El-Sayed says Trump is ‘AFRAID’ to campaign in Michigan — All In with Chris Hayes Weekly Highlights

[0:00] Less than a month out for the midterms, Democrats are pretty keen on their chances to retake the [0:04] Senate, something that was essentially unthinkable just 12 months ago. But doing so just won't just [0:09] require flipping some key states, Maine, North Carolina, barring some very unforeseen events, [0:14] it will also likely require them to hold some seats they already control, specifically in New [0:18] Hampshire, Minnesota, and Michigan, all of which have been polling at least somewhat competitively, [0:23] all of which have an incumbent who is retiring or running for another office, all of which [0:27] Republican super PACs are pouring a ton of money into. To combat that spending disadvantage, [0:33] Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed is here in New York tonight. He's fundraising with [0:37] a bunch of prominent New York City Democrats, including Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez [0:41] and Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed joins me now. It's great to have you here in [0:45] studio. Honored to be here, Chris. You know, I want to I don't think it's there's nothing hypocritical [0:51] about saying we need to get money out of big money out of politics and then having to raise money. [0:54] It is what it is. But there is a tension there, right? Like explain to me how you are seeing the [1:01] campaign finance system up close in the most intense immediate daily way now and what it's [1:07] made you maybe realize about it. You know, every day I get an update on a signal chat about the [1:12] competitive, which is the term for the differential money being spent on their side versus ours. [1:17] And it's usually two to one. And that money comes from the likes of super PACs funded by Big Pharma, [1:23] Big Tech, our local utility DTE, Blue Cross Blue Shield. I don't take money from those corporations. [1:30] I have never solicited a corporate PAC check and I never will. Those PACs don't want to touch me [1:34] with a 10 foot pole because they understand that the minute I get to DC, I'm looking to regulate on [1:39] behalf of the people. So instead, you've got to go to everyday people and ask them hat in hand for [1:44] their money. You do that online and all those texts that you get and all the emails that you get, [1:48] but you also do that in person. Now, I would love to get to a world where we didn't have to [1:53] fundraise as much. I'd love to get to a world where people don't get those texts and people don't get [1:56] those emails and I don't have to spend time on the phone. And I mean, it's the number one complaint [2:00] I get from people. I'm sure you get it too. People come up to you like, yeah, they're like, bro, [2:03] you texted me yesterday. I'm like, but here's the thing about it. We've got to be able to get folks in [2:09] office who are dead set committed to changing the way that we finance campaigns. Now, the only way to do that [2:14] is don't get outspent two to one. And the kind of ads that they are running right now are heinous. [2:18] They're hideous. And they're appealing to an era of America that we all had wanted to believe we [2:24] were passed. And so what we're working to try to do is to support. Now, if folks out there would [2:29] like to support us, I hope that you will consider going to Abdul4Sender.com and donating five bucks or [2:33] 10 bucks. Right into the camera. You're practicing this. You said that some of the ads are running, [2:38] are heinous. You know, there's been a lot. It was very clear there was sort of a pivot and I think a [2:43] little bit of content analysis I've seen, which basically started at he's a he's a scary socialist [2:49] Marxist to he's a Muslim dude. And on that ladder thing, you know, there's something I think [2:55] interesting happening right now, which is prominent Democratic Muslim politicians in a way that just [3:01] did not exist. I mean, I remember when Brad Carson, Keith Ellison, who are both African-American [3:06] black men who are the only two Muslim members of Congress. There's more now. Right. You would be the [3:11] first U.S. senator. There's a lot of scaremongering about that. But there's a lot also that that strikes [3:16] me as kind of part of a longer story about how American pluralism works. And do you think about [3:22] your role in that sense? I don't spend as much time thinking about my role. Like I've been Abdul [3:26] my whole life. Like for a lot of people, like this is novel. I've been me my whole life. But I do think [3:32] about what it means about America. And now it's about my dad and my stepmom, Jackie, daughter of the [3:37] American Revolution from the middle of the state of Michigan. And I've always watched people come [3:40] together as part of my life. People talk about code switching. I've been code translating my entire [3:44] life. And there has always been this subtext of folks in America who want to make America small [3:50] like they are small. J.D. Vance, Donald Trump. But before them, there's a long history of folks [3:55] who've wanted to make America small. And they want to appeal to the differences to keep us from joining [4:00] together to get the things that we all need. I don't care who you are, how you pray, how you identify, [4:05] who you love. You need to have a job that pays you a good wage. You need to be able to afford your gas [4:12] and your groceries. You need to be able to see a doctor when you get sick. You want to send your [4:14] kid to a good school. And they know that the best way to keep us from being able to lock arms to get [4:20] those things is to distract us by the things that are different. But America's always had this one rare [4:27] gift that is like the best thing about what we can do. We always correct. It takes a long time. And some [4:33] of the problems we have not corrected, but we are in a constant battle of correcting. And that's [4:36] because people look at that and they say, no, no, we're going to choose the big America. And in these [4:42] elections, people are looking past my name and my faith. I don't want anybody to vote for me because [4:46] of my name and my faith. I want them to vote for me because I want you to have health care. I want you [4:52] to have a union. I want to stand up to the corporations who are nickel and diming you. I want you to know [4:57] that your politicians aren't bought by corporations that instead they work for you. That's why I'm asking for [5:02] every vote. And as much as they point to my name and my faith, I think there's an opportunity to [5:07] call to that big America. And the thing that gives me hope is that there are young people watching, [5:11] folks who are told, like I was told, that there's not a place for you here. And there's this amazing [5:17] thing about democracy, which is that you're asking your fellow Americans for their highest sake in that [5:22] democracy, which is their vote. And when they choose to elect somebody who has a name like mine or a faith [5:27] like mine to do the things we all want done, there is something about that act of making America [5:32] bigger. I'm so grateful to be a part of that. Donald Trump was asked today about his campaign [5:38] schedule. Now, largely, he's been going to red states, deep Oklahoma. I think he's in Nebraska. [5:44] Donald, come to Michigan. Please, I'm asking you, come to Michigan. All right. Clearly, [5:50] your candidate can't speak for himself. He doesn't have anything to say. Clearly, you are the answer. [5:54] And you should tell everybody why. They should imagine you on the ballot. So, Donald, [5:58] here is the gauntlet. Here's the challenge. I think you are too afraid to come to Michigan [6:02] because, you know, when I beat your candidate and you came, I'm actually beating you. So, [6:06] Donald, welcome to Michigan. I dare you to come. [6:10] Well, you answered my question, which is whether you would like him there. I think [6:12] Troy Jackson probably wants the same thing. He said he was going to go to Maine. Susan Collins [6:16] says, of course, she won't touch him. I mean, one of the reasons, I think there's a lot of reasons [6:19] the president is unpopular and almost radioactively so. But one pressing right now is the Iran war. [6:24] And I think it's also one of the places where there's the clearest, a lot of clear differences [6:29] between you and your opponent. But Mike Rogers, I think it's fair to say, has been in the New York [6:33] conservative wing of the Republican Party for a long time. He's been an advocate of the military [6:36] confrontation with Iran, defended it in the beginning, says now it's time to bring it to a [6:41] close. You know, Mike, and you've been on the other side of that. My question for you is, [6:46] bringing it to a close at this point means probably biting the bullet on some new equilibrium [6:52] that will see essentially diminished American power and influence the region, right? If you want to say, [6:58] look, this is a mistake, we got to get out. It also means biting the bullet on some terms of an [7:04] agreement with Iran that is probably maybe even worse than status quo. My question for you is, [7:08] are you OK with that? I believe in diplomacy. And I think diplomacy works over time. We are still the [7:13] richest, most powerful country in the world. We still have power, even if it's not just our guns. [7:18] So the idea that whatever deal you're going to get is fixed in time, that's just not true. [7:22] I think the thing that Donald Trump doesn't understand about America is that we are not just our army. [7:28] We are so much more than that. And that's the thing that President Obama did understand, [7:33] albeit much smarter, you know, far better at governing than Donald Trump was. But he understood [7:38] that. And he understood that he could work the diplomatic process to come to a place where we [7:43] had contained the risk without actually having to go to war and waste American blood and treasure. [7:50] I mean, we forget sometimes that there are 18 service people who were killed in this war. [7:54] And we're still at the war. And we're in a position right now where we don't control the [7:59] Strait of Hormuz, whatever the president wants to say. So my question is, how do we get to a point [8:03] where we're not doing that at the edge of a gun, where instead, just like President Obama did, [8:08] we're doing that through our diplomatic channels? Now, that's hard to do when you're Donald Trump and [8:12] you, you know, in effect ended any opportunity for diplomacy. But I do think that there's a way for [8:17] us to get where we want to go without consistently making war. And the reality of it right now is [8:22] we need relief for Michiganders who can't afford their gas and their groceries. And a lot of folks [8:26] don't get it. But, you know, when you look at your groceries, that got there somehow. And what [8:30] Donald Trump doesn't want you to understand is that that truck there, buy a truck that takes diesel [8:35] and diesel as at an all time high. We are paying for it everywhere. And Michiganders need relief. [8:42] You did an interview with Fox today, if I'm not mistaken. One of the things I think has been [8:46] striking about your campaign that I've seen is you've been going everywhere. I mean, you're talking to [8:50] everyone. I just I wrote a book actually recently about sort of the attention economy and about [8:53] politics and about the very good book. Thank you very much. But but one of the things I said in [8:57] there was that, you know, I think it's been pretty important to do that. I want to play. I want to [9:01] play a little bit of Jesse Waters talking about you because I think no, because I think this is [9:06] actually part of why I think this is part of the reason that you do go to everywhere, because that's [9:10] what democracy is. Talk to a lot of people to take a listen. I actually like Abdul. I probably shouldn't [9:16] like him, but I do. I think he'd be a terrible senator and he's a little bit of a lunatic, [9:22] but at least he's not your typical stiff. Not quite an endorsement, but how intentional has [9:28] this been for you a strategy of the kind of go everywhere approach? Like, is that coming from [9:33] you? Is that coming from the people around you and why? So, Chris, I got out, spent 11 to one in [9:38] my primary. They spent 70 million dollars by they. I mean, all the corporate PACs, APAC, all of them. [9:43] They dumped huge amounts of money to beat me. So, if you can't buy attention, then you have to earn [9:49] attention, which means that you got to go everywhere and you got to talk to everybody [9:52] because they're going to try and define you in 30-second ads. Now, here's the thing about the [9:57] 30-second ads. What you trade off is quality of attention for control. And the problem I think [10:02] we've often had as a party is that we want control of the attention rather than volume of attention. [10:09] And when you know what you believe, then you're not afraid to go and have conversations with [10:15] folks. But when you're governing by talking point written for you by the people who give you the [10:19] money to buy the attention, and then you're hamstrung because you're trying to say different [10:23] things to different people, it makes it a lot harder to go out and have a conversation on Fox [10:27] News. [10:27] I mean, there's also, to be honest, I think there's a system versus talent issue too, [10:31] which is, you know, you're a football player, right? It's like there are certain offenses you can [10:35] run with certain quarterbacks and then there's system quarterbacks. And like, again, if you're doing it, [10:39] at scale, and you have a whole distribution of how talented political communicators are, [10:44] it's like you tend to go to the system and not recognize. Sometimes you've got to look at like, [10:49] well, what is this person good at? What is this candidate good at? And, you know, [10:53] how can we play to their strengths? [10:55] And the other thing I'll just say is that our system right now, it's focused on who can be [11:00] the most subservient to a corporation who's going to write the check to the super PAC to run the ads. [11:07] If that's what we want from our politicians, well, don't be surprised that we get what we get. [11:12] But, you know, for me, it's a matter of policy, to be quite frank. When you have a public consensus [11:18] that's over here on an issue, like the people want healthcare, and a bipartisan consensus that's [11:22] over here, meaning both Democrats and Republicans agree that we can't, the difference is usually [11:27] somebody's money. In the case of healthcare, it's big pharma money, it's now big tech money, [11:31] it's big hospital money, it's big insurance money. And that makes the difference. [11:34] And that's the fact that the politicians go to the corporations to get the money to run [11:40] the ads to try to get the votes. And I want us to have a democracy where when the public [11:45] believes something, the public gets politicians that want those things. [11:49] Last question for you, then I'll let you go. But there are also times, I mean, I generally [11:52] agree with that as an analysis, but it's also the case, and I've watched this many times in [11:55] my career covering politics, the public thinks they want something and they get it and they don't [11:59] like it. So like, and that can be the case too. Like it is the case that for instance, [12:04] some Medicare for all, let's say trifecta in 2028, and you're at the lead of writing that bill. [12:10] Now I would personally, my personal capacity, I would probably almost certainly support it. I think [12:14] it's the right policy. I also am under no illusions about the amount of backlash that it might cause [12:19] because sometimes people like a thing in the abstract and doing it, you know, makes it harder. [12:24] It's also sometimes a situation where, um, you do a thing and there's a backlash because again, [12:29] corporations spent a lot of money to astroturf a movement. I mean, you think about the backlash [12:33] of the ACA that was fully astroturfed. We could trace where the money came from. It came from all [12:37] the corporations that were going to be losers. People get afraid of change too. It's not totally. [12:41] And then look at how popular it is now. I think that's part of the exact same story in some ways. [12:46] And I think, I think we have to have the courage to go out and actually campaign on the things that we [12:51] want and talk about what we want. And this is the thing. I want to have a sustained conversation [12:56] with the public. That's my job. If the public elects me, my job is to go and say, Hey, you [13:00] elect me to do X. Here's what I'm doing about it. Here's how I want to do it. Here's what I'd like [13:04] to do. Here's what I'm doing now. Here's what it's going to do. Now let's tell me what you think. [13:08] Yeah. And I think there is people will trust when you are willing to be consistent and show up [13:14] consistently. You think about somebody like, like Bernie Sanders, he's been talking about Medicare for all [13:19] since before I was born. Right. And people understand that he is so serious about getting [13:26] you healthcare and they trust him on the subject. The problem that we often have in the way that we [13:30] do politics is politicians only really show up on election season. I'm not want to be that kind of [13:35] politician. I want to be around consistently to be listening, learning, and speaking about what it [13:40] is that we ought to do so that if things are not working, then we can pivot and adjust accordingly. [13:46] But part of the problem right now is also the way that our system works is we get these [13:50] huge pieces of omnibus legislation. And then we can't. And these tight windows where you get to [13:55] legislate. Exactly. Tiny windows because we're trying to do everything in one go. And then here's [13:58] the problem. We don't actually label what it is that we did. So people don't actually know what it [14:03] was. And then we have a hard time explaining to people what we did. Like what I'd like to do right [14:07] now, honestly, I think we need a poop lettuce elimination act. Why? Because people just struggled [14:14] with poop lettuce. Right. We should be solving problems in the time and the space in which the problem [14:19] occurred and then delivering solutions and then being able to show you had a problem. Here's what [14:24] we did. Here's what it how it fixed it. We don't think about legislating that way. And I would like [14:29] to move us in that situation, but it requires us to have a constant, persistent conversation with [14:34] the public. And it'd be fast. I'd also add the Senate, not a fast body, but maybe it could be [14:38] faster. Let's speed it up. Yeah. Good to have you. Thanks a lot. Good evening from New York. I'm Chris [14:44] Hayes. We're now 28 days from November 3rd. Exactly four weeks from today will be election day. [14:48] Donald Trump, who wants voters to act like he's on the ballot, is barnstorming deep red [14:53] states while inviting Iran to take out major cities and blue states. No, really, at least [14:58] that's how it sounded. The president's plan is to try to fire up Trump voters to save red [15:03] state senators in tight races. But because he is who he is, his appearances include, well, [15:08] truly deranged stuff like this on the rally stage. Remember, with the word just artificial, [15:15] it's a little bit high. It's a small price to pay for keeping the world safe, keeping our country [15:21] safe. They could take out a city. Let him take, let it, let him take out Los Angeles. Let him take [15:27] out San Diego. That's, this is a very small price to pay. And it's going to be over very soon. It's [15:34] essentially almost over with. And they might keep going a little long. You know, they always say [15:39] they have a big threshold for paying. They need it. Let me tell you. They can take out a city. Let [15:44] them take out Los Angeles. Crowd cheers. Let them take out San Diego. Crowd cheers. That is the [15:49] president of the United States and a cheering audience, which maybe could follow along with [15:52] his ramblings. Again, always that's a little difficult. He's never really acted like major [15:57] American citizens are actually part of the country. In fact, he sort of considers them quite explicitly [16:01] enemy territory. But appearing to wish mass death on them strikes me as far, far worse than [16:06] anything any socialist streamers have ever said. But again, this is the cost of doing business. If you're [16:11] going to make Trump your number one campaign surrogate, and of course, he's going to be [16:14] because Donald Trump is the Republican Party, the Republican Party is Donald Trump. For all [16:19] the Republican hopes that he could maybe help pull a guy like, for instance, Senator Pete Ricketts over [16:23] the finish line in a state like Nebraska, we're going to pull out today that shows that basically [16:27] dead heat. I think it is fair to say somewhat definitively that he's not helping Republicans [16:32] across the board, especially in frontline House races, which are getting less attention. There's [16:37] more of them. It's hard to keep track of. To take, for example, Republican Jim Desmond, who's [16:42] running to replace the retiring Republican Daryl Issa in California's redrawn 48th congressional [16:47] district. Now, that's San Diego, one of the major American cities Trump floated the idea of Iran [16:52] taking out. Desmond immediately had to come out and condemn the comments about the annihilation of his [16:57] potential constituents. Quote, I vehemently disagree with President Trump's comments. America must stand [17:03] up to Iran and defend our interests. The first responsibility of our commander in chief is to protect the [17:08] American people in our homeland. Adding, quote, no American city is expendable and no American family [17:15] should ever be treated as collateral damage. Well, I think we're all thought we were all on [17:19] consensus on that. This is a guy locked in a really tough race. Remember, Democrats fought the Republican [17:24] redistricting scheme that happened in other states, chiefly Texas, by gerrymandering a bunch of these [17:29] California districts. So the commander in chief joking about his voters getting killed is not doing [17:34] Jib Desmond any papers. And it's not just California either. Trump's comments are already hurting other [17:39] frontline Republicans all across the country. Just this morning, they came up in a debate in Michigan's [17:44] 7th district where freshman Republican Congressman Tom Barrett is trying to hold a swing state. [17:52] Tom, if you want to talk about radical foreign policy abuse, your president said just yesterday that it would [17:58] be acceptable for Los Angeles and San Diego to be obliterated, to be obliterated in a war. [18:05] I don't support that. Do you think that's acceptable? Nope. Okay. Will you condemn your [18:08] president for using such disrespectful, violent language? I just said I did. No, you didn't. You [18:16] said you don't support it, which again, just to be clear, I am glad that you don't support San Diego [18:21] or Los Angeles getting nuked by Iran. I thought that was goes without saying. Tom Barrett will not be the [18:27] last frontline Republican who'll be forced to answer the question of whether they support the idea of [18:31] Iran taking out a U.S. city. So thanks a lot, Mr. President. There are also going to be a ton of [18:36] debates in the coming days and weeks as we approach election today. Just tonight, in fact, there are [18:41] debates in a whole bunch of market races, the main Senate race, the gubernatorial races in Iowa, [18:47] Georgia and Michigan. Left and right, we're already seeing a lot of politicians distance themselves [18:52] from Trump, who is, it appears, getting less popular by the day. Even the very best polls for [18:57] him show his approval rating somewhere in the 30s. The worst have him below freezing, as we like to say. [19:02] As a result, Republicans are also starting to triage some of these frontline seats. We talked about the [19:07] Senate version of this yesterday. Today, Punchbowl News is reporting that the Republican super PAC is [19:12] pulling out of Nebraska's second congressional district, the so-called Blue Dot. It's been held by [19:18] Republican Don Bacon, who saw the writing of the wall, opted to retire. He's been one of those Republicans [19:22] who, like, occasionally criticized Donald Trump. Democrat Denise Powell is the clear favorite to replace him. [19:28] And it sounds like Republicans are basically just giving up the fight. They're also reportedly [19:32] mulling out of, pulling out of Iowa's second district, New Jersey's seventh. They were both [19:36] supposed to be very winnable races for Republicans. But now these frontline Republicans may be hung out [19:41] to dry. The road to the House majority runs through seats like this. And while Speaker of the House [19:46] Mike Johnson insists his party can hold the lower chamber, he's even talked about expanding the [19:49] majority. Again, anything is possible. I keep saying this every night. Who knows what polling error we [19:55] encounter? But what I will say is Republicans are not acting like they're winning now, in large part [20:01] because the guy who wants voters to pretend he's at the top of ticket is, you know, jeering about the [20:06] potential for nuclear war. Joining me now to discuss how all this plays out in races across the country [20:10] is MSNOW's Director of Elections Analytics, Kabir Khanna, and Hunter Woodall, who covers politics [20:15] for MSNOW. It's good to have you guys here. Nice to be with you. You know, obviously the Senate races get [20:20] more attention partly because I think they're easier to get your head around. There's fewer of them. [20:24] There's so many House seats. People, you know, know who Abdul Syed is, for instance, but they [20:29] don't necessarily know, like, Will Lawrence is running in that Wisconsin 7. So let's just sort [20:33] of start at the top line of this graph, which is like the generic ballot. Sure. How important is [20:39] that measure to you? What is the trend? It seems pretty clear to me, but I'm not that one. The other [20:43] one, the House control preference. It's a super important predictor of midterm performance. The generic [20:49] ballot is just nationally. Who do you want representing you in your district, a Democrat or Republican? [20:53] Our colleagues at 50 plus one estimate that on average, it's an eight point lead right now for [20:58] Democrats. I just want to say one thing, because you mentioned polling can be imperfect. It's not [21:03] just horse race polling, right? It's polling on which party do Americans affiliate with more? [21:08] Gallup just dropped some big data on that, showing a huge gap for Democrats, the longest in years. [21:13] It's special election over performances. It's primary turnout. All of these things are pointing to [21:18] an environment. Let's say it's about a D plus eight environment in the end that matches the 2018 blue [21:24] wave. It would be a nine point swing from the 2024 presidential election. How you can think of that [21:30] is if districts move roughly uniformly and swing that same amount, they won't be exact, but it's a good [21:35] rule of thumb. That means anything that's up to a Trump plus nine district is winnable. Now, of course, [21:41] there are idiosyncrasies. Different districts have different demographic profiles. Candidates have strengths [21:45] and weaknesses. Right. But that math would put Democrats in roughly the two thirties in terms [21:51] of the number of seats in the house they'd end up with, which is a sizable gain. That's a gain of [21:55] around 20 seats from where they are right now. And there's a wrinkle here, which I think is [21:58] interesting we should look at. So that chart that should the bar chart, which is the, it breaks down [22:04] the districts by the Trump margin. And what you'll see is like, it's a little misshapen, right? That [22:08] should be a normal distribution. It should be a bell curve, right? If you look in the middle of that [22:12] chart, what you see there is that bar is too short. And the reason is those are districts that are [22:17] basically Trump plus single digits, right? One to 10. And there's fewer of them than there should be [22:23] because of the gerrymanders. So much like a big bite out of that bar. And they put them, [22:28] you see the bar next to it, right? It's like a little misshapen. They basically, Republicans in [22:33] these state races, they bid a bunch of those seats and they put them in the 10 to 20. That's right. [22:39] But one of the things we're seeing is some of those, which should be, I mean, 10 to 20, [22:44] you should be pretty safe, even in a plus nine year. Tom, one of the things we're, Hunter, [22:49] one of the things we're seeing is that that has moved over and even that is being breached a little [22:54] bit. And that's exactly right, Chris. What's so odd here is there's so many Republicans who I think [23:00] came into the cycle thinking they'd be safe, they'd be okay. And that gerrymander in so many of these [23:04] states, this idea was we're going to, you know, Republicans are going to help you. You're not going to have to [23:08] worry as much. And I think back a lot to Texas 15. This was a reliably Republican seat. This is [23:14] Congressman Monica de la Cruz. Bobby Polito is a Democrat running in that district. That is a [23:19] large Trump district. Even though it got redrawn, it's still pretty Trump heavy. Bobby Polito is [23:25] really giving her a race there. And that's one of those ones where that's a Republican held seat. [23:29] Democrats win that. That's a big setback for Republicans heading into, you know, in November [23:33] and then heading into the new Congress. Donald Trump was only back in office for a few months when he [23:39] and the Republicans devised their big plan to win the midterm elections. It was a simple plan. [23:44] Let Trump take the wheel. Donald Trump, only he can fix it, right? He was going to save the party from [23:49] the normal midterm blowback by first ordering all the Republican states to gerrymander their house [23:56] districts. Now, this had never been done before, except for once in Texas under Karl Rove and George [24:00] W. Bush, who, well, so the idea was just, you know, if you can control it, there's no law against it. [24:05] Just go put more seats out of reach before the voting even starts. Don't wait for the voters to [24:09] weigh in. Just move them around the board. The vanguard of this movement, the state where Republicans [24:15] move the fastest to try to steal the most seats, was Texas. So that was phase one. The next phase of [24:21] the big plan was to let Trump come in and pick your candidates. Sure, there are Republican incumbents, [24:27] but did they have sufficient personal loyalty for Trump to endorse them? That was how Ken Paxton [24:32] became the Republican Senate candidate in Texas, a man with so many corruption issues and so widely [24:39] despised among people in his own party that Republicans impeached him as attorney general, a man so [24:45] disliked that Trump makes him the butt of jokes in rally speeches ostensibly there to support him. And so [24:53] now here we are. Republicans are panicking a bit. They're facing possible election wipeout in Texas, of all [24:59] places. I mean, think about the psychological import of Texas, okay? Texas is the crown jewel of the [25:07] party, of modern Republicanism. It is the second largest state in the country. It's worth 40 electoral [25:12] votes, right? So notching that in the red column is like a big part of how you become president as a [25:17] Republican. It's a state that has not elected a single Democrat for any office statewide in 32 years. [25:24] But something different is happening this time around. You're hearing more about it from more and more [25:29] Texas voters like this one who spoke to MSNOW last week. We are going to vote for James Tellarico. [25:38] Oh, interesting. We are voting blue because the current Republicans on the slate in Texas are not [25:44] desirable. I'm not going to vote Republican in this election. Wow. Is that the first time for you? [25:51] I don't know about the first time, probably all ballot, but certainly the first time that it's not a [25:58] shoe-in for the GOP in the red. Now, there was a third phase to the big Republican plan, which they [26:03] are trying to implement now. That's the money bomb phase, as billionaires and corporate interests and [26:09] Republican-aligned super PACs dropped cash on the rigs. Hundreds of millions, hundreds of millions [26:14] have been raised from these interests because John Roberts and the Supreme Court have destroyed [26:18] any campaign finance reform because Donald Trump is open for business. And you can just, like, [26:23] give his PAC a ton of money, and God knows what you'll get in response, right? [26:26] Much of the money right now pouring through those super PACs is dedicated to helping Ken [26:32] Paxton against his Senate opponent, Democrat James Tellarico. And here's the thing. As of now, [26:37] and again, we'll find out in four weeks, it doesn't look like it's working. In fact, [26:42] Republicans are pulling so poorly in the state, they may end up losing some of the five new seats [26:48] they had gerrymandered for themselves, a so-called dummymander. Sure enough, yesterday, [26:53] Congressman Tom Emmer, who's the House Republican whip, even told reporters there was no way [26:57] they would win all the seats that they had specifically engineered to win for Donald [27:04] Trump at his orders across the country, saying, quote, we're not going to win all 13 of those [27:08] redistricted seats. That's correct. We're not. Turns out election rigging is not an exact science, [27:14] more of an art. That new Texas map, the one that set off the counter effort in California, [27:18] and this kind of awful race to the bottom gerrymandering arms race of 2026, which is, [27:24] I think, bad for everyone, bad for American democracy. [27:26] It doesn't look right now like it's going to work out the way they hoped. They redistricted. [27:32] They spent a pile of money. So what else can Republicans do now with 27 days before the [27:37] midterms? Well, they do still have that one guy. Very big one, but they're all big. Everyone is big. [27:50] They're all sold out. Mr. President, why are you going to Texas so much? [27:54] We want to make sure that Ken Paxton wins. [27:57] That was Donald Trump today, just before he boarded a plane to save the day in the state that he's probably [28:01] meddled in the most between the gerrymander and the Paxton endorsement, the so-called midterm convention [28:06] in Dallas, which all the data we have suggests actually hurt Republican candidates. Ken Paxton [28:11] even seems to think so because he told people in private that was true, which speaks to the problem [28:17] here, right, is that Donald Trump is just incredibly unpopular right now. So it's not clear his presence [28:24] helps candidates. Take Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who is in the first tough reelection fight he's ever [28:31] had against Democratic State Representative Gina Hinoosa. He's outraised and outspending her by [28:37] like three to one, four to one. Now, Abbott has been a political juggernaut in the state of Texas. [28:43] This is the fourth time that he's been on the ballot. He's also been a MAGA stalwart. Remember, [28:48] when Trump said every Republican state needs to redistrict, Texas was the first one to jump at it. [28:54] And Abbott was the guy who spearheaded that effort, pushing it through both houses of the legislature. [28:59] And when it was all done, he put a distinctly Trumpian spin on it. [29:05] I'm about to sign the law that creates the one big, beautiful map that ensures [29:09] fair representation in the United States Congress for Texans. Texas is now more red in the United [29:21] States Congress. Well, A, useful to say what the point of it was, right? Make it more Republican. [29:28] But B, maybe not so fast. Right? Just signing the bill doesn't actually get people to vote. [29:35] So as Trump rallied the crowd in San Antonio tonight, Governor Abbott was obviously right [29:40] there with him, you would imagine, right? Well, no. Abbott told reporters, quote, [29:44] because of the schedule I run, I already have events like this scheduled that day. I will not [29:49] be able to make it. Which is just terrible luck for, well, Ken Paxton, who had to show up tonight. [29:56] He's Trump's guy. Trump made him the candidate. Trump talks about how, what a schlub he is every [30:01] chance he gets, how he doesn't look the way he looks, or the way he dresses, or even his voice. [30:06] But they're stuck with each other, the two of them. That's the brand now. Not even the sitting [30:12] Republican governor of Texas. The sitting Republican governor of Texas. A electoral colossus [30:17] running for his fourth term. Feel safe being seen with Donald Trump in Texas right now. In any other [30:25] world, it would go without saying that a sitting Republican president going to deep red Texas would [30:28] boost the party ticket. In this world tonight, no. Hecklers interrupted Donald Trump at least [30:34] seven times by our account. In Texas. A testament, I think, to how toxic he really is right now. [30:41] Alex Wagner is an MSNOW senior political analyst, the host of Crooked Media's Runaway Country podcast, [30:47] author of The Steel, Four Right-Wing Hardliners, One Republican Presidency, and The Raid in America's [30:51] Courts. Heather McGee is a longtime progressive strategist, author of the excellent book The Some of Us, [30:55] What Racism Costs Everyone and How We Can Prosper Together. And they both joined me now. [31:00] It's good to have you here. I feel after I do a monologue like this, we've all been here before. [31:05] I was in El Paso in 2018 in the beautiful minor league baseball stadium that Beto O'Rourke had [31:11] planned for the election night possible celebration. And, you know, he was he was polling competitively [31:18] in that race. He never pulled ahead, really. It didn't happen. He came within two points. It was [31:24] the best a Democrat had done in a while. So I'm tempering the expectations. But what do you think as you [31:30] see all of this happening in Texas about what what what's going on right now? [31:36] I think we always have to remember that ultimately polls don't vote. [31:41] Right. That they have worked very hard on the Republican side to try to make it harder for [31:47] people to actually vote, to mail in their ballots, to have the right ID, to go to a polling place. [31:52] They closed a bunch of polling places in Tarrant County. [31:54] Exactly right. So we have to remember that you've got to you've got to have that discount because [31:59] it's it's there's never been as demonstrably unfair an effort to make it hard for people to vote as [32:05] there is in this midterm election. So you have to say that. But also the product stinks. [32:11] Everybody knows it. Right. The product thinks everybody knows that people are very clear that [32:16] the Republicans care more about Donald Trump than they do about their voters and that Donald Trump cares [32:21] more about himself and his money than they do than he does about anything else. And of course, [32:26] another part of the story here is the Latino vote. The Latino vote was always going to be what was [32:30] going to change the demographics and therefore change the destiny of Texas. It never has. [32:35] Obviously, the fact that so many voted for Donald Trump in the last election was a huge surprise [32:39] to a lot of people. But the same issue that got him way more Latino votes than it should have [32:45] on everything else is now sinking him. Right. Half of the I think it's five million new voters [32:52] since the last midterm in the country are Latino voters. Democrats are rallying behind Michigan [32:58] Senate nominee Abdu El-Sayed. Later this month, he will campaign with former President Obama. [33:04] Today, he is with the governor, Gretchen Whitmer. But tonight, El-Sayed had the chance to introduce [33:08] himself to voters during his first debate with his opponent, Republican Mike Rogers. [33:12] What he's basically telling you is he will say anything to win. And by the way, [33:18] that's what his sister said to him. He would say anything he needed to get elected. [33:23] This is all the nonsense that he dribbles out there. [33:25] Mike, Mike, you done? You could have showed up to the last debate if you actually have things to say. [33:29] You could have showed up to the third debate that you turned down. [33:31] Let's be clear. So you've got a situation in which this guy personally invested in AI [33:35] doesn't want to talk about AI. Instead, he just wants to point to me. But remember what I told you [33:39] at the very outset, he wants to talk about himself. He wants to talk about me. [33:42] He doesn't want to talk about you. You who are worried about having a data center in your [33:47] backyard. You who are worried about AI taking your job. You who are worried about the doom of AI. [33:52] He does not want to talk about you because the policies being pressed are the ones from Donald [33:56] Trump and he will not stand up to Donald Trump. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, [34:00] an independent, endorsed Abdul El-Sayed in this Michigan Senate race. And he joins me now. [34:06] Senator, debating always strikes me as very difficult, honestly, even for someone like myself who [34:10] talked for a living, like to think I'm pretty quick on my feet, just because it's it. You know, [34:14] it's it's a different genre than like actual debate. It's it's you know, you're doing it for [34:19] you've got a bunch of different audiences. What do you think of how he did on tonight? [34:24] I think Abdul did great. And I feel sorry for Mike Rogers. How would you feel having to defend the most [34:33] dangerous, irresponsible president in the history of the United States, a president who at a time [34:40] when 60 percent of our people living paycheck to paycheck gave a trillion dollars in tax breaks to [34:47] the one percent and threw 15 million people off the health care they had, who started a war in Iran, [34:53] totally irresponsible, which is now driving up gas prices and grocery prices. Good luck to anybody [34:59] who wants to defend that record and who wants to have the Republicans continuing to control the [35:07] United States Senate so that we do not hold Trump accountable. Actually, you said something I want [35:15] to ask. I'm going to go back to Abdul Sayed, but you just talked about gas prices and something I've been [35:19] pretty focused on when I lived in in Rhode Island. Our house was heated in oil heat. It's a somewhat odd [35:26] quirk of the northeast of this country. Not a lot of other places eat their homes that way, but it ends [35:32] up being great. You have crazy exposure in your state, in Maine, in New Hampshire, crazy exposure [35:39] to gas prices. One thing to fill up a car. It's another an oil tank when it was $400 for a month. Now [35:46] it's $800. I'm just curious how much that's how present that is among the people you represent in Maine [35:52] where they're debating tonight as well. It's it is very real in Vermont, very real in Maine and [35:58] other northeast states, which is why, by the way, I've called for a significant increase in LIHEAP [36:04] funding, low income heating assistance program, which provides help to people who need to heat [36:09] their homes. But you're right. It's not only filling up at the gas tank. It is the cost of home heating [36:14] oil, which I think is a going to be a huge issue in certain states in this election. [36:20] Abdul El-Sayed is in the polling average ahead narrowly. It looks like it's it's going to be a [36:29] close race. This is something that AOC said. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, of course, friend of [36:35] yours and someone that you endorse, said about the stakes of the race, at least from sort of the [36:39] perspective, I think, of this kind of progressive lane of the Democratic Party. If Abdul can win in [36:44] Michigan, anyone can win anywhere. Do you agree with that? I do. You know, Michigan is a tough, [36:51] purple state and he is running, you know, not only against Elon Musk and Trump and all of the huge [36:59] amounts of money being spent against him. But let's be frank. Trump today just put out a racist [37:04] statement, you know, calling Abdul a terrorist, et cetera, et cetera. They're trying to foment [37:11] Islamophobia. And, you know, that's that's tough to deal with. But I honestly believe that as a [37:20] country, you know, way back in 1960, John F. Kennedy had to run against the fact that he was a Catholic. [37:28] But we overcame that. And Obama certainly had to run against the racism of him being a black. And I'm [37:34] confident that the people of Michigan are going to look at the issues, understand that Abdul is out [37:40] there fighting for working people, fighting for health care for all prepared to take on the billionaire [37:45] class. And he's going to win this despite the terrible racism that he is experiencing right now in that [37:51] state. Yeah, I'm not going to recite this entire post because honestly, it's it's so gross. But, you know, [37:57] he calls him he intentionally calls Mohammed, which is his middle name. He says he goes back to the days of [38:02] jihad. I mean, really, just genuinely pretty. It's disgusting. But when you Chris, when you are [38:10] intellectually bankrupt, when you are a failed president, when you have nothing to say to working [38:16] people, why the very rich are getting richer and you're getting poorer, can't afford housing, [38:21] can't afford health care, can't afford a tank of gas. What do you resort to? You resort to the same [38:26] old demagoguery that has gone on for God knows how long. And that is racism. And that's what a lot [38:33] of this campaign is about. And it really is un-American and it's disgraceful. Yeah. You know, [38:38] I was thinking about the old left slogan, socialism or barbarism, right, that you've got to give people [38:43] a sort of economic equality or you'll get. And it almost strikes me that they're running some version [38:48] of it where they're like, maybe if we give people enough barbarism, they'll vote for us over over this [38:54] guy. Look, people are hurting and they're angry. And what Trump and his friends are trying to do is [39:01] say, you know what the cause of your problem is? It's the undocumented. It's trans people. It's Muslims. [39:08] Ah, has nothing to do with the fact that we have more income and wealth inequality that we've ever had, [39:14] that the rich are getting richer, that they control the economy. They control the media. [39:18] And now, by the way, they are spending over a billion dollars on this particular campaign. [39:25] Musk and his friends spend all kinds of money to make sure Republicans retain control of the House [39:30] and Senate. I sometimes wonder if, you know, there are people amongst the wealthiest folks in this [39:37] country who take the Bernie Sanders critique as a kind of blueprint, because I think the very, [39:43] your vision of how the country works, right, which is, or has worked, right, which is [39:48] a relatively small people who are very wealthy working to essentially manipulate the mechanics [39:53] of American democracy, right, has become empirically truer in all the ways that we can measure, [39:59] particularly since campaign finance reform is basically destroyed by the Supreme Court. I mean, [40:04] the CNBC, you know, we've got mega donor contributions overwhelmingly behind Republicans in the 2026 [40:10] midterm election, 14 of the 20 largest donor groups exclusively or nearly exclusively backing GOP [40:17] candidates or outside groups, a CNBC analysis Federal Election Commission's record. We have never quite [40:22] seen a midterm like this with the amount of unregulated billionaire money flowing towards the Republican [40:28] side. Exactly. And by the way, that was an issue I don't think I got into in that debate. But here's a [40:36] simple reality. Elon Musk, the richest guy in the world, spent almost $300 million to help elect Trump [40:43] president, $290 million. And now he's going to spend $200 million to try to keep Republican control [40:50] over the House and the Senate and other Republican billionaires in command. Does anybody in their right [40:55] mind think that is democracy? That is oligarchy. And that is every reason in the world why you have to [41:02] make sure that Republicans do not continue to control the House and the Senate. [41:08] Senator Bernie Sanders in Vermont, where it's about to get cold and heating oil is about to be very [41:13] expensive, along with Maine next door. Thank you very much, Senator. [41:19] Thank you. [41:20] What's up, everybody? Good evening from Los Angeles. I'm Jacob Soberoff in for Chris Hayes. And we are [41:24] covering two big stories tonight, including Hurricane Isaias making its way up the Gulf Coast. We will have [41:30] much more on that in just a moment. But we begin tonight with the protests that are underway in New [41:36] York City after one of Donald Trump's unmarked ICE agents shot a man in the Bronx Thursday afternoon. [41:43] It happened on a crowded street full of kids leaving school. The agent fired at least seven [41:48] times into the man's car while his five-year-old son sat in the back seat. ICE claims the agents didn't [41:54] know that the man's son was in the car. Miraculously, the child survived unharmed. [42:00] The man, Oskar Bergal, was wounded. He was shot in the neck and he was detained. Officials say he [42:07] is an undocumented immigrant from the Dominican Republic who evaded detention last month. [42:13] They say that Bergal was shot because the agents feared for their lives and that his neck wound [42:18] is, quote, superficial. They haven't released any body camera footage from the incident. As always, [42:24] you can determine for yourself if you believe Donald Trump's Department of Homeland Security [42:29] to be credible or not. The NYPD did release their body cam footage, but they arrived after the [42:35] shooting where you can only see them rushing the man to the hospital. But Bergal's attorney says he [42:40] spent the night in a cell, not a hospital bed, despite still having a bullet inside his body. [42:46] Right now, we believe Bergal is being held in Brooklyn this afternoon. A federal judge ordered that he not [42:51] be removed from the country pending an appeal. Earlier today, the Homeland Security Secretary, [42:57] Mark Wayne Mullen, addressed the shooting, adding that they do not plan on pausing their enforcement [43:02] activities in New York. We go out for the worst, the worst every single day, every single day. Our goal [43:11] is to get them off the streets. If sanctuary politicians refuse to take care of their own [43:18] streets, President Trump has made it very clear we will. So if you enter this country legally, if you [43:24] commit a crime and you're illegal here, we are going to pursue you. We're going to hunt you down. [43:28] We will arrest you and we will send you back. That is the tone that Mark Wayne Mullen and his [43:38] predecessor, Kristi Noem, have been taking since Donald Trump's reign of mass deportations [43:42] started last year. And make no mistake about any of this, they have not slowed down. They just went [43:49] underground after two Americans were killed in cold blood by Donald Trump's agents in Minneapolis [43:55] earlier this year. In fact, in fact, there are some reports that deportation targets are actually up [44:00] since then. DHS is just not being so obvious about all of this now. The former so-called [44:07] Border Patrol commander at large, a made-up title, Greg Bovino, is not marching around in his weird [44:13] Nazi-like coat. No, Greg Bovino has retired to hang out with actual neo-Nazis. But as yesterday shows, [44:21] the reign of terror continues. And city leaders like New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani and congressional [44:27] nominee Daria Liza Avila Chevalier, who took to the streets with her future constituents and [44:32] actually got shoved to the ground by the NYPD, have a clear message for ICE. Get out of here. [44:41] This city wants ICE out. We want ICE out of our city, ICE out of our schools, ICE out of our hospitals, [44:49] ICE out of our streets, ICE away from our kids. We want that because we want to keep the city safe. [44:54] We do not need them to do so. All they do is terrorize the city. [44:58] This was entirely preventable because ICE should not even exist. There should not be an agency [45:04] that feels so emboldened to come into our city to enact that kind of violence. [45:09] We have a fascist in the White House who is doing this to make us feel powerless. But I want us to look [45:18] around and look at how many people came out for this community. That is how powerful this community is. [45:26] Because this community will always fight for itself. It will always fight for its neighbors. It will [45:32] always fight for the people who make this community what it is, because we are New Yorkers. [45:38] He messed with the wrong city. [45:42] Daria Liza Avila Chevalier will be joining me to talk about all of this in just a moment. [45:50] Zoran Mamdani says that he spoke to Donald Trump about ICE in New York. He demanded a pause [45:54] of ICE enforcement as well as the release of the man who was shot. But despite his apparently sunny [45:59] relationship with the commander in chief, both requests were very swiftly denied, which [46:04] might precipitate what long felt inevitable following Zoran Mamdani's election last year. [46:10] Some kind of standoff between New York City and the federal government over immigration. [46:14] It's actually something that I spoke to Zoran Mamdani about on the eve of his inauguration [46:18] late last year. [46:22] The reality is what I've seen in L.A. and what I saw in Chicago and what I saw in Charlotte and what I've [46:26] seen in the hallways of 26 Federal Plaza is likely coming to New York City. Do you believe that [46:31] type of enforcement, indiscriminate, rounding up of people? In some measure, it's already happening. [46:35] If it does happen here as the mayor, what are you going to do about it? [46:37] I'm going to continue to make clear that this is not something that we stand for as New Yorkers. [46:41] And this is not serving any of the interests that are being stated as the justification for them. [46:45] And as you've also said, there is an aspect of this that is already taking place right here in [46:50] the city. And it is important for each and every one of us to speak up because at the end of the [46:55] day, we're speaking about New Yorkers, the separation of New Yorkers from their families. [46:59] And we're in a city where more than 3 million New Yorkers are immigrants, myself as one of them. [47:03] Are you prepared to be arrested by the federal government if you stand up to their immigration [47:07] enforcement? [47:07] I'm prepared for any consequence that comes for standing up for New Yorkers because that's my [47:11] job. That's what I ran to do. And I think that it's time that New Yorkers look at City Hall [47:15] that's right here and see a reflection of their struggles as opposed to a reflection of the [47:20] scandal that has engulfed so much of our politics. [47:24] That was in December. Now this is happening. Tonight, as New Yorkers take to the streets in support of [47:30] their neighbors, that theory of the case outlined by the mayor and by his allies will be put to [47:35] the test. It is being put to the test. Josh Einiger is the senior reporter for MSNOW who has [47:40] been following the protest in New York all day. Josh, what have you seen tonight on the streets? [47:47] Well, Jacob, we're here in Foley Square here in lower Manhattan, which has always been a center [47:51] point of protest. And there were several hundred, well over a thousand people here earlier this evening. [47:56] And we could show you video as they were stepping off from here. They've been making their way through the city. [48:00] Right now, at last report, they were on the move through Greenwich Village a little bit more than [48:05] a mile away from here. But I did want to point out a few things. Reference after a career really of [48:15] covering the NYPD. I just want to point out a few things. One thing that Mark Wayne Mullen said today [48:20] was that this enforcement is out of some concern for the safety of the streets in cities like New York. [48:27] It was just this week that the NYPD released its crime stats for the first nine months of this year [48:33] and murders, shootings, shooting, the number of shooting victims is actually at an all-time low, [48:39] like since before they even kept records. So that's one data point here that I think is important to [48:45] point out. Another thing at that event, an ICE official made the statement that it was federal [48:51] agents who had rendered first aid and then transported the man they had shot to the hospital. [48:57] And it was a little while after that, that the NYPD, without a statement, without a word, [49:03] just released body-worn camera footage, which showed it was actually NYPD officers who had been [49:09] responding to a 911 report of shots fired. I mean, they didn't know this was happening, [49:14] who arrived, assessed the situation, and immediately scooped him up, threw him in the back of a police [49:19] car, and raced him to the hospital. So it was not federal officers who were getting him the medical [49:26] attention he needed. And then one final thing, Jacob, that I wanted to point out, you know, [49:31] the NYPD is always very careful, but every word they say. And in an officer-involved shooting, [49:36] they usually use the word suspect or subject when speaking of the person who has been shot [49:44] by an officer or a law enforcement agent. Last night, Police Commissioner Jessica Tish [49:49] referred to him as a victim. Jacob? [49:53] Josh Eininger, thank you so much for being there on the streets tonight and giving us the latest on [49:56] this awful shooting that has now galvanized so many people across New York. [50:01] Hey, it's Rachel. I am so glad to see you at the end of that clip, because this is where I get to [50:05] tell you about a new way to watch all our clips and all of our shows and everything on MSNOW on your [50:12] phone or your tablet or your laptop. You can watch things live or recorded. Plus, you can ask me and [50:18] all the other hosts and reporters questions in our weekly live chats. You can go to ms.now [50:23] slash membership or just click below. Thanks.