Stock Market Warning — VIX Hit 22 + CRDO, BE, & HOOD Update (Options With Ryan)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: the markets are in free fall right now with ai stocks getting hit the hardest i'm going to be talking about how far this market could potentially crash i'm also going to be talking about where the bottom could be and then five particular stocks that i'm leaning into in this pullback so let's go ahead and dive into it remember this is not financial advice i'm just sharing what i'm personally doing for educational purposes only results may vary now if you take a look at the account here this right here is my public portfolio getting hit quite a bit today but if you do want to see me hit my eight figure goal in the next five to six years and follow along that journey be sure to be subscribed to the channel by clicking the subscribe button down below this video also hit the notification bell so you get my latest updates and please hit the thumbs up button for me if you get any value out of this video i'd greatly appreciate it and i appreciate you being here now let's go ahead and go to the realize gain loss for transparency for the month i like to do every friday kind of showing the monthly update as you can see currently on schedule for our you know return goals and targets here but a little bit slower because a lot of the premiums that i'm going to be realizing i will be at the end of the month and potentially i may get assigned on a lot of stock so but what i'm more happy about is my 1110 clients here in options trading university all following the principles and frameworks that i share here in the mentorship as you can see clients sharing their inspiration here obviously results vary based off account size and risk tolerance even with the market being down today but if you do want to get access to my ryan's trades and leaps entries and exits channel that'll be at the top of the description down below this video i also discuss trade ideas here on my instagram where i do daily market updates and share a little bit of my personal life my x account and my free newsletter i send out a newsletter every monday and friday with a trade of the week so be sure to be subscribed because it's absolutely free now let's go ahead and dive right into it okay we have some economic data coming out next week as well friday is going to be the most important with us flash manufacturing pmi but other than that not too much on the economic front but we do have a lot of earnings coming out so let's talk about it we had taiwan semiconductor report positive earnings they had phenomenal earnings as well as asml this week which is very good for the tech sector and for the ai infrastructure plays so taiwan semiconductor mentioned they will be increasing their capex which is what we want to see for these data center build outs for you know just the ai center the ai infrastructure sector overall okay we do have netflix next week tesla meta ibm and a few others and then the week after definitely some bigger players microsoft amazon intel etc so we'll be on the watch for that things could get volatile here but what we want to pay attention to is the cme fed watch tool okay this is the overarching factor that keeps me bullish or flipping bearish when it comes to the stock market okay so as you can see right now we actually that fifth rate hike that was being priced in um on the table is off the table okay so things have actually improved on the cme fed watch tool even though the market is kind of in a free fall right now and the odds of getting a rate hike for this month are off the table 87 odds we stay the same and then 99 odds we get a potential rate hike quarter basis point in december okay so three more rate hikes being priced in on the table but things are looking constructive here and obviously if the oil come starts coming down that will help the inflation data which will also help the rate hikes being either pushed out further in time or completely off the table so right now i'm still leaning bullish obviously being a bit more cautious with the volatility that we're seeing and being mindful of my cash level so we'll talk about that in just a moment if we look at the market tide here in unusual wales we could see it's definitely a red day right institutions hedging up you see you know spy hedges sandisk qq tesla mu pretty much all tech and then you have some call buying in netflix which is you know they have earnings on monday so you know that is pretty interesting there fear and greed index we are right at the borderline of fear to extreme fear so something to keep in mind because the last time we saw this hit extreme fear back in july that marked the bottom of the ai pullback so just kind of waiting for that signal we aren't quite there yet and i do believe we have some room to go on the downside and i'll talk about levels specifically if we look at oil kind of spiking up a little bit here 98 per barrel do we head back above 100 hopefully not if we do you know we were at those levels back in september maybe that will kind of be a topping point for oil but again we'll keep an eye on that 10-year treasury yields have come down a bit yesterday we saw them come down quite a bit uh and the market kind of plateaued out so this is good this is constructive we do want to see yields um slowly coming down which means that you know investors are flocking back into bonds and flocking back into uh us debt right um which makes the yields come down so uh interesting to see there but what is more interesting is even though you know the market sold off yesterday specifically spy but mostly nasdaq and smh the semiconductors you saw the s5 fi which is 50 s p 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average actually had higher okay so as of yesterday 44 of stocks in the s p 500 are above their 50-day moving average you also saw the equal weighted s p 500 had higher as well so what this is telling me is this is not some sort of beginning of a bear market or ai bubble this is actually rotation this is sector positioning going into q4 this this is typically what happens when you see a lot of the big institutions you know selling off their holdings taking some risk off the table on stuff that has been performing well for the past year and a half right and actually moving into sectors that have not gotten any love of consumer discretionary real estate and sectors like that so we're actually seeing a more healthy rotation in the markets here but you know obviously ai and some of the high growth names are paying for it okay now earnings are going to be very important we do want to see earnings growth eps growth in those tech companies and if we do i think it'll be more of the same we see rotation back into the the safe names right now but then you know the rotation kind of flips back into ai which is my prediction of what's going to happen now obviously results vary there but if we take a look at qqq more importantly we could talk about levels okay now we we had some data right we looked at midterm midterm q4 playbooks going back on the nasdaq eight or ten different midterm election years q4 we saw an average max drawdown of 10 so that's like a normal drawdown in the nasdaq or qqq which tracks nasdaq 100 so 10 percent a 10 correction is is normal right uh the deepest we saw was actually in 2018 which is a 22 percent um which is was kind of an outlier move but you know just keeping a look at that 10 figure gives me a rougher estimate of based off data of where we could potentially go so if we're looking at just technicals which is not the end all be all but i do like to look at support levels right you could see that this 700 level has been an area of support and you know that would be an eight percent drawdown from previous all-time highs of you know 762 so do we head there potentially right and that's going to be my first target between 700 and 710 which we're getting close right that's going to be my first target for a leaps entry i'm going to be layering into these leaps because i am long the market i'm bullish the market i do think that you know with earnings being phenomenal out of tsm asml and lots of other companies especially the banks we're going to see continuous growth i do think that the oil you know oil will stabilize and slowly come down like we saw back in the summer so as you can see you know 700 that's kind of my first area if we get kind of a a big flush right that would be the 685 area which would be a 10 pullback and that's the average max drawdown of qqq in q4 during a midterm election year okay and that would most likely bring the rsi to completely oversold maybe 29 or 30 here on the rsi right and the last time we saw that was during the rather you know the iran war bottom here in march where we actually saw a 29 print on the rsi okay we got close uh here in july with the ai sell-off we saw a let's see a 31 print okay so we could get close to there and i think that a 10 pullback would bring us to oversold levels on the rsi so that's just something i'm keeping in mind now black swan type of pullback maybe we come back 13 to 15 percent 13 would be kind of a double bottom here at the uh ai pullback during july i don't think that's very probable that would be pretty extreme especially you know in such a short amount of time so i'm really eyeing these two levels 700 and 685 is a is an absolute bottom there on qqq okay um smh we already see kind of stabilizing out it's actually doing a bit better chart wise than qqq but you know this thing could head down a little bit further as well okay and then spy looking you know pretty strong here in fact is still within the bollinger band so if we could see kind of an overall flush in the overall market um i think that would be healthy a nice healthy reset going into q4 so still leaning bullish but being mindful of these levels now as far as cash goes okay we just saw vix actually spike up to 20 as i'm filming this video so we're probably getting some sort of you know a nicer sell off here but if we look at vxn this is going to give us a better reading okay vxn is now officially above 25 so if we look at the vxn levels which is the volatility index of the nasdaq we can get a better reading so right now we're trading right here in the uh fear zone the vxn above 25 to 30 which equals 10 to 20 cash right now i'm about 11 cash so i brought them down significantly uh today and yesterday and we'll go over some of those positions okay because i am leaning into this fear being greedy when others are fearful all right so i just keep that in mind we're getting a vix spike right now by the time you're watching this video maybe the vix spike already happened or maybe monday you know we get an all-out kind of flush and vix spikes up to 25 vxn maybe spikes up to 30 who knows um but you know just keeping those things in mind that is what has kept me diligent uh during black swan events crashes bear markets right and being able to have cash to generate premiums with options okay so let's go ahead and talk about uh the stocks that i'm eyeing right now let's take a look at the first one which is axp american express this one was actually green on the day just a few moments ago it's actually down only 0.2 percent okay this is one of those value names where we see rotation getting going back into uh the stock okay this thing has been down ever since the beginning of 2026 has not recovered yet and it's trading at 18 p e ratio okay this is the type of company where if you look at the chart long term right it's beautiful upward trending the chart the you know stock has plenty of cash flow i actually use the product american express so i like their services i believe in the company so this is one that we said hey let's do an earnings play and if we get assigned down here at 300 totally fine with that so um you know i have a 300 put here right at the lower bollinger band and i'm fine building a little position here with a hundred shares at a time and then writing this thing back up so this is actually one stock that uh you know i'm selling puts on cash secured puts with the intention of hey if i get assigned that's cool i'm getting paid to dollar cost average um and i like it at the 300 level as that has been a good area of previous support as you can see this whole year okay so that's axp now let's talk about the next stock which is cls all right cls this one has been an amazing one in the portfolio for the wheel strategy specifically it's one of those stocks that has a beautiful upward trending chart but it does trade in these kind of sideways patterns for quite some time which is really you know for me i like it for the wheel strategy because if i sell cash secured puts near the lower bollinger band right i might get assigned but then look what happens you know when the stock typically touches the lower bollinger band so if i'm getting assigned down here right i can ride the shares back up and that is you know currently what's happening right now if we take a look at the portfolio remember this not financial advice i'm just sharing what i'm personally doing for educational purposes only results may vary but we could take a look at the account right you could see that i currently have 200 shares that i got assigned pretty near the upper bollinger band i got assigned at 390 so my you know strategy here is to layer in and get my cost basis down which i'm currently doing right we have the 340s those might get assigned next week if we don't have some sort of crazy rebound here but that will lower my basis from 390 you know all the way down to maybe 370 380 or mid 370s and then i have these 310s that are currently in the money that will expire at the end of the month if those get assigned that will lower my basis even more and then i'll be able to pick up better covered call premiums you know 15 to 25 days out if you just look right my average would probably be around that 350 area you could see there's really good premiums there so i'm not worried about it still able to hit my monthly goals um in the stock as long as i'm doing this layering strategy so i really like cls right now trading below the lower bollinger band almost oversold on the rsi 32 pe ai infrastructure stock this is the type of companies that i want to be involved in that have you know good balance sheets low debts and low pe ratios okay um so that is one of my favorites in the portfolio the next one's going to be google okay this has been such a resilient stock just trading sideways here for quite some time okay and you know with the tech sell-off that we're seeing with google only being down a couple percent uh from you know these highs back here this is the type of action i like to see when you know things start to turn around if google participates you know we could see some sort of upswing here so with my shares i currently have let's see 100 shares and then i'm selling some more cash secured puts right at the money so pretty aggressive i have a 347 and a half hopefully i get assigned next week i didn't get assigned on them this week i'm actually hoping for assignment i actually i want to have at least two to three hundred shares before the run up to uh you know my target of 400 on google that's kind of where i'm looking to potentially exit my shares okay so this one is more of a longer term wheel stock i'm not holding it long term like over a year but uh longer than i typically hold uh you know which is maybe a two to three months so we'll see here i have the three three three thirty two and a half for earnings which i opened up as well um but continuing to just try and dollar cost average this position so google's looking really good as well 17 p e ratio good value company and obviously we're using the company right now so i like their services and products uh the next one is crdo looking really strong here given you know we have a decent size sell-off in smh crdo is only down three percent typically we see the stock down six ten percent it's very very volatile but what i like about this company is p e ratio is you know it's not the lowest it's a 61 p e it's not the lowest ai infrastructure p e ratio but they do have virtually no debt and tons of cash on hand which i love that and their earnings were phenomenal margins were above 60 percent so these are the type of companies that i'm looking to uh you know get assigned or just keep running the wheel strategy keep selling cash secured put so for me i like it here it's at the lower bollinger band we actually added a third layer okay if we take a look at my crdo position you could see right here we have the 175s currently in the money i'm happy to get assigned there i got my shares called away at 205 a couple weeks ago so more than happy to get back in at a lower price then we have the 155s that i put on and then i just put on some 145 so you can see that i'm kind of layering in and getting my overall cost basis down so that was the trade we did there really liking crdo in my portfolio for the long term now let's take a look at the next stock which is robin hood okay in this beautiful uptrend here a nice steady uptrend nice pullback from you know upper bollinger band back down to lower bollinger band so for me this is one that you know has already been beat up this year it you know we went from 150 all the way down to 60 i didn't think we'd see those levels on robin hood so it already went through that kind of uh rinse process now we are trading slightly above the 200 day moving average slightly above that yearly vwap volume weight volume weighted average price which is institutional cost basis in my eyes so you know right now is a good place to layer i currently have you could see my current position here 105s 99s and 95 so the 105s are in the money if i get assigned in two weeks probably not but if i do i'm happy to take assignment there and keep my position in robin hood beautiful upward trend and earnings are coming up as well another stock the last stock and then we'll jump into an earnings play a bonus earnings play um is be okay be is looking very very good here very strong a steady upward trend every time we see it kind of you know breach that 200 day moving average you could see what happens next we're kind of at that point right now could it head a little bit lower yes but again a stock that i really like in the portfolio so looking to potentially get assigned and acquire this company here at these levels but we'll see if we see a turnaround in the ai infrastructure sector in the next week we're probably going to see some sort of snapback rally so i'm just keeping that in mind but overall good premiums the only thing about this stock it is higher pe so it's a bit more volatile a bit riskier on that front so i'm keeping it smaller in the portfolio now palantir okay earnings play i thought we weren't going to be able to participate because last time i talked about it um you know it was up at above 200 and it already ran from this 187 level that where i was kind of determining do i want to play earnings at the 167 and a half strike for earnings week for cash secured puts it's falling off cliff right now so they're beating this stock up finally and now it's starting to look more attractive at the 165 strike so i'm looking at that strike for earnings okay if we type in uh palantir i don't have a current position but i am eyeing this potentially for a monday i'll open these up or maybe later today the only reason i haven't is because i'm pretty low on cash so 165s look good solid strike and i don't mind owning a little bit of palantir back down at those prices so that's going to be the earnings play for um this upcoming earnings season if you did enjoy the video please give it a thumbs up. I'll see you in the next one and take care.