Trump faces new challenges: Supreme Court, GOP divisions — On Balance Full Show

[0:00] Great show, Dusty and Chris, who's off at the fire call. Friends, welcome to the program. [0:05] European soccer fans right now are loving America more than most Americans. [0:11] They are drinking all of our beer and raving about our cheap gas and housing prices. [0:16] In moments, Bill O'Reilly on whether President Trump is fueling or stopping [0:20] the political movement tearing America apart. And this is our Why It Matters segment tonight. [0:25] As we know this week, it is Freedom Week. America is marking its 250th birthday this weekend. [0:33] And this country is great for a number of reasons. We have Waffle House, freedom of speech, [0:39] Buc-ee's, football, the Second Amendment. I could go all night. No, America is not perfect. [0:45] As the founders wrote, we are in pursuit of a more perfect union. But it's a lot better than [0:50] any alternative. Even France limits air conditioning, is now suspending sporting events [0:56] in public drinking because of the heat. Don't take my word for it. Ask all the Europeans [1:01] coming here for the World Cup. European soccer fans marvel at the splendor of America's suburbs, [1:06] headlines the Wall Street Journal. They are discovering much of what they've been told [1:11] about America by the media and politicians is wrong. The latest example comes from France, [1:17] where one politician is blaming Americans and our air conditioning for the heat wave that [1:22] has now killed 1,300 people in a country they refuse to allow air conditioning. [1:27] No tourism board could come up with better advertising for the USA than European social [1:33] media videos. Meanwhile, Americans are feeling the opposite. Recent headlines, [1:37] American pride falls to 25-year record low. Americans' pride in U.S. history and democracy drops. [1:43] New polls show Americans' complicated feelings about the country 250 years on. American pride [1:50] has fallen off a cliff. The headlines aren't wrong. Gallup finds that just 33 percent of adults [1:55] are extremely proud to be American. In 2004, that number was 70 percent. Ninety-three percent of [2:03] Republicans are extremely or very proud to be an American. Just 27 percent of Democrats say the same [2:08] thing. One of the few things Democrats actually agree on these days is how awful America is because [2:14] of Donald Trump. And to them, the experiment is all but ruined. Socialism is now rising in this [2:20] country. More Democrats like socialism than like capitalism. It's already taken over New York City, [2:25] coming next for Washington, D.C. Here was President Trump earlier today. [2:29] Because it's not socialism, it's really communism. They use the word social democrat because it sounds so [2:35] nice. But it's really communism you're talking about. I think it's the biggest threat to our nation. [2:42] There is maybe since our founding. The founding started 250 years ago tonight. Tonight, Thomas [2:50] Jefferson turned in his Declaration of Independence to the Continental Congress in Philadelphia. [2:55] Since then, everybody in the world has been trying to come to the United States legally [2:59] and illegally. Democrats believe Trump is ruining the American dream. Republicans say America is going [3:06] to become Cuba if the Democrats take over. If 250 years of history and a group of drunk European [3:12] tourists has taught us anything, both Republicans and Democrats, they are both likely wrong. [3:20] Bill O'Reilly is with us now, hosting with me the News Nation special Patriots and Plotters, [3:25] Bill O'Reilly's Unsung Heroes and Villains of the American Revolution, this Thursday, 9 p.m. [3:31] Eastern Eastern. Also, a new book coming out in this fall called Confronting America. Bill, [3:37] have I correctly diagnosed the problem? [3:42] Yeah, I'd say you are doing broad strokes because there is a reason that this is all happening. [3:50] So on a special that we're doing on News Nation on Thursday, what people don't understand, [3:56] because they're not taught in school anything about civics and history, is that 50 percent half [4:04] of the colonists wanted to stay with the king. They didn't like the new vision. They didn't want [4:13] freedom. They wanted to stay in the comfy arms of the monarchy. That's why there was a war, [4:20] a long war. And this has happened in the Civil War with slavery. And it happens periodically [4:27] throughout history of our country. What's different now is a mentality, a feeling that the country [4:39] owes us something. The country owes us, okay? And there is a large voter population, mostly in the urban [4:53] centers, who believe that. They believe, hey, you owe me. Rather than I'm buying into the opportunity [5:02] situation, I'm going to work hard, and I'm going to make a life for myself that's better than my [5:11] parents or whatever. No, no. No, no. That's too difficult. We don't want to do that. We want it [5:19] handed to us. And there are a variety of people responsible for that, craven politicians, terrible [5:27] parents, schools that are ideological rather than educational. But the combination has grown this [5:38] point of view that, hey, come on, where's mine? Let's have it. And that's what the progressives, [5:48] the communists, because Mandani is a communist. That's what he wants. He wants to control the means [5:53] of production. He's an Islamist too. That's what they sell. Yeah, well, he's an Islamist too, and [5:58] there's an interaction there. Peter Laffin wrote this. Laffin is by no means a fainting-heart liberal. [6:07] Trump had a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to delegitimize the opposition after 2024 through [6:11] effective conservative governance and honorable comportment. But he couldn't escape his impulsiveness, [6:17] and he could very well go down as a figure who ushered in socialism in the United States. Is he wrong? [6:26] Yes. I mean, that's just foolish, that whole statement. What Donald Trump did was he came in [6:36] to fix problems. He's a dealmaker. And the first problem he fixed was a massive 15 million human [6:46] beings pouring into this country with very little attachment to the country. So they don't understand [6:53] what the capitalism system is. They don't understand the traditions of America. I mean, [6:58] I'm saying they, there are exceptions, of course. So you're talking about, you're talking about the [7:03] illegal immigrants don't, yeah. Well, what's interesting to me though is, is that people who [7:08] are voting for the socialists are the white, over-educated, over-credentialed, under-successful [7:15] baristas, who your point says they think America owes them something. It was Marco Rubio, [7:22] the child of immigrants from Cuba, who I think described it best. Take a listen. [7:27] I hope for America is what it's always been. I think it's the hope I hope we all share. [7:30] We want it to continue to be the place where anyone from anywhere can achieve anything, [7:34] where you're not limited by the circumstances of your birth, by the color of your skin, by your [7:39] ethnicity. But frankly, it's a place where you are able to overcome challenges and achieve your full [7:43] potential. So is that loss now? Well, Rubio is speaking from experience because his parents [7:54] were thrown out of Cuba and or his grandparents. But I'll submit to you that California is a perfect [8:00] example of what I'm saying, is that here's a state, the largest in the country, that has literally been [8:07] taken over by progressives that use outside methods to win at the ballot box. All right? It's the biggest [8:17] fraud I've ever seen in U.S. electoral history, where you can get a driver's license if you're from [8:26] Guatemala and you're not here legally, and then use the driver's license to register to vote. I mean, [8:32] come on. So they flood the zone. Right. I get where the election's coming from. But I'm trying, [8:40] going back to these numbers, which I think is amazing, the percentage of people who- [8:43] Yeah, but those numbers are not like the migrant numbers. [8:47] Right. But 70, back when you were doing The Factor, when The Factor was at its heyday, 2004, [8:53] 70 percent of Americans were very proud. Now that number's at 33 percent. What has happened? And you're [9:01] saying it's all the fault of Democrats, correct? Well, it's all coming out of the Democratic Party. [9:09] The numbers for Republicans are 70 percent and up. They're proud of their country. So obviously, [9:15] that's the dissenting party, the Democrats. But the numbers of yuppies, we'll bring that [9:22] word back, who I don't want to compete, they pale in comparison to the people who are told they're [9:31] victims. And that's big in schools now. You're a victim. The oligarchs, this is Bernie Sanders, [9:39] they make it impossible for you to succeed in America. America's not a good country because [9:44] the billionaires get all the money and you don't get anything. That's what they peddle. They're peddling [9:50] all this stuff. And people who don't understand our culture, don't understand how corporations work, [9:56] they buy it. And that's where the center of this far-left movement is. And again, California proves it. [10:07] Now, what's interesting about these numbers, to your point, though, is that when there's a Democrat in [10:15] office, the number of Democrats who think they're proud of the country goes up, goes down when there's [10:19] a Republican office. Among Republicans, the number stays pretty much the same. Republicans are proud of [10:24] the country, regardless of who's in power. But you say it's people who don't understand America. These [10:29] are the people who are the most virulent advocates for socialism are often the most educated. And what [10:35] I'm trying to get at here is, how is it that 250 years on, this idea of socialism has taken over? [10:43] Is this... You equated earlier to the revolution when there was a long war and to the civil war when [10:49] there was a long war? If that's where we're at 250 years in because of socialism, that is a whole [10:56] different viewpoint of what America is compared to the European tourists who are happy about cheap gas. [11:03] Well, it's a whole different world. So the world my parents inhabited was post-World War II, [11:11] and they got through the depression, and nobody was handing anybody anything. They were going to work, [11:16] and they worked hard. Now you've got social media telling you all kinds of nonsense. You've got [11:23] derelict schools run by teachers unions that are communist. I mean, you've got powerful forces [11:30] telling urchins in the classroom, hey, you live in a crummy country. Hey, you don't have a chance. [11:38] That's what's happening. So we're living in a different world that the baby boomers lived in. [11:43] We're living in a world of entitlement, and we'll give you stuff. And that's the way to power in this [11:48] country. That's how you get power. And Sanders is the godfather of this, Bernie Sanders. How many [11:55] times have you heard him say it? Donald Trump, though, promised people a lot of stuff during [12:00] the election. He's not some massive conservative. No, but he's not an ideologue either. He's a deal [12:08] maker. So he sees a problem like the border and he fixes it. I mean, he's not interested in ideology [12:14] like Bernie Sanders is. He wants to fix it. You don't think Trump has anything, any, [12:20] Trump has nothing, no responsibility here for, for this lack of patriotic feeling. [12:27] I think his responsibility is that because of his manner, he's alienated a lot of Americans [12:38] who simply don't like his presentation. So they don't get beyond that. [12:43] They can't get beyond it. They don't understand, for example, that going into Iran was a good thing [12:51] because Iran is evil and he confronted evil. Trump did. So they can't get beyond Donald Trump's [13:00] presentation. In that way, he loses persuadability, but he's not out there as an ideologue. He doesn't [13:09] care about that. He cares about racking up victories, victory after victory. [13:13] Yeah, you're right. He's not an ideologue. No, that's different as compared to most [13:17] presidents we've had. Bill O'Reilly, great context as well. Bill and I are back [13:22] for America's 250th birthday, Patriots and Plotters. Bill O'Reilly teaches Revolutionary War [13:28] history as it has never been taught before. As a matter of fact, George Washington is going to show up [13:34] as well only here on News Nation Thursday, 9 p.m. Today's Supreme Court rulings mean two justices [13:43] need to go fast, like before the midterms. [13:46] The slaughter case was the big case today. That was really a big case because it gave [13:57] strength to presidents and strength to the presidency. A very important case. [14:02] It's been going on for almost 100 years. Think of that. And this was the ruling that [14:06] really topped everything by a lot today. Donald Trump loves nothing more than winning [14:14] and nothing more than winning at the Supreme Court. But today's Supreme Court decisions [14:18] threw a lot of cold water on the idea of a conservative lock. Yes, there was a big win for Trump. [14:22] But in one day, the court decided that states can count mail-in ballots that arrive late, [14:27] so long as they are postmarked on time. Huge blow to Republicans ahead of the midterms. [14:33] Court also rejected the president's efforts to overturn the E. Jean Carroll verdict, and they [14:38] blocked him from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, but handed him a major win, you heard overturning [14:43] 90 years of precedent, expanding presidential firing power over other independent agencies. [14:49] This all focuses attention on the Supreme Court, specifically, though, the two oldest conservative [14:55] justices, Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas. Many Republicans will tell you, most privately, [15:00] that they want them to resign. Because if they don't resign before the midterms and Democrats take [15:05] over the Senate, well, then it's very possible that a Republican pick would not get through [15:11] the Senate. With us now, Kerry Severino, president of the Judicial Crisis Network, co-author of Justice [15:16] on Trial. All right, Kerry, give us the insight. How much are Republicans talking about this Justice, [15:24] Thomas Alito danger between now and November? You know, I think at this point, I haven't heard that [15:33] many conversations about it, because the justices have made it more than clear they're planning on [15:39] staying where they are. Justice Thomas, for years, has been saying that he plans on making their lives [15:44] miserable for 43 years, just like they made his miserable for the 43 years before he came on the [15:49] court. That leaves him a little more time to go. And Justice Alito seems to have telegraphed [15:55] as well that he's not planning to retire this year. I think the most important thing we could do then [16:00] to make sure that we have a good Supreme Court is to make sure that people go out and vote for great [16:08] senators at the midterms so that we can keep confirming not just Supreme Court justices, [16:12] but all of the judicial nominees. Fair enough. And there's still a lot of federal [16:17] judgeships open right now. If Trump does not get the Senate, then that's a real problem. [16:24] My reporting at least shows that there is some pressure on them to resign, but it's all private. [16:30] People are afraid to say that publicly, and they would rather sort of try to offer, hey, look, [16:35] if you resign, you're going to kind of get the, we'll give you one of your clerks as a replacement treatment. [16:43] You know, I don't think we've seen that it's ever been very effective to publicly attempt to force [16:51] justices to resign. They have life tenure. It's, that's really ultimately a very personal decision [16:58] that each of the justices is going to have to make for himself. So, uh, you know, I, I think for [17:04] all of the, for all of us, you know, armchair politicking it, uh, that, that always looks very [17:09] different from the justices perspective themselves. Yeah. Play this out for us though, that if one [17:14] of these justices leaves the court and there's an opening, and now it's a, an eight person court, [17:21] um, it means you still have to get to five conservatives, um, to get a majority. I know [17:28] there's this whole idea that it's a six, three court, but five getting to five is a lot harder, [17:34] when you don't have one to spare, especially when you've lost one of the staunch conservatives, [17:38] right? All of a sudden, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Gorsuch, that, that makes it very much not [17:44] a lock for Donald Trump or Republicans. Well, you know, honestly, I think because we're, [17:51] we have such high expectations for these justices, it can be really disappointing when in any one [17:56] decision doesn't, we feel like they don't vote the way I would have on this case or that case. [18:00] But the fact of the matter is our Supreme court majority we have right now is the best [18:04] in living memory. So, uh, in, in, I would say justice Alito and. Well, [18:09] the best for conservatives are probably the most reliable of, uh, uh, among the, [18:13] unquestionably, unquestionably the most reliable, you lose one of them, you, you know, you're more, [18:20] you're more confident than I am. I think if you lose one of them, you end up in a very different, [18:24] a very different makeup. Uh, fascinating to watch. Carrie Severino. Thank you very much. [18:28] I think if they retired, they would, they might do so. And yeah, conditional appointment of someone [18:32] else. So yeah. All right. Well, we'll, we'll see if that, if Thomas was making that deal today, [18:37] from the union hall to the faculty lounge, I will explain the socialist movement to you. [18:42] Like you have never heard it before tomorrow. The socialists have another chance to take over [18:56] the democratic party. They're batting pretty well right now. This time it's in Colorado, [19:00] 29 year old democratic socialist, Melet Kiros is challenging someone who has been in office since [19:06] the year she was born Diana to get. And what does Kiros do for a living? Well, she's a PhD student. [19:13] She used to be a lawyer, but got fired for hating Israel and took up baristine. [19:17] So if we zoom out here for a second, the democratic party was built by people who got their hands [19:23] dirty for a living dock workers, coal miners, steel plant workers. Now the ideology and goals of the [19:29] party are not cooked up by the working class, but in the classrooms. The democratic party heart and [19:36] soul used to be the labor movement. It used to be the unions. Uh, it's not anymore. The heart and soul [19:41] the democratic party at the universities and especially the elite universities. So the faculty [19:46] lounge has become a strong part of the democratic party and faculty lounge politics have become a [19:51] strong part of the democratic party. Yeah. Two of the most radical democrats running this cycle, [19:58] Dara Liza Chevalier and Melet Kiros are PhD students in what I don't know. This shift towards [20:05] faculty lounge politics, it seems unusual. And then when you look at history, it is totally [20:12] explainable and inevitable. In the 1970s, the radical communist weather underground engaged [20:17] in a bombing campaign against the US government. Their goal was to end the Vietnam War, remake the [20:22] United States into some kind of Marxist utopia like Cuba. So why do we bring up Bill Ayers? Well, [20:30] guess where most of their leadership ended up after they resurfaced, got out of prison, academia, [20:36] teaching at elite schools like Columbia and the University of Chicago. Now you understand the [20:42] connection. The students are becoming the teachers, the new radicals hate cops, love the Palestinians, [20:47] embrace Islam. And just like their teachers, want more free stuff. Democratic strategist Madeleine [20:54] in Somerville is with us and host of the Ross Kaminsky show on KDA in Denver, Ross Kaminsky himself. [21:01] Normally it's ladies first, but Ross, I want to start with you. In New York, the people we see voting [21:07] for the socialists are white, overeducated, mostly young and unhappy women and yuppies who want to be [21:15] cool and feel like they're part of something because they're disaffected with life. I left Denver before [21:21] most of those people showed up, but it feels like that is the same crew in downtown Denver who are [21:28] going to vote for this woman. I think it absolutely is. And as you noted, [21:32] this particular race is the first congressional district here in Colorado. It is essentially [21:38] Denver and it is exactly the kind of people that you were talking about, young, overeducated and [21:45] and all that stuff. And I think in addition to enjoying socialism, I think there is also a massive [21:52] anti-incumbent mood. And so, you know, Mila Kiros has a lot going for her. She's still [21:58] very unappealing in a lot of other ways. So we'll see. [22:02] Yeah. The thing that bounds all of these people together that, to be fair, probably didn't quite [22:08] at least, you know, outwardly bond the Weather Underground and the Black Panthers, [22:13] although they were all aligned with the PLO and the Palestinians, is this virulent anti-Semitism [22:20] Jew hatred. And Madeline, the Queers for Palestine thing always confused me until now, [22:27] because I didn't take it that it was just an outright hatred of Jews. Is that the only explanation [22:34] we can take from this? No, it's not the only one. I am sure that for some people it is. And as a [22:41] Jewish person, it sincerely bothers me. But I do think that there are people... [22:46] But you don't mind being a Democrat still? [22:47] I do not. Specifically because regulated. I believe that the corporations are the reason [22:56] why we're not being, why we're not able to pursue life, liberty and happiness. I think that it's their [23:02] fault. And so do the Democratic Socialists of America. They're knocking on doors. They're going out [23:07] in their own communities and figuring out what matters to people. And it's working. They're doing [23:13] the work that politicians should be doing. And instead of, you know, like the Republicans have, [23:18] just kind of data mining to figure out what the best populist message might be from our Facebooks. [23:23] Right? They're going out and doing the work. [23:25] Okay. I see. Well, yeah, the Tea Party people went out and did work too when they won [23:31] incumbency. But you're right that there is this demand for it. All right, Ross, what is so appealing [23:37] about that to the unsuccessful, young, white, over-credentialed, unhappy folks? [23:45] I think that forever, when people have been unsuccessful, they always look to blame somebody. [23:52] And typically it's been the Jews. I'm Jewish as well. But typically, typically it's been the Jews. [23:58] And I think one thing that's maybe not as different as some people think, [24:03] although you touched on it in the opening to this segment, I went to Columbia University [24:09] in the 80s. And faculty politics then- [24:12] They probably don't claim you as a graduate now, do they? [24:15] I know. It's kind of funny. Faculty politics then was exactly the same as it is now. [24:20] But what's happened back then, faculty politics was not dominating the Democratic Party [24:25] the way that it is now. The other thing that's happened is we've had [24:28] essentially a generation of college, but even high school, not teaching young kids [24:34] about the importance of capitalism, of freedom, of the founding, things that you talked with [24:39] Bill O'Reilly about earlier in the show. So they don't have the intellectual ammunition. [24:43] That part of the early education isn't there. Madeline, I'm going to end with you on this. [24:49] Help me understand why people shouldn't be scared of somebody like Abdul Al-Sayed, who's talking about [24:55] being dangerous to a CEO of a healthcare company when a CEO of a healthcare company was just murdered. [25:00] Yeah. I think what he's saying is in an economy and in a Trump administration, [25:08] I am dangerous to the people who want to support the people who are upholding that faction of society, [25:15] right? The people who are passing legislation that supports those deep state interests, like [25:20] insurance companies, like big oil, like the military industrial company. [25:25] If Abdul Al-Sayed wins in Michigan, very likely they'll win the primary. You think about Ann Arbor [25:31] in these deep blue areas, same with Wisconsin. But if these folks win the general election, [25:36] then you will be right in terms of where the anger in America is and how visceral it is, [25:42] even if you choose to believe that America as a whole is not these things that so many of these [25:47] socialists pretend. But I think it's important that they're drawing a line. [25:50] I think it's important that they're drawing a line. [25:53] They're not drawing any line. The socialists are drawing a line that they are willing to [25:59] defy everything that makes America good. And not only that, talk about hating the Jews as they go [26:03] along, but that's a different conversation. Madeline Ross, thank you very much. [26:06] Mom, Donnie's having Shabbat dinner with the Chabad rabbis. [26:08] Not fooling anybody. That doesn't mean anything. There were a lot of Jews who supported the Nazis, [26:15] too. We move on. As Democrats deal with an ideological war, Trump is still dealing with a [26:23] real one. After a weekend of trading strikes in Iran, this game of tug of war has ended back in [26:29] now a ceasefire, sort of, if you want to call it that, with both sides agreeing to halt strikes ahead [26:34] of a meeting on the memorandum of agreement tomorrow. There'll be a meeting on that tomorrow. [26:39] Doha. And they're going to Qatar. I think they've already left or they're just about getting ready [26:47] to leave. So we'll see how that goes. But we're doing very well on that front. But the meeting in [26:54] Doha is going to be perhaps important, perhaps not. We're going to find out. [27:00] Trump's problem with Iran isn't the regime or the on again, off again, on again, now off again war. [27:08] It's that his own party is split, and Iran knows this. Inside the White House, the war has shaken up [27:15] this apprentice-style tryout for 2028. Vance is publicly undermining our relationship with Israel, [27:20] embracing Qatar, sometimes embracing the Iran's world of view. Rubio is trying to box out Iran by [27:26] making a deal between Lebanon and Israel. That is more realistic. Bring in Mark McKinnon, former [27:31] political advisor, creator, executive producer of The Circus on Showtime. Mark, it is good to see you. [27:37] Have we ever seen a president where his own party was so split on his foreign policy? [27:45] It's fascinating, Leland. First of all, there's a saying that is pretty true, that Iran never won a [27:52] war but never lost a negotiation. So that's showing up every day. [27:57] You know who said that was Donald Trump back in about 2019 or something, but go ahead. [28:03] I love it. That makes it even more relevant and true. But the fact is that making those [28:10] negotiations tougher is exactly what you pointed out, which is that there's not even a clear consensus [28:15] within his own party or even within his own administration. You have Rubio, as you said, [28:20] dealing with Lebanon and Israel. And then you've got Vance sort of taking on a bombastic approach. [28:27] And saying that the IRGC are transformed and they're different and we're making these offside [28:32] gentlemen's agreements, which is just such a different approach than Rubio coming from his [28:38] diplomatic school. But I think that that's the way that Trump likes it. But we're just... [28:44] What worries me is that we're in a negotiation phase. And I'm just worried that neither one will [28:48] work, because, as Donald Trump said, Iran just never loses a negotiation. As long as we're in a [28:54] negotiation phase, I'm worried about it, especially when there's not unity in his own party. [28:59] So who does this work out well for? The Calci markets, the prediction markets over the past week [29:05] or so, Vance's chances as he has taken this outsized role, this leadership role in Iran, [29:11] Vance's chances of winning the nomination have spiked significantly over Rubio. What does that tell us? [29:17] Well, I think that tells us that you shouldn't bet on Calci. I think that's just a reflection of Vance [29:24] being in the news more. And he's just been more prominent and more dominant in the media, [29:28] which is exactly, I think, what Rubio wants. He doesn't want this hot potato. He's happy to hand [29:33] it over to Vance. But it's just a matter of, I think, being out there in the media more. [29:37] But, again, I just think that, ultimately, it's a negotiation that is, you know, it's just every [29:44] day we get a new story about it. And I just think long-term, it's tough. You know, I'm reminded, Leland, [29:49] of the toughest call that George Bush made during the Iraq War, which was the surge. [29:56] You know, and that was so politically unpopular at the time to double down. And I just keep thinking [30:01] back that, you know, that Trump was so afraid of the politics of this that he didn't go in deeper and, [30:07] you know, maybe put boots on the ground, do whatever he did to actually do regime change, [30:11] maybe actually get an unconditional surrender. But now we're stuck. [30:15] Yeah. The question, though, is, does he feel stuck? Donald Trump will tell you he's never stuck [30:21] because he can always pivot. And in that sense, to the American political mind, and by that I don't [30:28] mean everybody who's watching cable news, I mean voters, if gas prices are down and it doesn't feel [30:34] like we're at war, can't he declare victory? Fair enough. And I think, yes, I think he can. [30:41] I think he will. And I think his point, and you have to give him credit for the fact that oil prices [30:46] are coming down, as he said, they would probably much faster than most economists thought. [30:50] So in his view, you know, in the long run, things are better. You know, he can go out there and [30:55] campaign on prices coming down and the economy getting better. And I think that's exactly right, [31:01] you know, he always spends things as a win. And, you know, he's got some, you know, he'll take it. [31:07] I don't think he really cares that much about the Rubio Vance blood battle. I think he kind of enjoys it. [31:15] Oh, 100%. And like you said, he's willing to play them off against one another. And [31:20] he'll be happy with either outcome. And whoever comes out on top would be great. It's just, [31:24] you know, in the end of the day, if either one of them triumphs, it's a win for Donald Trump. [31:29] Mark McKinnon, thank you very much. Good to see you, my friend, as always. We first [31:33] wrote about this in War Notes, your chance for an inside look at the show every day. [31:37] And it is free at warnotes.com. Mark McKinnon subscribes. You should too. Your friends [31:43] will be impressed with the knowledge you have and wonder where you got it. You will tell them, [31:47] warnotes.com. And I will see you on social media. You're going to hear a lot about student loans this [31:53] coming week, but everything you hear about who to blame is going to be wrong. Starting this week, [32:07] the rules for student loans change. And you're about to see a ton of stories claiming Donald [32:11] Trump is bankrupting hardworking Americans. Here's the reality. Millions of people were sold [32:17] the same false dream. Borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars for a degree [32:22] that doesn't give you the pay to pay the loan back. More than 42 million Americans have federal [32:29] student loans, but nobody wants to blame the universities. And that's a huge part of the [32:33] problem because students are encouraged to sign the paperwork long before they understand what [32:38] those payments will actually look like after graduation. The real problem here is that [32:43] universities keep raising tuition while the value of their degrees keeps falling. And they can do it [32:48] because they don't bear the risk if the loans aren't repaid. Ryan Cummings from Stanford's [32:53] Institute for Economic Policymaking, Princeton University's Lauren Wright, political science and [32:58] professor there. Good to see you both. Lauren, start with you. If tomorrow there was a law passed [33:04] that universities had to underwrite their own student loans with their endowments rather than [33:09] the federal government, what would happen? I think that would be very bad for students [33:15] and for universities. I mean, still in this country, you do basically want a situation where people [33:21] take responsibility for their own careers and taking risks in their own careers. And a handful of people [33:27] might actually be very successful at those things. I mean, if we applied this rubric to small business [33:34] loans, for instance, no one would ever start a small business again. And so it sounds mean. [33:40] So you're saying if the government doesn't underwrite higher education, it's not going to happen. [33:43] The responsibility. Right. But they have the responsibility now. It's just who is just whether [33:50] the risk is worth it. Right, Ryan. And there's a sense that the universities get to charge more and [33:55] more for these degrees, they take none of that risk. It's we, the taxpayers, who do. [34:01] Yeah, but actually that's who you want taking the risk. The government has a large balance sheets. [34:05] And just like my co-panelists just mentioned, sometimes that's not going to work out or even [34:10] most of the time it's even if most of the time it doesn't work out. But if a few people do go on [34:14] to utilize that education and start great companies or alternatively devote their career to public [34:20] service and help improve government, that's really worth it as well. And again, college degrees are [34:25] still pretty valuable. There is a roughly a 60 to 80 percent premium of a college degree relative to [34:31] a high school degree. Now, that premium has kind of been flat. It has been increasing for most of the [34:36] past 40 years, and now it's flat. But we're still looking at a very large premium. [34:40] Ryan, come on. There's a difference, though, between a degree in chemistry and biology and a degree in [34:46] comparative literature or a master's in basket weaving history. [34:50] Yeah, but most students are responding to, quote unquote, the market. So you see plenty [34:54] of economic research in which students choose to go into higher paying professions, for example, [35:00] if they have debt. One of the most, the most popular major here, for example, at Stanford and [35:04] many other places as well is computer science. So people are trying to figure out how to be the [35:08] tip of the spear in the AI boom. I mean, students are responding. There are, of course, some of these [35:12] cases. You mentioned this at the top with people with $250,000 debt or something like this. But [35:17] this is actually often for-profit universities like the University of Phoenix or something like this [35:23] that are predatory in doing these exact kind of things. [35:25] I see your point. I can see that my idea of the colleges having to underwrite their own products, [35:29] sort of like how car companies have to underwrite buying a car and taking the risk [35:33] doesn't fly with either of you who work at these universities. I understand that. That's fine. [35:37] Lauren, the question though, from a political standpoint, 2020 through 2023, it was all about [35:46] canceling student debt, right? And Joe Biden even said, I'm going to go around the Supreme Court and [35:49] defy the Supreme Court. And now Democrats aren't saying boo about canceling student debt. What changed? [35:55] Well, nothing changed except the majority of Americans who are not college educated. I think [36:01] we forget that. By the way, you know, a big chunk of Americans can't even read at sixth grade level. [36:06] It's absolutely terrifying. So we're talking about the elite of the elite of the elite to begin with. [36:11] Americans got really pissed off at the message that these Ivy League students can't pay their [36:16] debt off and then we're going to shoulder it as Americans. So I totally understand the politics of [36:22] it, but the mechanics of it are a little bit more difficult. Well, they're not that difficult. [36:28] They're just uncomfortable. And Ryan, to that point, as somebody from the Biden administration [36:33] who was all in it, was this a huge mistake to talk about canceling student debt and [36:38] not making people repay the loans they took out? I mean, it's unclear. I mean, [36:43] I would also argue the main thing that changed is Trump is not the president and he, you know, [36:47] Joe Biden tried to use his executive authority. You know, you're Democrats talking about canceling [36:51] student debt anymore. That's not like a, that's not a thing anymore. Well, because they don't have the [36:55] power to do it. I mean, they don't have any power in government. So it'd be kind of a moot point. Now, [36:59] is it a mistake? I mean, I honestly don't know. They're not campaigning on it. I mean, that's true. [37:02] They've stopped campaigning on it. I get Leland's point. Yeah. Yeah. And I don't know if it's [37:07] Well, finally, five minutes into the segment, one of you get my point. Thank you. [37:10] All right, Ryan, Lauren. I'm hoping for a more friendly audience. I was hoping for at least one of [37:21] you in this conversation. We're very friendly. What are you talking about? You know, there we go. I hear it. [37:26] I hear it. Ryan, Lauren, may actually know the professors stick around for this tease, [37:31] because you may, you may actually get this quiz. Before we go, take a look at this map on your [37:37] screen. No, we have not labeled it. Can you find Bosnia? Why one reporter is in very hot water over [37:45] this. Team USA will play Bosnia next Wednesday. And one thing about Bosnia, I could not point out [38:07] where it is on a map. I don't know the first thing about Bosnia and I don't want to know. [38:11] Horrific, right? One Los Angeles reporter is in trouble with the Bosnians after saying she can't [38:19] find the country on a map. In fact, she had to publicly apologize for that. So it got us thinking, [38:24] I consider myself a pretty educated person and I couldn't find Bosnia on a map. In fact, [38:29] the staff put me to the test. I asked you before we went to break to find Bosnia on this map. Could [38:36] you find it? I couldn't. We have labeled it correctly for you. Have we? Yes. And think to [38:43] yourself, are we sure that is correctly labeled? Because that's the kind of thing I would do to [38:47] Katie Pavlich and then say, no, Katie, it's wrong. That's no, but I didn't think of that. That is the [38:51] correct, that is the correct. Well, I have actually driven through Bosnia. I thought Woke was dead and [38:55] she had to, she had to apologize. No wonder people hate the media. Yeah, that's true. But I mean, [38:59] you shouldn't say that about soccer fans, I guess football fans, but I would say I'm going for the [39:04] Croatian team rather than the Bosnian team, which of course is a neighbor to the Bosnian. So I have [39:09] driven through Bosnia. I have a passport stamped from there. So I do know where it is on the map. [39:14] You speak with way more authority than I do on this and many things. Have a great show. [39:18] That's not true. See you tomorrow, Leland. Thanks.