'If Trump ends the war now, it will be a clear victory for Iran': Foreign policy analyst

[0:00] Joining us, former Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs and MSNOW [0:04] political analyst Rick Stengel, staff writer for The Atlantic and MSNOW political analyst Ashley [0:09] Parker, and Washington Post columnist and senior fellow for National Security Studies at the [0:14] Council on Foreign Relations, Max Boot. So, Ashley, do you have a better sense from the White House [0:20] about what this address is about? So the president did say in a brief interview today, part of it is [0:29] he at least said that he plans to express his disproval and displeasure with NATO, threaten to [0:37] withdraw from it. But I will say I am a little bit out of the prediction game when it comes to [0:42] President Trump, because especially on Iran, we have literally heard him say everything. At one [0:49] news conference, he said it's true that the war is just beginning and also it is ending. He has [0:54] talked privately about ground troops and about not wanting to send in ground troops. [0:59] He has said that he was not looking for regime change, that there has been regime change, even though [1:03] when most people would agree what we have seen is not regime change. He has expressed a ton of interest [1:09] and concern about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. And he has also said that's the problem of our European [1:16] allies. So his team has tried to spin this as 12-dimensional chess. I will say the end result is that he is [1:25] quite unpredictable, even to allies and adversaries. [1:29] And that can be inadvertently strategic. But it is not part of a well-laid strategy. [1:37] It's not a bad idea to respond to public sentiment. If the public doesn't want you there, it's not a bad thing to say, [1:45] okay, I'm going to leave. But he did start something. It is a mess right now. So if he were to leave today or [1:53] tomorrow, or in a week without the Strait being open, with the regime still having the number of missiles, [1:59] THAT IT HAS, ETC., IS IT BETTER [2:02] TO JUST LEAVE AND LEAVE IT LIKE [2:04] THAT, OR IS IT BETTER TO STAY IN [2:05] AND KEEP PUSHING? [2:07] WELL, LET'S START WHERE YOU [2:08] BEGAN. [2:09] IS IT A GOOD THING TO ADDRESS [2:10] THE NATION? [2:11] YES, IT IS A GOOD THING TO [2:12] ADDRESS THE NATION. [2:14] HE SHOULD HAVE DONE IT, AS YOU [2:15] SAID IN YOUR PREAMBLE BEFORE, [2:17] BUT IT'S STILL BETTER NOW. [2:19] THE PROBLEM IS, IS THAT UNLIKE [2:21] ANY OTHER PRESIDENT, WHEN THEY [2:22] ADDRESS THE NATION FROM THE OVAL [2:23] OFFICE, YOU THINK, THESE WORDS [2:25] ARE WRITTEN IN GOLD. [2:26] EVERYBODY HAS AGREED ABOUT THIS. [2:27] THE PRESIDENT HAS AGREED ABOUT [2:29] IT. [2:29] THE PRESIDENT HAS AGREED ABOUT [2:31] IT. [2:31] THE PRESIDENT HAS AGREED ABOUT [2:32] IT. [2:33] THAT'S NOT TRUE OF DONALD TRUMP. [2:34] HE CAN GIVE A SPEECH FROM THE [2:36] OVAL OFFICE AND THEN 30 MINUTES [2:37] LATER SAY SOMETHING COMPLETELY [2:39] DIFFERENT. [2:39] SO IT'S VERY HARD TO KNOW WHAT [2:41] HE'S SAYING, WHETHER IT'S [2:43] ACCURATE AND WHETHER IT REFLECTS [2:45] A TRUE REGER OF EVENTS. [2:47] THE OTHER ISSUE WITH TRUMP [2:48] THAT'S DIFFERENT FROM EVERY [2:49] OTHER PRESIDENT IS, IN EVERY [2:51] OTHER ADMINISTRATION, REPUBLICAN [2:52] AND DEMOCRATIC, THE PRESIDENT [2:53] DID NOT DO THE NEGOTIATING. [2:55] HE DIDN'T DO THE NEGOTIATING. [2:57] HE DIDN'T DO THE NEGOTIATING. [2:58] HE DID IT ALL DAY LONG. [3:00] HE DID IT ALL DAY LONG DOING THE [3:01] NEGOTIATING. [3:01] EVERYBODY DID THE NEGOTIATING [3:02] AND THE PRESIDENT CAME IN AND [3:04] KIND OF RATIFIED IT. [3:05] SO YOU NEVER KNOW WHEN HE'S [3:06] SAYING SOMETHING, IS IT [3:07] NEGOTIATING OR IS HE TALKING [3:09] ABOUT HIS PERCEPTION OF REALITY? [3:10] HARD TO KNOW. [3:15] SO MAX, SAME ESSENTIAL [3:16] QUESTION TO YOU. [3:17] WELL, I MEAN, I THINK IT'S, [3:20] YOU KNOW, VERY, YOU KNOW, [3:22] UNPREDICTABLE WHAT TRUMP IS [3:23] GOING TO SAY OR DO. [3:25] HE'S GOING TO SAY, YOU KNOW, [3:28] WE'RE GOING TO SELL THE MAP AND [3:30] ONE DAY WE'RE FINE WITH LEAVING [3:32] THE STRAIT OF HORMOOSE CLOSED. [3:33] THE NEXT DAY WE NEED TO DO [3:35] SOMETHING ABOUT IT. [3:36] I THINK THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT [3:38] IF HE ENDS THIS WAR WITH THE [3:40] STRAIT OF HORMOOSE CLOSED AND [3:42] THE IRANIANS IN CONTROL, THAT IS [3:44] GOING TO BE A MASSIVE U.S. [3:45] DEFEAT. [3:45] IT'S GOING TO BE A MASSIVE BLOW [3:48] TO THE PRINCIPLE OF FREEDOM OF [3:49] NAVIGATION AND THE INTERNATIONAL [3:51] ORDER THAT THE U.S. HAS UNDERPIN [3:53] SINCE 1945. [3:53] HE'S GOING TO TRY TO SELL IT AS [3:55] MUCH AS HE CAN, WHICH IS WHY [3:57] HE'S ALSO THREATENING THE [3:58] EUROPEANS AND TRYING TO GET [4:00] OTHERS TO COME IN AND CLEAN UP [4:01] HIS MESS. [4:02] BUT I THINK ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, [4:04] HE HAS TO GET THE STRAIT OF [4:06] HORMOOSE OPEN. [4:07] HE CANNOT END THIS WAR WITH IRAN [4:09] IN CHARGE OF A WATERWAY WHICH [4:11] CARRIES 20% OF THE WORLD'S OIL. [4:13] LET'S SAY HE DOES, [4:14] THOUGH. [4:15] LET'S SAY HE DOES JUST TRY TO [4:17] PULL OUT TONIGHT. [4:18] WHAT HAPPENS THEN, MAX? [4:19] I MEAN, IF HE ENDS THE WAR [4:24] RIGHT NOW, IT WILL BE A CLEAR [4:26] VICTORY FOR IRAN DESPITE ALL THE [4:27] DAMAGE THAT THEY HAVE SUFFERED. [4:29] AND THERE'S NO QUESTION THEY'VE [4:31] LOST A LOT OF LEADERS. [4:31] THEY'VE LOST A LOT OF MILITARY [4:34] MATERIAL. [4:35] BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, [4:37] THEY'RE STILL STANDING. [4:38] THEY'RE STILL FIRING THEIR [4:39] WEAPONS. [4:40] IN FACT, THEY JUST HAD A STRIKE [4:42] AT ISRAEL THIS MORNING. [4:44] THEY'RE STILL ATTACKING THEIR [4:45] NEIGHBORS ON THE PERSIAN GULF, [4:46] AND THEY'RE STILL DOMINATING THE [4:49] STRAIT OF HORMOOSE. [4:50] AND THE U.S. HAS BEEN SHOWING [4:51] ITSELF INCAPABLE OF OPENING THAT [4:54] UP. [4:54] I WOULD ADD, THE U.S. HAS ALSO [4:56] NOT RECOVERED THE NEARLY 1,000 [4:58] POUNDS OF HIGHLY ENRICHED [4:59] URANIUM THAT IRAN HAS. [5:00] AND OF COURSE, THE U.S. HAS NOT [5:02] CARRIED OUT REGIME CHANGE, EVEN [5:04] THOUGH TRUMP IS NOW TRYING TO [5:05] SPIN THE LEADERSHIP TRANSITION [5:07] IN IRAN AS REGIME CHANGE. [5:08] THAT'S A LEADERSHIP CHANGE. [5:09] THE REGIME, THE ISLAMIC [5:11] REPUBLIC OF IRAN, REMAINS [5:13] UNCHANGED, AND IT'S LED BY THE [5:14] HARDEST OF HARDLINERS IN THE [5:16] ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD [5:18] CORPS. [5:18] SO I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANY WAY [5:20] HE CAN END THE WAR RIGHT NOW AND [5:22] DECLARE IT A VICTORY UNLESS [5:24] THERE'S SOME KIND OF DEAL WITH [5:25] IRAN TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF [5:27] FORMOOSE AT A MINIMUM. [5:29] WHAT WOULD IT DO TO OUR [5:31] RELATIONSHIPS BOTH IN THE REGION [5:34] WITH UAE, QATAR, ISRAEL EVEN, [5:36] AND WHAT WOULD IT ALSO DO TO OUR [5:39] RELATIONSHIP WITH OUR OTHER [5:41] ALLIES WHO RELY ON THE OIL THAT [5:42] COMES OUT OF THAT STRAIT? [5:44] YES. [5:45] BY THE WAY, THE EUROPEANS USED [5:47] TO BUY MOST OF THEIR OIL FROM [5:49] RUSSIA, BUT AT OUR BEHEST, WE [5:51] ASKED THEM TO START BOYCOTTING [5:52] RUSSIA. [5:53] THEY BUYED MOST OF THEIR OIL [5:55] FROM RUSSIA, THEY BUYED MOST OF [5:57] THEIR OIL FROM RUSSIA, THEY NOW [5:59] BUY MOST OF THEIR OIL FROM US. [6:01] WE'RE THE LARGEST OIL PRODUCER [6:03] THAT GOES TO EUROPE. [6:04] WHAT'S INTERESTING AND [6:05] FRUSTRATING ABOUT TRUMP [6:07] ATTACKING OUR ALLIES FOR NOT [6:09] BEING COURAGEOUS ENOUGH TO HELP [6:11] OPEN THE STRAIT IS WHAT ABOUT [6:13] OUR GULF ALLIES WHO STAND TO [6:15] ACTUALLY BE BENEFIT OR BE HURT [6:16] FROM THIS? [6:17] THEY'RE THE TRUE FREE RIDERS IN [6:19] THE SENSE THAT THEY'RE NOT [6:21] INVOLVED IN HELPING KEEP THE [6:22] STRAIT OPEN. [6:23] THEY'RE INVOLVED IN HELPING [6:24] KEEP THE STRAIT OPEN. [6:25] SO YOU'RE SAYING HE [6:27] SHOULD BE LEANING ON THEM MORE [6:30] TO PARTICIPATE. [6:31] 100%. [6:32] WHY DO YOU THINK HE'S [6:33] NOT? [6:34] BECAUSE CUTTER GAVE HIM AN [6:35] AIRPLANE? [6:36] I DON'T REALLY KNOW WHY. [6:38] I MEAN, I DON'T KNOW WHY HE'S [6:40] SO RESOLUTE ABOUT ATTACKING OUR [6:42] ALLIES WHERE WE HAVE SO MUCH IN [6:44] COMMON AND NOT ASKING PEOPLE WHO [6:46] DEPEND ON US IN THE MIDDLE EAST [6:48] WHO WE GIVE MONEY TO, WHO WE DO [6:50] BUSINESS WITH TO HELP KEEP THE [6:51] STRAIT OPEN. [6:52] I THINK THIS IS A GOOD [6:54] QUESTION. [6:55] I MEAN, HE'S BEING HARSH ON [6:57] SAUDI ARABIA, ON QATAR, ON THE [6:59] UAE, IN THE SAME WAY THAT HE'S [7:01] SO HARD ON FRANCE AND THE U.K. [7:04] AND ALL OF OUR NATO ALLIES. [7:05] IT'S A GOOD QUESTION. [7:07] I MEAN, I WILL SAY BEING HARSH [7:09] ON NATO ALLIES FOR PRESIDENT [7:11] TRUMP IN MANY WAYS IS MUSCLE [7:13] MEMORY. [7:14] I CAN RECALL BEING ON FOREIGN [7:16] TRIPS WITH HIM, SHOWING UP AT [7:18] NATO HEADQUARTERS WITH TRUE [7:20] SUSPENSE OF WHETHER OR NOT HE [7:22] WAS GOING TO REAFFIRM ARTICLE [7:24] 5 OR DECLARE THAT HE'S [7:25] TRUMPING A TREATY. [7:26] HE HAS LONG BELIEVED EVEN [7:28] BEFORE HE BECAME PRESIDENT THAT [7:30] AS HE WOULD PUT IT, AMERICA IS [7:32] GETTING RIPPED OFF, AMERICA IS [7:34] GETTING A BAD DEAL. [7:35] HE VIEWS EVERYTHING IN [7:36] TRANSACTIONAL TERMS. [7:37] I WILL SAY SOME OF THESE [7:39] COUNTRIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST [7:41] HAVE PROVEN THEMSELVES FAR MORE [7:43] WILLING TO TRANSACT WITH HIM IN [7:46] SORT OF MORE CRUDE BRASS TAX [7:48] WAYS, LIKE AS RICK MENTIONED, [7:51] THE AIRPLANE FROM QATAR. [7:54] YEAH. [7:56] MAX, YOU TOO ON THAT? [7:57] I THINK IT'S [7:58] BAD. [7:59] IT'S NOT JUST THE FACT THAT [8:00] HE'S NOT CALLING ON THE GULF [8:01] ALLIES TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF [8:02] HARMOUS. [8:03] HE'S ALSO NOT CALLING ON OUR [8:04] ASIAN ALLIES, JAPAN AND SOUTH [8:05] KOREA AND OTHERS, WHICH ALSO RELY [8:07] ON PERSIAN GULF OIL. [8:08] AND AT THE SAME TIME, HE IS [8:10] GIVING VLADIMIR PUTIN A COMPLETE [8:12] PASS ON THE FACT THAT RUSSIA IS [8:14] REPORTEDLY PROVIDING DRONES AND [8:16] INTELLIGENCE TO IRAN TO HELP [8:17] KILL AMERICANS. [8:18] TRUMP HAS NOT HAD ONE WORD TO [8:21] SAY ABOUT WHAT PUTIN IS DOING [8:23] AT THE SAME TIME THAT HE'S [8:24] EXCORIATING OUR ALLIES FOR NOT [8:26] BEING HELPFUL ENOUGH. [8:27] PUTIN IS GOING BEYOND BEING [8:29] UNHELPFUL. [8:30] HE'S ACTIVELY HELPING THE OTHER [8:32] SIDE, AND TRUMP WILL NOT CALL [8:33] HIM OUT. [8:34] SO IT'S ALL BAFFLING, AND IT [8:36] REALLY COMES DOWN TO, YOU KNOW, [8:39] TRUMP'S BIZARRE AFFECTION FOR [8:42] PUTIN, WHICH IS ONE OF THE [8:45] LONG-STANDING. [8:46] THE ENDURING QUESTIONS. [8:49] BUT I WONDER IF IT IS JUST AS [8:51] SIMPLE AS WHAT ASHLEY AND [8:52] EVERYBODY HAS BEEN LAYING OUT [8:53] HERE. [8:54] I THINK IT'S JUST AS SIMPLE [8:55] AS WHAT ASHLEY HAS BEEN LAYING [8:56] OUT. [8:57] I THINK IT'S JUST AS SIMPLE AS [8:58] WHAT ASHLEY HAS BEEN LAYING OUT, [8:59] YOU INCLUDED. [9:00] HE THINKS HE CAN GET MONEY FROM [9:01] RUSSIA. [9:02] HE CAN GET MONEY FROM SAUDI [9:03] ARABIA. [9:04] HE CAN GET MONEY FROM KATAR. [9:05] HE CAN GET MONEY FROM THE U.A.E. [9:06] HE CAN DO BUSINESS DEALS WITH [9:07] THEM THAT WILL MAKE HIM RICHER [9:09] THAT HE CAN'T DO TO THE SAME [9:11] DEGREE FROM OTHER WESTERN [9:12] DEMOCRACIES. [9:13] IS THAT IT? [9:14] THAT HE JUST BELIEVES THAT HE'S [9:15] GOING TO MAKE MONEY OFF OF THEM [9:16] AND THAT'S WHY HE'S SO NICE TO [9:18] ME. [9:19] I THINK IT'S JUST [9:20] SO STRANGE. [9:21] IS HE A MAN CRUSH? [9:23] WHAT IS IT? [9:24] I HOPE THAT'S NOT TRUE, KATIE, [9:26] THAT IT'S COMPLETELY MERCENARY. [9:27] I MEAN, BY THE WAY, THE E.U. IS [9:29] OUR LARGEST TRADING PARTNER, [9:30] WHICH HE SEEMS TO FORGET. [9:31] YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT [9:32] AMERICA. [9:33] I'M TALKING ABOUT DONALD TRUMP. [9:35] I'M JUST TRYING TO MAKE SENSE OF [9:36] IT. [9:37] IT'S AN ENDURING QUESTION THAT [9:38] IS HARD TO UNDERSTAND. [9:39] WELL, AND HE HAS BOASTED [9:41] WRONGLY, OF COURSE, ABOUT SAUDI [9:43] ARABIA SPENDING $30 TRILLION IN [9:46] AMERICA. [9:47] BY THE WAY, OUR WHOLE ECONOMY [9:50] IS ONLY $20 TRILLION. [9:51] I MEAN, SO, YES, I MEAN, I THINK [9:53] HE IS BEHOLDEN TO PEOPLE WITH [9:55] WHOM HE HAS SOME ECONOMIC [9:56] RELATIONSHIP. [9:57] HE TREADS CAREFULLY. [9:58] BUT, YOU KNOW, HE'S THE [9:59] PRESIDENT OF ALL THE PEOPLE. [10:00] HE SHOULDN'T BE DOING THAT. [10:02] I MEAN, THAT'S, YEAH, HE [10:03] SHOULDN'T BE IS SOMETHING WE [10:05] LOST LONG AGO. [10:06] ASHLEY, IS THAT A WAY TO [10:07] DESCRIBE IT? [10:08] I MEAN, YOU'VE, OR TO ANSWER [10:09] THAT QUESTION, YOU'VE BEEN [10:10] FOLLOWING HIM FOR AS LONG AS I [10:11] HAVE. [10:12] THERE ARE BUSINESS DEALS THAT [10:14] THE FAMILY IS MAKING, THAT THE [10:16] TRUMP ORGANIZATION IS MAKING [10:17] WITH A LOT OF THESE PLACES OR [10:19] OPPORTUNITIES THAT THEY'VE BEEN [10:20] SEEKING WITH A LOT OF THESE [10:21] PLACES. [10:22] YEAH, THAT'S TOTALLY FAIR. [10:26] I DON'T THINK IT'S AS PURELY [10:29] MERCENARY AS THAT. [10:31] I MEAN, PART OF THIS ALSO IS [10:33] THAT OUR ALLIES, WESTERN [10:35] DEMOCRACIES, AS THEY WOULD PUT [10:36] IT, HAVE BEEN WILLING TO HAVE [10:38] TOUGH, FRANK CONVERSATIONS WITH [10:40] THIS PRESIDENT, RIGHT? [10:41] WE'RE HAPPY TO HELP YOU HERE. [10:43] WE'RE HAPPY TO HELP YOU IN [10:44] THIS COUNTRY. [10:45] WE'RE NOT GOING TO HELP YOU [10:46] THERE. [10:47] WE DON'T LIKE THE FACT THAT YOU [10:48] UNILATERALLY LAUNCHED A WAR WITH [10:50] IRAN WITHOUT GETTING OUR BUY-IN. [10:52] AND THOSE ARE SOME OF THE TOUGH [10:54] CONVERSATIONS THAT SOME OF THOSE [10:55] OTHER COUNTRIES ARE NOT HAVING. [10:57] IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT THOSE GULF [10:59] ALLIES AND GULF STATES ARE [11:01] ACTING PURELY IN AMERICA'S [11:02] INTEREST OR EVEN ALWAYS IN [11:04] TRUMP'S FINANCIAL INTEREST, BUT [11:06] THEY HAVE IN GENERAL BEEN LESS [11:08] WILLING TO TELL HIM TOUGH TRUTH [11:10] TO HIS FACE.