Days after Trump says 'we've won' the Iran war, a new Iran strike injures U.S. troops

[0:02] By now, anyone can write a Donald Trump speech. [0:04] Pick any topic, literally any topic, the border, [0:07] a budget bill, the ballroom, and add this. [0:11] Now we're winning too much. [0:14] And I say, no, no, no, you're going to win again. [0:17] You're going to win big. [0:19] You're going to win bigger than ever. [0:23] That is basically a Trump speech, except it doesn't work. [0:26] And it really doesn't work in war, [0:29] because here's Donald Trump claiming [0:31] that we've won the war in Iran. [0:34] We've won this. This war has been won. [0:38] That was Tuesday. At least he's predictable. [0:41] Trump claims we've won and also that he's negotiating with Iran [0:44] and also that he's pausing any actions [0:46] to facilitate negotiations [0:48] and also that Iran has been denying [0:50] that there are even negotiations [0:52] and mocking Trump with memes of fake text threads [0:55] in which Donald Trump is texting only with himself. [0:59] Trump is saying that we've won [1:00] because that's what he always says about everything. [1:02] If we've won, why is Trump sending more troops to the region? [1:06] Why is he raising [1:07] the army's enlistment age limit? [1:09] Why are the casualty numbers going up? [1:11] Trump says we could open the Strait of Hormuz [1:13] and restore the global oil flow at any time, [1:16] except it's not open. [1:18] And everyone can see that at their local gas station [1:20] because the prices keep going up. [1:21] $4 a gallon now. [1:23] That's the national average price, $5.70 in California. [1:27] The Guardian reports, quote, [1:29] the former head of Iran desk [1:30] at Israel's military intelligence, Danny Citrinowicz, [1:33] predicted that by the expiry of Trump's latest 10-day deadline, [1:38] the U.S. would not surrender, [1:40] would not accept the 15-point framework, [1:42] would not relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz, [1:45] and would continue attacks on Israel and the Gulf states. [1:48] After that, Trump will face a decisive choice, [1:50] a further escalation of tensions, a retreat, [1:53] or a push for a negotiated settlement [1:54] similar to the one that Iran offered in March. [1:58] The U.N. is not going to sanction the use of force [2:01] to reopen the Strait. [2:02] Europe will not participate, [2:04] and the G7 will not endorse it. [2:07] So what will America's self-styled, [2:09] winning president do then? [2:12] Trump lies like he breathes. [2:13] We all know that, but war is different. [2:16] And lies about war are different. [2:20] As the editorial board of the New York Times recently wrote, [2:22] lies about war also make it harder to achieve victory. [2:26] The more one spreads falsehoods, [2:28] the less one feels obliged to face reality. [2:30] In retrospect, Americans understand [2:33] that their leader's refusal to confront the truth in Iraq [2:36] and Vietnam led to strategic errors. [2:39] The pattern is repeating. [2:41] Before Mr. Trump began, [2:42] he brushed aside warnings from his top military advisers [2:46] that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz [2:48] to traffic it, to traffic that it does not approve. [2:52] The global economy is now dealing with the consequences [2:55] of his overconfidence. [2:56] And yet, he may yet learn a more personal lesson [2:59] about lying in war. [3:01] Lyndon Johnson and George W. Bush will forever be remembered [3:04] as having misled Americans about U.S. military action. [3:08] They learned that falsehoods can boomerang on them [3:13] and the leaders who take them. [3:13] And we've got breaking news this hour out of the Middle East. [3:17] MSNOW can report that a U.S. airbase has been hit [3:21] in an attack by Iranian ballistic missiles and drones. [3:24] That's according to a U.S. official. [3:26] According to an initial assessment, [3:28] roughly a dozen U.S. troops have been injured. [3:30] Aircraft were also damaged in the attack, [3:32] including at least two U.S. tankers. [3:35] Joining me now is Aaron David Miller, [3:36] senior fellow at the Carnegie Institute [3:38] for International Peace [3:39] and a former Arab-Israeli negotiator. [3:42] Aaron, good to see you again. [3:43] You know, a few months ago, you and I were saying, you know, [3:44] you and I were saying, somewhat hopefully, [3:46] that Donald Trump was able to stand up to Benjamin Netanyahu [3:50] and create a deal that may ultimately, not likely, [3:54] but may lead to some kind of settling of tensions [3:57] in the Middle East. [3:58] What happened? [3:59] How is this the same guy? [4:05] He's been the same guy, Ali. [4:07] I mean, he's a president whose priorities [4:09] are money, power, and glory. [4:12] And while Donald Trump didn't succumb to the temptations of Benjamin Netanyahu, [4:17] I mean, he's a president whose priorities are money, power, and glory. And while Donald Trump didn't succumb to the temptations of Benjamin Netanyahu, [4:18] I mean, he's a president whose priorities are money, power, and glory. And while Donald Trump didn't succumb to the temptations of Benjamin Netanyahu, [4:19] Prime Minister, I think, on this one was pushing on an open door. [4:24] Donald Trump wanted this. [4:26] He wanted to demonstrate American power [4:28] in the wake of the grab-and-go of Maduro. [4:32] He went to war based on false and unproven claims. [4:36] Iran was not within weeks of producing a nuclear weapon, [4:39] as the president said. [4:40] Iran did not have an intercontinental ballistic missile [4:43] capable of hitting the United States, [4:45] as the president said. [4:47] Iran was not about to preemptively strike. [4:49] Iran was not about to preemptively strike. [4:50] America, as the president said. [4:53] And now he has, a month into this war, [4:58] the assumptions on which it was based [5:00] are also proven to be false. [5:03] Number one, America has escalation and dominance, [5:07] and yet the Iranians have extraordinary capacity. [5:11] They're weaponizing geography, Ali. [5:13] They've identified the weak points. [5:16] And tonight was another tragedy. [5:18] Two servicemen, [5:19] seriously wounded, [5:21] and a number of others are very seriously wounded, [5:25] according to reports, [5:26] and a number of others seriously wounded. [5:28] The Iranians have capacity, number one. [5:30] And number two, so far, [5:32] and the headlines seem to be the trend line here, [5:34] the Iranian regime has essentially held together. [5:40] And far from fighting an Iranian, [5:41] Delcy Rodriguez, as my colleague, [5:44] Kareem Sajjafour, says, [5:46] he's encountered, Trump's encountered an Iranian, [5:49] Kim Jong-un. [5:50] And not just one Kim Jong-un. [5:52] It would be actually quite extraordinary, [5:55] and to America's benefit, [5:56] if there was a single, legitimate, [5:59] authorized Iranian decision-maker [6:01] that could essentially commit Iran to negotiations [6:05] or whatever the president wants to do. [6:06] But there's not. [6:08] So the president, a month in, finds himself in a box, [6:11] and I see no chance of a negotiated settlement, [6:15] which leaves the deployment of American combat forces, [6:19] somewhere around 10,000 by the time we're done. [6:22] And you don't deploy them, Ali, to bluff. [6:25] He's gonna use them. [6:27] Yeah, so you make an interesting point. [6:29] You said whether this leads to negotiations [6:32] or whatever it is the president wants. [6:34] What a weird situation to be in. [6:35] You've dealt with the Middle East for decades. [6:38] We've often not gotten it right, [6:40] probably gotten it wrong more than we've gotten it right. [6:42] But there was always some sense of a collective goal. [6:45] This is what's unclear in this war. [6:47] We're just not sure whose war it is, who wants it, [6:49] who benefits from it. [6:50] And what success actually looks like in this thing. [6:53] And we weren't done with negotiations with Iran. [6:55] We may not have been making massive strides, [6:57] but we weren't done yet. [6:59] Choosing to go to war over negotiations [7:01] is a big and important decision. [7:03] Agreed. [7:04] And in fact, the administration's wandered [7:06] all over the parking lot on this one. [7:09] I mean, a war of choice, this is the tragedy. [7:12] A war of choice, which was essentially a trilateral affair [7:16] among Israel, Iran, and the US, has now become, I'm afraid, [7:20] I'm afraid, a war of choice, which was essentially a trilateral affair among Israel, Iran, and the US, has now become, I'm afraid, [7:20] I'm afraid, a war of choice, which was essentially a trilateral affair among Israel, Iran, and the US, has now become, I'm afraid, [7:21] tragically, a war of necessity. [7:24] Because it is now a global international crisis. [7:27] And the key goal now is to open the straits. [7:30] And there are only two ways to do that. [7:33] Negotiate with the Iranians, [7:34] and I don't think Trump's prepared to pay their price, [7:38] or somehow change Iran's calculation. [7:41] Maybe the Iranians are delusional. [7:44] Trump wants to change their calculation [7:46] and basically convince them they're not winning, [7:49] that he's winning. [7:50] And that requires a demonstration. [7:51] And that requires a demonstration [7:53] of escalation and American power. [7:56] And it's going to require, [7:57] and this is where it all breaks down for me, [7:59] I don't know what the purpose and the mission [8:03] of just under 10,000 American forces are. [8:05] To do what? [8:06] Yeah, we could seize Karg Island. [8:09] You could blow it up. [8:10] You could seize any number of the smaller islands [8:14] that guard the entrance to the straits. [8:15] But then what? [8:16] I mean, they're 15, 20 miles off the coast of Iran, [8:20] a launch time with, [8:21] from a drone, from launch to impact, [8:25] where that distance is 20 to 30 seconds. [8:27] So he's about to put Americans, [8:29] as General McChrystal said, [8:32] you can't change your regime from 30,000 feet. [8:36] What he's doing now, [8:38] he's going to put Americans six feet away [8:42] from hostile forces. [8:44] And I'm afraid it's not going to end well. [8:47] Aaron, once again, I always say, [8:48] one day we'll talk about good things, [8:50] but I don't know if it's going to be in this life. [8:52] One day we will. [8:53] It's good to see you, my friend, as always. [8:54] Aaron David Miller.