The Worst Jobs Report in Years Just Fired Bitcoin's Rarest Buy Signal

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: baby friday just like that song and there's actually plenty of things to discuss today more so for the short-term time frames but also for the higher-term time frames i did completely completely completely up uh talking about a higher-term time from on uh signal on yesterday's video despite even mentioning it at the beginning of the video so we'll go over that today also i've taken uh one new trade as well and i do see a beautiful comment over here the beautiful comment is this crown you bastard make us some money and invoke the moons for 72 000 bucks well if you actually missed this uh this actually did fire off with the old bula moon right there great little short for youtube as well uh that fired off on july 29th and that does have a 14-day period more or less of general upside i mean of course it is not 100 guaranteed we have seen several of these signals over the past year fire off scrolling back all the way to the beginning of 2026 in this case we've seen one two three four five six seven eight previous signals of those eight previous signals two of them i would say failed they didn't produce any like general upside movement for bitcoin but for the ones that did they were pretty damn good we can see the average win on those on on those positive moons if you will the bull moons uh there was about an average turn of almost 12 and a half percent which would put bitcoin at current if bitcoin were to play out a similar move from that general moon open to what to well as you've correctly stated about 72 000 bucks which is rather interesting and there is a a time frame on that as well because ultimately like i said these do take about two week periods for the new moon to come in and that would put us in where out of somewhere around the 13th of august so that would be what next week about a week from about a week from now week from uh yeah a week from yesterday week from week from today something like that um would kind of suggest somewhere around there if this does play out in that fashion and look um ultimately bitcoin did close above the revenue ribbons that we did lay out over the past few days here it reclaimed it more importantly on tuesday's closure then yesterday and thursday so wednesday and thursday it did solidify that 48 hour rule so so far so good i'm still looking at that mid band as a nice basing point it is 64 566 and ultimately i'm i mean i'm looking at this right now it it does look a little bit shaky to me to be fair but whether it uh whether it falls through here to the upside you know back above 67 000 bucks or whether it actually fails back down below that 64 566 pivot on a daily closing basis again specific to cme with electronic trading outs because if you're in a lot of uh i i i i think maybe i haven't made that clear as to how this is calculated and so there's been some confusion around this but yes this has held through thus far if bitcoin does close back down below there i really don't think bitcoin's gonna make new lows here i do think that bitcoin basis yet again somewhere around last week's low at 62 500 to 63 000 bucks and probably uh it probably rallies from there but other than that um we should go over to we should go over where we should go over to uh who do i want to start off with actually start off over with the general information of the day of course we got a lot of new things coming in of as of this morning payrolls just went negative which generally would not be a good thing uh first outright monthly job loss in years which is kind of crazy against 80 000 expected uh unemployment fell to four spot one percent for the wrong reason participation dropped to 61 spot 40 percent people simply left the labor market i guess wages grew three spot 20 percent and the slow and that's been the slowest since may of 2021 uh in may slash june got revised down a combined 103 000 this is fine just play that meme you know with the dog sitting in the background while the house is burning this is fine everything's all good no problem no problem at all the labor market was weaker than anyone thought for longer than anyone thought but here's the thing bitcoin rallied markets rallied anyways which kind of signed in and of itself and more importantly um i think that something came out saying that the fed was just not going to even use this data to make the next decision anyway so i guess that's why things uh you know if you wanted a reason why things rallied i suppose that would be it anyways like i said bitcoin rallied into the worst number of the year more or less than the worst number actually in multiple years for some reason uh opened at 64 259 roughly 65 288 within 90 minutes of the release the worst macro catalyst of summer produced a green dildo amazing incredible underneath four straight days of etf inflows near 755 million uh which is the biggest week in many months uh ibid dominating i actually even bought some ibid myself as well and wales adding over one spot two billion billion with a b since late july that is with uh sorry that is what compression resolving upwards looks like typically so i do still remain an overall bullish buys for this range the range being basically what we've been saying for quite some time now which is those july highs versus the 62 000 low as long as bitcoin is playing between that it's more or less compression continuing onwards and forwards and the bias at least for me is as of right now in upside breakout doesn't mean it needs to break to the upside like this exact moment but ultimately yeah i am looking for 67 000 bucks to be reclaimed rather than the opposite anyways uh of course down over here the cm uh the cme fed watch uh september hold for the rate hikes is at about four or sorry the hold is at 60 um rate the hike is at about 40 rate let's go over and check out what they're saying on calci right now i'm curious what the economics um are projecting right here yeah very similar actually fed decision in december is about 64 probability that they maintain rate i i've been watching these pretty um consistently now for the economics on calci and also the bitcoin um closures these are really good and these and there actually is a lot of signal in these the market is typically right here which is kind of funny because typically people think oh the market's always wrong or the people the majority of people are are are mostly wrong but in this case uh that's just not what i've seen uh not what i've seen like people are accurately um you know putting their money where their mouth is uh at least since i've been watching this for the past month or so now um of course there is also a market as there always is on calci there's a market for everything um for the next fed rate hike uh some about 54 probability before the end of this year 2027 and a 72 probability like a 72 probability of the next rate hike like they are assuming a rate hike before july of 2027 so basically a year from now um i thought that that was really really interesting i i mean you know that is a very high probability as of this moment i don't know if i'd necessarily i probably wouldn't take that myself in fact while we're here on calcium let's go check out some of the some of the bitcoin marks i've been having so much fun with these yes i do have a show link in the description below for calci like i say treat this as just fun money ultimately i've been building up a 100 account now i'm at three tree 50 i took a nice loss yesterday it is what it is man that's part of the game but i do like playing these hourlies over here they are fun when there is something obvious anyways this market for uh for the end of hour in 15 minutes is projecting bitcoin 64 900 closure or above 44 47 probability let's see what that chart looks like right now in the short term let's just give away my hand for the next major signal to be aware of but let's go over here to the hourly time frame would i be guesstimating it's going to hold that 15 minute i certainly wouldn't be betting on it right now so yeah anyways my shill link in particular does give you up to 500 in free cash um as soon as you trade 50 in in volume and look i'm just using this for very very very small dollar stuff i use it to you know as my fun money as my fun time to pass the time because i've been playing video games recently that said treat it as you will i suppose anyways um back into our nice little uh presentation right here um let's talk about oil as well oil is the one crashing the party too no no hormuz deal hormuz hormozy deal uh iran is drafting cargo penalties and vessel bands instead and brent climbed one spot four percent into the jobs report the 10 year sits near about four spot six two percent off the highs which is kind of kind of scary a little bit uh still in the zone where nothing good happens rising crude plus tuesday cpi is the exact combination that could cap this balance uh so do keep an eye on that as we'll get into next week the events to be aware of obviously monday you got strategies weekly treasury update doesn't i don't think that that matters that much honestly but people love to talk about that sort of shit uh tuesday however is july cpi so that you know that would be the next sort of event i suppose to look forward to the single number that decides whether today's dovish relief survives um not uh again hot print rearm to september at hawks and i guess at that point you know you can see those probabilities rise significantly um friday one of my call legs expires in fact i got a nice update on that as to what i'm doing in fact let's just get right into that or we go over the map here's here's your map here's the trade um i actually added a leg to this trade now as well so let's go into that but first yeah first let's go over the next big signal um i completely whiffed on bringing this up uh on any other video during this week because this actually got confirmed as of last week but the lti indicator which if you're if you haven't been here for a while um the lti is something i don't bring up that often because you just don't get signals that often being that it is a well as the name would imply a long-term investor tool i use this for very long-term uh you know good value buying areas this one is specifically appropriated to bitcoin the settings that i use for this particular one as well is covered by the way on the teachable documentations um and in this case we just got another strong buy signal as of last week's closure and by the way if you're new and you're looking at this you're like hey wait what the crown just said over here strong buy signal and it went down and you'd be 100 right but let me explain because there is a nice little explanation for this um these signals have been incredibly consistent in the past on macro lows whenever we've seen that first strong buy signal on uh you know in that cycle in that downward cycle the bottom has come about 20 off of that exact signal so i'll just measure this first one here to the closing price low 20 spots 65 loss over the course of about six months almost uh that number very similar to what we saw actually in 2018 as well hey show me that there we go uh right and over here we can see of course of course uh this strong bicycle closing about uh 20 spot 61 away from of course the low here as well and then and then if we go over to 2014 2015 we can see the same strong bicycle over here what do you know from the closing low 22 spot 85 away from there not bad so very very consistent and what do you know on this current one from that first strong bicycle to the current low we have seen 22 spot 64 uh to the downside oh sorry is is uh does it actually sound like a thunderstorm um if uh oh sorry let me know um because i'm actually have a fan above me right now and i don't know if that's picking up on the mic if it is let me know and uh and i'll be happy to turn that down what's up grayden i see over there thank god it's friday hope everyone's having a great day yes indeed indeed let's get over to the options trade now so this signal produce or produced me propelled me to take my next option trade in alignment with what i already have which if you watch yesterday's video it is kind of like a it's a bastardized short strangle uh what i did here however based upon that uh sorry based upon that signal is i added to my short put strike actually um so here's my strangle over here i added another 10 contracts so i'm at 30 total the average price has now gone down to about 475 but you can see that improves my uh my maximum profit a little bit right there a little bit um ultimately though like i said i probably will end up i i might end up buying these calls back and just keeping the short puts open if bitcoin gets a pullback over the weekend because these calls as of right now are are i think i'm at like a very slight loss if any at all um so i'd rather actually buy those back if bitcoin survives these next couple days into the weekends you know let decay work for for another couple days and just keep the short put like again that will kind of be a little bit easier to cover in my opinion just because you know coming off that strong bison will be more or less expect that low to hold which is 62 225 on uh on the index right there and if bitcoin does close below there even just you know even just really wick below there at that point i'll probably just cover that side anyways preemptively so i'll make on the difference between two to five 62 225 and 62 000 even i suppose uh but again for right now um i did i did add that that's really all that i got going on for my side of things um should we update on anything else we do have the weekly closure coming in today for cme a couple of things with the weekly closure or sorry weekly closure right here weekly stocast momentum is probably going to remain to the upside i mean as long as bitcoin's above 60 950 that will hold true so all good right there oh hoi hoi says no something else okay awesome man that's a nice sword but that's my favorite sword best name of all time the oh the foe i was just thinking about that this morning orcrest yeah that is a pretty badass one i found a website that uh makes full tang replicas of the movies or not the movie swords but like the actual book swords um they're and they're not really that expensive i mean 300 400 bucks you know at most for a lot of these things pretty damn cool also glam drink would be awesome as well uh but yeah man just turgan king turgan's old sword nothing could be cooler um the next thing i'm watching for really here is is is honestly this setup um both on the weekly and the bi-weekly the bi-weekly unfortunately not closing today we got a week we got to wait another seven days for that but the weekly has a couple things going on one two three drives a bullshad verdance on these higher lows on the also with a lower lows on price action plus the weekly crown stochastic which i have not brought up in a long time here um this one uh kind of lifting off those lows as well but not as not as good of a potential signal as what the bi-weekly is potentially putting in there that is if if that plays out in the way that i think it may meaning that it's going to bounce on the next uh you know on the next open again we have to wait seven days for this but if it does that would be another really strong signal for me uh but for right now uh we do see the weekly time frame very likely to remain with upside momentum and the bi-weekly time from next week will cross the upside for the first time in quite some time if bitcoin finishes above 62 550 so you know we see momentum pivots also on the opposite side of the ranges i typically like when these things match up um again it also just validates that as a generally good pivot um so i'm happy to position around those pivots because you know if you cover around a pivot and it's a real pivot you don't really have to worry about it you know like running the other way and doing the old dance that i think a lot of people run into when they just blindly do you know strangle straddles um and just and and and try to cover those um just that is where you get into trouble so i do think that knowing a little bit of ta does help a lot in those instances anyway yeah that 50 minute did turn down um i shall do my daily dca on the old corns here on the old dirt base coinbase again going to be the cheapest place to buy spot bitcoins out of any of the major exchanges uh with my show link in the description below as well so i'll be buying 100 bucks a day of bitcoins there see my order going on in the backgrounds um i'll just continue doing this until i run out of money basically great idea crown great idea all right cool um i think we got through everything that i wanted to speak about um yeah all right let me just pull this chart to the front there we can we'll keep that chart in the back but i just want to mix everything around so that i'm not just flying across this whole analysis today again the rev and ribbons mid band will still be a nice line in the sand well like i said if bitcoin does break down below it i'm honestly just buys towards this one retesting around last week's low and probably bouncing there um but yeah so far so good all right cool let me scroll up to the top of these chatties and we shall get through things together today i'll actually just call out this first one right here from rob willich with the big super chat he says with your option strategy say bitcoin goes over six six thousand bucks do you cover at 66 or a little before do you buy double what you need to cover whoa no no no whoa no no uh no no no okay so um so the way that i'm handling this one uh i explained this when i first took the trade but um the way that i'm handling this this one is i'm looking at what would be effectively the last uh what i refer to as last trending lower high this is a concept that we cover in the ta 101 program there's a link description below for that it's all free it's i won't go through it right now but those are basically the more important pivots and also you can see the price section pivots uh indicator right here marking off this pivot as a significant one so i will cover half if bitcoin closes above this trending lower high which is 65 369 so i will buy 10 bitcoins uh above there the other 10 i will buy if bitcoin reclaims the previous high to that right here which would actually still give me a bit of a buffer at 65 714 i'll still do this on a closing base so it's possible that bitcoin close higher than that maybe closer to 66 maybe even above 66 but i'll still cover somewhere around there or or on a pullback to 66 um uh so yeah no i will not buy double the position because one uh that's an insane amount that's going to cost an insane amount of uh of margin so that's that would be reason number one and then of course the other reason is uh is that's just uh that's all that's a lot of deltas to the upside that i would not be i mean 40 bitcoin long would be a big one for me i'm not crypto over here man i'm a little more humble okay um but look uh i wouldn't if i had the equity i probably wouldn't hate it that much i suppose uh but ultimately the big breakout the big breakout for bitcoin is still more or less the same it is this magical line oh do i have it on this chart yeah it's this magical line right here governing the highs for the past uh for the past few months actually going all the way back to june uh you can see bitcoin trading up to this exact number and more or less uh fading from there and so if we actually chart this one out a little bit better than what i've done thus far it looks something like this as like a topping zone right there um my my personal bias that bitcoin gets back around that region it's very likely going to break because you would have a higher low plus same highs the bias would be on an upside breakout to me does it pull back first and then try the breakout or to just break out from there that's a question that only god can answer i guess i do not know that my crystal ball is unfortunately broken um other than that though man um yeah it's just you know i i i certainly like taking positions around those pivots because covering them becomes a lot more easy in the sense that you don't have to worry about like i said things kind of dancing around and it's like oh is it going to actually fall through or oh no it fell back that's where a lot of people get into issues with these sort of things um and honestly like the smallest amount of ta know-how can drastically help with with you know getting that right or better um anyways let's actually do this properly let's do it right there okay cool all right let me scroll up to smith grind 52 69 says salt on six month uh six month long chart and the view held by some that bitcoin has broken it's a long-standing trendline support uh since 2010 oh i i don't care about any of that stuff um i can like you're you're i mean you're asking me for something that i just i don't really care about uh so like i'm not gonna have like a strong opinion but you know the support line since 2010 well let's even let's just validate that that's even like a real thing because right here i don't i don't even see that on the log chart maybe they're doing on like a linear chart uh so let's see what that would look like um has bitcoin broken its support i don't know um oh god it's just annoying annoying uh 2010 brings us all the way you know that's even 2015. i'm gonna say no and i don't like i could not care less about that i'm i'm i'm not saying that these people are are absolutely 100 wrong but uh i don't see any signal here on the chart either which way um the only signal that i do see on this chart is actually bearish to be fair and this is probably the most compelling signal for me to say bitcoin is not going up it's going down the lows are not in uh it's the only signal that really really really really truly makes me consider it and it's once going to come in off the back of caretakers rsi you got bearish divergence on the last few macro eyes and three drives of that almost always is going to get you down to the yellow 21 ema the question is here do you have enough history to really make this chart make sense and i there's there's a very compelling case for that it's it's it's certainly not obvious that it is not um and that 21 ema is where it's 43 and a half thousand bucks so that certainly is possible um yeah i reserve the right to be phenomenally catastrophically wrong um as always but uh but yeah still i like the setup here for a low more than not if that plays out so be it i will buy on the way down um oh also while we're here on the weekly time frame i should acknowledge that the weekly time frame gonna have a chance to not just reclaim the white 200 simple moving average but also the red 5 ema um at the end of today three hours 54 minutes and 14 seconds and counting if it just remains i mean especially above here but even above uh 64 300 it will do such things as well on cme um right now trading at 64 9 50. long day left to go obviously uh anyways one moment oh and then also sorry i did not answer your full question rob will itch do you cover using futures or spot either is fine man either is fine um futures is generally going to be preferable just because it's i mean you know you don't need to uh you don't need to keep that amount of corns on the account to you know to cover yourself um you know again when when you're dealing with bigger numbers but uh spot is fine too amount it's completely fine just comes down to your equity requirement or sorry your margin requirements and whatnot and what you can more or less swing i i really don't like putting pressure on myself with like significant amounts of leverage and i consider significant amounts of leverage at like 5x or more um i like to be around two to three x if anything um so yeah uh do you think we maybe test around 63 like uh tomorrow intraday basically test around six if bitcoin closes below the revenue ribbons mid bands um again 64 566 i do think you probably got to run towards 63 yeah um i i think that that'd probably also bounce there as well though um over the weekends arms private says do you think bitcoin bounce or continuation more of next week thing um probably reaching 70 000 with the stop at six i don't know about timing of it um if bitcoin is going to really move to the upside here what i expect it to happen in the next week i would say the next two weeks spread from today so between now and let me just look at my calendar between now and the 21st is when i'd be expecting that to happen i guess but timing these sort of things never my speciality and um difficult to do regardless so yeah