Are the polls accurate? 'They can't all be wrong': Texas Dem strategist

[0:00] The question now is, are the polls right? And if they are, what kind of impact should we be bracing for? [0:07] Joining us, MSNOW senior White House reporter Vaughn Hilliard still with us, senior advisor for the Lincoln Project and Mitt Romney's chief strategist for his 2012 presidential campaign, Stuart Stevens. [0:18] Executive editor at The Nation, John Nichols, and democratic strategist and senior advisor to the James Tallarico campaign, Chuck Rocha. [0:26] Chuck, I feel weird being in Texas and not sitting next to you, but I'll take what I can get. [0:32] Having you on a satellite is fine for me as well. Do you trust these poll numbers? [0:37] Look, they can't all be wrong. Let's call me the white whale hunter. [0:40] But I've been doing politics in Texas for 36 years and I've never seen a Democrat leading in the race. [0:46] And not only one poll, but the last 10 polls, it just shows you that something you got a lot of old veterans on this panel. [0:53] And they'll tell you that not every poll is right, but they can't all be wrong. [0:56] But the one most important thing that you're polling tells you is that people are pissed. [1:01] And I can confirm I'm working in five other congressional races in Texas, mainly in South Texas. [1:07] I can tell you that working class people, white, brown, black, they all have one thing in common. [1:12] They're a monolith for the first time ever and they're monolithically pissed. [1:16] I've said that over and over because I've never seen them this mad. [1:19] And it's not just diesel prices which make them mad. [1:22] It's not just gas prices which make them mad. [1:24] You had a great interview earlier with that woman holding that taco plate. [1:27] And I was watching her and I was like, you keep talking to her. [1:29] She wants to go eat them tacos. [1:30] I guarantee you they were twice as much as they were five years ago. [1:33] And everybody, and I'll end with this, asked me what's the difference between now and 2018 and the great Beto O'Rourke. [1:39] I'll remind all of you that when Beto ran gas was $2.18 a gallon and carne asada was half of what it was then. [1:46] And everybody was happy and COVID had not happened yet. [1:49] This is a different election and a different time and place. [1:51] Hey, listen, I drove by a gas station today. [1:55] It was $3.99, which if you live in Los Angeles is a steal. [1:59] $3.99 is not bad. [2:00] But for Texas, it is a lot of money and people are very upset about it. [2:05] I don't have a concrete answer again for you on how this state is going to vote. [2:08] But what I did keep hearing over and over again were from first time voters who were motivated this election to get out there and not just voters who just turned 18 or could vote for the first time in an election. [2:21] Voters who were into their late 20s or 30s who found this to be the moment to get out there and educate themselves. [2:29] They used that, educate themselves about who was running. [2:33] So, John, when you take us outside of Texas, you go to Ohio, you go to Iowa, you go to Nebraska, Alaska, all of these places that are currently showing Democrats either in the lead or very close. [2:47] Is it going to be those first time voters that change things or is it the voters who never truly Donald Trump voters to begin with who changed this election? [2:59] I think in a lot of the states you just mentioned, it will be the latter. [3:04] Actually, it's not the first time voters aren't going to be a significant part of it in Ohio and Iowa and other places. [3:09] But remember, those are older states. [3:11] I mean, if you're looking at Texas, you still have a tremendous amount of incoming there. [3:15] You have a younger population, same in a number of other states. [3:20] But what I'm seeing, especially in Ohio and Iowa, two of the states you mentioned, is that a lot of voters who, you know, not that long ago cast a ballot for Barack Obama and then definitely went over toward at least being sympathetic or open to the Republicans or too disappointed in the Democrats to participate. [3:41] You're seeing a lot of them come back when I watch Sherrod Brown go into those union halls in Ohio. [3:48] They're full. They're big crowds of people coming out. [3:52] And that hasn't always been the case for Ohio Democrats in recent years, even recent decades. [3:57] So I do think there's something going on. [3:59] I think there is a little bit of the, you know, kind of return to the Democratic fold. [4:04] And in this final two weeks, this final period here, I think what you're going to look for as regards your core question there is the amount of messaging and mobilization toward campuses. [4:16] And I think in many states that will make the difference between whether you get a Democratic win, which I think in a lot of these places is really possible, [4:25] and that sort of big Democratic win that goes down the ballot and has a more profound impact. [4:32] I am curious about turnout. I'm going to Dallas tonight to a James Tallarico rally. [4:36] I've been to Dallas a lot, either to chase tornadoes when I used to work at the Weather Channel or to go to Trump rallies. [4:43] And the Trump rallies were big back when I was following Donald Trump. [4:47] So I'm curious to see what Tallarico can turn out in that city. [4:50] I do want to inject some skepticism here, a healthy amount of skepticism as we're two weeks out, [4:55] because, again, the polls all are telling one story, but there is concern that the polls might not be telling the whole story, [5:02] that maybe Republicans aren't responding to polls like they used to. [5:08] Also, here's this from Patrick Ruffini, who is a founding partner at Echelon Insights. [5:13] He says he's skeptical when he moves, checks out polling in the Midwest. [5:19] There is historically, he says, been a pretty large polling error overstating Democrats' chances in states like Iowa, Ohio. [5:27] And I think you can extend that to Democratic enthusiasm around Kansas. [5:32] What say you, Stu? [5:34] Look, I think Patrick's very invested in the idea. [5:37] He wrote an interesting book about it, that the Republican Party had reinvented itself, [5:42] that there was a new paradigm elections that are happening. [5:45] I think that's utter nonsense. [5:47] The party is primarily a white, non-college-educated voter party. [5:53] It was in 20 when Donald Trump's coalition was 85 percent white. [5:59] Yeah, he did a little better in 24, it was 84 percent white in a country that's becoming a minority majority party. [6:05] So I think Patrick here is sort of invested in that idea. [6:08] I don't think that's what's playing out. [6:09] Look, I think the numbers that really matter here is, in that poll you showed, are the strongly approve and strongly disapprove. [6:19] And it really doesn't matter what party's in power. [6:22] If Republicans weren't in power now, people would be voting against Democrats because they're just voting against the status quo. [6:29] When you have that kind of divide between those who strongly approve and strongly disapprove, [6:34] that's what motivates people to get out. [6:36] So I think it's going to be a bad, bad day for Democrats because of that. [6:41] Let me show you where Donald Trump is traveling this week on Monday. [6:46] No, don't worry, we got you. [6:47] Monday he's going to go to Kansas, Tuesday, North Carolina, Wednesday, South Carolina, Thursday, Iowa, Friday, Florida, Saturday, Georgia, Sunday, Michigan. [6:57] There's been some talk about whether he's wanted up there in Michigan, whether that's going to help anything. [7:02] And I ask that because partially because is he popular enough, but partially because it's not quite clear what he's going up there to do, [7:10] what sort of message he's trying to deliver in any of these states. [7:14] Here he is on Saturday in Kentucky. [7:18] I examined his ass. [7:22] I never did that. [7:24] No, I never did that with a man before. [7:27] I examined his ass and then I looked at his shoulders. [7:31] I looked at his feet. [7:33] I looked at his hand. [7:35] I looked at his jawline. [7:36] So I'm not on the ballot, but I am on the ballot. [7:38] But actually, I am for a different reason, because if we don't win, this is the most important midterm in the history of our country. [7:46] This is a much more powerful term. [7:47] I can do stuff that's unbelievable. [7:51] I don't think I could do it. [7:58] We don't have the sound bite, but he also did something similar. [8:02] By the way, there was a second time he was talking about John Houston's derriere. [8:06] On Friday, he was in Dalton, Georgia, talking about Mike Collins, who was trailing significantly, John Ossoff. [8:13] He said, somebody said he's a good looking man. [8:15] I don't think he's a good looking man. [8:17] I actually think Mike Collins is a good looking man and he's all man. [8:22] And I actually think that Rick Jackson is a very handsome, distinguished, beautiful looking guy. [8:27] What's he doing, Vaughn? [8:29] Is this just a new laugh line, applause line? [8:33] What's happening? [8:33] I don't think you and I talk about men as much as Donald Trump talks about men, Katie. [8:39] Look, I mean, standing there at the rally and him talking about also applying makeup was really kind of this jarring moment because there was a president that is kind of glossed over, never wanted to talk about sort of his, you know, his makeup that he applies. [8:53] But then he went and admitted to the crowd that he does apply makeup to himself. [8:58] But then he's talking about the features of men almost sizing up what it takes to be masculine. [9:04] And in the in the case of John Ossoff, it's kind of a weird person to contrast him with. [9:09] He was depicting him as Pee Wee Herman. [9:10] And for anybody that has looked at John Ossoff and God bless Pee Wee Herman, but they're they're not quite equatable. [9:16] But I think that these are objectable statements. [9:18] I think I can say as a reporter. [9:20] But how about this, Katie? [9:21] Can I could I could I say this element of this is that I think what is so telling is that voters are so engaged on the policy parts of this. [9:33] The rest of the sideshow that has caused laughs at Trump rallies for the greater part of almost 11, 12 years now is just sort of a weird tangent because voters are repeatedly talking about issues that are having real life consequences in their life. [9:51] And the reason I say that, like, as you have experience in Texas and Chuck, I know from being on the road, knows this as well right now. [9:59] But like people are willingly talking about their political positions and their frustrations more than I have experienced at any point over the last dozen years. [10:09] I was talking with our colleague Alex Tabbit, who has been traveling the country in parking lots, talking to people. [10:14] And as they did with me in Georgia on Friday up in rural Republican Trump country, one person after the next was willingly talking on camera about their frustrations with the economy and with the war. [10:26] People that describe themselves as conservatives in ways that for years I've been trying to get people convinced them it's worth putting their face on camera and time and again, you know, maybe one out of eight people say yes. [10:37] But on Friday, one person after the next was talking to us. [10:40] And Alex is telling me the same thing. [10:42] And it's really striking because I think what Donald Trump is going on these tangents about the extent to which a man is masculine or not really runs counter to the conversations that voters are having outside of his campaign rallies on a daily basis. [10:56] Hey, it's Rachel. [10:57] I am so glad to see you at the end of that clip because this is where I get to tell you about a new way to watch all our clips and all of our shows and everything on MSNOW on your phone or your tablet or your laptop. [11:09] You can watch things live or recorded. [11:11] Plus, you can ask me and all the other hosts and reporters questions in our weekly live chats. [11:17] You can go to MS.NOW slash membership or just click below. [11:23] Thanks.