Who is winning the Iran war?; pot policy shift — On Balance Full Show 4/23

[0:00] Welcome to the program. Many right now are wondering who is winning the war with Iran right [0:06] now. If you don't know who's winning, it's not really your fault. In a moment, Vice Admiral John [0:12] Fozzie Miller, Dr. Khan Tashbash, explains whether or not the Iranians believe Trump has the will to [0:18] fight. Also ahead, Sage Steele's postgame on the California gubernatorial debate that we were at [0:24] and why the biggest loser is California. But first, our Why It Matters segment tonight. America right [0:32] now is not winning the war with Iran. That statement sounds controversial, but let's think [0:38] about it. At the start of the war, it was very clear we were kicking butt and taking names, mostly [0:46] the names of Iran's high command. We were killing them in droves, wiping out their air defense systems, [0:51] blowing up their rocket launchers and storage facilities. Central Command posted countless [0:56] videos of the U.S. easily taking out Iranian targets. The violence of action of the U.S. [1:03] military was nothing like the world had ever seen. We didn't have to ask who was winning. [1:09] For his part, President Trump has repeatedly claimed the U.S. has already won, and yet now, [1:15] the Iranian dysfunction and infighting, according to the president, is the real sign of victory. [1:21] You know, the leaders are all gone. Part of the problem is that, uh, that's why I can't really [1:27] answer your question. They have all new leadership, and they're fighting like cats and dogs for who's [1:32] going to control. They want to make a deal. We have been speaking to them, but they don't even know [1:38] who's leading the country. They're in turmoil. [1:40] And yes, there's lots of Iran in turmoil, but the facts on the ground tell a different story in terms [1:48] of what that turmoil is going to lead to. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the most hardline parts of [1:54] Iran, is consolidating power. Some reports claim the Iranian speaker of the parliament that was [1:59] supposed to be the moderate in this whole thing was just forced to resign from the negotiating team. [2:04] Trump's press conference today shows a president trying, that's why you have press conferences, [2:10] to regain the narrative. I want to make the best deal. I could make a deal right now. Do you know that [2:16] if I left right now, we had a tremendous success. It would take them 20 years to rebuild, [2:21] but I don't want to do that. I want to have it everlasting. I want to have it where they never [2:26] get, they never have a chance to get, I mean, the way you asked that question, yeah, I did say it. [2:30] I thought it would take, uh, four to six weeks, and I was right, because at the end of six weeks, [2:37] at the end of four weeks, the military was decimated. And that is true. [2:41] The Iranian military, in terms of being able to project force, is decimated. Trump's messaging, [2:47] though, is not working for Americans, and it's not doing much with the Iranian regime either. [2:52] He sways from saying there is no timeline to saying he could make a deal right now. [2:56] Then a few hours later, Iran will say they have no idea what he's talking about. [3:02] And the threats the president is delivering don't seem to be getting through. [3:06] President Trump says he ordered the military to shoot to kill any Iranian boats laying mines in the [3:11] Strait of Hormuz. There are several problems with this. First, the Iranian leadership doesn't care [3:17] if the mine laying boats gets blown up. And secondly, why should the Iranian regime right now [3:24] believe him? President Trump has made threats over the past three weeks, many threats, [3:29] and none of them have been backed up. No amount of Oval Office press conferences fighting with the [3:34] press is going to fix that. How long are you willing to wait [3:39] until you get a unified response? Don't rush me, Jeff. [3:42] So we were in Vietnam, like, for 18 years. We were in Iraq for many, many years. [3:46] And we were in the Korean War for seven years. I've been doing this for six weeks. [3:52] They're getting absolutely decimated. Now, with all of that being said, we'll see what happens. [3:58] We have a lot of, we have no pressure. It's only guys like you with a question like that. [4:03] But what's your time? We've been doing it for five and a half weeks. [4:06] The only pressure on President Trump is political pressure. It's not military pressure [4:12] because of the midterms. President Trump faces many problems. The new Iranian leadership [4:18] does not, the midterms being one of them, the political pressure being another. [4:23] But the world isn't fair. Unlike situations in the past where Trump could take things to [4:28] the brink and then back off, the Iranians appear to have no desire for an off-ramp, just to sort [4:35] of move on. The Iranians are fundamentally different people than Trump has ever dealt with. [4:40] They're not Venezuela or NATO or even the governor of Minnesota. Self-preservation isn't their [4:46] instinct. They are religious zealots. In Shia Islam, a fight with the infidels is to be embraced. [4:52] For some, it is a religious sign that good things are to come. If Trump wants out of this war, the [4:59] Iranians will make him pay a high price. They will make him pay an even higher price to win it. [5:05] Bring in Vice Admiral John Fozzie Miller and Dr. Kian Tashbash. Dr. Tashbash, I want to start with you. [5:12] You were once a guest, I should say, of the Iranian regime in Evin Prison. So I think you have a unique [5:17] perspective on who these folks are and how they look at the world. You've studied how they are reacting [5:24] and acting right now to President Trump. What does that say? What does their action say about what [5:31] they believe Trump is capable of or not capable of? Well, good evening, Leland, and to the general, [5:39] and thank you for having me on. Look, I would say two things, one general and one specific about the [5:44] current case. In general, I think you were right in your intro. Look, the American creed is life, [5:51] liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. The radical Islamist creed is submission, martyrdom, and forcing [5:59] other people to live by your God's law. And so when you say that he's dealing with people he hasn't [6:05] really dealt with before, I think that's true. Now, the specific case currently is that, look, [6:11] the Iranians see any kind of bout, any kind of contest in like a boxing context with 12 rounds. [6:20] They don't, they see themselves somewhere in the fourth or fifth round or maybe the sixth round. [6:25] They are struggling now. They're still standing up. They're still managing to land some blows, [6:32] but they can see where this is going into the 12th round. And I think that despite all the bravado and [6:39] all the bluster coming out of the Iranian leadership, they can see that if President Trump hangs on for [6:46] maybe a month, maybe two, until they run out of economic resources, they're going to be on the ropes. [6:55] All right. And that economic pressure campaign is the blockade at the Strait of Hormuz. [7:01] Admiral, that brings us to you. You planned, as head of the Fifth Fleet, what these blockades look [7:09] like. What are the options short of restarting the bombing campaign for the president to up [7:15] the pressure that Kian was talking about? [7:20] Well, there aren't a lot of options that are really short of the bombing campaign. So [7:24] we're putting economic pressure on them, as you discussed. But that's going to take a little bit [7:29] of time to take hold. So I think they can see what's coming in the future. [7:34] They can see by us boarding these boats by turning boats back. [7:38] Right. That they're not going to be able to sell oil. They're going to run out of money. [7:42] They are just trying to hang on. So we can keep that pressure on. [7:46] They are getting other pressures, and that's mostly from the Chinese, who need not just the Iranian oil, [7:52] but they need the oil from the rest of the Gulf as well. And so I think that's going to be more [7:56] helpful to us in the future. So that is, there's two parts of the [7:59] closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We'll put a map up, right? It is that the Iranians are firing on [8:05] ships, so no ships will exit. And then the United States is stopping Iranian ships once they've gotten [8:10] outside. So both sides have this, you could call it a rioter's veto or a control lock or whatever [8:16] you want to call it. But I'm going to stay with you for a second here. If the U.S. Navy wants to reopen [8:23] the Strait by force, that is to deny the Iranians this ability to keep ships from sailing through the [8:30] Strait by firing on them, what does that look like? Well, it looks like a bombing campaign to begin [8:35] with. And so the land that's immediately around the Strait of Hormuz, where those small boats come [8:42] from, all of those small boats we can find need to go away. We have air superiority. We have a great deal [8:47] of air power. The Bush is just coming into the theater. And so as those boats come out of the [8:54] harbors that they're in and into the Strait, they need to be interdicted. And that's what that looks [8:59] like. I want to play for Dr. Tash-Bash, because a big part of this is what's happening there [9:04] inside of Iran right now. The Iranian regime faces the forces of the United States, [9:10] obviously, and the Arab coalition we have built. They also face forces inside. Bill O'Reilly [9:16] and I last night discussed whether or not the Iranians are still hanging and executing [9:22] protesters and resistance leaders inside Iran, including eight women who the president of the [9:28] United States celebrated had been spared. Take a listen. There was a good development today for [9:33] the president. He got eight women off the gallows. So the... How do we know that's true? We don't think [9:42] the Iranians would lie about it. They lied about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. [9:47] Leland, I can't analyze the news... You don't think they lie about sparing [9:50] eight people? I can't analyze the news saying somebody might lie about it. This is what came [9:55] out of the White House and what came out of the wire services. So I've got to go with that [10:01] until things are proved to be different. Yeah, put aside these eight in terms of what's happened [10:10] to them. Obviously, we hope they're still alive. Is there anything showing that the Iranian regime [10:15] is moderating in its willingness to kill its own people? Absolutely not. You know, there are pros and [10:23] cons to the way President Trump raised the human rights issues inside of Iran. The strength of it [10:28] was that he was concrete, pointing to actual people and names and faces that we could see and that, [10:35] you know, there could have been movement on one or two people there. But I think the weakness of that [10:42] is that the question of human rights and the role of the Iranian people in their quest for freedom has [10:48] kind of dropped out of some of the... A lot of the language of the administration in the last few weeks. [10:53] It was there at the beginning, but it hasn't been there very strongly. But of course, [10:57] it's very clear that they have other military goals to achieve before they can actually, [11:04] you know, do anything for the Iranian people. But no, Leland, this regime is, you know, [11:11] and I want to just correct something. As someone, you know, there's a lot of talk about whether this [11:15] regime has become more hardline as a result of the U.S. military operation. Look, in January, [11:21] when the old leadership was there, they gunned down 10,000 people unarmed in the street for [11:28] protesting peacefully. So I don't think that's, you know, that's not a great, you know, contrast. [11:34] That's not a great starting point. Your point is well made. This is Mark Thiessen talking about in [11:42] terms of how to perhaps get members of the Iranian government who would be willing to talk to us. [11:49] Admiral, the one thing about war is it's kind of like football. Momentum goes an awful long way. [11:55] The fact that we have stopped and lost the momentum and the Iranians are now able to spend [12:00] these couple of weeks sort of re-evaluating, resupplying, on and on, how hard does it make [12:09] it to go back to that targeted killing campaign? I don't really think the momentum has been lost. [12:14] It looks that way. I understand what you're saying. There's an appearance of that. [12:18] But during this ceasefire, we're building up forces. We've brought another carrier strike [12:23] group in. We're bringing another Marine expeditionary unit in. So we've got more [12:29] combat power now than we have when the ceasefire started. So once the president says it's time to [12:34] go back to work, they're ready to go back to work. Well, and to be fair, we saw that once before, [12:40] right? Because we saw in January the threats from President Trump, then this massive buildup before [12:45] the strikes began. A lot of people were saying, what's going on? And we were saying, [12:49] we're waiting for forces now. There's another moment of a pause while more forces come in. [12:54] Admiral, Dr. Keon Toshbosch, thank you both very much. Good to have both of you here. Thank you. [12:59] California's governor's debate last night showed us one thing and one thing alone. The world's fourth [13:05] largest economy is about to be run by a nitwit. I have a program for ICE that involves [13:16] prosecuting them for racial profiling, prosecuting them for violence against Californians. What would [13:23] you tell your own kids if they ever faced a boss like that? You have 60 seconds. [13:28] I apologized that day to that staffer four years ago, and I took responsibility then, [13:34] and I have taken responsibility since. Mr. Becerra, we haven't seen you issue a letter grade [13:40] on Governor Newsom's overall performance. What grade does he get on homelessness, [13:45] and what, if anything, would you do differently? On effort, I would give him an A. Here's what I [13:49] would do that's different, though. I would focus on accountability. In a state of 40 million people [13:56] and big problems, we highlighted a number of them during our trip to California. Last night's [14:01] gubernatorial debate made one thing clear. The bench, the options for California governor [14:06] leaves little hope. The winners of the night were the moderators who asked tough, fair, [14:11] substantive questions and pointed out when candidates refused to answer. It was refreshing [14:16] to watch a debate like that. The losers were the people of California who have to pick from these [14:21] six candidates. The biggest state in America and fourth largest economy in the world is going to be run [14:28] by one of them. With us now, Sage Steele, host of the Sage Steele podcast on Bill Maher's podcast and [14:33] on set with us. So good to see you. In person. There we go. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. [14:38] Makes you happy you don't live in California, right? I literally left California about six hours ago. [14:43] And yes, to answer your question. However, it does make me so sad because to me it is the most [14:48] beautiful state in the union by far, the most diverse, etc. But they have ruined it. And I had not [14:53] just one. Several Californians come up to me at the restaurant last night and say, [14:57] just so you know, we're not all crazy. We're not all like them. We want to save our state. [15:02] You know, I think there is a lot of people who feel like that. I left California about [15:05] 20 hours ago. Forgive my jet lag to all who are watching. The bags in my eyes are real. [15:13] That's my fault, not Jessica, our makeup artist. The larger question, though, is why are we not seeing [15:20] anybody better show up and be willing to run? Because they're smart. And they know that it is [15:28] a disaster. And you're almost setting yourself up to fail in the state of California, is my feeling. [15:34] At the end of the day, somebody has to run it, though. And we know that the current leader has [15:38] done nothing but set the state further back. What I'm hoping and praying for, this is somebody that [15:43] has no interest in being in California, living in California, but just because there's so much to [15:49] offer. Yeah, you should want it to succeed. Yes. I hope and pray that the people of California [15:55] can stop and look at the facts, the policies, look at the numbers, look around themselves in the [16:02] neighborhood and realize that the last 15 years, when you've been led by Democrats, what has happened? [16:08] Every single wrong number has gone up, whether it's crime, whether it's homeless, you name it. [16:13] And yet, the Democratic machine seems to still have a real grab there. [16:19] Yes. [16:19] Matt Mahan is the mayor of San Jose. He's probably the most Newsom's skeptical of the Democrats. [16:25] We talked to him after the debate. [16:28] Democrats have run California for 14 years with supermajorities. [16:32] You keep talking about affordability, yet California is the least affordable state [16:36] in the country. What specifically has to change? [16:38] Well, first of all, I'm the only candidate in this race who has said that on day one, [16:43] I will suspend the gas tax and reform it so it doesn't disproportionately force working families [16:49] to pay to maintain our roads. But the answer isn't to elect Donald Trump's hand-picked candidate [16:55] or a Fox News commentator. [16:58] OK, so I hit on Steve Hilton. Fine. But beside the point, [17:00] the best he had was repeal the gas tax? [17:04] Exactly. If that's the number one thing that he's going to do the day he gets into office, [17:07] every single person that I have talked to in California, and I just did this informal poll [17:11] leading up to my conversation with Steve Hilton, who was on my show, The Sage Deal Show, [17:15] that's coming out next week. And I just wanted to know from my friends, [17:18] what upsets you the most? And these are people from very different demographics [17:22] and backgrounds and socioeconomic statuses, and they all said the same thing. [17:26] It is the crime. These beautiful communities are no longer safe. [17:30] And these are $2, $3 million homes, you know, and then up from there where people are camped out. [17:35] Well, that's part of the problem is $2 or $3 million homes is a starter home. [17:39] It's a starter home in California. [17:39] I think it's great that you have Steve Hilton on next week. [17:43] We talked to him a little bit after the debate as well. Take a listen. [17:49] It's a tough line to walk for you, right, of being endorsed by somebody who's so important [17:53] to so many Republicans, but is toxic to so many independents that you need. [17:57] Yeah, but remember that the president got more votes in California than any other state [18:01] that actually, given the turnout levels in a general election, [18:05] sorry, in a presidential election in a midterm year, actually, if you look at the numbers, [18:10] if everybody who voted for President Trump in 2024 votes for me in 2026, [18:15] I'll be elected with hundreds of thousands of votes to spare. [18:18] Spoken like a former campaign operative. [18:21] True. [18:21] And if worms had machine guns, birds would be very afraid of them, if it ends. [18:26] But this would be the question, though, from your friends in California. [18:30] Why aren't they willing to support? [18:33] Why aren't Democrats and independents willing to support anybody with an R next to their name? [18:37] It's a habit. It's laziness, and it is a habit. [18:40] And I think it's also in conversation where people, around the country, [18:43] people had to kind of come out of the closet, pardon me for using that phrase, [18:46] to say, yes, I'm voting for Donald Trump, or you do it with your nose plugged. [18:49] Here's my advice. Don't tell anybody who you're voting for. [18:54] Go to the poll, vote once, not six times, guys. [18:57] Do it the right way, and just take care of what you believe is the best... [19:01] Vote the way that you believe is the best way to help your state and your family. [19:05] And it does begin and end with crime, because even if the cost of living comes down, [19:09] if you're stepping over drug addicts and your kids can't safely go to school, [19:13] then none of that matters. [19:13] What else matters? No, that's a great... [19:15] It's actually simple, but I think it's a habit. [19:17] These people have only known one way to do it for so long. [19:20] You've got to get uncomfortable a lot. [19:22] Most of the country did in 2024. Look what happened. [19:25] Yeah, you know, it's funny. [19:25] We had top concerns for California graders, cost of living 40%. [19:28] We have a graphic. [19:29] The cost of California compared to the U.S. average, it is stunning. [19:32] This is in addition to how much everything has gone up in the United States. [19:36] The person we talked to about crime was Chad Bianco. [19:38] He is the sheriff who's running, doesn't seem to have that great of a chance, [19:42] although up until recently was number two in the polls. Take a listen. [19:47] What Democrat or independent is going to vote for you? [19:50] The ones that want safety, the ones that want common sense in government, [19:54] the ones that want government actually working to make their lives better [19:57] instead of special interests better or bigger. [19:59] Government is out of control. The spending is out of control. [20:02] They're going to vote for me because they want cheaper gas, $2 gas. [20:06] They want cheaper houses, they want no state income tax, [20:10] and they want to be safe when they send their kids to school [20:13] or they go to the grocery store at night. [20:15] Okay, no state income tax isn't going to happen. [20:17] But the safety thing isn't resonating. [20:22] What do you mean? With voters? [20:24] Well, I'm wondering which polls they are using then [20:27] because that is what every single person says. [20:30] Steve Hilton talks about it a lot. [20:31] And wouldn't it be ironic if an immigrant from the U.K. [20:37] ends up being the best candidate, [20:39] the person that's voted into office in California? [20:41] All we know right now is that the bar is so low with Gavin Newsom. [20:46] But hey, please, have your wife keep talking, by the way. [20:49] It breaks my heart, but I do think all those Californians [20:51] who say my vote doesn't matter, I think it does. [20:54] And if you don't do it this time, to me, [20:57] it's not going to be a good result, a good future for California. [21:02] Well, if you don't vote, you can't complain. [21:05] Nobody's complaining in Indiana, though. [21:07] The Hoosiers quarterback, number one in the draft. [21:09] I know. I might have cried. [21:11] Really? [21:11] I might have cried. [21:12] Yeah, I've got a boss who's crying tears of joy as well. [21:14] It's good to see you, Scalding. [21:15] Good to see you, Leland. Thank you. [21:17] The fundamental unfairness in American politics [21:20] is getting so bad, call it the American economy, [21:23] that Republicans need to take notice. [21:25] The people who voted Trump in twice [21:27] may now be turning against him. [22:00] Welcome back. [22:00] In fact, President Trump wrote a wave of anger in 2024 [22:03] to get back in the White House. [22:06] That anger centered a lot around the economy. [22:08] Voters across America felt that after four years of Joe Biden, [22:12] the economy was rigged against them, [22:14] and they were not wrong. [22:17] But that same anger is back. [22:19] Maybe it never left, but it is rearing its head again, [22:22] and Democrats are starting to tap into it, [22:24] because for many Americans, nothing feels fixed. [22:27] Everything feels more expensive. [22:29] The sense of unfairness isn't fading. [22:32] It's shifting. [22:33] A lot to digest there, and Piker is a known anti-Semite. [22:37] He thinks Hamas and Israel are the same, [22:39] lots of other things that he has said in the past. [22:42] He's widely unknown to the majority of the population in America, [22:45] but he is tapping into something very real. [22:47] It's rooted in a very simple idea, [22:51] that the system is rigged. [22:53] Big corporations bend tax code, [22:55] hires armies of accountants, and come out ahead. [22:57] Billionaires and lobbyists have their own lawyers [22:59] to get their own tax carve-out, [23:02] so they pay less taxes as a percentage than the rest of us. [23:05] With us in a moment, [23:07] former Democratic strategist Evan Barker. [23:09] First, News Nation's Kelly Meyer live at the White House. [23:12] As the White House, Kelly, I think, [23:13] is still trying to figure out how to get back to the economy. [23:20] Yeah, they are trying to move in that direction, Leland. [23:23] The president returned to that issue today, even, [23:25] and he has said that Republicans will win the midterms [23:28] on this main issue, and that's prescription drug costs. [23:32] That was his event today here at the White House. [23:34] He brought drug company heads into the Oval Office [23:36] to share his latest deal with the company Regeneron [23:40] to lower the costs and offer hearing loss therapy for free. [23:44] That is now the 17th company to lower its prices [23:47] as part of the administration's most-favored nation's pricing. [23:50] Here's the president. [23:52] It's the biggest price reduction in drugs in history. [23:55] By itself, we should win the midterms. [24:00] And, Leland, in the span of one week, [24:02] we've seen the president go from tax policy [24:04] to build the wall to now drug costs, [24:06] and even White House chief of staff [24:07] telling cabinet officials to cut international travel [24:10] to focus on issues here at home. [24:13] But later this afternoon, [24:14] the president brought the focus back overseas [24:16] by bringing a meeting that was meant to stay [24:18] around the corner at the State Department [24:20] here to the White House [24:21] and getting involved in the cease-fire deal [24:24] between Lebanon and Israel, [24:25] personally getting involved in that. [24:27] The president also getting questions from reporters today [24:29] about not using Made in America materials [24:32] for his new White House colonnade construction. [24:35] The granite there, not from America, [24:37] but from Africa, he said. [24:39] Leland. [24:39] OK, a lot there at the White House. [24:42] Kelly Meyer, thank you. [24:43] Evan Barker is with us now. [24:46] Evan, this idea that the system is rigged [24:49] was one that we picked up in 2016. [24:52] And I remember going to Bernie Sanders rallies [24:55] and finding Bernie bros who, [24:57] if they weren't going to vote for Bernie, [24:58] they were going to vote for Trump. [24:59] Many did in 2016. [25:01] Many did in 2024. [25:03] Where are those people now? [25:04] I mean, a lot of those people are still with Trump. [25:11] They are. [25:13] But many of them, [25:14] especially people that lean more independent, [25:17] like myself at this point, [25:19] are feeling disillusioned [25:21] by Trump's first year in office, [25:24] in Trump 2.0. [25:26] And, you know, going to what you guys [25:28] just reported on at the White House, [25:29] for example, you know, [25:31] Trump is touting this prescription program, [25:34] TrumpRx, [25:35] which I actually, I think it's wonderful. [25:37] I think it's great that he's fighting [25:39] to get our country's most favored nation status. [25:42] The problem is that at the same time, [25:45] in the midst of an affordability crisis, [25:48] his administration has also cut Medicaid [25:51] by a trillion dollars [25:52] and allowed the ACA tax credits to expire. [25:56] Obviously, Obamacare is not perfect. [25:58] Obviously, we don't want to be subsidizing [26:00] health care forever, [26:02] you know, for higher income earners. [26:04] But at the same time, [26:05] the option of just leaving people [26:07] without coverage, [26:09] to me, sort of nullifies [26:11] what he's done [26:13] with this prescription benefit, [26:15] because they're not able [26:16] to even go to the doctor [26:18] to get a prescription, [26:20] to get these cheaper drugs. [26:22] And so this is sort of [26:23] the cognitive dissonance [26:25] that I see in this administration. [26:27] It's been frustrating for somebody, [26:30] you know, I was a lifelong Democrat [26:32] and, you know, [26:33] so are many people in my family. [26:35] They were actually union construction workers [26:37] from the middle of the country [26:38] who used to vote for Democrats [26:40] and in 2016 started voting for Donald Trump. [26:43] I just, you know, [26:45] just switched over this last election [26:46] and decided to give him a try. [26:48] And at this point, [26:49] I am feeling disillusioned. [26:51] It's a great point [26:53] in terms of people [26:55] who actually vote based on how they feel [26:57] rather than party ideology. [26:58] That's who the viewers of News Nation are. [27:02] Right versus wrong, [27:03] not left versus right. [27:04] But it comes down to, I think, [27:06] a fundamental idea of fairness, right? [27:08] Of restoring fairness. [27:09] Because nobody minds [27:10] when somebody does better [27:13] if you think that you can do better as well, [27:15] if you think it is fair. [27:16] When it comes to that, [27:18] how have Republicans done? [27:21] And if they've done well, [27:23] why is the populism on the left [27:26] now gaining so much more traction? [27:30] Well, I think Republicans, [27:31] I mean, I'm going to be fair. [27:32] Republicans have done some things well. [27:33] Like they, you know, [27:35] did these tax cuts [27:37] that did benefit working class people. [27:39] You know, no tax on tips, [27:40] no tax on overtime, [27:41] no tax on Social Security. [27:43] Trump did deliver on those promises. [27:45] But at the end of the day, [27:47] you know, people over half the country [27:50] only has about $1,000 [27:51] in their checking account [27:53] at any one point in time. [27:55] Right. [27:55] And so many Americans [27:57] aren't even paying taxes, [27:58] to be blunt. [28:00] And they're struggling [28:01] with things like rent. [28:02] They're struggling with health care costs. [28:04] And they're struggling [28:05] with grocery costs. [28:06] I think the worst thing [28:07] Republicans could do, [28:09] which is what the Democrats did [28:11] during the 2024 election, [28:13] which is where they completely [28:15] ignored the pain [28:16] of the American people [28:17] and they just gaslit them [28:19] and basically told them [28:20] that what they were feeling [28:21] wasn't real. [28:22] And I think that backfired tremendously. [28:24] And that's one of the reasons [28:25] that Kamala Harris lost the election. [28:27] So I think part of it is that, [28:28] you know, Trump has been very busy [28:30] in other parts of the world [28:33] with this Iran war. [28:34] You know, it is another example [28:35] and not as focused [28:36] on domestic issues. [28:38] Yeah, and not feeling the pain. [28:41] You point that out. [28:42] One person who's trying [28:42] to do that a little bit, [28:44] maybe because he's either looking [28:45] for a job or thinks [28:46] he can run for president again. [28:47] Good luck with that [28:48] is Ron DeSantis of Florida. [28:52] I saw gas was $4. [28:54] I've seen the groceries. [28:56] You know, I take my kids, [28:57] like, you know, [28:57] they go to like, [28:58] oh, they want to go [28:59] to a McDonald's drive-thru. [29:00] And I do three happy meals [29:02] and it's $40. [29:02] I would love to know [29:04] the last time [29:05] the governor's motorcade [29:06] went through the drive-thru [29:08] at McDonald's. [29:09] But larger point here, [29:12] where does the anger, [29:14] and I think the union workers [29:15] in the Midwest [29:17] that are your family members [29:18] speak to this issue, [29:20] of the rich getting richer [29:23] and everyone else [29:24] still struggling to get ahead. [29:26] That was not how [29:27] the 1950s, 60s, 70s, [29:30] certainly not how the 1980s [29:32] felt to many Americans, [29:33] also the 1990s. [29:36] Is or are Republicans [29:37] vulnerable on that flank? [29:39] And is that why [29:40] this sort of socialist message [29:41] is starting to break through? [29:43] I think that's part of it. [29:45] I think when people feel [29:46] desperate and dire, [29:48] they will turn to radical options. [29:50] And that's exactly [29:52] what we're seeing, you know, [29:53] in the Democratic Party right now. [29:55] I will say Democrats, [29:57] like the base of the Democratic Party, [29:59] they are fed up. [30:00] They feel like the establishment [30:01] has not represented anything [30:04] other than being [30:05] an anti-Trump party. [30:06] So there is a built-in alternative. [30:09] And for them, [30:09] that is the progressive movement. [30:11] I used to work [30:11] in progressive politics, [30:13] Leyland, for many years. [30:15] That's how I made my name [30:16] in Democratic politics, [30:18] was on the far left. [30:19] And I left that movement [30:21] because of how wild [30:23] they went on cultural issues. [30:25] I felt like it was just [30:27] so damaging [30:28] to the Democratic Party. [30:29] So while my family in Missouri [30:31] might be struggling right now [30:33] and they might be feeling [30:34] a lot of anger [30:34] and like the Trump administration [30:36] is not necessarily [30:38] relating to their pain [30:39] or hearing their pain, [30:41] they are definitely not going to resonate. [30:44] They're not going to resonate [30:46] with somebody telling them [30:47] that it's okay to steal. [30:49] There's no way. [30:50] Well, that is actually [30:52] a great point [30:53] in terms of American values [30:54] because that still resonates. [30:56] Evan, this is a fascinating conversation. [30:58] Thank you. [30:58] I actually wrote down [30:59] what you said. [31:00] When people are desperate, [31:01] they turn to people [31:02] who are radical. [31:02] A lot of people [31:03] didn't understand that [31:04] when Trump sounded radical [31:05] in 2016 with Build the Wall. [31:07] That's why people turned to him, [31:08] because of the desperation. [31:09] Evan, you'll be back. [31:10] Thank you very much. [31:11] We're better for it. [31:12] Thank you for it. [31:13] Yeah. [31:13] We first wrote about this [31:14] in War Notes. [31:15] Your chance for an inside look [31:16] at the show every day. [31:17] It is free at warnotes.com [31:19] to subscribe. [31:21] I'll see you on social media [31:22] at Leland Vittert. [31:24] Here's a hard truth [31:25] facing the White House right now. [31:26] The economy has not worked. [31:28] We just heard that conversation. [31:30] Hasn't won back young men. [31:32] So how about pot? [31:34] Current economy has not worked [31:57] to win over young men [31:58] for the White House. [31:59] Now Trump is turning [32:01] from the economy [32:01] to embracing medical marijuana. [32:04] The military is very happy [32:06] about it and a lot of people [32:07] suffering from big problems, [32:10] which seems to be the best answer. [32:12] They're very happy about it. [32:13] So the rescheduling is starting [32:15] and that's a big thing, [32:16] rescheduling. [32:17] They kept saying, [32:18] what about the rescheduling? [32:19] And so, great job. [32:21] I appreciate it. [32:22] President Trump has now changed [32:23] how the federal government [32:24] looks at state-licensed medical marijuana. [32:27] This is the first in a step [32:29] towards decriminalization. [32:32] Medical marijuana will now [32:33] be regulated like any other [32:34] Schedule III drug that things [32:36] like ketamine, Tylenol with codeine, [32:38] steroids, lots of things [32:40] that you have in a prescription bottle. [32:42] But this changes 60 years of drug policy [32:45] and it is a mind-blowing shift [32:47] for Republicans. [32:49] It's like they've sold out [32:51] on everything they used to believe in. [32:53] Small government, [32:55] no government control of the markets, [32:57] investing in corporations, [32:58] and now they're taking steps [33:00] towards decriminalizing pot [33:02] if only Nancy Reagan [33:04] could see us now. [33:05] Ronald Reagan, too. [33:07] Dan Turrentine, co-host of The Huddle [33:08] and former Democratic advisor, [33:10] Tiffany Smiley, [33:11] founder of the Endeavor PAC [33:13] and a Republican strategist. [33:14] Tiffany, has the Republican Party [33:16] fully morphed into not [33:18] Ronald Reagan's Republican Party? [33:21] I don't think so, [33:22] not on this issue. [33:22] I mean, look, [33:23] it's not like the DOJ [33:24] woke up and just decided, [33:26] let's reschedule marijuana. [33:28] This has been in the works [33:29] for months [33:30] and it's a really, [33:31] really good thing. [33:33] You know, [33:33] I have a bachelor's in science [33:35] and I remember [33:36] at Walter Reed [33:37] at the height of the Iraq [33:38] and Afghanistan war, [33:39] I watched opioids [33:41] being handed out [33:42] to veterans [33:43] with their legs blown off [33:44] with nerve pain [33:45] and I've watched [33:46] the damage of it. [33:48] And medicinal marijuana [33:49] and declassifying it [33:51] is a huge step forward [33:53] to getting people relief. [33:54] It actually has [33:55] amazing components [33:57] that provide relief [33:58] from nerve pain. [34:00] Not only that, [34:02] diseases, [34:03] inflammatory diseases. [34:04] So this is actually [34:05] a really good thing, Leland. [34:07] And I think, you know, [34:08] things can be really good [34:10] for our country [34:11] and it doesn't all [34:12] have to be political necessarily. [34:16] Well, all great points. [34:17] I especially liked you [34:18] trying to make the point [34:19] about Walter Reed [34:20] and medical marijuana [34:21] when there was the guy [34:22] in the beard [34:22] with the giant doobie [34:23] blowing smoke [34:24] in the camera's lens. [34:27] Dan, I think Tiffany [34:29] obviously makes great points, [34:31] but this used to be [34:32] a democratic issue. [34:33] I was in Colorado [34:34] in 2007 [34:36] when medical marijuana [34:37] was first becoming [34:38] this very edgy thing [34:39] and it was this democratic issue. [34:41] Have Republicans [34:42] effectively taken that away now [34:44] as President Trump [34:45] has embraced it? [34:47] Yes, because at the end [34:49] of the day, [34:49] we didn't have the courage [34:50] to do it [34:51] because it played [34:51] to the stereotype [34:52] of Democrats [34:53] as liberals [34:54] soft on crime [34:55] and soft on drugs. [34:56] Leland, you know [34:57] in a lot of cities, [34:57] San Francisco [34:58] where I am [34:59] and in New York City, [35:01] they stopped enforcing [35:02] a lot of kind of [35:03] minor drug use [35:04] and people got upset [35:05] and they've kind of [35:06] swung in the opposite directions. [35:08] So I get why Trump did it. [35:10] It appeals to young men. [35:12] It appeals to libertarians, [35:14] to groups [35:15] that he is struggling with. [35:16] I think the interesting thing, [35:17] Leland, [35:17] when they did the psychedelics [35:19] over the weekend, [35:20] you had people [35:20] on the religious right [35:22] and kind of law and order [35:23] suburban Republicans [35:25] who said, [35:25] what are you doing here? [35:27] So it may be a case [35:28] of where Trump appeals to one [35:29] but upsets another part [35:31] of his coalition. [35:32] Yeah, well, right now [35:33] the other part of the coalition [35:34] is probably the last thing [35:37] he has standing [35:38] in terms of support. [35:39] It's the Joe Rogan types [35:41] that he had lost. [35:43] Here's Rogan talking about it. [35:44] Hi, Bogan, [35:50] because it's so important [35:50] and experienced [35:51] an 80% to 90% reduction [35:53] in symptoms of depression [35:55] and anxiety within one month. [35:59] Can I have some, please? [36:00] With one dose of Ibogaine, [36:01] more than 80% of people [36:03] are free of that addiction. [36:04] With two doses, [36:06] it's more than 90%. [36:07] I sent him that information. [36:10] The text message came back, [36:12] sounds great. [36:13] Do you want FDA approval? [36:14] Let's do it. [36:16] Tiffany, [36:17] this is not just medical marijuana. [36:22] This is a change [36:23] in how the Republican Party [36:26] is looking at what was [36:28] sort of a platform issue [36:30] for them, was it not? [36:31] If Democrats were doing this, [36:33] Republicans would be [36:34] all up in arms. [36:36] Well, no. [36:37] I mean, actually, again, [36:38] back to my point [36:39] that sometimes good things [36:40] can be done for our country. [36:41] They don't have to be political. [36:42] Listening to Joe Rogan, [36:43] you know, he's more [36:43] of a libertarian. [36:45] And so he's taking [36:47] that stance on it. [36:49] This really should have [36:50] been done a long time ago [36:51] because we live [36:52] in a political culture [36:53] where pharmaceuticals [36:54] rule the day. [36:56] And look what pharmaceutical [36:57] companies have done [36:58] to the lives of Americans [37:00] across this country. [37:02] They have destroyed them [37:03] with addiction [37:03] and with death [37:04] and with chemical substances [37:07] that have just led [37:09] to their benefit, right? [37:11] And they've controlled it [37:11] within the government. [37:12] So I think this is [37:13] an amazing first step [37:15] to reaching out [37:17] to, you know, [37:19] different modalities [37:20] that are actually healing, [37:23] that actually help people [37:24] and make the American [37:25] people stronger. [37:26] That's kind of the lane [37:27] I see this going in. [37:29] And I think it's a good place [37:30] to be for Republicans. [37:31] This is a good stance [37:32] for them, [37:33] especially heading [37:34] into the midterms. [37:35] It's not a bad thing. [37:36] Yeah, I don't know [37:37] what modality means. [37:38] We'll have to get to that [37:39] when you come back [37:39] the next time. [37:40] But, Dan, [37:41] Tiffany makes a great point here. [37:42] Which is that the Maha movement [37:45] is still very much alive [37:46] and Democrats haven't figured out [37:47] what to do about it. [37:49] That's absolutely right. [37:50] I mean, you know, [37:51] we've been spending [37:52] most of our time [37:53] pointing out vaccine issues. [37:55] But at the end of the day, [37:56] things about, you know, [37:57] food, improving the food chain [38:00] and what's in kids' diets [38:02] and things like medical marijuana. [38:05] Look, I was chief of staff [38:06] to Jared Polis, [38:07] the governor of Colorado, [38:08] then a congressman. [38:09] I went out to the district. [38:11] The number of people [38:11] from out of state [38:12] who would come in [38:13] to seek marijuana, [38:14] I mean, it was Montana, [38:15] Texas, Kansas. [38:17] It was not hippies [38:18] from San Francisco. [38:19] Well, yeah, [38:19] it's also now everybody, [38:22] when I was in Colorado, [38:23] there were doctors [38:24] who would give you [38:25] a medical marijuana card [38:26] for an earache [38:26] and 30 bucks. [38:27] But, hey, [38:28] there will always be [38:29] that part of the world. [38:31] Tiffany Smiley, [38:32] Dan Turrentine, [38:32] thank you both. [38:33] Great having you. [38:34] One thing for tomorrow [38:35] when we come back. [39:09] All right, [39:10] this headline caught [39:11] our eye earlier today. [39:12] Rob Lockwood, [39:13] great American, [39:14] writing in the Washington Post. [39:15] It's 2026. [39:17] Why are we still speaking English? [39:20] America declared independence [39:21] from British rule in 1776, [39:23] so why are we still [39:24] speaking English in 2026? [39:27] I hear Katie chuckling [39:28] as the nation's [39:29] 250th birthday approaches, [39:31] President Donald Trump [39:32] and Congress [39:32] can leave a meaningful mark [39:33] on history [39:34] by making American [39:36] the official language [39:37] of the United States. [39:39] Yeah, how exactly [39:40] would it be pronounced? [39:41] American. [39:41] American. [39:42] Just like that. [39:43] With the apostrophe? [39:44] With the apostrophe. [39:45] And a bald eagle [39:46] at the end emoji, right? [39:48] That's how we speak these days. [39:49] Maybe the president [39:49] can ask the king [39:50] about this next week [39:51] when he comes to visit. [39:52] Yeah, well, yeah, [39:53] I don't think the king's [39:54] coming for July 4th. [39:56] Well, he's coming [39:56] for an April visit. [39:58] So for July 4th, [39:59] maybe not his party. [40:01] Great to see you, Leland. [40:02] Great job last night [40:03] and we'll see you tomorrow.