Breakdown Ahead or 22,200 Support Hold? Stock Market Weekly Review — Alok Jain

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: hi folks welcome to the weekend investing stock market weekly review uh week ending 23rd of october somehow october is always a painful month and that's what's happening this month also there was a complete meltdown in the mid cap and small cap space uh this week also there is a special rebalance happening in many strategies so do always get uh fully updated about any changes that are happening in the portfolios do connect on the weekend investing whatsapp channel if you are not connected there drop us a mail and we'll help you connect there because when market is in such turbulence uh there will be mid-period uh exits etc which you don't want to miss so please do that and make sure that your portfolio remains updated from the research desk this week we had these four case studies and stories to share with you you can read them in the newsletter uh also in the in the blogs and the purpose of these uh pieces are basically to help you uh get more insights into investing and markets disclaimer as always please read fully and always remember if you've not done so far to subscribe to the channel so nifty has completely sort of made a mirror candle of negative 2.36 percent this week uh completely engulfing what was gained last week and while we are still not at 22 200 we're still at 22 600 but the potential that market will break down certainly exists so this support that you see here uh which had which had which the market had bounced off from next week if we break that support then that can be a bit uh uh you can say not so not so nice uh the other hand of course is that we don't we take the support at 22 200 and and just wobble around here for some time till the fed meets next week uh a lot of this is also happening due to the ai trade unwind and the almost conformity that the fed is going to increase the rates uh tuesday night india time and the market is preparing for that s p 500 also has come off a bit 0.47 although you know they have run up so much that these small modes is not really looking at that gold is also in a very perilous position right now it is at negative four percent we are at the supports of the past if this breaks down then we are certainly moving much lower uh this is a part of this consolidation that is happening i don't think the longer term trend is changing anytime soon uh so we will be spending more painful periods uh in this consolidation once the uh consolidation is over you will find that it starts to go so look at gold always as allocation i mean that's my view you can differ don't look at it as a trade the purpose of gold is to give you a hedge and a inflation and a political and a currency hedge just view it with that point of view that it is your ultimate insurance don't view it with a short term moves because you know it was when it was doing this it was not supposed to do it at that time because nothing you know of that nature was happening here and now it is doing this so people are questioning why gold is going down there is so much uncertainty so see over longer periods how the charts have moved and short term moves should not impact your view towards gold allocation that's my view usdinr is there brent oil has gone to 116 i mean i showed one monthly chart recently of crude oil which monthly spread out over 100 years and you know the chart is suggesting that oil is going to go through the roof that is a very uncomfortable thought because if oil goes through the roof i mean everybody gets screwed so and charts don't lie i mean unless you know somebody comes around and opens some amazing supply out of somewhere the only way this can stop is if if the war is signaled to to end that is also not happening so it's a very very tricky situation right now and this is causing huge inflation everywhere scarcity of course and the inflation is uh being met with higher yields the market itself is pricing at higher yield before even before the governments central banks raise the interest rates so this is becoming a very very tricky situation uh for which i don't know what is the answer maybe it is a sort of a period which we have to live through uh to see the other side uh nifty 500 and hengseng were the worst performing markets this week negative 4 brazil and russell 2000 along with australia managed a small gain of one and a half to two percent other markets are flat japan was down three percent france despite all the uh disturbance that they are having is down only two percent so we are getting hit quite badly actually global indices momentum score brazil is at the top surprise uh s p 500 and canada are next and we are again back to the lowest quadrant uh hengseng is below us if that is that is any consolation hengseng france india europe they are all at the bottom now in the benchmark indices overview this week was a disastrous week we lost seven percent on small cap 250 5.2 percent on mid cap 150 and most of it coming in the last two days uh nifty however has gone down only two percent so now if you see the one year move last one year is 12 percent down on nifty small caps mid caps down five and six percent last uh one month move is ten and a half percent down on small caps 9.6 on mid caps if it is down three percent now even the three year and five year have started to look bad uh nifty is up 4.96 cumulative returns in three years and it's 4.52 over five years so not a great place to be at but usually these numbers whenever they are there that you know five year cager has become so low that usually is somewhere near the bottom now whether this time it will be near the bottom or not uh can't say how much more time it may take but uh if the economy is growing and we have to believe those numbers also uh then this can't remain put here for too long within the sectors virtually no sector has performed this week worst performing is capital market defense mncs metals real estate the the potential of increasing uh interest rates are causing a havoc in interest rate sensitive stocks and that's why we are seeing this the sectors momentum uh score looks like pharma and it even though you know it is coming out of a big slump but suddenly now it is looking much better than a lot of other sectors it pharma psu banks they are at the top and public sector enterprise fmcg mnc stocks real estate stocks these are at the bottom in the weekly advanced decline stats it's a disastrous week 93 percent mid caps declining 92 small caps declining 94 micro caps declining i mean just a disaster week from a decline perspective only nifty has 78 declining which is also very bad performance of the week across different stock bands is just the worst you've seen in a long time performance over the last one month also is pretty disastrous reaching double digits in most slabs it's a basically complete washout when whether you look at one week one month three months and even six months on the market percentage of stocks which are outperforming benchmarks is less than 50 percent in all cases but when you look at my mid caps it is 40 cnx 500 is only 31 so very very few stocks are able to improve over the benchmark the brutal weakness where price is less than 25 dma less than 50 dma less than 200 dma is really really bad almost 40 percent of stocks have come into that category where you don't even want to try that from a trend perspective from a brutal weakness perspective virtually single digit low single digit stocks where you want to be and golden cross is still there in 40 to 50 percent but uh the numbers on the death cross is gradually increasing so right now uh things are not looking great um and even in the wicked investing portfolios gradually the universe which is investable is shrinking very fast i think if we have a couple of percentage uh fall in the next week also probably we will be going to high cash in most strategies that will be the capital protection mode we'll kick in some of it has already kicked in this week but by next week it will really uh get into a uh hyper mode uh going into cash a huge brutal weakness is getting very large a lot of these names are there in front of your screen which are from metals financials industrials fmcg and healthcare most of them and the trend check when we see our sectors uh especially the 50 dma so many sectors don't have any stock which is above 50 dma only iit has 80 percent stocks which are above 50 dma and when we look at 200 dma the entire market is only 26 percent so almost three-fourth of the market is below 200 dm when when i say market it means the top 500 stocks which constitutes most of the market cap of the market um so so the situation remains grim fii data i mean we've had some days of buying uh for a change but i mean that has not changed anything it's very minor gains of thousand crores on three days the flip side is actually uh you know more uh worrisome that the the buying of dies is reducing so we've had you know reduced reduction in buying in fact on one day there was even a selling from the dies on this front uh cumulative has flattened out for fis 30-day cumulative is at 87 000 crores negative while 30-day buying is nearly 1 lakh crore so that trend is good that the eyes continue to go up while the fires are flattened flat flattening uh insight of the week is about the usd inr so usd has strengthened from 97 to 94.4 is for fallen for straight eight sessions the longest uninterrupted streak in about five years but have we come to some kind of a floor on this and a upward journey may resume that is the question we need to ask ourselves uh with crude at 117 uh and rupee if it continues to strengthen that may be a good thing but if rupee starts to weaken then there can be a problem uh that's the end of today's uh weekly update thank you so much for thanks for watching uh let's hope we have a better week next one thanks bye