Stocks Rising But Is The Pain Finally Over? Global Updates — Stock Market Weekly Review — Alok Jain

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: hi folks welcome to the weekend investing stock market weekly review for the week ended 10th of july a flip-flop week again the global markets dancing to the tunes of the u.s president who announced that the deal is no more and oil suddenly spiked up equity markets cracked very hard in asia equity markets were anyways falling very hard on the back of correction and semiconductor and ai stocks and this did not help but the next couple of days uh softened the stand and it seems the deal making is back on track so the markets are also gradually understanding that the u.s cannot afford uh higher interest rates the u.s cannot afford higher inflation itself so they cannot be going into a situation where uh oil spikes too hard as well i think what they're trying to do is to maintain oil above a certain level so that their shale oil uh remains viable and uh so they will continue to have probably some conflict somewhere uh to make that happen and other markets which are not so directly impacted uh probably are going to uh you know accept this as as uh normal going forward and that's what the market seems to be telling us especially the broader market uh where stocks were gaining this week from our research desk uh all these case studies and research pieces were shared on our blog and in the newsletter do go through them there's a lot of information and knowledge base that is already there uh so do do scroll through uh those stories as well disclaimer as always please read fully and then move forward in the video and do subscribe to our channel if you're a regular viewer so this week net net nifty was flat minus 0.26 percent you had s p 500 close very near the all-time highs at 1.23 percent and this uh basically correction that we had in s p 500 essentially if you just see the rally that they've had from nearly sixty three hundred to almost seventy six hundred within couple of months and that too when the war is on this is a very very mild correction and now it seems that they are on track for continuation so we may see uh you know very strong u.s rally here on as well gold is stable i wouldn't say uh it is uh it has bottom because it is too early to say that but it does seem like the uh the bears are taking some rest here and we are at some you know support point also this peak and this bottom is somewhere where we are so this 144.96 roughly about 1 lakh 45 000 mark uh is where it is sort of settling down right now macropulse uh usdinr was flat uh at 95 around brent oil uh went up to almost 80 and then closed at 17 six weeks is flatish and dollar index is again up at 101 so dollar index at 101 is not so good but it needs to cool off like last week it was down at 99 and a half and that was a decent place global indices in dollar terms compared across the world uh on a weekly basis germany had the most gains this week at 5.2 percent and there were some gains in uh foot c100 euro stocks and hang sang but no major sort of big move coming except germany and euro stocks nifty and nifty 500 completely flat nasdaq also gained slightly at plus 2.1 south korea continues to go down so in the last one month south korean market and hang sang are down 7.6 and 6.3 percent while india has gained 4.3 percent so there is a relatively a change in the movement uh that is happening um in the rest of the asian economies versus india now in the last one month or so japan also has been doing well at plus 2.5 percent for one month of course one year story is very very different where nifty is still sitting at minus 14.5 percent in dollar terms and japan is up at 57 percent uh no other market has performed like this in one year terms in three year terms uh nifty is flat at 2.4 percent other markets are in high double digits many of them uh and five-year returns we are at 3.8 percent which is very low now versus snp 500 at 11.5 uh nasdaq at 12 germany at 10 nikai at 11 uh korea at 12.9 percent so and only we are we are only beating hangs in china in the last five years in dollar terms so just imagine the chinese investors where real estate in the last 15 20 years no returns equity markets since 2008 no returns um you know their their only asset that is growing is gold um and then there are hardly any yields in in china as well so you know where does one invest so so from that perspective we have been reasonably well off in the last 15 20 years at least global and dyson momentum nikai is at the top but it's losing ground this week brazil is next uh then you have nasdaq and snp 500 these are the top four ranks south korea which was ruling number one you can see in the last one week and one month is that is the last ranker so that it has come down on the composite position uh and at the bottom we have uh france china nifty has moved up to minus four position um and nifty 500 is in fact doing even better it's right in here in the middle so i'm i'm reasonably hopeful that nifty and nifty 500 are going to come up over the next few weeks three and five years uh sorry one week returns on midcap is 1.23 percent small caps is 0.68 percent so they did not really go in the red despite the pressure from the overseas narrative others were completely completely flat within the sectoral overview also only real estate sector stood out um and you can say it stocks bounce two percent but other than that there was hardly any sector of any dimension in the last one month now real estate is up 17.5 percent pharma is up 14.4 percent these are the only two big notable sectors that have performed in the last one month it has gone down 11 percent and central public sector enterprise stocks also are down about 10 percent and here in the sectoral uh momentum uh scorecard we have capital markets metal pharma real estate these are the top four names defense has suddenly dropped energy also has been dropping down um and at the bottom you have fmcg it pscs and central psc so this public sector business that was doing really well is now sort of in danger uh already at the bottom uh and financial services and banks are also like in the second half not at the top so this is where you would want to look for opportunities or short term oops if i don't weekly decline advanced stats are somewhere reasonably down the middle nifty is less bullish 40 percent advances only 60 percent declines mid and small caps are more like even 50 50. uh cnx 500 is at 46 54 you can't make too much out of that performance of last one week is mixed and choppy some segments were in the green most were in mild red plus or minus one percent actually really does not make much sense but over a one month period most stock bands the market cap bands have done reasonably well over three months most are in double digits uh and the yearly is also starting to look good at least for mid and smart caps percentage of stocks which are outperforming benchmarks is very low less than 45 percent across the board mid caps is only 35 so that means that very few stocks are uh outperforming uh and that's creating the averages to go up so it is not across the board stocks that are doing well golden cross which is 50 days moving average greater than 200 day moving average is about at 50 mark which is reasonable i would say i mean it's not bad at all uh and brutal strength is increasing so you can see brutal strength which is priced greater than 25 greater than 50 greater than 200 dma so very consistent trending stocks uh nifty and nifty next 50 are still below 20 but mid cap small cap micro cap here we have some reasonably healthy numbers almost but from one fourth to one third of these spaces are doing reasonably well brutal strength means that you you know you can perhaps uh blindly buy these stocks of course with with the exit criteria and everything uh and the stocks that you absolutely want to stay away have now dropped to single digits at some places and you know low double digits at most places so the brutal weakness in large caps for instance uh are mostly in it as you can see here and some fmcg stocks i mean itc hindustan liver uh data motors private vehicle uh hdfc life mazdoc irfc candra bank and some it stocks uh these are where you know there's absolutely no upward momentum yeah and this does not say that these are not good stocks but this is not just the time to be in 200 uh day moving average 55 of stocks have now crossed 200 the moving average uh within the cnx 500 space this is reasonably good news and pharma real estate private banks have 80 to 90 stocks about 100 the moving average so this space is really as a group doing quite well and fmcg oil gas uh psu banks and it these are the ones that are really lacking far behind within the fi idea stats surprise surprise last five days we had only one day of selling that to only 500 crores so if you recall i've been saying for many weeks now that fi is selling seems to be uh weakening and that's exactly what we are seeing now that some buying is emerging from see when we talk about fis we tend to think of them as one group i mean they are not taking a group decision there are hundreds and thousands of fis and each are behaving differently uh it's only the collective number that we basically see this see here so collectively you know the net selling has gone to zero and there's some net buying domestic institutions one day of selling 383 crores that is minor but other than that they were buying reasonably well 2000 crores at least last couple of days so the fidi numbers have sort of turned and we'll see this in the cumulative you can see here since 11th of 12th of june the last 30-day cumulative selling has plateaued and it's now beginning to go up here so there is an upward trajectory here while dii investments have been going up so last 30 days fis have sold 13 000 crores but diis have bought 63 000 crores that delta has really gone up and that should do very well for the markets going forward insight of the week is from sumit behal sugi is down 58 percent since january 2025 if you invested one lakh in sugi 2025 your investment now will be about 42 000. mutual funds have also increased their ownership from seven percent to 25 percent using the same time to give a smooth exit to global pe and vc firm so this is the story of most ipo companies uh they come in at humongous valuations create a hype a lot of folks already are very uh aware of the brand and their brand lovers and they try to equate that you know if you're ordering from sugi and it is very efficient and very cost effective then sugi must be doing really well and hence quiet whatever is available in the market it doesn't work like that unfortunately the people who are selling in ipos are the big sharks of the markets and they're going to basically not leave anything for you on the table it's only a close ipo once all those people have sold off uh you know and and gullible investors have bought in will stocks stabilize at some point and then once it does start to go up that is the point where you would want to take very imposition if at all if you wish to follow some momentum model portfolios there's a link in the description you can go check them out and subscribe to it and thank you so much for watching this we'll do this every week we uh also do a daily uh bite video every day on youtube uh covering the market action for that day and this is a weekly update uh so do send us your feedback to join us do subscribe to our channel and I'll see you in the next one. Bye.