Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the early signals to watch on Election Night

[0:00] Well, if it's the day before Election Day, that means it's Politics Monday. [0:04] And here with us is our usual duo, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter [0:09] and Tamara Keith of NPR. [0:11] It's great to see you both. [0:12] So on the eve of these midterms, President Trump is relitigating the damage done to the [0:17] Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, even though his own Justice Department, we should say, [0:21] concluded that the botched construction, not vandalism, was responsible for the damage there. [0:27] But Amy, what does it tell us about the president's priorities that he's still focused on this [0:31] when voters are focused on the economy and the direction of the country? [0:35] Yeah, I mean, you really, the split screen between voters' concerns and what the president [0:39] wants to talk about is not just apparent today in this press conference, but it has been [0:44] apparent to voters for quite some time. [0:46] And you can see that opinions about how the president is handling the economy, driven, [0:51] of course, by inflation and the cost of gas, but also driven by this frustration that voters [0:57] have that they don't think the president cares enough about it or is working hard enough on [1:03] these issues. [1:03] We hear it from voters all the time that they feel like, well, wait, why is the president [1:07] talking about this and not talking about the things that he campaigned on, which is lowering [1:11] my costs? [1:12] I also think it's notable when I'm listening to other Republicans how they're closing out [1:17] their campaign. Again, you said the election is going to be about the economy. We all know that [1:22] that's a top issue. But when you listen, especially in these red states, Republicans are closing out [1:28] their campaigns not on talking about what they're going to do to improve the economy, but how terrible [1:33] the Democrats are. It would be very problematic, say, a number of them in places like Texas [1:38] and Kansas if you elected this Democrat, because then it means Democrats are in charge of the [1:44] Senate. So hoping, not really trying to sway swing voters, just trying to turn out their [1:50] base, which, as we've talked about all year, still seems very, very uneager to vote. [1:57] And Tam, when the president in his remarks was talking about tomorrow's election, he didn't [2:01] sound entirely optimistic. I mean, you heard him use that same refrain about how the midterms [2:06] are often tough on the sitting president's party. He was almost telegraphing defeat. [2:11] Yeah, he was talking in the past tense, saying, like, we gave it a good try. And certainly, [2:17] the president and his allies did everything they could to tilt this playing field in favor of [2:23] Republicans, redrawing congressional district lines, just huge amounts of money, like truckloads [2:30] of money being spent on the air. But part of this is also decisions that President Trump made along [2:36] the way. Candidates he chose to support that are now creating major headaches for Republicans. [2:42] Like, Republicans should not have to have spent something like $400 million on air in the state [2:49] of Texas to hold onto a Senate seat there. And it's not clear they're going to be able to hold onto it. [2:54] Let's shift our focus to what's happening in Michigan, where the congresswoman there, [2:58] Haley Stevens, who lost to Abdul El-Sayed in the Senate race. She, in Senate primary, rather, [3:03] she abruptly endorsed the Republican Mike Rogers. Amy, is this last-minute spectacle surrounding Haley [3:09] Stevens, is it likely to have any real impact on the outcome of the race, or is this more about the [3:14] personalities involved? Yeah, I do really think it's much more about the personalities than any sort [3:19] of ideological piece. To be fair, there is an ideological divide between the two of them, [3:25] and specifically on the issue of Israel. And this isn't a real issue and concern within the Democratic [3:31] Party writ large, so not to minimize that. But the frustration, I think, that Stevens has, [3:38] and she's been communicating in the last 24 hours, seems much more personal than it is about policy. [3:45] That feeling as if El-Sayed and his campaign sort of rebuffed her, did not treat her well. [3:53] I don't know if you know this, but politicians sometimes have egos, and they can get bruised rather [3:59] much so. I think on both sides of this debate, there are two egos. We actually, at the Cook Political [4:08] Report, shifted this race, as a matter of fact, into leaning Democrat. We believe that, ultimately, [4:14] when you look at all the data that's out there, especially when you look at how El-Sayed has [4:19] consolidated the Democratic base, we just don't think there are enough Democrats out there or [4:25] Democratic-leaning voters who are thinking, should I vote for El-Sayed? Should I vote for Rogers that [4:31] are going to be moved enough to tip this race? And Tam, Stevens' defection appears to have had the [4:37] opposite of the intended effect, which is that it has galvanized Michigan Democrats largely around [4:43] El-Sayed. And he's raised like $2.5 million in 24 hours. Yes, he has raised a lot of money. And [4:50] this, you know, so many people have already voted, have already made up their minds. This is a really [4:55] late move. Yeah, it was absolutely a November surprise that maybe we weren't expecting yesterday. [5:01] But in terms of actually moving votes, changing the outcome of the race, it feels too late. [5:08] Is there a particular race that you're paying close attention to tomorrow as a bellwether, [5:11] let's say? Oh, oh, so many, Jeff. I can't wait to talk to you about all of the races that I'm watching. [5:18] But there's one in particular in Texas. It's the 35th district down around the Rio Grande Valley, [5:24] one of those districts that was drawn specifically by Republicans to gain a seat. And right now, [5:33] it is a state, it is a district that voted pretty overwhelmingly for Donald Trump. Right now, [5:38] that race is a toss-up. Where it goes, I think, is going to tell us a lot on election night about [5:44] just how deep into red territory Democrats may go. How about you, Tim? Or what is the [5:49] White House watching, too? Oh, well, we'll go with what I'm watching, which is the first [5:54] congressional district in North Carolina and the 25th congressional district in Florida. These are [5:58] also redrawn districts by Republicans aimed at taking out incumbent Democrats. And these races have [6:05] been hugely expensive, the most expensive House races on the air. And yet, Democrats look to be in [6:12] a pretty good position in both of those. And we'll get results early, which is why I'm watching it, [6:17] to see how the rest of the night is going to go. Right. And notably, the Florida and Texas rates [6:21] also, it's Latino voters that are going to make the difference here, which was the group of voters, [6:25] as we all know, that moved so dramatically in 2024 and seemed to be moving against Republicans this [6:30] time. Tamara Keith and Amy Walter. Amy, we'll see you back here tomorrow night. Indeed. Thank you.