SPACEX HIGHER... BUT TECH STOCKS DECLINE (Tuesday 06/16) Stock Market Analysis

[00:00:00] Frank Holland: Blue cloud trading through the night. All right, thank you, Carl and Sarah. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland, in for the judge, Scott Wapner. Front and center at this hour, the rallies road ahead as the market tries to maintain Monday's momentum. The investment committee right here with their positioning playbooks with stocks very close to record highs. Joining me for this hour, we have Joe Terranova, Shannon Sikosha, Jenny Harrington, and Josh Brown. Before we get started, quick check on the markets right now. You can see right now the Dow, it's up over three-quarters of 1%. On pace for a four-day win streak. The S&P on pace to snap a three-day win streak. Down near the Russell, you see pulling back about a quarter of 1%. I think that's where we've got to start. Joe, you're right here with me. I'm going to start with you. So we're looking at the markets right now. We know that the S&P equal weight is actually coming off a record high. At the same time, we see a stock like SpaceX surging. Last check, up over 8%. So do you want to play the broadening, or do you want to play tech and this new enthusiasm around the tech sector? I think you want to play momentum because you can find momentum [00:01:01] Joe Terranova: in both of those types of strategies. First of all, let's keep in mind SpaceX options introduced today. That's going to add to the volatility that's currently in place. But you're correct to identify the S&P equal weight. I believe we have a new all-time high once again for the S&P equal weight. So momentum can find itself in different places. It could find itself in the AI trade and semiconductors. And guess what? It could find itself in Caterpillar. It could find itself in Edward Life Sciences. How about Monster Beverage or Williams-Sonoma? These are four names that we hold in the Jyoti ETF. They have nothing to do with technology. They have nothing to do with the AI story. But each of those four names are making a 52-week high. And I think that's the condition. I think that's the story in the marketplace today. I think that capital is moving away from energy. Capital is moving away from some of the defensive positioning because yields four and a half percent. Six consecutive days at the beginning of June, that warranted some defensive positioning. Capital is now relaxing and it's moving to a variety of different places, all with momentum as the common denominator. [00:02:18] Frank Holland: Doubling. Josh Brown, I want to come over to you. First time you're on halftime since the SpaceX IPO. I want to talk to you about the enthusiasm around SpaceX and also some of this broadening that we're seeing. [00:02:29] Josh Brown: Yeah, so I think one of the main things that I would say is that this is really a one-of-a-kind asset. You know, everyone is now very excited about space. And there are other publicly traded ways to, quote-unquote, play space. But there's only one that involves Elon Musk. And there's only one with the level of revenue that's expected here. And it really is, it's almost like its own planet. And so I think what we don't want to do is watch the stock taking out new highs. I guess it's now the third day in a row since it's come public. And infer anything about any other area of the market. It's in its own world. It is impervious to conversations about poor moves or interest rates or CPI. And clearly, there just was not enough stock out there relative to the amount of people that wanted to buy it and wanted to participate in this once-in-a-generation, some would say once-in-a-century situation. Putting that aside, I agree with Joe's opening remarks. There are so many stocks making 52-week highs right now. Not every stock. And the internals aren't amazing. There are a lot of S&P names that are negative on the year. But if we focus on momentum, we are not stuck with, do I buy SpaceX or not? We are no longer stuck in this world of, okay, I have to buy Korea and the five publicly traded memory names. No. There are names in almost every sector hitting my best stock market list and hitting 52-week highs. And I think you're seeing crowding into those names because this is what people want to do. They want to own the winners right now. It's just the environment that we're in. I love the fact, though, that you can find those winners almost every different area of the market that you want to look. [00:04:25] Frank Holland: You know, we're going to get to your best stocks in the market coming up just a bit later in the show. By the way, somebody did an amazing interview with the CEO of one of the companies that Josh picked last week. It was just outstanding. We'll get to that part later. It's good to you. Jenny Harrington, coming over to you. So are you going to play some of the enthusiasm around tech that really is focused on SpaceX today, looking at the SMH pulling back, looking at some other parts of the market pulling back, but more broadly, there's more enthusiasm or the actual broadening that we pointed out? [00:04:50] Jenny Harrington: Well, you know, Frank, I can't play it, right, because we have really strict disciplines on all three of our strategies that are rooted in free cash flow generation. So the area where you could play, and also we're long-term investors, so we don't play. But I think it informs what we do, and it informs the positioning, and it's interesting. And when I think about what Shannon said about, you know, it looks like the broadening really does, like maybe we get back to the beginning of the first quarter, and the broadening takes hold. And when I think about what Josh just said, which is you see stocks making 52-week highs in every area of the market, that's more when I'm thinking about, like, how to position, not play. But that's what I'm thinking about. So, for example, you know, in our growth strategy, we've got Teradine. And Teradine's up another 124% this year. And so how do you manage that? Not how do you play that, but how do you manage it? So we have this, you know, 5% free cash flow hurdle. But the stock's been in there since it had a 10% free cash flow. Now it's down to a 1.6% free cash flow yield. But it still has amazing prospects with respect to AI. And so it's a very challenging thing to say, like, okay, can you add that for new portfolios? Of course, you continue holding it. Where do you trim it to manage the position size? So it's really, like, that's the challenge when we're thinking about it, is just how do you manage this? I mean, there's all sorts of weird stuff in there, too, like XPO's up 60%. Albany Investments up 40%, 50% on the year. I've got, you know, Postal Realty up 47% for the year. And I don't think these are directly AI. They're not SpaceX. But it is a bigger statement on how do you manage your portfolio when there are moves to the degree that we've seen this year. I was joking with a client earlier this week saying, you know, down 50% and up 100% is not the same as down 50% and up 100% as five years ago. You know, the way stocks move now, there's so much movement. So it used to be like, oh, my God, a stock's down 50%. What's wrong? Like, hey, it might just be in that it's not loved as much and it's lost favor. It might not actually be something's terrible with the company. Stock's up 100%. Valuation's rich. Might still be up 200% more than that. Things are just moving differently. It's hard to manage and it's hard to know what to do in the short term. [00:07:00] Joe Terranova: I think it's important to understand how dramatically sentiment has swung over the last week. Think about the conversation we were having one week ago. Oh, no. Here we go. We had this parabolic move in the memory names, in the semis, and the Nasdaq had gone parabolic and it was the inflection point. We were going to see a reversal that was going to rival 99. And then here comes the SpaceX IPO, the boogeyman is coming. We're not going to be able to handle the supply. Well, guess what? We're on the other side of that. We were able to handle the supply because the demand was insatiable, not just here in the U.S. Japan, $2.5 billion worth of demand and filling those orders. Europe, $2.5 billion as well. So, I think what we saw last week was such a dramatic lifting of sentiment. And to Josh's point, you could right now look at SpaceX and say, okay, what we're seeing is that sentiment reflected in maybe excessive speculation. But that doesn't mean it damages the market. It's not as if I said this to Josh the other day. It's not as if you are using a calculator and a pencil to figure out where SpaceX is going. It's just this really strong sentiment, and you could find opportunity everywhere. Jenny's talking about her strategy. I'm reminded a dividend strategy this year is up, what, greater than 10? [00:08:26] Jenny Harrington: 11 and change percent. [00:08:27] Joe Terranova: 11 and change percent. It's crazy. So, this is a very healthy marketplace, and I think that's the blessing of what we continue to witness, and we really got a grand example of it last week. [00:08:38] Frank Holland: Speaking of sentiment, just a lot of bullishness and positivity in the market right now, Wolf upgrading tech, comm services, discretionary, and industrials. And we also have Wells Fargo, as I mentioned before, upgrading materials and health care. Are there any one of those sectors that you feel more positive about than the other or less positive about, especially with the idea that Kevin Warsh has taken over as the Fed chair? And while people don't think he can do anything immediately, I think most of us think we know basically the direction he wants to take the Fed. [00:09:06] Josh Brown: So, we don't do these, like, sector over underweights. But just, like, speaking on what's actually happening right now, look, I think industrials, if you've been selective, and if you've been in the quote-unquote right industrials, this has been a great year. And there are tons of names that have been, for the most part, working. What's happening now, though, maybe this is rates-related, maybe this is just a general exhale if we're going to have, like, an actual ceasefire. But the financials are starting to take the lead. So, over the last month, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are the numbers two through six best-performing stocks in the S&P. Those are all the leadership names. That's what's happening right now that I think is different. These stocks were kind of stuck in the mud for a little while. When I look at J.P. Morgan, which I didn't list in that group, but J.P. Morgan is less than three points away from an all-time record high. What a lot of those companies have in common is they're not just spread financials, they're fee financials. They are feasting on this renewed appetite in the public markets for deals. And these are the companies that are making the most money outside of the company that's actually raising the money. So, when you look at the reception of SpaceX, and then you look at some of these stocks like the Morgan Stanleys, the Goldmans, J.P. Morgans, they're on the front cover of the books for these offerings. And not only is there the benefit for the investment banking business when the company goes public, but think of all the other streams of fees that come from that. Wealth management is the obvious one. All of the insiders of these companies, a lot of the employees, now have investable wealth. Guess who the first phone call is coming from? Inside the house. And then you think about trading activity. And, look, it's just like, it's a really obvious trade here. I don't know that enough people are talking about it or have it on. So, I'm not like a big, like, let's all buy this sector, let's all buy that sector. But if you're looking for winners, these stocks look pretty damn good right now. [00:11:22] Frank Holland: Joe, I want to come over to you. You own Goldman. Your take on what Josh had to say and just the financials in general. We mind melt. [00:11:29] Joe Terranova: I was literally going to speak before Josh did about the price action in financials. What's interesting about it is at the beginning of the year, the financial sector was probably one of the most talked about sectors as it related to where performance could be at the end of the year and it not being a technology company, right? We wanted the broadening out story to come into play in 2026, and it was going to be the financial sector that was going to lead the charge. I know in the ETF, we carried at one point in 2025 greater than a 30% weighting towards financials. Once the war set hold on the other side of that, the financial sector lost all of its momentum. And I really look right now at industrials, healthcare, and financials and say, okay, it's financials, that one sector, that can very quickly rebuild positioning to where it was at the beginning of the year. I don't think very many people realize JP Morgan sitting at 331. I think the all-time intraday high is 337. So quietly, Citi making the 52-week high, as Josh said. But look at the opportunity here to rebuild positioning, because I think we very quickly went to an underweight once the war began in the financial sector. [00:12:48] Josh Brown: One more on these, Frank. I actually have a breakout in progress. This is full disclosure. This name, we're long in our Porterhouse portfolio. Citizens Financial Group, CFG. Go ahead and give me a one-year chart. What you can plainly see here is this is a stock that struggled at the onset of the war, just like all of the other financials. It's been building, here you go, it's been building this pattern of higher lows. The buyers are coming in more and more rapidly on each dip. And now we are challenging that pre-Iran war high, which was about 68 on February 6th. Take that level out today, tomorrow, doesn't matter. There's not a lot of resistance, because nobody has ever bought the stock above that price. And I think once it breaks free, you could add this to that list, that litany I just gave you, of leadership stocks within the financial group. This is a very large, mid-sized bank, or super regional, whatever they call them these days. [00:13:54] Joe Terranova: I gave you this name last week, Globe Life, GL. It's an insurance company in the state of Texas. It's in the S&P 500. You could look at the chart, see where it is at a 52-week high as well. Explain to me the reasoning behind it. Let me explain it. But a clear example of it. You've got it? [00:14:12] Jenny Harrington: I think I do, because this is exactly what Josh and I were talking about last week. And when I was trying to get in, I wanted to go straight to insurance. So we're saying, you want to be in the CapEx takers. But I don't really think it's just the CapEx takers. I think you want to be in the second derivative AI beneficiary place. And the insurance business is a huge beneficiary of AI. Financials, all the ones you were just talking about, huge beneficiary. In my portfolio, UPS, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers, all huge AI beneficiaries. But it's not that. It wasn't the first derivative. It wasn't last year. And that's what we're seeing now. So I think we don't even need to think of it, Josh. We don't even need to think of it as a trade. You know, you said these could be a great trade. I think it's bigger than that. I think it could be a very long-term investment, because I think the beauty of AI is that it takes globe. Last week when we were talking, I mentioned that we own AXA and Zurich Insurance and our international strategy. Josh, I can't remember which name you own, but it was a U.S. Oh, it was Chubb, right? Or something like that. It was one of the U.S. insurers. But all of these guys are just huge, huge, long-term, game-changing beneficiaries, which adds to the broadening trade. [00:15:14] Joe Terranova: That's a great observation. I think they're in the secular sweet spot. If I look at our holdings, we have 19 holdings in the financials. Principal financial group, number one. MetLife, number three. Allstate, number five. Travelers, six. Chubb, seven. All at the top of the leaderboard for the sector. [00:15:32] Frank Holland: By the way, so these three are in a mind meld, Shannon. I don't want to leave you out. I don't know if you want to join the mind meld on financials right here. [00:15:37] Jenny Harrington: I'm very uncomfortable being in a mind meld. I've got to get out of this. [00:15:41] Frank Holland: So one other thing to talk about. Rick Reeder on CNBC yesterday, BlackRock's Rick Reeder, talking about he sees an explosive rally as cash gets unlocked. When he's talking about his money coming out of money markets, like finally, finally somebody's talking about it. I want to correct myself. He was not here on CNBC. He said it to Bloomberg. And I just looked at the data. If you look at the first week of June, you see $21 billion came out of money markets, according to ICI, in the first week of June. Shannon, can I come to you with that? I know you don't want to be in the mind meld. This one's just for you. [00:16:09] Speaker 5: No, listen, I love, you know, love to talk insurance, but we can talk flows. So, I mean, there has been this narrative around cash on the sidelines for some time. And that, you know, particularly with cash rates remaining high and the fact that we really haven't seen the Fed renew, you know, more of a pronounced rate cutting cycle that, you know, investors have been paid essentially to be sitting in cash. I think what you're seeing, though, is I think that you're seeing this responsiveness to the continued growth in earnings. And I feel like we haven't talked about that at all yet on the show today. But the strength in earnings and the likelihood is, is that in the second half of the year, U.S. companies are going to continue to drive earnings forward. And I think that if you think about investors who have been waiting for that pullback, who have been waiting for that better entry point, we saw in April and May of last year, as well as in April of this year, these sharp snapbacks. And frankly, I think investors are looking at this and saying, you know what, maybe I'm not going to be able to catch that kind of frothy drawdown or pullback. Instead, what am I looking at for the second half of this year? Do I want to be positioned in a market that continues to move higher? And I think that that's where you are seeing this cash move off the sidelines. There's also some uncertainty around the rates picture. And so, you know, clients who, you know, are investors who perhaps wanted to move from cash to short duration or intermediate duration fixed income, perhaps they feel a little bit more hesitant about that with a new Fed share, with this overhang of inflation. And so maybe I'll put it in the equity market rather than perhaps taking the more safe route to intermediate duration. [00:17:43] Frank Holland: So, Joe, at least $21 billion coming off the sidelines. People always have been talking about this money coming out of the money markets, and it may actually be happening. Do you see that helping out the broadening, or does it help out certain sectors like big tech? Where does that money go? I don't know. [00:17:56] Joe Terranova: I don't know that I believe in the concept of this capital that's been – I've heard about that since the great – Since the great financial crisis, the money's been sitting on the side of this. Look, I think what happens is the market has a personality, and the market right now is in a very happy state. You could say in some areas of the market it's euphoric. We could survive euphoria in some part of the markets. We're okay with that because the earnings growth is really good, and the earnings growth warrants some of the appreciation that we're seeing in the various industries. It's healthy, everything that we're speaking about here in the first 23 minutes, whereas Josh cited yesterday on Closing Bell, I think he asked for a chart of the Russell, which is approaching new highs. Jenny's talking about a dividend strategy. I'm suggesting you could find momentum in places beyond technology. That's a healthy marketplace. And if, in fact, bonds and yields are close to their high for the year, which I believe they are, then you're going to see an opportunity in corporate debt as well, even with spreads being tight. So money is definitely moving and rotating from a lot of different places. You have to be able to withstand the volatility that's associated with that. But you get paid on the other side of it for being able to rebalance and take advantage of the dispersion that's uncurring. [00:19:16] Frank Holland: To the point about just that rotation, the S&P equal weight on pace for another record close right now, up about a quarter of 1%. All right, coming up, Josh has a new buy, and it's a stock that was just named a long-term growth idea. One big bank, we're going to reveal that name. Plus, we're going to debate our top calls of the day. Halftime's back in just two minutes. [00:19:35] Speaker 6: This is the round that keeps paying off. Book a Hot Deals tee time and get $25 off your next two rounds. Add Golf Pass Plus for $25 off today. Book now on golfnow.com or in the app. [00:19:50] Frank Holland: For me, Squawk Box is breakfast with the most interesting people in the world. [00:19:54] Speaker 5: It's a privilege to get to talk to them every day. [00:19:56] Speaker 7: It's more entertaining than any other morning show, but you might get some useful information. [00:20:01] Speaker 8: Squawk Box, weekdays, 6 a.m. Eastern. Eastern and streaming on CNBC+. [00:20:06] Speaker 9: The CNBC CEO Councils are always on my calendar. The opportunity to see this concentration of talent and expertise really unique. [00:20:16] Speaker 10: It's always great just to be around people that do the same thing you do every single day as a CEO, but have it in a completely different industry and a different place. [00:20:27] Speaker 5: I'm going to leave you in the capable hands now of some CEO Council members. Jake, what do you take away from Davos? [00:20:31] Josh Brown: I think infrastructure is the future, and you can enable that with technology. It's a pretty powerful combination. [00:20:37] Speaker 11: To be able to meet people who can have conversations with about challenges instead of me going out and trying to find 20 people in my network, it's a time savings. [00:20:45] Speaker 12: That free discourse, saying what you actually believe, that's what breeds solutions, ideas, and change. [00:20:52] Speaker 13: Usually on my flight back, I make notes on one of my top three takeaways. I've usually had a list that's longer than three things, and I've never been short. [00:21:00] Speaker 8: Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. [00:21:20] Speaker ?: Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. Explore CNBC Council's memberships at cnbccouncils.com slash success. [00:22:10] Frank Holland: And welcome back to Halftime. Josh, coming over to you. You have a new buy in a company making some headlines today. That's Robinhood. [00:22:26] Josh Brown: Yes. Stock is in a 37% drawdown, but it looks to be on the comeback trail. This is a company that today told us they are laying off 10% of their workforce, but did not use the word or the term AI. This is what they actually said. The company is taking this action from a position of business strength, including June month-to-date average daily trading volumes at record levels across equities, options, and prediction markets. Let's talk about prediction markets. My friend Dan Dolev at Mizuho is out with a report saying they actually think prediction market contract volume, so the overall size of the trading is going from $8 billion this quarter to end up somewhere around $45 billion in fiscal year 2026. So that would take revenue, projected revenue, to about $470 million, or 9% of total revenue. So as recently as six months ago, we were talking about prediction markets like it's some sort of, you know, who knows, we'll see what happens. And now it's becoming a meaningful contributor. I would imagine NBA Finals and playoffs volumes have helped there. Don't forget, we have the midterms coming up, and people love trading political outcomes in these markets. So here you have a stock in a substantial discount to its old highs, but off the lows, making a series of higher lows, which you know I love. Unfortunately for the company, it's still got a very heavy correlation to the price of Bitcoin. However, even Bitcoin is dragging its sorry ass off the mat. So a lot of things are going well in the company's direction. This stock had a forward PE of 65 times in January. Now it's 43 times, and it's got growth that blows every other player in the space completely away. So it's a trade I've got to stop in, but I like the trend, and I don't really see a ton of resistance until about 115, 120. So that's where I stand with Robinhood. [00:24:39] Frank Holland: All right, Joseph. Josh didn't mention SpaceX, but he alluded to it with the record-breaking traffic. The company's saying they saw record-breaking traffic. I alluded to it. You alluded to it. There you go. I'm in the mind meld too, Josh. One share for everyone, right? Everyone gets to eat. So is this stock, do you see just a basic beneficiary of just a resurgence in retail trading? Is that another factor that you think could help this stock? [00:25:01] Joe Terranova: Well, it's one of the catalysts, but kind of let's pull back a little bit and look at it from a 30,000-foot view. We've owned this stock for the better part of well over a year. It is still a momentum name. When you look at the last 12 months, it's up 26%, as we can see here on the screen. Some interesting things. Josh mentions a series of higher lows since the March 30th low embedded in that higher price pattern, short-term in its nature, is the April 28th earnings. So April 28th earnings, the stock actually moved lower after that and fought off and pushed against that and continued to move higher. You like to see that type of price action where a stock will go lower consistent with the near-term trend and then reverse and go the other way. It's approaching the 200-day moving average. You could get a breakout there. And then I just think fundamentally, they've gotten ahead of some of their peers in terms of adding really good intellectual capital to the bench, a lot of veteran leadership from the financial services industry. So I am certainly encouraged about what I'm seeing from the price action, from the fundamentals. And that really has nothing to do with what goes on with crypto. I understand the correlation, but I'm not saying we need crypto to be the single catalyst to move it higher. All right. [00:26:24] Frank Holland: And we are back on halftime with Josh Brown's Best Stocks in the Market. Josh, today, we're looking at the transports, specifically Union Pacific and J.B. Hunt. [00:26:34] Josh Brown: Yes, and these are names that we have talked about before, just giving readers of the Best Stocks column a little bit of an update. Union Pacific is really interesting. They're in the midst of this acquisition of Norfolk. They are going to become something that industrialists in this country have dreamed of for 200 years. Truly a pan-American coast-to-coast rail when all is said and done. They're looking for double-digit earnings per share growth through the year 2027. The stock had broken out above 260, which was resistance and I think is now support. And it's since pushed through 273, backed off a little bit. But the buyers continue to step in. Look at it right in front of you. Buyers continue to step in at that rising 200-day, which is the yellow line at the lower end. RSI is about 57, not overbought yet. I still think trading can use 260 as sort of a line in the sand, a pivot point. For investors, I'd focus on that 248 to 250 area. That's where the stock has found support twice since mid-April before the breakout began. I'd be willing to bet it'll find support there as well. J.B. Hunt is trucking intermodal. Volumes hit record levels in the first quarter, up 7% year-over-year. Here's a stock knocking on the door of 300, a big fat round number level that had been kind of a blanket thrown on the stock last week. But I think ultimately it'll get through. Beneath, we have a rising 50-day acting as a very reliable floor, really going back to October. And so the way I would think about this is traders can use 270, investors can use the 50-day, which is 253. Again, that's been a structural floor for the stock on multiple occasions. The 200-day is almost 50% below today's price, so don't rely on that. This thing has gone up way too much. But I really like the risk-reward here, and this is the right sector. Stock's been working pretty much all year, and I think it'll continue to work. Care sector and the pharma sector more broadly. [00:28:47] Speaker 5: We've seen a little bit of a pickup in the healthcare sector over the course of the last few weeks or so. I think that if you think about AI disintermediation and benefit that Jenny mentioned earlier, there's clearly meaningful benefit in MCOs. There's also this overhang of continuing drug price pressure that seems to have ease as the administration has other things in their sights. [00:29:10] Frank Holland: All right, XLV up about a quarter, 1%. We're going to go right into final trades. Shannon, might as well kick it off with you. [00:29:15] Speaker 5: Industrials, we talked earlier about AI and the build-out. But I think if you look at, we're undergoing a meaningful industrial inflection higher, and that's across not only AI but non-AI CapEx. [00:29:27] Frank Holland: Josh, over to you, your final trade. [00:29:30] Josh Brown: Long Robin Hood. The markets are on fire. The stock should respond. Jenny. [00:29:36] Jenny Harrington: Okay, Schwab, 14 times earnings, huge earnings growth ahead, down 8% this year, so you've got a really great opportunity again. Everything about the environment that we've talked about on this show today lends itself to supporting Schwab's business. [00:29:50] Joe Terranova: Joe, three financial names. State Street, that's the last one. [00:29:54] Frank Holland: I've got to leave it there. It doesn't probably have time, D. And welcome to Closing Bell. I am Frank Holland, in for the judge, Scott Waffner. This make-or-break hour starts with another run of records, with the Dow and Pace for another closing high. The magic number there, 51-671. We're going to watch that action throughout this final hour of the trading day. Here's your full scorecard with 60 minutes to go left in the session. Taking a look, the Dow is up. I have to apologize. The number to watch is 52,190. As you can see, the Dow's above that 51,000 number I mentioned. The Dow's up by three-quarters of 1%. You see the S&P pulling back a third of 1%. The Nasdaq down more than a half a percent. The Russell 2000 pulling back nearly a half a percent. Oil, that's the big story right now, falling to its lowest level since March. You can see right now WTI trading at about 76.42 a barrel, down more than 5%. Brent crude, the international benchmark, down more than 4.5%, trading just under 80 bucks a barrel. And shares of SpaceX, they are rocketing higher once again today as options begin trading. And that stock, shares of SpaceX up 8.75 of 1% right now. It's been moving up and down all day. In the city, Scott Kroner. Scott, great to have you here. We've got to get right to it. We're on track for a record close on the Dow, crossing over 51,671. Your take on that? [00:31:08] Speaker 7: Well, I think we're in pretty good shape here for a solid finish to the quarter. And then as we go into the second half, you know, color us constructive. We still think the underlying fundamental drivers to support U.S. equities is in very good shape. We're still expecting leadership out of the AI infrastructure cohort as we go into the Q2 reporting period. But with oil prices beginning to come off here, as we get closer to an Iran conflict resolution, I think we can see the Fed move into the sidelines. What this ultimately does is extend the broadening playbook, which has been underway for the past month or so, all of which gives us, in our view, a path higher as we go into the back half of the year. [00:31:47] Frank Holland: All right. We certainly see broadening very quickly. Scott, is there one sector you see as the biggest beneficiary of the broadening trade? [00:31:53] Speaker 7: The banks have done really well over the past month, and I think a lot of this is excess capital, but I think it's good fundamentals, solid credit conditions, consumer in reasonably good shape. I think everything's kind of pointing to it. [00:32:06] Speaker 14: Hello, everybody. Welcome to Blue Cloud Trading. I'm George. It's Tuesday, June 16th, and it's 4.36 p.m. Eastern time. And the markets were mixed today, actually. The Dow Jones was up 0.64%. We can see here it basically moved up steadily, but then around 12.30, 1 o'clock, it started to decline. NASDAQ also moved up in the early morning, and then around 10 a.m. started to drop. Throughout the day, it was down 1.15%. S&P 500 did something similar. It was down 0.57%. And the Russell 2000, same thing, down 0.87%. What we're going to do in this video is we're going to go over a number of stocks that they discussed on today's episode of the Halftime Report and Closing Bell that we just watched, some of those clips from earlier today. And so let me show you guys exactly what we'll be covering. We'll be covering the Dow, the Russell, the Eurostox, SMH, ETF. Actually, I think I might have it twice in here. Let me just make sure I don't do it twice. There we go. Yeah, let's remove it from here. Okay. We're going to cover gold, silver, oil, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Copper, the MAG7 ETF. We're going to cover a whole group of about 19 stocks and ETFs that are all mixed up in here. You can see like the ones that they discussed, right? Like Robinhood and JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs. We're going to look at XLF. We're going to look at one of our members' requests, AMPG. We're going to do it very quickly. We won't spend too much time on each of these because we don't have to under this one we're using, for example, the Ichimoku indicator. And I'm going to explain to you guys how that works. All we need to do essentially is look at the chart and what Ichimoku stands for in Japanese is at a glance. We can quickly assess what's happening here in this particular ETF. So it was up 0.59% as you can see here. Okay. Oh, one more thing I should just show you guys how the, let's look at the heat map. I just want to show you guys how the S&P 500 performed today. It was mostly the financial stocks that were in the green, a lot of green here. The technology stocks did not do so well today. As you can see, they were in the red. Tesla was down. Amazon was down just 0.01. Google was up. Meta was up. You know, Home Depot and Lowe's was up. But yeah, it's very mixed. Very mixed day today. And let me just show you very quickly what the aftermarket performance looks like. Oracle's down 1.4% after hours. And AT&T is down 1.34%. It looks like Airbnb is down 1.37% and HCA Healthcare is down as well. But companies like Micron are starting to move up and so is Texas Instruments, Qcom. You can see that right there, LRCX. So, and Sandus Corporation at 0.78. So that's, you know, it's kind of cool to see what's happening post market as well. So let's go ahead now and take a look at the charts. We're going to look at this specific ETF first. The Dow, the DIA ETF. Okay. And it's at 0.59% as I said earlier. Now, what is the Ichimoku? It's basically, it consists of five lines. The single span A, the single span B, which makes the cloud itself. And it's actually projected 26 periods into the future from the current price. We've got the green line and red line. What are those? That's the Tenkinson or the midpoint of the last nine periods. And the red line is the midpoint of the last 26 periods. We always want that green line above the red line. And we want the price to be above both of those two moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. We also have one last line, the Chiku span or lagging line. That's the current price. Instead of it being, you know, this line being under, it's actually the current price projected 26 periods into the future, into the past, sorry. And we want to see what that white line is in relation to the candle 26 periods ago. All right. So 26 days ago. In this case, since we're looking at a daily chart. If we were looking at a weekly chart, all the same rules apply. The only difference is everything is based on the weeks. Okay. So 26 weeks ago. This is what, you know, the weekly chart looks like for the DAO. So you'll notice that there's a blue flag here right next to these four ETFs. The reason for that is because under the Ichimoku rules, it's just these four out of the 14 that pass the rules where we're looking for a strong trend. And I'm talking about an uptrend, not a downtrend, okay? Because we can have the complete opposite when the market is dropping, when price gets under the cloud like it did, for example, back here in 2022, right? Started getting under the moving averages, under the cloud. But, you know, you can go back even further. Let's see if we can get to, yeah, there's beautiful 2008. I'm sure everybody remembers 2008. Their portfolio is dropping. So this is how the Ichimoku looked like back then. It could have given you some signals to not be adding positions here while the market is in a decline. Because that decline from where it entered the cloud here, okay? So let's assume that we measure that point right there. And we go down all the way down to the low, all right? And that's in a matter of 1.2 years, the market dropped 49.46%. Huge drop. So it happens. It can happen anytime. Right now we're in a bull market though still technically, okay? So we're above the moving averages. We're above the cloud. Everything looks bullish still. Now, so I like the Dow. Looks good in the week. Looks good in the daily chart, okay? Nothing negative to say here. Russell 2000, down 0.88%. But it meets the criteria that we're talking about. Prices above the moving averages in the cloud. We might see it pull back a little further tomorrow, maybe another day. But right now the Russell is still strong. Here's the daily, here's the weekly chart, okay? FEZ is the Eurostoxx 50. That too looks good in the weekly and daily chart, hence the blue flag. SMH, which is a semiconductor ETF, dropped 4.8% today, 4.81. You can see here we had this type of reversal candle yesterday. It wasn't a particularly bullish candle as I mentioned yesterday. So we had that gap up, but that's a small candle. It's not really something that you want to put too much into. And basically it did drop today. Now, the fact that we were still above the moving averages is still bullish. Tomorrow we might get a bullish day. Everything is based on the news, of course. We'll see what happens with SMH. But it still is in a nice bull trend on the weekly chart and on the daily, technically, okay? Higher highs, higher lows, all of that. Now, the SPY does not have a blue flag. That's the S&P 500 ETF. Why is that? It was down 0.6%. You'll see here for the last couple of days now, all right, the green line, which is the nine period, has crossed under. That's not a good sign, according to the Ichimoku. It's a bearish sign. Everything else is looking good. Price is above the cloud. The lag in line is still above price. But this is something to be concerned about. Why is that? Because if price, for example, now starts to create a lower high, which is where we're at right here, if this thing starts to drop more, and then also surpasses under this low, we're in trouble. It hasn't come close to that yet, all right? It's just down 0.6%. It may just come down, find some support here at the moving averages, and then bounce. But right now, I would not be adding positions, new positions, all right? This is a point where you're more in a hold position. You're observing the market. You're checking to see what's about to happen, if anything at all is about to happen. There's a lot of interesting news going on this week, and we'll see how it all transpires. The same thing is happening here with the QQQ ETF, which was down 1.9%. The faster moving average crossed under, all right? We've got a lower high here that's starting to develop. Let's take a look at the weekly chart. Still in a strong uptrend. The moving averages are in the correct order. Price is above them. The ChicoSpan or lagging line is above price. All right, let's take a look at VIX, the VIX, which was up slightly, 0.68, but it's at a level of 16.4%. Which is still a very healthy level for the VIX. That's the volatility index. And GLD, gold, is still dropping. As you can see here on the weekly chart, under the moving averages, right? But if you look at the daily chart, we recently had a little gap up above the faster moving average. The thing is that gold currently as an ETF is still in a, you know, depressed state, all right? We're in a decline. And there's not enough people buying this ETF at this point. We're in a downward channel, as you can see. So, I would hold off on gold for now. Now, if you have a position, you can certainly manage that. There are ways to manage your positions if you have gold stocks in your portfolio by hedging. If you guys want to find out about how I do that in my portfolio, become a Blue Cloud trader or Blue Cloud Legend level member. And to get access to that, you just have to become, hit the join button on my YouTube channel here. All right. It's free to subscribe to my channel. Hit that join button. Select Blue Cloud trader or Blue Cloud Legend if you want to get daily updates on my trades. This one, you'll get weekly updates. All right. All right. Let's go back. So, silver. Let's take a look at that. That is down 0.13%. Also, under the cloud still. I would not be adding positions here. I wouldn't be shorting it either, though. Oil K. Look at this. Dropping under the cloud. That's the K1 free crude oil strategy ETF. There's a lot of hopes that the Strait of Hormuz is going to fully open, potentially. Hasn't happened yet. If things go awry, expect this to pop. If things continue to progress in that area and what's happening in that environment right now, then we'll see this continue to probably drop, which is good for the economy overall, obviously. And if we look at this on the weekly chart, you can see that, yeah, we've, for the last four weeks now, oil K has been dropping. IBIT. And so you can sort of get a sense about getting that early, you know, signal when oil starts to drop is when it starts breaking under the nine period. Then it's going to come down to the next level, the next level of support, which is the 26 period, the Key Jensen. Right. If it can hold up here and bounce, that's one thing. But if it drops, it's got another level of support, the 200, followed by the actual cloud itself on the weekly. Here's the daily chart. And you can see how the cloud has turned bearish here for oil K. That's when the Sengu Span A, which is this light colored blue line, crosses under the purple line, as it did right there. We already had the negative crossover of the faster moving average here under the slower one. OK, and the directional movement index is also negative. You can see that ADX is moving up, the negative DI is moving up, and the positive DI is moving down. This is all negative. OK, we want to see the opposite. We want to see the green line always above the red line, like back here. OK, if you move here, for example, you'll see how price this whole time, the green line was above the red line. Notice how price was also making that huge move. So this is not a good state for oil K. What about Bitcoin, IBIT? This is also under the cloud and not looking particularly great here. As I mentioned before, yeah, we had this little pop-up here, but we created a reversal candle. I said that yesterday on Monday's video. You can check it out. This was a spinning top, and these are not bullish at all. So it dropped 1.51%. What about ETH, Ethereum? That also dropped a little bit. Another reversal candle there. Copper. Now, this one here. Oh, let me throw on some lines for you. Boom. It's still inside this symmetrical triangle. It did break through at once, but that was a false break, and then it dropped, made a false break under the low. It's kind of stuck inside this triangle here. There's no conclusive direction on this. It's just moving sideways, in my opinion. This is Magnificent 7 ETF. That one is bouncing off the cloud here in the 200, but the faster-moving average is under the slower one, so it's also something I wouldn't be touching here. We experienced a double-top pattern in the Magnificent 7. Will it be able to recover here? That's the question. The red line is still above the green line, but the momentum has declined here, which is good. The momentum to the downside has stopped once we reach the cloud, that support level. As I mentioned before, a lot of times this will be a very strong level of support. All right, so those are the ETFs from the indices there. Now we're going to go through the stocks and ETFs that they discussed in the show. I've highlighted the strongest ones with a blue flag here. There's quite a few of them, actually. There's approximately 13 out of the 19 that have a blue flag, so they were picking some good ones today to talk about. So I didn't list all of them, just a good portion of them. But let's take a look at Bank of America, which, as you can see here in the daily chart, looks very bullish. And the same thing on the weekly, we're coming close to a resistance level of 57.55, though. Citigroup broke that resistance of 135.29, based on that prior high right there on the weekly chart. In fact, I'm going to color that light blue to represent that weekly chart. It's based on this candle right here, okay? So the Citigroup is looking good. CFG is Citizens Financial Group. Now, here we are on the weekly chart, and you can see that we're hitting that 68.7%. It's at 579 level, this prior high. And if you look at the daily chart, see how it touched that? It dropped. All right, so we did not break through that, and so that's not an ideal time to add a position, in my opinion, as it's retreating. Now, it was up 0.93% today, and it did create something called a bullish harami. It's these two candles right here. A large red candle, followed by a small bullish candle. So we might see it start to recover again, but it's, you know, right now we'll be adding positions on that one. EW also came to a resistance level of 89.48. That's Edwards Life Sciences. So that is still, and it created this candle here. A doji is what that's called. So a doji is when you see price open and close at the exact same level. That's what the body represents, okay? So if it's like this candle here, there's the open, and there's the close. The wicks that you see represent the low of the day, and if there's a wick on the top, like here, that's the high of the day, right? So the low of the day, high of the day. If it's a red candle, the open is here. This is the close, closing price. If you go all the way across, you can see what that price was, all right? And there you can see the opening price as well. So I know a lot of you guys are probably stumbling upon this channel for the first time, and this is probably your first introduction to the technical analysis. But it's a great way to review your stocks and ETFs visually, right? Without, you know, making it, what we're trying to do here is make things simple, not complicated. And I know it looks a little bit complicated with all these lines here, but the reality of the situation is once you understand how this indicator works, it's going to make your life a lot easier. It's going to make your decisions a little bit clearer. You're going to feel more confident about the trades that you're placing because you know that you're on the right side of the trade, you know? And you can also, you know, utilize these levels for support levels, resistance levels, maybe for stops if you choose to do that, okay? It's up to you how you want to utilize this indicator, but it's very comprehensive. Now, Goldman Sachs, it's above the moving averages, looking strong here. It's going to come close to this, it came to that resistance level right there of 11.01, and it's still, you know, hitting that. So I'd hold off on Goldman Sachs for the time being. 11.01, is the Dow Jones U.S. Industrial Sector Index. Now, I like what's happening here. We've got higher highs, higher lows. That's perfect. But the problem is we're coming super close to this 163.45 level based on that candle right there. And that goes all the way back to February of 2026, all right? So this candle. So we're now, look at that. We're right there. And so if we can break and surpass 163.45, then it's a different story. This is a weekly level, by the way. So you'd have to wait until Friday, honestly, to get confirmation on a weekly chart, all right? There's the weekly. You can see it more clearly right there. It's building a beautiful pattern, though. And I don't know if you guys have ever heard of this, but it's called a cup and handle. So there's the cup, a handle, all right? Now, this is the line that needs to break, 163.45. Let's see if we can do that soon. JP Morgan on the weekly chart is coming close to a resistance level of 337.25, okay? Based on this candle right here. So here's the daily chart. Very strong. We've got higher highs, higher lows. How far are we? We're approximately 1.8% away from that prior high. So just giving you a heads up. That's not a good target if you're thinking about buying it here, especially after this big move. You know, it's just, it's a very small target, basically. Morgan Stanley, you want to wait for the breakout. Once it breaks through, then you have more confirmation that it's got to, basically, you're going to continue to do the upside. Morgan Stanley, though, did break above this high here. And that happened today. The only problem with this one is, we're looking at a daily chart here, is it's a reversal candle right there. It's a doji. So I wouldn't be adding there based on that. MTUM, we've got a bearish engulfing pattern pulling back here. That's not good either. For MTUM, it's down 2.34. Here's the weekly chart. Look, all of these, however, they passed the test of Ichimoku because the price is above the moving averages in the cloud. So just, you're going to have these pullbacks, these little short-term pullbacks. STT. Now, here's something interesting. State Street Corporation. It's in the financial services sector. ADX is moving up. Green line is above the red line. As I mentioned earlier, that's a bullish state that we're in. In fact, if you look over here, it all started once again. This is a fantastic secondary indicator to use, the directional movement index, especially if you use my setting, which is 9. ADX is 9 as well. I superimposed the ADX 9. If you guys like this charting platform that I'm using, it's called TC2000. And there is a link for it on my YouTube channel. All you need to do is click here, which says 10 more links. And then scroll down. And there's the link for the $25 coupon. You click on it. It brings you to this page. You enter your email address. And as you can see here, you'll receive a $25 coupon towards your TC2000 service, courtesy of Blue Cloud Trading. And basically, click on pricing. So you can see the different software plans here. And click on monthly. $24.99, $49.99, or $99.99 for the different plans that they have. Different features for each one. And if you pay for everything up front for two years biannually, it drops the price significantly. It's down to $18.74. All right. So just giving you guys a heads up about that. Now, let's get back to this chart. STT. I'm sorry. STT. Very bullish chart on the daily. Very bullish chart on the weekly. I like what I'm seeing here. Okay. It looks very, very nice. Nothing negative to say about STT. TER is Teradyne Inc. Here's a nice bullish trend on the weekly chart. And on the daily, it did pull back 5.33%. But it's still holding up above the moving averages in the cloud. Okay. WSM, Williams-Sonoma. That's also in a nice bullish state here on the daily and on the weekly. All right. Whoops. Let me go back. There we go. It's a little far away from the moving averages, but it's still very bullish overall. And XLI, this one broke above the 179.30, but created a reversal candle. A reversal candle is when you see a long wick like this in a small body. That's called a shooting star type candle. All right. It doesn't have a super long wick. Those are even more dangerous, I think, like something that might look, let's see here. Let me see if I can find an example of one that, where it's actually, yeah. I'm not going to go back all the way back. Let's look at a weekly chart. All right. Let's see if we can find one up here somewhere. Let's go back a little bit. I'm not seeing them. I'm not seeing that many. Well, bottom line is it's a negative, it's a very negative pattern. Oh, I just saw one and I lost it. Oh, there it is. Okay. So there's a long shooting star type candle. And you can see the decline that occurred right there. And there's no guarantees that any of these candlesticks are going to, you know, definitely move to the downside. But if you're looking at that daily chart, you know, the wick is longer than the body itself. And we had something similar here yesterday, but it still made its way above that 179.30 level. And the directional movement index is looking quite bullish as well. I just don't like adding positions on reversal type candles because there's higher probabilities that price may pull back again. But we got above that 179.30, so it looks really good. I like that. Let's see here. Robinhood. Now, by the way, these other stocks I'm about to show you do not have a blue flag because there's something technically wrong as far as the Ichimoku goes. So let's look at the daily chart on either the daily or the weekly chart. And so it doesn't, won't get that blue flag. On the daily chart, it does still look bullish. Okay. Prices above the moving averages. I don't like the fact that we're hitting that 200 day right there. It looks like it might stall and pull back. You look at the weekly chart, we're inside the cloud. All right. So that's the bearish part about it. JBHT looks great on the weekly chart. Nothing negative here for the JB Hunt transport services. But on the daily chart, today, we dropped under the nine period. So that's also negative. Overall, it's a pretty bullish looking chart, though. SCHW on the daily chart has entered the cloud. That's a bullish situation. But when you're inside the cloud or under the 200 and the 200 is lurking right above, I would not be adding positions here. And if you look at the weekly chart, it's still under the 26 period and inside the cloud. So that's also not a buy signal in there. Look at SPCX. Well, with SPCX, it's a new stock. So there's not a lot of data here. Two weeks here. Here's a daily chart. Three days, right? This was from Friday, June 12th, Monday and Tuesday. Not crazy about this long wick. Might this be the end of the pop-up here? Potentially. Potentially. And let's take a look at a shorter time frame so we can get more information about this. So you start switching to a four-hour. You can see what's happened here. We've got a shooting star. We've got a reversal candle, right? In this four-hour candle. Switch it to a two-hour. All right. You can see how we're basically kind of stuck in this consolidation here. All right. Today. And if you look at a 30-minute, see how the last couple of hours, right? Price got under the nine period for SPCX. How about 15-minute crossover here? Negative crossover. So we haven't had a negative crossover. This is the first negative crossover on the 15-minute chart, 15-minute chart for space exploration technologies. Look at the direction movement index on the 15-minute chart. Okay. See how that's moving up. Again, tomorrow's going to be another day. We might see another gap up because that's what a lot of times will happen. Here's yesterday's closing price. This was the gap up in the morning. But it is something to consider, right? Well, it was only up 4.77% by the end of the day. All right. Let's keep going in comparison to the other days, okay? WFC, Wells Fargo Company. Looks interesting here. That's a 15-minute chart. Let's look at the weekly chart. It's inside the cloud. On the daily chart, it's breaking above the 200. Everything looks bullish on the daily, but the weekly is its weakness. And if you don't have confirmation on both time frames, in my opinion, you have a weaker trade. All right. Let's take a look at XLF. So this one here, for example, has popped above the clap for a couple of days now. The faster-moving average just crossed above the 26 period, which is good. The only negative here in the weekly chart is the Chiku Span, this lagging line here, that white line. So if we look at the current price on the weekly, it's still under that candle. We want that white line above the candle. You look at the daily chart, everything looks pretty good. Prices above the moving averages. It popped through the 200. We have a bullish cloud. And the directional movement index looks very bullish, too. So, yeah, very nice. I like what I'm seeing overall. AMPG. Now, this was one of our members' requests. Let's take a look at this one. That was up 17.07% today. This is a daily chart you're looking at. And this is a very volatile stock. It moves quite a bit in one day. So it's not something that I would recommend to beginner traders because if it does drop, imagine it dropping 17, 20% in one day as well, like it did the prior day here. Let's see. How much was that drop? Let's take a look from the opening price. It looks like it was about a 15.7% drop after this reversal candle. So that happened yesterday. And today we have another reversal. Now, the pattern that I'm seeing here is called a bullish harami. It's when you have basically this large red candle followed by a small bullish candle that's inside the red candle. Okay? So it fits within the confines of the opening and closing price. So there's a higher probability that's going to move up. Again, there's no guarantees in the market, right? But I like what I'm seeing overall with the chart. It looks good on the daily chart. You look at the weekly chart. You know, there's only like a couple of days in this candle that's formed. So this is still in the formation process. All right? It has not completely formed yet. We won't know what this looks like until Friday. So we can't really make too much of an assessment from the weekly chart quite yet. It's more that when we get closer to Thursday and Friday that we'll have a better assessment of what it looks like on the weekly. But the daily chart does look better here. So I'm liking the fact that it was up 17.07%. All right, guys. That's going to do it for this video. Thanks for watching. Thanks for supporting the channel. Hit the like button. Subscribe. Share this video if you know someone that you might think might like it. And I'll catch you guys all in the next video. [01:00:49] Speaker 9: The Ichimoku's guiding light. Blue cloud trading through the night. And I'll catch you guys all in the next video. [01:01:29] Speaker ?: And I'll catch you guys all in the next video. Bye.