WARNING: Monday’s Market Opening might Shock You! — Stock Market Weekly Review — Alok Jain

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: hi folks welcome to the weekend investing stock market weekly review for the week ended 5th of june uh this week was a volatile week but as the week ended on friday night uh nasdaq has really uh got dumped more than four percent uh monday's opening is now very tentative although uh there were reports of the quarterly gdp coming better than expected this was a surprise but this dampener from the u.s markets uh is going to dampen those positive news but let's see where we go uh from our research desk this week we had these fantastic case studies and research pieces to share with you these are available in our description in the newsletter uh you can join the newsletter the link is there in the description a lot of content is there for you to enhance your knowledge on this channel disclaimer as always please read fully and only then move forward in the video to subscribe to our channel if you are a regular viewer so this week we had 0.77 down move in nifty uh not a big move last three or four weeks we have pretty much been within the 23 300 and 23 800 900 kind of a range uh the ceasefire issue continues there is no clarity on you know how and when that there will be a finality on that oil prices remain elevated um and market is sort of taking that in stride now uh there's no panic because of that uh rather there are some certain segments in the market which have been doing reasonably well in the last couple of weeks s&p 500 down 2.59 percent this week most of it coming on friday night so a lot of these semiconductor AI stocks getting hammered on friday night gold has also got hammered 4.67 percent this week so this is a big move big down move on gold and uh the 200 dma also has gotten broken on gold so gold's back is broken for now and it'll take time for it to consolidate and start a new leg so uh from that perspective uh the the uh usual scene of you know gold doing well in markets not performing well this time is not yet playing out perhaps we have uh you know discounted too much in this rally which was a magnificent rally we are still up 30 40 percent in the last one year but nevertheless it's a poor scene for gold right now macro pulse you can see dollar index is just remarkably very very strong 100.07 is where dollar index has ended yesterday 1.1 percent up india vix is falling usd inr is flattish at 95 brent oil is up from last week but you can see since june dollar index has stopped to fall so more and more money is flowing towards the us dollar the us yields are near five percent now and it makes no sense for global money to seek you know six or seven percent in india when dollar returns are at five and depreciation of the rupee is so high so basically it is flight to safety that is happening uh of course uh gradually the reserves of central banks are shifting but it's a very slow process and just this last week uh the news was there that uh the gold reserves have crossed the treasury reserves of uh central banks and hence the distribution is taking place in terms of governments moving gradually from the dollar reserves to gold reserves so what is also happening a very nice uh analysis was there from luke groman uh a macro analyst uh he suggested that you know the world is getting differentiated into two parts the the one is the reserve currency which is now becoming gold more and more so and one is the transactional currency which remains the usd so people will transact in us dollars but want to keep reserves in gold and hence both will coexist in terms of uh you know the asset classes that remain in the uh lag light in the global indices overview on dollar terms you can see massive fall in south korea which has been doing extremely well one year returns is 152 percent this week we saw 7.7 percent fall in south korea brazil is down five percent nasdaq is down 4.7 percent most of it on friday s&p 500 is there and you know while these numbers are very very small 0.7 percent but we are basically looking at very small gains uh on that maybe that is a mistake maybe 2.7 percent down and one month return is now minus 4.2 percent down japan is now at the top in global indices momentum so this is um amazing sort of a situation happening where japanese market has now you know superseded all other markets korean market has taken a step down after this week's returns dow and russell and asset simply are also in the top four five stock markets if he remains at the bottom hensing is also at the bottom australia and germany nifty are also very near the bottom uh nifty one week returns uh are small cap okay so let me just go back and check this chart so okay so this was indeed a positive 0.7 percent because uh the rupee has uh appreciated uh in in versus dollar enhancing dollar terms uh nifty has gained 0.7 percent however in rupee terms uh dollar is down 0.77 so overall mind moves this week i mean no major move as such between one and a half to plus 0.37 sector overview 6.7 on media primarily on back of z but all other sectors either flat or down you can see capital markets breaking down so this savvy dictat on uh bank guarantees for prop trading is causing some distress in most of the exchanges there is fear that the rule this rule which was to be implemented earlier which was uh deferred by a few months is now going to get implemented and that may cause a lot lack of and loss of volumes on exchanges so bsc mcx all were losing ground uh you also had fmcg stocks go down uh defense was marginally down autos marginally down banks were slightly up so not conclusive moves anywhere in this front metals defense and pharma remain the top three tier uh sectors and services real estate and it remain the bottom three on this front weekly advanced decline stats uh 82 percent stocks have declined this week on the nifty and still nifty declined only 0.7 percent so these 18 percent which are rising really rose well and they're better weights nifty next 50 also and across the board the predominant uh move was downward uh small caps were probably small caps and micro caps were better than large caps where fi selling is not there performance of last one week is pretty pretty red across different stock bands uh only uh some some market caps here were able to peak out is average on a green but otherwise in general the top was very heavy negative while the bottom part was slightly negative the three month picture still looks a little green and the performance over the last one year only the middle sort of mid caps and the bigger small caps have really done well over the last one percentage of stocks outperforming benchmarks uh you have very low figures in 20s and low 30s for most small cap is to 38 but this is quite poor in terms of uh only 26 percent uh nifty stocks outperforming the nifty only 30 percent of cnx 500 stocks outperforming the cnx 100 so very very poor outcome on this front in the strength and weakness analysis we can see uh golden cross is there on almost 40 plus percentage stocks across the board which is a decent figure it is not a great figure but it's a decent figure so so the structure of many of the stocks is still not too bad but that death cross is approximately 60 percent which is the mirror image of this but this is where things get interesting the brutal strength where price is greater than 25 dma greater than 50 dma which is greater than 200 dma which tells you that there is some continuity of the of the uh uptrend in these stocks so 14 of nifty 24 percent of nifty next 50 about 20 on average stocks are in brutal strength and you need to be there in those stocks so of cnx 500 about 100 stocks are there in brutal strength so that's enough stocks to basically avoid the fall general falls in the market uh if you can identify them uh brutal weakness is lower uh you know approximately mid teens 10 to 15 percent and this is where you don't want to be there at all uh and some big names are there in that space and you can read those names here in the large cap space uh you know hdfc bank tcs so basically when you look at uh you know any trend analysis what it helps you the most is to it's to keep you away from stocks that are losing right now that is the biggest advantage so like we always say i mean if you are able to uh you know avoid losers uh that itself is your winning advantage so from that perspective i guess brutal weakness if you are able to remove from your portfolio or selection that's that's good enough actually percentage of stocks above 200 dma the overall market cx 500 itself is has only 42 percent stocks which is above 200 dma this is a poor sign actually so you can see that only 210 stocks uh basically satisfy this criteria out of 500. so almost 290 stocks are below 200 d that's that's a pretty bad market breadth actually and there are sectors like it fmcg financial services psu banks where only only a handful of stocks are above the 200 dma the biggest sort of chunks are in pharma metals and energy private banks this is where you may get some uh buy setups when you look at them now let's look at fii stats so fii's have been continuously selling uh three four thousand eight thousand crores of selling continuously in fii uh selling no change on that diis also was was caught selling on second of june eight thousand crores uh perhaps a big deal big transaction happened there but nevertheless they came back to buy inside for the next three sessions so now if we see the cumulative figure of the last month 87 000 crores has been sold by fii's and 98 000 crores have been bought by diis so the balance still is slightly positive towards diis but the market really wants this figure to flatten out it did flatten out a month and a half earlier but right now this slope of this curve is quite steep down so you can only hope that you know this will plateau out at some point and once you know like the markets have been roiled in the in the u.s markets perhaps uh you know a slight deflection of capital can happen uh from there and that's that's basically a hope that we can keep uh this is the insight of the week uh where you know you can there can be stocks which will not do anything for like 15 years uh virtually no return this is ge vernova and then you know from nowhere it went to 1300 percent uh in just less less than three years so you only need to catch some part of this rally and not sit through this entire time waiting giving more opportunistic uh you know opportunities for your capital uh this can be a very you know frustrating wait even if you held through significant part of this as soon as you know some reasonable price will be achieved you will you will want to get up because the mental makeup is such by that time that this is not a stock worth sitting in and now i'm getting an opportunity uh so this is how you know the conventional way actually keeps people from bigger profits uh because first the stock frustrates you and then when it is actually starting on a huge bull run uh you are sort of wanting to get out by that so if you wish to take a uh advantage of such structured uh strategies you can look at uh momentum model portfolios there's a link in the description and you can go subscribe to them if you have any questions you can let us know and of course do subscribe to this channel do let us know what you liked about this data what you didn't like about this data what you would like to see more in this data and the idea here is that to give you a weekly overview so that you are with the market you know what's happening uh in the markets and you're ready for the next week thank you so much and i'll see you next week