WHICH MEGA-CAP STOCK IS BEST POSITIONED? (07/15) Stock Market Analysis

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Blue cloud trading through the night. Welcome back to the channel, everyone. In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips from today's episode of the Halftime Report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking hands are saying. Hit that like button, subscribe if you haven't already, and let's roll the tape on the first clip. [00:00:33] Scott Wapner: Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, money into the mega caps. Just as Carl was saying, it's Apple, all of the hyperscalers ramping as we come on the air. We're trading the markets with the Investment Committee. Joining us for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Bill Baruch, Rob Seaton. Let's go to the scorecard here. I'll tell you what we're seeing today. And yes, the Nasdaq's only up by one quarter of one percent in what is a green across-the-board tape. But let's look at some of the mega caps. Take a look at Apple. Look at Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet. Three percent thereabouts for everything in that group. We weren't going to start here today. And then we saw this big move in all these names and said, well, let's start at this place in the market. [00:01:17] Speaker 3: And this seems to be the pattern for the month of July. We have these rotations that's allowing the overall market to inch its way higher. But every time the momentum factor maybe takes a couple of steps backward, we see capital coming out of memory, semis, semiconductor equipment. They're finding value opportunities in the mega caps. And it's interesting because three weeks ago we were hearing people suggesting that the MAG-7 was the LAG-7. They've certainly defeated that description. And right now they are fighting for leadership once again. You could never count out these trillion-dollar corporations with staggering revenue growth. They're breaking out. Apple's breaking out. And I said yesterday, I think NVIDIA is going to follow. It's down today. It had a strong afternoon yesterday. It's going to participate as well here in the coming weeks. Steve, yeah. [00:02:06] Scott Wapner: I mean, they're breaking out now. Let's see, you know, if it's durable because, you know, there have been some head fakes in this group of late. But, you know, week to date they're all looking good. Meta's up 15 percent over the last month. And it's really a story across the board led by this run that Apple's had. [00:02:24] Speaker 4: Yeah. And I also think that Meta's been positively complicit in it. When they came out and said, we're loading up on all this, you know, extra compute. These data centers have got 33 now. Or when the one in Canada will be finished, that will be 33. So now the market's saying, hey, let's go from the providers of AI solutions, because we're hearing about price cuts coming from China, you know, in terms of their AI models versus the tokens here. They're very expensive. So let's see now who we can take advantage of. And they're taking that Meta's announcements, or what we've heard about, Meta, as positive that they're going to generate return. Now, to me, this is like Groundhog Day. One day the market's up, and yesterday the headlines were all, semis are back, semis are back. And then we're taking a look today, and guess what? Semis are gone again. So you see a series of lower highs when this is happening. And to me, that once again signals, and the reason I exited Micron, is that we're closer to the end of the AI trade, not AI fundamentals, but AI trade. So I think it's going to be difficult. Closer to the end of the AI trade? Not in terms of the outperformance of the stocks. The fundamentals and the revenues for those companies will continue to grow. That spending is far from over. But I think the market's earlier than anybody expected. Yeah, price does lead. Paul Tudor Jones came out and said, right, you've got another year or two, right? But now the market all knows that, so they're getting out earlier. [00:03:58] Scott Wapner: I mean, I don't know if David Solomon was talking about early innings of this, just this phenomenon, really, that we've seen. I'm not saying it won't be back. I'm saying right now that's the market's. There's the semis trade, which seems impossible right now. Like, good luck if you're trying to figure out directionally where the semis are going. Because, as we've seen, the swings are huge, and the swings seem to have no stickiness. What is one day up could tomorrow be down as much as we've seen the up. And therein lies the issue with that. I wonder if some of that is why the mega caps are seeing the money come back. Once again, viewed as a safety place within the AI orbit, you know, people still think there's a lot of juice to be squeezed from these names. I thought it was really telling, and I loved hearing from Warren Buffett today with Becky. I think any time you get to hear from him, especially these days, is a treat. And the fact that he said he initiated Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Alphabet, as we all wondered, you know, well, was it him? Was it not? Said he made a mistake not investing in Google. The company is now, quote, more likely to be a winner based on its record. I don't think it's an accident that that revelation came today with Becky, that he made those comments and that the stock is doing what it's doing. [00:05:15] Speaker 5: You know, that's our largest overweight in the mega caps. I think that, you know, it has some of the most attractive characteristics. You could go back a year and they were being indicted as being taken over by chat and anthropic and their business being flawed. So, you know, you're going to have opportunities in these names, especially well capitalized names. I think it's interesting that Apple's the most expensive of all these names right now, all the mega cap names. It's certainly leading the bunch. I think Josh has a great thesis, Josh Brown, that that is the consumer entry into AI. If they want to get to the consumer, they have to go through a device. And that's why you're seeing so much energy being expended by the open AIs and the metas to develop their own type of a product in this space. I want to go back to what Steve said, because I think it's really important. We try to rhyme with history as it relates to the semi names. And what has happened is these volatile reactions that we've seen have been a result of something that might have happened in 2000 where fundamentals didn't deteriorate to a year after price deteriorated. And so every time there's a scare, people run for the exits because they know price leads in that segment. So far, you should believe that they are going to be innocent until proven guilty and be a buyer of those dips because you have enormous visibility. Now that you may have not had then multiple years out. And so, listen, hyperscalers are viewed as a hedge to that. So you're going to see the hyperscalers rally every time this momentum group sells off. I think you've got to own both. I think what David Solomon said is right. This AI ecosystem is under a long build out. No one is slowing their jets on that. They're flying full speed into it. And the beneficiaries are going to continue to be the beneficiaries for a while. [00:07:18] Speaker 6: I think you have to like Apple here a lot. I mean, you're getting the best of both worlds. And this is a breakout. I think it could go to $370. Well, Josh Brown members are talking $400, right? [00:07:28] Scott Wapner: So $370, $400. [00:07:30] Speaker 6: I'm just looking at the range that we've had recently and kind of giving that 100% extension. But you get the consumer dominating front end. I think that's terrific, the best of both worlds, because you're also getting the anti-CapEx trade here. And that's why the multiple is going higher. So I really like what we're seeing here with Apple. It's something that we've leaned into over the last two months, June 12th. We added more Apple in our concentrated portfolio. It's our number three name in our main portfolio. We're going to let this thing ride. And I think we can see in our base house case in the back half of the year is MAG7s going to outperform. I talked about it on the show last week as well. And, you know, NVIDIA is a name, too, that I like a lot here. It's been kind of consolidating. I mean, the free cash flow there is becoming amazing relative to the other MAG7s. And if it wasn't a $5 trillion company, you might even think that they'd take that thing private at some point. But at this size, that's obviously not on the table. Well, the one thing I would look to mention, what Steve touched on with the memory names, is Micron. And some of those names, yeah, maybe they got ahead of their skis. Micron is our largest position here. And it's just because we've been, you know, cost basis is like $70. But at this point, I think that you're seeing it come in a little bit. You're seeing some leverage unwind out of South Korea. You're seeing some of this trade just maybe kind of get tossed aside. And that's fine heading into, because a lot of them report the back half of earnings season. And I'd like to see them not at the highs going into that, because we saw what happened just over the last few weeks. They have these terrific reports. And then the stocks sell off. So I think, yeah, Scott, to your point, I think that is right. You're seeing a lot of rotation into the MAG7 that's coming out of some of these high-flyer AI infrastructure names. How about this? [00:09:10] Scott Wapner: Remember, leading into the SpaceX IPO, part of the narrative was, while the mega caps were weak, pretty substantially into that, money's coming out of mega caps, and it's readying itself to go into SpaceX, which it did on the open. Well, look at SpaceX, because now it has traded below its IPO price for the very first time. Is there a coincidence that money is all of a sudden now going back into the mega caps? It's a role reversal in some respects, don't you think? [00:09:41] Speaker 3: Well, first of all, as it relates to SpaceX, I think a lot of the appreciation of SpaceX was built upon scarcity in the equity market. The debt market really has been the adult in the room for SpaceX, and the debt offering in the secondary market was not strong. You saw spreads widen. And concurrent with that, you've seen the equity in SpaceX collapse. I don't have a position, so I'm not going to speak to the fundamental future of where this price goes, but I think it's right to point out what is happening right now as it relates to momentum funds. First of all, you have the seasonality of July, so we're beginning to see liquidity weaken. We're seeing volumes begin to decline somewhat. While that's going on, you're building momentum in an area of the market that's proven itself over the last several years, the MAG-7. From a valuation perspective, for those that care, they were ridiculously cheap, except for Apple. You saw NVIDIA's valuation at a level it hasn't been in the last seven years. And there's the opportunity to rotate as you saw the memory names like Micron go parabolic. If we could show a chart of Micron, Micron's down close to 10% today. I think the SK Hynex, okay, U.S. listing really exemplified that maybe there's just too much supply as it relates to the memory name for the marketplace to digest. You have SK Hynex down 12%. So you broke the fever in memory. It doesn't mean it eliminates the fundamentals for memory, but it means that capital is going to go to other places. And while this is all occurring, you're in the middle of earnings season. And guess what? You have these money center banks reporting historic record quarters. [00:11:26] Scott Wapner: Let's go back to SpaceX. What do you make of that move now below for the first time the 135 IPO price? Remember, this was a set price. There's no range. It was a set price of 135, 20% on the opening day, what was deemed to be a sweet spot, right? And here we go. It's been on almost steady decline since, give or take. But here we find ourselves. What do you make of that? [00:11:51] Speaker 5: So you had asked me that day, the day of the offering, because we were investors privately at various levels across time. We even had some investors participate in the LBO. Our advice to them and our advice that day was there's likely to be an opportunity to be a better buyer. We didn't think it would come this quickly. We thought it would come a little more after their inclusion into the indices. And as lockups started to release, because we understand the characteristics of those lockups coming off or how some of the special purpose vehicles that were set up were going to be paid their economics. Now, what supported that, and we weren't sure how far it would drop below the price, is A, it's an unbelievable business, right? B, there's an evangelistic following of this entrepreneur. [00:12:43] Scott Wapner: Let me stop you real quick. When you said you didn't think it would be this quickly that it would drop like this, why do you think it is? [00:12:51] Speaker 5: I don't know if it's a rotation. I think it's caught up in the momentum. Let me take a step back on that. There is a lot of hot money in this market. You have levered ETFs on Micron. You have levered ETFs on SK Hynix. You have tons of people playing fast money moves, and they're in and they're out quickly. So when something, you know, isn't working, you're going to see it re-rate much more quickly in those spaces where you've seen parabolic moves. And this was parabolic. So I think that might have something to do with it. I don't know that I lend too much to the supply of these issues because we're not, there's not an extraordinary amount of supply in the market. You realize that companies are being taken out. There's much less public float broadly than there was years ago. [00:13:43] Scott Wapner: It's a difference of sectors, though. Are we gaming out, like, lock-up stuff, which is trying to get ahead, the market's trying to get ahead of all that? [00:13:49] Speaker 4: I think it's kind of symptomatic of the market and short-termism. So the weakest holders of any company, of any stock, are the new holders because they have no history with it. So this is all new money that came into this, and a lot of money, as we saw, came in on the IPO day. So they don't want to be underwater. A lot of those that came in that day sold as it moved up. We started to see it over 200. I traded it, lost a little money, but not a lot. And I just think it's the unwind of the momentum names that we're continuing to see. So I don't know if it's anything peculiar to SpaceX, other than SpaceX is a faith stop. Yes, tremendous business, but you can't value it. There's no valuation you could put on this. And yet we know they're spending a lot of money, and we don't know when they'll be profitable. In terms of the overall market, I think you see short-termism as well, because we have real issues with Iran that will take a look at the numbers today. PPI came down nicely. All the inputs that drove it lower were oil. Those have already reversed. [00:14:53] Speaker 6: Well, oil is only back to where it was the middle of June. So it's not like it's gasoline is back above where it was. Bill, Bill, you're missing the point. [00:15:00] Speaker 4: It was down today because oil is lower, right? Oil was lower, that influenced the number. What I'm saying is momentum to oil is higher, and with everything that's going on in Iran, it's going to drive it higher as well. And that will reverse the decline in inflation we saw today and tomorrow. It's not where oil was a month ago or even three months ago. I don't know, Steve. [00:15:21] Speaker 5: All the core PPI was softer, too. So I don't buy that narrative. I don't buy that narrative. You just look at the core number, X Energy. What leads into CPI? What's the leading indicator of CPI? One of them is the PPI we're talking about today, which is the market. [00:15:40] Scott Wapner: I want to talk about ASML rather than go deeper into that. What are we to make of, Rob, you own the stock, this price action today? So it was a nice gainer, wasn't it? There's the intraday, which sort of gives you some green on the screen. When they hike their forecast, they have strong chip demand, stock goes down by 2%. Is that just because, as Wolf talks about today, semis in general have gone from parabolic to chaotic, and this is an evidence point of the chaos in this group? [00:16:13] Speaker 5: I mean, the key takeaway to me is it seems like the markets want to sell this group because they increased full-year guidance, raised it by 15%, and now they're expecting 30% year-on-year revenue growth for years to come. The company has incredible pricing power. There's virtually no way that you can make a chip without this advanced etching that they do, the lithography. So they are the ultimate bottleneck. Maybe it's the stock's a little pricey relative to history. Maybe that it's up 70% year-to-date, and some people are taking money off the table. But this is a good earnings report that we saw today. [00:16:58] Speaker 3: Nothing wrong with the earnings report for ASML. Nothing was wrong with the earnings report for Micron. What is wrong? [00:17:03] Scott Wapner: Nothing was wrong with Broadcom. Remember that? Correct. Arguably the first sort of rumble in the space, right? [00:17:11] Speaker 3: Yes. And you know what was wrong? The expectations. And that's basically what price is reacting to. Very lofty expectations across the board for semis and memory. And despite really good earnings, there's just not enough incremental room to advance the stock higher based on those high expectations. So we hit IBM. [00:17:32] Scott Wapner: You've had a chance to sleep on this now and sort of digest what happened to that stock yesterday, the worst day ever. It's worth another check-in as it gets downgraded at Oppenheimer today to perform. That's after the pre-announcement. If you were looking for a rebound today, you're not getting it. Is there a statement in that? Down 25 percent or whatever it was yesterday? I think the narrative's changed a bit, at least near term. [00:17:58] Speaker 5: Well, there's no question. They're seeing a reset because, you know, it's clear that their ability to leverage AI versus being disrupted by it is being challenged. I still think it has to do with redirection of corporate spending into other areas, which is why you've seen the cybersecurity companies do so well. And so who knows? Maybe this quarter you can see more of a pickup. You know, the spillover into things like now has not been too traumatic. So I don't think this as a whole sell every part of the software ecosystem. I think what it's done is created haves and have-nots. And IBM admittedly said they stubbed their toe here. And so I think they can get back on track. Remember, we're still up 60 percent even after this. [00:18:55] Scott Wapner: No, I know, but you don't want to come back a month from now and say, hey, we're still up 40 percent. Hey, we're still up 30 percent. Therein lies issues like this, you know what I'm saying? [00:19:03] Speaker 5: Fair, fair. And we continue to be patient with it because all the metrics meet except the disruption that we had this quarter where they missed. [00:19:14] Speaker 6: I think we really are in this environment now where if there is a winner, it does start to come at the expense of others. And we're seeing that with the cyber yesterday and IBM. That was the implication. I know Sarah Eisen hit on that with Arvin Krishna. The other thing, too, is it's holding back a lot of story is the compute. I mean, we are constrained on compute and the hyperscalers are trying to spend on to raise compute. But there needs to be a clear path to more compute, not headwinds. And until that happens, we could be going through this up and down phase where there's good days and then the next day is a bad day. And that's kind of how I see it right now. [00:19:46] Speaker 4: We'll see how it turns out in earnings. So what's really happening, as they point out. Yeah, right. [00:19:51] Scott Wapner: There's a there's a sort of dearth of information. [00:19:54] Speaker 4: Exactly. We just don't know, like how the spending patterns change. So our company is allocating. They have finite technology budgets. Where are they transitioning those budgets? And I think it's pretty clear that they're going away from software to what's going to drive their AI performance. [00:20:08] Scott Wapner: Can we go? So I just want to mention, you guys mentioned cyber. Crowd strike, new record high today. I mean, that's been obviously in the spotlight even more so perhaps after IBM. But to what we were going to begin with today until we saw these mega caps starting to ramp into the program is the near record buying in financials. OK. It's the best performing group over the past month. So let's take a look at those. That's according to B of A's flow show. You have to have the biggest buying in that group, according to that flow, since 2020. It was a record high. Goldman was ripping yesterday on its earnings. That was a blowout report, a blowout stock move, given a smidge back today. But it's insignificant, really, considering what the stock has done. JPM, Bank of America, record highs. Morgan Stanley, the latest to knock it out of the park with their own earnings report. The share is a little underwhelming. It was red, turned green. Look at MS if you could for me because I'm not sure where it is now. It gives you an idea, a little bit of the volatility in here. So it's negative again. What do you think of this money move into the financials? [00:21:16] Speaker 3: I think it's going to continue. I focus on position. I focus on sentiment. Sentiment was depressed coming into the second quarter for financials. There was disappointment. There was high expectations at the beginning of the year, and they didn't meet the expectations. If you remember, we were sitting here in April talking about really strong quarters across the board for money center banks. The reaction was negative to that. So you have a tremendous opportunity to rebuild that sentiment, to rebuild positioning. That's exactly what's going on. It's one of the reasons why I tried to get in front when we were out at the U.S. Open of buying JPMorgan on the anticipation that this, in fact, could happen. I think it continues. I think it spreads throughout the financial sector into the regional banks. It's not just isolated to money center banks. Is this the group now to own? [00:22:01] Scott Wapner: I think selectively, yeah. You still have to be selective of the big banks. [00:22:07] Speaker 4: Yeah, I prefer, I mean, I prefer Goldman, honestly. That's what I own. I think they're the most leveraged to the underwriting, to the M&A cycle. And I think the market's basically okay here. And it being okay, you see a lot more of that. Look, you've got open AI, you've got Anthropic. At some point, they're not going to be able to raise the capital they've been raising nonstop. So they need the IPO market. Now, they may think, have second thoughts about it after looking at SpaceX. I don't think they will. So that's going to continue. That's going to drive that. It's going to drive more M&A when they have a public company stock. So to me, Goldman, and the humility that they have, I mean, I, well, I'm not talking about email change, but the humility they have, where they're saying that the battle's ahead of us still, and that it's one day at a time, I think it's impressive, given the quarter they put up. [00:22:57] Speaker 6: I would add that rate volatility is a tailwind. I think the steepening yield curve under Warsh is what we're going to see. That's also going to be a tailwind. But in the near term, I would add that when these banks come out with terrific earnings reports, we see them higher for a day or two. A week later, they are typically lower. So if you were looking to be buying banks right here, be patient. I think you'll find some better spots. Let's talk about the equities. [00:23:17] Scott Wapner: No one's even mentioned equities trading. In Morgan Stanley's case, up 69%. I don't remember off the top of my head what it was for the others that have already reported, but it was as much of a wow factor in many of the other names, too. You own Morgan Stanley. [00:23:33] Speaker 5: Yeah, we added it on the show not long ago because we wanted to go overweight financials coming into this. We actually trimmed a little WFC kind of going into it because of the more capital markets exposure you have with Morgan Stanley. In addition, their banking franchise and that wealth management franchise, 14% year-on-year growth. And I think, what was the number on net new money? It was blindingly impressive. 150% year-on-year net new money. [00:24:07] Speaker 3: And that strong environment is good for the asset managers. Take a look at BlackRock, if we could show that chart. [00:24:12] Scott Wapner: Yeah, up nicely. [00:24:13] Speaker 3: BlackRock's only up 2% year-to-date. So, the move that I was talking about anticipating for J.P. Morgan, you're at the same moment where you're beginning at the initial stages to build momentum. I like BlackRock. I don't know if anyone's willing to step out and take a chance on the private equity names. I said last week I think Blackstone would be the one name. That's up about 10% here so far in the month of July. I think Blackstone's probably seen the worst. [00:24:38] Scott Wapner: Target moves today, just real quick, Goldman, 1325. That's the high on my list of many calls today on that name in terms of prices. Wells goes there. That's Mike Mayo, which is noteworthy in and of itself. J.P. Morgan from Mayo also goes to 375. The highest I have in front of me is Barclays going to 420. So, there is some renewed bullishness. There's no doubt about that out of the financial space. Coming up, we have committee moves. Steve White selling one stock, reports earnings this week, so he's doing that ahead of that. [00:25:10] Speaker 1: All right, so that was the first clip from CNBC. We're going to take a look at a number of the stocks that they discussed. There were some stocks that were discussed on the show that I'm not covering here. Those may be in my portfolio. If you guys want to get access to those, do the following. Go to my YouTube homepage, Blue Cloud Trading. Select the Join button. It's right next to Subscribe. You'll be able to get access to these member-only videos that you see below. And my entire portfolio. Hit the Join button. Like I said, click the Blue Cloud Trader level or Blue Cloud Legend level member to get those videos. You will not be able to see them under Blue Cloud Supporter. All right. And let's get back to what we were just talking about. So, there's about 18 stocks we're going to cover. And it's a combination of stocks and ETFs that they just talked about. Let's start off with Apple. Apple had a big day today. It was up 4.01%. And what I like about this particular chart, as we were talking about yesterday and the day before price was stalling at that 317.40 level, we were waiting for confirmation. What's interesting is, check out what happened today. And let me zoom in so you can see it closely. The price essentially gapped up. Okay. So, it gapped right above the 317.40. And then the buyers stepped in and they started pushing it further up. If we can see all that action here, if we switch it to the three-minute chart, the market is now closed. It's after 4 p.m. So, I can show you exactly what's going on. Apple closed up 4.01% for the day. So, here's the action today, the 15th, July 15th. As you see the gap up right there, price continued moving up. There was a little bit of a small little pause right there before price broke through that level. Continued up some more, creating another higher low from the prior one. Another higher low right here. And then we basically kind of stabilized, I think, and created a little bit of a consolidation stage at the top. But that's a pretty big move, 4.01%. And if you look at that daily chart, we now are looking very, very bullish here with Apple. In fact, the ADX also started moving up today. The positive DI was already above the negative DI. So, that's all good for Apple. If you look at the weekly chart, it's also now clearly above that 317.40. Now, the question is, will it still remain above by the end of this week, Friday, right? So, we'll see. We'll be watching it. Out of the 18 stocks that I'm going to be talking about, there's just four that hit the blue flag this week, or today, sorry. And it's basically CrowdStrike, JP Morgan, and XLF, along with Apple. What does that mean? It means that these particular ticker symbols are bullish on both the weekly timeframe and the daily. So, let's look at CrowdStrike next. And let's start off with the weekly chart, actually. So, what I like about this one, too, price is above the moving averages, right? So, we've got price here above. And we're using the Ichimoku indicator. We've got price above the 9 period, the 26 period, and price is obviously above this Ichimoku cloud here. And the cloud is looking bullish for the future. So, how do we know when that's the case? It's basically when we see the Ichimoku span A, this light-colored blue line that you see right there above the Ichimoku span B, the purple line. And so, that's a bullish cloud right there on the weekly chart. You look at the daily chart, we've got the same thing here. Prices above the two moving averages. This lagging line here, Ichimoku span, okay, that's above the candle 26 periods ago on the daily. And it's above the 26 period in the past weekly, so the last 26 weeks, right? White line represents, again, the current price projected 26 periods ago in a line form. So, that's very bullish. I like CrowdStrike. Was it down today? Yes, it was down 1.88%. So, it did actually, like yesterday, I mentioned how price barely, barely closed above the 209.50 resistance level. And that's not a very good sign when you don't see a nice conclusive breakout like we did here with Apple, where it actually gapped up and then started moving up. So, CrowdStrike, it just barely made it. It was not, it looked to me like the bears were really fighting it off here. And so, in a scenario like this, you can't be super confident that it's definitely going to move up or there's a higher probability that it's going to move up. So, it did gap up slightly and then the rest of the day, the bears took control again. So, here's the three-minute chart. We can see what happened here with this little pop-up here. We had a shooting star. That's a long wick with a small body right there. That candle that you see right there, price dropped and then started moving sideways the rest of the day. So, yeah, CrowdStrike right now wouldn't be adding a position just based on this particular candle. I want to see a more conclusive break above the 209.50. JP Morgan also. So, yesterday we talked about this bullish engulfing pattern. It's where price actually gapped down, came back up, engulfed the prior small little red candle. It also got above this symmetrical triangle. So, it closed above it. And as I said, that was more bullish than bearish. Price gapped up, got above that 343.45 level. That's good. The only problem is we have another reversal candle. That's a doji that you see right there. That's when the opening price and closing price basically are the same level. The wick at the top represents the high of the day. The wick at the bottom represents the low of the day. All right? And we can see all that in the three-minute chart. Right? So, gapped up and it just moved sideways pretty much from the opening price to the closing price. Right? It was very, very close. So, let's look at the next one. XLF on the weekly chart. That's the financials ETF. That one's up 56.59. Is the level that it basically needs to close above. And it closed at 56.56. Just three pennies under it. Found resistance at that prior high from January 9th, 2026. So, again, it's just basically a wait and see approach here that I would take. Overall, I'm more bullish than bearish, obviously, because of the fact that we're above the cloud and all the moving averages are in the correct order on the weekly. Same thing here on the daily. But those wicks, all those represent basically is a piercing. Right? Price reached that high. It got above it temporarily. And then the bears pushed it right back under that level. So, it was sort of like popping its head up above the water and then, boom, back under. Let's look at the rest of these. Now, the rest of these, there's something off technically on either the weekly or the daily chart. Therefore, they don't get a blue flag. Okay? The blue flag are the more higher probability trades. And the daily has been moving up since this low here. It's moved up about 12.5%. And so, on the daily chart, we're still inside the cloud. We have a bearish cloud here. That's on the single span A is under the single span B. That's the daily chart. On the weekly chart, it's actually looking really bullish here for Amazon because we broke above that nine period. So, I like to put more emphasis on the weekly chart as far as getting a clear direction outlook of where the stock is. But the daily has been moving up since this low here. It's moved up about 12.2% or so from the low. It's looking good. It's moving in the right direction. The directional movement index is confirming that here with the ADX moving up while the green line, the positive DI9 is moving up and the negative DI9 is moving down. So, Amazon is looking interesting, but it's going to reach some resistance very soon here. It's going to reach resistance around where the cloud is. And so, we'll see if it can penetrate that cloud. We need some confirmation as far as I'm concerned for Amazon. ASML, all right. We had a negative crossover here today. So, although this stock was up 2.31%, you can see how it gapped up. It created what's called a hanging man pattern. And that's a negative pattern. It also closed right under that 26 period. So, I wouldn't be adding a position here. If you look at the weekly, though, very strong. So, again, the weekly is really important to pay attention to. Broadcom. This one here, a little bit weaker because it's been stuck underneath the 9 period here for a little while. But if you look at the daily chart, it's also re-entering the cloud. So, that's a good sign. That's a positive sign. But it's still not quite there yet. BLK. BlackRock Incorporated. Now, this one here gapped up. You can see here on the daily chart, up 6.61%. Basically, popped right above that 200-day as well. So, it took out a lot of resistance here. It took out the resistance of the cloud itself. All right. And then also the 200. If we look at the future cloud, that also turned bullish today with a single span A crossing back above the single span B. The directional movement index looks good. But what does the weekly chart look like on AS, I'm sorry, on BlackRock? It's stuck right inside the cloud still. So, we don't have double confirmation yet. DRAM is roundtable memory ETF. This one is still under the 9 period, three weeks in a row now. Down 6.31%. Here's a daily chart for you. Entering the cloud, not a good sign. Google, on the other hand, broke through this trend line. So, if we look at the high of this candle and the high of that candle. Okay. Draw a line. You see the price breaking through. What else happened today? Google actually had the ADX moving up slightly. I mean, it's very, very slight. You can hardly see it. But it is slightly up. Green line is above red line. Volume is about almost double yesterday's volume. And it was up 3.17%. So, I kind of like what I'm seeing here with Google. It still has resistance, though. Around 379. That's where the top of the cloud is. On the weekly chart, we're back above the 9 period here. Let's see if we can close above that 9 period on the weekly on Friday. IBM yesterday had a big drop, right? So, here's the daily chart right here. We saw the gap down. And now it's continuing its drop. So, that's not a good sign. As I mentioned before, it's never a good idea to be adding positions when prices under the cloud. Why? Because we don't know exactly when that decline is going to end, right? The bears have taken control here. And so, there's a continuation to the downside right now. I would hold off on IBM. Meta, on the other hand, gapped up not recently. Basically, pretty recently back on July 10th and stayed above that 200. I like what I'm seeing here with Meta on the daily chart. We see the cloud turning bullish. ADX is moving up. And so, yeah, it also does have some resistance. Let's throw on the resistance level that I see, the most closest resistance level. It's this particular candle right here. The high is 691.52. So, we are really close to that level. Okay, that's about just 1.4% away. So, it could stall there potentially. Here's a weekly chart. We're still, we still have, we broke through the cloud, which is good. But the faster moving average here is under this lower one. The cloud is still bearish, technically. So, we don't have a lot of confirmation. We haven't taken out this high here either. Okay. Microsoft was up 2.78%. Here's the weekly chart. Breaking back above that 200, but it's under the cloud. On the daily chart, we're also under the cloud. That's bearish territory. Micron is under the moving averages. And we had a negative crossover here. And the white line is currently inside the candle. So, that's also bearish. But it could bounce right at the cloud. I just wouldn't add positions here yet. Here's the weekly chart. Still declining, you know, four weeks in a row. NVIDIA today actually got back above the nine period on the weekly, but we need to wait until Friday for confirmation because this candle is still forming. On the daily chart, it's still inside the cloud. We're getting closer and closer. Maybe we'll see a breakout. I'd like to see it get above this trend line as well. That would be even more confirmation. All right. SKHY is another stock they talked about. There's not a lot of data here yet because, you know, basically it was on Friday, July 10th that this became a public company. Opened at 170, right? And it's currently at 176.46. Let's switch it to a shorter time frame so we can get more information because this is very, very messy the way it looks right now. So, let's look at a 30-minute. Even the 30-minute doesn't have enough data. So, let's go to a 10-minute on this one. So, this is what it looks like on a 10-minute chart. We can see a little bit more what's happening with the Ichimoku indicator. It's currently onto the cloud in the 10-minute. You switch it to a 5-minute. You know, we had a nice little pop here and then it's been just it's inside the cloud. So, there's no clear direction. And it was down 9% today. Let's look at the next one. SMH is an ETF for the semiconductors. It's currently still under that 9 period. All right. So, I don't see NVIDIA basically moving without this ETF. Or maybe it will be NVIDIA that actually helps to push this ETF back up. We'll see. On the weekly chart, it's still inside this consolidation box. On the daily chart, we're still under the 26 period and the 9 period. But finding support right at the cloud. So, maybe we'll get a bounce. SPCX, SpaceX. Let's take a look at this one. So, let's start off. As you know, there's not a lot of data here. Again, this particular stock was introduced to the markets on June 12th. So, where it went public. Let's switch it to a 30 minute for more information. So, you can see how initially, of course, most stocks when they go public, they tend, especially one that was such notoriety there and Elon Musk behind it. The price jumped, right? But ever since then, it's basically stayed under the moving averages, under the cloud. There was a moment here briefly where it got above the cloud on the 30 minute chart. It was just a short-lived little pop. It continued to drop. And as you can see, there's still not, this is not the time to be adding positions in SPCX. If the 30 minute chart doesn't give you a head, like a, you know, a bullish sign, I don't know, you know, why take that chance, basically. It looks to me like it's an embedded decline right now. All right. Now, what we're going to do is we're going to watch one more clip from CNBC. All right. And then, I'll do the follow-up technical analysis on those stocks. And then, I'll also cover the indices, right? So, as you know, I always cover the SPY, the Qs, the Dow, the Russell, VIX, Eurostox, Gold, Silver, Oil, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Copper. So, let's go ahead and watch that in the next clip. [00:40:03] Scott Wapner: Welcome back. A new committee move to tell you about. You've been negative on this name, I think, for a while. It's Netflix. Yeah. Which now you're finally just out of, right? [00:40:11] Speaker 4: I'm just out of it. I sold a lot of it down, as I've mentioned on this show. And here are my concerns. Network streaming has gotten more competitive, not just from Paramount, Time Warner, but you see probably even offered everywhere. And they seem to be trying to find a lever for growth. First of all, the time the Warner Brothers Act was interesting to get, then the rumors of Lionsgate, and now reselling other streaming subscriptions on their site is the talk. So, you only do that when you see growth slowing down. It's not expensive, but the growth's not going to be there. So, I do have concerns going to the quarter. I didn't sell it for this quarter because I think the stock's pretty depressed. And if you look at the odds, the odds are more that it'll trade up because after they miss a quarter, they usually bounce back the next. But it was more, look, it's a small enough position now. Not been a great position for me lately versus when I owned it last year and got out and came back. And I'm just, you know, hoarding capital cash right now. [00:41:09] Scott Wapner: Give me a couple of years, two, three years on this, guys, please. Sentiment's turned. It's incredible. Yeah. It's astounding. Sentiment has turned. [00:41:18] Speaker 5: You own it. We do. We bought it recently on the latest dip. You've been paid to buy these dips in this name. As Steve said, it is cheap. There's valid concerns around saturation, competition, stickiness of their content, slowing subscriber growth. But let's not forget, this company is expected to generate $15 billion in free cash flow this year. Okay. They have the lowest content spend per subscriber, which means they can dive into sports, they have the optionality to do that, and drive more growth. They have been incredible at engineering that, and I'm willing to be patient to wait for that to happen. [00:41:59] Scott Wapner: This is a number. Give me that chart back, guys, please, the three-year, because this is, to your example, I forgot what we were talking about before, but the lower high risk, right? If you take a look at the bounce after last quarter, and when they did not get Warner, stock moved [00:42:16] Speaker ?: up. [00:42:16] Speaker 5: I don't know why it didn't hold there, frankly. It should have. Well, that's the biggest, I guess, mystery in some respects. [00:42:26] Scott Wapner: Given what the narrative was when the bidding war was happening, that there was, I think, a better view from at least those in our orbit on this program that if they don't get the time to jump, it did jump, and then it was wiped. [00:42:53] Speaker 4: Yeah, and one of the reasons why I bought it was because you've got a debt-constrained competitor in Paramount, right? We're seeing that. So their leverage is significant, too significant for this industry. And by the way, who was it yesterday? [00:43:11] Scott Wapner: I can't remember either. Who had the call that, you know, asking the question whether Disney should get out of the streaming business altogether? It used to be, you know, Disney can't compete if maybe nobody can compete with what Netflix has built. They have the pricing power in the way that others don't, right? They raised their prices. It has had no impact on the stock. At that moment, when the news hits, there's no negative move in Netflix when they raise prices. In fact, the stock generally goes up because we say on this program, in other words, well, they're one of the few who has pricing power. [00:43:46] Speaker 4: Yeah. I mean, my market on the earnings report is 68, 70 on the downside, 85 on the upside, slightly more on the upside, but I just still got out. [00:43:58] Speaker 3: Netflix has lost market share over the last several years to the likes of Amazon, to the likes of Apple TV, to the likes of Paramount. That's just statistically factual. [00:44:08] Speaker 5: Who are all, not all, but who many, as was just pointed out, are going to struggle with the investments in new content that they can make. Okay. It's a lot of spending. A lot of sports. I mean, they have the free cash flow to do it. [00:44:24] Scott Wapner: All right. Well, speaking of buying sports rights, big money on the pitch. Our parent company, Burson, Inkey. Let's do the setup. We do have United Airlines. After the bell, Joe T owns United. [00:44:38] Speaker 3: What do you think? Well, I mentioned earlier in the show expectations, and I think they benefit here from Delta reporting last week and the expectations being lower. But for $1.88, rather, EPS, $17.6 billion as it relates to revenue. The capacity outlook is going to be important, and also the commentary on the recent spike. Keep in mind, you have jet fuel and oil prices up double digits this month, and you've seen United decline double digits accordingly. Did you say expectations are lower after Delta? I think they are, yeah. Why so? I think the expectations are lower because of what we've seen with crude oil. You've already seen the price reaction to Delta not really be favorable to what is really strong demand, higher fares, and capacity in the favor of the airlines. So price is corrected somewhat. [00:45:27] Scott Wapner: Okay. We'll do final trades. Final trades. Who's going to go first today? [00:45:34] Speaker 6: Bill Baruch. Lily, it's backtesting. It's breakout and on the downslope of a CapEx cycle. Real exciting here. All righty. Thank you. Robert. [00:45:45] Speaker 5: Bistro, BST. It's done nothing for the year but woke up this past month. I think energy can be a trade in the second half. [00:45:52] Scott Wapner: All right. Mega caps, as we said, are having a good day across the board today. So who's meta? Meta would be me, Scott. Okay. Weiss? [00:45:59] Speaker 4: So it may be slightly ahead of itself, but I still like it. I still think it's reasonably valued. Joey? T. Rowe price. [00:46:05] Scott Wapner: All right. I'll see you on the bell. The exchange is down. [00:46:11] Speaker 7: Thank you very much, Scott. We'll see you later this hour, in fact. And take a look, everybody, at shares of SpaceX falling below the 135 IPO price. Also, the semis broadly weighing on the market again today. I'm Kelly Evans, and welcome to the exchange. The sell-up in chip stocks is accelerating this hour with the SOX ETF down almost 5%. You can see the names in that space as well. We have Western Digital down 10%, Sandisk down 12%. The MAG-7 keeping the tech space from even bigger declines. And the financials are picking up some slack again. BlackRock up 7% as it crosses $15 trillion in assets under management. We'll talk more about that and what's been driving it. And a health expert weighs in on the cyclospora outbreak as Americans... [00:46:54] Speaker 1: Okay, that was the final clip. We're going to take a look at the stocks they just talked about. There's just six of them right there. And then we'll take a look at the indices. So let's start off with T-R-O-W, T. Rowe price. It's the only one that has a blue flag. Let's start off with actually the weekly, the higher time frame. So why does it get that blue flag? Again, we have a bullish cloud here. Let me get rid of this yellow line. So there's no confusion. I'm not sure. These are really old. Let's get rid of all those actually. Really old. Okay. So T-Rowe price. Now, T-Rowe price as a company from the highs back in 2022 had dropped quite a bit. You can see that double top right there, that pattern right there. It had dropped approximately 65% over three and a half years. Now, from that low, however, it's now moved up 51.06%. We have a higher low than the prior one. We broke through this high here. We're above the 200-day on the weekly chart. This is how you know that the trend is starting to shift, right? It's going from bearish or neutral, all right, to basically more bullish. And it's breaking through levels of resistance, like this one here. Are there more resistance levels above? Absolutely. You can see those tops right there. And I'm sure that's why it's kind of stalling at that level. If I draw that trend line all the way across, you can see how it hit that top there and there. And then basically now we're at that same level. But if we look at the dealer chart, today was a good day. It was up 2.16%. And we had yesterday, this particular stock had what's called a bullish harami, a large red candle followed by a small little bullish candle, okay, that basically is within the body of the prior one. It follows it. This is a bullish pattern. And it gapped up, got above the nine period. Now it's in bullish territory once again. So I like T-Row overall. Not crazy about that little upper wick there. If you look at the three-minute chart, you know, it just gapped up. And then it just kind of fizzled out for the most part the rest of the day. But overall, you look at the big picture, T-Row looks good. Delta Air Lanes. Let's start again with the weekly chart here. This is pulling back a little bit on the weekly but still holding above the cloud and moving averages on the daily chart. It is under the nine period. And today it looks like it's also under the 26 as well. So it needs a little bit of a little work here because the ADX is still dropping. That means that the momentum is still subsiding to the downside. LLY, which is Eli Lilly, has also been dropping. Now, this level that you see here is a purple line. And what that represents is a monthly level. So let me go ahead and switch it for a moment to the monthly chart. Each one of these little bars represents one month. You can see all the years here. And what I like about what I'm seeing right now is that last month, the month of June, the end of June, we closed above that 11th, 33.95 level. It was based on these prior highs here. And we're still above it. In fact, if you switch it to a weekly chart, you can see how we're pulling back and touched it on the daily chart. You can see it stalling right at that level again. So isn't it interesting how important these levels can be? Will we see a bounce? That's the question. Would I be adding a position here? Not until I noticed that it also closed above the moving averages, obviously. So it's still under these moving averages and a little suspect at this point, especially since the directional movement index, you see the red line is above the green line. Let's look at the next one, Netflix. Here it is in the weekly chart. Okay. What's interesting about Netflix, you know, we've had this big decline. But now for the last four weeks, Netflix has been stalling at that 200, has been finding a little bit of a surplus. So it's still under the cloud, but it's still under the cloud and it's still in a decline. So I wouldn't be adding Netflix, obviously. Here's a daily chart. Their earnings come out tomorrow. We might see a pop, potentially, if they can put out some positive earnings. We'll see what happens there. Okay. It's, it's, it's a little bit risky, but, um, a lot of times after a big decline, uh, you know, they might try to, um, make things look a lot more optimistic. Like, you know, I certainly wouldn't be, uh, the CEOs, I don't think it's going to do anything similar to what, uh, the IBM CEO did that led to the 25% drop in IBM yesterday. So we'll see what happens with Netflix, um, UAL, United Airlines is pulling back and finding support at that 26 period, right? But it's under the nine period on the daily, on the weekly chart, it still looks pretty good. It's still holding up above this 119.21 support level from this prior high. I like that. Uh, Vistra has been sort of stagnant here. It's been in a very tight consolidation on the weekly chart. You can see this box that it's stuck in inside the cloud right now on the weekly and on the daily chart, it is under the 200. So I wouldn't be touching this one at this point. All right, let's look at the indices now. And before we look at these, I do want to show you guys how the markets performed today. So, uh, this is now currently 5 58 PM. It's July 15th. Market has closed and the Dow was up 0.29. NASDAQ was up 0.64. I'm sorry, 0.62. It didn't really look like that around 12 PM. If you guys looked at the market, it was actually declining at that time, 12 PM, right? See that? And then it started to recover again. And the S&P 500 was up 0.38 and the Russell up 0.43. These again are not really big moves, but there's a lot of volatility each day, uh, in, uh, in these indices, which is interesting. So, all right, let's take a look at the heat map too. Let's see how the individual stocks performed. So you can see how Microsoft, Apple, Oracle, they were up, Nvidia up, Google and Meta, Amazon, all the Mac seven stocks were up. Um, the majority of the financial stocks were, were up. Uh, the insurance companies were down slightly on the technology front, the semiconductor equipment and material stocks were looking pretty bad here. Cisco was down, IBM was down again, like I said earlier. Um, so a very mixed picture here. And if we look at the groups, it was communication services and consumer cyclical at the top today and energy utilities at the bottom. All right. Let's get back into this. So let's look at the spy ETF. What's going on by the way today, the S&P 500, the spy ETF actually got a blue flag for the first time in a little while. And why did you get that because price is currently above the moving averages, Tenkinson, Kegenson above the cloud. Uh, it's the Chico span, which was under price, the white line there, got above for the first day today. Uh, if you look down below, the directional movement index is also giving us a little bit of a positive, uh, crossover here. Volume was etched up a little bit, moved up, right? Edged up a little higher, which is good. Let's look at the future cloud. What does that look like? It's still bullish. Uh, and this is the daily chart. And here's the weekly. Okay. However, with all of that said and done, uh, the ADX is still dropping here on the weekly, which means that consolidation and we're still in a consolidation phase. We're not in an expansion phase yet. All right. There's just a lot of holding here and waiting. Same thing here in the daily chart. As long as we remain under that 760.40, you have to be very, um, cautious with the spy as far as I'm concerned. And although it does get a blue flag, there's still, it needs to break through those barriers. All right. Next, the QQQ ETF is still under this trend line. Okay. So that's another thing that you have to keep in mind. Um, will the MAG7 stocks help to push price back up for the Qs? I don't know. The QQ ETF is still looking pretty stagnant. The Dow Jones on the weekly looks good. On the daily chart, it's under the nine period still for basically six days in a row. Russell 2000 also under the nine period for four days in a row. And under that two, nine, nine 49, the VIX is under the cloud. Uh, that's a good sign. Actually, we want that volatility to be dropping down 4.9%. Uh, that's a good sign for the markets. So when we see that volatility decline, FEZ, Euro stocks moved up 0.75, but it's still under the 26 period. So no on that one. GLD is still under the cloud, under the moving averages. It was up slightly 0.05% today. Silver was down 1.81 under the cloud. Still bearish territory here. Oil K, interestingly enough, was up 0.85% today. Broke through that trend line. So that's, you know, it's a little bit of a hint that we may see an expansion now to the next level of resistance, which would be the cloud. How far away is that? That's another 6.8%. We could see crude oil moving up further. The directional movement index confirms that potential move before it hits its head right there at that cloud. So we might see short-term, really short-term price moving up. I mean, switching it to a 30-minute chart, we're obviously in a nice uptrend here, okay, with Oil K. What about Bitcoin? IBIT is the ETF here. That's still under the cloud on the daily chart. It was up 0.63%. Now we got a positive crossover here. So things are looking slightly more bullish for Bitcoin in recent days. If you look at the 30-minute chart, we broke through the cloud. All right. So very, very short-term, Bitcoin does look good. Ethereum, same thing. It's been moving up slightly here on the 30-minute. If you look at the daily chart, though, we're still, we actually entered the cloud. So this is interesting. We've got a bullish crossover here. The directional movement index is starting to become more positive here. I'm sure Tom Lee is very happy about what's going on with Ethereum since he has such a big stake in it. COPX, the Copper Miners ETF, is still under the cloud, under this trend line. But it's still holding above the 200, so nothing to do here either. It was down 1.85% today. So that's it, folks. That we covered a lot today. And if you liked what you just saw and you want to support the channel, make sure to subscribe. Hit the notification bell. Hit the like button. If you want to get extra content that I do each weekend, I go over my entire portfolio in a video. They're usually about an hour long. Become a member. So you can access these videos that I do each weekend. If you want to get access to my portfolio on a daily basis, where I basically share the trades that I've placed, what happens is once you become a Blue Cloud Legend level number, it's the highest level, you get access to the member-only strategy videos plus the daily trade updates. So you do need to select that and then hit the Join button. Once you do, there'll be a new tab that pops up next to the posts. It will look like this. You'll see Membership. You click on that, that's where you'll find the daily posts. And I usually post those before the market closes. It could be any time between, I don't know, 1 o'clock and 4 p.m. But usually around 2 p.m. Thanks for watching. I appreciate all of you guys. Have a great rest of the day. I will catch you all in the next video. [00:58:32] Speaker 7: The Ichimoku's guiding light. [00:58:47] Speaker 1: Blue cloud trading through the night. [00:58:52] Speaker ?: I'll see you next time. I'll see you next time.