TOM LEE says " A LOT OF MONEY PIGGYBACKING ON THIS TRADE" (08/03) Stocks Market Analysis

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Blue cloud trading through the night. [00:00:06] Speaker 2: Welcome back to the channel, everyone. In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips from today's episode of the Halftime Report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking hands are saying. Hit that like button, subscribe if you haven't already, and let's roll the tape on the first clip. [00:00:33] Speaker 3: Tom Lee's here, head of research at Fundstrat, chief investment officer of Fundstrat Capital, as well as a CNBC contributor. It's August 3rd. I'm glad to have you here, and I'm glad to have you here at 6 a.m. just to get your comments. I thought in July last time you were on, you shook me because you said that we could have, before ending the year much higher, that we could have a, what was the drawdown you said? I could have gotten to a 6 handle on the S&P based on the numbers you were talking about. [00:01:04] Speaker 4: Yeah, something that will feel like a bear market, you know, 10% kind of drawdown. [00:01:08] Speaker 3: That's what you thought. It was not a good month for July, and you said that it was, even for what you were expecting, it was not as positive as you were thinking. But the averages didn't do that. There was a day where the Dow went down 1250. Who knows what was going, you know, that was an AI unwind for that hedge fund to explain it. It doesn't matter what caused it, it did get down, what, 7,200, nowhere near 6. [00:01:36] Speaker 4: No. [00:01:36] Speaker 3: Or maybe 73. How low did, I'm just off the top of my head, is that enough now? [00:01:43] Speaker 4: Well, you know, I think August is a month to recover what, how June and July have been sort of flat months. But earnings have, earnings estimates have gone up a lot. So the stock market's kind of a coiled spring. And then we had a huge deleveraging issue you're talking about because of the AI unwind and Korea's policymakers panicking. So I think the markets could actually rebound strongly this month. Like maybe we get to 7,800. [00:02:13] Speaker 3: This month, the 7,800? [00:02:15] Speaker 4: Yeah, for the S&P. [00:02:16] Speaker 3: Is that forecast for the 10% drawdown still intact? Yes. It is? Yeah, so. Can't you take that off the table? Just, will you do it for me? Say it doesn't have to? No, I'm kidding. So we get to 7,800, maybe a 10% drawdown, and then close the year above 8,000. [00:02:32] Speaker 4: Yes. Yeah, I think because as we start to look at 2027, there's a lot of the clouds that are heading this year kind of lift. You know, the SpaceX unlock will be behind us, and the market testing of the new Fed will be behind us. So I think, and then, of course, there's already been a leverage unwind. So I think 2027 could be one of the best years for the stock market. [00:02:52] Speaker 3: And you think part of the positive sentiment this month is going to be cooler inflation data. Why? Yes. Why? Oil's back up. [00:03:04] Speaker 4: Yeah, oil's up. And, you know, we still have the tariffs working through, so those are hitting the CPI numbers. But the real driver of inflation historically has been housing and wages. And housing has really disinflated. You know, we've had three months now of declining home prices. So you're taking out one of the biggest weights for inflation. And then I think wage inflation is really muted. I mean, we'll find out this Friday. [00:03:31] Speaker 1: Hey, Tom, I just want to ask you what you think of the Leopold Aschenbrenner situation and the idea that he was highly leveraged four times, had to unwind this stuff. How much of that played into what you were just talking about with South Korea and the panic that happened there? How much of that was because he was selling that portfolio at the same time? [00:03:51] Speaker 4: I think it was a big factor because, as you know, Korea is basically two companies, Samsung and Hynek, so it's memory and semis. He, of course, had a very large following. So not only was his leverage on his $45 billion, let's say it was leveraged to $150 billion, but there was a lot of money piggybacking on his trade. So I think in some ways, you know, the unwind, and even last week, was due to a lot of funds being aware that he might have been in trouble. [00:04:24] Speaker 5: Do you think it's even bigger? I mean, when you say all the copycats, is that another $150 billion or is that $500 billion copycats? [00:04:32] Speaker 4: I think everyone's smaller. I mean, I think this was a clearing event last week. [00:04:37] Speaker 3: And it takes out the worry about earnings being so good, but still not moving the stocks. That happened. So we can put that behind it. We don't need to necessarily worry about that because the earnings were great. And people said they're going to buy, they're going to sell the news probably. So no hike, no hike the next meeting either, in your view, because the inflation numbers, in 1.5 GDP, we're going to have Hassett on later. He's going to say that was due to all the actual, if you, the import numbers from all the infrastructure billed for the data centers caused it to come in at 1.5, even though other numbers were closer to what the administration thought. Yeah, like a G&P would look better. G&P would be like 4% if it wasn't for the import numbers. So you think the economy is not going to be so strong that Warsh thinks we need a hike. And you think, also, one more question, you like what Warsh is doing in terms of the guidance. [00:05:34] Speaker 4: Yes. I think Warsh is trying to navigate a very tricky period because he's, of course, new and the market's getting used to him. And the bond market's very impatient because inflation has been high for a while. But we now won't have another Fed meeting until September. So we'll have July and August CPI. But if July's CPI looks like June, then you're going to have several consecutive months of low inflation. And if August is even muted, then all of a sudden I think the bond market won't be pricing in hikes. So that would be our expectation, that because housing is so muted and wages are so muted, it's hard to argue what the Fed and Warsh doesn't want to fine-tune the economy. I think his messaging is correct. You know, he doesn't want to over-communicate and he doesn't want to fine-tune the economy. And I think I'd prefer to give him the runway to kind of wait. [00:06:28] Speaker 5: What do you make of the idea of less meetings? Do you like that? Yeah. I was in the news late last week was this idea of going from eight meetings to six. [00:06:37] Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm supportive of that. I think there's too much Fed speak all the time. You know, we have multiple Fed speakers and it influences policy and markets. In the same way, I'm kind of supportive of companies reducing the frequency of earnings as well. [00:06:54] Speaker 5: What do you think that should go down to? [00:06:55] Speaker 4: I think semi-annual, which is what was a European convention when I was covering stocks, I mean, worked well, because CFOs otherwise have to work on a 90-day cycle and that's really short-termism. [00:07:08] Speaker 3: So what's bi-annual? Is that the same as semi-annual or is that every other year? [00:07:12] Speaker 4: Wait, what? [00:07:13] Speaker 3: Never mind. I know, you know, so we'll call it semi-annual. So six meetings and a four-day work week, that's what I'm proposing. Does that work for you? For the Fed? No, for every Fed, just across the board. Bitcoin at $62,000, you say it's really outperformed because where would it be? If it went, I guess, with the NASDAQ, it would be much lower. Is that what you're comparing it to, to say that it's outperformed? [00:07:45] Speaker 4: That's right. Crypto and the NASDAQ should move in directionally the same. But in July, Ethereum was up 25, outperformed the NASDAQ by 2,500 basis points. Okay. That hasn't happened in more than a year. And the last time it happened, that was the start of a big crypto up move. So in a way, it's constructive that it was… [00:08:09] Speaker 5: You're saying that on a month-on-month basis, not… Because you could argue the NASDAQ has outperformed Bitcoin, obviously, over the past year. [00:08:16] Speaker 4: Oh, yes. I'm talking about monthly return, just like in the past month. [00:08:19] Speaker 3: In the notes that says, yeah, that July… [00:08:22] Speaker 4: Yeah, so it's an unusual break in pattern because normally, if the NASDAQ was down this month, you'd expect crypto prices to be down. [00:08:28] Speaker 3: Yeah. Katie Stockton said that last week, it was no longer… The correlation with the NASDAQ had broken down. [00:08:37] Speaker 1: Jim Cramer spoke with Arvind Krishna last week. And Arvind said that the way quantum computing is going, that in three or four years, he'd be a little concerned that quantum computers would be able to break the code for any of these assets, you know, Bitcoin, Ethereum, all the way down the line. Do you worry about that? [00:08:56] Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, that's Q-Day. You know, Google researchers think Q-Day could be 2028 to break all encryption. A lot of the crypto blockchains are developing quantum resistance. So it's probably not going to be a problem for Ethereum or Solana or Canton. But for Bitcoin, they haven't come to a consensus on how to prevent Q-Day. [00:09:22] Speaker 3: Will it be better than the vaccine resistance that we got during COVID? We had a lot of conversations. I don't know if you saw it. God, it was Fauci week last week. Maybe we should do that every year or so, have Fauci week. But so hopefully it's better than… Do you remember when they told us that the vaccine immunity would be better than natural? Yes. I remember I just looked at them. I said, you're kidding, right? That you're just a little spike protein is going to be better than a full immunity from… But anyway, so hopefully this quantum resistance is better than that resistance. [00:10:01] Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, when you take AI plus quantum, I mean, I think that the entire financial system really needs to beef up security. So I think it's not just crypto… [00:10:11] Speaker 1: It's not just the financial system, I think. I mean, I think… [00:10:13] Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, what about banks? I mean, it is… [00:10:16] Speaker 1: But beyond that even, I mean, we're going to talk later today about some of the water plants that have been attacked at this point. But where you have AI, that was the moment with hugging face, right? That proved we're in a different world where these hacks take minutes instead of days or weeks or months. [00:10:34] Speaker 4: Yeah, where it's going to be hard to stay ahead of security vulnerabilities. [00:10:39] Speaker 3: Yeah, one more thing to worry about. Of course, if we're all, you know, if they decide they don't need humans anymore, this is going to be secondary. Because if there's no humans, you don't need money, right? Anyway, Tom Lee, thank you. Starting off August 4th. Starting off the show today for us. [00:10:55] Speaker 4: Yeah, great to see everybody. Good to see you. [00:10:59] Speaker 6: All right, Sarah, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, rallying stocks as August trading gets underway. We are, of course, trading the markets. We'll hit some of Joe Terranova's ETF rebalancing moves as well. Joining me for the hour, along with Joe, is Jim Labenthal, Surat Sethi, Steve Weiss. Take you to the markets. I said we are up to start trading in August. And there is your picture. NASDAQ is leading the way today up near 2%. So it's a nice move higher as oil and yields are lower. We got through tech earnings. Okay. It's clear that Microsoft and Amazon come out the biggest winners. It would at least seem that way. Their cloud growth was amazing. Meta and Apple were, I guess, the disappointments. If you want to take the stock movement as whatever judgment you want to make. And I mentioned at the top that you've had some rebalancing moves. And that's where we begin because it plays into the story. Interestingly so, and debatable as such, you sold Meta and Microsoft. Okay. So people out there are going to say, well, maybe I see Meta. And before the earnings report, I guess I could see Microsoft. But why now? [00:12:05] Speaker 7: Take me through both. I mean, it's momentum. And I think I said to you before earnings last week, I said, Scott, Meta and Microsoft, these are not momentum names. Your reply was, you think? And you were right. They are not. You can't define them as momentum holdings. But what clearly we witnessed in the case of Microsoft was something that is fundamental strength. And a lot of times when you're looking at momentum, rather, there is a disregard for good fundamentals. And that's, in fact, what happened. So if you were to ask me today if I had the ability to look at the ETF holdings and say, would I like to put Microsoft in it? The answer is obviously, of course, yes. The best cloud growth in the last four years is the ability to monetize the hyperscaler spending. But you're relying on a strategy, a factor that has worked relatively well so far in 2026. And that factor is making a pivot. It's making an internal pivot in the market. It's making a pivot away from some of the MAG7, which we're underperforming. It's making a pivot away from some of the software names into other areas of the market. [00:13:12] Speaker 6: Now, OK, so I understand the rules of the ETF. Yep. They are what they are. They are what they are. And there's no way around it. However, when you see a name that has lost its momentum, but then you feel as though it's potentially on the cusp of restarting it. Yes. You're still beholden to whatever rules you have for this ETF to get rid of a Microsoft? [00:13:39] Speaker 7: It's a quarterly rebalance. So the answer to your question is yes. You wait until the next quarter. Now, one of the things that you can do is you could look at the positive catalyst from earnings and say to yourself, OK, let's pull back the rebalance calendar, and I will tell you that's something that I am currently looking at. Maybe instead of rebalancing on the last business day of July where you're teetering on having still Apple earnings and Microsoft earnings, maybe you push that into the third week of August so you collect all of the S&P earnings data. That's something you could do. But to succinctly answer your question, unfortunately, that's what rules-based strategies are. And sometimes they're going to work in your favor, and sometimes the way it is today doesn't work in your favor. Are you regretful of having to do it now? Of course. Personally, when I look at Microsoft today, I didn't like seeing that the strategy was selling Microsoft the other day. I didn't like that at all. But I'm beholden to the strategy and the rules that were written nearly five or six years ago. And if I don't like the rules, there's a process in which you rewrite the rules, you submit them to the SEC, you notify shareholders, and you get approval. [00:14:48] Speaker 6: I got it. I got it. I just look at something like this, and I'm like, man, it's got to be... But isn't that the complexity of the market? You know, you're living... Well, that's the complexity of an ETF business that has the kind of rules that you have set around your own thing. [00:15:02] Speaker 7: But you could make, look, you could make an argument that if you are purely fundamental and in a market structure that's changed and now pays a little bit more of a premium towards the quantitative approach, you could make the argument that that, leaning in that direction, doesn't work. So there's no absolute answer in terms of what the right strategy is to implement the market. That's why we sit here every day. There's complexity to it. [00:15:28] Speaker 6: You have come out of... Well, first of all, Wolf says Microsoft's going to 500. [00:15:32] Speaker 7: Yeah, let me just make one quick point, if I could, just in terms of Microsoft. I am not alone in looking at Microsoft as not being in a momentum name. If you look at other momentum ETFs, take your pick, MTM, S-P-M-O, momentum is not found in Microsoft. It's not a holding there. So over the last 12 months, Microsoft is down 9% against an S&P that's up 19%. That's a pure fact. You can't define it as momentum. [00:16:00] Speaker 6: There is no disputing and debating the fact that the momentum in this name was gone. Gone. It was done dead and buried. [00:16:06] Speaker 7: And by the way, still gone today, even with a 25% rally. Still gone. [00:16:12] Speaker 6: Because the period of uptick isn't long enough to declare that it's back. Correct. [00:16:17] Speaker 7: You need to roll through the course of time. [00:16:18] Speaker 8: The analogy here to me is where Apple was two months ago, three months ago. And I want to point out that if you go back a year ago, we were talking about Apple in a very different tone than we were two months ago. We were talking about the worldwide developer conferences in which there were basically duds coming out in terms of Apple intelligence and its AI embrace. And yet, since that time a year ago, over the last two or three months, it's had one heck of a bid. I think that's a very similar analog to a fundamental discretionary manager to what's gone on with Microsoft over the last 12 months. It was looked at as a dud for many, many times. There are many reasons for it. Co-pilot wasn't enough. They didn't have their own model. Azure wasn't growing enough. But now it's broken out. And I think where we are with Microsoft now, not in a rules-based strategy, but in a fundamental discretionary strategy, is where people like me want to own it. [00:17:09] Speaker 6: So Apple's broken out. Why in the world would you sell half of your position? Because it's done. Because it's done. No sign. It's done. No sign. Yes, it is. For the next quarter. How do you declare it done? They have one earnings for the next stock. For the next quarter. But this is a traditional, this happens almost every time with Apple. The stock ramps into the print. That's right. And the stock sells a little bit off. [00:17:29] Speaker 8: Oh, this isn't a little bit off. This is 10%. And first off, I sold it before the earnings because it was priced for perfection, because it had the run, and because I'm discretionary. And I look at the valuation of Apple at mid-30s, and I look at the valuation of Microsoft mid-20s, which I doubled up on back in February. And I'm always trying to go where I can buy low and sell high. And that's exactly what I did with Apple last week. I'm not going to take any heat for that. Will it get to 400, as some people say, Scott? Yes, of course it will. Not in the next quarter. It's in the penalty box for now. [00:17:59] Speaker 6: I'll go to Weiss, who is literally taking monochromatic to an entirely new level today. A man who has managed to pick a shirt that matches the art, that matches the wall. Weiss, that is a skill. Congratulations to you. [00:18:16] Speaker 9: Thank you. Well, this is the East Hampton vibe. So that's all I can say about that. Look, I took a different approach, which is, as I said to you and Kevin, our executive producer, on Thursday, I took the opportunity in declining meta to size it up considerably. I took the opportunity after Microsoft reported, I bought it. I wish I bought it before, but I bought it on the pop to size that up considerably because I see opportunity in both. If you take a look at the valuations, they're still very, very inexpensive. I mean, you've got meta trading at 11 times EBITDA cash flow and 17 PE. Both are at pretty good discounts for the market for these kind of stocks, the market overall in PE. So why not take that opportunity? It's the same bet I made when meta was trading. And I've owned it for a very long time. When meta was trading above 600, close to 800, is that Mark Zuckerberg, you know, he's going to be able to navigate this. And he's not a prisoner to any prior moves that he's made. In other words, if he doesn't think that it's working, after giving it a reasonable time, he's going to get out of it. He's got the safety net of lots of cash flow generation. So that's why I added to meta because it's very cheap. Microsoft, look, I don't think all the questions are answered by any means whatsoever. But what I do know and what my view has been on cloud, which informed my adding to Google on their earnings, is that the need for cloud is going to continue to grow. It's exponential in terms of the need versus non-AI. So you're still lagging what the demands are for cloud. So both should do well. We still don't know what's going to happen with Microsoft's software business. I also bought a small trading position in Apple, which is ill-timed right now. But as we always see, you see some enthusiasm with the new Siri and with the new phones coming out the 18th in September. So I think there's opportunities to be had. So I like being an active manager at this point. But to Joe's point, why I'm invested in Joe is because his screens will catch momentum before I catch it. So that's the benefit of it. So on any given day after earnings, you may win, you may lose. But if you take even an intermediate term approach, you'll do okay. [00:20:43] Speaker 6: Yeah, but part of the issue is that now Joe can't do anything in Microsoft for the next three months. So what do you mean? Let's take the other side of that. He's going to catch momentum before you will. There's a possibility that you're going to have a renewed momentum that could literally last for the entire period that you can't do anything. [00:21:05] Speaker 7: Allow me to take the other side of that. Allow me to take the side of it that says, wait a second, Joe, what you've expressed in the first five minutes where you seem to have personal regret that the ETF sold Microsoft and you wish that it didn't. No, you have to follow your rules. We sold Oracle. We sold Palantir. We sold Synopsys. We sold Microsoft. What did we do, Scott? We basically said the bounce in software, to Steve's point. We don't believe it. So maybe we are selling nothing more than a recovery rebound in software. When you pull back the larger trend of software, it's been a very punitive one. And a lot of people have been punished in that. We did identify in the case of Palantir, January of 25, we're at 16. Okay, we're out now at 125. Earnings tonight. Earnings tonight. And it has been a stock that over the last several quarters has had remarkable earnings. But yet the reaction to earnings has not been favorable. So, look, I don't know the answer, okay? But maybe the possibility does exist that we are getting in front of what is nothing more than a rebound recovery bounce in software itself. [00:22:07] Speaker 6: I'll come back to this in a moment because I want to get a little more on Palantir and I want to get a little more on Oracle, as you said. But I think the next thing that I want to do is what I would call an A plus B equals C, okay? Okay. In terms of the takeaways from hyperscaler earnings that we've gotten so far, the A is that Wells Fargo says hyperscalers are showing ROI, okay? That they alleviated monetization fears. So, if you put that together with B, which is B of A saying that the appetite to invest remains strong, okay? That's A plus B. So, you've got the ROI. You've got the commitment to keep spending. The C is that investors are rewarding the hyperscalers, okay? Bank of America's flow show techs off $15.7 billion in inflows last week. Deutsche Bank talks about a rotation back into tech having rebounded sharply after slowing. [00:23:00] Speaker 8: I like the equation. I'm going to add a variable to it in a second, but I want to go a little bit more into A, B, and C. First off, you've got on A, ROI. You are getting things from, like, Amazon saying that when they invest in a data center, they recoup all that investment in less than three years. That's a very strong ROI. Then, B, in terms of continuing the buildout, the four top hyperscalers are going to do roughly $750 billion of CapEx this year. That's going to $1.2 billion next year. Nobody's blinking, period. Nobody's blinking. And, yes, that is leading to the hyperscalers outperforming, point C. Now, there's a little variable that we do have to consider as we go forward. We're not going to answer this today, but the financing, okay? This is a question that still looms. I know we've been talking about it a lot, but free cash flow is being used up. The debt markets are heavy with all the issuance out there. And, look, we've had some good issuances of secondary equity from the likes of Google. We do have to just keep an eye on where are the funding for all of these projects coming from. It's not a worry today. It's just something to keep an eye on. [00:24:00] Speaker 6: Well, I mean, are you – we might as well bring up Oracle right there. Okay. Right, because the overhang has been sort of prolific now for many months. As Joe sells it, you know, maybe he's thankful he had rules to get him out. [00:24:15] Speaker 8: Yeah. You know what? I like where you're going, and I'm sorry to cut you off, but it's something I wanted to say earlier. How many times, Joe, have your rules looked at something that I'm in and said, Jimmy, you don't – you know, I wouldn't be there, okay? And so as much as I think we've given you just a little bit of grief about Microsoft, that's okay. It's okay. It's okay. There's times that your rules do extremely well. You have a much easier – more often than not. [00:24:35] Speaker 6: By the way, you have a much easier temperament around taking some off the table of winners rather than cutting bait on losers and moving on. [00:24:45] Speaker 8: I think that's absolutely true. And, look, I said it earlier, I'm trying to buy low and sell high. Let me be clear, and everybody who has watched me for a long time knows this, I don't always get it right. Nobody always gets it right. I get it right enough that the strategy works. I'm not sure that Oracle's going to work, but I think it is, Scott. I think it is. [00:25:05] Speaker 6: Joel, if you take Joe's rules as a sort of guidepost, this isn't a matter of opinion. These are a matter of fact. [00:25:13] Speaker 8: That's exactly the point. He's got his strategy. I've got my strategy. But a strategy based on fact. I got you. Mine is based on analysis, and I'm going to use this word discretion, as opposed to rules. Now, in my discretion, I'm sticking with Oracle. If we believe the equation A plus B equals C, if we believe that, and I just said that I do, Oracle's kind of hyper, hyper-scaler here. Now, I look at the credit default swaps. I see those five-year credit default swaps at 200. Yes, that has my attention, that this is a pretty risky name. I've sized it appropriately in the portfolio. I've not added to it right now, or really for the last six months. We'll see if it catches a bit here. But they do need to show the ROI that was part of B in your equation. They're not going to report for, I don't think, another month, Scott. But every earnings report here is an opportunity for them to show that they are getting an ROI, like Microsoft, like Amazon, on the substantial investments they're making. [00:26:08] Speaker 6: You have that, too, Oracle. [00:26:10] Speaker 10: I do. And look, you know, just so you get Oracle and you get Microsoft, right? Rules-based says get out of Microsoft, but fundamentally, Microsoft's improving. Oracle is a value stock. We sold half our position. We said, let's just see where it goes. It's a small size, and I think the opportunity there could be a lot larger when A plus B equals C works. [00:26:30] Speaker 8: And you don't get big opportunity without big risk. That's just not how it works, okay? This is big risk. This is big fall. This could not work out. I suspect it will if Microsoft's going to work out, if Amazon's going to work out, if Alphabet Web Services is going to work out. [00:26:45] Speaker 6: Why are you putting them together as if they're… [00:26:48] Speaker 8: Because they're in the same business. [00:26:50] Speaker 6: Well, then why aren't they, why are they trading differently? [00:26:54] Speaker 8: Because a couple of reasons. One, for instance, let's compare it to Google. Are their balance sheets the same size? Hang on a second. I'm answering your question. If you're looking at, say, a Google, they have a large language model, models plural. They also are designing their own chips. We've talked about that, that triple threat. That's not present in Oracle. In Oracle, we're all talking about just data center and their ROI on data center. Obviously, Amazon's got a number of businesses, not just chips, but also the retail. Microsoft's got a software business that, as much as it's been pilloried over the last few months, I think that's been wrong. So, look, bottom line, Oracle is risky. Obviously, it's risky. That's from whence comes return. [00:27:33] Speaker 7: So, I heard you say before, for the next quarter, Apple is dead money. Yeah. You're expressing this enthusiasm and confidence that Oracle presents a great opportunity here. Can you put a time frame on it? Because here's what I see in Oracle. I see a stock that over the last year is down 45%, down 28% year-to-date. The 12-month price target is ridiculously higher at $253. We know what the condition is as it relates to its usage of debt and participants punishing it for that. So, put a time frame, if you could, on. Do you think this is a stock that's troughing? It's going to make a new all-time high over the next 12 months? [00:28:12] Speaker 8: Yes, but how about before the next all-time high? Let's just look at the last three months, right? This stock was above $200 for a few weeks back in June. What's happened since then? It's that extra variable that I'm talking about, concerns about funding, and particularly with regards to OpenAI to get the funding that is roughly half of the $636 billion of backlog at Oracle. Now, I'm not going to minimize that. That's a real risk. Again, risk is what generates return. However, OpenAI is not the only part of the backlog there. $636 billion. There's another $300-plus billion that's a lot of other large-language models and cloud clients. So, the market is trading this as if this is all on OpenAI, and will they get the funding, et cetera, et cetera. That's what's produced the value that a discretionary manager like myself, or I'll dare to say Surratt, can come in and buy. Doesn't the market know that, though? Doesn't the market know the funding? I don't see where the value is. If the market knew everything, there'd be no opportunity. Coming in a second, Weiss, hang on. If the market knew everything, there'd be no opportunity for any of us to be on the show. There'd be no opportunity for us to generate alpha. The market does not know everything. [00:29:20] Speaker 9: Go ahead, Weiss. Yeah, I don't know how you're looking at value here, Jim, but I see a PE that is higher than Meta, that's right around where Microsoft is. Yeah, EBITDA, their EBITDA is okay on a valuation basis, but still higher than where Meta is. So just because the stock is down so meaningfully, I don't think that defines value. I think the valuation defines value in conjunction with the balance sheet. So I don't see where there's such a great opportunity there, because in order for them to drive a higher PE, you're already going to get there with Microsoft and Meta and Google and others that present a much more compelling valuation proposition. So where's the value that you're identifying? [00:30:12] Speaker 8: I 100% respect what you're saying. And it's just a difference of opinion that you and I will have. And you've chosen to go with the horse that is Meta, absolutely fine. But numbers are numbers, Jim, is my point. Yeah, and so let me give you some numbers, and they're up on the screen here. It's trading at a 17, Oracle, trading at a 17.5 times forward price to earnings multiple. And if, here's the big if, Steve, you know it's a big if. If the funding for OpenAI and all these other large language models come through, that PE in the coming years goes down to like 13. I'm not sure if it's possibly that you're looking at the trailing multiple if you're comparing this to Microsoft. No, I'm looking forward to it. I'm looking at 26. I'm looking at 26 and 27. I'm just saying what's on the screen here, what is it right there, 17.3. I don't know. You know what? We don't have to argue about the multiple. The two of us have made our bets on basically the same thing, which is that the AI trade and the infrastructure build out is going to be positive free cash flow. Both of these companies, Meta and Oracle, are having negative free cash flow right now. They're both being painted with the same brush. I respect your choice, and I've made mine. [00:31:18] Speaker 10: Just to add to you, look, you're looking at a PE, but in our view, my view, I'm going to speak for you, the E is lower than what we think it is. So the E is the one that's going to go higher, and that will then compress the multiple, which will then give you a higher multiple down the road. [00:31:33] Speaker 9: So do you think, do you think, just one more sense if I could, Scott, so do you think I'm looking at Meta and Microsoft because I don't think the E is going to go higher? That's what you look at in every company, so I don't understand the validity of that statement. It applies to all stocks you own. I'm saying that the E is depressed, Steve. Well, I'm saying the E is going to grow on the others, when I've got better balance sheets. [00:31:55] Speaker 6: No, but that's the rub. You say the earnings are depressed and they're not going to recover. They say the earnings are depressed and have a lot of upside, which is why they're staying in the name and why you have no interest. But I wouldn't. [00:32:07] Speaker 9: No, I'm not saying they won't recover. I'm saying it's a much bigger bet than to recover because there are things that are out of their control dealing with OpenAI, and they made the bet on OpenAI that they're going to be the winner, and I'm not so sure that's the case. So I'm not only betting on the company, I'm betting on another company that's had somewhat of a jaded history despite how relatively new it is to the investing public. [00:32:32] Speaker 6: The other thing I wanted to do is, you've upped your, no, because, I mean, you've sold it. You've sold it. It speaks for itself as to why you've sold it. Now we'll see what happens with the earnings tonight. The cyber exposure, which you've upped. Stocks that have gone through various forms of momentum gains and losses. There was a moment where it seemed it was gone, and then it came back, and not only came back, it came back in a big way. Which is now you upped your exposure to Okta, Palo Alto, and Fortinet. [00:33:01] Speaker 7: Yeah, and it came back really fast. If we remember, it was that month of April through May where you had that staggering rally kind of out of nowhere. So you get your first opportunity. Personally, I reestablished the position in CrowdStrike. And it's interesting because, you know, this entire conversation that we're having, there is validity to recognizing where there is fundamental momentum in the market. And I think we all have to be very careful with one earnings report reversing what the appearance of fundamental momentum might be. So in the case of the cybersecurity names, they very clearly have very strong fundamental momentum, and they've carried that forward. But think for a second about the last week. You said Apple, next quarter goes nowhere. I'm not disagreeing with your price direction, Paul. But has the fundamental momentum changed that much from where it was previously? Now we're talking also about Microsoft. Microsoft came in with awful fundamental momentum. And one earnings report, we've changed that. So price has a way of very quickly, in a very short time frame, changing sentiment. And I just caution everyone, be a little bit careful with that. [00:34:13] Speaker 2: Hey guys, welcome to Blue Cloud Trading. We just saw some clips from the halftime report and from Squawk Box. Tom Lee was on this morning. And let's take a look at the stocks and ETFs. Not all of them, but a good portion of the stocks that they discussed. We're going to look at the about, let's see, 13 here. Out of the 13, there's just one of them that actually qualified for a blue flag. What does that mean? It means that basically it met the criteria of the Ichimoku indicator, which is what we're looking at right here. That's the Ichimoku, Japanese indicator. In order for it to get the blue flag price, it should be above the moving averages. The nine period, which is that green line above the red line, that's the 26 period. The Cinco Span A is the light colored blue line. And the Cinco Span B is the purple line. We want that light colored blue line above the purple line. We want the green line above the red line and price above all these moving averages. We also want this current price, which is projected 26 periods into the past in that white line form that you see right there. We want that white line to be above the candle 26 periods ago, which it is. So all of those criteria have been met on the weekly chart and they've also been met on the daily chart, as you can see here, because Amazon gapped up a few times, right? Since Thursday, July 30th, there's the big gap up there. This was Friday's candle and here's Monday's. So some big moves happening. The market itself, I'm just showing you guys what's going on with the market very quickly. It is currently 4.57 p.m. Eastern time as I'm recording this video. The Dow closed up 1.32%. NASDAQ was up 2.13. S&P 500 up 1.48. And the Russell 2000 was up 1.72. Here's the heat map that kind of shows you a little bit more, some insight about how the stocks performed. The only one of the, you know, one of the big technology names, Apple, was down 1.78. But you're looking at Google and Meta and Amazon, Tesla all up. NVIDIA was up. Microsoft was up. The energy stocks did not perform well. Healthcare stocks didn't do so well. But everything else, the majority of stocks did well today. And what caused all of this? Well, we can take a look at some of the headlines here. U.S. stocks closed sharply higher as easing U.S.-Iran tensions. Sent oil lower and strong ISM data reinforced the growth and fed disinflation hopes. So, you know, we see this, though, on a day-by-day basis change. So tomorrow could be a completely different scenario. And so we have to keep that in mind. But today was a good day. So we'll accept that. Let's take a look at the rest of these stocks, like Apple, for example, which was down 1.78% today. You can see on Thursday, well, actually, it all started on Wednesday. We had this reversal-type candle right there. Okay. And then price gapped down and gapped down the next day. And then it's been staying under the 26 period. That's the red line that you see here. Okay. So the fact that we're still under that level is concerning for Apple. If you look at the weekly chart, it's pulled back a little bit. It's still above the 26 here on the weekly. But it's pulled back. It's under the 317.40, this prior high. And it's not looking as strong as some of the other stocks. CrowdStrike. Holdings. Look at this one here, moving sideways on the weekly chart. It's above the moving averages in the cloud. But on the daily chart, the faster moving average. Okay. This green line is under the red line. So it's not quite there yet. We have a lower low here from the prior low. So we need a little bit more confirmation. We're going to find some resistance at 2.17.50. ETH, which is the Ethereum ETF on the daily chart you can see here, is inside the cloud. So this is also a stock, I'm sorry, an ETF that I wouldn't be considering at this point. It has found some support down here on the 14.64 level. As you can see, we have a double bottom pattern that had formed. But it's been going sideways now for a few weeks. It's not really taking off yet. And it was only up 0.11%. What about Google? Google today actually broke through the cloud on the daily chart. But the cloud itself is still bearish. Again, the sync of span A is still under the sync of span B, the blue line. The light-colored blue line is under the purple. And so what does that tell us? It's just telling us that, you know, this action that you're seeing here is still, we're still not out of the clear, you know, out of the clouds yet. So we've got a series of lower highs, right? So you can see those right there. And we're still under those, right? And we're still under this resistance level. I would be a little bit concerned. I want to see some more confirmation here. We still have this lower low from the prior low, okay? And if you look at the weekly, it does look much more bullish, obviously. So I like what I'm seeing here because last week we did close above both of the moving averages. Price had gapped up, moved up, closed above. Can it continue here this week? We'll see. Or is it going to run out of steam? That's the thing that you want to watch out for. G-R-N-Y. And you know, one of the things you can also do if you have a position in any of these stocks is to also switch it down to a shorter time frame, like a 30-minute time frame. So you can see how Google has been holding up above the cloud here since July 28th. And since then, it's moved up 11.5%. So it's been doing quite well. G-R-N-Y on the 30-minute looks good. Let's look at the weekly, though. On the weekly chart, we're still stuck inside this box, basically. We're still stuck in a consolidation zone on the weekly. If you look at the daily chart, we've got the faster moving average under this lower one still. We have a lower high here from the prior, yeah, lower, I'm sorry, lower low from the prior low. All right. A trend line has been broken for G-R-N-Y. This is Tom Lee's ETF, the U.S. large cap ETF. So that trend line right there was broken today. So that's good with the scandal. IBIT, Bitcoin, still stuck under the cloud on the daily chart. I would hold off on this one, too. All right. Meta is inside the cloud. This is an interesting chart. It's very messy. Meta has been a messy-looking stock because a lot of volatility. You can see the big gap downs here. Very large candles. A lot of price movement. Price had gapped down. Once it got under the cloud here, it dropped all the way down to these levels, which were around $526. Now it's up to $590 per share, which is interesting. So it's actually moved up about, let's see, somewhere around 12 point something percent into the cloud, 12.4. So it's inside the cloud. It's still not a buy signal here by any means. MNR, which is Mach Natural Resources, has been steadily been moving up. But it's also in a series of lower lows that have not been, that hasn't been broken yet. So if we look here at this prior low, we have another low here. But the good news is this trend line has been broken, right? And we still have to break above this high, which we haven't done yet on this one. I'd hold off on MNR. Microsoft, let's take a look at Microsoft. Up 4.93% today. Looking very bullish, right? The cloud has turned bullish. The Syncospan A crossed above the Syncospan B recently when price got above the $200. We broke above this high today. So last week, it didn't actually make it above that high, above that candle. This week, it has on Monday. So will it continue to the upside? That's the question, right? It's looking pretty interesting. The thing is, it's kind of, it's moved up a lot, okay? It's a little bit extended at these levels. So far away from the moving averages, you know, how many more candles can it go up at this point? I think that we may, if there's just one negative day this week, we're going to see this pullback in the technology stocks. Oracle was up 9.26% today. Big move for Oracle. Big candle here. Closed above the 26 period. It's still in a decline overall, right? And so it's under this cloud. I wouldn't be adding positions here unless you're like a more short-term trader and you want to trade this on a 30-minute chart, okay? You can knock yourself out with that 30-minute chart. It looks good. You see it broke above the cloud right there. It's moved up 15.21%, and you can manage that trade based on that time frame or even a 15-minute chart, okay? PLTR. Let's look at this one on the weekly. It's under the cloud on the daily chart. It's also under the cloud and looking bearish. No thanks on that. XLK, the technology ETF. Let's start off with a weekly chart here. Still under this trend line, okay? So technology hasn't really, I mean, it was up 1.6% today. Nothing major happening here with technology. Here's the daily chart. Still under the 26 period. Still in a decline. Still in a series of lower highs and lower lows. Nothing has been changed there. All right. So what I'm going to do next, guys, is go ahead and play another clip from CNBC, and then I'll follow that up with some more analysis of those specific stocks and ETFs that they discussed. [00:43:56] Speaker 6: SpaceX shares around their lowest level since going public, and some big events are looming this week. Much talked about lockup expirations, earnings tomorrow. We'll focus on the lockups first. That's where the biggest drag on the stock has clearly been. Morgan Brennan joins us now with the details as we look ahead to that. Hi there. [00:44:16] Speaker 11: Hey, Scott. That's right. Stratospheric milestones for SpaceX. Well, let's start here. It's the supply story. So when the first stock lockup expires on Thursday, you've got 911 million shares owned by about 20% of insiders and early investors become eligible to sell. Just to put that in perspective, SpaceX sold 629 million shares, or less than 5% of shares outstanding in the IPO. That's just the first wave. Through the end of September, the public float is poised to triple. Supply will continue to swell until next June. And in total, according to Morningstar, share total could climb to, at least in theory, more than 6.4 billion shares. Now, this is one reason that SpaceX shares have tumbled to about 20%. We bounced back a little bit from that today here in trading. From the IPO price down more than 50% from the intraday high, Wall Street is betting that this continues. S3 Partners says short sellers now holds 32% of the company's current publicly tradable float. We've got more on that on CNBC Pro. But in the meantime, first earnings as a public company. That happens tomorrow after the bell. And here is what to watch with that report. Starlink results, CapEx plans, and guidance for Starship after a successful 13th test flight. Starship is really key to the future growth plans, including those data centers in space. How much do Starlink subscriber growth, NeoCloud deals with the likes of Anthropic and Google, and multi-billion dollar government contracts offset the cash burn associated with the AI buildup? That will be the key question that investors are looking to have answered by Elon Musk and co. tomorrow night. Scott? [00:45:51] Speaker 6: All right. It's going to be a big week. Morgan, thanks so much for that. That is Morgan Brennan setting the table for us. I almost feel like it's like, oh, yeah, the earnings, because all the talk has been about the lockup. And if you look at the stock activity from the day it went public until today, all I keep hearing about is lockup, lockup, lockup. And that's why the stock has been weak anticipating that. [00:46:13] Speaker 7: For sure. It's interesting that the lockup comes 48 hours after the earnings. I'm not sure that I like that setup in the calendar. The estimated move according to the options market is somewhere around 15%. That is a pretty big move for what SpaceX is going to be trading like in the days after the earnings report. I think obviously we know it's going to be a loss. I think the level of the loss is important to understand. I also think this is the first step towards those like myself who have said it's very difficult to fundamentally value this company to begin to understand what this company is all about. But I don't like the setup, Scott, as you move through the entirety of the year. Even as you move into 2027, Elon's own stake in SpaceX unlocks and he has the ability to sell. I don't like that setup. I don't like the way the stock is traded. And I definitely don't like the way the debt market, the secondary debt market, priced the debt. [00:47:13] Speaker 6: My value guys over here are obviously going to say they don't like it because you can't value it. The man who chooses beige is his obvious favorite color. I don't know what your opinion on this might be. But you're the type of person who at some point might take a little action on this name, maybe. [00:47:36] Speaker 9: I would, but, you know, the deluge of stock, I don't think it's all been discounted, what's coming on the market. So you're just going to see this being highly volatile. If you're a day trader or even an algo trader and you could figure out the patterns, well, then you could trade it. But otherwise, this is one of those that fits into my bucket of life is too short and it's much too difficult. So they are going to show a loss. There will be positive things in there. We saw it in the S1. Starlink is doing amazingly well. I mean, it's unprecedented the growth that it's had for that kind of technology. But I just think the stock, you know, the way the stock trades is going to overcome any fundamentals. And to your point, just can't value it. I don't even know if you'd be able to value it if it gets down to 60 and say it's sufficiently, you know, disregarded all the negatives so forth. So, I'm out. [00:48:32] Speaker 6: What do you guys think? By the way, it could be taupe instead of age. Now I'm contradicting my stuff, I'm feeling weird. Next toe. Next toe. Yeah. What? The whole thing? [00:48:44] Speaker 9: My life. My life is taupe. You know, I'm such a, I'm such a Casper milquetoast kind of guy. This guy, very even keel, never emotional or anything. And I think my background proves that out. [00:48:56] Speaker 6: Okay. Okay. Well, the foreground too. [00:48:59] Speaker 10: You know, I'm really interested in the conference call to see the vision to get explained now even more. It's a very intriguing company. And obviously, on a fundamental basis, hard to invest in. But, you know, the space part of it, the startling part of it, the growth part of that, the AI, there's so much that's of interest to all of us that comes back to your A, B, C question because it's going to be part of all of that. [00:49:25] Speaker 6: Energy, best sector, year to date, not even close, up 32%. Okay. In July, up 12.5%. Now, we're still talking about oil prices. I totally get it. And the fact that they have moved significantly lower after going, you know, above 100. Joe T. Yes, sir. Bought Exxon. Bought Exxon. These guys own it. And a whole bunch of energy needs. Pioneer, Conoco, Enterprise Products, Kinder, One Oak, Targa, Texas Pacific Land, Williams. Yep. Okay. So, the momentum's going to continue, obviously. [00:50:04] Speaker 7: Good one, Scott. Well, we certainly hope so. The momentum has been there. And let's remember something. Before the Middle East conflict, the energy sector was the leading sector year to date. January and February, energy came out really strong. People like Jimmy were recognizing the valuation of the sector. The momentum has built. I clearly see right now the momentum factor is shifting. It's shifting a little bit away from AI. And it's going to more of the hard assets, as Josh Brown likes to call them. Halo stocks. Energy. Halo stocks. And energy clearly fits in that description for sure. So, through the remainder of the year, look, figuring out what oil prices are going to go, Steve will tell you that's nearly impossible to do. I do think there's an upward bias. I do think as it relates to energy, there's a little bit of disbelief that they can continue to move higher. So, I'm comfortable with now taking a 10% weighting in energy. And the one area of energy that I really love and we maintained is the refiner trade. [00:51:07] Speaker 6: 10% is probably now double, correct, of what energy is and part of the S&P. More than double. [00:51:16] Speaker 10: S&P is about 3%. Now, see, okay. [00:51:20] Speaker 6: I thought maybe since the move in the stocks that it had gotten a higher weighting. That's why I said 5%. [00:51:24] Speaker 10: But fundamentally, when I look at a portfolio, I'm taking money off energy now. Because it's done everything I wanted to do. I still have it in the portfolio. I think it's a great hedge in the portfolio. But I'm looking to say, hey, wow, where do I think oil is going to be? Not really higher in a year. And if it's higher in a year, it's because things are going really wrong geopolitically. It's not going up higher because the economy is going really strong. [00:51:49] Speaker 8: I'm going to disagree with my esteemed value colleague over here. I like that. Yeah. I mean, two reasons that I'll put this out. And it has less to do with where oil is going. We've got to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, not just here in the U.S., but everywhere. And I don't think, you know, we hear all this talk about, well, if the trade opens, we're going to have a surplus. No, we're not when we add back in that demand of all these inventories that really, really need to be refilled. That's number one. Number two, your Valero call and your refining calls have been genius. And you know who's one of the biggest refiners out there? Who's that, Jimmy? It's on mobile. One of the biggest refiners. We don't talk about it because it's buried in a super major integrated oil company that does exploration and production and transportation and distribution and all this other stuff like chemicals. But it's a great big refiner. [00:52:33] Speaker 7: Genius. Good move. Thinking in energy can be a problem sometimes. [00:52:39] Speaker 10: No, no, no, I'm not. I never, I never go. I've always had a position in energy. It's now become oversized. So when I start looking at my positions, where else am I going to add to it? All right. [00:52:51] Speaker 6: I'm told we have no more time. Direct quote. Steve Weiss, what do you got? Final trade. [00:52:57] Speaker 9: Dick's sporting is good. I'm just going on decline to add some more. [00:53:02] Speaker 6: Man, I thought you were going to pick like clay or mud or Sherwin-Williams. All right. What do you got? You don't check. Trans-Dine. Apologo-Low. Steel Dynamics. All right. The exchanges now. [00:53:13] Speaker 2: All right. So we're going to take a look at some of these other stocks and ETFs that you see here, including SpaceX, Exxon, and also take a look at the indices right after that, the SPY, the Qs, the Dow, and we also have some member requests, a couple of stocks here, NEO and Curb. So let's get started. First, we'll look at SpaceX. Now, when I'm analyzing this one, because it's a relatively new stock and there's not enough data here for the Ichimoku indicator to actually plot correctly, because there's not enough information, right? I switch it over to the 30-minute chart and we can see a little bit more clearly what's been happening with SpaceX since its introduction to the markets here. SPCX has been declining since it reached these levels, right? You can see where price got into the moving averages and that since then, it's moved up down 43.18%, huge drop. Right now, though, today was an interesting day. I say that because price broke above the cloud. Now, it happened back here. That was short-lived. It also, did it happen, it looks like it happened right there with the reversal candle. It happened over here back in around June 30th or so, very short-lived. It could be a short-lived scenario, right? And so, but it's looking bullish today. It was up 5.62% on the 30-minute chart. We still have a bearish cloud, though. And we're still under this 200-day declining 30-minute chart. You look at the daily chart, pretty bearish, though, okay, overall. So, nothing to do as far as I'm concerned. I personally wouldn't be investing in that one. XOM, which is Exxon, it actually closed under the 9 period. But I do like the type of candle that formed here. If we switch it to a 3-minute chart, we can see that, okay, price basically opened here, moved up, dropped, and then it started moving back up again. So, there's some potential that the energy stocks might recover next, tomorrow, or, you know, if we see negativity in the geopolitical schemes of things. Let's look at the weekly chart. Here's the weekly chart. It's still right under the 26 period. But an interesting thing that happened here with Exxon, if we look at this, take this high here on the weekly chart, and this high here, right, whoops, and we draw a trend line, you'll see how that trend line was broken. And so, right now, what I'd be watching very closely is the high of this candle, which is 163.68. Okay, let me throw that in there. There we go. It is a weekly level, so it's a more important level to watch. We'll see if we can break through that. Again, here's the daily chart. Let's take a look at DKS. That's Dick's Sporting Goods in the specialty retail industry, and this one's under the cloud on the daily chart. Still very bearish. I would stay out of that one. TDG. We have the faster moving averages under the slower one, but it did break back above the cloud in the daily, but let's take a look at the weekly. Yeah, it's still in a decline and actually in a downward channel. So, if you take, again, that high and that high, and we draw the trend line all the way across, and we throw another trend line on the bottom, that's a downward channel. Not something you want to be adding positions into as it's declining, because it can certainly continue to the downside. Wait for the change in sentiment. And we'll see, we'll know when that happens, when price breaks above the cloud, we can start thinking about that stock as a long, you know, for a long position at that point. APO is still under the clouds as well. That's the Apollo Global Management Inc. And so, it was up 3.13%, but I would stay out of that one also for the time being. STLD, up 2.83% today. Here is the weekly chart. Today, you can see it broke above this nine period. We won't know what this candle looks like until Friday of this week, because we're looking at a weekly chart. Let's look at the daily. It's still stuck inside the cloud. So, STLD still needs to, I personally would want to hold until Friday to confirm that price is, in fact, is going to close above. You can wait until the afternoon to see if that happens. We'll get a better understanding of the direction of steel. Okay, let's take a look at the next one, guys. We're going to look at the SPY very quickly here. Stuck in the box, up 1.42%. Technically, got another blue flag, because on the weekly chart, it looks good. Prices above the moving averages in the cloud, same thing here on the daily, but the fact that we're still under this resistance level of 760.40, leads me to, you know, not very impressed with what's going on here. We want to see a breakout, and that hasn't happened, okay? FEZ, the Eurostoxx, also, you know, this last week, it actually gapped up on Thursday, moved up some more today, but it stalled at the 70.52 level. This prior high from June 17th. So right now, it's reached its target. Tomorrow, we need to see, will it break through that 70.52 and close above it? That's the thing I'd be watching. All right, let's look at QQQ, which is still in a downward channel. All right, not something I would be considering here, obviously. Even though it's moved up, look where it stalled, right around the 26th period. The Dow, DIA, is looking a little bit more bullish. Price gapped up. It was up 1.33% today, but it also stalled right under this prior high, so of 532.78. And we have a faster-moving average under this lower one. Russell 2000, we have the faster-moving average under this low one. Still stuck in this box. No thanks on that one. Here's the VIX. Still declining, which is good. Down 1.44% today. That's the volatility index. Gold was up 0.05%, still stuck in this consolidation zone, and silver doing the same thing. It was up 0.19% today. All right, let's take a look at the members' requests. We've got NEO, which is stuck in a box. It did break above this 1557 level, this prior high today. But it's been basically moving up above it, and then closing below it, and then closing back above it. That's why we need to see more confirmation. We need to see price now. At this point, personally, I would just wait for it to break above the box itself, the highs of this box, just to confirm that this is going to be a real move. Because if we get an actual candle, all right, that closes above, it's a higher probability trade to the upside at that point. And then, so that's the daily chart. Here's a weekly chart. All right. We will find some resistance. Let's see. What's that high there? It's 1911. Probably a level that you want to jot down if you want to be managing this. There we go, 1911. How far are we from there? We're approximately 17% away, which is nice. That could be a nice move. Curb. This is the first week where it actually dropped onto the nine period in a while. The last time it was under was back here on April 2nd. Since that point, it's actually moved up 15%. So right now, you know, you're getting negativity was down 1.24%. And again, this candle could reverse by the end of this week. I would watch the daily chart very closely. We're also very close to the top of the cloud. This is more of a managing trade at this point. You want to determine whether or not you want to hold this position. If it can continue, you know, holding above the cloud, it will have one more level of support, the bottom part of the cloud as well. All right. So that does it for this video. I'm just going to show you guys how you can access a few things. If you want to get this Finviz Elite software or this trading software that I use here, what you want to do is go to my YouTube channel, Blue Cloud Trading. And if you click here, which has 10 more links, you'll see a little description of the channel. Scroll down a little bit. And it's right here that you will find the Finviz Elite link. Whoops. Right there. And if you want to get a $25 coupon for the TC2000 software, there it is. Okay. Click on that and you will be able to enter your email address and, you know, you'll receive a $25 coupon so that you can practice. You know, you can actually do, set up a paper trading account. Why not? Check on your stocks. You know, if you want to check on your mutual funds. A lot of you guys are investors in mutual funds. Did you know that you can also check mutual funds through here? There's a lot of pretty cool things. Let me see if I can find, I want to see if I can find how, let me see. Give me one second. Okay. I found it. Basically, you click on watch lists. You scroll down. You can see all the different types of areas that you can trade. You can even trade forex through this platform. Canadian ETFs. There's a whole bunch of cool things. But the mutual funds, if you scroll down a little bit, let's see where, there they are. Check this out. There are approximately 32,765. Do you see that right there? It's just tons and tons and tons of mutual funds listed in here. When you do search for one, I'll just kind of like throw one. Let's see. We'll hit the percentage change and see what moved up the most today. I'm curious to see which ETF was up the most. Let's say THDIX. Let's see what that's all about. Now, let's switch it to a weekly chart so you can see what that looks like. So, this is the Thornburg Developing World Fund class. Interesting. Okay. Don't know much about it. But from there, you can actually do some more research. Use Finviz, for example, to find out more about this. You can see it's pulled back, breaking above the nine period. It looks great on the weekly and on the daily chart. When you're looking at mutual funds, it doesn't actually show the Japanese candlesticks. It shows it as a line form for whatever reason. But if you switch it to a weekly chart, there you have it. I would trade the mutual funds more based on the weekly charts anyway. So, this one looks pretty good. Anyway, guys, that's going to do it for this video. Thanks for watching and thank you for supporting the channel. Don't forget to like, subscribe, share this video with someone. Okay. Copy the link. Send it to someone. And I hope you guys are all having a great summer so far. I did a little, took some vacation time this last week. I'm sure I'll take a little bit more. It's August and the weather is beautiful. So, have a good one. I'll catch you all in the next one. [01:04:40] Speaker 1: Bye. Bye. [01:04:42] Speaker ?: Bye. Bye. [01:04:42] Speaker 1: Bye. [01:05:10] Speaker ?: Bye.