Who is Péter Magyar and why does his victory over Viktor Orban matter to Trump? — BBC News

[0:00] Viktor Orban is gone after 16 years as Hungary's prime minister. [0:05] And Asma, if you remember right at the beginning of this year, I picked [0:08] Peter Magyar as one of the people to watch for 2026. [0:11] Indeed. [0:11] I'm feeling pretty pleased with myself. [0:13] Peter Magyar is the new prime minister of Hungary. [0:16] He won in a landslide. [0:18] Now, Viktor Orban has been an extremely close partner to both Vladimir Putin and [0:22] Donald Trump, so much so that in that final week of campaigning in Hungary, [0:27] the American vice president J.D. Vance made an appearance. [0:30] Mr. President, you are on with about 5,000 Hungarian patriots, [0:34] and I think they love you even more than they love Viktor Orban. [0:38] Well, I can't guess that. [0:44] I'll tell you, he's a fantastic man. [0:46] We've had a tremendous relationship. [0:49] But Vance's endorsement wasn't enough to save Orban. [0:52] So a big question is, why did Hungary's election matter so much to the Trump administration? [0:58] And what does Viktor Orban's defeat mean now for the right worldwide? [1:03] From the BBC, I'm Tristan Redmond. [1:05] And I'm Asma Khalid. [1:07] And welcome to The Global Story on YouTube. [1:09] Before we dive in, we recorded this episode before Sunday's late result came in. [1:20] But it does answer all the big questions about how an election in a relatively small [1:26] European country has become such big international news. [1:30] This is my conversation with the BBC's Europe editor, Katja Adler. Enjoy. [1:35] First of all, Katja, we'd like to share with you a video [1:38] from mid-January Viktor Orban posted on X. [1:43] I'm going to show it to you. [1:43] Could you talk us through it, please? [1:46] Hi, this is Rob Schneider. [1:47] Dear France and Hungary. [1:48] So what we have here is Viktor Orban posting a video where you see the great and the good of [1:58] the right and far right, largely in Europe, but also beyond. We've got former Polish President [2:05] Morawiecki, known also to be very much on the right, sharing this idea of an anti-immigration stance, [2:13] a pro-Christian stance, very Eurosceptic. Alice Weidel here of the AFD, the far-right party of Germany. [2:21] Giorgio Meloni, Italy's Prime Minister. [2:24] We have a guest starring appearance of Javier Millet of Argentina, a real close [2:31] ally of Donald Trump's, for example. [2:34] Interestingly here, you also have Benjamin Netanyahu. [2:38] We even have Rob Schneider there. He is a U.S. comedian. [2:43] And all of these figures saying, vote for Viktor Orban. [2:47] He stands for the right values and he is absolutely necessary to lead Hungary. [2:52] So it's sort of support for Viktor Orban ahead of his election and trying to show that although [2:58] he has many opponents in Europe, within the European Union, this then was a video for him saying, [3:04] look, I have loads of friends, loads of supporters, leaders of political parties [3:09] and big figures in Europe and beyond. [3:12] Well, all of this was followed up by praise from the Trump administration. [3:16] Marco Rubio visited Hungary in February and he said, [3:19] President Trump is deeply committed to your success because your success is our success. [3:24] Then last month, President Trump himself appeared in a video [3:28] shown ahead of Orban's keynote speech at the CPAC Hungary conference, which is a kind of [3:35] conservative action committee conference, which happens regularly in Hungary. [3:40] I also want to send my best wishes to Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who I am endorsing, as you know. [3:46] I am endorsing his election, which is coming up pretty soon. [3:49] What does it mean that all these figures on the right are so explicitly endorsing Viktor Orban? [3:57] Why is it that they are all coming out in support of him? [4:00] So I think with Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, there was a particular message sent, [4:07] actually, because when did he go? [4:10] So Marco Rubio had just been to the Munich Security Conference and he gave a gentle-ish speech [4:17] to the Europeans there, but with a very clear message. [4:21] We see you as our allies, but only if you adhere to our value system. [4:26] Now, who adheres to the Trump value system? [4:29] Viktor Orban. [4:30] What are we talking about there? [4:32] Traditional family values, they would say. [4:35] Christian values. [4:36] So when they say his success, as in Viktor Orban's success at the ballot box will be our success, [4:43] that is seen as a success for their vision for Europe. [4:46] And it is a vision that Viktor Orban shares that in his 16 years in government, [4:51] but particularly in the last years, he has been outspoken about. [4:55] You know, it's also curbing woke expression, as they would see in society, you know, [5:01] getting control in academic institutions over NGOs and so on and so on and so on. [5:06] That is the Orban playbook. [5:08] And it is a playbook that he would say inspired Donald Trump in his reelection campaign. [5:15] And certainly Donald Trump mentioned Viktor Orban on that reelection campaign. [5:19] And you do have to think. [5:20] I mean, I remember thinking at the time, why are you mentioning Hungary? [5:23] I mean, Hungary is this tiny, tiny European country. [5:26] Even for so many Americans, they see you look at Europe as it's a tiny place made up of tiny [5:32] countries. [5:33] Well, even within the tiny countries, Hungary is a really, really small one. [5:36] And yet Viktor Orban punches above his weight on the world stage in the eyes of Donald Trump, [5:42] but also here in Europe. [5:43] And the reason you saw all of those right wing figures in his video is for the same reason. [5:48] Well, you mentioned the Orban playbook, Katja. [5:51] What are the elements of the Orban playbook which other leaders in Europe have adopted [5:59] or would like to adopt if they get into power? [6:02] He has large control, not total, large control over the media in Hungary. [6:08] He has clamped down on left leaning or woke, as he would see it, non-governmental organizations. [6:15] His, you could use the word cronies, it's a very loaded phrase. [6:19] But let's say people close to Orban have been given big positions in big state institutions, [6:24] whether it's in academia, whether it's in, you know, the largest energy group, MOL or MOL. [6:32] The judiciary, that's something that Brussels, that the European Union criticizes often about [6:37] Hungary and says it's not a free, open judiciary. [6:40] And so that's actually why the EU has held back funds from Hungary, that Hungary depends on, [6:47] since 2022, because it says that this is not a proper, open, free and fair democracy. [6:53] The rule of law is not here, but it is a playbook that parties on the, [6:58] to the right of the right across Europe think, you know, it makes sense to us. [7:03] It's still a democracy, still have freedom of speech. [7:06] We wouldn't be able to say, I mean, Orban says this, the fact that the opposition is doing so [7:10] well in the polls right now, about 10 points ahead of his party for these elections, [7:15] is proof that Hungary is still in a vibrant democracy, he would say. [7:19] So, but it is a playbook that others have mimicked and looked at, [7:23] and that Orban likes to say that Donald Trump also used part of his style and his aims, you know, [7:30] when he was looking for re-election now. [7:33] Can you talk us through what his relationship is with the EU leaders in Brussels? [7:39] He often turns up at these summits and there is a lot of butting of heads. [7:43] There is. His relationship with the EU is bad, and it's got worse over the years. [7:52] He will criticise Brussels, he will accuse Brussels as a shorthand for the EU, [7:57] of trying to hamper Hungarian sovereignty, of imposing wokeness on Hungary, [8:04] and acting against Hungary's interest in trying to get migrants to enter Hungary. [8:10] And what it means is that when the European Union tries to take collective action, [8:15] such as relocating migrants, Hungary is always right there amongst the countries that say, [8:21] no, we're not taking it. When it comes to Ukraine, he has blocked successive sanctions packages against [8:28] Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In the end, he has sort of given in over [8:34] that, but he is seen as a blocker. And most importantly, blocking this 90 billion or 100 billion [8:43] US dollar loan package for Ukraine. And people are outraged. They are sickened. So what have they done? [8:49] Well, Brussels says it's taken very strong action in that, as I say, it's withheld funds, funds that [8:57] Hungary relies on, agricultural funds and more, since 2022. Because when it comes to Russia, Ukraine, [9:05] there is a general acceptance amongst European Union countries that this is an existential war. [9:11] But the fact that Viktor Orban takes such a different position in this [9:15] is really detrimental to Hungary's relationship. But it's also hurting him now, Tristan and I would [9:22] argue, because of the lack of EU funds. That's part of the reason that we see Hungary's economy [9:28] doing really badly. Inflation is high. Voters are suffering. So it's kind of ricocheted against [9:34] Viktor Orban in the end. It was useful to be against Brussels. Right now, I'm not saying that [9:39] everybody in Hungary is pro-EU. That's not what I'm talking about. But not having access to those funds [9:44] is hurting. Orban's been around for a very long time. I mean, he's been a fixture on the political [9:48] scene in Hungary since the fall of the Iron Curtain in the late 80s. But here he is with a very credible [9:57] opponent in the election. When did you first come across this character, Peter Magyar? [10:03] Well, I think he generally rose to prominence with the 2024 European parliamentary elections. [10:11] And his party did very well in those elections. And again, using the shorthand for the EU, Brussels, [10:19] was cock a hoop. Because they thought, right here, there is a credible opposition to Viktor Orban. [10:25] Peter Magyar used to be in Viktor Orban's party. So we're not looking at a totally different [10:31] political frame of mind. He is in that big group inside the European Parliament, the Conservatives, [10:38] the EPP. But he probably fits very much to the right of that group. So we don't really know how much [10:45] his policies will differ once he's in government. Because if you have a look at how his party votes in [10:51] the European Parliament, when it comes to migration, when it comes to these hot button issues in Hungary, [10:58] they tend to vote with Viktor Orban's party. And otherwise, they'll often abstain. Might they be [11:03] different when they get into government? We don't know that. They promise at least on a foreign policy [11:08] point of view, and from Brussels point of view, to be interested in working with the European Union, [11:12] interested also in working with the United States, but not to change the policy towards Ukraine. So [11:18] what will that mean exactly? And definitely in Kyiv, if not in Brussels as well, people are kind of [11:24] wondering, okay, even if you move the blocker in chief, is this going to be a mini blocker? Or, [11:30] you know, who is Peter Maguire really going to be? It's also been a quite a spicy campaign. What [11:36] can you tell us about the spicy parts of it? So Peter Maguire, who's the leader of the opposition, [11:40] he said that there was possibly a sex tape out there. Now, Fidesz, the party of Viktor Orban, [11:48] said they didn't know anything about it. And we haven't seen this. I don't know if you've seen it, Tristan. [11:52] It has not appeared yet. It has not appeared. But that was brought up. But it's a pretty nasty [11:59] campaign as well. And Peter Maguire certainly made an accusation at a big rally that there were sort of [12:07] top Russian agents that were helping run the Orban campaign. And actually, I'd like to just pause there, [12:14] if you don't mind, Tristan, just to say it about something about Orban and Russia, because I think [12:20] this is key. He is seen as the closest to Russia. That is not what Hungarians would vote for. The way [12:25] he sells it at home is that it's a pragmatic relationship with Russia. Why would you have [12:31] a relationship? Well, because Russia is the place to get cheap energy from. And Hungarians would like [12:38] access to cheap energy because they'd like to pay less. So it's less I love Russia and more Russia [12:44] is a very useful partner for Hungary. It's in Hungary's national interest. Viktor Orban's also [12:50] painted Russia as a reliable partner, unlike Europe that has strings attached. He's not passionate about [12:57] Russia. He plays that very, very carefully. But his critics say he is in Russia's pocket. It's got to [13:04] that extent that we have certain meetings inside the EU where other countries will say, let's not [13:09] include the Hungarians because they're worried about about leakage. So that and all of this has [13:13] been refuted. So yeah, it's become quite nasty and personal. And yeah, and the the allegations of [13:20] this sex tape as well. So I would say that there is a case that the spicy sensationalist aspects of this [13:29] election campaign are actually germane to the coherence of the future of European politics. [13:36] Because these suggestions that Russia is now might be a player that interferes in elections, as some [13:42] people have suggested is the case in Hungary, is going to become a regular occurrence in European [13:49] politics. What would you say to that? But those allegations are nothing new, the idea of Russia [13:55] misinformation or disinformation. And sometimes there's been proof that's been kind of presented [14:03] by European governments. And in other cases, it's allegations made and assumptions made because the [14:10] way that Russia operates is plausible deniability. I don't think this is a big secret, or is it a scandalous [14:17] or an outrageous thing to say that Russia is involved in what we call hybrid warfare. And so that is not getting [14:24] the guns out. And it's not getting the tanks out. But it can be sabotage, subterfuge, espionage, or [14:32] disinformation, misinformation. So I think there is nothing new about that. Is it paranoia? Part of it [14:39] is paranoia. But paranoia, you could argue is a very useful weapon as well for Russia, if it wants to [14:45] destabilize, which it seems to want to, and reduce coherence amongst European Union countries. [14:52] Interestingly, critics of the Trump administration would say exactly the same thing, that China, [14:59] Washington under Donald Trump, and Russia seek to weaken ties between European countries, [15:07] because they're more easily easy to manipulate if they are separated rather than working as a [15:12] as a force together. What we do see with the Trump administration that you can point to directly [15:17] is direct interference in European politics. You quoted Donald Trump yourself, speaking out in [15:23] favour of Viktor Orban winning this election. Last year, when there was a presidential election in [15:28] Poland, he had his homeland defence secretary fly over to Poland to speak out in favour of the Trump [15:36] friendly candidate. And I mean Trump friendly. So in the, you know, in the crowd, people were wearing [15:41] their MAGA hats and so on and so forth. Steve Bannon, who is very vocal in European politics, [15:48] has spoken out in favour of Viktor Orban and his playbook and why his victory will be so important. [15:53] Can we game out a little bit the possible consequences of either permutation of the election? [16:00] So if Orban were to lose, how big of a deal would that be? [16:05] If Viktor Orban loses this election, it will be massive. Because it's 16 years of Viktor Orban, [16:14] it's 16 years of Viktor Orban's self declared illiberal democracy, shining a light for other [16:21] similar minded parties and hopefuls within Europe of what they can achieve and what they could do [16:27] to get to power to stay in power. It will send a message. Will it be the end of policy makers across [16:36] Europe, worrying about what they see as anti democratic forces on the far right and the [16:42] far left in Europe? Will it stop and enter concerns about Eurosceptic nationalist parties [16:49] wanting to kind of break the European Union from within? Absolutely not. And I always say, [16:54] when things seem black and white, there's something wrong there, because life is shades of grey. [16:58] That was Katja Adler, the BBC's Europe editor. And that's it for this episode of The Global Story. [17:04] We're also a podcast. We're available every weekday on bbc.com or wherever you listen. [17:10] Thanks for tuning into this one. We'll see you next time. Cheerio.