UN warns climate change could force millions to move — DW News

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: As more than 90,000 delegates from some 200 countries gather in the Turkish resort city of Antalya for the COP31 climate summit, a new warning is put migration at the center of the climate debate. Every year, extreme weather forces millions of people from their homes, like in Nepal, where thousands died and many more lost their homes after catastrophic floods last August. Many other countries around the world also face increasingly severe storms, droughts and wildfires. We've all seen the pictures. And while climate change alone is not the cause of these disasters, scientists say rising global temperatures are making many weather-related events more frequent and more intense. The UN's Migration Agency, the International Organization for Migration, now says nearly 30 million disaster-related displacements were recorded last year alone. Its Director General, Amy Pope, warns that more than 200 million people are now living in communities vulnerable to climate impacts. So, are we looking at a future wave of climate migration on an unprecedented scale? Which regions are most at risk? And what's the difference between being temporarily displaced by a flood or storm and permanently leaving a home that is no longer safe to live in? The IOM argues that governments are spending billions on border controls while failing to invest enough in climate adaption measures that could help vulnerable communities stay where they are. But the link between climate change and migration is not straightforward. Poverty, conflict and weak governance also play an important role in determining who moves, where and why. Now, are you living in one of those at-risk areas? And how can we prepare better today to stop humanitarian and migration crises tomorrow? We'll discuss those questions in a moment with an expert on disaster displacement. But first, let's go to our climate correspondent, Tim Schaunberg, who is following the summit for us in Antalya. Tim, you're in Antalya, but you're not at the conference venue. Where are you and why? [00:02:18] Tim Schaunberg: I'm out here in the city, in the old town of Antalya, where around 4,000 people gathered to take the streets for more climate protection and literally to express their anger of no climate action. That's what we have to say. There are several groups here. Maybe you can see some of them coming. It's a long march over a kilometer long, I would guess, that we're seeing here. And it's different political groups that are gathering. It's not only about climate. It's about the Turkish opposition, which faces repressions. It's about politicians here at the climate summit to take action, finally, in the 31st climate change conference of the United Nations. And they're tired and angry for having to demand action over and over again. [00:03:11] Speaker 1: Tim, you said you estimate that around 4,000 people are there at this protest. Compared with around 90,000 people attending the conference, 90,000 delegates. Now, you've covered climate change for more than 10 years. Do you feel climate change is getting less attention as people focus on wars, the economy and other global crises? [00:03:35] Tim Schaunberg: Well, that really depends on the location, on the media and on the circumstances. But definitely these people here want to change that. And yes, they are also angry about climate not being at the top priority, at least of some governments. And that's why they're here. That's why they are taking the streets. That's why they are shouting very, very loud. Maybe you can hear the people behind us, different groups from civil society we see here. And as I said, it's not only about climate here. We see huge repressions against climate activists, environmentalists in Turkey, but also against human rights defenders, against the opposition. And they are also taking this opportunity to express their anger, their uncomfort with the current government in Turkey, but also with the international climate diplomacy taking place close by here in the conference center of Antalya. [00:04:38] Speaker 1: Now, climate change activism is global and well organized. What are climate groups and NGOs telling you? How are they responding to this drop in attention? [00:04:53] Tim Schaunberg: Well, that's a, they, they are, they are nodding with their heads, some are just angry. Some are sad, some are scared, people we talk to. I mean, we see an international community being here. And of course, there's also people from, for example, low, low lying on, and they are literally scared of the survival of their country, of their home, and also of their future, obviously. So the sentiment is, is very, is very different here. They express themselves in very different ways, but mostly by taking the streets here, posting about it, the climate summit here in Antalya has a political side, but there's also a side of a networking, like a venue of where NGOs come together, where activists come together, where scientists come together, and also the economy, businesses come together to discuss how to reach progress in the field of green economy, but also climate protection. So what I hear and what I see, what you can see here in Antalya, is that these fields are all being played and all being entered by people who want a, are in favor of a future, which respects the climate and the environment. [00:06:07] Speaker 1: We can now speak a bit more about climate migration with Atlee Stolberg. He is the head of the Secretariat of the Platform on Disaster Displacement. That's an intergovernmental initiative of around 20 countries, the EU and UN agencies. Atlee, when people hear the term climate migration, they often imagine masses of people crossing at the national borders, but what does climate-related displacement actually look like today? [00:06:43] Speaker 3: Thank you for having me. And very often we, at least from the platform, we talk about disaster displacement, but the point of linking displacement to the adverse effect of climate change is very good. So we can also talk about climate displacement. So what we know is about 30 million people are displaced every year, very often in the context of sudden onset events. Hurricanes, tropical cyclones, earthquakes, floods, and other hazards that are sudden in nature. But we also know that the adverse effect of climate change is also having an impact on other forms of mobility, think about sea level rise, think about glacial melting, and we know that much more people are moving or displaced in the context of disaster and adverse effect of climate change. But in average, the last decade, we have seen about 30 million people displaced in the context of disaster itself. So that's a huge number. [00:07:39] Speaker 1: Now, these 30 million disaster displacements that were recorded, for example, last year, what typically happens to these people? How many were able to return home and how many were permanently displaced? [00:07:55] Speaker 3: That's a very good question. And I think that highlights a data gap or a knowledge gap. We know that normally people are able to return back very often after a storm or a hurricane. People have been evacuated to safer area and been able to return back. One challenge is that we know very little about those that have not been able to return back and the number of people displaced. So we are very often talk about solutions. You know, do we really know where the people have found solution to the displacement? What we do know, and looking a little to the history, Hurricane Mitch in Central America in 1998, tropical cyclones in Asia in the 2000, is that even after 10 to 20 years, people may still remain displaced. And the challenge we are facing there is that people are falling off the radar screen. They are falling into poverty and are not longer seen as a priority of the international community or national governments. [00:08:57] Speaker 1: Now, the director general of the IOM, the International Organization for Migration, warns that more than 200 million people live in climate-vulnerable communities. That's a staggering number. How seriously should we take these figures and what does it tell us? [00:09:15] Speaker 3: I think that's an indication of what we are facing, particularly in the context of global warming and adverse effects of climate change. And I think the number you mentioned is very good that it's phrased that at risk of displacement. And that's the point. There is so much we can actually do to prevent that from happening. We can do something about mitigation, as we talked about under the framework convention, reduce greenhouse gases. We can scale up adaptation, support resilience. So those 200 million are not then compelled to move or forced to move against the will. But clearly, we are also at the point where we are running out of options for resilience, adaptation and risk reduction. We have hazards that are so overwhelming and so devastating that people will have to move. And that's what we refer to very often under the convention as loss and damage. We are beyond adaptation, unfortunately. [00:10:13] Speaker 1: Can you name the top three countries that are affected by this most urgently? [00:10:22] Speaker 3: Now, I think this is a global phenomenon, so it's hard to highlight a country. But maybe we can talk more about categories of countries. So we have small island developing states. They have facing existential challenges related to, for example, sea level rise. So any small island developing state will face huge risk of displacement. And we have at all nations, such as Tuvalu, Kiribas or Marshall Island. And you can imagine highest point, two, three, four meters above sea level. What a sea level rise we are facing, what will do with these countries. We also have least developed countries in Africa and elsewhere where the institutional capacity, the governance and maybe the development pathway are not as strong as in order. So these are a second category of countries where we will see more displacement and mobility. And I think recently we have also seen landlocked countries and high level mountains countries. The devastating glacial melting we saw in Nepal is also clearly a third category of countries that are facing huge risk if you are unable to, one, reduce emissions. And secondly, scale up significantly financing for adaptation and development. [00:11:40] Speaker 1: Well, talking about financing, that's one of the big contentious issues there at COP31. Who do you see there who's taking responsibility? And who do you see there putting on the brakes on financing? [00:11:56] Speaker 3: No, I represent a state-led initiative, so I don't think I can highlight a particular state. But maybe we can phrase it that the needs are far greater than what is on the table. And there was these new quantifiable goals on financing adopted two years ago. And clearly, particularly if we talk about losses and damages and the needs that have been identified, the fund that has been set off, it's called the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, has now been capitalized around eight, nine hundred million US dollars. And it's clearly not sufficient to meet the needs. And I think there is an expectation among developing countries that developed countries should contribute more to both adaptation financing, what we call means of implementation, technology, financing and capacity building, because there are an argument that there is a historical responsibility to combat climate change. So this is a very sensitive or it's at the center of the conversation here at the United Contrast of the Parties 31st Conference. [00:13:10] Speaker 1: Now, COP31 has been billed as the implementation COP. If this summit ends without significantly more adaptation funding, what are the real world consequences over the next couple of years? [00:13:25] Speaker 3: No, you will see less adaptation programming. You will see less programming around losses and damages. You will see probably less mitigation also from developing countries, because they do not have the means to, for example, transition to a green economy, where any transition to a green economy will also have losers and winners. So you will see what I would project. You will see that we are losing out on all the key objectives of what we try to aim. One is reduce emissions, adapt to the adverse effect of climate change, but also respond to losses and damage. And what is on the table is clearly not sufficient. [00:14:08] Speaker 1: Atlas Albeck there, the head of the Secretariat of the Platform on Disaster Displacement. Thank you very much for your input. Thank you for having me. And that's it from us here in Berlin. Now tell us what you think. Are you worried about how your part of the world will be affected by climate change? Do you think the climate conferences achieve enough? And who should pay for adaption to a warmer world? Tell us in the comments and leave a like and subscribe if you want. That's it. See you all soon.