How I Read the Stock Market in Real Time

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: so let's see if we look at micron it's hrh this is historical return histogram this is one of my old favorites and it basically just shows you the distribution of returns so this is daily for one year but if we do daily for five years we can see the uh distribution it's not exactly [00:00:21] Speaker 2: normal that you can see these pretty out of out of bounds i like that it says you know expectations [00:00:33] Speaker 1: for normal is zero let me see if i change that to let's see what do you expect here at 10 2.7 occurrences at one year you would expect 5.7 whereas at five years you would expect 2.7 something like that [00:00:53] Speaker 2: trying to get these bins right auto bins or should i do 100 bins no matter what so that would be 1.4 normal expectation for five year for six months i think that's about right so you can see as you as time gets shorter you get these really out of bounds and then over full history [00:01:37] Speaker 1: you have five occurrences that are five sigma you would expect zero really not normal this is the so-called qq [00:01:47] Speaker 2: just quantiles and you can even see the error bar there it's shaded it's a little hard to see some other uh things you can adjust here some other uh things you can adjust here markets opening up shortly [00:02:22] Speaker 1: you can change this to uh j and j you get markedly sort of different picture really fits [00:02:32] Speaker 2: and i can't even see these should probably make these a little easier to see there's really small bins it's interesting how far out of distribution some of these readings are [00:03:23] Speaker 1: markets opening moderna still rocking up two percent oracle up two momentum arvel taiwan semi or we've coming off a little bit met is now down apples now down maybe seeing um fade here big fade from this open see how hard it fades smh kind of falling off a cliff here [00:03:56] Speaker 2: see micron as well is microns holding up for now if uh sandisk [00:04:07] Speaker 1: also holding up actually rallying here a bit but amd processors dropping while memory rallies very interesting until kind of in the middle that looks like a fade here [00:04:23] Speaker 2: what's that [00:04:26] Speaker 1: nvidia's dropping according to keith your processors down memory up this is how we like to [00:04:36] Speaker 2: you've heard that song face down ass up this is how we like to you've heard it yeah um yeah everything's dropping why still up 60 bips use still up 1.4 so still very green [00:05:22] Speaker 1: smh up 2.5 percent that's the beta right there right what's smh beta 1.79 at least that's weekly over two years how about daily over one year it's closer to 2.4 which is exactly how much smh is up right now so there you go for beta the smh return is predicted 100 by the spy return [00:05:50] Speaker 2: really almost perfect prediction let's check it on the market here definitely seen a fade [00:05:57] Speaker 1: at a brief cessation but now back down and starting to look like we could fill this morning's gap up [00:06:08] Speaker 2: smh only up two percent micron up four nvidia holding on the green [00:06:28] Speaker 1: earning season is in full swing starting tomorrow let's look at our earnings calendar and go to l ecal here what do we get tomorrow tons of stuff [00:06:43] Speaker 2: tons of stuff netflix i don't i don't know a lot of these logos i don't like the logo thing i'd rather look at the table i can also sort by market cap which i really like i want to look at a small market caps for now that goes we got ge raytheon or rtx and abb and we get netflix intuitive [00:07:21] Speaker 1: we got essalor phil morris thermo lamb sap texas instruments [00:07:28] Speaker 2: all going this week isn't meta supposed to be going week two where's that next week those are this week [00:07:49] Speaker ?: you [00:07:49] Speaker 2: visa next tuesday followed by the gate that is this wednesday right so where did i miss it somebody about to get fired oh there it is meta [00:08:18] Speaker 1: 1.8 trillion and tesla 1.4 trillion right after the close i was about to fire somebody bro okay i just sort it to like the biggest market caps ge spacex spacex is tuesday [00:08:36] Speaker 2: after the close um [00:08:43] Speaker 1: meta and tesla wednesday lamb wednesday as well proctor exxon coke visa hsbc google [00:08:53] Speaker 2: is next wednesday here stare at the tape like this and just read it like well you don't even know what time in sales is right ea s yeah [00:09:11] Speaker 1: the key to doing tas is to filter yeah for for big trades but you can't filter effectively for you see what computer the trade yeah yeah yeah the problem is you if you want to filter for the biggest trades you're only going to see um block trades when you you know somebody could be trading a million shares but they're doing a hundred shares at a time [00:09:39] Speaker 2: or a thousand shares at a time there's a trade 17 000 shares core we've cross level four though [00:09:51] Speaker 1: level three there's level one level two level three level four never heard of it [00:09:58] Speaker 2: that when you see into their fall level fall that's when you see into their mind [00:10:06] Speaker 1: i can see you're thinking about this trade what's the deal with nvidia can i get a summary as to why people are bearish well there's always bulls and bears for every stock but in the case of nvidia it's a 5.2 trillion market cap so it's the biggest company in the world the bulls think ai is going to keep propelling the world as it has bears think that semiconductor cycles come to an end and we'll have enough compute the true answer we don't know that's what the market's for that i could easily see both sides of the story which is why this game is difficult yeah no time and sales is pretty useless i i would agree with that i think that it's useful if you're putting up a trade and you want to see it on the tape it's also useful if you see a trade on the tape and you see it advertised at a brokerage you can make a call and see where the trade is happening so you can look at the tape and if you see it crosses at jp morgan you can call jp morgan and say here jp morgan who made this trade and why now they can't tell you legally but they can kind of give you some insight into what kind of customer it was and if there's more trades like it behind it and that's called flow for anybody that doesn't know this stuff