What California's Primary Results Actually Mean So Far — Political Breakdown

[0:00] When you're talking about people who are still Republican voters in a state like California, [0:03] it means they're pretty dedicated to their party. They're just not going to vote for somebody with [0:07] a D behind their name. And so I think that that is, he's going to have to sort of figure out [0:13] how to unlock that problem if he's going to advance. Or to Guy's point, if the atmosphere [0:19] changes, if it's more of a 2024 election as opposed to a 2022 election or a 2018 election, [0:25] maybe that's a more friendly territory for him. Hey, everyone from KQED in San Francisco, [0:30] this is Political Breakdown. I'm Marisa Lagos. And I'm Scott Schaefer. Today on the Breakdown, [0:34] Election Day has come and gone, but we're still waiting for results. Today, we'll talk about [0:39] what we know, what we're still waiting to find out, and what it all means for California Democrats [0:43] and Republicans moving forward. Joining us for their post-election hot takes, Melanie Mason, [0:49] California Bureau Chief and co-author of Politico's California Playbook and KQED Politics [0:54] correspondent Guy Marzardy. Hey, y'all. Hey. Hello. Hey, Mel. So let's start with the state [1:00] of affairs in this governor's race. We are taping midday on Thursday. There will be more results [1:05] later on, just to be radically transparent about that. But Mel, give us a sense of where [1:10] we are in that race. We're kind of in the same place where we were at the end of Tuesday night, [1:16] right? Which is that we've got the top two candidates are Steve Hilton, the Republican, [1:21] Javier Becerra, the Democrat. They kind of, throughout election night, sort of traded first [1:25] and second place. And Hilton has remained in first place, Becerra in second. And then we're [1:30] watching to see what is going to happen with Tom Steyer, who is stuck around, you know, 19%. [1:35] You know, as these new ballots come in, we're waiting to see if the likely very blue, very [1:41] progressive tilt of the ballots could rearrange the sort of configuration of the top three. But [1:46] we need those ballots to be counted before we, before we know. And Guy, remind us why it takes [1:51] so long or seems to take so long to count ballots in California. Simply put, because a lot of people [1:57] vote by mail, both in percentage terms. I mean, we're at a point in the last general election, [2:02] we had over 80% of people voted by mail and also just the raw number of ballots. There are millions [2:08] of millions of vote by mail ballots. And I think the simplest way to think about it is when you're [2:12] talking about vote by mail, all the security checks, the verification happens on the back [2:17] end. If you remember when we used to go in a polling place and vote, they check your name on [2:21] the list. That's that part. And then you're casting your ballot. It's reversed for vote by mail. You're [2:26] sending it in. And only then are all those signature checks and reviews happening. And so it does slow up [2:32] the process. And in large measure, the priority of both the Governor Gavin Newsom and the legislature has [2:38] been increased access and less priority on speeding up the count, right? The election workers we talk [2:44] to and registrar say, if we had more people, if we had more space, if we had more machines, [2:49] we could do this more quickly. They would need money for that. And just to be clear, [2:54] we always talk about California's top election official being the Secretary of State. But all [2:57] that counting, all that work you're describing happens at the local level, right? It does. And [3:01] there's great variance, as we've learned throughout the years, county by county on the efficiency [3:06] and the process of vote counting. And there's some, you know, wrinkles in here. Maurice and I reported [3:11] a story this week on kind of diving into the vote counting process in California and why we're left [3:15] with this lag. It really, the lag to me really is right now. It's not about, yes, ballots can arrive [3:21] up to a week after election day. It's really in these closely contested races where you're going from [3:26] Tuesday night, as Melanie said, not really learning anything Wednesday, in some cases, not learning [3:31] anything Thursday. There's some counties we won't hear from until Friday. It's this lag that's [3:35] happening right now. And as Maurice and I found, for some registrars, they've basically said, [3:41] we want to update en masse. We don't want to be kind of putting out trickling updates. We want to [3:45] give a big update. The result of that is you can often see these swings that some people feel like [3:50] is not a great way to be updating. And I think overall, it's opened the door for some bad faith [3:57] actors, namely President Donald Trump, to come in and say, well, this is evidence of cheating. You saw him, [4:04] you know, post last night, something to that effect, saying the Democrats are at it again. [4:09] You saw Ron DeSantis say something similar. And Newsom, for his part, I think has understood that [4:16] this is in some way a vulnerability, that this takes on national criticism, but hasn't really done [4:21] anything to change it. He's said faster. He hasn't put a bunch of money into registrars. And I think like [4:26] talking to David Becker, who we're actually going to have on the show next week, who's an election [4:30] security expert, there's also choices these registrars are making about not updating until [4:35] Thursday or Friday after the election. Apparently in Florida, there's a law that says you have to [4:40] send updates every like 45 minutes, even if there's nothing new in there. And so I think that's an [4:43] interesting conversation moving forward that like Democrats might need to have. But in defense of [4:49] pollsters, Melanie, the outcome so far in this governor's race is actually pretty close to what we [4:54] were seeing, I think, in a lot of the public polls towards the end of this race, even in some of the [4:59] internal polls that were leaking. So is there a world in which Tom Steyer, the progressive [5:04] Democratic billionaire could actually pull out a second place finish? I think it's going to be [5:11] very tough. I think it's going to be very tough. The what I think the Steyer camp is really clinging [5:17] to hope now is like, how big is the pool of uncounted ballots? And actually, that feeds also into [5:24] right and growing by by, you know, the minute, it actually feeds into another sort of conspiracy [5:30] theory that I've started to see online that I think is important also to address, which is that [5:34] people have noticed that the number of the estimated number of counted ballots has actually [5:38] decreased. It's gone from like 57% to 55. And people are like, what is going on? That's because [5:44] those estimates, particularly those that we saw on Tuesday night were in exactly that they were [5:49] guesses about what the universe was of ballots. But as people started mailing in their ballots that [5:54] and as they start arriving, oh, okay, it turns out that there's more and more people that actually [5:59] did cast a ballot. I think one of the things that's so interesting is I think that this election is [6:02] starting to surprise people with how many folks cast a ballot, especially since we've all been calling [6:07] this kind of a dud governor's race. It turns out it was, you know, engaging enough to get people [6:11] to vote. And Mel, are there any generalizations you can make about the nature of the votes that are left [6:18] out? Because, you know, many years ago, the first batch were always more conservative, older, [6:22] Republican. That's no longer true. But do we have any sense, given that how many people were holding [6:27] on to their ballots until the very end this time, what the mix could be or is likely to be? [6:32] Yeah, I think the assumption is, is that the mix is going to skew more Democratic. I mean, [6:36] that is something we've seen in the last couple of cycles, is that like the progressive voters are [6:40] usually kind of the very latest to return their ballots. But I think that that's even more so in this [6:45] cycle, because even your even your normie Dems, even you're like very, like high propensity, [6:50] regular voters who probably would have put their ballots in earlier. And, you know, once that mail [6:55] mail-in process or mail-in period started, they held on to it because they weren't quite sure who [7:00] they wanted to vote for. And so we knew as the sort of ballots were coming in over the course of the [7:05] last month, huh, they weren't seeing the same number of Democratic ballots early on. So I think that [7:10] there is an assumption that it's going to be very blue. And I think the question that Steyer is hoping is, [7:15] is it going to be very progressive since he was trying to tap into that lane? Are the voters that [7:19] he's trying to appeal to, those younger voters who, you know, maybe aren't turning their ballots until [7:24] the very last minute, are those going to be the ones that that bail him out? But remember, there's [7:28] also probably going to be Javier Becerra voters also in the mix. And Steve Hilton has maintained, [7:33] you know, a fairly steady pace in the ballots that have been counted so far. So that's going to be [7:38] the challenge Steyer faces. [7:39] Well, while we're dispelling myths here, Steve Hilton is in first place guy. This is [7:45] a Republican who ran with President Trump's endorsement. He also ran with like kind of [7:49] slate of candidates that he teamed up with for other constitutional offices, including [7:53] Superintendent Sonia Shaw, who's a kind of anti-trans school board activist from Chino Valley School [8:00] District. Gloria Romero, a former state senator who was a Democrat and now is a Republican. [8:06] I guess first, talk about for maybe our national audience, like there's really no chance of Hilton [8:13] running unless something or winning unless something extraordinary happened, though. [8:16] But do you think that his candidacy, assuming he makes it forward, the combination of these other [8:23] candidates gives any sort of bump to maybe, you know, congressional race Republicans running [8:28] down ballot? Or is this going to have any effect, essentially? [8:31] I mean, I think there you get into a debate that would be fascinating if you give Democrats [8:36] truth serum. Would they want two Democrats for governor in the general election? Because [8:41] you'd have to weigh like, yes, if Hilton is not there, is there some depressing effect on [8:46] Republicans versus everything that would come from having two Democrats? The spending. [8:50] The very expensive, messy family fight. [8:52] Yeah, the uncertainty on which way things would go from a policy perspective. The slate, you [8:57] know, you mentioned Hilton building a slate. That's cute, but it doesn't really mean anything. [9:01] Like, you know, in a lot of cases, these are just candidates that have been supported by [9:04] the Republican Party. I look at it as like, you know, the insurance commissioner race, where [9:08] right now you have two Democrats in there. That's it. I mean, to me, that's a question of Republicans [9:13] not really getting a signal on who they're supposed to support. Stacey Korsgodden, who was the party [9:19] candidate and I think is in Hilton's, you know, whatever team he has going on. She's in third [9:25] place. So to me, that's like where Republicans are getting their signals. If it's not coming [9:30] from Trump, it can be hard for them to decipher. And we're seeing this in the Kevin Kiley Congressional [9:35] District. OK, where do we go with our votes? And Mel, you know, Becerra waged like one of [9:40] the great comebacks of all time, largely because Swalwell dropped out. And, you know, they threw [9:45] everything at him, especially Tom Steyer, and it didn't seem to suppress the vote too [9:49] much. But looking ahead, assuming he is in the top two, do you see any like potential [9:53] roadblocks for him, especially if, you know, Steyer, you know, was able to sneak in, but [9:57] even with Hilton? If it is a dem on dem, if Steyer is able to sneak in, then it is going [10:02] to just be more headaches. I think we're going to see more of the same. I think, I mean, I [10:05] agree with you, Scott, that the attacks that he saw weren't, wasn't enough to, you know, [10:10] knock Becerra off of his trajectory. But you throw limitless resources in a couple [10:16] more months to keep associating him with Chevron and other, you know, corporate donors. I mean, [10:20] maybe that will resonate. You know, one of the things we should keep in mind is that the [10:23] electorate in November is going to look different than the electorate in June. It's going to [10:27] be younger, it is going to be more diverse, and it is going to be more progressive. I mean, [10:30] that is kind of, you know, the anti-corporate money message. That's the sweet spot. And so maybe [10:35] that is a bigger problem for him if he has to go up against Steyer into the fall. You know, [10:41] I agree with Marisa. I think it is going to be very, very difficult for Steve Hilton or really any [10:46] Republican to win statewide. But Hilton is a, he's a good candidate, right? I mean, he is a, [10:53] he is very, he's very good, you know, speaking off the cuff. I mean, he was a Fox News personality, [10:59] like the guy talks for a living. And he has a compelling message in the sense that he's tapping [11:03] into people's frustrations with how the state is running. And he's sort of saying like, [11:06] maybe it's time for, for a change. Do I think in the context of what is likely to be like a [11:12] super partisan, probably very democratic friendly national landscape, will he be able to win on [11:19] that message? Probably not. But do I anticipate that there's going to be some awkward and uncomfortable [11:23] exchanges, perhaps on a debate stage with Javier Becerra, where Becerra has to sort of explain [11:28] how he views about the trajectory of the state? Like, yeah. And I think that maybe it's a, maybe [11:33] it's just like a moral victory for Hilton. But I can anticipate some like awkward viral video clips [11:38] perhaps circulating. So one of the other big stories of the night were these congressional races. This [11:43] is the first election we have post Prop 50. Those were the maps that were redrawn to essentially give [11:49] Democrats the potential to pick up five additional seats here in California. One of those seats is up [11:55] east of Sacramento, Congressional District 6 guy. This is held by Republican Representative Kevin [12:00] Kiley. Well, he was in Congress. Everything's been scrambled. He left the Republican Party to run in [12:08] this new district. I think hoping that, you know, if he got into a runoff with a Democrat, he could kind [12:13] of use that no party preference thing. We are now seeing him in the number one spot. And Michael [12:18] Stansfield, a GOP candidate in the number two spot. Richard Pan, Democrat, is trailing by a point. [12:25] Do you think it'll hold? And what does a Kylie-Pan matchup look like if Pan can squeeze this out? [12:32] Yeah. I mean, I think to start at the end, Kylie would still be an underdog in that matchup just on [12:38] the characteristics of the district. It's why he moved away from being a Republican. I think just [12:43] looking at how this district broke down in the last presidential election, we'll see. I mean, [12:49] you know, as more votes come in, if they're trending more Democratic, that would seem to be able to boost [12:54] Richard Pan. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Michael Stansfield is not running [12:59] an intricate vote curing operation. That would be my outlook. Maybe the local party is. And, you know, [13:05] I think this was one where we felt like on election night, did Kylie kind of draw a straight flush here [13:10] of triangulating this to run as an independent, have enough Democrats split up the vote? This is a [13:17] great. If you're a top two hater, this is like the poster child argument for this, where you have a [13:22] strong Democratic vote split between, you know, very well-qualified candidates. Kylie pulls off [13:29] this maneuver. And then Stansfield, who did not run a campaign period, ends up getting about a fifth [13:35] of the vote at least. Unintended consequences. Well, let's go down, Mel, to the Central Valley CD 22. [13:41] David Valadeo, the Republican incumbent there, has been giving Democrats heartburn for many years. [13:46] And now it looks like it's, you know, down to the two Democrats that we would expect for the number [13:51] two spot. You got progressive Randy Villegas from Tulare County, a political science professor. He's [13:56] leading moderate, Jasmid Baines, who was supported by the DCCC, the Democratic Party. What is your sense [14:03] of which of those two candidates would give Valadeo a tougher time come November? I mean, that's a good [14:08] question, because in some ways this is like two opposite theories of the case of what Democrats [14:12] have to do to appeal to voters that have drifted away from them. And so, you know, you have Jasmid [14:18] Baines, who is kind of your classic valley crack, right? I mean, she's a Democrat, but she also [14:22] takes centrist position. She has pushed back against Gavin Newsom on some of his, you know, [14:27] anti-oil industry policies, you know, really trying to sort of appeal to, you know, just not [14:32] particularly progressive Democrats. She wants to sort of run down the middle. Villegas has, [14:37] this is a very different theory, which is that he thinks that if he runs a more progressive [14:41] campaign and sort of speaks, I think, with more ambition about what the type of policies that he [14:47] wants to see, things like Medicare for all, that that will excite voters, maybe voters that didn't [14:52] feel a lot of pull to turn out in the first place. And, you know, this district is so maddening [14:58] for Democrats, because this should be theirs when you're looking at registration, right? This is a [15:02] Democratic advantage district. But for years, they have had trouble turning out their voters. [15:09] And to give him credit, David Valadeo has been has been very good at sort of maintaining the seat [15:14] and define political gravity. But basically, you have these two different candidates who have [15:18] very different ideas of what it would take to activate these Democratic voters that aren't [15:23] showing up and would would probably tip the seat into the blue. Yeah. So that's like we've been [15:28] talking about this a lot on this show. Like there is the sort of ideological split in the Democratic [15:32] Party, the theory of the case versus the progressives versus moderates. Then you have [15:37] the kind of generational change fights. And we saw institutionalists do really well. Brad Sherman [15:43] down in L.A., age 73, easily moved on. His Democratic opponent is trailing by like 20 points. Mike [15:51] Thompson up in Napa, Doris Matsui in Sacramento. All of them at least made the runoffs, although Matsui only got [15:58] about 31 percent of the vote. And she was challenged by a local city council member, Mai Vang, who got about [16:03] a quarter of the vote, could be in the runoff. Our producer Izzy Bloom talked to Mai. Let's hear what she said [16:09] about that. There's a lot of excitement in this region for for generational change. I know when I first [16:16] decided that I was going to that we were going to run, there was consultants and political establishment, people [16:22] who have done politics their entire lives that told us to wait our turn, told us to be OK with the leadership [16:28] we have right now. But if there's anything that I've learned from my years of activism and organizing, [16:33] it's that comfortable people, especially politicians, do not change unless we demand it. [16:39] They do not change unless we fight for it. So, Guy, I mean, that seems to be kind of like an argument [16:45] that even if she doesn't make the runoff, there was value in mounting these challenges. Yeah. And I gave [16:50] you the poster child of like the anti top two argument in the sixth district. Here's the pro top two [16:56] argument is in districts like this, where if you're talking about Mai Vang or Eric Jones, [17:00] they're dead in the water if the expectation is they have to knock out the incumbent in the primary, [17:06] if they have to both introduce themselves. I mean, she's been in politics for someone like Jones, [17:10] just new on the scene, even though he has money, introducing himself, knocking off an incumbent [17:15] in the primary versus, OK, you run your your primary campaign, you make the top two. Now you have a [17:23] one on one for months where you're actually able to make more of a case. Yeah. Well, [17:27] one thing that's clearly decided is that Matt Mahan, Katie Porter and Antonio Villaraigosa are not [17:32] going on to the second round here. Guy, what do you think is, you know, what do you see as being next [17:37] for them? Yeah, I mean, in the case of Mahan, I talked to him for a little bit yesterday. I think [17:43] Marisa has articulated this really well throughout the campaign. Mahan has argued, OK, I just didn't have [17:48] enough time. It's impossible to know. I mean, how long would it have needed to go? As Marisa's [17:54] argued, the issue environment did not line up for him. The campaign about anti-Trump and affordability [17:59] and not homelessness and public safety did not work out clearly in his favor. There's things he can still [18:05] take away from this. I think if you watched any of the debates in the forums, he's won the argument [18:10] on homelessness. All the people running against him were saying what I do is interim housing with a side [18:14] of prevention, which is basically what Mahan has done in San Jose. And I think, look, going forward, [18:20] someone I respect a lot in California politics opened my third eye with this. What about 2030? [18:26] You know, if things go left with Becerra or Steyer, Mahan's still going to be there. I see a pretty [18:31] easy re-election for him in 2028. I can't think of anyone in the city. I mean, maybe Betty Young. [18:38] I don't know if she'd give up her seat to challenge him. I don't see anyone else who can make a run [18:41] against them, so he'll get re-elected and then kind of remain as a thorn to whoever's in the [18:47] governor's office. I feel like he's the only one of the ones who lost, who really has a brighter [18:52] future as a result of having run. He gave up nothing. He gave up nothing. He didn't have to give up his seat. [18:56] Yeah, but he did well. Yeah, but the other thing, too, though, is that the tech connections. [19:01] Right. So I want to talk about that and have him react, because you asked him about this real huge flood [19:06] of tech money that he got largely from, as he points out, individual CEOs and others within the tech [19:12] community. And, you know, in a year when we're seeing a lot of backlash to tech and to wealth. So here's what [19:20] when you asked if it helped or hurt him when he said. So it really is a double-edged sword. I'm proud of being [19:26] from San Jose and representing the largest city in Silicon Valley. I'm proud of leading a city government [19:31] that is very innovative and incorporates new tools and new approaches. That doesn't mean that we're [19:37] not committed to holding big tech accountable for making people's lives better and not putting us at [19:43] risk or harming the environment. We're all about regulating tech in smart ways. But I think that [19:48] got a little bit lost in the media coverage. I mean, Mel, what do you think? As a Democrat, [19:52] especially, is there a world that someone like Mahan can really argue, oh, I'll take these guys' money [19:58] and then turn around and regulate them? Or do you think that that was kind of an albatross in this race [20:02] for him? [20:03] Well, look, Democratic politicians make that argument all the time when they take, you know, [20:07] any industry's money is like, you know, I'll take your money and then regulate. So, sure, he can make that [20:13] argument, too. I think that there would have to be some sort of proof point, either in, you know, less so in San [20:19] Jose or something that would show what he means by that. I think, look, tech has become kind of a [20:25] boogeyman among voters. And I think we've seen that in how when tech played really hard in their [20:30] races, they had a bad night. And so I do think that the association and look, Mahan had, you know, [20:37] a pretty weak showing that was without any of the attacks against him. He never rose to the level of [20:42] opponents needing to tee off on him. And if they wanted to, they could have because of these [20:47] donations. I mean, I've talked to people who said that they saw polling about what would be sort of the [20:52] devastating attacks on him and just pointing out these, you know, certain donors, linking them to [20:57] MAGA. It's just, it's brutal when you're trying to appeal to Democratic voters. And the truth is, [21:03] it's like, look, I think he thinks he has a lot of crossover appeal. And I'm sure that he does. I'm [21:07] sure Republicans were nodding along when he was talking on the debate stage. When you're talking [21:10] about people who are still Republican voters in a state like California, it means they're pretty [21:14] dedicated to their party. They're just not going to vote for somebody with a D behind their name. [21:18] And so I think that that is, he's going to have to sort of figure out how to unlock that problem if [21:25] he's going to advance. Or to Guy's point, if the atmosphere changes, if it's more of a 2024 election, [21:31] as opposed to a 2022 election or a 2018 election, maybe that's a more friendly territory for him. [21:37] And can I just say, Melanie's spot on. There's an argument that it's only going to get harder [21:43] to win an election as someone with ties to Silicon Valley. If we see this kind of AI fuel job loss, [21:49] people like Mahan and honestly, Gavin Newsom are going to need to be able to tell a story. They're [21:54] in the delivery room when all this stuff is coming on. They're going to need to be able to tell a [22:00] story about how either to regulate it or adapt to it or deal with it in the years to come. [22:04] It's also the concentration of wealth is also a big issue. Let's move down to LA. And the mayor's [22:10] race there is still a bit unsettled, although it looks like Karen Bass, the incumbent, very [22:14] embattled incumbent, Mel, is going to make it on to the final two in November. There was all this [22:20] talk about Spencer Pratt, this Republican, who's going to break everything down there. He's in [22:25] second, but he could still be overtaken, right, by Nithya Rahman, who's kind of on his heels right now. [22:31] Right. That's exactly right. I mean, in the same dynamics we were talking about in the governor's [22:34] race, I think it's even, think of that on sort of steroids in Los Angeles in particular. [22:39] So if you're looking at the breakdown right now, Pratt is closer to Karen Bass than Rahman [22:44] is close to him. But again, the assumption is, is that the ballots that are going to be [22:48] coming are going to be more skewed Democratic. I mean, we saw this in 2022 in the primary [22:54] when Karen Bass was running against Rick Caruso. She ended election night being down five points, [22:59] ended up being ahead by seven. I mean, that kind of swing is the type of thing that you see [23:03] with these late blue ballots. The thing that's complicating this for Rahman is that those blue [23:08] ballots can now go to two different places. Right. I mean, some of them are going to be [23:11] vast voters in addition to Rahman voters. So, you know, I think that people are absolutely [23:17] anticipating that she is going to gain on Pratt. I think the question is, will she have enough [23:22] of a, you know, getting the proportion she needs of the continuing vote drops to actually overtake [23:29] him? I'm not so sure. But meanwhile, I mean, like prepare yourselves for the like very chill [23:33] online discourse around Pratt to like really be nuanced and subtle and not jump to conclusions [23:39] at all. You know, it doesn't matter how many times we we can say we knew that this pattern [23:45] happens. This pattern has happened in the past. It's just like I scroll online and it's just it [23:50] breaks my journalist heart. It's like as many times as we can try to tell people in advance [23:54] and prepare them. They're just like out the window and like pure malarkey. [23:58] Hold on to your crystals. One thing I've been really curious about, Melanie, is like the salience [24:04] of the fire issue citywide. Like, you know, L.A. way more than me. What is like once you get out of [24:10] the Palisades, I actually saw a great the the channel's vote hub on Twitter. They're posting maps [24:16] and all these returns are early, but they had a precinct map of two precincts in the Palisades, [24:22] one that was heavily damaged by the fire, one that wasn't. And Pratt was running like 30 points [24:27] better in the fire damaged precinct. Like, how do you do you feel like this is there's resonance [24:32] throughout the city on that? Because I also wonder, like, if people actually know Pratt and [24:37] Palisades, do they like him? Do they hate him? You know, he's a pretty like controversial guy. [24:42] Even before this run, the fires were horrible. And the fires when you were like when we were living [24:47] through it, it was just like this like miserable, scary week where we I think felt all very vulnerable. [24:53] And then the truth is, is that for most of us that live in the city, we were able to move on. [24:58] And obviously, the people who lost their homes in Altadena or in Palisades, like this is a [25:02] devastating loss. But like for the rest of us who are, you know, like living our own lives and also [25:08] have you realize, you know, you remember that a lot of other things happened in the last year? [25:11] Like, I do think it's receded from people's consciousness. And I think that that's exactly [25:15] why Pratt, yes, he's gotten involved because of the fires. He said that that was the precipitating [25:19] event. But you hear him talk almost as much, if not more about homelessness, about public drug use, [25:25] because that is something that I do think that you see kind of more spread out around the city. [25:30] And so I do think that that's how he's trying to widen his geographic appeal. But I saw that that [25:35] map to guy and I thought it was terrific because it really also to me demonstrated the like racial [25:41] stratification of how these votes are coming in. And I think that we are seeing that Pratt's voters [25:46] tend to be predominantly white, predominantly on the west side, which is wealthier. But LA is a big, [25:52] diverse city. And so part of me wonders when we were talking so much about the Pratt discourse [25:56] and the run up to this, like, you know, were we were we not paying attention to where Latino voters [26:01] minds were or black voters minds were or others because it was just like very loud people online [26:06] getting short on time. But you know, the conventional wisdom is that LA is such an overwhelmingly [26:10] democratic city that Pratt would have had a very hard time winning. That said, he's such an [26:15] outside the box kind of a character who knows, who do you think would be a tougher opponent [26:20] for Karen Bass? [26:21] Oh, I think Nithya Raman would be a tougher opponent because I think there's so many. [26:26] Look, she's very unpopular as an incumbent. And so if you are a democratic voter and you're [26:30] unhappy with Karen Bass, it is much, much easier to vote for Nithya Raman, even though she has [26:34] her own kind of pros and cons as a candidate versus Spencer Pratt. I mean, I think that Spencer [26:38] Pratt, that really requires a lot of Democrats to make a leap, especially when the Karen Bass [26:43] strategy, if she runs against him, is to just link him to Donald Trump as much as she [26:47] can. And I think, again, in a super polarized, super nationalized November election, that's [26:52] going to be really hard for him. [26:53] All right. Mel's got the last word here. That gave us pause the other night when we were [26:57] thinking about it. Melanie Mason of Politico, Guy Marzerotti of KQED, thanks to you both [27:01] so much. [27:02] Thanks so much. [27:03] That's going to be a wrap for Thursday, June 4th. Political Breakdown is a production of [27:07] KQED. [27:08] Our engineer today is Christopher Beale. Our producer is Izzy Bloom. I'm Scott Schaefer. [27:11] Our video team includes Alex Tran, Jim McKee, Hazel Tesoro, Matt Morales, Jelar Zeta, and [27:18] Vivian Morales. [27:19] I'm Marisa Lagos. We'll see you next time.