say or do. We might just try to cancel out the vote and steal the election. That's not a popular [44:56] message. It's certainly not a strong closing message. As for the legal arguments themselves, [45:01] the New York Times dubs this a highly unusual case. The Post says election experts described [45:06] the legal argument as absurdly thin. One said it was designed to win the press release rather [45:11] than the litigation. I'm sharing that quote with you because this is sort of the thing [45:17] that happens when we discuss Trump's legal issues that are so illegal, so unconstitutional [45:22] that it seems almost rude to say the facts. But before I show you what we're seeing out in [45:30] the midterms tonight, I will just tell you the legal facts. This case is a loser. It's [45:35] a stinker. It's a Hail Mary. It is very unlikely to win ultimately in the Supreme Court. And while [45:42] some folks see this as a press release or just giving Trump what he wants, I actually don't [45:47] think, based on what we can tell, that it's a good headline press release or top story for [45:51] them going into this final home stretch. Because again, it smacks of desperation and awareness [45:58] that the voters, even in Red Alaska, are against them, against Trump and the Republicans. [46:04] And that brings us to the kind of special beat reports we've been showing you, [46:08] some of the latest brawling out there as candidates fight for every vote. [46:13] Money out of? Money in your? Medicare for? That's right. [46:21] We are going to tell the Democrats one more time that they will not have power in Florida. [46:27] Daddy's back. [46:29] Since then, gas, groceries, and home insurance have all gone up. [46:34] What do you think about the state of the economy? [46:36] That's, like, really bad. [46:38] It's the powers that be versus the powers that ought to be. And it's time for us to start [46:43] flipping over some tables. [46:45] I've seen everything go up for my paycheck. [46:48] A specific example of what your family is seeing at the grocery store. [46:52] My wife does a lot of the shopping for us, so I don't get to go. [46:54] There's basically one plot, one script, and one issue that voters want to talk about, [47:00] and that is affordability. [47:01] These three guys are so handsome. I hate handsome men. I've always had. [47:05] No, they're like Central Cassidy, four-star guys. [47:08] It's just weird. Come on. The President of the United States is like, [47:12] God, he's got a great ass. I mean, please. [47:14] Everybody in my block is Republican. [47:16] They have told me for the first time they're voting blue, straight down. [47:20] Mississippi is close. Mississippi, where the state bird is a rifle. [47:32] Republicans obviously see the problem. [47:35] The DOJ, as mentioned, making this unbelievably thin or totally baseless Hail Mary, [47:42] and not just in a random state, but in a state that wasn't even really competitive [47:45] or on this map a year ago. [47:47] Then there is the late money. [47:49] Elon Musk is the world's richest person, and he has been close to Trump, [47:53] serving in this White House, briefly. [47:55] He's just ponied up another $76 million, [47:58] which brings his total spend to almost half a billion in this midterm cycle alone. [48:04] A reminder that this is not politics as usual. [48:06] We are in a billionaire oligarch era, [48:09] where many are spending more than the entire budgets of multiple house races combined. [48:15] And yet those spend, that kind of spending, may not make a big difference when you look at this level of revolt. [48:24] When Alaska and Mississippi are suddenly competitive, [48:26] when oil is at a five-month high, nearing its war peak, [48:30] when corruption is on the minds of voters because they can see what's happening. [48:35] Voters, even those who might have previously given Donald Trump a chance, [48:40] have found out that there is a con going on, [48:43] that he is self-enriching while they pay the price, a higher price quite literally. [48:48] Another nonpartisan outlet, the Cook Political Report, [48:50] has shifted 19 more house races towards Democrats. [48:54] Now, some of those places could be very tight, [48:57] and there could be shifts that relate to small things like weather or the final day's turnout messaging. [49:02] But you are looking at least at the makings of a potential wave. [49:07] Democrats bringing out the big voices, including Barack Obama, hitting the trail this weekend. [49:12] Not only in Michigan, where Democrats feel they have a good shot, [49:15] but in places that traditionally have not even, again, been competitive, like Ohio. [49:20] I want to bring in our midterm panel tonight, [49:22] Che Koman-Duri, a veteran of several presidential campaigns, including Obama's, [49:26] and Juanita Tolliver, host of the Archival Podcast and MSNOW analyst. [49:29] Welcome to you both. [49:30] Che, the Alaska lawsuit is notable more for where it is than what it is. [49:37] As I've told viewers, I'll call it straight. [49:40] There are closer cases out there. [49:43] There was a case, for example, on delisting Trump off the ballots. [49:47] And I told folks that was a kind of a liberal dream that was not going to happen legally, right, in the past cycle. [49:54] This is a right-wing legal fever dream that's going nowhere based on all precedent we have. [49:59] And yet, where they're filing it seems to be the biggest headline, Che. [50:04] They're worried about losing Alaska. [50:08] Yeah, I mean, I think it speaks of the desperation that they are experiencing, [50:12] because it's not just Alaska. [50:14] It's Texas, which Democrats have dreamed of turning blue for generations. [50:20] It's Kansas, where a Democrat has not won in almost a century. [50:26] We're talking about Mississippi now. [50:27] We're talking about South Carolina. [50:29] I mean, if you are one of these tech bros who went all in on Trump about two or three years ago, [50:35] based on the fact that Elon Musk was there, you're looking at your investment right now and looking at it aghast. [50:42] I mean, going all in on Trump has resulted in Democrats gaining power in Texas, in Alaska, in Mississippi, in Kansas, in Iowa. [50:51] So it's all shaping up to be a tremendous disaster, I think, for Republicans. [50:56] And I think for Democrats who are worried about whether the polls are accurate, [50:59] it's very clear the Republicans believe the polls are accurate. [51:03] Otherwise, they wouldn't be doing this stuff. [51:05] Yeah, Juanita, I mean, there are times where polls can go astray, and we've lived through all that. [51:10] The battery of polls of indications of Democrats now being favored by American voters on every issue that's asked, which is kind of absurd. [51:21] I mean, there's usually some daylight between the parties on some issue. [51:25] For example, if you said lower taxes, people tend to prefer Republicans on that because they often are for lower taxes. [51:31] Right now, as Chey mentions, you have the red state polling, you have the polling across the country of the generic ballot, [51:36] and then you have voters preferring, I should say, Dems on every issue. [51:42] I think it just is a trademark response from voters about how pissed off they are. [51:47] Ari, you can't treat voters this poorly and then say, hey, still show up for us. [51:53] You can't do it and launch harmful policies that see communities upended before their neighbor's eyes [52:00] and voters watching people handled horribly all under federal government initiatives [52:05] and expect them to still support you. [52:07] When I saw that, Republicans have lost ground even on immigration, Ari, to Democrats. [52:13] So add that to the economy and handling the economy and handling affordability, [52:17] also handling immigration. [52:19] That's somewhere where Democrats have gained ground due to the sheer harm and incompetence of Republicans [52:25] in this Trump administration. [52:27] People have expressed that they've reached a limit. [52:30] I think, Ari, last year when Trump started his second term, I told you, [52:34] his entire administration feels like a reconnaissance mission, checking for weak points, [52:39] checking for what they can get away with, checking for what voters will tolerate. [52:43] Voters are sending an explicitly clear message that, hey, we've reached our limit, [52:48] and I think that's going to be something that we see in the election outcomes. [52:51] And even if Democrats aren't victorious in states they haven't won in 40 to 94 years, [52:56] the reality is those margins are going to be tight. [52:59] And that also sets up a long on-ramp for 2028 investments, [53:04] because what we are seeing is Democrats now going into southern states like Mississippi [53:09] or really putting energy into Iowa in a way they hadn't in the past. [53:13] But imagine what two years of consistent investment in building infrastructure [53:17] and engagement with voters could pay off in 28. [53:20] Hmm. [53:22] Che, they asked Trump about the Alaska stuff today, and he admits this comes from the top. [53:32] Just get out and vote. [53:33] If they vote, we're going to win big. [53:35] And he saw some of the Alaska lawsuits with the ballot. [53:38] Well, I'm the one that said do it. [53:43] Che, that is just right out in the open. [53:47] I mean, you know, there's no hiding the ball with that. [53:50] But, you know, that's been the case with Trump the whole way through. [53:52] You know, I think one of the things that he has learned in politics is if you basically do it out in the open, [53:59] in some ways it kind of becomes less of a crime in the minds of a lot of voters, [54:05] in the minds of a lot of Republican elected officials, you know, going all the way back to 2016. [54:09] Remember when he said, Russia, if you're listening, please release Hillary's emails. [54:15] I mean, basically just openly putting it out there, what he's doing, why he's doing it. [54:19] You know, and I think he feels that that is a strength and it has worked for him, [54:23] that clear telegraphing, because then you kind of can say, well, it's just political rhetoric. [54:28] It's a joke, et cetera. [54:31] You can kind of have it both ways if you do it the way he does it. [54:35] But, Che, I want to push back just on one thing, [54:36] thinking about all the lawsuits that Donald Trump filed after the 2020 election was called for Biden. [54:41] And he lost all of those lawsuits across the country. [54:44] I feel like now this Alaska lawsuit being preemptive before voting ends, before Election Day, [54:52] highlights this attempt to, again, to conduct a recon on what a judge might allow them to get away with, [54:59] what arguments might work out. [55:01] Ari, I know you said this is a failure already on delivery, [55:05] but I fully expect this to telegraph what could come next in terms of fighting election outcomes. [55:10] Hey, it's Rachel. [55:11] I am so glad to see you at the end of that clip, [55:13] because this is where I get to tell you about a new way to watch all our clips [55:17] and all of our shows and everything on MSNOW on your phone or your tablet or your laptop. [55:23] You can watch things live or recorded. [55:25] Plus, you can ask me and all the other hosts and reporters questions in our weekly live chats. [55:31] You can go to ms.now slash membership or just click below. [55:37] Thanks.