HAS TECH CORRECTED ENOUGH? (06/11) Stock Market Analysis

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Blue cloud trading through the night. [00:00:06] Speaker 2: As we hang on to gains this morning, let's get to the judge who's back at post nine. [00:00:13] Speaker 3: Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner, front and center this hour, the latest on the tech reset. The space is trying to bounce today. The committee also taking its positions ahead of the SpaceX IPO pricing tonight, trading tomorrow. We'll have the very latest, of course, coming up. Joining me for the hour, Josh Brown, Jenny Harrington, Rob Seachin. Check the markets here. Told you this bounce is trying to happen in tech. Two-thirds of 1% for the NASDAQ. That's where we really have been focused. We're right around 7,300 for the S&P. Queues are down 4% this week. That's notable. NASDAQ's down a couple of percentage points this week. The SOX has been down for the past five days, the epicenter of a lot of the selling. So what's going on? That's the question we want to ask. Jonathan Kerensky, BTIG, says today, At this point, our assumption is that this is still a positioning unwind, not a regime change. But we don't think it's fully run its course. As a result, we would suggest you remain seated with your seatbelts fastened. [00:01:16] Speaker 4: I can hear you okay, and I've got program. [00:01:18] Speaker 3: As we expect more near-term turbulence. What do you think? [00:01:23] Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's fair. It's too soon to say, oh, that's it. We saw the top of tech. Never going to be as good again. People have made that call over the last three years on multiple occasions. And then pie right in the face. So Jonathan's a technician. I don't think a technician wants to say a rocky 30-day period is like the end of what's been a 36-month full market. And I don't want to say that either. However, MAG7 are now, as a group, negative on the year. We had blow-off tops in Korean stocks, memory stocks. You see the semis bouncing 3% today. Not a ton of conviction. Not a lot of volume behind these moves. The software rally that added fuel to the fire, well, that's unwound very quickly. At their peak a few days ago, the software names got to within 11% of their year highs. Now they're backed into a 23% drawdown. A lot of broken hopes and dreams in that space. So I'm looking at the action in Oracle. I'm looking at some of these unwinds, continuing to unwind far below where I thought the unwinds would go. And I'm basically sitting here saying, why tech right now? It's too messy, technically. There's so many other things that are working. I want a spotlight. We talked about Casey's. This is both a porterhouse constituent and the best stocks in the market. We've been talking about it all year. It's literally pizza in Nebraska. I don't even know what the story is here beyond just higher gas prices, more revenue. Look what the market did to this stock yesterday. Went up 15% on earnings. It is the best performing name this week in the S&P 500. There are a lot of Casey's general stores in the tape. We don't need to just be minutely focused on the microns every single day. I think there are a lot of ways. Starbucks is up 7% over the last week. Darden's up 8%. Best Buy, believe it or not, up 7%. Kenview up 7%. There are places to make money. There are winners in every sector in the market. Inside of biotech, up 7% over the last week. So that's what I'm focused on, Judge. I'm not as focused on how long will this tech on wine go for. It hasn't gotten me out of bed yet. They're not down enough for me to say, that's it. We're good, and I don't think things are as dire as the bears do. The percentage that they're off their 52-week high. [00:03:47] Speaker 3: I'm talking about the Mag 7. Microsoft's 27% off its 52-week high. Meta's down 27% off of its 52-week high. Amazon's down 12%. Nvidia's down. They're all down considerably off of their 52-week highs. It shows you the selling that's taken place in the very top heaviest part of the market. I don't know how you, Rob, feel about opportunities to buy some of the dips at this point. I think we're all kind of waiting for the dip buyers to show their hand. And there's not a lot of conviction yet, as we said off the top of the broadcast. [00:04:25] Speaker 6: I view that as a really healthy thing, that there's not a lot of conviction yet. But again, I would fall into the camp that many of these have not fallen enough. And keep in mind that we own a lot of these. We are talking to clients about building positions into our growth portfolios, into our dividend portfolios at right times. And sometimes that takes a 5% reset, which the only area we got that was in tech, right? And so we took advantage of that. We'll talk about that later in the show. But it was much more surgical than typically. There's no doubt that this has been an earnings-driven market year-to-date. And what's done well should have done well, because that's where the implications of earnings growth have been the highest. What's interesting, and what they were talking about, is the re-rating that we see. You know, 40% of the stocks in the S&P are down for the year. It's just a really interesting dichotomy. So I do view it as a little healthy that this is happening. [00:05:27] Speaker 3: Why don't you think that these names have fallen enough if you point to the fact that it's been an earnings-driven move to begin with? The reason why the Microns of the world and the Marvels of the world ran up the way they did straight up into the right is because their earnings presented a new paradigm for those stocks. Correct. It forced people to understand that they were underestimating the earnings momentum that they appeared to have. So if they've pulled back, what makes you believe that they haven't pulled back far enough? [00:06:01] Speaker 5: Because the tokenomics discussion has entered the chat. That's the real answer. [00:06:07] Speaker 6: Here is the thing that I think. When you price a terminal value and you price it off an exceedingly high earnings period, which some of those earnings were driven by sales, right? There was still healthy, organic earnings growth, but there was still profits being brought in by sales of privates. And I think sometimes we can pull forward enthusiasm into price, if that makes sense. It does. Is that what we did? Is that what we did with the Microns of the world? We did briefly. Now we're going to re-rate and re-underwrite for what I believe is a more sustainable earnings growth trajectory. And I think it's going to be a little more broad-based. And I think you can still be constructive on equities. But let's be honest, we're entering a seasonally weak period. You have geopolitical tensions that are pressing on rates. You're in a quieter earnings period. And so usually you have something come along to save the day in the interim. You have midterm elections coming up. And you have a couple big IPOs that are coming. And the reality of it is supply is coming onto the market. And so this is just digestion. It's not negativity. And I want to react really to Oracle, for example, announcing a spend. [00:07:27] Speaker ?: Yeah. [00:07:27] Speaker 6: If you run a private company, and this is why I love investing in private companies, you don't need to manage quarter to quarter. So when you see a long-term opportunity that is going to change the ROE characteristics forward of your business, as we do all the time at NewEdge, we will make that investment even if there's a quarterly impact. A company like Oracle is going to come out and say, we are committed to this spend because we know this is an arms race, and we are going to win. And they actually had good numbers. I don't own Oracle, but I'm using them as an example. And the market punishes that. Guess what? That gives you an opportunity to get in there and fix that. [00:08:07] Speaker 3: Well, you could say it's rightful punishment. I mean, by these equity offerings, it's dilutive, obviously. People had already been concerned with Oracle's debt raise. Now it's an equity offering. The point being, their spending machine is ramping up, not down. [00:08:25] Speaker 5: May I? The fundamental thing that's changed in the last two weeks is this discussion about the price of compute. That's right. The value of these workloads. And we're now going to, I think, the second half story. You'll see, this desk, closing bell, it'll be filled with people saying what I'm about to tell you right now. What's going to happen here is we're going to start to delineate between premium usage of compute versus cheap, dirty usage of compute that should not require the same pricing on compute and the same amount, the same volume of compute. So, me looking up a recipe for fettuccine bolognese should not be taking place in the same part of the data center using the same chips as NASA trying to calculate the trajectory of a satellite launch. But that is literally what the AI build-out has started as. It's just this, like… But it's starting to bifurcate. Correct. And now, and now, right, that's exactly right. And now, what we're going to start to see is haves and have-nots. We're going to see Adam Smith economics start to, like, weigh on all of this activity. Companies starting to get rational about, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Why are we underwriting all of this AI usage that's just, like, blanket, yeah, sure, put whatever you want in the query and we'll consider all that compute the same. And so, what you're seeing in the stock prices, which is, we're not a tech show, we're a stock show. What you're seeing in the stock prices is, we think, are we really going to have memory demand on the scale that we thought we would? Are we really going to have chip usage in the same way that we have? And all of a sudden, as rational economics take hold, you're going to start to see a rethink in all of this earnings growth and whether or not we think it's… [00:10:18] Speaker 3: Well, hold on, let's get Jenny, I want to hear from Jenny, because, I mean, if you were to say rational economics, I mean… [00:10:25] Speaker 6: No, rational optimization of compute. [00:10:29] Speaker 3: No, I understand, but the whole point is supply-demand, if you want to go down to the core of economics. But Jensen Wong's out over the last weekend talking about the memory shortage lasting for years, to answer your question. Is he just throwing that into the wind? [00:10:46] Speaker 5: Do we think OpenAI will come public later in September, losing $1.22 for every dollar in revenue? Right. I don't think so. [00:10:53] Speaker 7: To that point, you just saw today, or maybe it was last night, OpenAI start to say, like, hey, we're going to be more competitive on pricing. That's huge, Citadel put out a piece, and they named it tokenomics, I'll tweet it out later, but here's the bottom line that they say. We, hence, are going to see growing signs of a bifurcation in frontier versus everyday AI usage. And I think that's the way to think of it, frontier versus everyday. That's sort of Josh's point, right? Yeah, exactly. [00:11:18] Speaker 5: Fettuccine versus satellites. Taking it further, taking it further, you're going to see a futures market in compute spring up, probably out of Chicago or somewhere where people understand how to price commodities futures. You will absolutely not just see this runaway train of endless compute for everyone for free. It's just, it's not sustainable, it won't be sustained, and now you're going to see a rethink on a lot of stocks. [00:11:42] Speaker 7: I'll tell you what surprises me, though. What surprises me is that this is happening now. I thought we were still six or nine months away from it. It was obvious that it was coming, but everything in this space is moving so fast, it's mind-boggling. [00:11:53] Speaker 3: So, including Oracle, Jim Labenthal is joining us. We needed to hear from somebody who's in this stock today. Just given the pullback, the questions that have already existed in this name, I appreciate you joining us. Just want to have a brief chat with you on what you're doing, if anything, with this name and how you're thinking about this move after earnings. [00:12:13] Speaker 4: Well, I'm with Rob on this, and I thought he summarized it pretty well, which is to say you've got to spend money to make money. I do see this as an opportunity with the stock down 11%, and I'm adding to it. I'm also saving some dry powder because I'm not sure that this is going to be the bottom, but I do think this is the opportunity. Now, when I say you've got to spend money to make money, what the company is saying is that they are hitting record revenue, record OCI. That's Oracle Cloud Infrastructure Growth, and they see that continuing in the years ahead. So, they're predicting, whether they're right or wrong, whether you believe them or not, this is what they're predicting, 28% compound annual growth rate over the next five years in earnings per share, 28%. And you're getting that today at 22 times forward earnings. By the way, if you look at fiscal year 28, just remembering that they're on a May end of the year, they're at about 16 times. I tell you that's a bargain. But if you want to take the other side and say, hey, you know what, I don't think management is right, or maybe the cost of compute is going to come down, and therefore Oracle's revenues are going to come down with it, that's fine. That's what makes a market. I'm a buyer. I think that the track record of this management shows that when they say what they're going to do, they actually exceed it. So, I'm pretty happy with getting added to it at this price. All right. [00:13:31] Speaker 3: So, I just want to make something real clear. So, you did add to it, or you're going to add to it, or what's the deal? [00:13:38] Speaker 4: Yep. I added to it today, but I also saved dry powder to add to it more in the days to come because I'm not sure that today is the bottom. But I definitely want to make a statement here that at this price right now, you can buy it, and I think you're going to make good money from it. Rob, there's a hint for you. You were talking positively about it, but you said you didn't own it. [00:13:59] Speaker 3: Well, he's in some respects doing what you're doing, but in the names that are in his universe. So, I'm going to let you go, and I appreciate you calling in and giving us the update or showing your face, actually, and doing it like that. We'll see you back on the set, Jimmy, soon. So, Rob, you look at some names, Texas Instruments, okay? Chips, obviously, have been, you know, unsettled. You bought that name fresh, new buy. [00:14:23] Speaker 6: That was a fresh, new position. [00:14:25] Speaker 3: Okay, and you bought more service now, and you've sold Salesforce. So, those are three critical moves within the context of this conversation. Take me through that. [00:14:35] Speaker 6: Yeah, so, listen, we have been overweight to semis. It's been one of the great catalysts for the outperformance that we've had pretty significantly in both our growth and, frankly, in our dividend portfolio. But, you know, Broadcom was in there for a bit, if you remember, and we've owned it. So, you know, TXN, interesting, world leader in unglamorous chips, cars, factories, defense, and it's emerging as a critical piece of AI data power regulation. And, you know, I would say, you know, they also own their own manufacturing, which is a really unique component. They're not… [00:15:15] Speaker 3: Give me a year to date on Texan, guys, please. Go ahead, Rob, sorry. [00:15:20] Speaker 6: Yeah. Yeah, there you go. So, it's… And looking at the price, it's pretty expensive, has a low dividend, outside the norm for us. But we're trying to focus on where we can find demand that's growing at an above-average pace. And we think they're there in the analog space. This is exactly the setup where we want to buy a business like this. [00:15:44] Speaker 3: So, so much for the rebound that we've been seeing in software, right? I mean, it's given like half of it back. I mean, a lot of these names continue to turn lower. So, there doesn't appear to be any conviction that all of a sudden software's out of the woods. So, you sold Salesforce, so there's been critical questions about the two names that I had mentioned. Salesforce, so-called SaaSpocalypse, right? And then ServiceNow. The trajectory of the charts looks somewhat similar, not identical. Their stories are a little bit different, obviously. But nonetheless, they've been caught in the vortex of the questions about AI killing software. Salesforce down 37% year-to-date. Guys, give me service. I want to see that, too, year-to-date. There it is. So, they're more or less the same. Yeah. Take me through the decision-making here. [00:16:35] Speaker 6: Two different trades. One was to add to a position. The other was to take a tax loss. So, we were not down in ServiceNow because of the entry point, but we were down in Salesforce. So, we wanted to take a loss and move. Listen, Salesforce is a great franchise. We use it. Growth is the problem. So, we want to upgrade the durability of our portfolio to ServiceNow. And if you look at ServiceNow, 90% of big companies run their internal operations off of ServiceNow. Okay? It is critical. And I think we've lumped a lot of software as a service into all one bucket initially. When there is truly critical infrastructure that needs to run, they're the air traffic controller for the whole corporate IT stack. And so, we just think they have a little better of a moat. And we think they're going to be an AI beneficiary and not an AI casualty as they are building apps on top of their model. And we're buying more on the D rating. If you look, stock is down 50% from its peak. It trades at a 24 forward PE. That's a 60% discount to its own internal multiple. So, in all aspects of your corporate infrastructure, IT, security, compliance, all layer on this. So, and the partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic let users build on top of that. And frankly, I'm seeing that in my business. So, that's a little bit of an experience. [00:18:18] Speaker 5: I don't trust any of these stocks outside of cybersecurity. I own some software. They act like garbage. I don't expect that to change this summer. The problem for these companies, no matter how well they're executing, and no matter how much investment they themselves are making into an AI future, the market does not believe them. The market doesn't believe they will be able to roll contracts at the same pricing or higher pricing. And here's your problem. This has been a one-way bull market, SaaS, enterprise SaaS, for 15 years, every category. And the bigger the companies were, the stickier their contracts were. And that's been true, and it's been a great trade. The problem is a lot of the earnings growth has not been about adding new heads. Exactly. It's been about adding pricing. By the way, I don't love the memory stocks. A lot of the earnings growth is from pricing, not volumes. So how, what are we going to do in a world where companies are going to get really good at utilizing less headcount and now have the chutzpah to say to their sales rep, yeah, I don't care that the contract's up next month. I'm not giving you another five-year deal. I'll give you another one-year deal because I got 500 people in the basement playing with Claude, and I'm not convinced you're doing something for me that I can't do for free. And that is what the market is telling you on these failed rallies. Nobody believes that these companies have as good a story this year as they have last year. [00:19:49] Speaker 6: But that's what makes a market. What they're questioning is the terminal value of these businesses. So when you look at forward cash flows and you try to identify what's a business worth, and you might not be, it's the same thing in the private equity names. If you're not able to renew at the rate that you have right now, markets immediately discount that down. Yeah, and that's already happened. [00:20:12] Speaker 7: But here's the thing. [00:20:13] Speaker 6: My point exactly, it's already happened, but it's not over. [00:20:15] Speaker 7: No, no, no, no, it's not over. It hasn't fully happened. And we keep sniffing around this space over and over because when you see an entire industry where everything's down 50% and 60%, there should be opportunity. And we dig in over and over and we're like, great, it's down 60%. It's still not cheap enough. It's still 30 times. It's still 20 times. It's still too much for the uncertainty in the future and the growth that's not that impressive. [00:20:36] Speaker 5: These tell-offs also started from above market multiples. Way above. It's not like these stocks were market. In 2020, maybe. [00:20:43] Speaker 7: No, no, no. They were like 60 times and 40 times and 50 times before this. [00:20:48] Speaker 5: I want to, look, I want to buy stocks that are down 60%. Me too. So join the parties. [00:20:53] Speaker 7: Down 60%, they need to then have a compelling valuation, which most of the software stuff can build down. [00:20:57] Speaker 6: Or they have to have a compelling strategy, Jenny, to unlock value on top of their ecosystem, which is effectively a moat that allows them to build that. [00:21:06] Speaker 7: Here's the thing. Moat is a dangerous word to use in this AI world that we're living in. [00:21:11] Speaker 6: So you think one guy in their basement with some AI is going to be able to displace service now? Good luck. I don't believe it. [00:21:18] Speaker 7: I think at the margin competition will come in. And if at the margin competition comes in, then Josh's point hold. I don't think we're surprised. [00:21:25] Speaker 5: I don't think anyone's seeing one guy in the basement. If there's a guy named Claude in his basement, maybe. We're saying anthropic. We're not. Okay. We're not saying that these companies are completely displaceable. So, you know. [00:21:37] Speaker 7: Well, that's the beauty of the business. [00:21:38] Speaker 3: It is. And I have. Now, how much of what we've seen recently in tech is due to positioning around SpaceX? Prices tonight, debut tomorrow on the NASDAQ, which is why I told Leslie Picker we'd be seeing a lot of her this week. And here we are. And she's on the set at Post 9 to give us the very latest. [00:21:59] Speaker 5: Oh, is there an IPO this week? Do you think? [00:22:01] Speaker 7: I don't know. Leslie, are you wearing that bright green to try and, like, you know, manifest the share price? [00:22:07] Speaker 1: To be totally honest, I pulled out an orange dress this morning for the next, and it needed to go to the dry cleaner. So I got the next bright one instead. All right. But, yes, channeling all the green vibes, I guess. [00:22:21] Speaker 3: Are there green vibes, do you think, around this? [00:22:23] Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know at this point in time. I couldn't tell you. [00:22:27] Speaker 3: Interesting, right, that you normally would have sort of an idea that, yeah, it feels like there would be a lot of green vibes. It's four times over. Subscribed. This one's hard to figure because of the pricing, the demand, the fact that it's been private. [00:22:41] Speaker 5: It's 3% of the float. Of course it's going to pop. They're engineering a pop. Am I the only person that understands this? Do you think any underwriters like this go down? It's not going. All right. I'm not a guarantee, of course. It's 3% of the float. [00:22:55] Speaker 1: There are plenty of examples of IPOs with small floats that did not pop on the first day of trading. So I don't think you need to look at them. [00:23:01] Speaker 5: How many had Elon Musk involved? Let me ask you this question. That's the question. There are 30 firms on the cover of the book. There's every firm on Wall Street, including fictional firms, like literally firms from movies. I hear you. There's nobody involved in this that's going to say, oh, I guess we'll see what happens. [00:23:20] Speaker 7: So are you going to buy it then if you're this positive? [00:23:22] Speaker 5: And by the way, the other thing they're doing, shrinking the window, there'll be 90 minutes of trading max probably on opening day. [00:23:29] Speaker 1: That's possible. Yes, it is going to be a very short day. The other technical element that is bringing people to the table, I'm told, is this idea of, and we've talked about it a lot, of the fast tracking of the mega cap IPOs into various indexes. We have some new data looking at how that could represent about 30 percent passive funds could represent 30 percent of the float after two weeks of trading. You've got potentially 30 percent for retail, which leaves just 40 percent for active investors. So what does that mean for price discovery is a big question here. Obviously, the first two weeks are expected to be very volatile, given what you mentioned about the small float, given the index fund implication here. But, you know, you talk to people and they say, oh, $1.8 trillion, this is really steep on what we've seen in terms of historical revenue of about $19 billion. Then you talk to other people who say, but this is a trade that's set up to succeed, given the dynamic with these index inclusion rules and the fast tracking. So I think a lot of it depends on the momentum they get tomorrow, even if it is 90 minutes of trading. The other thing I would say, too, is that if you do have a larger proportion of retail, nothing's ever been tested at this size before. This is three times the largest U.S. IPO that we've ever seen. So when we hear these oversubscription numbers, we don't know what four times means on a $75 billion offering because law of large numbers is a really big deal. So is four times good? Is four times bad? I don't know, Facebook was 20 times oversubscribed. [00:24:58] Speaker 5: I'm getting text messages that are like, my buddy's at UBS or my friend, my broker, Morgan Stanley, they said they'd get me stock. They're saying it's four times oversubscribed. I'm old enough to remember 10 days ago when we were sitting on this desk the day Cerebris went public. And what we were saying is the deal is 20 times oversubscribed. Pull up a chart of that thing since it went public. So that amount of times oversubscribed thing, that doesn't move me in any direction. [00:25:27] Speaker 8: Premier gives Waymo a recurring revenue product, more pricing power, and another reason for riders to stay inside of its ecosystem. Now, the company wouldn't tell me when its Uber or Lyft contracts expire or whether more are coming. But Waymo is making clear that it has two businesses, the driverless system and then the consumer layer on top of that, with Premier really pushing it deeper into the lane that Uber and Lyft would much rather own. Scott? [00:25:53] Speaker 3: Okay. I mean, Josh, this is the issue that's been the overhang on Uber the whole time, right? Robo taxi competition, Tesla, whomever else. [00:26:03] Speaker 5: What do you think? Well, I mean, Tesla doesn't actually have robo taxis. They have a plan to, but they're human drivers. And the number of cars that they have on the street, they round down to very few. So it's really about Waymo. And every time Waymo has news, Uber stock price falls. I think Uber has more than 50 million people now paying them $10 a month for Uber One. And Waymo's coming in at a price point that's three times higher. It seems like they're going to do more in terms of free cancellations. And I would imagine if that's successful, Uber may re-examine what they're offering at $10. They may say, let's offer more and do a more generous cancellation rebate back or whatever. But this is all to be expected. And I don't think anyone's truly surprised about it. [00:26:51] Speaker 3: No, but is this a robo taxi chart? I mean, is that what that is? [00:26:54] Speaker 5: 100%. Because Uber has never been more profitable, has never had better growth, has never had better economics. But again, people look at this and say, I don't know yet. I feel like if Waymo captures a huge portion of the market, Uber may be in trouble with its human drivers. They're looking past the fact that Uber has more to gain from autonomous cars than any other company out there because a huge part of the take rate is going to the human driver. So Uber is working on its autonomous network. Their approach is not to own the cars, but rather to have a huge ecosystem of other players. We'll see who wins. But I'm a shareholder in Uber. [00:27:35] Speaker 7: But I think that's the thing. I don't think it's we'll see who wins. And I think that that's been one of the challenges with the debate. [00:27:41] Speaker 5: You know who wins? [00:27:42] Speaker 7: No, I don't think there's one winner. I think that we've looked at it as Uber's gain. I mean, Uber's pain as Waymo's gain. And it's not that. I also think that the addressable market here is bigger than we can imagine. I agree with all of that. And like we all have teenage kids, right? What are they doing? They're not driving to parties anymore. That's a whole market that's like barely touched. [00:28:02] Speaker 5: The bears would answer you and say, we were told that there would be multiple players in search. There's one. [00:28:08] Speaker 7: That's so different. And that one is Google. And with the aging demographic, they're getting more and more comfortable to start using ride share, to start using Uber, to start using Waymo. I just think it's an enormous market. I do not think this is the winner takes all. You know, even Google. [00:28:24] Speaker 5: That's the bet Dara is making is that it will not be winner takes all. There will be fleets of autonomous cars for everyone. Right. [00:28:31] Speaker 7: And by the way, Uber is still trading at 24 times. They're still minting like $16 billion of free cash. You know, they're still very profitable. I don't have a problem with $23. [00:28:38] Speaker 6: I'd rather own Google with the optionality of Waymo inside Google. [00:28:44] Speaker 3: Why do you think that the stock deserves to trade at that valuation, which is, you know, mildly above the market? [00:28:51] Speaker 7: Yeah, it's like a little above market because there is uncertainty. [00:28:54] Speaker 3: 35% growth? [00:28:55] Speaker 7: That's why? Okay, because there is uncertainty out there. We're not really sure. I think that there's been a misperception of that there's a winner, right? And that's put some pressure on it. There is competition coming in. [00:29:06] Speaker 3: I'm not saying it doesn't deserve it. I just want you to tell me that when you say you don't have a problem with the multiple, I just want you to tell our viewers why you don't have a problem with it. That's all. [00:29:13] Speaker 7: Because if you think about Uber four years ago or five years ago, there was significantly less competition. Now there's more competition. And so that's putting pressure on the multiple. It's fine. You know, if they keep growing it 35 times, then the multiple should expand. But we're in a moment where competition's entered and shareholders are still trying to figure out, okay, how does that flesh out? You know, where does the dust settle on this? [00:29:34] Speaker 5: Uber is delivering food. Uber Eats is half the business. It's a huge driver for the rides business. [00:29:39] Speaker 7: There's competition there, too. [00:29:41] Speaker 5: Not from Waymo. And then the second thing is Uber is taking its membership and pushing into areas like travel, booking hotel rooms, et cetera. I'm not saying that Waymo can't do that. I'm saying they're not currently doing that. So it's obviously Waymo is a real competitor where Lyft wasn't, and the landscape has changed. And that's why this is not 40 times earnings with 35% growth. It's 24 times earnings. It's a substantial discount relative to the growth rate. But we all understand why. These are real competitors. [00:30:14] Speaker 7: And a fair valuation to pay. You could buy it here. [00:30:16] Speaker 5: Got to bounce. [00:30:16] Speaker 3: Got to bounce. Best stocks in the market from Josh coming up next. We're back. Josh Brown's best stocks in the market. The spotlight is today on which name? [00:30:25] Speaker 5: We're going to talk about travelers, ticker symbol TRV. If you believe what I believe, which is that the market is going to start rewarding a different element of the AI trade, market's going to start saying, well, all right, everyone's spending. Who's spending wisely? Who actually has something to show for all their consumption of compute? They're going to look at names like travelers. And I think that's exactly the process that's happening right now in this rotation. Management had a 21% jump in Q4 2025 underwriting income. And they pointed directly at AI-driven efficiency gains. In February, they launched an AI claim assistant that they built on top of open AI models to handle auto damage claim calls. If you think about a company that's got as much to gain in utilizing AI, like a Travelers, you can quickly see the market is saying, oh, wait a minute. Maybe the costs here, maybe the efficiencies here, are actually meaningful to the bottom line, and that's what's happening. They also just announced the deal with Anthropic. They've got all kinds of AI things happening, and not just experiments. They are looking at their profitability and telling the street, this is AI, this is AI, this is AI. I think that this is the next leg, the second half of this year. The AI consumers, the companies themselves. So I'm very excited about that theme. I think the stock plays well there. Let's talk about the technicals. If you're a true technician, you're waiting for a break above 310. That's been resistance. But I want to point out the risk management piece here. Four times, keep this chart up, four times this stock has kissed that 200-day. Look how fast the buyers came in, exactly where they needed to. This is a very solid accumulation story every time they come in. That's about 288, 289. So that's your pivot point. A close below that level on a weekly basis, checking it out on a Friday afternoon, that tells you something here has changed. The buyers are not coming in. But until that happens, I think it could be long. And if it breaks 310, look out above. There are no sellers. [00:32:33] Speaker 7: So if you want Josh's argument on where can you get, like, a really great second derivative play on AI beneficiary, the insurance space is perfect, right? It helps them with risk management. It helps them with documentation. So here are two juicy dividend ones from our international strategy. You've got AXA, which trades at nine times earnings with a 6.3% dividend yield, grows at 7% to 8% earnings. Zurich, 14 times, almost a 6% yield, also grows at about 18 times earnings. Sorry, 8 times earnings. [00:33:02] Speaker 3: We've got some more committee moves, by the way. We'll take a quick break. Financials, some moves. So you've trimmed wells, bought more MasterCard, but I want to center in on Morgan Stanley, which is a fresh buy. Correct. Right? Brand new. [00:33:14] Speaker 6: I think it's a result of financials have been really weak. We know that. There are new relative lows below the 200-day. The flatter curve is driving a lot of that. So we actually like the fee earners, not the spread earners, if that makes sense. And those net interest margins are being challenged. And, you know, Morgan Stanley is a company that has clearly executed and performed well. They balanced out their streams and migrating from predominantly in investment banking and capital markets business to investment banking and wealth management and asset management business. And they don't depend on lending profits like some of these others do. They've seen double-digit top-line growth there. They're trading at 17 times 4% with a 2% dividend. To me, if you're going to be in the space, which we generally always are, you want to be where there's the most cyclical tailwinds. And, oh, by the way, there's a lot of optionality to capital markets activity starting to pick up. So you've got this nice base recurring fee. [00:34:20] Speaker 3: What else do you own here? You obviously trimmed well as you bought more MasterCard, but of the big banks, you own JPM? You don't own Goldman? Do not own Goldman. Okay. Fine. What's your final trade? [00:34:30] Speaker 6: Lilly, P has re-rated the 29 from 50, and you get 30% top-line growth. [00:34:38] Speaker 7: American Express. They made positive comments at the Morgan Stanley Conference this week. Good first quarter, second quarter's tracking well, too. [00:34:44] Speaker 5: Live Nation on the verge of a new 52-week high. Huge upgrade for Morgan Stanley this week. Raise the roof. All right. The exchanges now. [00:34:50] Speaker 3: All right, Brian, thanks so much. Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Scott Wapner, live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This make or break out begins with what else? The markets, this late-day surge, and where things really stand with tech still very much unsettled. We'll ask BlackRock's Rick Reeder. He'll join us in just a moment right here at Post 9. In the meantime, we'll show you the scorecard. Looks like this. We're already having a pretty decent day, but now we are decidedly higher. We took a leg higher mid-afternoon. The president posting that he calls off those strikes against Iran that were scheduled to happen this evening. Market jumped, as you see. It's pretty descriptive on the screen there. Oil falling on that news. Tells a similar story. Industrials, materials among the better-performing sectors today, though everything, frankly, right now, but two sectors, energy, comm services in the green. So, really, the tide over this day has turned a bit. Oracle, standout name, not for great reasons. Stock's down almost 10% after earnings, news of a coming equity offering. Stock that's been in the crosshairs around the AI trade for a while, takes a leg lower this afternoon. Does take us to our talk of the tape. Come to you now. Your notes, I'm guessing, came to our producers before the headlines moved about possible legitimate end to this war and then the commentary from the president. So, how does that shape your view on how you see things here? [00:36:14] Speaker 2: Well, our thoughts aren't primarily driven by the conflict in the Middle East right now. We think there's a lot of uncertainty still that remains in terms of the sustainability of the CapEx spending that's taking place. And the multiplier effect, I think, that's rippling through the economy on that is probably a little bit underestimated. We think the AI trade here is probably more of a hold. We like the action today, we welcome it, and it's nice to see. There's a lot of enthusiasm about tomorrow's IPO, but we do think that it's not the time for investors to go full throttle here. [00:36:47] Speaker 3: So, why do you have concerns about the CapEx when not a single company in that orbit would have you believe anything other than the story that has been told and the narrative that has been pervasive and understood by investors? What's the problem there? [00:37:04] Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I think when the world's largest cash cows, Alphabet, comes and taps the equity markets, you do have to pause to wonder whether or not the spending is sustainable. And you have a lot of companies right now that are full steam ahead. I don't believe that a year from now we're going to have this many companies full steam ahead spending. So, I think we're going to level off. And I think that multiplier effect that's having a big impact on the economy, a big impact on earnings throughout the whole supply chain of AI and the build-out of AI is probably going to come under a bit of moderation in the coming quarters here. So, we're not negative. We're just more cautious, I think, than turn more cautious in the recent weeks. [00:37:49] Speaker 3: Because, I mean, you're doubting the durability of the story? [00:37:54] Speaker 2: Well, look, you have a few things happening at once. You have major companies talking about limiting token usage by employees. You have token prices coming down a bit. You have talk of some of the major model providers cutting prices. I think these are early anecdotes that perhaps the peak thrust is behind us. If we're thinking about that second derivative and the positive change, we've seen a lot in the past few quarters. We think we're probably going to level off here in the coming quarters. [00:38:24] Speaker 3: You've got about 30 seconds left. I mean, does that mean that you would move money out of tech and into other areas of the market that are either perceived to be value or would lend one to think that the broadening trade is going to work away from technology? [00:38:38] Speaker 2: I do hope the broadening trade works away from technology. That would be a very healthy sign for the market if that took place. If the conflict in the Middle East does get resolved, that would probably be helpful for that broadening trade. I think there's been a lot of nice money made in technology here, and it probably pays investors to think about that we're so fine. At least we're balancing a lot of portfolios that have probably gotten out of balance in the last couple of months. [00:39:02] Speaker 3: All right, John, we'll talk to you soon. That's young Yamaha joining us. The bell is going to ring, and it's going to ring a strong game for the majors today. Certainly picked up late afternoon news about a potential end of the war. Welcome to Blue Cloud Trading. [00:39:20] Speaker 9: I'm George. It's Thursday. It's June 11th, 528 p.m. Eastern Time as I'm recording this video. And in this video, we're going to go over a number of stocks that were discussed on today's episode of Halftime Report. And the closing bell there. Here's the list, guys. There's about 14 ETFs in here. We're talking about the Dow, the Eurostox, Russell, SMH, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, pretty much the big names there. OilK, which dropped actually. It was one of the few that dropped today. We're going to look at about 21 stocks and ETFs all mixed up in here that were discussed on the show. There's Casey's, Eli Lilly. All right, Live Nation, Morgan Stanley, Amazon. You get the drift. There's a whole bunch, including NVIDIA, Oracle, Microsoft. And then we've got some member requests down here below. We've got three stocks that we're going to look at. AMPG, UAN, and Moderna. Okay, let's do this. Let's go ahead and look and see what happened today. At the end of the day, we closed up 1.86% for the Dow. What's interesting is price gapped up in the morning and stayed steady for a little while, creating this little rectangle pattern. Price broke through it, continued to the upside. NASDAQ did something very similar here. Okay, it was basically around, I don't know, 130 or so. It started to move up, up 2.54%. The S&P 500 was up 1.75%. And the Russell 2000 up the most 2.96, almost 3% today. Is this going to be the turnaround for the markets? We're going to try to figure it out, looking at the technicals, in just a few moments. But let's take a look at the heat map today. Very green. Very green. Except for Microsoft, which was down 1.77%. Oracle down 8.53% today. The energy stocks were all down today. Majority of them. Except for some like SLB, BKR, and Alliburton. Basic materials were up as a sector. We also saw the healthcare stocks do well, consumer cyclical stocks do well, industrials were very green. There's Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Some of the software stocks did not do so well. Like CRM, now Adobe, ADP. Maybe because they were discussed on the halftime report. No, I'm just joking. Applovin, down 2.92%. Let's take a look at the groups. One day performance. Basic materials up 4.33%, followed by the industrials 3.58%, technology 3.21%. So interestingly enough, even though technology was up quite a bit today, it still did not surpass the percentage gain from basic materials and industrials. The consumer cyclicals were up, so was financial and healthcare, energy, and consumer defensives were the laggards today. Here is the one-week performance with consumer defensives up 3.65%, and technology is still down for the week, 5.56%. That's a big drop that we had this last week. So let's take a look at what we're going to do here. By the way, this is, again, my channel, Blue Cloud Trading. If you want to check out some of the links, make sure that you click on the click more right here. 10 more links, click on that, and you can get access to a lot of different links that I have on my channel. Let's go ahead and start off with the strongest ETFs, because four of them, four of the 14, actually got a blue flag today. They look pretty bullish here on the daily and weekly time frame. So when I get a stock or ETF that basically fits all the criteria that we're looking for with this indicator, think of this as a filter, the Ichimoku. What we're looking for is for price to be above the green line, which is the 9 period, the midpoint to the last 9 periods, above the 26 period, the midpoint to the last 26 periods, the slower moving average here. We want price to be above the Ichimoku cloud. You can see it actually projects into the future as well. We want that. We want the Syncrospan A, the light-colored blue line of the cloud, above the Syncrospan B, the purple one. And we want the Chikospan here basically above price. What is the Chikospan? It's the current price projected 26 periods ago in a line form. And we want to see where that is in relation to the candle 26 periods ago, that candle. If it's above it, it's bullish. If it's under, it's bearish. So we've got all of the elements here in the daily chart looking very bullish with price finally breaking above. And in fact, it basically gapped up and continued moving up. So that's very bullish. Let's take a look at the weekly chart. Staying above that 505.30, which we have been this whole entire time, which is good, right? Are we out of the woods yet? I mean, for the Dow, it looks very strong. It does look very strong. But the directional movement index, you know, it took a beating here. And so the red line is still technically above the green line, right? So, yes, the Ichimoku is giving us a buy signal here on the daily chart. But we're not getting confirmation from the momentum here yet, quite yet. What about the FEZ, the Hero Stocks 50? That was up 3.41%. That looks great here in the daily chart above the moving averages in the cloud. And also, if we look at the weekly chart, same thing. The problem with this one is the fact that we are currently, right, we are currently still under the 69.44 level. It's a monthly level. This prior high here, going back to February 27th. So, we need to see something happen here. We need to break out above that level. We're really close to it. We're just less than 1% away. So, why not wait to get that confirmation? IWM, which is the Russell 2000. Here it is in the weekly chart. Very bullish. We can see how it pulled back this week, came close to the Tenkinson, and rebounded. Here's a daily chart. So, there's the pullback. And as I was saying yesterday and the day before and the day before that, we were finding support here on the 26th period. A lot of times that will happen, and then you get a bounce. Of course, everything is completely dependent on the news, right? And so, once the news change and the sentiment of the market changes and there's more strength in the markets, then, obviously, the price is going to move up. And we're going to see it in the chart. And the idea here is to, we want to get an assessment here of the strength of this move. It was up 2.96%. The volume was relatively high. But, again, the directional movement index is going to, you know, we've got to add a setting of 9, which is a faster setting. That hasn't materialized yet as a buy signal. And we're going to have some resistance around 2.92.88, this prior high here, okay? Which is less than 1% away. You might want to wait for a breakout again and see more confirmation down below. How about the SMH, Semiconductor ETF? Same situation. It actually recovered today, where yesterday closed under the 26th period. It never got under this level. Let me show you guys right here. The low of this candle. Now, as I mentioned, this was a bullish candle because the buyers stepped in and pushed price up. The very next day, price gapped down and dropped. Okay? Basically, the shorts, the sellers, were in control yesterday. You look at what happened, though, today, and now it's reversed again. So, it's back and forth, back and forth, and we're basically still stuck in this little consolidation area. All right? So, it's not conclusive yet. It's not conclusive yet. But it's positive because it moved up 6.75%. Copper, COPX. This is the Copper Miners ETF. That one emerged back above the cloud. What's interesting, it re-entered this symmetrical triangle. Up 7.37%. Very interesting that we had this pop up again. So, will this be short-lived? You know, we'll find out. But it did, in fact, break above and never took out these lows. You can see the lows here. These prior lows were not taken out. So, that's a positive. Ethereum, ETH, here it is, showing a little strength, up 3.3%. But it's still in a very embedded decline here. We can see that very clearly. We've been declining for a while. We're still under the Ichimoku cloud, and that's very bearish territory. You don't want to be adding positions when you're under the Ichimoku cloud. Here's the gold, GLD. We have a bullish engulfing pattern. That's a very bullish pattern. And, you know, it could be the beginning of a move up if price can get above this level here. And we've got resistance there. Tankinson, we've got resistance at the 399.20 level. And we've got resistance at the 200.8 and 26. And then the cloud's still above. So, gold, it's not the time to be adding positions. I wouldn't be shorting, though, because of this, right? IBIT, same thing. I wouldn't be shorting because it's showing a little bit of strength today. But getting back above the 35.30. But IBIT, by the way, is Bitcoin. The Bitcoin ETF is, as you can see here, we're still in a decline. The red line on the directional movement index is still above the green line. And we still have a bearish cloud. That's when the Sanquospan A, again, is under the Sanquospan B. And there's the ChicoSpan under price. So, no on Bitcoin, the MAG7 ETF, M-A-G-S, all right? After this double-top pattern, you can see it broke down. It's finally finding a little bit of support today, right? It found support right at the cloud. It pierced the cloud and then created a hammer. That's a very bullish camera, I mean a bullish candle. I'll show you guys what that looks like here. On the candle pattern reference sheet, it is this pattern right here. After it dropped, you get that long wick, small little body. And earlier, I was showing you guys the bullish engulfing pattern. That's this pattern right here. It's a double candle pattern, small red candle followed by a large green candle. So, what does it look like on the weekly? It stalled as well, right at the cloud. So, the weekly cloud, right? And the daily cloud. That's a positive. There's a higher probability that we might bounce here. Is it time to enter? I say no, because we're still into these moving averages. ChicoSpan is still in a weakened state here under the candles. So, I would say no on that. Oil K, K1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF is inside the cloud now, where it emerged yesterday. It's still under the 26th period. ChicoSpan is still under price. I would hold off on Oil K. The QQQ ETF popped, but it was unsuccessful. Let me just double check that. It closed at 7.17.12. And the conversion line, or Tankinson, which is the 9th period, is at 7.17.51. So, it stalled right at it. And the 26th period is also at the same exact level. So, no on the Qs at this point. The fact that it stalled is not a good sign. It would have been good to see it break and close above that level. So, it's a little bit more suspicious to me, is what I'd say. Okay. And the directional movement is still very negative here. Are there stocks that have performed really well in the Qs? Yes. Is this more of a stock picker's market versus ETF? You know, time to be adding this particular ETF? Yes, 100%. SLV silver, bullish engulfing pattern. Small red candle followed by a large bullish candle that engulfs it, but it's under the cloud. I would not be adding positions here, and I wouldn't be shorting it. The SPY ETF. Let's take a look at that one, which was up 1.7% today. It was unsuccessful. Let me repeat. It was unsuccessful in breaking above the 9 in the 26 period. It just gapped up, moved up, okay? And I would not be adding positions yet in the SPY. The ADX is still strong with a negative above the positive. We don't have confirmation. You look at the weekly chart. We're holding up above the 731.53 level, right? So, we'll see what happens there. The VIX. This is the market volatility index. That's down 12.06% under the Ichimoku cloud still. That's a good sign when we see this dropping, right? Some of the volatility and fear comes out of the market, but we're still in elevated levels of 19.44, all right? Let's keep going. Let's go through the CNBC stocks, and I won't spend too much time on all of them. Here's Casey. Casey's general stores. This one popped today. Here's a weekly chart. Very bullish for the week. Let's take a look at the daily chart. So, yesterday, it gapped up. I'm sorry. Well, it moved up quite a bit. It moved up approximately 13.99% or so. And then today, you can see we got a reversal candle right after. So, I'm guessing there's some profit taking that's taking place here. If price can get back above, if the bulls can push it above the high of this candle, then I think that we'll see a continuation to the upside. But I wouldn't be jumping in here based on that candle. Eli Lilly on the daily chart is moving sideways. And what I like about this one is the fact that we have a bullish candle here on Friday after these negative candles and staying above this support level of 1,133.95. It's based on this prior candle here going back to January 8th of 2026. So, that looks good. Here's a weekly chart. It's not, you know, a super bullish candle because it almost looks like a doji on the weekly. Open and closing prices are around the same Monday through so far. But tomorrow's another day, right? We'll see what happens, if this can continue to the upside or not. And LYV, this is Live Nation Entertainment. That's up 2.91% on the daily. Here it is in the weekly chart, breaking above the Tenkinson. That's an old message there. Let me get rid of that. So, I like LYV. LYV looks good. Live Nation looks pretty good here. On the daily chart, the moving averages have converged, Tenkinson, Kiesenson, but they're both moving up and so is the EDX and so is the volume. So, I'm giving this the benefit of the doubt with the blue flag here. Morgan Stanley got enclosed above the nine period here today, giving a buy six. Okay, so Morgan Stanley looks great on the daily chart and on the weekly chart. Actually, the weekly chart is above the moving averages and the cloud, but this candle is a little suspicious because it is a reversal candle. The daily looks more bullish. The reason this looks negative is because of the daily action this week. We may see a pop-up here. The financial services sector has been doing pretty good overall. All right, let's go through the rest of these. I won't spend too much time and I'll explain why because there's something technically wrong with all of these. So, only four of the 21 stocks met the criteria of this filter, the Ichimoku Cloud Indicator that can help us identify the technicals, the strength of the trend, and why are the rest of these not looking good? Let's look. Amazon, very clearly. You can see the decline that's been happening here. And we've got lower high here, okay, from the prior one, and we broke through this low. It's obviously not in a strong place. So, I'd hold off on Amazon. A-X-A-H-Y. I guess that was one of the ticker symbols. It was up 2.09%. It broke through the cloud, but it's under, I'm sorry, the Tenkinson. The faster moving average is still under the slower one. I would skip that and not buy that stock. American Express still staying under the cloud for three days in a row. That's a no-go for me, okay? No thank you. Best Buy. This looks good on the daily chart. What has just by recently has been quite bullish. We broke through this level right here, this prior high. Notice how, in fact, we gapped above it, right? We also gapped above the 200. That's bullish. We moved up a little bit. We dropped. We found support again at that 200. That gives us confirmation that this is probably going to be a sustained move to the upside. If we can also break through this high here, then I think that we're going to see that. The problem with this stock, Best Buy, right now, why I didn't give it a blue flag, is because the weekly chart, we still have a bearish cloud here. And on the weekly chart, this week hasn't ended yet. We don't know where this is going to close until Friday afternoon. But it's still a bearish cloud as far as I'm concerned. And so I'd be really cautious here. The Tengen's and Kijen's are flat. I don't like that either. But, and the volume has been declining here. The ADX is strong in the weekly. And on the daily looks good. Okay. It looks okay as well. But, again, I'm not 100% on that. Salesforce dropping under the cloud. No one. Salesforce. It's the CRM stock. CRM ticker symbol. DRI is darting restaurants. That one popped through the cloud yesterday. And this continues to be upside. Up 3.53%. It looks good on the daily. However, on the weekly, we've got, let's see here. Yeah. The faster moving average that Tengen's in is still under the slower one. I mean, the good news is we did break above. We closed above these moving averages. But the faster moving average is still under the slow one. The ADX is still dropping. I'm not sure that we can confirm here that this is definitely, or not definitely. You're never going to have anything definite in the markets, but you're going to have higher probabilities, right? So it's not as high a probability as these stocks that I mentioned earlier. Google, okay, on the weekly chart has been dropping four weeks in a row, as you can see here, right? It's under the Tengen's in right now, the nine period still. We'll see if it can make it above it tomorrow. It did move up 0.39% today. Here's the daily chart. Here's a, find some support at the cloud. We don't have a buy signal here, though, right? Negative DI is still above the positive DI. That's not good. IGV still dropping down 0.67 on the daily chart. We've got a bullish little candle here, but it's still looking negative. KVUE, we've got a bullish cloud that's forming. Price broke above the cloud. Tengen's and Cusion Center are at the same spot. We did get a reversal candle. That's not a good sign here. On the weekly chart, we're inside the cloud, so no on KVUE. You have a higher probability trade when both the weekly and the daily timeframe confirm the trend is strong, okay? Lyft is still under the cloud, and as you can see, we're looking down at a weekly chart here. It's been moving sideways for multiple weeks here for months since February. And, in fact, it's been declining since this month here back in November 14th, so it's dropped 45.63%. That's a big drop. Stay out of that one for now, in my opinion. Microsoft still under the cloud. No on that one, even though I found some support here at the 200. Service now is still under the decline under the moving averages. NVIDIA under the nine period. I would hold off in NVIDIA. That's the weekly chart, and here it is on the daily chart under the moving averages. Oracle under the moving averages, under the 200. It does seem like, even though it dropped quite a bit, there was a little bit of buying that started happening here. And you can see that on a three-minute chart. So there was the big gap down, right? And then it spent the rest of the day consolidating, right, here on the 11th of June. And then you can see this little pop-up here that happened in the afternoon. Let's see what time that was. That was around 2.42 p.m., somewhere around there, 2.40 p.m. It started moving up from that point, 1.68%. So, you know, you can't really make too much out of something like that. It's still under the moving averages. I'd skip it. Travelers, Tenkinson is under Kijinson. That means the faster moving averages is slow. I'd skip that one. It also gave us a shooting star reversal candle. TXN is still under the moving averages here. I'm sorry, it's under the 26th period, and we have a faster moving average under the slow one. So no on Texas Instruments. XLK is under the Tenkinson. It did pop a little 3.73%. That's the technology ETF. But look, the negative DI is still above the positive DI. No confirmation. This might just be one day up, and then we might see a continuation tomorrow to the downside. Anything can happen. If there's an escalation that takes place in the Middle East, you can guarantee that the XLK will drop. Here's the weekly chart. Still not looking particularly great here with these reversal-type candles, but we're above the moving averages at least. Let's take a look at the members-only requests. AMPG. That one. Amplitech Group. Popped. Let's see. We're above the cloud here on May 29th. Stabilized. Broke through the 643 level on the weekly chart. Broke through this prior high here, 643 from January 3rd. It's continuing to the upside. Here's the daily chart. So up 14.08% today. Look how small this candle is. And the fact that it moved up that much is it tells you how volatile it is. So you have to be careful with these. But it's still looking strong technically. All right. So that's interesting. I like that one. UAN, on the other hand, is still under the cloud, under the 114 level. No on that one. That's CVR Partners. Here's the weekly chart. Also dropping today under the Keygents and closing under the 26th period and under the 114 level. The 114 level is based on this low right here. March 10th, 2026. So my expectation is probably going to continue to the downside here. This is also a triple top bearish pattern. If you look, price came up, reached this level of 139.50. On this specific date of March 12th. Came back to it again on March 30th. Came back to it again on April 29th, 2026, right here, and dropped. And now it's breaking through these. It broke through this low. And now it's breaking through this one too, the 114. The next level of support is the 200. It's about 4.6% away. MRNA is in, I'm sorry, it's under the Ichimoku cloud. It's moving sideways. There's not a whole lot happening here. It's just in a consolidation mode right now. All right. So if you have a position in this, what you do is just kind of like wait and see. This is more of a wait and see approach. If it gets under some of these lows here of 43.77 or so, then you know this is probably going to continue the downside and reach that 200. Here's a weekly chart. Okay. Like I said, it's consolidating multiple weeks here in this range. The good news is that we have a, it was up 7.94% today. It bounced off the 26 period last week and it's moving up today. All right. So overall, Moderna has some possibilities here. But until we get above and close above that green line, I wouldn't recommend it here. Guys, that's going to do it for this video. So if you like this video and you want to support the channel and you want to learn some more about my methodology, how I hedge my account, sometimes when the markets are dropping, if you want to get access to the watch list that I create every weekend. So I always create a watch list every weekend for the net, for each week that comes up, I find the strongest sectors. I find the strongest industries. And then I, I share, I share that information with our blue cloud trader and blue cloud legend level members to get, to become a member. You need to click on the join button. It's next to the subscribe button. All right. Remember it's free to subscribe. It's free to hit that notification bell. And then my videos will pop up in your notification. Okay. 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You'll get access to some of my day trading videos, and you'll also get access to the daily trade updates that I make every day before the market closes usually around 2:00 PM or so. And I, what I do is I post them right next to the post tab. There'll be a new tab that pops up after you become a member, it will show members, it will say membership. You become a member, this is where you'll find the, sorry, the posts, okay. I also share additional ideas, stock ideas from the proprietary blue cloud scanner that I've put together. Looking for those strong stocks on both the weekly and daily timeframes. Very important and giving a buy signal on the, on the daily chart every day. There were quite a few that popped up on today's, for example. All right, guys, that's going to do it. Thank you for watching. Thanks for supporting the channel. [01:05:11] Speaker 4: I will catch you all in the next video. We'll catch you all in the next video. [01:05:43] Speaker ?: Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye.