The Stock Market Is Already Pricing In A Democratic Sweep

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: if the democrats sweep what happens i think the first two things that we have been seeing already in the markets is that healthcare stocks could rise defense stocks as well could fall maybe you see a rise in clean energy stocks maybe there is a slowdown in the ai boom maybe it could be the democrats are going to get a bit more stringent on data centers that could be one of the directions they go so i think those are some of the things that we might see but again the fact that we're already beginning to see it in the stock market is indication further that investors really believe that come tuesday democrats are going to win this thing what do you think i think it's already been [00:00:35] Speaker 2: priced in today's number 73 that's the percentage of u.s adults who have a favorable view of the national park service making it the most favorable federal agency in america and true story i went to a national park recently and i bitched about it the whole time and soon after i was cancelled for making anti-yo semitic remarks uh how are you doing i see you're wearing your virginia shirt i am i went to the football game last weekend uh parents weekend i think we talked about it i'm super excited um my son's thriving and it's like a huge source of joy for me you always worry there's always like uh there's non-zero probability your kid's gonna head off to college and like not like it and then [00:01:26] Speaker 1: the whole house freaks out is he about the frat life is that is that is that calling him or no i think [00:01:32] Speaker 2: he's pretty social but i don't know if he's what i'd call a big partier but he likes you know he likes being social and he's not like his dad who's trying to like fill a hole that can never be filled and and wallpaper over depression and anger with substances um well that's good that's great speaking of which halloween how's your halloween going this will be out just after halloween but uh it's gonna be good let's hope i'm still around this is we are one night into halloween and i am [00:02:02] Speaker 1: already hurting yeah wow i've actually i've got five friends from london who are who are visiting for the weekend so i've got to go take them out have a good time oh wow what are you gonna do with them we're gonna go we're gonna have dinner and then we're gonna go to off to one of my friends whose uh party is having a big halloween party it's gonna go all night um so we'll do that and then i think they want to do like a pub crawl on saturday which i'm probably not going to join them for because it sounds terrible um and and then i'm heading off to london to join the mooch and caddy k for midterm elections for the for their live stream for the rest of the politics so i leave on saturday night which is a shame i'm still stuck on the notion that you have [00:02:45] Speaker 2: five friends um i kind of had this sneaky suspicion that you're the vivek ramaswani of whatever high school you went to like super smart and everyone hates you is that not right is that not accurate wow is that not accurate is that unfair maybe we'll take a poll see what they think that's gonna [00:03:04] Speaker 1: be great you're gonna show them a great time i hope so i think we're gonna have a good time more importantly what are you going as it's always it's always an important question oh god i had real [00:03:12] Speaker 2: trouble with the costume last night i got a great costume larry david it looked impeccable it was hilarious do you have like the hair are you doing something with hair or no yeah i had the wig i had the glasses i had the khakis i looked exactly like derrick david it was genius and i'm like i just can't do this it makes me even more unfuckable than i am anyways i just can't do this and i'm just too vain uh and so then i put on darth vader and it was like this blousey thing and i looked like delta burke from designing women i just looked ridiculous and then oh i i was really excited about this amazing spider-man outfit and i've been working out and i want to show off my body and that thing was too tight i guess i've been gaining weight and not like that i'm like anyway so zippers were flying and buttons were flying sounds quite stressful i'm glad you recognize that so i did what i always did i that i've done the last that i did last halloween i put on my i put on my deadpool outfit huge crowd pleaser except young people keep saying oh my god i love iron man and i want to choke them i'm like i am not iron man god anyways so you're gonna go with deadpool then that's the plan i did last night i might try the larry david again tonight if i'm a little bit more secure and in touch with my like just decide it's like it's gonna be a hit and then you can take [00:04:36] Speaker 1: it off at some point in the night but you start out crowd pleaser you're the funniest guy in the room everyone loves it and then you can sort of take it off and be like okay i'm normal now the key [00:04:45] Speaker 2: i think if i'm wearing the larry david outfit is to do what i did last weekend at uva when somehow i ended up renting a white minivan and that is as you're driving you just got to go i like me i like me i feel good about me by the way minivan they're incredible i totally see why they sell so well they're incredible they're so easy to get in and out of and they got that out of my door thing and a ton of luggage i don't know i'm thinking about a minivan i'm gonna be tony montana really i like it is your is your girlfriend going as michelle pfeiffer correct wow that's a good one that'll be good [00:05:20] Speaker 1: are we good i have a wig i need to get myself like a cigar or something i tried to order like a toy gun no no no i guess it's illegal amazon amazon is not happy with that so we won't do that um but [00:05:36] Speaker 2: yeah we'll see i'll send you a photo right should we bust into the show let's do it and by the way if [00:05:41] Speaker 1: you like the show please be sure to hit follow wherever you're listening or subscribe to us on youtube and hit the bell icon to get all of our latest episodes thank you very much september's personal consumption expenditures report showed inflation continuing to climb both headline and core pce hit their highest annual rates since may with headline inflation rising 3.6 year over year that data came in just a day after the fed decided to hold rates steady nonetheless two officials dissented in favor of a quarter point hike chair wash also noted that financial and credit conditions have tightened for some businesses and households so inflation remains a persistent problem and the trump administration has faced plenty of blame for the state of the economy but at the midterms tomorrow we will get a better sense of how americans really feel about this administration and how they have handled things so scott inflation keeps going up not really any surprises pce rose to 3.6 uh gas prices continue to go up diesel prices are up 77 year over year real wages fell 0.7 in september that was the sixth straight month of declining earnings um not great and on tuesday i think it's going to be a referendum on those numbers how how upset people really are um what are your expectations uh going into tuesday well [00:07:09] Speaker 2: that's the correct question but what's weird is it feels like the mother of all bad things and all the moons are lining up against uh republicans and four democrats and that is according to the washington post six and ten families can't afford the basic costs of living in the battleground districts so the place that the president is or the current policies seem to be having the most damage are in swing states that are in play the share of households that could not cover the basics rose by 2.1 percentage points in republican held districts and 1.7 in democratic held ones in the past three years rents and republican held battlegrounds have risen nine percent compared to four percent in democratic held ones so it it just feels as if inflation is not only peaking at the exact wrong moment or not inflation is peaking but the the the people feeling of the impact or the negative sentiment on inflation but it's especially bad in close uh races or in toss-up districts calcio puts the odds of a blue wave as defined by democrats win at least 218 house seats and at least 49 senate seats in the november midterms at 82 percent what was even interesting is there's now a technical term for tsunami and that is democrats get both the house and the senate and that's at about somewhere between i saw in calcio between now 65 and 67 percent so there's a two and three chance now that there's a quote-unquote tsunami for democrats and then they have a new category called super tsunami where they get 54 seats in the senate and a massive pickup in in the house i had on prop g nate silver and he pointed that when democrats last got a bunch of seats mid-cycle 2018 it was d plus seven now d is polling plus nine typically as you get closer whoever is down closes in other words it tightens what's unusual it's so far and the polls might be off so far it looks like it's not tightening it's actually the democrats are expanding uh their lead and let's talk about voters in rural parts of america six and ten rural voters disapprove of how trump is handling the economy the average republican constituent drives 26 more miles than a democratic constituent so they're feeling the pain of higher gas prices so this is just uh it's just it's like the the sum of all fears for the republican party i don't see any i don't see any sort of bright spots right now do you have any thoughts on this i'm in total agreement i mean you look back to the [00:09:50] Speaker 1: beginning of the year if you were to say that the democrats were going to take the house and the senate at the midterms people would say you were nuts and and you can look at the the the calci data on that where it was i think it's doubled uh over the course of the year um so there has been a massive sea change and it's obvious what the problem is it's inflation um and people know how tariffs affected inflation we saw that immediately and then he doubled down on higher prices with the war in iran and so when you look at trump's approval rating you know yes it is hitting all-time lows but the the topics on which he is most underwater are the economy and also inflation and i just think that this is such a unique situation such a unique moment because usually when when when an economy is struggling or when you're seeing inflation you're seeing higher prices usually it's a little bit of a blame game on like who's responsible and and it's very difficult to pin down who is actually at fault because economics is complicated and it's nuanced and there are multiple factors you can never really pin anything down but that's not the case this time around at all like we know exactly who's responsible we know exactly what caused this it's trump it's his tariffs and his war in iran and everyone knows this usually there's debate but literally everyone on both sides understands what the problem is and i think your point is an important one which is the people who are getting most screwed by his decisions are his base it's the people who have historically supported him it's the farmers who have to deal with diesel prices being up nearly 80 percent over the past year which of course is a necessary input for fertilizer and therefore for growing crops which is why farmers are struggling right now it's as you say the rural voters who are the frequent drivers you point out how much more uh those those those voters drive compared to uh democratic districts and gas prices are up 40 percent and then i think the other one is is the real crucial demographic which was so important in 2024 which is young men who have seen their wealth uh fall over the past four or so years by about 23 percent and of course the boomers have seen their wealth rise by about 37 percent and this is going to be a big problem because 55 of young men voted for trump in 2024 and now the polls are saying that actually this time around it's going to be 26 percent so all of the key demos have gotten screwed and usually like i say this all the time because i think that trump really really has screwed over the middle class and screwed over poor people um unlike any other president at least in recent memory but a lot of people say well they don't understand that like the american people try getting the american people to like understand the facts but this time i think they do because the facts are so obvious it's so clear what went wrong here so i'm i'm with you i i think it's a sweep um i think the democrats take the house i mean certainly take the house question is will they take the senate i think they will um and we can go into some of the state level data here because that's what's going to matter here it's going to be the it's going to basically rest on a few swing states like maine like uh texas uh michigan those those are going to be the important states um but i i think the democrats crush it in all of those states because again as you say they're getting hit the hardest yeah when you see [00:13:42] Speaker 2: trump campaigning in kansas or in south carolina that's not the map is tilting the map is imploding and they're pulling money out of what usually are battleground states because they've just given up on them what's interesting and you touched on this it's really fascinating to see which cohorts pivot from one party to the other in between elections or in consequential elections or sequential elections and one of the biggest pivots from blue to red in 2024 was was young people yeah and now people ages 18 to 29 get this in 2024 46 percent identified as democrats 47 republicans which shocks me 18 to 29 the majority in 2024 or more identified as republican today it's democrats or 54 percent of 18 to 29 year olds people your age identify with democrats and 38 republican it's i love this we're now it feels like the majority of the pollsters are saying it's a toss-up between a tsunami and a super tsunami and fox news even just flipped south carolina from likely republican to toss up and it's like nothing indicates insecurity like a company or an organization that has a vested interest in things going the other way covering its ass by saying oh this might go blue so this is i mean i'm i'm still holding my breath waiting for what he's going to try and do next whether it's i don't know offer people a million dollars if the republicans hold on to the senate i'll be curious what he tries to come up with but this feels and again what's interesting is a lot of the voting i wonder what it is i think it's about a third the voting's already been decided people like i've already have you already voted i've already voted i'm going to do [00:15:36] Speaker 1: it after this vivek [00:15:40] Speaker 2: that's my new nickname for you vivek oh my god we're getting comments for you all right philip because folks what is the like is there a non-zero probability that ed was the vivek ramaswamy of his junior class in high school what i i think there's a non-zero probability here i just i'm i'm putting it out there anyways no no blue tsunami [00:16:07] Speaker 1: boonami tsunami we're gone let's get this done i mean just looking at some of these states and and how their economies have been specifically affected like i think maine is probably the most interesting because you would have expected and the prediction markets did expect uh that that it would it would be red um but you've got troy jackson the senate candidate um who's democrat at 61 right now in calci and you just look at the way maine's economy works and what its strengths are and what its weaknesses are and it all makes sense like for for one they rely on heating oil to heat up their homes more than any other state it's like 50 of their homes is fuel oil heating oil and the cost of that has gone up 83 percent in the past year so you're immediately that's that's half of of the state is watching their energy prices just explode as a result a direct result of trump's policies then you have the canada tariffs as well which is also an issue because maine's sends 40 of its exports to canada and so as soon as the canada trade war uh breaks out suddenly you're putting a huge dampener on maine's economy plus they also have this giant logging industry which is a huge part of their economy and then trump puts 50 percent tariffs on all of the logging equipment and all of the wood products which just decimates uh the foresting industry in maine like it's a perfect encapsulation of this is a state that wants to love trump that wants to like him that that identifies with the ethos and the culture of the republican party but he alone has been so economically devastating to to to thousands of people across the state to the point where i i don't know i mean i don't know if they're going to swing blue but they're probably not going to show up they're probably not going to show up to the polls i mean if they if they're going to say anything about how gigantic of a disaster the past two years have been in their own lives this is their moment to say it so i i do think that that is going to be likely i think the same we see very similar dynamics in wisconsin texas iowa where as you say you know one in five uh iowans is employed by the agriculture industry which has also gotten hit really really hard by the increasing oil prices so it just doesn't look good for the republicans in any of these key swing states i think the next question is like what are the market implications of various outcomes like if the democrats sweep what happens i think the first two things that we have been seeing already in the markets is that healthcare stocks could rise because you might see that a lot of these medicaid cuts will be reversed but again that's already seemingly getting priced in right now because the healthcare sector is up more than nine percent over the past three months defense stocks as well could fall again that also happened over the summer maybe you see a rise in clean energy stocks maybe there is a slowdown in the ai boom maybe it could be the democrats are going to get a bit more stringent on data centers that could be one of the directions they go so i think those are some of the things that we might see but again the fact that we're already beginning to see it in the stock market is indication further that investors really believe that come tuesday democrats are going to win this thing what do you think i think it's already been [00:19:39] Speaker 2: priced in um and i think if you look at the markets so first off the polls like maine in maine the polls don't seem to matter so we don't know what's going to happen to me but in places like south carolina that i think the last republican or the last democrat today sent to washington resigned in 2002 but darlene graham is now at 78 percent and um uh what is her name her name is oh annie andrews is now at 28 she was at 10 just a couple months ago and she's gaining right now so it's a sweep is the base case right so the most exposed to getting hurt are probably pharma with undisclosed pricing deals with the white house um the company has assigned administration pricing uh agreements and house democrats have floated the idea if they have the power of if they now run these committees of subpoenaing drug makers for the terms of those deals i think it's going to hurt the oil majors democrats are trying are tying high energy prices to broader cost pressures and plan oversight of corporate pricing and market concentration i think it's oil is going to come down which is going to hurt them more um and there's already investigations over energy exploration in venezuela which matters most for a company like chevron i think defense contractors get hurt maybe the ai tech and data center build out there'll probably be more pauses if you will private equity and single family rent rental owners um the private equity is probably going to face more uh scrutiny and companies close to the administration um ongoing democratic investigations and some of his cronies that he's been carving up tick tock and giving giving to drug pricing deals tariff refunds um um you know a senate majority adds a second chamber issuing subpoenas some of the beneficiaries um the tariff exposed retailers if we roll back the tariffs and there's more certainty around the tariffs going away are being reduced folks like walmart target nike best buy i think actually benefit of the democrats sweep and then aca marketplace insurers like centine oscar molina making health subsidies permanent would just be good for those guys so some winners and some losers i just the question is has it already been priced in [00:22:12] Speaker 1: i think sports betting companies are also very worried about this uh and the number that i have to back that up is the fact they spent 72 million dollars on this midterm election cycle draft kings spent 34 million fan duel spent 27 million um you have to just think that these guys are desperate for the democrats not to get in there and start regulating this gambling stuff but the key word there is spend [00:22:38] Speaker 2: what's so staggering about this race obviously the outcome is going to be the most interesting thing but post-election i think what we're really going to there's going to be a couple big stories but one of them is going to be that we have now spent more on the senate race this off-cycle midterm senate race than we've spent on the presidential election in terms of money spent so this isn't even the tail wagging the dog this is a tail is wagging the dog so furiously it's got its own weather system i mean and and when you think about just how insane it is i think about 800 million dollars is going to go into the senate race in texas 800 million dollars and 330 of it or 370 of it is coming from one man and i think you know generally speaking i think november 4th marks a lot of things it marks a lame duck president but i also think it kicks off a new era in america where we spent the last 40 years talking about how do you get wealthy and we're going to spend the next 10 years with a lot more discussion around what are the obligations of wealth and when one man you you know numbers but you can't really grasp the numbers so elon musk has put call it 400 million dollars into the texas race 366 366 is the number i would even think at some point the supreme court is going to go jesus this is out of control we have to do something about this by the way when you're with katie k and the mooch my guess is that'll be topics one two and three is campaign finance reform that is i was with senator mark kelly in arizona and i asked him what is the first thing he would do if elected president and a lot of them are saying that [00:24:12] Speaker 1: the number one issue is campaign finance reform it's ridiculous 366 million dollars he has now spent elon has now spent more on this cycle than george soros has spent his entire life so it's gotten completely out of control um and and you mentioned like the next i mean we talked a lot about how to build wealth and and and the next sort of era of politics and and policy is going to be about how how to keep it if you're already a billionaire i mean one of the big things to watch out for in this election will be prop 40 in california and talk about spending a lot of money on politics sergey brin has spent 102 million dollars to fight prop 40 which is the wealth tax um so i mean this this these midterms are weirdly important on so many different levels and you you can see it in the amounts that people are spending especially the amounts that billionaires are spending they are very very worried about how uh how this election might turn out we'll be right back after the break and if you're enjoying the show send it to a friend and please follow us on youtube spotify or wherever you get your podcasts [00:25:37] Speaker 2: support for the show comes from framer framer is the ai website builder that helps creators teams and businesses ship production ready sites faster than ever while getting every detail right prompt inspect edit and publish in one place at a whole new pace agents and humans work in tandem agents bring speed and scale while people bring taste judgment and control agents solve the gap between ai generated ideas and production ready website work the agent works in the same place where the real site is designed managed reviewed and published it lands on the canvas stays editable and can be published when the team is ready here's everything that can happen when your team and agents collaborate you can build custom code components create and manage cms content optimize seo settings audit for issues and ship everything all in one place learn how you can get more out of your site from a framer specialist or get started building for free today at framer.com slash markets for 30 percent off of framer pro annual plan that's framer.com slash markets rules and restrictions may apply support for the show comes from upwork you've built every part of your business yourself from the ground up that also means your operation might still be running on various spreadsheets that were definitely thrown together by an amateur while there's nothing wrong with doing it all yourself eventually there will come a time where you'll need to hire highly skilled freelancers and you'll need to hire them quickly upwork gives your business fast access to over 170 000 freelancers all with deep expertise with their help you can fill critical skill gaps launch projects faster and scale support up or down without committing to a full-time headcount you can find experts in everything from software development and ai implementation to marketing design and business operations browse profiles review past work and get help scoping the role there's also business plus which lets you access the top one percent of talent on upwork and when it comes to operational stuff such as contracts and payments upwork takes care of it all visit upwork.com right now and post your job for free that's upwork.com to connect with top talent ready to help your business grow that's upwork.com upwork.com [00:27:45] Speaker 1: we're back with prof g markets last week's earnings reports from microsoft and google gave investors a look at how two of the biggest players in big tech are performing and the market's reaction could not have been more different microsoft shares jumped as much as five percent after the company beat expectations with revenue up 19 year over year it also disclosed azure revenue in its earnings statement for the first time revealing that its cloud business grew 48 from a year earlier google shares meanwhile dropped more than 13 wiping out 500 billion dollars for its worst market cap loss ever that pain came despite reporting 25 revenue growth in the third quarter investors were disappointed by weaker than expected search and advertising revenue and negative free cash flow uh scott really interesting week for the hyperscalers because we have the anthropic s1 which came out which has polarized a lot of people as to whether that was great or whether that was bad or something in the middle but then also we have these big tech earnings coming out microsoft was great investors were very happy about it google's on the surface like not terrible i thought at least from a revenue perspective but investors were very very freaked out about this idea that search revenue growth is beginning to decline and all of the fears that we that we were hearing about i would say two years ago basically when chat gpt was starting to to gain steam um suddenly those fears have come back where investors are saying oh my gosh ai is going to kill google search that plus the fact that free cash flow is negative and they're plowing more and more money into the ai data center something we're also seeing from meta something we're also seeing from amazon um what do you make of of this week in big tech land i thought it was pretty shocking and it's [00:29:40] Speaker 2: sort of a tale of two cities it's the same ai arms race but entirely opposite verdicts microsoft uh was up five percent on cash flow discipline and alphabet down double digits on cash burn and the way i would describe it is both companies had amazing um year on year revenue growth and really outstanding businesses but i think it's two things that punished microsoft was able to thread the needle here and that as i said we're gonna surprise to the upside on the top line and the bottom line and what i think really excited people is their capex looked fairly disciplined now granted it's still unbelievable it's still out of control but it looks fairly disciplined compared to the alternatives yeah and compared to alphabet and when alphabet's executive admits on the earnings call that ai mode generates fewer ads it's like the company confessing its flagship product cannibalizes its core business so ai is a profit center that needs to be managed well for microsoft in terms of capex ai needs to be a profit center for alphabet that needs to be managed well it doesn't look like the capex was managed as as in its disciplined fashion in addition ai is an existential threat to alphabet because the world's most profitable largest toll booth in history search is it appears like it's kind of under attack i don't know about you but i think there's probably a lot of analysts listening and hearing seeing hearing the numbers they see the capex of a company growing its ai business but what they don't see or what they also see is that ai is an existential threat to their ability to generate the cash flow they need for capex for the arms race and the anecdotal evidence i don't know if you find this i am now doing basic search on on claude and at some point that's just going to show up in the in the numbers but my what microsoft data was unbelievable microsoft renovated with cash on hand and alphabet appears to be taking out second mortgages you know for the same renovation uh which is going to result in kind of a different call from the bank if you will so really two divergent results here and the largest market cap erosion single day market cap erosion in the history of the company that's a big deal i'm less [00:32:00] Speaker 1: worried about the search revenue because i see the fact that it's growing and it grew less than investors had expected and i think that the reason there was such an allergic reaction on that front is that this is the boogeyman for the markets this is the thing that they're obsessed with will chat gpt kill google and we saw them have a premature reaction several years ago which is when we went in and said this thing's gotten over punished and and so they've been they've just their antennae are up on this big question and so as soon as they see even an inkling of a sign that maybe something bad is happening suddenly they freak out and they panic about the whole situation for me i'd want to see i would want to see more concrete evidence that that's actually happening like i'd want to see that their their search revenue flatline or even decline that's something that would make me more confident in this idea that chat gpt is going to to to eat google's lunch but then again at the same time google also has gemini and so i i think they've actually kept up uh on on this on this ai race quite well but i do think that the real problem in my view is that negative free cash flow and to be clear google is not alone there because we also know that oracle's free cash flow is negative metas free cash flow is negative now amazon's free cash flow is negative now all of the hyperscalers have now entered into negative free cash flow because of how much money they're spending on the data centers it's it's nearly 700 billion dollars on capex in the past 12 months that's up nearly 90 from a year ago the only hyperscaler with positive free cash flow is microsoft which is great but it still came down 27 so the thing that worries me is the fact that these businesses can no longer use their profits to finance their goals which is in this case to build data centers and build the ai revolution and so you think about okay well what can they do then if the most profitable companies in the world can't even use their profits to do whatever it is that they want to do well then you'd say okay they can go to the cash on their balance sheet and that's what a lot of people have pointed out and to be fair these guys have a lot of cash on hand if you look at their cash and cash equivalents and their short-term investments you've got amazon with more than 120 billion dollars you got google with more than 250 billion dollars if you add all the hyperscalers together it's nearly 600 billion dollars which is great but then you look at how much capex is going to rise next year and the year after that and if you add it all up among the hyperscalers the five of them oracle microsoft meta amazon google over the next two years it's estimated to be more than two trillion dollars so basically what you have is is is like a one and a half trillion dollar gap between how much money they're going to spend and how much money they actually have because remember they can't use the profits anymore because or the cash flows because those cash flows are negative so they have to get the money from somewhere else and so then you think okay where is that money going to come from and the answer is they have to go to the capital markets and raise money and that's why i was really like it felt really powerful that literally the day after microsoft reports their earnings they also announce a 25 billion dollar uh bond sale and that's just a week after meta said we're going to go raise 95 billion dollars in the equity markets so what it was so great about these companies is how independent they were for so long they were so strong so profitable they could do whatever they want who gives a about the market conditions they don't need our money but that has now completely changed they need money from the capital markets they need money from us the investors and if we decide that we don't want to give them that money then they're screwed they're just in a systemically more vulnerable position and that to me is the real shift in what's happened here for big tech they used to be these dependent or excuse me independent companies do whatever they want but now they have to go out there and they have to please investors and they have to convince them don't worry give us the money we'll pay it back we can we can raise it through the bonds we can raise it through the equity but just play the game with us they're dependent on the capital markets now i think [00:36:36] Speaker 2: of a historical analogy here around the ai arms race is impacting everyone and i think of so basically we were in an arms race an actual arms race with the soviet union and we had the economy and the growth in the capital to win and we basically the soviet union imploded on itself because it couldn't keep up with this type of military or defense mending and poor leadership and an autocracy etc and it collapsed on itself and that resulted in kind of a 40-year run as the world you know of hegemony where basically the us was the only game in town everyone is in an arms race right now and yeah the companies are starting to say all right who who's going to survive who has the underlying capital survive now to your earlier point about alphabet every time in alphabet's history you've had this sort of check back it's been a buying opportunity and kind of pregnant with your comments is a really interesting question and that is is this a buying opportunity because if you look at alphabets pe right now it's 14.6 versus the s p at 19.5 take your average s p company caterpillar png these are great companies months whatever it is you know they're not alphabet youtube is on fire google search every time we keep you know rumors of its death have always been greatly exaggerated i don't know what it was up it's always up double digits they have a booming cloud business they have if there's an agentic layer that emerges they have relationships with millions of businesses and billions of consumers to start bridging the gap and start eating open ai or anthropics launch and it's trading at a lower p multiple than your average s p company and obviously when you look at how robust this business is how diversified it is how well run it is the concentration of iq there i don't know this to me feels like a buying [00:38:39] Speaker 1: opportunity your thoughts one thing that i would just point out about the pe is that now that now that alphabet has invested all this money in anthropic those mock-ups on its on its private stakes are being reflected in their income so you have to take those pe's with a grain of salt but still it has it i mean i after the adjustment my expectation is that it would be maybe like in line with with the s p which still isn't expensive so i think that i'm not fully sold i'd want to look more into into google as a buying opportunity at these prices but i i don't think it's a sell like i i don't think that the way that the the market is treating it especially when it comes to the search revenue is necessarily warranted but like you make a important point about big tech stocks and the hyperscalers right now which is like these stocks despite being systemic to the economy have been unbelievably volatile this year and you know as i've told you before as we've talked about on on the show like i bought meta this year and i bought microsoft this year and both of those uh investments have done extremely well but if you were to look at those stocks on over the past year they look kind of lackluster and it's because they've been going up and down so erratically throughout the course of the year because the reality is that there is so much uncertainty when it comes to tech right now because of the amount that they're spending on the ai data centers that like investors are completely polarized as to what the actual reality is and that wasn't the case for a very long time it used to be that you could have a pretty strong understanding of what these businesses would look like this year and the next year and even five years out and that's what wall street loved about it is it was so reliable it was so dependable you knew exactly what the businesses are but those days are over and what that means now is that the most valuable companies in the world are incredibly volatile which means that if you are invested heavily in these companies which you are because everyone is because they're systemic to to the s p you're riding out quite a lot of volatility specifically in those names but it also means that if you want to be a bit of a trader and get out there and get active uh and start doing some stock picking there are some serious opportunities like you can go in and buy these dips and you can get paid really handsomely for doing so and that which is exactly what happened for me with those two names met and microsoft could be i mean met is down this week investors are very worried about that equity sale which i think is completely reasonable the fact that they need to keep on raising more money is concerning uh you would think that because they're the most pro one of the most profitable businesses ever they don't have to do that but they do now but these are really these are jumpy names investors do not feel confident there is very very low levels of conviction and when that happens that usually means that there is both great opportunity to lose a lot of money but also to make a lot of money too so i think it's a good time to be a stock picker of tech names is what i would say or at least it's a fun time to be a stock picker [00:42:05] Speaker 2: i've spent a lot of time on boards and basically you kind of have two jobs on a board i mean three if you're on the audit committee just make sure there's not fraud so let's assume you're able to do that but the two primary roles of a director are one if and when to sell the company but most importantly your job is to make sure you have the right guy or gal and i always said there's always two board meetings there's the actual board meeting and then there's a board meeting in the parking lot when you're worried about the ceo and the two or three most powerful people on the board which is usually the largest shareholder and two voices that everyone kind of nods because they've been on the board or they're very smart and those people meet on the parking lot and say i'm worried about bob and should we be talking about if bob is the right guy and if we need to make a change and i've spent a lot of time trying to suss out what are the attributes and behaviors of great ceos and one of the most underrated attributes and i think core to a great ceo and a great leadership team is the following it's not only what they decide to do it's what they decide not to do do they have the discipline to say this is a great idea it's a great market it's not the right idea the right market for us at this moment and of the mag 7 to this point of the mag 7 who has decided not to engage in the ai arms race apple and who has the strongest year-to-date stock performance i think it's apple ding ding ding ding apple has significantly outperformed the other six that are either the arms race or engaging in the arms race and apple does not get enough credit they're constantly second guest why don't you have a cheaper computer why aren't you in ai why aren't you in search they have more discipline around what not to do than any company of that size they didn't they put one chip down on vr i think they spent a billion dollars on it meta spent 60 on it they are better at saying no they pulled the plug on the car i wanted them to have the car i'm like you gotta grow do the car and they're like you know what this isn't working out we don't like the numbers here we don't like the ship pull kill it the only mag 7 company that has not decided to play in traffic in the ai arms race is significantly outperforming the others who are in this ai arms race in any other world i would be [00:44:28] Speaker 1: instinctively agreeing with you on this because i'm such a sucker for discipline uh you know risk management but i i still think they've got this one wrong you think staying out of this race was a bad idea for apple i do because and as i've said about apple then then what what are you pursuing instead that's what i want to see from that company how is it that you're going because to be clear they've been they've been very handsomely rewarded for their decision not to go into this which and i like that investors are rewarding them for that i like that investors are saying like you know let's let's not all become like too swept up in the hype and and too deluded about this ai future let's be reasonable and investors are rewarding them for that but the thing that i want to see from apple is like okay you're not taking that money to do the ai thing what are you doing instead and when it was the headset i'm like that's a dud which it was and the next thing appears to be the iphone duo and i don't know if you've seen some of these reports but those duos are breaking left and right and not just because people are doing these breaking tests but like a lot of customers are reporting trying to open up that iphone duo and the screen just immediately cracks and they go to the apple store and they say hey can you replace this and apple says sorry no because our inventory currently is zero so i'd want to see apple saying here's what we're going to do instead but to me i don't see that vision from them maybe john turnus will turn it around and and he'll come up with an amazing product and to be clear he hasn't had nearly enough time to come up with a new strategy but that is what i want to see from apple because i also i mean there's risks in everything there's risks in deciding to do something and also deciding not to do something and i do think that there is some significant downside risk in not participating in ai if ai turns out to be a a huge revolution that creates huge amounts of profits for these companies so you know it's the the futures are so uncertain uh for all of these companies the thing that they have on their side is the fact that each of them have unbelievably good existing businesses they all i mean meta's got the ad business google's got search apple's got the iphone i mean all all of these companies are in a really really strong position and i think if we're trying to pick out like winners versus losers i could see a correction coming i i mean i just don't see how the boom and bust cycle doesn't play out as it always does in this case but none of those companies are going to go bankrupt they're not going to go bust they're going to have their multiples reduced probably i don't think it'll be dramatic but i think i think it'll happen the people who are going to get screwed are the are the companies whose only business is data centers and ai i.e the neoclouds and i think we're already starting to see that like if there's an ai bubble it's already popping for core weave for iron for nebius for all of these random data center names that people only started to to hear about over the past one two or three years and we're already seeing that in the credit default swaps which are skyrocketing uh the stock prices which are plummeting um so i mean i think those names are going to get going to get caught especially as they become more and more reliant on sentiment in the capital markets because of their need to raise more capital but it's it's a really interesting time [00:48:03] Speaker 2: to be a tech company if you try to distinguish between the winners and the losers in the markets right now or how the market is behaving in terms of parsing winners from losers it's the d word it's discipline we referenced apple they're like fine have at it guys kill each other we'll come in and we'll be the second mouse or a license we'll pick a preferred ai provider and we'll do what we did with search just get 98 gross margin licensing fee or whatever the other company that's been rewarded lately is is microsoft of the five hyperscalers microsoft is the only one that has remained cash flow positive they're doing it right i think yeah well they've thread the needle right whereas google or alphabet appears to be on the wrong side of the needle but basically the markets have already priced in except an expectation of exceptional growth from these businesses and they're all delivering against that exceptional growth where it's parsing the winners from the losers is does there appear to be an adult with both hands on the capex wheel here or not driving down this highway at all but the two companies right now that the market likes the most are the one that's not playing in traffic it said i'm out and two the other one that appears to it's the only one that's capex was lower than projected right the markets seem to like that right now the markets need to say we need to see the r on the eye here and part of that is not only about top line growth but managing cost discipline [00:49:31] Speaker 1: and i think on this one the markets are right like you know i always love when i think the markets are wrong because it means i can have a very hot contrarian take on things but i think that they're i mean i don't think they're right about apple personally but with microsoft and the way that the things that they're prioritizing about capex and about discipline i think is i think is the right thing to be caring about i think microsoft is a good example of that i think microsoft has done a good job here um in terms of managing playing in the game but also not betting the farm on this game and i think investors are rewarding them for that and i think that's what should be happening um i mean what'll be interesting to see is how they respond to anthropic because jury's still out on that one i want to put [00:50:19] Speaker 2: some numbers the research team put together a great chart and we'll put it up here the average annual infrastructure spending as a percentage of gdp for some other kind of transformative technologies canals were a transformative technology and 0.7 percent of gdp was allocated to those to that innovation of our five-year period on average railroads is the one we always talk about 1870 to 1890 20-year period on average every year 2.2 percent of gdp electrification 20-year period 1905 to 1925 a half a percent of gdp highways from 56 to 73 1.13 telecom and fiber latin for the internet from 1996 to 2003 1.1 percent ai uh so far the ai era so to speak 3.6 percent of gdp so this just feels like big i mean the railroads did transform the world they really did but along the way there was a ton of bankruptcies now the good news is or asking yourself what could go right are we in for a crash or what i'd call a measured decline that gives everyone in other words the v looks like a slope not not a severe down i mean are we starting is some error in a healthy way starting to come out of the bubble a little [00:51:42] Speaker 1: bit as opposed to a pop if you were to look at just the you know extremely levied ai names like if you were looking at the neoclouds like the bubbles popped those names are crashing like the that's what a crash looks like but the difference is that with this ai build out it's not just these new names that are participating in this whole thing it's the big names which might sound like oh my god that's really dangerous but at the same time it's like actually it's less dangerous because those big names already have extremely strong pre-existing businesses so you know we're not seeing this gigantic crash that you might see as people start to get very worried about the bubble because you have this this sort of support mechanism where you've got a giant search business and you've got a giant uh giant ad business i mean it's it's it's an interesting it's an it's the the dynamics are very interesting because it's almost as if there is more downside protection on this boom bust cycle than in previous ones which is less dramatic and exciting and sensational but ultimately better because it means less pain if things go wrong i know i'm going to get a lot of for that for saying that but it is what i believe there are two [00:53:03] Speaker 2: scary things here that the media i think is is mostly missing the first is that so we didn't even mention it the most i thought the most interesting number and what would what would have been the headline number from the microsoft earnings call any guesses what is it we're not even talking about it and it's a staggering number um any guesses compute growth cloud revenue growth i'll give you a hint 60 000. i don't know that's the number of buyouts that people are offering buyouts to yeah i mean this is yeah this is the fear i've never again going back to trying to sound more important than i'm on i've never been on a board where it's like oh our revenues are up 20 percent or 12 percent and we just offered buyouts to 60 000 people you've never heard that before this is this is the frightening part about ai is you can massively grow your top line beats on top and bottom and the ceo says oh and try and reduce our headcount by 60 000 people i mean if you have any doubt that we have become shareholder nation that the only thing that matters is earnings per share and year-to-date stock performance i 30 or 40 years ago it would have been frontline news microsoft to to offer buyouts to 60 000 people nearly a third of the workforce barely even mentioned barely even mentioned the other really frightening thing is i believe nvidia has agreed to purchase or participate in the debt offering of meta so these deals there we go and by the way it's not good some of that money will be used to wait for it be used to buy nvidia chips so nvidia is not only selling the picks and the shovels they're financing the mine and they own the bank that's loaning the money to finance the mine to buy those shovels i mean it is literally the mother of all circular circular deals here and i used to do this in the 90s we all kind of knew each other in the valley and we were we would oftentimes buy each other's products or make small investments in each other's companies you know to try and prop up the whole ecosystem and when you think about how many companies if you did an org chart or a chart depicting where nvidia has invested it feels a lot it feels eerily reminiscent to fdx in their heyday and how sam bankman freed was investing in everything crypto and propping up the entire ecosystem it feels like nvidia is is in terms of financing and related party transactions and circular deals the kind of i would have thought that that would start scaring people 60 000 i think it has [00:56:02] Speaker 1: which is why the multiple has contracted and and and you know that that's why i don't think i can buy nvidia is for that reason like even though the multiples come down don't tell that to josh brown exactly those are fighting words but that's why i can't do it because of that i mean this is just classic bubble behavior and the ftx comparison i think is a good one because what was it that that brought ftx down it was a change in market sentiment as soon as you leave yourself that exposed and then suddenly the music stops that's when the problems start to arise and so you know again it would be different if you were financing all of these operations independently but that's not what's happening they're becoming increasingly dependent on fundraising as you point if meta needs nvidia to go out and buy its equity or buy its debt that tells you something about market sentiment and demand which leaves you a lot more exposed so that yeah that's the problem we'll be right back and for even more markets content sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com support for the show comes from zero it's kind of a foundational idea for this show that it's possible to take complex financial data and explain it in clear simple language that anyone can understand that is also the idea behind zero zero spelled with an x is a simple but powerful platform built for small business owners that makes managing business finances easier from day one it makes accounting payments 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bring reels to apple tv this puts instagram in more direct competition with youtube but there is one key difference unlike youtube instagram won't share its ad revenue with creators so scott this is just fascinating especially for us considering we are a podcast that posts our show to youtube it's a big part of our business met is essentially saying do it on our platform do it on instagram 90 minute videos podcast vlogs interviews all of that all of that kind of media um i don't see a reason why we will not do that this is not a zero-sum game uh our business is built on uh ads selling ads selling impressions the more impressions we can make uh the more influence the more money we make that's the way it works for most media businesses today this to me seems like a good move by meta that will genuinely cause problems for youtube and for every other media company what do you think i think this is big um and [01:00:58] Speaker 2: this is how one small company is thinking about this so the rub on this is they're not sharing any revenue right youtube pays out i think about 50 of its revenue to creators it's worked really well for them thus far i think instagram with their features has not said they're going to share any of the revenue but at the same time if you're profiting media what we're going to do we're going to go hard at this because we can embed ads in our content right we can do host readovers as part of the show and that will i believe be in there and if if we can get another 100 200 300 000 views on instagram features then we can sell that into our advertisers right because so instagram isn't going to run ads and then do a revenue split but i don't see any reason why we wouldn't be able to embed some sort of you know some sort of host readovers the mark zuckerberg is the best thief of ip in history and he's clearly coming for youtube and just to give you a sense of the ecosystem when you're talking about television 49 of it or half of it is streaming cables 19 broadcast is 18 others 14 and then let's break down the streaming ecosystem it used to be youtube low double digits netflix high single digits that delta has broadened dramatically youtube now sits at 16 netflix is at eight disney's at five prime video at four roku interesting three percent which i believe news core just purchased paramount at 2.3 to be at 1.9 peacock plus 1.6 warner brothers discovery this was shocking to me because this includes hbo is at 1.4 it truly is artisanal at this point and i think meta is absolutely coming for that 16 that youtube commands right now and the reason why we'll do it and go hard at it at least initially is that you got to think that meta with three billion users is going to game the algorithm and significantly over reward early adopters of features right yes so true they're gonna all of a sudden you're gonna have ed elson droning on for 70 minutes in your in your and you will see it whether you like it or not right and you're thinking like where are the great dane puppies and where's the where's the woman talking about social justice who also happens to be really hot that's in my feed all of a sudden i'm gonna have adam move over i'm like elson's here i can survive ed for 30 seconds but wait this won't end but my point is we'll go hard at this early to experiment but also you just gotta think they're gonna juice the the first decent content the first 10 000 creators that put up a reasonable 60 minutes of content or repurpose good content matt is gonna matt is gonna like they're gonna they're the drug dealer passing out free crack to third graders right they're gonna say okay uh would you like a little taste of hundreds of thousands of views for the early adopters so as just one business one small media business we're gonna go hard at this i think this is the [01:04:06] Speaker 1: perfect encapsulation of what the problem is for a company like netflix um because it says a lot that we are immediately down to do this it tells you something about the way the media ecosystem works today which is that it's not about contracts we're not inking deals with with netflix or even youtube we're just trying to get our stuff out there wherever there are eyeballs wherever there's attention that's where we're trying to go and and we're not alone in that that is the way most of this works and so to me this is an indictment of the traditional production budget model and the honestly the traditional streaming model and this is this shows you where things are headed which is that it's all going into a user-generated content direction like you've got netflix's production budget of 20 billion dollars compare that to messes production budget of literally zero because it's the users that are making the content and i think that you know that might sound counterintuitive like like why i mean meta doesn't pay its creators that's a striking thing how is it that there is literally a billions of hours of content that is being produced every day on that platform despite the fact that meta isn't paying them the reason that that is happening is because people think of media differently and the reality is people on instagram people on reels people on people people on tiktok too they want to get famous and they want to get followers and they want to get likes and that in and of itself is a market that is an ecosystem that drives more production more user-generated content and it's something that meta has been able to exploit in addition they're basically telling people like us you guys figure out how to make money yourselves we're not going to pay you an ad share ad share program you guys go figure it out figure out your third party agreements you can negotiate your own deals by yourself you guys are adults handle it yourself that's exactly what we are doing is what we've done with our youtube model as well and i think it's what a lot of other creators are going to be doing as well and all of this means that that that viewing time number for netflix specifically which has been falling quite precipitously over the past several years average viewing time per member on netflix has fallen 26 in the past three three years that's going to keep going down and i think it's really really tough considering that netflix stock is already down 44 in the past year we know that they're getting killed by youtube in terms of tv viewing time and i think this really begs a very important question for netflix which is what are you going to do about this what is your plan because you're living in a very very different world from what the world was five years ago you were you used to be competing with hbo max you're competing with meta tick tock youtube this is a very very different media ecosystem and i'm not totally sure what the answer is i i have been noodling on some ideas but you know if you're on the netflix board and you see this headline [01:07:23] Speaker 2: what do you think and what do you do netflix faces an existential crisis of being lumped into media companies that are struggling like disney that pays that gets commands two times sales in the marketplace versus it's at five now and it used to be at eight or ten because it was considered a tech company they have to find either acquire you know initially thought why wouldn't they merge with mbc universal they can go into parks and i thought they don't want to be in the media business they want to be seen as a tech company with a media platform i think it's got to be something around trying to um as you put it start to own or get into the clip economy and that a short form video that plays well to a phone you know my idea was open source kind of tick tock with their 99 long tail content but they're they're in a difficult spot i think that they're basically saying we need better content that we haven't had our k-pop demon hunters i actually think the content's really strong i'm i'm watching east of you nothing it's fantastic they're saying when they when they fired bella bajaria they're saying we have the wrong cook and no one's eating at a buffet and my analogy is i wonder if everyone's gone vegan and that is just fewer and fewer people are willing to sit down i won't watch and i won't invest an hour in anything that doesn't have 90 plus percent on rotten tomatoes i mean the bar is just becoming so high for what you're actually willing to spend that time on also and this is just anecdotal but i think it does show up in the earnings of meta i find that the best use of ai to date that people aren't really talking about is one that's invisible behind the curtain and that is i believe instagram reels literally deploys ai to turn your brain inside out it's as if it knows what i want before i want it and i'm just i can't get over like i felt that way five or seven years ago the first time i was on tick tock i'm like how did it figure out i like great danes like how did it how did it find some weird economist in south africa talking about income inequality that i would be interested in like how did it pick up on this i believe the algorithm everyone said oh tick tock it's about the algo right i believe the in the algorithm now at instagram courtesy of of the capex and ai is dangerously addictive i think it is i think it is so good right now and when they apply that content that competes against youtube wow i just i'm i'm really curious to see how these wars play out but netflix i was actually looking at netflix as a buy because i think the management team is so strong and a built-in user base but they don't want to consolidate with another media company because it just cements them as having the same problems as everybody else they have to serve up a different type of food here they have to get into short form that is really mobile friendly because the other thing that's just hard to ignore is that in that things are going really well in the sense that the the flow of capital has been pretty much one way and that is it's been from a bigger screen to a smaller screen to the smallest screen right in general i know movies will pass 10 billion dollars for the first time fine it's a dead cat bounce movies is a shitty business television still a huge business maybe not growing flat fine whatever any great content on a phone champagne and cocaine right what's interesting is the biggest screen is actually doing really well right now and that is the screen of irl right going out concerts meeting people in real life that's actually picking up which is a really encouraging sign but i just this ecosystem i think that i think that i'm summarizing but i think meta meta doesn't even look at netflix meta is going to go after youtube and in general just what this is showing is that our brains we are evolving a new species of people who just don't have the attention for to justify to create the consumption to justify the cap or the amount of money that's gone into content we were saying this two or three years ago like how can they sustain this investment in content and original content and the answer is they can't so i think it's only a matter of time before netflix one announces you know innovation acquisitions developments of new things that give people a different type of food also i think what's coming they're going to announce they're going to reduce their content budget they just can't they're they're in the arms race and they've they've probably gone out too far 20 billion anyways i don't so the answer is i don't know what they do other than trying to get into short form content and start to cut the content budget you said something which i think is really [01:12:15] Speaker 1: interesting which is like netflix has always wanted to be seen as a tech company and i think they have been successful in presenting themselves that way up until lately where it's become clear that actually no you're basically like very similar to nbc universal very similar to warner brothers discovery disney you're not really a tech company and i think what this comes down to they are at this very important fork in the road which is like what actually are you like what like are you are you a media company or are you a tech company and i think they're struggling because i don't think they know what they are i don't think they've figured that out i think that they're sort of dabbling with this idea of let's get into short form let's get into having clips and being more of a sort of a an aggregator of existing generated content something similar to a youtube but then also they're saying no we're going to also spend 20 billion dollars on protect on production and we're going to have high quality premium content we're going to become the sort of the luxury product of streaming but then also this they're doing the ads as well which was a new introduction a couple years ago so it's it's almost like they haven't figured out what it is that they actually are and it makes me think of aspastor motor and who's like you know you're dealing with a bit of an identity crisis as a company right now and i think for me what do they have to do they have to decide what they are because currently wall street is not buying this this idea that oh we're both at the same time we're kind of interested in tvs but also we're interested in the phones we're interested in everything all together that's not working from from both a cosmetic perspective in terms of the perception but also from a business business perspective so in my view it's like you need to decide i'm honestly don't think that the tech company angle is going to work i think it's going to kind of look like old guy wants to be young like oh we're into the streaming we're like youtube i think i i think that that ship has sailed and it was a mistake they should have kept up like youtube they should have invested heavily but i think they should have done that two or three years ago which is what we were suggesting two or three years ago but i think if they try to enter that game now it's going to be way too expensive way too much competition and it's going to be that they're kind of going to look like the meme like how do you do fellow kids um and it's and it's not going to really work so i'm starting to think maybe they just need to go all out media company brand themselves as luxury premium maybe that boosts the multiple maybe they can charge higher prices we have the greatest content in the world it's a shittier business for sure but it's something that i think they could pull off but again there is an identity crisis for netflix and they have to decide who actually are we do you agree they [01:15:10] Speaker 2: can never be a niche premium provider like hbo they have to be mass but yeah i i i was looking at netflix as a buy i'm now thinking there's more pain there um because i think it's going to be difficult to it's going to be difficult to do any of this as quickly as the market wants they need to [01:15:30] Speaker 1: figure out the story if they figure out their story everyone's going to be ready to to buy but they're like they're in purgatory right now yep agreed let's take a look at the week ahead we'll see earnings from apple palantir amd pfizer novo nordisk uber arm and qualcomm we'll also get the employment report for october at the end of the week but of course the main event will be the midterms scott [01:15:51] Speaker 2: any predictions yeah my prediction is that uh palantir beats and the stock falls um palantir is trading at roughly 50 times sales 50 times forward sales in may uh palantir and nvidia lost 120 million to market cap the day after beating estimates and at that multiple a beat is the minimum anything short of a blowout is a sell on this thing at this at this price i mean essentially palantir is the student who even if they get an a the expectation is that they're supposed to get an a plus uh i just don't think i don't think they can i don't think that the market has become used to such incredible beats for a company trading at a pe of 16 much less a company trading at a forward price sales of 50x in some i think some air is going to come out of palantir uh so the prediction is palantir beats and the stock takes uh a fall okay my prediction is going to bore you but it's that [01:16:55] Speaker 1: the democrats take the house and the senate sweep blow out predicted it earlier in the year but [01:17:00] Speaker 2: doubling down today your lips to god's ears my brother bring on the blue oh my gosh and to think that we don't believe in the gun show just as inaccurate hello ladies daddy's going as deadpool tonight i've decided i've decided looking big looking big i'll give you that it's all the testosterone i'm [01:17:19] Speaker 1: taking there we go thank you for listening to prof g markets from prof g media if you liked what you heard give us a follow and tune in tomorrow for a fresh take on the markets