GOP 'facing political extinction' this midterm elections: Political strategist

[0:00] So many critical races on the line. We are joined now by MSNOW senior White House reporter Vaughn [0:04] Hilliard. MSNOW national reporter David Noriega is live on the campaign trail in Alaska. MSNOW [0:10] political analyst and former Democratic senator from the great state of Montana, John Tester, [0:15] and Democratic strategist and communications director for Julian Castro's 2020 campaign, [0:19] Sawyer Hackett. It is good to see you all, especially you, Vaughn. Welcome back from [0:24] paternity leave. We are so happy to have you here. So they got three weeks to convince Americans [0:29] that a Republican led Senate is in their best interest. And that what we just heard, [0:34] that's Trump's big sell to voters. Well, look, most of the issues, right, [0:38] they haven't changed all that much. They've only gotten worse for Donald Trump over the course of [0:42] these last weeks. Alicia, if you look at global affairs and the extent to which the U.S. interventionism [0:48] at war, it's been on a downward trajectory and polling that has not been good for him on the [0:53] question of democracy. Not good for Donald Trump on the issue of the economy and the price of fuel [0:59] and groceries. Not good for Donald Trump on the questions of reproductive rights. Not good for [1:04] Donald Trump. When you go up and down the issues that voters consistently say is the most important [1:09] to them. Donald Trump hasn't been able to deliver much in the terms of progress. And so where you [1:15] see sort of Trump being Trump and, you know, trying to highlight the physique of the Senate candidate [1:20] in Ohio. Well, I think that that is part of what Donald Trump is trying to do is try to bring [1:26] out the induce the turnout of his most loyal supporters. Some folks that may overlook sometimes [1:31] some of the policy distinctions and take his word for it. Listen to the president just a few moments [1:35] ago as he was leaving the White House to talk about specifically the state of Ohio. Take a listen. [1:40] Not sure. Maybe we'll have that bite here in a moment. But the president, Alicia, he just was talking [1:54] about Ohio and John Husted, that Ohio Senate candidate there. And he was talking about the big [1:59] enthusiastic rallies that they are having. Well, there were thousands of folks that have seats [2:04] that were empty last night inside of that arena for that second Ohio rally in just the last week [2:09] for the president. And this is sort of the reality that he is going into some of these red areas [2:13] and folks are not turning out, which really hits at the heart of the concern. And when you look at [2:18] polling, Donald Trump here again, just in the last hour outside of the White House, suggested that [2:22] John Husted is up by nine points. But when you look at the polling, he and Sherrod Brown in that Ohio [2:27] Senate race, they're right now neck and neck. So again, for Donald Trump, the reality will be [2:32] clear in three weeks from now. But he's trying to paint a very different picture than what the [2:36] sentiment appears to be on the ground at this point. Senator, I want you to compare what we've [2:41] heard from the president, which sounds like something from America's Next Top Model, and compare it to [2:46] what Trump supporters outside the rally were talking about. Take a listen. It's going to be a tight race, [2:53] I believe, because a lot of people in Ohio are on the fence about things. I think a lot of it has [3:00] to do with the economy. And Ohio is definitely, and along with the United States, it's definitely [3:05] inflation is out of control. [3:07] Tell you the truth, it don't look good. We're in war in the Middle East, and it's still me sad that [3:15] I lose partners in war right now, as we did in the past. What did we gain out of war? Nothing. [3:23] Death, destruction, and frustration, and disappointments, and so many people is suffering from it. [3:31] So, Senator, two questions for you. One, did an American president while on the stump for you [3:36] ever talk about how handsome you are? And two, can you make an effective closing argument without [3:41] addressing those two things that we heard from voters, the economy and the war? [3:46] Yeah, I only wish the president would come and talk about how handsome I am. Of course, [3:50] it's so obvious that they don't need to, Alicia. The bottom line is that it's always about the [3:55] economy. And in this particular case, we've got a very unpopular war that is impacting our economy [4:00] in a very big, big way. Look, I don't know how Republicans can go out with a straight face and [4:04] tell the American people that things are better now than they were two years ago, because they [4:08] can't. The fact is, we've seen prices at the gas pump go through the roof, where grocery store [4:13] prices continue to rise, housing prices continue to rise. What they've done with health care, [4:18] I'm talking about the Republicans right now, what they've done with health care in this country [4:21] has been disastrous, especially for rural America. So it's going to be interesting to see [4:26] what the president says when he goes to Alaska, a very rural frontier state, when it comes to all [4:31] those things, because they're all on steroids up there. Fuel is incredibly high. Health care is hard [4:37] to get. Very, very expensive. Housing, the list goes on and on. [4:43] So, Sawyer, the image that was on the screen with the senator just a moment ago was the president [4:47] departing for Alaska. He clearly doesn't want to talk about the economy. He doesn't want to talk [4:52] about the war. So what he is doing instead is he is leaning very hard into scare tactics. Here is a [4:59] part of what he said in Ohio. They want to basically destroy our country, and that's what [5:04] they want to do. And if they get in, they will do that. They'll be able to do that. You know, if they [5:11] get in and you have a bad presidential election in the next, because we have some very good people, [5:16] but if you had a bad presidential or one of these lunatics got in, you will look at me right now [5:23] and you will say he's going to be the last Republican president in the history of our [5:30] country. I will be. I will be. [5:32] I've spent the better part of this morning, Sawyer, trying to riddle out what it was that [5:37] the president was saying there. I think this is this is the best I've got on the pitch, which is [5:42] if Democrats control the House and or the Senate and then a Democrat wins the presidency, [5:47] then America is never going to have another Republican president. Because why? Because [5:51] Democrats are going to deliver for the American people, because Democrats are going to expose the [5:55] corruption of this administration. Is this projection his intimating that Democrats are [6:00] going to block a fair and free election? Help me name the boogeyman that Trump is trying to use in [6:06] that speech. I wish I could. I mean, it sounds like he's, you know, teasing us with a good time [6:10] right there. I mean, I think this is what Donald Trump has had to resort to the state of the [6:14] Republican Party right now, where he's had to essentially beg, bribe and threaten, you know, [6:19] fear mongers, scare voters into showing up to vote for him as opposed to voting for these [6:23] Republican candidates, because those Republican candidates are not exciting voters right now. [6:28] And this is the you know, this is the state of the GOP. I mean, they're you know, we're 21 days [6:32] until an election. They're not just facing a tough a tough race. They're facing political extinction. [6:36] I mean, you have, you know, the Republican Party's pulling money out of Georgia and North Carolina [6:41] to invest in Kansas and South Carolina. The president is campaigning in Tennessee and Alabama [6:46] and Alaska. And they've sunk a quarter of a billion dollars into Iowa and Alaska and Texas. [6:52] You know, this is this is, I think, facing political extinction. This is a Republican [6:56] party in complete disarray. It is a president who's essentially, you know, taken the helm of [7:01] political messaging with 21 days until the midterms and used it to essentially beg, bribe and scare [7:06] voters into showing up at the polls. But I don't think it's actually going to work because voters [7:09] aren't showing up to vote for him. They're voting against him and for Democrats against these [7:14] Republican candidates. So I really don't think none of the any of these tactics are going to work [7:18] with voters, but just three weeks until until voting starts. [7:21] David Noriega, you are the one who is actually in beautiful Alaska where Dan Sullivan won his last [7:26] race by 13 points. Now he's essentially tied. Help us understand the political lay of the land right [7:31] now. Well, Alicia, the reason that the incumbent, Dan Sullivan, faces the very, very real possibility of an [7:40] upset from the Democrat, Maria Paltola, is because this state, like so much of the United States and [7:45] the way that it's experienced by ordinary Alaskans, is in something very much like a crisis. [7:50] Diesel prices are through the roof. People here rely on diesel because of the Iran war. [7:54] Gas prices are also through the roof. In fact, there's a serious gas crunch, a gas shortage in the [8:01] most populated area of the state. I spoke to the head of the gas utility here yesterday who told me that [8:06] he had to recently inform some of his biggest customers that they might go several days without [8:10] gas this winter, fully without gas. So if you're a business that requires heating, for example, to stay [8:16] open, that could lead to something as serious as having to shut down your business altogether. [8:20] This contributes to a larger feeling here, Alicia, that things just are not working, that things are [8:25] not going as they should, that a resource rich state, an oil and gas state like Alaska could be facing [8:31] not just these kinds of prices, but the possibility of a serious shortfall in supply is, again, [8:36] contributing to this idea that something needs to change. Now, that obviously doesn't mean that a lot [8:41] of people here are actually going to be willing to pull that lever for a Democrat. It's still a tall [8:45] ask, right? And generally, when you talk about energy, people here do, you know, probably rightly think [8:52] of the Republican Party as being more equipped to address the, you know, more equipped to, for example, [8:59] push for more oil exploration, more gas exploration, that kind of thing, even though Potola has been [9:03] very clear that she is very much pro oil and gas production as well. There's no real daylight between [9:07] here and Sullivan on that issue. But the larger point, Alicia, is that this is a situation in which [9:13] the Senate seat that should not be up for grabs from the Republican perspective is very much up for [9:18] grabs because people are not happy with the way that things are. And I think this state, arguably more [9:24] than any other, will give us in November a clear view of just how willing people are to walk away [9:32] from a Republican Party that they have voted for in past elections. Alicia. Yes, Senator, I want you to [9:37] pick up on that last point, especially as we learned this morning after Alaska, the president's going to [9:42] hold rallies in Arizona, in Georgia, in Florida, Kentucky, and your home state, Montana, where he won by [9:48] 19 points. Your take on that map, those choices? Well, I think it just speaks to how the economy is [9:56] not in good shape at all. And it's due to the president's policies. And here's the thing, [10:02] Congress hasn't done much this last 22 months. And they've basically rubber stamped the policies [10:10] that the president has. Now those folks are on the ballot. Now the folks can go and say, you know what, [10:15] we didn't like the tariffs, we're voting against you. We didn't like the war in Iran, we're going to [10:18] vote against you. You've done nothing to lower food prices, we're going to vote against you. [10:22] And quite frankly, the same thing on health care. And so, you know, it's a time for accountability. [10:28] That's what elections are about. The economy is not doing what it's supposed to do. He has not [10:34] lived up to any of the promises he made before he was elected president. And there's a price to be [10:39] paid for that. And that's accountability in our elections. And that's why I think Democrats are going [10:42] to do well. And then when Democrats win, we have to make sure that they lead and lower those costs, [10:47] because families, working families and small businesses and family farm and ranch agriculture [10:53] out there are hurting. Democrats have an opportunity here to really lead in a way that [10:57] makes sense for this country. Hey, it's Rachel. I am so glad to see you at the end of that clip, [11:02] because this is where I get to tell you about a new way to watch all our clips and all of our shows [11:07] and everything on MSNOW on your phone or your tablet or your laptop. You can watch things live [11:13] or recorded. Plus, you can ask me and all the other hosts and reporters questions in our weekly live [11:19] chats. You can go to ms.now slash membership or just click below. Thanks.