About this transcript: This is a full AI-generated transcript of Fed chair Kevin Warsh testifies on monetary policy in Senate Banking hearing from PBS NewsHour, published July 16, 2026. The transcript contains 20,763 words with timestamps and was generated using Whisper AI.
"especially to the general public. The decisions that the Fed makes affect everyday life in South Carolina and around our country. For example, those decisions affect the mortgage payment a couple is trying to afford, the credit card bill a single mom is trying to pay down, and the decisions a small"
[0:00] especially to the general public. The decisions that the Fed makes affect
[0:04] everyday life in South Carolina and around our country. For example, those
[0:09] decisions affect the mortgage payment a couple is trying to afford, the credit
[0:13] card bill a single mom is trying to pay down, and the decisions a small business
[0:17] owner makes about whether they can afford a loan or not. Frankly, the Fed
[0:22] even has impact on the interest rate environment, as you know.
[0:25] The Reagan member and I spent over a year working on a housing bill that will
[0:31] actually help us increase housing supply, help us expedite the process of building
[0:37] a house through NEPA reform, it'll create more diversity in housing selection at
[0:41] the end, the removal of the chassis requirement. These are important issues
[0:46] that will make housing affordability incredibly easier, but it will never get
[0:52] to the main point of interest rates. The interest rate is something that you
[0:55] control that we don't control. We want you to follow the facts, however, because
[0:59] that is really important for the long-term durability of our economy. But in North
[1:03] Charleston, where I grew up, families do not talk about monetary policy, Kevin. They
[1:08] just don't talk in those terms. But they fully understand the principle that when
[1:13] prices rise faster than paychecks, it's really hard to make their ends meet. That
[1:20] is why affordability must be at the center of our conversation. The Federal
[1:24] Reserve has a mandate to pursue and promote a strong labor market through maximum
[1:28] employment and stable prices. Those are serious responsibilities, and I'm glad that
[1:33] you are the man for the job and you've taken it seriously. They require clear
[1:36] thinking, steady leadership, and the commitment to follow the data, no matter the
[1:41] political ramifications. It also requires understanding the forces shaping our
[1:45] economy, including AI's impact on jobs, wages, productivity, and prices. Independence is not
[1:54] a slogan. It is a responsibility. And the best way for the Fed to protect its
[1:59] independence is to stay focused on its mission. For too many years, the Federal
[2:04] Reserve drifted into issues outside of its core responsibilities, and America paid a price
[2:11] for it. Mission Crete makes the Fed less accountable and undermines public trust. I am encouraged by
[2:18] the steps that you are taking to reform our central bank. That starts with a more disciplined
[2:24] approach to how the Fed communicates. Moving away from overly detailed predictions about
[2:30] where interest rates might be going in the next several months is a helpful step to make
[2:35] sure the Fed is able to adapt when conditions change. Families, small businesses, and markets
[2:41] are better served when the Fed follows the data in front of them, not a forecast that may change
[2:48] in an instant. Less guessing and more discipline will help the Fed stay flexible, credible, and
[2:56] focused. The five independent task forces that you set up also sends a very important signal
[3:04] that the Fed is willing to start from its core principles and pursue thoughtful reforms to
[3:10] deliver on a statutory mandate. You and I had a quick conversation before walking in here
[3:16] and I wanted to note that I think that the working groups are fantastic. Frankly, I think
[3:20] the composition of the working groups is really important. One of the things that we talked
[3:24] about was a balance sheet working group. I must concede that I'm a fan of Abraham Lincoln's
[3:30] approach of these team of rivals and it seems like you have Jeremy Stein, you might know Jeremy
[3:36] from Harvard, as well as the former governor of the India central bank, Mr. Rajan. They have very
[3:43] nicely put competing approaches and philosophies about the balance sheet. But if you're going to be
[3:49] intellectually honest, you need to have a serious debate about what direction to go and frankly,
[3:55] how to get there. And so I'm really excited about what you're doing there and I look forward to
[4:01] hearing how that works out for you for the Federal Reserve and more importantly for the American
[4:05] people because unwinding a balance sheet the size that we have today is going to take a deliberate
[4:12] effort that will have to be paced properly not to create instability and volatility in our market. So
[4:18] thank you for taking that seriously. As AI reshapes the economy, the Fed should understand its impact on
[4:26] jobs productivity and prices and the financial system without using technological change to expand its
[4:32] mandate. That same discipline should guide the Fed's approach to bank regulation. The U.S. banking
[4:38] system is sound and resilient, but we cannot take that for granted. Preserving that strength requires
[4:44] regulation and supervision that are clear, appropriately tailored and focused on real risks. According to the July
[4:53] 2026 monetary policy report, bank capital is near historically high levels. As the Fed finalizes Basel
[5:00] III endgame and other capital rules, it should pursue better calibrated requirements that preserve
[5:05] resilience without unnecessarily restricting lending. When capital is stuck on the sidelines,
[5:11] a family in Emerald South Carolina may find it very difficult to get a mortgage. A small business may
[5:17] find it hard to get a loan. A community bank may spend more time satisfying Washington
[5:23] than serving its own customers. That is why this committee will continue pressing for regulations
[5:29] that protect the system without cutting off access to credit. I want the Fed to be very successful.
[5:36] We need the Fed to be successful. Prices become more stable when your job is done well, markets gain
[5:44] confidence, wages grow, and more families have the opportunity to save, invest, buy a home, and live
[5:52] their version of the American dream. Welcome today. Ranking Member, the floor is yours.
[5:58] Thank you Mr. Chairman and welcome back Mr. Warsh. So about two months ago you appeared in front of
[6:04] this committee for your nomination hearing and you refused to answer basic factual questions. I assume
[6:12] because you were afraid of contradicting President Trump. Your answers during the hearing were so troubling
[6:19] that this committee had a party line vote for Fed chair for the first time ever in our history. You
[6:27] were confirmed by the Senate in the tightest vote for a Fed chair in U.S. history. So you now face an
[6:34] uphill battle to show that you have the independence needed to run America's central bank and to serve
[6:42] American families and not just President Trump and his billionaire friends. Now President Trump's corruption
[6:50] and failed economic agenda is raising costs across the board. Inflation has kept real wages from growing
[6:58] for the third consecutive month. That means in the Trump economy families are falling behind with less to spend
[7:07] every day that goes by. High interest rates are making mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards more
[7:14] expensive. More and more people are falling behind on their bills. 95 percent of Americans believe that the
[7:23] U.S. is suffering an affordability crisis. While President Trump continues to call affordability a hoax,
[7:31] telling Americans their concerns about the cost of living are made up. Lower interest rates
[7:37] would provide some relief to families, but the Fed hasn't lowered interest rates and may be forced
[7:43] to raise rates even more, all because of one man, President Trump. Now the President knows this, so
[7:52] instead of changing course, he wants to take over the Fed. Installing you as Fed chair was a critical part
[7:59] of his plan. You reportedly told the President exactly what he wanted to hear in your Oval Office interview,
[8:06] and Trump confirmed it afterwards saying, quote, Warsh thinks you have to lower interest rates. Now for your
[8:14] part, you were the only member of the last Fed meeting who declined to submit economic projections.
[8:22] Projections that are supposed to show how the Fed's decisions under your leadership are likely to affect
[8:28] American consumers and American workers. People might look at that and conclude that you don't want to tell the
[8:35] truth about inflation under Trump. Trump may have you in his pocket, but he will not stop until he
[8:44] controls the Fed. And he just needs one more seat to do that. And that's why he has had his Department of
[8:50] Justice open bogus criminal investigations into both Governor Lisa Cook and former chair Jerome Powell. And that
[8:58] is why he illegally tried to fire Fed Governor Cook. His own Supreme Court recently blocked the firing,
[9:06] at least for now. But Trump has vowed to try again to fire Governor Cook. The fight for control is a fight
[9:15] over interest rates. But it is also about corruption. President Trump likes to play king. And the Fed offers
[9:25] many appealing opportunities for the president to enrich himself while he fleeces the American people.
[9:33] Start with crypto. Trump's family crypto company is World Liberty Financial, the centerpiece of the crypto
[9:40] federal enterprise that let him rake in 1.4 billion dollars in 2025 alone. Now it is currently applying
[9:51] for a bank charter. After that charter is granted by Trump's own bank regulator, World Liberty could seek
[9:59] special privileges from the Federal Reserve to juice its own profits like a master account that would give
[10:07] Trump's own company direct access to the Fed's core payment rails. And there's more. If he can control
[10:16] the Fed, Trump could threaten to revoke banks access to Fed services if they refuse to do his bidding. He could
[10:23] hijack the Fed's extraordinary powers to bail out financial markets making sure that he rewards his friends and
[10:31] punishes his enemies in a crisis. And you better bet that Trump will turbocharge the Wall Street deregulation
[10:40] that is already underway. Juicing mega bank profits and CEO bonuses knowing that American taxpayers will be on
[10:49] the hook once again if there's another devastating financial crash. Congress and the American people will be
[10:57] watching closely whether you serve the public or whether you become yet another instrument of Donald
[11:03] Trump's corruption. Thank you, Mr. President. Mr. Chairman. Thank you, ma'am. Chairman Warsh, thank you for
[11:10] being with us. The floor is yours. Five minutes. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member Warren,
[11:16] other members of the committee. Good morning. It's a privilege to join you. It's my first appearance
[11:22] before this panel as chairman, and I'm particularly honored to represent my superb colleagues from across the
[11:28] Federal Reserve System. In submitting the monetary policy report, I can't help but think of a long
[11:35] line of central bank chiefs who came before the Congress in keeping with the Federal Reserve Act,
[11:40] and I can't help but think of the best of the Fed's traditions. As a country, we just marked our 250th year,
[11:48] and when Americans count our blessings, we can include an economy predicated on the brilliance of our
[11:55] constitutional design and system of ordered liberty, an economy without equal in all it's done for human
[12:03] flourishing. Some forms of communication, including some that the ranking member referenced, are
[12:09] discretionary, but not this one, and for good reason. It's a prudent and wisely conceived obligation
[12:16] designed to keep the Fed responsible, accountable, and faithful to the mandate that you gave us of full
[12:23] employment and price stability. These obligations are of a piece with the Fed's rightful independence
[12:31] in the conduct of monetary policy. Today, we're at a hinge point in history, and it's up to each of us,
[12:37] myself included, to meet this moment. The Fed's number one objective is to get monetary policy right.
[12:46] That's our clear and constant aim, the star by which we steer by. And if we get policy right,
[12:53] and we will, the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.
[13:00] Just a month ago, I chaired my very first FOMC meeting. My colleagues and I recognize that high
[13:07] inflation has been an undue burden on American households and businesses. And while monthly
[13:14] fluctuations are inevitable, especially in an unsettled world, underlying inflation over longer
[13:21] term horizons is determined largely by monetary policy. As I've said before, and will say today,
[13:28] inflation is a choice. The members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation,
[13:35] and we share a resolute commitment to restore price stability. That was our focus when we met a month ago,
[13:42] at which we decided to hold the target range in the federal funds rate at three and a half to three
[13:48] and three quarters percent. Naturally, our work at the Fed demands a proper reading of economic conditions.
[13:55] As you might have seen in our report, economic activity is expanding at a solid pace,
[14:00] showing resilience in the face of recent developments. Household consumption, growth is moderate,
[14:07] and manufacturing output has moved up steadily this year. The housing sector, however, strikes a different note.
[14:14] It gives a different picture and continues to lag. I want to highlight the most striking feature of our
[14:20] economy right now, and its business investment. It is a surge in capital expenditures. Compare that to
[14:27] what we've seen for a long, long period of financial engineering. This is a better situation. The rapid rate,
[14:35] the rapid pace of CapEx, which appears to be accelerating, reflects in large part the construction of
[14:41] infrastructure, including in and around AI and the immense demand for AI-related equipment and software.
[14:49] Investment in equipment overall increased about eight percent for the year in the first quarter.
[14:54] Within that category, high-tech spending logged an especially impressive growth rate of about 25 percent.
[15:01] We don't yet know the extent to which the economy will benefit from this build-out, yet it seems
[15:07] inevitable, at least to me, that what is now called AI investment will soon just be called investment.
[15:15] Even so, new opportunities for the economy introduce new challenges for policymakers. We at the Fed are
[15:21] monitoring the implications for the inflation and for the labor market. That brings me to the supply
[15:27] side of the economy, a subject worthy of equal attention, where productivity growth has been strong.
[15:34] And I'll note that this productivity growth predates gains from AI adoption. America's labor force appears
[15:41] to be broadly stable. Job creation has kept pace with the workforce. The unemployment rate low and has
[15:48] changed little, quite frankly, over the last year. We're seeing relatively few layoffs and only slight
[15:54] variance in the rate of job vacancies. Solid growth in nominal wages, too. I've been heartened by the
[16:01] welcome I've received and by the encouragement of my colleagues. We have a duty to point the institution
[16:08] forward, to take a fresh look at current practices, to make sure we're serving our objectives and we're
[16:16] going about it systematically. As the chairman referenced, I appointed a task force in each of
[16:22] five areas that are central to the conduct of monetary policy. I'll just reference them and close.
[16:28] First, Fed communications. Second, our balance sheet policy. Third, our use of existing data. Fourth,
[16:37] productivity and jobs. And finally, the Fed's inflation framework. Our purpose here is to make better
[16:43] decisions in the conduct of monetary policy and put these years of high inflation behind us. We are the
[16:49] Federal Reserve, Mr. Chairman, and as determined as ever to fulfill our mission. Thank you and I welcome your questions.
[16:55] Thank you, Chairman. Each member will have five minutes to ask questions and get answers and I'll start
[17:01] that off. And I'll start off with your working groups. I think credibility equals transparency.
[17:07] And the names that I've seen on your working groups, from Doug McMillian, former CEO of Walmart,
[17:13] to Marc Andreessen on productivity and AI, tells me that you're serious about getting real-world experience
[17:20] and expertise involved in making decisions at the Fed. I want to give you just a minute of my time to
[17:27] to walk us through perhaps one or two pieces of that. As we talked about the importance of having
[17:34] contrast on the committee, on the working groups, really important from my perspective. I think it
[17:39] lends itself to having more confidence in the Federal Reserve. I want to give you a minute to talk about
[17:45] one part of it. And then I want to move quickly to AI. All right. Let me let me be brief, Mr. Chairman,
[17:51] but you're highlighting something that's awfully important. All institutions, including the Federal
[17:56] Reserve, which I am so proud to lead, filled with great people. On occasion, we need to bring new ideas
[18:04] to the fore. And after 63 months of inflation above the Fed's target, it struck me that any new leader
[18:11] should arrive at this organization and look to the very best minds that we could find. There's a lot
[18:16] of great ones at the Fed, but there's a lot of great ones that aren't even in economics profession.
[18:20] And I reached out to 15 people who I have known and trusted with a diversity of views to see whether
[18:27] they would take the most important questions that are going to be the determinants of monetary policy
[18:32] and the determinants of the economy in the next five years and see if they could sharpen their pencils
[18:37] and do their best work. It's a move towards transparency and new ideas. I'll just give
[18:42] one example before turning it back to you. In the last couple of days, we've gotten data on consumer
[18:49] price index today on the producer price index. Any central bank would be happy to have the data going
[18:58] in the right direction. My view is these are all imperfect measures of the state of underlying inflation.
[19:04] So one of the task force is going to see whether we can do better, have better data from external
[19:09] sources and even better ideas as to how important organizations like the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
[19:15] the Bureau of Economic Affairs might think about how they could do a better job in an evolving economy.
[19:22] Thank you. We met just a few weeks ago with Dr. Phelan, who's slated to be the head of the
[19:29] president's economic advisors. And we talked a lot about artificial intelligence and the impact that we'll have
[19:34] on our economy on whether or not it will destroy jobs, create jobs. And ultimately, at the end of
[19:38] the day, his conclusion was it'll create more jobs. Artificial intelligence has an opportunity to change
[19:44] how we do so many things. And much of the debate for me can be bifurcated into automation. Things go away
[19:50] and augmentation. People make more money because production goes up. And you've argued that perhaps
[19:55] there's a way for us to see a reduction in interest rates because of the increase in productivity.
[20:00] One of the things standing in the way of that conversation is what's happening in South Carolina
[20:06] where data centers are meeting real headwinds. New York has basically banned them. We have a moratorium
[20:12] in parts of South Carolina because of issues like electricity bills, water use, aesthetics.
[20:19] So getting to the future that we're talking about and, frankly, beating China in this AI race might come
[20:26] down to something as important as electricity bills and water usage, which could prevent us from having
[20:34] a serious conversation about productivity gains. Thoughts?
[20:38] Yeah. I can't think, Mr. Chairman, of a more consequential change to the U.S. and global economy
[20:48] in my life in my adult lifetime than the surge of investment and the potential in around AI.
[20:57] That's part of the reason why one of my task forces is to focus on what's the effect of this
[21:01] general purpose technology on both parts of the Fed's mandate on ensuring stable prices,
[21:08] but also on full employment. You gave us both parts of that. We don't have any legislative orphans
[21:13] at the Fed. There's no disfavored part. I would say it is a huge opportunity, but it's not without
[21:19] challenges. I'll make two other brief points. I think the United States is extremely well positioned
[21:25] to be at the cutting edge and extract more productivity, which should be good for U.S.
[21:30] companies and U.S. workers than any other country in the world. Any other country would exchange
[21:36] positions with us in a moment. Second thing is I do want to make it clear that in the near
[21:43] term, I think this investment is probably quite good for jobs as we're building out the infrastructure.
[21:49] And over the long term, my best guess is that this will improve American productivity and will improve
[21:57] the real wages and will help us on full employment. But between the short term and the long term,
[22:03] it can have a disruptive effect. And we're attuned to that. And that's part of the reason why I wanted
[22:08] to shed some new light on it with some outsiders. My time is up, but I will submit one
[22:13] question for the record around the issue of indexing our regulatory thresholds.
[22:19] We've seen so much growth in the last since 2019 that our institutions might need to see
[22:25] a little recalibration on the thresholds that we have put upon them. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
[22:35] So the Federal Reserve has long been plagued by a culture of corruption and coziness with Wall Street.
[22:43] Over the last five years, at least six senior Fed officials have been implicated in serious
[22:50] epic scandals related to personal stock trading and self-dealing. But instead of trying to repair
[22:58] this broken culture, I'm concerned that you seem to be embracing it. At the time of your nomination,
[23:03] you owned more than a hundred million dollars worth of shares in private investment vehicles called
[23:09] the Juggernaut Funds and THSDFS LLC. And you refuse to disclose the underlying assets to the Senate and
[23:20] to the public. You say now that you've sold those shares. In other words, somebody wrote you a check
[23:26] for more than a hundred million dollars days before you entered office. Chair Walsh, who wrote that check?
[23:36] Senator Warren, this is a discussion you and I had in the public square seven weeks ago,
[23:41] and I'm thrilled to tell you that I have fully honored the obligations I had under the
[23:46] office of the agreement I had with the Office of Government Ethics.
[23:49] Yeah, I'm glad you did. And there is continued disclosure, which I'm happy to make as consistent
[23:53] with the agreement. I asked a very specific question. Who gave you a hundred million dollars
[23:59] right before you were sworn in? Was it a billionaire who has business with the Fed?
[24:05] Was it Stanley Druckenmiller, who's made billions of dollars betting on what the Fed does? Or was it a
[24:11] different billionaire? Who gave you the money? I will fully comply with the Office of Government
[24:18] Ethics. That's not an answer. Well, it is an answer, actually, Senator, because there are
[24:22] obligations. It's a hundred million dollars that you got just before you were sworn in,
[24:28] and you won't tell the American people where it came from. Let's go to another incident. As you know,
[24:33] the Fed imposes a blackout period where senior Fed officials are prohibited from talking about
[24:39] economic issues with outsiders. The idea is to, quote, reinforce the public's confidence in the
[24:46] transparency and integrity of the monetary policy process. In other words, no one gets some special
[24:53] insider information from the Fed. But shortly after your first FOMC meeting as chair, right in the
[25:00] middle of the blackout period, the Fed's vice chair for supervision, Michelle Bowman, was reportedly the
[25:08] featured guest at a secret dinner hosted by Bank of America for its hedge fund and Wall Street clients.
[25:16] At this closed-door dinner, she reportedly spoke about both monetary policy topics and regulatory policy.
[25:25] Now, I've called on the inspector general to review her conduct, but you're the guy in charge. As chair,
[25:32] you set the tone on culture. Did Vice Chair Bowman provide any non-public information to the attendees
[25:40] at that secret dinner or discuss any regulatory policy matters that are subject to open comment periods?
[25:49] Senator, I agree with one of the premises of your question, which is I do set the culture.
[25:55] Good. After my very first week at the Fed, I sent a letter to the 21,000 people at the Fed,
[26:02] outlining our culture. I appreciate that, but we have very limited time and a very strict chairman.
[26:07] So can you just answer the question about the vice chair and her secret meeting?
[26:12] Sure. I'm happy to to the extent I can share it with you. The vice chair has been an excellent
[26:18] colleague in my first seven weeks. I'm aware of the letter you sent to the inspector general
[26:24] out of an enormous respect for him. His investigation, what he chooses to do with it,
[26:29] I'm going to leave to him to do without trying to micromanage that. I'd be interested in the
[26:34] judgments that he that he comes to. So you will support his investigation.
[26:39] Have you made your own investigation? Did you ask her if she spoke at a secret meeting during the
[26:44] blackout period? I agree with the suggestion that the inspector general is an independent actor,
[26:51] and I'd be very interested in his decision. You just said you're the guy in charge. Did you ask her
[26:57] about the secret meeting that took place? Did you ask her? I can answer a simple question,
[27:04] which is I wasn't at the meeting. I don't know the facts, but I'd be very interested in the fact
[27:11] finding being done by an independent inspector general. Did you care enough to ask how can you be
[27:15] chair and not ask your own vice chair whether or not she violated the blackout period, violated the
[27:23] law? I think it'd be inappropriate for me to prejudge facts that are being discovered by an independent
[27:28] actor. I don't know how you prejudge them if you don't ask. Well, I don't know how to prejudge them if
[27:33] I wasn't in the attendance of a meeting. Did you ask? She's been an excellent colleague. Did you ask?
[27:39] I've asked her a lot of things about supervision and regulation because we've been busy doing a lot
[27:45] of real work over the last seven weeks. I've got to say, I'm going to take the same time you did.
[27:48] I just got to say. You hope so. The tone that you are setting is one that seems to invite
[27:55] corruption, and that's going to be a real problem. We've had seven weeks, Senator
[27:59] Warren, and we've set a tone of performance, accountability, responsibility, and integrity.
[28:05] Senator Allen has the floor. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Warsh, welcome to your first meeting.
[28:12] Thank you, Senator. Let me give you an opportunity. I think
[28:18] I've got some questions that I think are important with regard to the Basel III and what we're going to
[28:22] do with it. But before we get into that, I think you've been basically harassed a little bit in terms
[28:28] of making accusations to you. Let me give you just a minute to perhaps respond in a just straightforward
[28:36] manner to some of this stuff. Anybody give you $100 million? No, Senator. No one did any such thing.
[28:44] Possible that you may have had assets that were sold based upon an agreement that you had
[28:51] as you became the nominee for the chairmanship? Yes, I had earned assets over a long period of time
[28:58] and went over and above any ethics agreements and have sold, or in the process of selling,
[29:04] have nearly completely sold everything that I had earned during that period and have rolled those
[29:09] into the equivalent of cash and T-bills. So basically away from investments based upon
[29:18] the market and back to treasuries. Yes, exactly right. I thought that that was the prudent thing to do,
[29:26] given the responsibilities and the importance of setting the tone at the top. Culture is the big
[29:32] driver of a lot of things. And in my first seven weeks, Senator, we're doing our very best in the
[29:38] best of the Fed's traditions to get the culture right, to get the strategy right, and to get policy
[29:43] right. And if we can do those things, all of which are to the left of the decimal point might not be of
[29:48] such great interest to people that are trading on Wall Street. And I think the decisions we make to
[29:53] the right of the decimal decimal point can be better. So we can do a better job of fulfilling the mandate you
[29:59] gave us. Yeah. The ranking member had asked a question with regard to another member on the
[30:05] committee, Nikki Bowman. And you indicated that if there was an accusation being made as to an
[30:13] inappropriate meeting, that if the inspector general was doing it, that you were going to be
[30:19] hands off on it. It seems to me that that's pretty appropriate. Because if you would have gotten involved
[30:25] in it, the accusation from some members on this committee would have been that you were trying
[30:28] to influence it. Yes. Can you talk a little bit about the logic? Am I on the right track with
[30:34] regard to the reasoning that you have for allowing the inspector general to do the job that they were
[30:39] asked to do in the first place by members on this committee? Yes, Senator, you're exactly on the right
[30:45] track. I'll just say more broadly that my fellow governors, my reserve bank presidents,
[30:52] they've received me incredibly warmly. I admit that I show up with a lot of ideas for reform
[30:58] in monetary policy and supervision regulation and payments. I've only been there a short while for
[31:03] seven weeks. But instead of an institution acting inert, what I've found is my colleagues are really
[31:10] open minded to change. What I found is we're going to have a good family fight. I'm not imposing ideas.
[31:16] That's part of the idea of the task force is the chairman reference. But we're going to try to be
[31:20] better at our jobs, fulfill our mission, be accountable, be responsible, and do it all with
[31:26] the utmost integrity. That's my intention. We're early into this. I don't want to prejudge outcomes.
[31:32] We made a lot of progress in a short period of time. And frankly, I'm proud of it. I like the idea
[31:37] that you're putting together working groups. I think that will give up give an opportunity for a
[31:41] fresh look at a lot of things going on. As I shared with you in a phone call earlier,
[31:45] it's not a matter of being necessarily vindictive or angry with previous chairs or previous members.
[31:51] It's a matter of making things better for the American people. And that's really what we ought
[31:54] to be talking about today. So let me just in the minute and 14 seconds that I've got left on mine,
[32:00] let me talk a little bit about Basel III in particular. I think you and Vice Chairman Bowman and
[32:06] the respective financial regulators, I think you've done a good job in terms of your roles with regard to
[32:10] the Basel III re-proposal that was issued this March. The 2023 proposal would have substantially
[32:16] increased common equity capital requirements for Category 1 and Category 2 banks by approximately 19
[32:22] percent, failing to strike a balance between maintaining resiliency of our banking system
[32:28] and doing so without hampering lending. I think this is a really critical item. And next to what
[32:35] artificial intelligence is going to do in terms of our productivity, I think it's one of the biggest
[32:39] issues out there. With the June 18th comment deadline now behind us, are there any other
[32:44] categories of feedback that you're weighing more heavily than others, such as the adjustments to
[32:49] leverage ratios or anything along that line? And if I could, is there going to be a go-live date
[32:55] this year sometime? Any idea when you might actually be able to talk about when this thing
[33:01] is going to go public for us? Senator, well, thank you for your question on supervision regulation.
[33:05] As I mentioned before, I've shown up with a lot of ideas for reform, not just in monetary policy,
[33:11] but in supervision and regulation too. When I was before this committee some 20 years ago,
[33:16] there was a debate about what the Basel process should be. Boy, we should get to the bottom of that
[33:21] 20 years later, and we should end up with a set of reforms in the United States that makes our financial
[33:27] system in our banks safer, sounder, and more competitive. It is that competition which provides
[33:34] better and more agile credit to the real economy. The Basel endgame, Senator, is not America's endgame.
[33:42] I am happy to work with international regulators to try to find common views, but we're going to do
[33:48] the right thing for the U.S. economy. As you mentioned, we're out for public comment. I'll be very
[33:52] interested in the comments before we go final with the proposed final rule. Let me just say this is
[33:59] already off to a good start. We're going to stay around five minutes, period. Thank you. Senator
[34:07] Reed, the floor is yours. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman Walsh, I want to see if I put a cap on this
[34:14] discussion between Senator Warren and Senator Rounds. When will you disclose who brought your assets when?
[34:22] I believe there's periodic requirements under the ethics laws and I'll fully comply with them.
[34:27] I think the next reporting requirement is at some point next quarter or so. And you will fully
[34:32] disclose who you sold your assets to? I'll fully comply with the with the law and the ethics agreement.
[34:38] Thank you. AI is making a huge impact on everything we do, particularly the banking system. And as you're
[34:46] aware, an interagency governmental group, commerce, treasury, energy, et cetera, has authorized the major
[34:57] banks, the eight major banks, to use mythos to evaluate their security. Would you agree that it's
[35:05] important for all financial institutions to have access to these types of AI tools so that they could
[35:12] analyze their operations for cyber vulnerabilities? Yes, I think the broad financial system has new
[35:21] vulnerabilities with these new technologies. I wouldn't want to just isolate mythos though.
[35:26] The other large language models have rival products. The changes, the efficient frontier has changed even
[35:32] in the last month. But as these new models find their way more broadly, our banking system and frankly,
[35:38] the Federal Reserve needs to do all we can to patch any vulnerabilities that we have.
[35:43] What are you doing to ensure that these midsize and smaller banking institutions have access to
[35:51] whatever AI tools appropriate as quickly as possible? Yeah, so I share the sentiment, Senator Reid.
[35:58] There is a, we are not the deciders as to who has access, but I have not been shy in sharing my views
[36:05] with authorities across the government about the vulnerabilities and have been asking for access,
[36:11] not just for the Federal Reserve, but for other institutions to a whole range of these new
[36:17] artificial intelligence models so that they can protect themselves. If you said to me,
[36:22] what worries you over the course of the next several months? I want to make sure that we're as protected
[36:28] as we can be from foreign actors that want to do us harm. Well, let me change to stay with AI,
[36:35] but change the focus a moment. Recently, Governor Waller and New York Fed President John Williams have
[36:42] warned that AI investments may be increasing inflation, and many economists have similar warnings. So
[36:50] are AI investments current drivers of inflation? This is one of the good family fights. Let me give my
[36:58] own view on it, which might be somewhat nuanced from the way you just described it and some of my colleagues.
[37:06] The shock of AI, the supply shock of AI, has an effect on demand and supply. We see the effect on
[37:13] demand much more quickly. We see it in the capital investment I referenced. We see it in the prices of
[37:18] chips that are going up. We're inferring, which is just a fancy word for guessing, when the effects will
[37:24] happen on the supply side of the economy. I don't view a one-time change in prices as necessarily being
[37:32] inflationary, because I think there's a supply response. In that way, this is different from
[37:38] a foreign conflict and what it might do, which tends to reduce the supply side of the economy.
[37:44] Will it increase measured prices over the course of the next 12 months? I suspect it will be. Whether
[37:49] that's inflationary or not, that's up to the Federal Reserve and we're going to have something to say
[37:54] about that. Okay. Now, one of the interesting things about our economy is becoming more and more
[38:01] productive. But one of the disappointing things is that household pay is not rising relative to that
[38:10] productivity. And we're seeing less benefit from productivity gains. So what's driving this trend?
[38:18] Yeah, it's a great question. I don't have a perfect answer to it. Like you, we think a lot about
[38:24] real take-home pay. The part that the Fed can do a lot about is the real part. If inflation were lower,
[38:33] real take-home pay would be higher. That's just the arithmetic. Your other question is a broader one,
[38:39] which is what are we going to see the productivity improvements lead to a surge in wages? Wages have moved
[38:45] up at a reasonable pace, but it's likely that as productivity moves up more, we should see wages
[38:52] move more. Getting that timing right, understanding when that happens, that's a puzzle and it's a puzzle
[38:57] we're going to continue to work on. In the last 10 seconds, will AI eliminate jobs at a catastrophic
[39:05] rate? So you're asking me to prejudge the task force. My short answer is over the long term,
[39:12] absolutely not. I believe that this is a long-term job creator, but will it be disruptive and will
[39:18] some people have their jobs at jeopardy because of the new technologies? On that, I can't offer any
[39:23] sort of guarantee or comfort. Senator Britt. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
[39:28] Chair, thank you so much for being here with us today. Certainly appreciate the opportunity to have
[39:33] a conversation and obviously so early in your tenure in this new role. In this year's monetary policy
[39:42] report, one of the most encouraging themes is the increase in business investment that we're seeing
[39:48] across the country. In Alabama and many places, we're seeing companies expand, manufacturers grow,
[39:55] and communities are benefiting from that investment. I believe that these are good signs and that they're
[40:01] also important for the future because they help us determine whether America remains the most
[40:07] competitive economy in the world. My question for you is, as you look at the economy, what data tells
[40:14] you that today's investments are laying the groundwork and the foundation for a stronger long-term growth
[40:20] and greater American competitiveness? So it's a great question and thanks for highlighting the
[40:26] capital investment boom. This is what most countries are searching for. This is the seed corn of the next
[40:33] group of job creation and productivity. To be honest, over the last dozen or so years, we have been
[40:40] waiting for the surge in business investment. I know in some academic accounting sense, this is leading to
[40:45] a surge in prices in the next 12 months. I don't want to sound dismissive of it. The surge in prices is real,
[40:51] but I'd sure rather the most successful companies in the world investing in property, plant and equipment
[40:58] than doing a share buyback. So I'm encouraged by it. The trend is our friend here and this business
[41:04] capital investment is contributing massively to the GDP we've seen in the last 12 months. My colleagues
[41:11] know I'm not big for forward guidance, but I would guess that that trend continues. What gives me optimism
[41:18] about it? Well, when the private sector deploys this amount of capital, they must see something shiny at
[41:24] the other end of that rainbow. They must see a very good return on investment. That's why they're
[41:29] taking this capital and they're putting it to work. I tend to think that private investment has a
[41:35] multiplier way higher than one. I'll let you and others judge whether that's true of government spending
[41:41] too. I'm going to go ahead and switch gears because I know we're on a tight timeframe today, which I
[41:47] appreciate. And I'm going to follow up on a question that the chairman asked. I'd like to get you to kind of
[41:54] dig into this. Some banks are already approaching and crossing into new tailoring categories and
[42:00] they're making staffing and compliance and long-term business decisions based on thresholds that
[42:06] haven't been updated since 2019. At the same time, the Federal Reserve continues to rely on those
[42:13] categories and other regulatory frameworks. So my question is, how are you thinking about updating
[42:18] these tailoring frameworks when it comes to what banks can expect to see and proposals in the future?
[42:25] So it's a great question. One I take seriously to be candid with you and the chairman, the other
[42:30] members of the committee. Monetary policy has distracted me a bit in the first seven weeks,
[42:36] but the Federal Reserve chairman is supposed to be the chairman of monetary policy and payments and
[42:42] consumer affairs and supervision regulation. But I can tell you this,
[42:45] Vice Chairman Bowman has been working on these initiatives. She has briefed me about them.
[42:51] And broadly, I'll step back and say modernizing our banking system, streamlining regulations so that
[42:58] the rules that apply to the systemically important financial institutions are not one size fits all for
[43:04] every other. The secret to the American economy is we have a few thousand banks and other providers of credit
[43:11] who know their smaller markets bigger. I'd rather have that system than what most of our G20 peers
[43:16] have, where they have a half a dozen institutions implicitly backed by their government. I think
[43:21] reform is coming to supervision and regulation. I have my own ideas that might be as dramatic as I've
[43:27] already shared on monetary policy here. And I think the sooner we can get to the bottom of it, the better.
[43:33] If I could say one more thing, the reforms we've been putting in place over the last 15 years coming
[43:38] out of Dodd-Frank, as we learned in the Silicon Valley Bank example, in the First Republic example,
[43:44] they didn't work perfectly. My predecessors had very little choice but then to do another
[43:50] overall bailout. We don't want that to happen again. So we want to tailor the rules and the capital so
[43:55] they serve the best interests of the U.S. economy, which I'd describe as a system that is safe, sound and competitive.
[44:02] And I just hope, given what you've said, we double down on reviewing the framework. We know how
[44:09] important tailoring is and also just the need for regulatory certainty. So thank you for that. In my
[44:16] last remaining seconds, I just want to say thank you for your commitment in the first seven weeks,
[44:22] almost two months, you said it earlier, but to performance, to accountability, to responsibility,
[44:28] and to integrity. Appreciate what you're doing and look forward to continuing to work with you.
[44:33] Thank you, Senator. Senator Warner.
[44:35] Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman Walsh, it's good to see you again. Seven weeks in,
[44:41] you got a hell of a job. Inflation is still too high. How you predict the president's chaotic
[44:46] foreign policy wars in the Middle East. I'm going to come to an AI question, but let me be clear,
[44:53] as I said to you yesterday, I didn't vote for you. But we're going to find a lot of common ground to work
[44:57] together. I am going to hold you and I've been appreciative of your comments about inflation,
[45:01] about the Fed's independence. But I think there are many, many common areas we can work together on
[45:06] and look forward to that. I want to hit, you know, when one of the things that most impressed me in
[45:10] our first meeting was your recognition that probably the biggest issue you're going to face is AI.
[45:16] My two senses, I think it is going to have long term, I agree with you, going to be job creation.
[45:21] Very short term, I think you may see some upsurge in terms of, you know, energy production and data
[45:27] center build out. Years two through five, two through six, I think there could be massive economic
[45:32] disruption, particularly towards new college grads. You know, it's policymaker's job, but if this is
[45:38] going to have the potential effect, I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't, I'd take a bet with you that
[45:42] three years out, we could see 30% recent college grad unemployment. If we see that, what do you see
[45:49] as the Fed's role in terms of urging your actions, but also helping us sort that out?
[45:54] Senator, first of all, I appreciate it. I promise. Don't say nice things about me. He's got me on a
[46:02] clock. Answer my question. All right, good. Well, let me just say. I do indeed. Let me just say this.
[46:08] I appreciate that you haven't given up me, given up on me. I haven't given up on you. I haven't given
[46:14] up on your colleagues. I'm the independent head of a central bank. No matter how people voted, I'm going
[46:19] to be serving all of you. This doesn't count against my time.
[46:21] A.I., let me get to the core of your question. I am more confident that there will be a surge in
[46:31] output because the U.S. is at the cutting edge of A.I. than any certainty about the effect on the labor
[46:39] market in the next few years. The United States will be a winner. That is my informed judgment.
[46:46] But this is a time filled with both challenges and risks. We take both parts of our dual
[46:52] mandate seriously. Do I believe that the productivity improvements over time will be
[46:57] structurally disinflationary? I do. I believe everything technology touches ultimately gets
[47:03] cheaper. Your background, I think, would be consistent with that. What are going to be the
[47:07] effect on the labor markets in years two through five? It's a fair question. The way I would frame it
[47:12] to you on college graduates, if you're a new college graduate, A.I. is probably native to you.
[47:19] You've been playing with A.I. effectively since your high school years. I feel as though you likely
[47:25] have the skills and the intuitions the same way that people of my generation or younger were native
[47:31] to the Internet. If you've already been in the workforce for a while and you're a little resistant
[47:36] to change, that's where the encouragement needs to be to think about how these skills can make you
[47:41] more productive. These are fair questions. I don't have easy answers, but I do have a task force.
[47:46] We have to work together on it because if we hit this bump, and I think it's going to come,
[47:52] we've got to collaborate. Now, Senator Reid asked a very good question about mythos, and I 100% agree.
[47:57] Mythos is already yesterday's news because these models are coming out so quickly and they pose such
[48:03] security risks. I think it's incumbent because of the risk it provides to our financial system
[48:09] that at some point you're going to be, and I'm asking you now, I think personally I believe we need
[48:15] some level of mandatory testing be pre-release because of the potentially draconian and dramatic
[48:21] effects. Now, how long, who's on that panel is critical, but what do you think about pre-testing
[48:28] release regime going forward, more than just the voluntary willingness of a company to come forward?
[48:33] Yeah, so two things. First, these models and their capabilities are growing at an exponential rate.
[48:41] In technology, we would say hyper Moore's law. It wasn't long ago people sitting in my position
[48:47] thought that the U.S. was a time of secular stagnation. All the good stuff had been invented.
[48:52] Boy, that seems awfully anachronistic. We're moving fast, so what can we do? I don't have,
[48:58] as it currently structured, decision rights as to who has access, but I do have a bully pulpit,
[49:03] as you mentioned, and I'm unafraid to share my views with the Treasury Secretary and others.
[49:09] The cutting edge is moving very quickly. Key institutions are vulnerable. The sooner they can
[49:16] mitigate their vulnerabilities, the better. I'm looking forward to-
[49:19] Well, I hope that you will be willing to advocate moving on beyond a voluntary regime,
[49:23] because the downside risk. 12 seconds. You know, quickly address the role of
[49:30] all of the Federal Reserve Banks and your vision of what the role they should play.
[49:33] So very quickly, I'll just say this. We should be good stewards of taxpayer money. We should be
[49:39] consolidating functions where we can, but my mental model, Senator, as I mentioned to you yesterday,
[49:44] is we should have 12 Centers of Excellence. I've got more than 12 problems on my plate,
[49:49] and if each Reserve Bank were to develop an expertise on something that matters to our remit,
[49:53] and the American economy, I'd encourage them to develop that advantage.
[49:57] Senator Ricketts.
[49:58] Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman Warsh, great to see you. Thank you for being here,
[50:03] and congratulations on your first semiannual report. Good to see you here again.
[50:08] We got some good news this week. Inflation was down, and that's progress.
[50:13] Progress under this administration and under your new leadership at the Fed.
[50:17] During the Biden administration, we saw reckless spending that drove prices up
[50:22] and left Nebraska families to foot the bill. In 2019, the federal deficit was roughly 900 billion
[50:28] dollars, and by 2024, that was 1.9 trillion dollars. And we saw inflation go up 20 percent,
[50:34] really stressing Nebraska families at the grocery store. Cleaning out this mess is going to take
[50:41] discipline, and it's going to take reform. Chairman Warsh, we discussed in our meeting also how to implement
[50:48] some reforms, such as process improvement. We talked specifically about Lean Six Sigma,
[50:53] and the opportunity there. You promised to have a reform-oriented Federal Reserve,
[50:58] and we're willing to break up or, you know, make a break from some of the mistakes of the past.
[51:03] I commend you for that, and want to work with you to see it through. One of the most important places
[51:08] to start is with the Fed's balance sheet, an issue I've consistently raised with other Fed governors.
[51:14] The Fed expanded its balance sheet dramatically during the pandemic, peaking at nearly nine
[51:19] trillion dollars. Since 2022, the Fed has shrunk it down to about 6.5 trillion in December 2025,
[51:26] and I'm glad to see that the Fed was making progress over the last few years, but the balance sheet
[51:32] is still not down to pre-COVID levels. Actually, the balance sheet is rising again and now stands at
[51:37] around 6.7 trillion dollars today. Chairman Warsh, do you see the balance sheet increasing again as a trend
[51:44] in the right direction or the wrong direction? Senator, thank you for the question. I've been
[51:49] focused on the Fed's balance sheet, frankly, since my last day at the Fed some 15 years ago into the
[51:55] present. I don't want to prejudge the conclusions of this balance sheet task force, where, as the
[52:01] chairman said, I put together a team of rivals to fiddle with it, to evaluate it, to come up with their own
[52:09] judgments. But I'll give you my predilections. Monetary policy is made currently through at least
[52:16] two material instruments, interest rates and the balance sheet. In fact, we grew the balance sheet,
[52:22] created quantitative easing when I served the last time in the darkest days of the crisis, because we'd
[52:28] already cut rates to zero. So expanding the balance sheet had the intent of helping markets clear, but
[52:34] it was also another tool of monetary policy. I still believe that is true. Wasn't that supposed to be
[52:38] temporary? Indeed, that was our entry principle, was that we would get out of that business. The
[52:45] central bank has not, for a whole range of reasons, gotten out of that business. My general view is, as we
[52:51] think about inflation risks and we think about the conduct of monetary policy writ large, we have two
[52:57] instruments that we should be thinking about. The balance sheet is one of them. I'll make only one other
[53:01] point. Monetary policy needs to be architected, needs to be designed by the policy makers around the FOMC.
[53:12] The plumbing, the operations, how we do that is conducted by the New York Fed. I want the architecture
[53:19] to drive the plumbing, not the plumbing to drive the architecture. We're going to make a monetary policy
[53:24] decision with respect to the balance sheet. I'm very open-minded to changes and any changes we make will
[53:30] be well discussed, well shared, and I think quite deliberate. And the financial markets who have seen
[53:36] the balance sheet grow effectively for a generation, they'll have plenty of time to adjust if we make
[53:41] changes. I know you said you just wanted to make that one comment, but I'm going to push you to ask
[53:46] for a little more. What do you believe is the smallest balance sheet that the Fed could operate with?
[53:52] My predilection, my inclination, is interest rate policy should be the driver of monetary policy.
[54:01] The balance sheet should be as small as practicable to conduct operations. And the balance sheet can
[54:07] expand when there's a crisis. The balance sheet can also expand if an institution needs liquidity.
[54:13] That's part of the reason why we've created a discount window. But a permanently large balance sheet
[54:20] with the duration of assets that are larger than the duration of assets of treasuries, for example,
[54:26] that are held in the broader public markets. Boy, that sure seems a little bit more like fiscal
[54:31] policy that I'm comfortable with. So I would like us to have a leaner, meaner balance sheet,
[54:37] but it's a discussion for my colleagues. And I've got three real pros that are going to help us think
[54:41] it through. All right. Well, I have run out of time and I'm sure the chair will be happy. I'm going to
[54:46] maybe get done before it reaches zero. But I do have a question I'll follow up with for the record
[54:51] on scams, because this is something that the banking industry is telling me they're increasingly seeing
[54:56] and is costing people who have deposits a lot of money. So I'll follow up with that. Senator,
[55:01] we're opposed to scams, but I'm happy to follow up. Good to hear. Good to hear. Senator Van Halen.
[55:10] Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And Mr. Chairman, we agree on that point. Let me turn to the headline
[55:17] inflation numbers that came out yesterday at 3.5% above the Fed's 2.2% target. Prices are too high
[55:27] for families and we need to get them down. I think we can agree on that. At your press conference a few
[55:32] weeks ago, you said that higher inflation in part, and I quote, reflects supply shocks that have driven
[55:38] price increases in certain sectors, including energy, unquote. In other words, a reason that
[55:44] we're seeing prices go up is that the supply of products and services has dropped in some areas
[55:51] of the economy, right? Yes. And I do think it's important that the public understand the causes
[55:59] of some of these supply shocks. You would agree, would you not, Mr. Chairman, that the war in Iran has
[56:04] caused a supply shock in the energy markets? Yeah, the military conflicts have caused the price of oil
[56:10] to be higher than it otherwise would. Absolutely right. And Americans are paying the burden of that
[56:16] as we go. We've also seen supply shocks in other areas. Last year, your colleague, Austin Goolsbee,
[56:24] President of the Chicago Fed, said that, and I quote, a tariff is like a negative supply shock,
[56:30] unquote. And we've seen plenty of tariffs. Obviously, we have the Supreme Court decision that
[56:34] may bring those down over time, the impact of it. But the negative supply shocks have been real and can
[56:41] be traced to the Trump administration agenda. So when you say that supply shocks are part of the reason
[56:50] prices are going up, you would acknowledge that they're the result of decisions that have been made
[56:55] by the president, like going to war with Iran, right? So what I'd say is particular price shocks
[57:01] happen to particular prices that we don't have control over. But I don't want to suggest we don't
[57:05] have control over inflation in the medium term. That's our job. But screw worm affects beef prices,
[57:11] other things affect oil and oil prices and milk prices. And I understand that has an effect on
[57:17] people's household household budgets. Indeed, it does. And I think we've seen the price of energy go up
[57:24] by billions and billions of dollars. And the American people are essentially paid for that
[57:29] at the at the pump and other places in their pocketbooks. As you know, your your predecessor
[57:35] as chairman was regularly harassed and berated by the president United States on social media with
[57:42] respect to interest rates, at least so far, you seem to have escaped that that fate. But I do think it's
[57:51] important that we have an understanding of whether or not the president is trying to
[57:55] influence Fed conduct. I know you were asked recently at your last press conference about
[58:04] any communications with the president. I think your response was on the president. I don't have
[58:08] anything for you. Mr. Chairman, was that a yes or no with respect to whether you've had
[58:12] communications with President Trump? So I like what I said the first time, Senator,
[58:16] I don't have anything for you. I will say this, though, I do meet with the Treasury Secretary weekly.
[58:21] I talk to him often between that and I'll make my own decision. I just want to understand the answer.
[58:30] Have you or have you not had communications with President Trump since you took this position?
[58:34] I just don't want to be in the business of sharing discussions that the president and I have.
[58:40] I will tell you what I've said to the president repeatedly instead of the Treasury Secretary.
[58:46] They chose an independent guy to do an independent job. And that's exactly what I plan on doing.
[58:50] And I'd like to think over the last seven weeks, given the decisions we've made and the things
[58:55] we've done, that it's not just words, it's actions now to start to demonstrate. So so,
[58:59] Mr. Chairman, I mean, I think it's important I take from your answer. You had communications,
[59:03] you don't want to disclose the content. Will you commit to do what your predecessor did,
[59:08] which was to release your appointment schedule and conversations with President Trump?
[59:13] Well, I don't know what the past practice was. I will be in full compliance with the law. As I
[59:20] understand it, there's an ongoing FOIA request on my calendar and I will share it consistent with the
[59:24] law. Well, this is the first one's already come out. I think this was a this wasn't in response to,
[59:29] you know, any legal requirement forced by FOIA. It was a question of transparency. And I do think,
[59:35] given the president's past record of trying to influence fed behavior via social media,
[59:43] with respect to your predecessor, if he's trying to influence fed behavior through private conversations
[59:49] with you, I think that needs to be something the public is aware of. And I'm asking you whether
[59:55] you will commit to disclosing when you have conversations with the president of the United
[1:00:00] States. Senator, I can offer you this assurance. The president has not, before I took this office,
[1:00:07] before I raised my right hand, he has not tried to influence the conduct of monetary policy. And if
[1:00:13] he tried to, I would continue to keep my head down and do the job. I don't have a long record,
[1:00:18] but I've got a seven week record. And before that, I had a 25 year record. And I think that should
[1:00:22] count for something. I appreciate that. I hope you'll just follow the precedent your predecessor.
[1:00:26] Senator Kennedy, the floor is yours. Well, Senator Van Hollen's my buddy. So I don't,
[1:00:35] this is not meant toward him, but I always get a kick out of my democratic friends talking about
[1:00:43] transparency, you know, toward the end. God bless him. You could, you could bake a Thanksgiving turkey
[1:00:54] in the time that it took President Biden to walk across the stage. And they kept it quiet.
[1:01:01] Until they couldn't. I'm sorry he was in that condition, but this transparency stuff
[1:01:09] cuts both ways. What's wrong with you talking to the president of the United States?
[1:01:17] So Senator, I've got a wide lens. I'm interested in hearing points of view from a whole range of
[1:01:22] people. We have a narrow remit. I'm interested what's happening in the world.
[1:01:25] But I mean, is there anything wrong with it? Do you have to, when you do it,
[1:01:29] do you have to like go out and look for the last phone booth in Washington and put a bag over your
[1:01:35] head and sneak in there and call him or return his calls? Anything wrong with that? I certainly don't
[1:01:41] feel uncomfortable receiving a call from the chairman of this committee or the president of the United
[1:01:45] States. Okay. Do you think Ben Bernanke ever talked to the president? When I was a governor,
[1:01:51] I recall several conversations and frequent meetings. How about Alan Greenspan? When I was a young
[1:01:56] staffer in the White House, I remember being honored by him coming into the White House and meeting with
[1:02:01] the president and the president's advisors quite frequently. Okay. I think what would give me
[1:02:08] concern, and I think it's the basis for my colleague's concern, is that you just do whatever
[1:02:15] the president says, but you're not going to do that, are you or are you? Senator, I'm going to call it
[1:02:20] the best I see it. The president never asked me to do anything inappropriate, and if he did,
[1:02:25] I wouldn't do it. Okay. I'm going to follow the law and do my best to follow the remit you gave us.
[1:02:29] Okay. So in the last year or so, recent past, I'll say the Fed cut rates three times because they were
[1:02:36] worried about the labor market. Is that a fair assessment? That's my sense of what they did before
[1:02:41] Mr. Robyn. And it worked. It worked, correct? Well, that's a longer discussion. Well, is the labor
[1:02:47] market in a mess today? The labor market's in good shape, but I wouldn't want to draw the causal connection.
[1:02:53] So I don't have much time, Mr. Chairman. I love you like a taco, but you don't feel a buster on me.
[1:03:02] So it worked. Okay. Now we have inflation. Okay. What caused it in 20 seconds? In 20 seconds,
[1:03:12] inflation is caused when a one-time change in price is broadened out. I know what inflation is.
[1:03:18] And the Federal Reserve. Tell me what caused it. Monetary policy, sir. Okay. Well,
[1:03:23] I would say what is causing it is AI, the conflict with Iran, duh, and probably the residual effect of
[1:03:37] the fact that some imports have become more expensive. Okay. And I think any fair-minded
[1:03:44] person would conclude that. There was a lot of economists said, oh, you know, the impact
[1:03:52] of inflation on the rise of the cost of imports would be a one-shot deal. You know, you can teach
[1:03:57] that one round or flat. I don't know. I think it's probably had a residual effect. Okay. Is it temporary?
[1:04:03] Is it permanent, the inflation? It's not going to be permanent under my watch, Senator. Okay. What are you
[1:04:09] going to do about it? So we're going to do three things. One is for those people in markets that
[1:04:15] think the Fed really was comfortable with a higher level of inflation, we're doing our best to disabuse
[1:04:20] them. Okay. You're going to talk about it. What's the second thing you're going to do? We're going to
[1:04:24] take ownership of it. We're going to say we have the power to do something. Okay. You're going to own it.
[1:04:28] That's right. What's the third thing you're going to do? We're going to look at our tools in the
[1:04:33] changing economy, both balance sheet and interest rate, and see whether we need to adjust policy to take it
[1:04:38] head on. You're going to look at your tools. That's the third thing. I'm not asking you what action the
[1:04:46] Fed's going to take. That would be improper, Mr. Chairman. I wouldn't do that, and you wouldn't tell
[1:04:49] me anyway. Specifically, like you're talking to a 10th grader, okay? What are your options? Leave it
[1:05:04] alone, right? Leave rates alone. Is it one option? That is an option, Senator. Raise rates. Another option.
[1:05:13] Cut rates. A third option. A non-exclusive list of options, but yes. And a lot of it depends on
[1:05:20] whether it's temporary or permanent. So how do you decide whether it's temporary or permanent? I got
[1:05:26] that in with six seconds left. Well done. You use five task forces to get to the big and hard
[1:05:32] questions instead of trying to paper it over with policies that have not been proven as successful.
[1:05:38] Senator Cortez Vasto. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman Marks, good to see you again. Thank you for
[1:05:45] meeting with me. Thank you. You've talked about the task forces. What's the timeline for getting
[1:05:49] reports from the task forces? So I'm not a very patient person. People have said that to do all
[1:05:57] this good work, you'll need years. I gave them six months. Wonderful. Thank you. And that will be made
[1:06:01] public? Yeah. The details, even much of the deliberations, I want to do that in the public square
[1:06:08] because we all own these decisions at the end of the day. Ultimately, decisions will be made by my
[1:06:15] FOMC colleagues. I think they'll start to get briefings on some of the early reports from the
[1:06:20] task force, early indications, hopefully as early as September. With my expectation, hope by year end,
[1:06:26] we're going to hear their conclusions and decide what to do with it. Thank you. And then just for
[1:06:31] clarification, in January of 2025, do you recall the inflation rate? It was about 3%, correct?
[1:06:38] I'm going to have to take your word for the precise number, but I knew inflation was still
[1:06:42] well above target. Yeah, it was about 3%, and that's when Joe Biden left office. And the current
[1:06:47] inflation rate right now is about 3.5%, is that correct? There are various measures. I'm confident
[1:06:53] in telling you it's been above target for 63 months. Is it above 3%? By some measures, by other
[1:07:00] measures, it's not. But I don't want to suggest I'm happy with any of those measures. I'm not.
[1:07:04] Okay, I appreciate it. Let me talk a little bit about an area that is important for me,
[1:07:10] and I think many states that deal with a hospitality tourism industry. Unfortunately, under this
[1:07:18] administration, we've seen significant declines in the number of international visitors to the US.
[1:07:23] The current situation has actually led to our travel trade deficit in this country,
[1:07:29] going from a $51 billion surplus in 2019 to a $72 billion deficit today. How does the Federal
[1:07:40] Reserve governors consider the specific impact of higher unemployment, lower wages, and reduced economic
[1:07:48] activities in communities with large tourism economies like Las Vegas?
[1:07:52] So we are consumers of this information. We are keenly interested in the good side of the economy and
[1:08:00] the services side of the economy. My view, which is not universally shared in the economics profession,
[1:08:07] is that there's no limit to what this economy can grow. Productivity-led growth can move higher,
[1:08:13] and that doesn't tell me it's inflationary. But we care about the services part of the economy,
[1:08:17] and we're trying to take that into account when we try to make decisions about the dual mandate.
[1:08:22] Well, I appreciate that because you're right. Your dual mandate is maintain stable prices and full
[1:08:27] employment. Let me tell you what's happening in the hospitality industry because of the policies of
[1:08:31] this administration. When you talk about full employment, it is not happening. What I am hearing
[1:08:36] from people in my state is that it's not necessarily full employment with good wages and livable wages.
[1:08:44] They're patching together multiple low-wage jobs because they are taking down from full employment
[1:08:50] to part-time employment. Do you consider that in your analysis going from full-time employment to part-time
[1:08:56] and many individuals having several part-time jobs? How do you calculate that into your analysis?
[1:09:01] So we think hard about it. You heard in my opening statement the clear judgment of my colleagues and me,
[1:09:10] which is the labor market broadly looks in balance. But I don't want to make that sound like it's easy for
[1:09:15] hard-working Americans in your state and other places. There's a lot of dynamism happening in the economy.
[1:09:21] There's a lot of structural change. And during periods of transition, it's often true that the labor markets
[1:09:29] in aggregate look better than people feel in different parts. And during disruption,
[1:09:34] they try to recreate a job they had before through the gig economy and other means. We take it into
[1:09:41] account. Overall, I would say the labor market part of our mandate looks pretty good. The price
[1:09:48] stability part of our mandate looks less good. All right. And I am concerned because not just Las Vegas,
[1:09:55] but many tourism-based industries and hospitality, what we're seeing is lower full employment. And I would
[1:10:02] hope, and this is a conversation I've had with previous chairs as well, I would hope that you're
[1:10:07] considering that it is a large sector of employment across the country. And I know you made a statement
[1:10:13] that rise in prices is not necessarily inflationary, correct? At what point do you consider it to be
[1:10:19] inflationary? Is there a timeline associated with that? So when an increase in prices in a particular
[1:10:26] category like oil or like milk or eggs, when we see that broaden out and affect the generalized price
[1:10:32] level, that's something we can do something about. That's what the way I think of inflation.
[1:10:37] When prices go up, I know it hits your constituents every day. I'm not trying to sound dismissive of it,
[1:10:42] but I also don't want to say that there's much that we can do about cattle prices or milk prices today.
[1:10:48] But there's a lot we can do to make sure that the entire grocery aisle doesn't have higher prices.
[1:10:52] And that's what we're committed to do. Thank you. Senator Haggerty. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
[1:10:58] Chairman Warsh on July 18th, almost a year ago today, President Trump signed my legislation,
[1:11:03] the Genius Act into law. A thorough rulemaking process is absolutely vital to ensure that U.S.
[1:11:09] dollar dominance exists here in the digital age. And I look forward to seeing the Federal
[1:11:13] Reserve's ongoing work in this matter. I just want to make that point clear. It's important,
[1:11:17] needs to be done, and very much appreciate the Fed's attention to it. I want to turn now,
[1:11:20] though, to a broader concern. And that has to do with the independence of monetary policy. You've
[1:11:25] had a number of conversations with my colleagues about this. I want to emphasize something that I
[1:11:29] think is quite important. The special insulation that the Fed receives with regard to monetary policy,
[1:11:37] I think as far as I'm concerned, it shouldn't extend to every other function of what the Fed does.
[1:11:42] I think it should be limited to monetary policy. For example, you think about bank regulations and
[1:11:48] supervision. That's entirely distinct from monetary policy. Regulation requires normative policy
[1:11:54] judgments about capital, about credit availability, about risk, economic growth, the structure of the
[1:11:59] banking system. All of these considerations need to roll into it. And you think about what's happened
[1:12:04] in recent years, regulation has even strayed far afield. You think about what's happened with respect
[1:12:09] to climate policy, or Michael Barr's failed Basel III proposal. These decisions are not the same as
[1:12:16] setting interest rates or managing the Fed's balance sheet. And quite simply, I think they're
[1:12:21] forms of executive regulatory power. The Supreme Court has clarified, for example, that the FDIC
[1:12:26] is subject to ordinary principles of executive accountability. Comparable regulatory functions
[1:12:31] that the Fed shouldn't be held to a different standard, in my view, simply because they sit within
[1:12:35] the central bank. So my question is this, Mr. Chairman, do you agree that the Federal Reserve's
[1:12:40] independence should be narrowly tied to its monetary mandate? Senator, thank you for the question.
[1:12:47] Like you said, independence is at its peak in the conduct of monetary policy. I believe that when I
[1:12:53] showed up at the Fed in 2006, I believed that my confirmation hearing seven or eight weeks ago,
[1:12:59] I believe it now. In the conduct of bank and regulatory policy on things like the Genius Act,
[1:13:06] my general view is we should be working with our bank regulators, the other bank regulators,
[1:13:12] the OCC and the FDIC, see if we can't put out our rules together. What I don't think we want is any
[1:13:17] kind of regulatory arbitrage where firms are trying to game who's got the lightest regulation and race
[1:13:23] there. I don't think there's anything wrong with us working together with other bank regulators to try
[1:13:28] to figure out what's the best policy. I've got some extraordinary colleagues at the Fed. They've been able
[1:13:33] think hard about these issues. I think those discussions should happen and do happen.
[1:13:37] I disagree at all with that. And I like I like your approach in terms of coordination,
[1:13:41] but there's something deeper that I'm concerned about, Mr. Chairman. And that is then just make
[1:13:45] make an example. Let's suppose a future Congress decides to embed some sort of regulatory function
[1:13:52] inside the Fed seeking to insulate it from our supervision, from our oversight. In some way,
[1:13:58] that could become a backdoor that I don't think any of us want to see. And what I'm trying to
[1:14:02] make clear is that beyond monetary policy, you know, I'm just I'll ask you the question,
[1:14:08] do you think that this special installation applies to other regulatory and supervisory types of
[1:14:12] functions? So I spent eight weeks as a summer associate law firm, so I'm probably not best
[1:14:18] best position to to opine on the Supreme Court. Senator Warren could do a better job than I. I do recall
[1:14:24] in the most recent opinion a footnote from the majority that says we are not suggesting that if other
[1:14:31] things went to the Federal Reserve, it would it would get any insulation. Beyond that, I'm on shaky
[1:14:37] ground and trying to opine on what the Supreme Court opinion means perspective. I wasn't looking
[1:14:42] for your legal opinion. But I do just think as a matter of common sense, I wanted to get that on
[1:14:45] the record that there is a real distinction here. And I appreciate that. I'm going to turn to another
[1:14:52] important matter. And that's the monetary policy report that that that you work with the most recent
[1:14:58] monetary policy report added a new aggregate to the to the measurements, the M2 aggregate. And I just
[1:15:04] wanted to ask you to explain why this metric is useful and why why it's been added. Thank you,
[1:15:09] Senator. That was an Easter egg that we hid in there to see if anyone read these monetary policy
[1:15:14] reports. So I'm encouraged that you did. There is there are there is almost a page talking about M2 and
[1:15:21] monetary aggregates that was done with a purpose. I do not show up here as a monetarist. I do not show
[1:15:30] up and say the secret to inflation is if we only knew M2, everything would be swell. But monetary
[1:15:37] aggregates had been taken out of the monetary policy report probably about a decade ago, maybe a bit
[1:15:42] longer. My view is that a modern central banker should have a mosaic of information and should not be
[1:15:48] allergic to any data that happens to be inconsistent with dogma that he or she might have been taught in
[1:15:54] econ one. I have this old fashioned view that monetary policy has something to do with money.
[1:16:02] I remember an old professor of mine that said who was a proper Keynesian economist, he said,
[1:16:08] well, I don't understand how to how to think about inflation in a place like Zimbabwe without talking
[1:16:14] about money. So I think money matters. What we witnessed when we looked at some of the monetary
[1:16:20] aggregates is they are not perfect. We don't measure money very well. We don't measure the velocity of
[1:16:24] money very well. But it's a pretty good crosscheck. And had we seen the surge and paid attention to the
[1:16:30] surge in inflation and money in 21-22, we might have seen this problem sooner. I apologize. Senator Smith.
[1:16:38] Thank you, Mr. Chair and Ranking Member. Chair Warsh, welcome to the committee.
[1:16:43] So you may know that Minnesota Senator Hubert Humphrey, who's once held the seat that I now
[1:16:50] occupy for Minnesota, led the charge in Congress to include maximum employment as part of the Fed's
[1:16:57] dual mandate. And we can probably agree that keeping these two goals of maximum employment and stable
[1:17:03] prices within the confines of the monetary policy power that the Fed wields, that just makes sense
[1:17:10] because it's a strategy that delivers stable prices. You know, a strategy, excuse me, a strategy that
[1:17:16] delivers stable prices while working people can't find jobs or can't afford their lives. I mean,
[1:17:22] that's not a healthy economy. I expect you to agree with that. And I do. Thank you. So I was very
[1:17:27] interested in the task forces that you established last month to advise you on reform and modernization.
[1:17:34] And I want to just ask you about one of them particular. You've created a task force looking
[1:17:39] at productivity and jobs. And that's really good, it seems to me. This task force should be able to
[1:17:46] get at the power of the Fed's dual mandate and ask also some of the big questions that everyone is
[1:17:51] asking about the power and the impact of AI on wages and people's income and employment. So let me just
[1:18:00] ask about this particular task force on productivity and jobs. So as I understand it, it is led by three
[1:18:07] people. I'm venture capitalist and investor Mark Andreessen, who's made billions from AI and is a major
[1:18:13] Trump donor. I'm another tech executive who recently laid off thousands of people and then an academic
[1:18:19] economist from my alma mater, Stanford University, who is currently on leave to do research at Anthropic.
[1:18:27] So I want to ask about this. Is there anyone on the task force who has experience in the labor market
[1:18:35] or somebody who can bring the perspective of an employer rather than an investor to the questions
[1:18:42] that are going to be asked and hopefully answered by this task force? So if I could say two things,
[1:18:48] one is those three people you referenced are three of the smartest people that I know. And I've been
[1:18:54] I'm not disputing that. I'm wondering how you intend to bring into this work the perspective of people
[1:19:02] who are working people, bring in the perspective of labor and not just investors. I think it's a fair
[1:19:08] question. I've got 18 colleagues who are going to join me and consume the deliberations they have in
[1:19:14] the report. And we're the ones that have the dual mandate. And as I said to your colleague, there is no
[1:19:19] disfavored part of our mandate. And we're awfully focused on full employment. So that's my commitment
[1:19:26] to you. We haven't outsourced this decision to three people. We've outsourced to is a bunch of
[1:19:30] thinking about this massive technology shock. And I'll only note one other thing. Chad Jones,
[1:19:36] that professor that you mentioned, his academic work, he's an academic, I'll admit that. But I'm not
[1:19:41] opposed to that. I'm just trying to. But his academic work has been very, very focused on what is the
[1:19:47] effect of the labor markets of these technology shocks, both the good and the bad. And I think
[1:19:52] that history he can bring to bear to the work of the task force. So can you can you understand why
[1:19:58] a task force that is led by people in large part who are likely to get richer by AI might not be the
[1:20:06] most credible people to folks on the ground who are doing the work who are worried about what impact this
[1:20:13] AI is going to have on their jobs? And there's the concern, of course, is that the the productivity
[1:20:19] that is expected to be delivered by AI, if that actually happens, that the benefits of that productivity
[1:20:25] are going to accrue to capital and not to labor. And that it seems to me the credibility of this task
[1:20:32] force rests on hearing the perspective of working folks in in their deliberation. To take both parts
[1:20:40] of our dual mandate in consideration of their output. I think the issues, sir, their output. I think the
[1:20:45] issues, sir, is that when there are the big guys sitting at the table, is there anybody sitting at the
[1:20:52] table who's bringing the perspective of working people to those really important questions? There are
[1:20:56] labor leaders, there are labor economists, they are folks that whose expertise is in issues around
[1:21:02] wage stagnation and how that impacts working people. And I would ask you to consider bringing
[1:21:07] that perspective, not to be heard on the side, but to be actually at the table with the with the big guys.
[1:21:14] I think that is a credibility issue that you could address very easily. Thank you, Mr. Chair.
[1:21:19] Thank you, Senator. Good morning. Good morning. I think you're doing a great job today. I appreciate your
[1:21:29] composure. Mr. Warsh, a quick question on just immigration. You know, some people are proudly
[1:21:38] discussing how we had almost net zero immigration in the last quarter, but we're starting to look a
[1:21:47] little bit like China, Japan, European countries in terms of our replacement rate, in terms of a
[1:21:54] natural replacement rate. So if net immigration were to remain near zero for an extended period,
[1:22:02] how would that change your estimates on GDP, the neutral interest rate, and the amount of
[1:22:08] non-inflationary job growth the economy can sustain? And in some ways it touches on, I think, Senator
[1:22:14] Cortez Mastos, this population growth problem. If we don't, these are policies, then how does that make
[1:22:23] your job more difficult if we were to sustain the current trajectory? The way those decisions affect us
[1:22:28] is it affects potential GDP. The biggest, hardest decision we make is what can this economy produce?
[1:22:35] How fast can we grow? Potential GDP is a function of two things. How many hours are we working? People in
[1:22:43] this country working. But just in a word, because I want to ask a few other questions. And then second,
[1:22:47] productivity. If the worker hours are constant, we need a productivity boom. Just a real quick
[1:22:53] question. Would you be thrilled to know that we could guarantee zero net growth for the next decade,
[1:22:58] because that would make your job easier? We're going to take the number of hours the American people
[1:23:04] and your policies produce, and we're going to do it the best we can. We got a problem. You can't fix it.
[1:23:09] But what I'm saying is if we're trying to make your job easier, having this on the agenda is not going
[1:23:14] to make your job easier. And I understand the position you have to take. But I want to point to
[1:23:19] something that people are high-fiving and talking about net zero immigration growth as if it's a good
[1:23:25] thing. It's only a good thing if you want to repeat the mistakes of Western Europe, Japan, China, and other
[1:23:30] nations that didn't get their replacement rate right. You know, bringing in great people that may have been
[1:23:35] born in Columbia and aspire to become a senator, for example, those sorts of things.
[1:23:42] I mean, you didn't get it right every time, but no. And Mr. Warsh, I told you also,
[1:23:50] and just for the American people, do you have a magic wand where you can just walk in and
[1:23:54] convince seven people of the FOMC to vote exactly the way you want them to?
[1:23:59] Perhaps I wish I do, but I do not have such a wand.
[1:24:02] So you are one of a body where you have to gain consensus to make an interest rate move,
[1:24:08] right? Monetary policy move, right? Yes, and it's a consensus-led organization.
[1:24:13] And based on some of the comments from even
[1:24:16] Governor Waller, who we'd consider to be pretty hawkish just this week, he's not guaranteeing
[1:24:22] that we're going to be able to lower interest rates anytime soon based on data-driven decisions.
[1:24:27] Did that just occur this week in a speech, I think, up in New York?
[1:24:30] There are a diversity of views. I wouldn't want to dwell on any one of them in particular.
[1:24:34] No, it's okay. But what I've tried to explain to people who think the president can give you a call,
[1:24:38] you make a decision, it happens, that never happens. Wouldn't have happened under Powell,
[1:24:42] wouldn't happen under you, wouldn't happen under anybody who's responsible chairman.
[1:24:48] I just wanted to make that point. The last thing, if you could just tell me,
[1:24:51] I know you don't want to get in. I think Senator Britt asked you some questions.
[1:24:55] I love the fact that you're doing reform. I would like to see the program,
[1:24:58] the project charter for the task forces, if you have that, if people are managing this,
[1:25:03] milestones, any sort of dashboard you have, the things that any well-put-together set of task
[1:25:09] forces would have assembled for a six-month project. I'd like to just track it. Not necessarily for the
[1:25:15] record, but if you could commit to have a meeting with the people running it with me, I'd like to
[1:25:19] see that just to watch the mechanics play out over the next six months.
[1:25:22] And then lastly, if you can, I believe Silicon Valley Bank is a classic example of why the Fed
[1:25:33] needs to have its independence on monetary policy, but on bank examination and supervision. I believe
[1:25:38] a U.S. senator should minimally be able to go into a SCIF and understand why banks like Silicon Valley
[1:25:45] Bank had multiple matters requiring attention and then matters requiring immediate attention well
[1:25:52] before they failed. And nobody knew except some examiner and likely people in San Francisco,
[1:25:59] in the San Francisco Fed. That stuff has got to change. I don't see any rational basis for that
[1:26:05] independence. And we've got some legislation I'd like to talk with you about. Thank you, Mr. Chair.
[1:26:09] Thank you. The chair recognizes Mr. Warnock. Well, thank you so very much, Madam Chair. The American
[1:26:25] economy is heavily leveraged on the success of artificial intelligence. And this is an issue that
[1:26:33] I'm very interested in, been engaging and talking to folks in the industry and folks outside of the
[1:26:39] industry, various stakeholders. According to a Bloomberg analysis, AI spending most recently climbed to
[1:26:45] about 8% of the U.S. gross domestic product, driving the country's economic growth. Chair Walsh, you have
[1:26:54] long been bullish on AI. However, up to now, despite investors betting big on them, none of the major AI
[1:27:03] models have been meaningfully profitable. What are the consequences to our economy if none of these
[1:27:10] companies ever become profitable? So if they were to disappoint investors, I think the capital markets would
[1:27:19] dry up for them and some of that capital investment would be curtailed. I guess that's one way of
[1:27:27] putting it. I guess I'm getting at where ordinary folks are in the midst of that. The markets behind
[1:27:35] the markets are real people, you know, who have retirement savings and who are trying to make their
[1:27:42] present as well as their future work. American retirement accounts are increasingly tied to AI.
[1:27:50] And so there's the human issue driven by massive increases in the stock prices of chip and AI
[1:27:59] companies. You might talk about the current markets and it was sort of as it's tall and narrow. Let's
[1:28:07] imagine if we are in an AI bubble, an AI bubble, what would happen to our economy and more specifically
[1:28:16] Americans retirement savings if that bubble popped? So I think it's a fair question, Senator. I take it
[1:28:24] seriously. I'm not in the business of providing a Wall Street newsletter, but I'll say broadly to your
[1:28:30] question about the effects on the economy. Booms and busts do not help the real economy and they
[1:28:37] don't make the central bank's job easier. What the central bank is trying to achieve is price stability,
[1:28:43] full employment, all in the context of financial stability. On the question of these AI companies,
[1:28:49] certainly the surge in their investment and the surge in their valuations is notable. But I'll also
[1:28:56] note one of the things, Senator. Over the course of the last couple of months, we've seen the market
[1:29:01] cap both of the public companies and of private companies under some pressure. At the overall indices,
[1:29:08] we do seem to see a broadening out. Now, why is that? Because earnings now for the last several quarters
[1:29:14] more broadly are moving up. I don't want to suggest that that should give us any complacency. But what
[1:29:20] the Fed's looking for is economic strength to broaden and the inflation that we talked about earlier to
[1:29:27] become more narrow. So I'd be worried about a massive economic slowdown, you know, the impact of Wall
[1:29:39] Street on Main Street, and I'd be worried about job losses. Stock prices tumbling would mean Americans
[1:29:46] could not retire as planned. And I don't want to see taxpayers holding the bag should this AI bubble pop.
[1:29:55] I'm not against AI. AI is not going anywhere. It has both promise and peril. I just want us to be
[1:30:01] thinking critically about this from all angles. Earlier this month, you announced a new task force
[1:30:08] to assess the effect of AI on productivity and jobs. The three individuals you chose for the task force
[1:30:16] are tech executives who have directly worked for or with AI labs, all three of them. Yes or no,
[1:30:24] will the Fed include anyone on this task force with an alternative viewpoint on AI? For example,
[1:30:32] anyone who represents the workers whose lives may be upended by increased adoption of AI tools and
[1:30:39] technology? So Senator, it's a fair question. As I mentioned to your colleague a few moments ago,
[1:30:45] what I'd say is one of the people on those task force is an academic. Now, I don't want to suggest
[1:30:50] that the academic is representing some- You don't want to suggest that the academic
[1:30:56] is being academic? I don't want to suggest that, but this isn't a faculty lounge discussion. What I do
[1:31:01] want to suggest is that academics work has spent a lot of time talking about prior technology shocks
[1:31:07] and the displacement that it has on labor. The assurance I can give you is that these three people on that
[1:31:13] task force like the other task forces, they're not the deciders. You're talking to one of the deciders.
[1:31:18] Right. The 19 of us around the FOMC with a breadth of backgrounds and interest,
[1:31:23] we're going to decide what we think of their conclusions. As a decision maker, I always want
[1:31:28] various viewpoints. I certainly have nothing against an academic expertise. I think, you know,
[1:31:34] that that's important and it's too often ignored in some of the appointments that we've seen around here
[1:31:40] lately. But here's my problem. Americans are worried about what AI will be with the economy.
[1:31:44] I'm wrapping up, sir. And I'm worried that this viewpoint isn't represented
[1:31:49] at the Fed and I would look to broaden. Senator Lummis, your time is yours.
[1:31:53] Thank you so much. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and welcome, Mr. Chairman.
[1:31:59] I have a couple of questions about bank supervision before we go to monetary policy. The first one is
[1:32:06] Vice Chair Bowman has ordered an independent review of the supervision of Silicon Bank and signature
[1:32:15] banks. And I think that's a really good thing. I applaud her and support her efforts there. So
[1:32:22] have you instructed your staff, including the attorneys in the legal division, to cooperate with
[1:32:30] this independent review? Yeah. So thank you, Senator Lummis. This call for a review,
[1:32:37] of what happened around Silicon Valley Bank preceded my time at the Fed. But I'm certainly aware of the
[1:32:43] ongoing investigation. And my general rule is that we should be cooperative, do investigations,
[1:32:51] and we should try to get to the bottom of the facts on regulatory and supervisory issues.
[1:32:57] You know, there are rumors that there may have been destruction of records
[1:33:03] records by some of the staff at the Division of Bank Supervision. And of course, that's a crime.
[1:33:12] So if records relating to the supervision of these banks were intentionally deleted by staff before you
[1:33:21] were at the Fed, before you ever became chairman, will you order your staff to assist in recovery of
[1:33:28] these records and cooperate with law enforcement? Yeah. So I made a bold statement to one of your
[1:33:34] colleagues before that I was opposed to scams. I can make a bold statement I'm opposed to criminal
[1:33:38] activity. I have no reason to believe there's any criminal activity here. But I think we want to get
[1:33:43] to the bottom of of an investigation. If there's an ongoing investigation and investigators generally
[1:33:50] want access to things, there's no reason why they shouldn't have access. Thank you. I want to turn
[1:33:57] to a proposed rule that is being considered and ask for your thoughts on the proposed rule. And it has to
[1:34:06] do with the Federal Reserve Board's payment accounts. Skinny master accounts is kind of a term that's used.
[1:34:15] You know, my staff has told me that if a doctor submits statements to an insurance company, they have
[1:34:26] two choices. They can pay five percent in bank fees or wait 90 to 120 days for a paper check. It seems to me
[1:34:37] that the Federal Reserve is really on to something by trying to join other countries
[1:34:45] that restrict access to the payment system to consumer facing banks. We're the only major country
[1:34:58] in the world that restricts access to the payment system to the consumer facing banks. So I think
[1:35:06] the you're on the right track to expand the opportunities to serve consumers. And I'm curious
[1:35:15] about what your thoughts are about the proposal, how it's going, when you expect the rule to be
[1:35:22] finalized. Yeah. So as I understand it, this skinnier account, skinnier master account proposals out for
[1:35:29] comment. It was sent out before I arrived, but I'm keenly interested in what the comments are. My mental
[1:35:36] model is that the critical infrastructure, the rails that the Fed runs should be available to those that are
[1:35:44] applicable, that can comply with our rules and regulations. If I were to draw a hard distinction,
[1:35:50] this is a public good, and it's a public good that should be used by intermediaries. I don't want
[1:35:56] the public good to be used by consumers, by people that are on the front lines. But if financial
[1:36:02] institutions, new and old, want to comply with our regulations and take advantage of this public good,
[1:36:08] my general predilection is to encourage it. Well, I think that's admirable and important.
[1:36:15] So it's out for comment now. Do you anticipate finalizing sometime this year?
[1:36:21] I owe you a better answer on the timeline from here, and I pledge to give it to you.
[1:36:26] Thank you. Thank you.
[1:36:27] Thank you.
[1:36:28] I share a concern that was expressed by my colleague, Mr. Haggerty, that monetary policy
[1:36:36] should enjoy the committee not having to be as transparent about its process.
[1:36:48] Yes. I agree with Senator Haggerty also that the bank supervision component should not enjoy that same
[1:36:57] level of non-scrutiny. I think we need to scrutinize bank supervision. I'm concerned that
[1:37:05] that area was sort of hidden from public view for too long. And so I want to just echo what Mr. Haggerty
[1:37:13] said. Thanks, Mr. Chairman. Yes, ma'am. Senator Kim. Yeah, thank you, Chairman. And
[1:37:18] Chairman, thank you for coming on out. I actually wanted to build on something that Senator Warnock
[1:37:22] was going into about AI. And I guess I wanted to ask you, you know, I've seen some public reporting
[1:37:29] that there was a report produced by Treasury staff for Secretary Bess in the Federal Reserve and other
[1:37:36] financial regulators that outlines the risks associated with the AI boom. Are you familiar
[1:37:43] with this report? I can't say that I've read that report, but it's certainly a discussion that the
[1:37:49] Secretary and I have had. Is that something we can follow up on, get a sense of where the status of
[1:37:55] this report is? Yeah, I'd be happy to both engage in the report and share with you my views. Yeah. But,
[1:38:00] you know, regardless of the report itself, from what I understand, it's raising concerns that
[1:38:08] that much of our financial system right now rests upon AI meeting expectations for protected
[1:38:14] productivity gains as profitability and as well as raising concerns about the concentration
[1:38:21] in a small number of firms that are heavily reliant on private market financing,
[1:38:27] specifically invested in data centers in particular. I want to just get a sense. Do you agree with these
[1:38:32] underlining economic risks or do you believe that that analysis is overstating the risks?
[1:38:39] So I think this is the most important change in our economy in my adult lifetime. I think it has
[1:38:46] plenty of opportunities and also plenty of risks and I take both of them seriously.
[1:38:50] Yeah, I mean, it's something I'm trying to grapple with too. So, you know, I'm not expecting that you
[1:38:54] have a fully baked answer right now, but I hope we can work on this together. Because I do think when we're
[1:38:59] looking at that future, trying to think through the data, I'm trying to think through what data is
[1:39:04] going to allow us to understand how exposed we are, you know, what the concerns are. And I guess
[1:39:09] I would just ask you as you're looking at the data, how would you assess our economy, the state of our
[1:39:15] economy, if you were to isolate out AI? You know, which I know is driving so much of our growth right
[1:39:21] now. How is the rest of our economy doing? So it's a fair question. We can start to
[1:39:26] do a little bit of that. So I mentioned in my opening statement, the importance of capital
[1:39:31] expenditures to aggregate GDP. A good share of that CapEx boom is broadly in around infrastructure
[1:39:39] related artificial intelligence. Not exclusively, but it's part of the real story here. If I were to
[1:39:47] fast forward 12 months, whether these AI models continue to grow in their efficacy on some exponential
[1:39:54] curve or not, most of this CapEx is going into things like data centers, new sources of energy.
[1:40:00] And let's say there was a disappointment on the returns and what AI could do. Many of these
[1:40:05] investments have alternative uses. But if the if the question is really how much productivity do we
[1:40:13] expect to ultimately get from AI? The answer is I don't know. But I'm optimistic that over a longer time
[1:40:20] horizon, it'll be quite good for the United States and good for both parts of the dual mandate, lower
[1:40:25] prices and a stronger labor force. Well, I hope we can work on this together and try to get a clearer
[1:40:32] understanding of just how much risk there is. And look, I'm glad to hear about this, you know, this task
[1:40:38] force that you're putting together about the productivity side. I will just say the concern amongst
[1:40:44] young people in particular is very potent and very real. And and we we we have to come up with an
[1:40:52] answer to them to help them feel reassured right now because I get it. They are, as you said, more
[1:40:58] native in the technology. But that doesn't necessarily help them when the companies themselves are saying
[1:41:04] we don't need to hire as many, you know, junior associates or or or, you know, or other jobs,
[1:41:11] especially on the entry, more entry level side of things, no matter how much native fluency that
[1:41:16] they have or tech or or understanding and skills, if the businesses are saying, you know, we don't need
[1:41:22] as many people at the younger lower end. And so as you're dealing with this task force, I hope it's
[1:41:28] something that can interact with this committee. I hope we have a chance to be able to talk to some of
[1:41:32] them and hear from them in that capacity. But I also say, you know, we need to make sure we're speaking human
[1:41:39] about this and not just getting kind of caught up in this. I just wanted to flag that for you.
[1:41:44] One last thing I wanted to just touch base on is, you know, Senator Reid mentioned the concerns about
[1:41:52] whatever we want to call a mythos proofing or AI proofing using AI to be able to shore up our
[1:41:57] vulnerabilities. You know, we've a number of us have been talking to some of the financial sector, other
[1:42:02] critical infrastructure. I guess I just want to ask you, does it does the Fed have all it needs
[1:42:06] to be able to kind of shore up our vulnerabilities, patch up any vulnerabilities? Has that been a
[1:42:13] process that you all feel have confidence in so far? Also to a yes or no answer. Yeah, I'm working
[1:42:19] on it. And I look forward to working with you on it as well. Let us know how we can help. Yeah. Thank
[1:42:22] you. Senator Moreno. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you to you, Chairman Warsh for being here.
[1:42:28] It is such a pleasure to have you here compared to your predecessor. I can't explain to you in words
[1:42:36] the feelings that I had when your predecessor testified versus the feelings of having you here.
[1:42:40] So truly appreciate the hard work. So quick questions. You obviously take we have a whole
[1:42:46] regulatory structure around banks. What's happened to deposits in American banks since last August?
[1:42:53] Have they gone up, stayed the same or gone down? Generally speaking, there are differences, but
[1:42:57] generally speaking, deposits held in banks is moving positively over that period. And you worry about
[1:43:03] that. Of course, you watch that because if you had a massive deposit flight, that would be a problem,
[1:43:06] correct? I worry about it. But I also use it as a helpful input. When average deposit balances are up,
[1:43:13] sometimes that could be for good or bad reasons. My sense of the underlying growth
[1:43:17] is more good than bad. Right. But as a banker, the bankers want deposits to go up. They sure do.
[1:43:23] And I just find that interesting as a data point, Mr. Chairman, because we've talked about,
[1:43:27] well, we've had testimony anecdotally from the bank CEOs saying that stable coins were going to drop
[1:43:35] deposits in banks. And I just want to point out for the record that the exact opposite has happened.
[1:43:41] So as they say, that was a bunch of blankety blank argument. Okay. You have two mandates. Let's talk
[1:43:48] about full employment for a second. If we have incentives that we put in place here legislatively
[1:43:56] for Americans not to work. Does that round counter to your objective of full employment?
[1:44:01] It doesn't make doesn't make the feds life any easier. Right. So we say if we actually incentivize
[1:44:07] somebody from actually participating and being productive in the workforce, that's not good.
[1:44:12] Things like, for example, we did the working families tax cuts last year, which is to put in
[1:44:17] place where you have to verify twice a year whether you're working, volunteering, or studying would be a
[1:44:23] positive demotivator for not working, correct? Meaning it encourages work.
[1:44:28] I can't opine on the policies you make, but for the implications of the Fed, we're in the business
[1:44:34] of assessing potential growth. The more hours that are worked and the more productive those hours are,
[1:44:40] the stronger the economy can be. Which is good when you're mandated. And if you had tens of millions of
[1:44:46] people entering the country illegally, it makes your challenge of full employment more difficult also,
[1:44:52] correct? I'm going to steer clear from immigration policy and leave it with you and the administration.
[1:44:57] So pretend they're just naturally grown humans on the soil of America. If you have dramatically more
[1:45:04] humans in the United States looking for work, by definition, it makes full employment more difficult,
[1:45:09] correct? So if those people are employed and are working and are productive, that's a good thing. No,
[1:45:16] if they're not employed. Well, that can be a challenge to one, if not both parts of our mandate.
[1:45:23] Okay, let's talk about data centers really quick. So if you felt where the Federal Reserve felt that data center
[1:45:29] investment was driving inflation, what is the tool that you could use to combat that? So I think that investment in data
[1:45:41] centers and in AI generally do affect the demand side of the economy. And we can see it and we can
[1:45:47] see prices move up. But unlike some of these other shocks with a lag, it also affects the supply side.
[1:45:52] No, but what I'm saying is if you felt that you had to do something about it, would it be accurate to
[1:45:56] say really, you don't have a lot of tools? I think some of my colleagues think that you do have a magic wand.
[1:46:02] But ultimately, you'd have to raise interest rates. The idea would be you're going to make it more expensive
[1:46:07] to borrow money to build these things. Ultimately, that's basically the tool that you have,
[1:46:11] just roughly speaking, correct? We have powerful tools to deal with what we deem to be
[1:46:17] inflation above target. Right. So you would raise interest rates if you really is the tool that you'd
[1:46:22] use. Does it make any sense for us to be thinking that inflation is being caused by data center investment?
[1:46:29] And the answer would be to look to the Fed to raise interest rates, when in reality, you have government
[1:46:34] that's providing tax subsidies, which is lowering the cost and thus encouraging more irrational
[1:46:40] investment. Doesn't it make more sense to say, let's not do any tax subsidies? Now, we can't do that
[1:46:47] here at the federal level, because a lot of these subsidies are coming from cities, counties and states.
[1:46:51] I actually believe, I think, Chairman, we should think about providing 100 percent federal tax
[1:46:56] on these subsidies, so that if a company wants to take subsidies from some state, tax it at the
[1:47:03] federal level 100 percent to discourage it. Because I think it is absolutely insanity for us to use
[1:47:08] taxpayer dollars to subsidize multi-billion dollar companies. And by the way, those incentives don't
[1:47:12] exist. Would you agree that that seems reasonable? Fiscal policy is your decision. I'm going to let you
[1:47:19] guys fight that one out. Good. Early. Thank you. Senator Alson Rose. All right. Thank you so much,
[1:47:27] Chair Scott and Ranking Member Warren for holding today's hearing. And Chairman Warsh, it's good to see
[1:47:33] you again. Before we talk about the economy, I want to briefly return to your confirmation hearing.
[1:47:40] We're under questioning from Senator Gallego and myself. You said that the president never, quote,
[1:47:46] generally or specifically instructed you to lower interest rates. And your testimony at the time
[1:47:52] did contradict reporting by the Wall Street Journal. So Senator Gallego and I sent you a letter on April
[1:47:58] 26th clarifying your testimony. And we have we have not yet received a response. So as you as we stated
[1:48:06] in our letter, President Trump told the Wall Street Journal that he thinks you have to lower his quote
[1:48:12] was he thinks you have to lower interest rates. And under your sworn testimony in this committee,
[1:48:17] you said that the president never generally or specifically instructed you on interest rates.
[1:48:22] And so I wonder whether you will just commit to responding to our letter. Sure. I I stand by
[1:48:29] every word that I said at my confirmation hearing. And now I have a seven week track record subsequent to
[1:48:35] that. And you can judge not just my words, but my actions. And I'm happy to continue the discussion
[1:48:41] with you about this topic. If you think it's it's fruitful. I will say I've spent seven weeks doing
[1:48:46] a lot of hard business of reform, but I'm happy to continue to engage. Okay. And you will respond
[1:48:51] to the letter that Senator Gallego and I sent to you. I'm happy to find the letter. I think it came to
[1:48:58] me before I was confirmed to the Fed. I'm happy to to find it and and and work with you and and your
[1:49:04] colleagues and answer any questions you have. Okay. Thank you. Now, federal governor Christopher Waller
[1:49:09] recently announced a framework to radically transform the Fed systems of 12 regional reserve
[1:49:17] banks and Congress deliberately created a centralized system of 12 regional banks to ensure that regional
[1:49:23] economies and communities are represented when the Fed makes consequential decisions. The Federal
[1:49:29] Reserve Bank of Richmond, which serves Maryland, employs over 100 of my constituents at the bank's
[1:49:34] Baltimore branch. And I share our ranking members concerned that these changes are being pursued
[1:49:40] without consideration of Congress. And so do you agree that regional presidents and board directors
[1:49:45] are responsible for day to day operations under the Federal Reserve Act and not the Federal Reserve
[1:49:50] Board in Washington? So I I love the structure of the Board of Governors and the Reserve Banks
[1:49:57] in the Federal Reserve Act. And I love the Humphrey Hawkins testimony. I am obligated to do to give it to
[1:50:03] you as the Federal Reserve Act makes clear, as you know, is the Reserve Banks run operations and their
[1:50:11] budgets are reviewed and approved by approved by the Board of Governors. With respect more broadly to the
[1:50:17] proposal you suggested, I think we we need to try to do two things at the same time. Be good stewards of taxpayer
[1:50:24] money and continue to drive efficiencies throughout the system. And at the same time, respect the
[1:50:30] independence of the Reserve Banks so that they can show up in Washington at an FOMC meeting and feel
[1:50:36] as though they have the resources at their disposal to argue their point of view. My addition to the to
[1:50:43] what's already been said publicly is my view is the 12 Reserve Banks should be 12 centers of excellence.
[1:50:49] And if there is some savings that we're necessarily driving through consolidation of
[1:50:54] overlapping functions, they should at the same time be able to build out capabilities and solve
[1:51:00] any of a number of problems of economic policy that are inside of our remit. I've encouraged the 12
[1:51:05] Reserve Banks to think about what they could do to have a center of excellence. So Mr. Chair,
[1:51:09] so you your answer is yes, you do agree that the regional presidents and board directors are
[1:51:14] responsible for day to day operations under that act. I do believe that subject to the oversight of the
[1:51:20] board of governors and the statute. Okay, just one last question. You've suggested that artificial
[1:51:25] intelligence will generate productivity gains that will reduce inflation and help lower interest rates.
[1:51:31] And I'm optimistic as well about the promise of AI, but we need to be really clear-eyed, I think,
[1:51:37] in considering the the whole economy and the impact there. The Fed has two mandates, a low inflation and
[1:51:43] maximum employment. And you've spoken often about AI's impact on prices and inflation, but inflation is
[1:51:49] still high. So it's important that the Fed also addresses the employment piece of this mandate and
[1:51:54] just as urgently the Fed should consider who benefits from AI. So some economic models for AI as economic
[1:52:03] effects foresee gigantic returns for capital holders, but stagnant wages and job losses for workers. So as it
[1:52:10] relates to AI, what specifically is the Fed doing studying or preparing for under your maximum
[1:52:17] employment mandate? So I endorse both parts of the dual mandate, and I don't want to suggest that
[1:52:23] productivity and the AI wave only impacts one part of it. We've got no legislative orphans,
[1:52:30] and I think that the effect on the labor markets is real and something we're thinking long and hard about
[1:52:35] short-term, medium-term, and long-term. Okay, thank you. Senator Banks. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
[1:52:40] Chairman Warsh, welcome back to the committee for the first time as the chairman of the Federal
[1:52:46] Reserve. I was proud to vote for your confirmation back in May, and it's great to have you come back.
[1:52:50] I understand we do this on the committee, Mr. Chairman, twice a year. I'm looking forward to
[1:52:55] continued dialogues with you and before this committee for many years to come. You're very
[1:53:00] familiar with my state, Indiana. We've talked about Indiana a great deal. There's no state in America that
[1:53:06] has a stronger manufacturing base than Indiana. Manufacturing jobs are the biggest share of our
[1:53:14] workforce and our state and accounts for about a quarter of our state's economy. For decades, though,
[1:53:20] policymakers here in Washington have turned a blind eye as foreign countries erode our manufacturing base
[1:53:28] and rely on artificially cheap labor. But under President Trump,
[1:53:32] we have a renewed focus on fighting back and protecting America's manufacturing edge. In addition
[1:53:40] to President Trump's tariffs, we are helping American companies compete against foreign competition by
[1:53:46] investing in new technologies that help American workers make better quality goods more efficiently than
[1:53:53] countries that rely on cheap labor. Mr. Chairman, business investment in the U.S. is surging right now.
[1:54:00] Fixed investment grew at a rate of 10.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026. Can you talk more about
[1:54:08] that and about how rising investment in new technologies like AI and robotics can strengthen
[1:54:14] America's competitive position against the rest of the world, especially when it comes to manufacturing?
[1:54:20] So thank you, Senator Banks. The CapEx surge is remarkable. This is a CapEx investment boom
[1:54:27] that the country hasn't seen in more than a generation. It is the seed corn for productivity and GDP
[1:54:36] improvement over the next decade. The way these waves typically go historically, which doesn't mean
[1:54:42] it has to happen this time, is a surge in CapEx with some lag leads to stronger economic potential,
[1:54:49] stronger growth, higher wages and more productivity. This surge is different. It's happened faster. It's
[1:54:56] probably going to be bigger and it's accelerating in real time. The effect on the Fed's mandate is
[1:55:02] something we're taking very seriously. But I would far rather have capital expenditure boom than have
[1:55:09] large corporate profits go back into share buybacks and dividends. Investing here is a good thing and all
[1:55:16] other things being equal, it's going to have fruits for the American economy. Good. Later this year,
[1:55:22] bank regulators are expected to finalize new rules covering capital and stress testing. The Fed's new
[1:55:29] rules are a world away from the harmful basal endgame proposed proposal that the Biden regulators tried
[1:55:36] to jam through, which would have hit working families in Indiana with a hidden tax on every mortgage and
[1:55:43] small business loan. But the transition still has to be handled well. These capital rules touch every part of
[1:55:50] a bank's planning. Implementing the new rules with clear and organized with a clear and organized
[1:55:56] timeline is critical. Will you commit to coordinating the rollout of these new rules across all major bank
[1:56:02] regulators so community banks especially can rely on clear guidance to follow? Yeah, I think,
[1:56:07] Senator, I think clarity here is really important. These rules, as you know, are out for comment.
[1:56:12] I'm keenly interested in the comments as they come in. And I think it is a very good thing if the bank
[1:56:19] regulators can speak with one voice. What we saw going into the 08 financial crisis was a lot of
[1:56:25] regulatory arbitrage where institutions were choosing the regulator that best served their needs.
[1:56:30] I would love to have one standard and I'm committed to work with the other regulators to see if we can
[1:56:35] achieve it. I'll just make one other point. You referenced the stress tests. The stress tests were
[1:56:40] a design and idea that we came up with one dark evening in the 08 financial crisis. Stress tests have
[1:56:46] been used from that year till this year. I'm open-minded to reforms around the stress tests. So the stress
[1:56:52] tests aren't merely a compliance exercise but help reveal both to the regulator and institutions what
[1:56:58] would really happen under a series of stresses. Good. When you were here during the confirmation hearing,
[1:57:03] you and I talked about the China threat, something that you focused on for years. I know you're only two
[1:57:10] months into the job as chairman, but any updates on how you can assess the threat that China poses to
[1:57:16] the dollar's role as the world's reserve economy? So they're a pacing power. They are the AI, the fight
[1:57:24] over AI is one of a proxy fight between these two economies that are striving for significance and
[1:57:30] influence over the next decade. I think we are on the front end of those technologies, but I don't want to
[1:57:36] sound complacent about it. And like with all technologies, they can be used by friends or
[1:57:42] adversaries. And so if there's a subject upon which I've been focused related to this in my first seven
[1:57:48] weeks is making sure the institutions we regulate and the Fed itself is aware of our vulnerabilities.
[1:57:55] And I still think we've got some work to do on that. Good. Thank you. I yield back. Senator Blot.
[1:58:00] Blotchester. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you, Ranking Member Warren.
[1:58:05] It's good to see you, Chairman Warsh. I will tell you, I've been in and out of the room because I have
[1:58:12] four committees happening at the exact same time. And so going back and forth, and I know a lot of the
[1:58:19] things that I wanted to talk about are questions I wanted to ask. Some of have already been asked,
[1:58:24] so I may not use the whole time. But when we talked before during your confirmation hearing,
[1:58:31] I raised questions about primarily three things. One was the independence of the Federal Reserve.
[1:58:39] And you've spoken a lot about that today in the hearing. I talked about transparency around reforms,
[1:58:48] and what does regime change mean? And how does this connect with our regional Federal Reserve Boards?
[1:58:58] And then I also shared with you just my real deep concerns about the impact of AI, as well as the
[1:59:08] opportunities for AI and just the changing landscape, particularly when we talk about that mandate of
[1:59:17] full employment, maximum employment. And lastly, I would also say, really important to me,
[1:59:26] and I shared that with you as well, is that the focus primarily a lot of times what is talked about
[1:59:33] is the Wall Street side and not the Main Street side. And so how Main Street has equal footing to Wall
[1:59:40] Street. And so a lot of the questions that have come, one of the things that you shared in your testimony
[1:59:46] was about the task forces that you have established, which I think is a really good idea. And I think
[1:59:53] the choices of things that you're focused on from communication, you know, to AI and influence,
[2:00:05] all of those things are really important. And I think some of my other colleagues might have asked
[2:00:09] questions. I was on the AI one in particular, I hope that there will be the inclusion of other voices
[2:00:17] beyond economic experts and tech individuals, but actually, families, businesses, people that are
[2:00:28] actually both consuming and impacted by AI. So if you could talk a little bit more about the makeup of
[2:00:37] that one in particular, and how you will include people both in the task force,
[2:00:42] and how you will include Main Street in your ongoing work at the Fed, because before we had the Fed
[2:00:51] listens tours, we had, and I heard positive from both folks on the Federal Reserve side, as well as
[2:00:57] the community side. So could you talk about the inclusion of Main Street on the task forces,
[2:01:04] and then ongoing in your work? How will you include Main Street?
[2:01:08] Yeah, so let me address both those questions, Senator. First, on the task forces,
[2:01:14] we have 15 people across five task forces. I think there's a breadth of views, perspectives,
[2:01:21] expertise, they're all fantastic. They aren't decision makers, you're talking to one of the
[2:01:27] ultimate decision makers. And I believe like you do in the reserve banks, the reserve bank presidents
[2:01:33] bring a breadth of views from their communities, from their businesses, and they and we are going to be
[2:01:37] the deciders about what to do with these. I don't want you to think that I've outsourced anything to
[2:01:42] these task forces other than coming up with new ideas. Which is fine. My question is more related to
[2:01:48] the makeup. One of the concerns I have, even on technology, we've seen incredible advances where
[2:01:54] voices were not included of other folks, and so therefore we had technology that mistakenly
[2:02:02] we took a black judge and thought that he was a criminal based on bad input of how the technology.
[2:02:10] So I'm talking about the input in the task forces as well as your ongoing input. I don't know if you
[2:02:18] continue will continue with like Fed Listens or any of those things, but how will you get feedback from
[2:02:25] community organizations, small businesses, consumers? Yeah, I don't mean to give you an excuse.
[2:02:33] I've been here seven weeks. We've been pushing for reforms, but you have my commitment. The focus
[2:02:39] under my chairmanship at the Fed is what's happening in the real economy. And by the way, there are plenty
[2:02:44] of people on Wall Street who are upset with me already that I'm somehow not feeding them all the
[2:02:50] information they've gotten before. And if they only had my dot, everything would be swell. My message
[2:02:55] to them is play the ball, don't play the Fed. By that I mean figure out what's happening in the real
[2:03:01] economy. Respond to data that's happening in the real economy rather than somehow suggest that we're
[2:03:07] going to be focused on Wall Street. So you have my commitment to focus on Main Street because it
[2:03:11] matters mostly to our dual mandate. Well, I appreciate the time. I will also follow up with questions for
[2:03:17] the record and also particularly on the data piece as well. And I yield back, Mr. Chairman.
[2:03:23] Thank you, ma'am. For senators who wish to submit questions for the hearing record, please do so by
[2:03:28] Wednesday, July 22nd. The chairman will have 45 days from that day to submit your responses to
[2:03:35] questions for the record. This has been a great hearing. Thank you. Well done so far so good. We look
[2:03:42] forward to even more time that we could spend together. And I frankly believe that the American
[2:03:50] people will have their trust restored under your leadership as relates to the Federal Reserve.
[2:03:56] Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Absolutely.