How Trump Lost Rural Republicans — Political Breakdown

[0:00] Republican voters are depressed right now. [0:03] They don't like their candidates. [0:05] They don't think their candidates are good. [0:06] Like, if you talk to voters, Republican voters in Georgia, [0:11] they're like, ugh, I don't like John Ossoff, [0:14] but everyone I know is voting for him [0:16] because our candidate sucks. [0:20] Hey there, from KQED in San Francisco, [0:22] this is Political Breakdown. [0:24] I'm Marisa Lagos. [0:25] Today on The Breakdown, [0:26] the Bulwark CEO and publisher Sarah Longwell [0:29] has spoken with thousands of American voters [0:31] over the past decade. [0:33] A former Republican strategist who left the party [0:35] after President Trump's first election, [0:37] she's become one of the nation's preeminent experts [0:39] on voter sentiment, [0:41] thanks to the hundreds of focus groups she's led. [0:43] She recently wrote a book about what she's learned [0:46] in those focus groups and her own political journey. [0:48] It is called How to Eat an Elephant, One Voter at a Time. [0:52] On the eve of the midterm elections, [0:54] I am thrilled to welcome Sarah Longwell [0:56] back to The Breakdown to talk about [0:57] the state of U.S. politics in 2026. [1:00] Hey, Sarah. [1:00] Hey, how you doing? [1:02] Thanks for having me. [1:02] Yeah, well, since you wrote this book, [1:04] I mean, we've had you on the show a bunch, [1:06] but I do want to kind of go back [1:07] and for folks who may not be familiar with your journey, [1:11] remind us a little bit like who you are. [1:12] Do you consider yourself like a recovering Republican, [1:16] an independent? [1:17] Are you a Democrat now? [1:18] A journalist, an analyst? [1:20] Like you wear so many hats. [1:22] Yeah, I like to think that I'm just a normal liberal, [1:25] meaning somebody who believes in liberal democracy, [1:27] wants to preserve American liberal democracy. [1:32] And, you know, so much of what I do now, [1:36] I've displaced kind of my own personal [1:39] sort of ideological leanings [1:42] with what much more sort of present day threats, [1:45] because it's fine for me to be somebody who is, [1:47] and I am, obsessed with the national debt. [1:51] If you and I were to sit down and be like, [1:53] Sarah, what really lights you up? [1:54] I'd be like, let's talk about education reform. [1:56] But these days, like, that's just not where the discourse is. [2:00] And for me, when Trump happened the first time, [2:04] I was caught so off guard, like so many people were. [2:07] And especially, I realized sort of how detached [2:10] I had become, you know, [2:12] when you're just in think tank world in DC [2:14] or policy world talking about things, [2:16] they really aren't that connected to regular people. [2:21] And so part of my, I mean, I really, [2:23] I started the focus groups [2:24] because I wanted to primary Trump [2:26] after he first got elected. [2:28] And I was still thinking, okay, as a Republican, [2:30] how do you take back the Republican Party [2:32] from this authoritarian populist? [2:33] And what do you do? [2:35] And in my journey, [2:36] I realized a whole bunch of things [2:38] about Republican voters, [2:40] namely that the things that animated me, [2:43] like, you know, individual freedom, [2:47] personal liberty, American leadership in the world, [2:49] those are just not the things [2:51] that were animating voters. [2:52] And so I just, I've been not even on a journey [2:56] about my own political shifts, [2:58] but like trying to chronicle [3:00] the country's political shifts [3:01] and then understand how we mitigate the damage [3:05] being done by what I think [3:07] is a very dangerous version [3:09] of Trump's Republican Party. [3:11] Yeah, I mean, it is fascinating [3:13] because I do think you, [3:15] I mean, obviously you published The Bulwark, [3:16] but you have moved into this more like [3:17] almost journalistic role [3:19] where you do have to set aside [3:20] your personal feelings [3:21] and, you know, focus on the people [3:23] that you in this case [3:24] are studying through these focus groups. [3:26] And they're what really drive [3:28] a lot of your analysis [3:29] about the state of politics. [3:30] So explain like what is a focus group exactly [3:34] and why do you see them as so valuable? [3:37] Well, you know, I think part of it is [3:38] all of us, and right now, [3:40] I think we're all living with our polling PTSD [3:43] and I just can't live like that. [3:46] Like I need, [3:47] because the polls will kind of tell you what, right? [3:50] Okay, they might tell you who's up, [3:51] who's down, [3:52] and even that we're not sure how accurate it is, [3:54] but also it'll tell you things like, [3:55] well, this is what voters care about. [3:57] And I'm like, okay, [3:59] but that doesn't tell me the intensity [4:00] with which they care about it. [4:02] It doesn't tell me [4:03] their thought process for these things. [4:05] Right, because sometimes they just like read a list [4:06] and then they're like, [4:07] oh yeah, that, right? [4:08] That's a very different question. [4:10] Yeah. [4:11] And so I find it much more valuable to, [4:14] and this is how I start every single focus group. [4:15] And what we do is we screen for different groups. [4:18] So right now we're pretty obsessed with people [4:20] who voted for Trump in 2024, [4:22] but they rate him now as doing a very bad [4:26] or somewhat bad job. [4:27] So we would call these Trump disapprovers. [4:29] Now the Trump disapprovers, [4:30] and I think the big question going into 2026 is, [4:33] do those people potentially vote for Democrats? [4:36] Do they stay home? [4:37] Are they still willing to come out [4:39] and defend Trump's agenda? [4:40] Like, will they turn out to vote [4:41] because they want to make sure, [4:42] because they're so threatened by, [4:44] I don't know, trans stuff or, you know, socialism? [4:48] Like, is that going to motivate them? [4:50] And so, you know, for me, that's what I want. [4:54] I want to hear organically, [4:55] because I start with the same question. [4:57] I'll say, you know, [4:57] how do you think things are going in the country? [4:59] And that is the most illuminating question [5:02] from the entire group [5:03] that you're going to do in two hours, [5:04] because they're going to tell you organically [5:07] in that question what matters to them up top, [5:10] because it's what they sort of say. [5:11] So they'll say, you know, [5:12] no, I don't think things are going well. [5:14] And then they'll mention the war [5:16] or usually prices is really top of mind for people. [5:20] And they'll give you very specific things [5:22] that they were going into the store [5:24] and trying to buy [5:25] or some way in which high gas prices [5:26] impacted their lives [5:27] or things that they can't afford for their family, [5:29] trade-offs that they're making. [5:31] Or they'll talk about data centers. [5:33] And what they kind of bring up organically, [5:36] to me, is always the most interesting, [5:38] because it's one thing to be like, [5:39] OK, well, how do you feel about abortion? [5:41] Well, now you've introduced that [5:42] and you can tell them, [5:43] but you don't know [5:44] if that's a super motivating issue for them. [5:48] And so you get much more [5:49] from kind of the open-ended, [5:51] like, tell us what's driving you in this moment. [5:53] So is that, I mean, you started doing this, [5:56] as you kind of alluded to, [5:57] after Trump's first election. [5:59] Obviously, you know, [6:01] the politics has shifted over time. [6:03] Like, has your strategy changed over time? [6:07] Yeah, I mean, [6:07] the world has changed so much [6:10] in the last decade. [6:11] And so, you know, [6:12] there's been different moments. [6:13] I mean, there was a point [6:14] going back in 2022 [6:16] when obviously abortion [6:17] was this really high salience issue. [6:20] But also, you know, [6:22] one of the things that I really learned, [6:23] and I think you could see this [6:24] from 2022 to 2024, [6:26] abortion was a much more salient issue [6:28] in local elections [6:30] when people were voting for governors, [6:31] like in 2022, in the midterms. [6:33] It was also really fresh for people. [6:35] But then in 2024, [6:36] Democrats really leaned on that issue hard. [6:39] And I was like, ooh, [6:41] like, because in a national election, [6:43] it didn't matter as much to them. [6:45] And so, and I've seen, [6:47] you know, I've seen people, [6:48] so this is another thing [6:49] that I think is real evolution [6:51] that is really important [6:53] to how we understand [6:54] this moment right now. [6:55] And it's kind of a bummer of analysis, [6:58] but Trump was very corrupt [7:00] in his first term [7:01] and nobody cared. [7:02] Right. [7:02] Because as long as the economy was good, [7:05] the voters kind of let Trump [7:06] off the hook for so many things. [7:09] And so, you know, [7:10] in my original years [7:12] of doing focus groups, [7:12] what I was listening for was, [7:14] is it Trump's behavior, [7:16] his tweeting, [7:16] the racism, [7:17] the sexism, [7:19] the horrible, [7:20] unpresidential ways he talks, [7:22] the cozying up to Putin. [7:24] Those were not the big motivators. [7:26] What is causing people [7:27] to finally walk away from Trump [7:29] is that he broke [7:31] a bunch of his promises, [7:33] the central promises [7:34] of his 2024 campaign, [7:36] which were basically [7:37] in voters' minds. [7:39] It was, [7:40] we're going to release [7:40] the Epstein files, [7:41] I'm going to lower grocery prices [7:42] on day one, [7:43] which is really [7:43] the most important one. [7:44] I'm not going to get [7:45] into any stupid wars. [7:47] You know, [7:48] I'm going to be really transparent, [7:49] you know, [7:49] drain the swamp. [7:50] And everybody's like, [7:51] you're not doing [7:51] any of those things. [7:52] Even on immigration, [7:54] which is his strongest issue, [7:55] you get voters saying, [7:57] well, [7:57] I thought he was just [7:58] going to deport, [7:58] like, criminals, [8:00] like people who were [8:01] dangerous criminals [8:02] or violent criminals, [8:03] gangs. [8:04] I didn't think he was going [8:04] to go after the abuela [8:05] down the street. [8:07] And so, [8:08] I think watching [8:09] how people's relationship [8:10] to Trump [8:11] changes based on [8:13] the negative [8:15] personal consequences [8:16] for them [8:17] has been a really [8:18] interesting thing [8:20] to watch evolve [8:21] over time. [8:22] Yeah. [8:23] Well, [8:23] let's talk a little bit [8:24] about the sort of [8:26] current state of affairs. [8:27] So, [8:27] you kind of alluded to this, [8:29] but I wonder, [8:29] like, [8:30] what do you feel like [8:31] has changed most dramatically [8:32] among Trump voters [8:33] and Republicans more broadly [8:35] since you started [8:36] these focus groups [8:37] nearly a decade ago? [8:39] And is that driven [8:41] by just, [8:41] like, [8:42] the politics, [8:42] or is the media ecosystem, [8:45] like, [8:45] other elements, [8:46] you know, [8:46] part of that? [8:48] Yeah, [8:48] I mean, [8:48] one of the chapters [8:49] in the book [8:50] that I like the most [8:51] is where I talk about [8:53] the way that voters [8:55] get their information. [8:56] Because to me, [8:56] this has been one [8:57] of the big, [8:59] it's not an imperceptible shift, [9:00] but I think sometimes [9:01] until you really lay it out [9:02] for people, [9:03] you're like, [9:03] I've heard a lot of people [9:04] talk to me about that chapter [9:05] being like, [9:06] I hadn't really thought [9:07] about it that way before. [9:08] And I'll give you an example, [9:09] which is, [9:09] I talk about the difference [9:11] now between news seekers [9:13] and news receivers. [9:14] So those of us [9:16] who are sort of, [9:17] sick in the head, [9:18] sick in the head, [9:19] that's right. [9:20] Let's call it space, [9:20] space, yeah. [9:21] Right? [9:22] But it all, [9:22] it used to be that, [9:23] that most Americans [9:25] spent time with the news [9:27] at some point, [9:28] right? [9:28] They read the newspaper [9:29] in the morning over breakfast, [9:30] or they watched the evening news, [9:31] or maybe they watched cable, [9:33] but like, [9:33] they had this time [9:34] that they spent [9:34] to gain information. [9:35] And over time, [9:38] the amount of incoming [9:40] for voters [9:41] that is on their phones, [9:43] that is just them scrolling, [9:44] that is the extent [9:45] to which politics permeates, [9:47] like, [9:47] there's not specific time [9:49] with the news, [9:49] there's just an algorithm [9:50] that like, [9:51] washes over people. [9:52] And so we ask voters [9:53] in the groups [9:54] and have for years and years [9:55] where they get [9:56] their information. [9:57] And it used to be [9:59] that people could tell you [10:00] where they were seeing [10:01] some information, [10:02] and now they say, [10:04] I don't know where I saw this. [10:05] Like, [10:05] the constant state of, [10:07] I heard this somewhere, [10:09] I saw this somewhere, [10:10] I have no idea, [10:11] which means they had no way [10:12] to adjudicate in their minds [10:13] whether that information [10:15] was correct, [10:15] it was a scrolling headline, [10:17] it was their favorite [10:18] cooking influencer, [10:19] it was on TikTok, [10:20] it was on Instagram, [10:22] they heard a celebrity say it, [10:23] like, [10:23] they don't know. [10:25] And so we've always had [10:26] this phrase called [10:27] low information voters, [10:28] and I don't have [10:30] a new phrase exactly, [10:31] but I sort of want it [10:32] to be like, [10:32] like, [10:33] information overwhelmed. [10:34] Voters, [10:36] which again is to say [10:37] people who are not [10:38] purposefully seeking out [10:41] the news or information [10:42] and their ability [10:43] to adjudicate it, [10:45] it's that it hits them [10:46] from all these places [10:47] and it kind of levels up [10:48] to a thing [10:49] that political scientists [10:50] would never call it this, [10:52] but I will, [10:53] vibes, right? [10:53] And I talk a lot about [10:54] the rise of the vibes voter, [10:56] and I think we used to have this, [10:59] it used to be axiomatic [11:00] that politics was downstream [11:01] from culture, [11:02] and now I think culture [11:04] and politics [11:04] is just much more fused [11:06] in part because of [11:07] the way the information [11:09] environment is hitting us all [11:10] because it's changed so much. [11:12] Well, [11:12] and it's also like [11:12] social media sort of [11:13] flattens everything, [11:15] like this was my husband's [11:16] argument against like [11:17] putting our kids [11:17] on social media [11:18] or big life announcements, [11:19] like then it's like [11:20] basically at the same level [11:21] as like the burrito [11:22] somebody ate for lunch [11:23] that they're posting about, [11:24] right? [11:24] And you can't always [11:26] kind of disentangle [11:27] all of that, [11:28] but I mean one thing [11:30] we're hearing from both polls [11:31] and from focus groups [11:32] and from anecdotal [11:33] and you know conversations [11:34] is just like, [11:35] as you mentioned earlier, [11:36] like how much the economy [11:38] is really driving people's [11:39] opinions of Trump [11:40] of this election, [11:41] his approval ratings [11:42] in the 30s in most polls, [11:44] it was as low as 32 [11:45] in a recent Reuters-Ipsos poll. [11:47] And I wonder like [11:48] when you think about [11:49] all the things [11:50] that sort of feed [11:51] into that economic anxiety, [11:53] Iran and gas prices, [11:54] inflation, AI, [11:56] immigration, [11:57] inequality more broadly, [11:58] like is, [11:59] are any of those [12:00] rising to the top [12:01] of the heap [12:01] or is it just sort of [12:02] all this anxious stew? [12:05] I do think that, [12:06] you know, [12:07] the old saying, [12:09] it's the economy stupid [12:10] is both very, very true, [12:12] but also sort of [12:13] doesn't quite get at [12:15] what is truly happening [12:16] for voters [12:17] because part of what it is [12:19] is when things [12:20] kind of fuse together [12:21] in one big ball [12:23] of economic anxiety, [12:25] as you put it, [12:26] because there is [12:26] a lot of anxiety, [12:27] but that is everything from [12:29] because in some ways [12:30] I think almost everything [12:31] is the economy and costs, [12:34] but people know [12:35] we're talking about [12:35] grocery prices [12:36] and they know [12:36] we're talking about [12:37] gas prices, [12:38] but also the things [12:39] that come up all the time [12:40] in focus groups [12:41] is the cost of childcare [12:43] and the trade-offs [12:44] that especially women [12:45] are making [12:45] because they're like, [12:46] well, I could work, [12:47] but I'm working [12:48] just to pay my childcare costs [12:50] is a thing we hear a lot. [12:51] We hear a ton [12:52] about healthcare [12:53] and people feeling like [12:55] not only is it too complicated [12:57] and also, you know, [12:59] that it's so expensive [13:00] and, you know, [13:02] it's, so all of those things [13:03] come together [13:04] and make up people's [13:06] particular economic situation. [13:07] It's also just a general feeling [13:08] of my kids aren't getting [13:11] as good an education [13:12] as I feel like I got [13:13] is something that we hear [13:14] about a lot. [13:15] Are they going to have jobs [13:15] because of AI? [13:15] Are they going to have jobs [13:16] and then AI, [13:17] and there's a ton of AI anxiety, [13:19] and I would say [13:20] I have a theory of the case [13:22] that I'm going to say [13:23] and may or may not [13:24] bear out in 2026, [13:27] but I think that the voters [13:30] that you are going to see [13:32] stay home [13:33] are the rural voters [13:36] who often provide Donald Trump [13:38] his biggest margins. [13:39] One of the reasons [13:40] that Donald Trump [13:40] is such a potent political figure [13:42] is that he brought [13:44] all of these new people [13:45] into, I mean, [13:47] this is something [13:48] that I think sometimes [13:48] people forget [13:49] as we've had [13:50] over our recent elections [13:51] the highest levels [13:53] of participation [13:54] in American history, [13:55] and it's not because [13:57] our democracy is thriving. [13:58] It is because people [13:59] on both sides [14:00] are like deeply polarized, [14:02] deeply anxious [14:03] about the threat [14:03] of the other side, [14:04] and I just think [14:07] that these rural voters [14:09] who turn out [14:10] at these high levels [14:11] for Trump [14:12] that are new [14:12] to the political system, [14:15] I hear them from them [14:15] in focus groups all the time [14:16] and say, [14:17] I came because of Trump [14:18] because he was not [14:19] a regular politician. [14:19] He was doing something different. [14:21] I suspect [14:22] that those voters [14:24] are the ones [14:25] where you see turnout [14:27] collapse in 2026. [14:28] The reason being [14:29] that, you know, [14:31] if you're one of the people [14:32] who's like a Trump boat person, [14:33] like, give or see [14:33] the Trump boat parades [14:35] in Florida or whatever, [14:36] well, if you own a boat, [14:37] then you're surviving [14:38] in this economy just fine. [14:40] But for a lot of those [14:40] rural white-collar voters, [14:42] they are dealing [14:42] with the fact that [14:43] their prices are now [14:45] prohibitive for their lives. [14:47] Gas prices, [14:47] they often have to drive further [14:48] than other people [14:49] to live their lives. [14:50] So gas prices really inhibit. [14:52] We're seeing that [14:52] in the swing congressional districts [14:54] here in California. [14:54] I believe it. [14:55] I hear about it all the time. [14:56] And then there's the AI. [14:57] You know, [14:58] those voters are the ones [14:59] that are most worried [15:00] both about AI taking their jobs [15:02] and also, [15:04] they're the ones [15:05] who live in the places [15:06] where the AI facilities [15:08] are being built [15:09] and they are fighting. [15:10] Like the data centers [15:11] are something where like [15:12] they're upset [15:14] that they're being built [15:15] where there's lots of land, [15:16] which means in the rural areas [15:17] and it's driving up [15:18] their energy prices. [15:19] They think it has, [15:20] you know, [15:20] they talk about [15:21] environmental impacts. [15:22] And so I suspect [15:23] that those voters [15:24] are actually [15:25] the most frustrated [15:26] with Trump [15:28] and that they're the ones [15:29] who don't turn out. [15:30] That's my personal pet theory. [15:32] I mean, [15:32] it's interesting [15:33] because you kind of [15:34] talked about this [15:34] with like the corruption [15:35] being something [15:36] that's actually resonating [15:37] with folks [15:38] because of the economic situation. [15:40] And it strikes me like [15:41] that's probably true [15:42] around this. [15:43] Another thing I think [15:44] Democrats kind of swung [15:45] and missed on in 22 and 24, [15:47] which was corruption, [15:47] or sorry, democracy. [15:49] Like this idea [15:50] of people being anxious [15:51] about whether, [15:52] you know, [15:53] democracy is under attack. [15:55] I mean, [15:55] I know you've pointed out [15:56] and I've also noticed [15:57] like that also really depends [15:59] on like what that means [16:00] to voters depends [16:00] on where they sit [16:01] in the political spectrum, [16:02] right? [16:03] So like Republicans [16:04] are worried about democracy [16:05] in a totally different way [16:06] than Republicans. [16:08] But we do have some tape [16:10] of some of your focus group folks [16:12] talking about this [16:13] whole corruption issue. [16:14] and I just want to play it [16:15] and have you react here. [16:17] What everyone else was saying [16:18] is it's pretty blatant right now. [16:20] Like there's no hiding it. [16:21] It's just happening. [16:22] And like Trump says, [16:23] I don't care. [16:24] This is how we're going to do it. [16:26] It's me and that's [16:26] how we're doing it. [16:27] The buck stops with him [16:28] if he's condoning it, [16:30] if he's doing it himself, [16:31] if he's turning a blind eye to it, [16:33] while at the same time [16:35] J.D. Vance is supposedly, [16:36] you know, [16:37] on the anti-fraud task force. [16:40] It's a bit ironic. [16:41] I mean, [16:43] it's so fascinating to me [16:44] because the level of, [16:47] you know, [16:48] sort of blatant grift [16:49] by this administration [16:50] is something we've never seen [16:52] before in American history. [16:54] And I want to like talk about [16:56] some of the individual races. [16:57] So let's just jump into like the Senate. [16:59] I know you kind of have a crush [16:59] on John Ossoff. [17:01] I do and I'm not going [17:02] to apologize for it. [17:04] Well, [17:04] talk about him [17:06] because he's done [17:06] a really interesting job [17:08] of tying the corruption [17:09] and laying it out in a way, [17:11] you know, [17:11] tying the corruption to you [17:13] and how you are being affected [17:15] by this administration, [17:16] but also doing it in a way [17:17] that I think people [17:18] can actually like understand. [17:21] Yeah. [17:21] I mean, [17:22] I have a communications crush [17:23] on John Ossoff. [17:25] And the reason I wrote the book [17:27] in part was because [17:28] I was so deeply frustrated [17:30] with the way that Democrats [17:31] sort of did their communications. [17:34] Like Joe Biden, [17:35] obviously, [17:35] was a pretty elderly guy. [17:37] And so he wasn't able [17:39] to go out there [17:40] and like give these [17:41] barn burner speeches, [17:42] wasn't able to really explain [17:43] his thought process [17:44] all the time. [17:45] And so for, [17:47] and I think Democrats [17:48] kind of ran from him [17:50] because he wasn't, [17:51] he wasn't thriving [17:52] during his term. [17:53] And as a result, [17:55] right, [17:55] that's a big part of the reason [17:56] we got Trump again [17:57] is because people felt [17:58] like inflation was too high. [17:59] They didn't have a sense [18:00] of what Biden's [18:01] economic strategy was, [18:02] even though they were recovering. [18:04] Like we were in the middle [18:05] of a recovery [18:06] from the pandemic [18:06] and there was like [18:08] lots of positive things to say, [18:10] but I think that the [18:10] Biden administration [18:11] kind of just said, [18:12] no, [18:12] it's good. [18:13] The economy is good. [18:14] And voters were like, [18:15] no, [18:15] it's not. [18:16] No, [18:17] it's not. [18:17] Well, [18:17] this is what Trump does now. [18:19] Trump's getting hit [18:19] with the same thing, [18:20] which is Trump's just like, [18:21] no, [18:21] it's fine. [18:21] It's fine. [18:22] I'm getting rich. [18:23] He's like, [18:24] yeah, [18:25] yeah. [18:25] No. [18:25] And, [18:26] and, [18:26] and so I just, [18:29] for voters, [18:30] the, [18:31] the affordability issue, [18:34] like is the lead [18:36] into the corruption issue, [18:38] but I've been frustrated [18:39] with Democrats' [18:40] inability to tie them together. [18:41] And John Ossoff [18:42] is one of the first people [18:44] to take, [18:45] to stand up on stage [18:46] and walk people through it. [18:48] And it shows you [18:49] the value [18:50] of a leader [18:51] with strong communications capabilities. [18:53] I also like Pete Buttigieg [18:55] a great deal [18:55] for a similar reason, [18:57] which is, [18:57] you know, [18:57] he just released this video [18:58] where he sat down [18:59] at a Waffle House [19:00] and he walked through the menu [19:01] of everything he ordered [19:02] and explained [19:03] why the tariffs [19:05] and the war, [19:06] like why they were driving up [19:07] the prices of their food. [19:09] And I was like, [19:10] where was all of that [19:11] in 2024? [19:12] And I just, [19:14] this sort of ability [19:16] to go on offense [19:17] against Trump [19:17] and also connect it [19:18] to the things people [19:20] are feeling in their lives [19:21] had, [19:21] had really been missing [19:22] for a while. [19:23] And now, [19:24] now we've got it. [19:25] And so I'm, [19:26] I'm thrilled by that. [19:27] Yeah. [19:27] Well, [19:28] as we kind of established, [19:29] I mean, [19:29] you were a Republican, [19:30] you're still, [19:31] I would sort of assume [19:32] center right [19:32] in your politics. [19:33] You've also had [19:34] really kind words though [19:35] for some of the more [19:37] high profile progressives [19:39] who have emerged. [19:40] And, [19:40] and these are folks [19:41] who often give [19:42] the kind of more moderate [19:43] Democrats some heartburn, [19:44] but I think they share [19:46] Ossoff's communication skill. [19:48] I'm thinking about [19:49] New York City mayors [19:49] around Mamdani, [19:51] AOC, [19:52] of course, [19:53] and then Abdul El-Sayed [19:54] who's running [19:55] for Senate in Michigan. [19:56] What do you see, [19:57] let's, [19:58] I mean, [19:58] sticking with him, [19:59] El-Sayed, [19:59] like what do you see [20:00] about his political talent? [20:01] Because I think a lot [20:02] of folks who are skeptical [20:04] of him in the Democratic Party [20:05] are like, [20:05] oh, [20:05] he's too aggressive. [20:06] He hasn't always been [20:08] communicated the way [20:09] they would like [20:10] to see him do it. [20:12] Yeah. [20:12] And I would say [20:13] I share, [20:14] I think El-Sayed [20:15] can be a little hit or miss [20:17] on some of this, [20:18] but I do, [20:19] again, [20:20] sometimes now, [20:21] like my ideology [20:22] tends to be [20:23] subservient to [20:25] both my [20:27] desperate desire [20:28] to stave off [20:30] the authoritarians [20:31] who I think [20:31] are already [20:31] in the gate, [20:33] inside the gates [20:33] of America, [20:34] and then also [20:35] just like my nerd-dom [20:36] about what is happening [20:38] with voters. [20:39] And so El-Sayed [20:40] is interesting to me [20:41] because he's trying [20:43] to put together [20:43] actually a different [20:44] coalition. [20:46] So Roy Cooper [20:47] in North Carolina, [20:49] John Ossoff [20:50] in Georgia, [20:51] James Tallarico [20:52] in Texas, [20:54] there's a lot [20:55] of other examples [20:55] of this. [20:56] because they're [20:56] kind of putting [20:57] together a coalition [20:58] of voters [20:59] that are [21:00] swingy independents [21:02] and the base [21:03] of their party, [21:04] right? [21:05] Sort of the broad [21:05] base of their party [21:06] is swingy independents. [21:07] Kind of the same [21:07] playbook we've seen [21:08] in swing states [21:09] in past cycles. [21:10] That's right. [21:10] And this would be [21:11] like a Joe Biden [21:12] coalition. [21:12] I mean, [21:12] you've got Josh Shapiro [21:13] who's going to just [21:14] absolutely annihilate [21:15] his Republican opponent [21:16] in Pennsylvania. [21:19] And in doing that, [21:20] they tend to be [21:21] sort of, [21:21] yeah, [21:21] winning over [21:22] these just kind of [21:23] like moderate [21:23] swingy voters. [21:24] El-Sayed is kind [21:26] of trying to take [21:27] like the Tucker [21:28] Carlson, [21:29] America First [21:30] right, [21:30] Marjorie Taylor [21:31] Green, [21:32] people who are [21:33] mad about Israel, [21:35] who want healthcare [21:35] for all, [21:36] who kind of want [21:36] to do economic [21:37] populism, [21:39] and taking some [21:40] of the economic [21:40] populism of the [21:41] right and fusing [21:43] that with his [21:44] particular progressive [21:45] vision. [21:46] And I'm interested [21:47] to see how that [21:48] works. [21:48] Like, [21:48] does he wildly [21:49] underperform [21:50] some of these [21:51] other candidates [21:52] or is that, [21:53] does that work? [21:55] Does he bring out [21:55] new voters? [21:56] I mean, [21:56] we're seeing that [21:56] here in one of [21:57] the congressional races, [21:58] the David Valadao [21:58] seat, [21:59] Randy Villegas [22:00] is kind of [22:00] trying the same [22:01] theory of the case. [22:02] Like, [22:03] we, [22:03] you know, [22:04] as Democrats, [22:04] we failed repeatedly [22:05] to get out, [22:06] you know, [22:06] these voters [22:07] who just don't vote, [22:08] so we might as well [22:09] try to get out [22:09] a new, [22:10] you know, [22:10] group of folks. [22:12] I mean, [22:13] I do wonder, [22:14] just like, [22:14] because you do [22:15] so many of these [22:15] focus groups, [22:16] how are you looking [22:17] at the Senate math [22:18] at this point? [22:19] Do you think Democrats [22:20] could take the Senate [22:21] and our, [22:22] you know, [22:22] we're seeing, [22:23] you know, [22:24] money flow to states [22:25] that, [22:26] Iowa, [22:27] Kansas, [22:27] places we didn't even think [22:28] would be in play [22:29] a year ago. [22:31] Yeah, [22:31] I mean, [22:32] look, [22:32] I'm vibrating [22:33] with excitement [22:33] going into this, [22:35] but I also have, [22:36] like I've said before, [22:37] a lot of polling PTSD. [22:40] The thing that gives me [22:42] the most optimism, [22:43] it's the reason [22:43] I like supplementing, [22:45] like I would never [22:46] do focus groups [22:46] as the only mechanism [22:47] for understanding [22:48] the political environment, [22:49] but when you take [22:50] the polls [22:50] and then you do [22:52] as much qualitative [22:52] stuff as I do, [22:54] because I do multiple [22:55] groups a week [22:55] for multiple states, [22:57] and you start to see [22:58] a lot of patterns. [22:59] And one of the big [23:01] things I'm seeing, [23:01] and again, [23:02] it goes to my theory [23:03] about rural voters, [23:04] is just Republican voters [23:06] are depressed [23:07] right now. [23:08] They don't like [23:09] their candidates. [23:10] They don't think [23:11] their candidates are good. [23:12] Like if you talk [23:12] to voters, [23:14] Republican voters [23:14] in Georgia, [23:16] they're like, [23:17] ugh, [23:17] I don't like [23:19] John Ossoff, [23:20] but everyone I know [23:20] is voting for him [23:21] because our candidate sucks. [23:23] And there's a lot [23:24] of that in Kansas [23:26] where they're like, [23:27] this guy doesn't [23:27] even live here. [23:29] And even in Maine, [23:31] Susan Collins, [23:32] one of the things [23:33] I've been seeing [23:34] in Maine [23:34] that's really interesting [23:35] is a sense of [23:36] people who say, [23:37] I voted for her [23:38] all these past elections, [23:40] but she's no longer [23:41] independent from Trump. [23:43] And if you puncture [23:45] Susan Collins' [23:45] sense of being [23:46] an independent, [23:48] that is a real liability [23:50] for her in Maine. [23:51] Now, [23:51] am I sure [23:52] she's going to win Maine? [23:53] I am not sure [23:53] she's going to win Maine. [23:54] Susan Collins sits [23:55] on a throne of skulls [23:57] of her opponents. [23:59] She's tough to beat. [24:00] And voters are super lukewarm [24:02] in Maine on Troy Jackson. [24:04] Like they think [24:04] he is a warm body, [24:05] but also a lot of them [24:07] are like, [24:07] and I'm fine with that [24:08] this cycle. [24:10] So that, [24:11] but that to me [24:12] is really illustrative, [24:13] this sense of [24:15] Republican voters [24:16] just feeling like, [24:17] why show up? [24:19] There's nothing to defend [24:20] in this administration. [24:21] Like unless you're [24:21] really animated [24:22] about the perceived threat [24:24] of socialism [24:25] or trans kids [24:27] in sports [24:28] or whatever it is [24:29] that the Trump, [24:30] you know, [24:30] people are trying to say [24:32] is something [24:32] that they can do. [24:34] There's just not [24:35] a lot of enthusiasm [24:35] for the Trump agenda [24:36] right now. [24:37] Yeah. [24:39] Well, since I have you, [24:40] I'd love to look [24:40] a bit ahead [24:41] from next Tuesday [24:42] and think about [24:43] 2028 and beyond. [24:45] And I guess to start, [24:46] I'm just curious, [24:47] like, do you feel [24:47] like looking back [24:48] you misread [24:49] anything in 2024? [24:53] Well, one thing [24:54] that I guess haunts [24:56] me a little bit [24:57] with Kamala Harris [24:58] is one thing [24:59] I read very clearly [25:00] was how much voters [25:01] didn't want Joe Biden [25:03] to be the nominee. [25:03] Yes, you were prescient [25:04] in that. [25:05] I want to give you [25:06] credit here. [25:06] Yes. [25:07] Yeah. [25:07] I mean, [25:08] and I sometimes [25:09] people are like, [25:10] I don't know, [25:11] they think that [25:12] because Kamala [25:13] in that hundred days [25:14] that she ran [25:15] for president, [25:16] she tried to run [25:17] kind of a moderate [25:17] campaign. [25:18] People are like, [25:19] see, she tried [25:20] to run a centrist [25:21] campaign and she [25:21] didn't win. [25:22] And I was like, [25:23] yeah, guys, [25:24] that's not a real campaign. [25:26] That was like [25:26] this truncated short. [25:27] Yeah. [25:28] Although we can have [25:29] a whole conversation [25:30] about like, [25:30] who is she actually [25:31] politically and would [25:32] that have been [25:33] a similar campaign [25:34] if she had had longer? [25:35] Because I do think [25:36] one thing she's [25:37] struggled with [25:38] having covered her [25:39] for 20 years [25:39] is like, [25:40] where is she [25:41] on a lot of this stuff? [25:42] Oh no, 100%. [25:43] Well, this is... [25:43] And that's an [25:44] authenticity problem too. [25:45] And I write, [25:46] I have a whole chapter [25:47] on this in the book [25:49] because I was there [25:51] when she did, [25:52] I moderated one [25:53] of those Liz Cheney, [25:53] Kamala Harris events. [25:55] And so this is the, [25:56] sorry, [25:56] this is the thing [25:56] that I think [25:57] I would say [25:58] is like a bit [25:59] of a misreading [25:59] is people were so [26:00] down on Joe Biden [26:02] that when they, [26:03] when Kamala Harris [26:04] became the nominee, [26:05] the level of enthusiasm [26:06] among Democrats [26:07] went so high [26:09] right out of the gate. [26:11] They were so thrilled [26:12] to have somebody else there [26:14] that they could [26:15] pin their hopes on [26:16] that I think [26:17] I did overread it [26:19] a little bit [26:19] in terms of, [26:20] because I was also hearing [26:22] and also like full, [26:25] full disclosure, [26:25] I wanted her to win [26:26] very, very badly. [26:28] Yeah. [26:28] And so their enthusiasm [26:30] was the same enthusiasm [26:31] that I shared. [26:33] And I think the thing [26:35] that when I went back [26:38] and really listened [26:39] to them again, [26:40] because I did, [26:40] I went and listened [26:41] to everything again. [26:42] And even at the time [26:43] I saw it, [26:43] but I undercounted [26:45] it a little bit [26:45] was this way [26:47] that people are like, [26:48] but who is she? [26:49] And this is like, [26:50] people right now [26:51] are trying to have [26:51] this retro fit argument [26:54] where they're like, [26:54] no, she lost [26:55] because she was too progressive. [26:56] No, she lost [26:57] because she was too moderate. [26:58] Well, it was kind [26:59] of a little bit of both, [27:00] right? [27:01] She was, [27:01] she was viewed [27:02] as a California progressive. [27:04] That was making it, [27:05] it was hurting her [27:06] with more centrist voters [27:07] or swingier independent voters. [27:09] So she kind of ran hard [27:10] to the center [27:11] at the very end [27:12] and it left people [27:13] with this very muddled [27:14] impression of her [27:15] and she wasn't good enough. [27:17] She's not sort of enough [27:18] of a political athlete [27:19] to have been able [27:20] to talk to everyone, [27:22] go everywhere, [27:23] really explain who she was, [27:24] be super authentic, [27:25] give people the sense [27:26] of here's my strategy, [27:27] here's what I'm going to do. [27:27] I'm going to break with Biden. [27:28] We did these things wrong. [27:30] Like if she had a, [27:31] so sometimes people think [27:32] it's about the policies [27:33] and it wasn't really. [27:35] And so I do think [27:36] that that would be [27:38] the thing that I, [27:39] because I don't even remember [27:40] if I was on, [27:41] but certainly at the time [27:42] I was like, [27:43] man, the world has changed. [27:45] Right. [27:45] And I think that it had, [27:47] I just wasn't enough [27:48] to get over. [27:49] Right. [27:49] I mean, [27:49] it was a very close election [27:50] to be fair. [27:51] And I do think [27:52] I've heard you talk about this, [27:53] like the authenticity question [27:54] is so real now [27:55] because we are so, [27:57] even though we're further away [27:58] because of things [27:59] like social media, [27:59] we're closer to people too. [28:01] So there's like this level [28:02] of voters need [28:04] to really feel [28:05] like they understand [28:06] and know you [28:07] in a way that [28:08] when we were all watching [28:09] the evening news, [28:10] maybe it was not the case. [28:12] So given that, [28:14] like who do you see [28:15] as the strongest [28:16] Democratic contenders [28:17] for 2028? [28:19] I mean, [28:20] my three personal preferences [28:23] are the people [28:23] that I'm watching. [28:24] You've got John Ossoff, [28:26] who I think, [28:27] look, [28:28] he's a breakout star. [28:29] I mean, [28:29] a lot of the country [28:30] still doesn't know him [28:31] because they're not tapped [28:31] into politics, [28:32] so they're not watching [28:33] the Georgia Senate race. [28:34] But he looks [28:35] like a moment [28:37] is choosing him [28:38] even more than [28:39] he's choosing a moment [28:41] because he has something [28:44] that is both, [28:46] that I think is sort of [28:47] essential for a politician, [28:48] which is he's at some remove, [28:50] like people see him [28:51] as being slightly, [28:53] like he's not just [28:54] any other, [28:56] any guy. [28:56] He's got some like [28:57] Obama vibes in that way. [28:58] Yeah, [28:59] like there's a little bit [28:59] of like an, [29:00] I'm a serious person [29:02] for a serious moment. [29:04] But also, [29:05] he's got a real theory [29:07] of the case [29:07] about how he communicates. [29:09] And he's not afraid [29:10] to go hard. [29:11] And voters do want somebody [29:12] who's going to go fight. [29:15] And I think that [29:16] Gavin Newsom [29:17] was doing something [29:17] that looked like [29:19] kind of a performance art, [29:20] right? [29:21] He was kind of mimicking [29:22] Trump back to himself. [29:23] And that excited voters [29:24] for a little bit, [29:25] but I think that was [29:25] kind of a sugar high [29:26] because I actually think [29:27] what John Ossoff is offering [29:29] is a much more durable [29:30] picture of what [29:32] they might want. [29:32] But then there's also people, [29:34] again, [29:34] like Pete Buttigieg, [29:35] who I think is [29:35] an excellent communicator. [29:37] He's going into [29:37] all the red places. [29:39] Like he's got [29:39] a different theory. [29:40] His theory, [29:40] well, [29:40] he's not running [29:41] a Senate race right now, [29:42] but what he does [29:42] is he goes to Oklahoma [29:44] and he goes to Iowa. [29:45] He goes to Kansas. [29:47] He goes to all these red places [29:48] and he's going [29:48] and helping every Democrat [29:49] right now. [29:50] And you know what he does? [29:50] He tries to talk [29:51] to Republicans. [29:52] And he goes on Fox News [29:54] and he shows people [29:55] that he can sit [29:56] in those spaces [29:57] and be an effective [29:57] communicator the way [29:58] a lot of their politicians [29:59] can't. [30:00] And then you get [30:00] Josh Shapiro, [30:02] who like Josh Shapiro [30:04] is going to run [30:05] based on the fact [30:06] that he won [30:06] in the largest swing state [30:08] by 20 points. [30:09] And that is going [30:10] to be compelling. [30:11] But then there's also, [30:12] look, first of all, [30:14] everyone and their mom [30:14] is going to run. [30:15] Right. [30:15] I mean, it's going to be [30:16] a very crowded stage. [30:18] I'm interested to see whether [30:19] PTSD. [30:20] Yeah, to me, [30:21] what's interesting [30:22] is how if you end up [30:23] with, let's just say [30:24] the three that I mentioned, [30:24] and then you've also got [30:25] your John Kelly's [30:27] and I'm sorry, [30:28] not John Kelly, [30:29] your Mark Kelly's. [30:31] You've got J.B. Pritzker. [30:33] I think that you kind of [30:35] don't see as much [30:36] in the like hardcore [30:37] progressive lane. [30:39] And so that's kind of [30:40] wide open for [30:41] if AOC doesn't run [30:43] and like I assume [30:45] Bernie is too old to run, [30:47] you kind of end up [30:48] in that lane [30:48] with maybe a Rokana. [30:49] But I think there might [30:51] be more space there. [30:54] So it'll be interesting. [30:56] I do think, [30:56] I think Alyssa Slotkin [30:58] may very well run. [31:00] Gosh, there's so many. [31:01] I mean, I don't know [31:02] that I think [31:03] Gretchen Whitmer's [31:03] going to run, [31:04] but I think that she [31:05] would want to be [31:05] on people's shortlist [31:06] for VP. [31:08] There's a lot of Democrats [31:09] who are ready to come out [31:12] and give it a swing. [31:13] But I would just say [31:14] for me, [31:14] and I think for a lot [31:15] of voters, [31:17] they're right now, [31:18] they are going to want [31:19] to see it is going to matter [31:20] who stood up to Trump [31:22] in this moment [31:23] and who was visible [31:24] for standing up to him [31:25] when people think about [31:27] who they're going to vote [31:27] for in 2028. [31:29] But you do not see a path [31:30] for a Californian, [31:31] I think. [31:33] So, look, [31:35] I don't know. [31:35] I don't think Kamala Harris [31:36] should run again. [31:38] And I know a lot of people do. [31:40] I just, [31:41] I think sometimes [31:42] like you don't get [31:43] a second chance. [31:44] And that's just part [31:45] of politics, right? [31:46] Yeah. [31:48] I think people are going [31:49] to want to move on. [31:50] From that. [31:52] I think Newsom, [31:53] look, [31:53] he's on most people's [31:54] short lists. [31:55] I found it really suspicious [31:57] when he said [31:58] he wouldn't run [31:58] if Kamala did. [32:01] Maybe that's because [32:02] they share a big donor base. [32:03] But I also think [32:04] it probably means [32:04] he thinks she's not [32:05] going to run [32:06] and he wanted the cred [32:07] that he gets from that. [32:08] Yeah. [32:09] I think Newsom, [32:13] here's what I think. [32:13] I think Democrats think [32:15] that they definitely want [32:16] a straight white man [32:20] who is going [32:21] to take on Trump [32:22] and who's really smart, [32:23] whatever. [32:24] And then I think [32:24] they're going to see it [32:25] in practice. [32:27] And I, [32:29] with Gavin Newsom, [32:30] him being sort of [32:31] the most in that vein [32:31] and they're going to say, [32:32] you know what? [32:33] That's not what I want [32:34] right now. [32:34] I want one of these young, [32:36] give me one of these [32:36] young up and comer guys. [32:39] I'm not certain of that, [32:40] but I'm not, [32:42] Gavin Newsom [32:43] doesn't light me up. [32:44] But I'm not a great person. [32:46] I also, [32:46] I just feel like [32:47] he had a moment. [32:47] Like he had a flair [32:48] off with people. [32:49] And no one mentions him. [32:50] No one mentions him anymore. [32:51] Was last year's Prop 50 [32:53] like social media war [32:55] his like high watermark? [32:56] High watermark. [32:57] We'll have to see. [32:57] It might be. [32:58] Do you, [32:59] I've heard you say like [33:00] that we could see [33:03] even Republican candidates [33:04] talking about things [33:05] like maybe not [33:06] Medicare for all, [33:08] but even more [33:09] universal health care, [33:10] like that single payer [33:11] will become less toxic perhaps. [33:15] We're about to head [33:16] into an election here [33:17] with this huge wealth tax [33:18] on billionaires. [33:19] It is not looking great [33:19] in polling, [33:20] but it is a conversation [33:22] that I think, [33:23] you know, [33:23] is going to be part [33:24] of the Democratic [33:25] 2020 conversation, [33:27] whether it's like [33:27] that type of tax [33:28] or something else, [33:29] but just like taxing [33:30] billionaires more. [33:30] Like, [33:31] what do you think [33:32] about like those [33:33] sort of populist type things [33:35] and how they're going [33:35] to play maybe [33:37] on both sides of the aisle [33:38] in some ways? [33:39] So I do think that [33:41] we are in a bit [33:43] of a populist moment. [33:44] It's a tough time [33:45] for America to be [33:45] in a big populist [33:46] economic moment [33:47] because we have [33:47] $40 trillion in debt. [33:50] The bond market's [33:51] looking real shaky. [33:52] You know, [33:53] Trump's been obviously [33:54] running, [33:55] you know, [33:55] the economy. [33:55] How we got high inflation. [33:57] So, [33:57] you know, [33:58] it's a weird time [33:58] to then try to do [34:00] something like Medicare [34:00] for all. [34:01] But also, [34:03] I also do think [34:04] that on the Republican side, [34:06] there is an America [34:07] first wing of the party [34:09] that is kind of [34:09] a Tucker Carlson, [34:10] Marjorie Taylor Greene, [34:12] and this is where [34:13] I say that horseshoe [34:14] with Abdul El-Sayed, [34:15] where it is just [34:17] populist economics [34:18] all the way down. [34:19] It's a lot of promises. [34:20] And I do think [34:21] that people want [34:22] some kind of [34:24] universal access [34:26] to health care. [34:27] I think it's an [34:28] interesting conversation, [34:30] though, [34:30] because you have to [34:31] sort of then pair it. [34:32] This is the thing [34:33] about Americans. [34:35] The more they [34:37] get from the government, [34:39] right, [34:40] like the more [34:41] benefits there are, [34:42] the more restrictive [34:43] they get about [34:44] things like immigration. [34:45] So there will be [34:46] like interesting ways [34:47] that they [34:48] like navigate [34:49] this trade-off, [34:50] but you do hear [34:51] a lot of voters [34:52] on both sides [34:53] of the aisle [34:53] kind of do a, [34:55] and this is, [34:56] it tags into [34:57] the no foreign wars, [34:58] and even you see [34:59] El-Sayed doing this [35:00] with Israel, [35:01] is it's all like, [35:03] well, [35:03] we should take care [35:04] of people here first. [35:05] And that is [35:06] the America first [35:08] element that a lot [35:09] of voters heard [35:09] that they want. [35:10] They're like, [35:10] why aren't you, [35:11] stop sending money [35:12] over to this place [35:13] or to this place [35:14] and stop spending [35:15] it on this thing. [35:16] Spend it on us here. [35:17] Spend it on our [35:17] education system, [35:18] our health care system. [35:20] And I think [35:20] that is going to be, [35:22] I think you're going [35:22] to see candidates [35:23] playing to that desire [35:25] from both political parties. [35:27] Yeah. [35:28] All right. [35:29] Before I let you go, [35:30] we are heading [35:31] into this midterm [35:32] at a time [35:32] where the president [35:33] in unprecedented ways [35:35] continues to attack [35:36] the election system, [35:38] right? [35:38] And I mean, [35:39] this started with [35:39] the riot on the Capitol [35:40] in 2020. [35:41] This week, [35:42] the DOJ is in court [35:43] trying to stop California [35:44] from counting ballots. [35:45] They preemptively tried [35:46] to contest the outcome [35:47] of a Senate race [35:48] in Alaska [35:48] that hasn't happened yet. [35:50] There are concerns [35:51] about federal monitors, [35:53] about ICE agents, [35:55] you know, [35:55] all leading [35:57] through January 3rd, [35:58] like will the Republicans [35:59] in Congress [35:59] try to pull [36:00] some shenanigans [36:01] around not seating [36:02] a Democratic-led House [36:03] if Democrats take it. [36:05] I guess from where you said, [36:06] like, how concerned [36:07] are you [36:08] about how things [36:09] play out on Tuesday [36:10] and beyond [36:11] just from an election [36:11] security standpoint? [36:13] I mean, [36:14] I'm always concerned [36:15] because I don't think [36:17] that anybody should [36:18] pass this prologue here. [36:20] We know what Trump [36:21] is willing to do. [36:22] We know that he's, [36:23] we know that when [36:24] or if the 2026 election [36:28] goes overwhelmingly [36:30] for Democrats [36:31] that Donald Trump [36:31] is going to say [36:32] that it was stolen. [36:33] He's going to say [36:34] that it was rigged. [36:35] I mean, [36:35] he basically already is, [36:36] yeah. [36:36] Yeah, right? [36:37] Like, this is his, [36:38] this is his play. [36:39] I mean, [36:39] and look, [36:40] we saw Blanche [36:41] open the door, [36:41] Todd Blanche, [36:42] the head of the DOJ, [36:44] sort of say, [36:45] well, yes, [36:46] I will, of course, [36:47] have to consider [36:48] court cases [36:49] and Trump saying, [36:50] well, I'll accept [36:50] the results of the election [36:51] if it's fair. [36:52] You know, [36:53] there's, [36:53] this is not [36:54] a group of people [36:55] who is committed [36:57] to ensuring [36:58] that the Americans [36:59] trust their election process. [37:01] And that's the world [37:02] we live in now [37:03] and it is extremely [37:03] distressing and sad. [37:05] But I also think [37:06] in some ways [37:07] the shock of 2020 [37:08] of Trump denying [37:10] the election results, [37:11] like, subsequently [37:12] he's done that constantly. [37:13] I mean, [37:14] he goes around saying, [37:15] well, [37:15] if the election was fair, [37:16] I would have won California. [37:18] Well, no one thinks that. [37:19] And so I do think [37:20] the potency [37:21] of his rigged claims, [37:23] especially, [37:24] and again, [37:24] I will take you [37:25] to the place of [37:26] he is so much less popular [37:28] right now [37:29] and voters [37:31] are just much less inclined [37:33] to give him [37:33] the benefit of the doubt [37:34] on things [37:35] and he loses in court [37:37] on all of these. [37:38] Like, [37:38] there's almost never [37:39] do they win in court [37:40] on their election challenges [37:41] because they're specious [37:43] and not real. [37:46] Yeah. [37:46] So I think, [37:48] although, [37:49] I don't know, [37:49] this Alaska thing, [37:51] this Alaska thing [37:52] could end up being a problem [37:53] because there's new reporting [37:54] on this today. [37:55] It's too new [37:56] to comment on, [37:57] but it's not, [37:58] it does look like they're, [38:00] and this is why, [38:01] like, [38:01] if it's close, [38:02] so you could see a scenario [38:03] where it's actually [38:05] on a razor's edge. [38:07] Alaska is the deciding Senate race [38:09] and you're in a Florida, [38:11] you know, [38:12] 2004 situation [38:13] where everyone's going [38:14] to all the different places [38:15] in Alaska [38:16] to look for hanging chads [38:17] or whatever [38:17] or looking at ranked choice voting [38:19] and there's a bunch of lawsuits. [38:20] That's kind of [38:21] a worst case scenario. [38:22] My hope, [38:23] and this is why [38:24] everybody has to go vote, [38:26] is that [38:26] it's such a blowout, [38:28] it's such a thorough [38:29] repudiation of Trump. [38:30] They win so many states [38:32] that, like, [38:33] it's kind of not [38:34] worth them fighting [38:35] because it's been determined. [38:38] Yeah. [38:39] All right. [38:40] Well, [38:40] wherever you sit [38:41] on the political spectrum, [38:42] definitely vote. [38:43] Election's Tuesday. [38:45] And here in California, [38:46] I know a lot of [38:48] nonpartisan groups [38:49] are urging folks [38:50] to try to vote by Halloween, [38:51] so we're not counting ballots [38:53] up until Thanksgiving. [38:55] That would make me happy [38:56] as a reporter, [38:57] personally. [38:58] Sarah Longwell, [38:59] she is author of [39:00] How to Eat an Elephant, [39:01] One Voter at a Time [39:02] and host of [39:03] the Focus Group podcast. [39:05] Thank you so much. [39:06] Yeah, thanks for having me. [39:08] That is a wrap [39:09] for Political Breakdown. [39:10] We are a production [39:11] of KQED. [39:12] Our engineers, [39:13] Christopher Beale, [39:14] our producers, [39:14] Izzy Bloom, [39:15] and our video team [39:16] includes Derek Larto, [39:18] Kate Lipinski, [39:18] and Vivian Morales. [39:20] I'm Marisa Lagos. [39:21] See you next time. [39:22] We'll see you next time. [39:22] We'll see you next time. [39:23] We'll see you next time. [39:23] We'll see you next time. [39:24] We'll see you next time. [39:24] We'll see you next time. [39:25] We'll see you next time. [39:25] We'll see you next time. [39:25] We'll see you next time. [39:26] We'll see you next time. [39:27] We'll see you next time.