Stock Market Warning — PLTR, HOOD, & SOFI Update + 2 AI Stocks Im Adding (Options With Ryan)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: today i'm going to be doing an update on palantir robin hood and sofi i haven't talked about those stocks in a couple weeks palantir taking a massive nosedive from here so i'm going to talk about what i'm doing with that position also i'm going to be covering two ai stocks that i'm continuing to add into the portfolio for july and where the market could head from here so let's go ahead and dive right into it remember this is not financial advice i'm just sharing what i'm personally doing for educational purposes only results may vary now if we take a look at the account you can see this right here is my public portfolio that i share here on youtube if you want to see me hit my eight figure goal in the next five to six years be sure to be subscribed to the channel by clicking the subscribe button down below this video also hit that notification bell so you get my latest videos and if you enjoy the video please give it a thumbs up i'd greatly appreciate it and i appreciate you being here now let's go ahead and go into the realize gain loss for transparency as you can see today we closed out a lot of cash secured puts as we are heading to the end of june july is right around the corner so as you can see the profits on the day obviously results very day today year to year but what i'm more happy about is seeing my options trading university members we now have 973 members here in options trading university all sharing their inspiration as you can see here clients following the disciplines and the rules that we have here in the group so amazing to see that if you do want access to my ryan's trades and leaps entries and exits that'll be at the top of the description down below also i do discuss free trade ideas here on my instagram where i share a little bit of my personal life and do daily market updates my x account and my free newsletter all three of those are down below in the description so make sure to be subscribed because they're absolutely free now let's go ahead and dive straight into the news now what i see here on the cme fedwatch tools this is what i look at every week to make sure that hey we're not heading into a bear market okay this tool was looking a little bit concerning at the beginning of the week because we were pricing in a 95 percent chances of a second rate hike as you can see over here those chances have been diminished so we are not pricing in a second quarter basis point rate hike we're just pricing in one quarter base point rate hike for october so not as bad and we're seeing this constructively move towards a potential no rate hike for the year and if we could see that that would be amazing okay and like i said very transitory with oil prices coming down we're going to take a look at that as well if we take a look at the market tide today actually really bullish we had a lot of rotation some net call buying institutional buying in tesla eli lily qqq meta tsm and a few other stocks including spacex surprisingly and then we see a lot of put activity which is hedging activity in mu sandisk a lot of the memory stocks uh seeing some hedging today but overall there's still very much fear in the market okay fear and greed index on unusual whales is showing that we are in the fear zone now i like to take advantage of these zones because you know i don't want to be buying the tops i want to be buying when others are fearful so let's dive into the markets and i'll show you exactly what the market makers are expecting in the next two weeks on spy so we could see that currently we're looking at spy which tracks the s p 500 we are right now now down below the mid-bollinger band line right below the 50-day moving average and we're basically at the bottom bollinger band here okay now are we oversold no not completely on the rsi but uh definitely getting closer to being oversold on spy you could see qqq same thing qqq is uh you know sitting right above that 50-day moving average but closer to the lower bollinger band and vix is still pretty elevated in fact today we saw vix above 20 at the open okay and now we're trading in the 18 so there's still slight fear in the market but let's go ahead and take a look at the vix cash allocation levels so as you can see we are trading between vix 15 and 20 we're at the higher end of that so there's still slight fear in the market which allows me to be about 80 percent invested okay i have 20 to 25 cash on the sidelines is ideal right now i'm about 18 cash going into july because we did spike above 20 so we were in this kind of zone where that allows me to have 10 to 15 cash and allocate more capital into the fear right so that's what i did and now we're around 18 so i feel comfortable at that moment staying aggressive here given the seasonality that july is one of the best months for the s p 500 and the nasdaq 100 in the year so july being seasonally a really green month i do expect that seasonality to occur in fact definitely seeing after the mu earnings being so strong that was kind of a good indicator of what july may bring and seeing okay if we take a look at the oil prices we are officially in the 60s 69 dollars per barrel which is exactly what i wanted to see so continuing to see improvement with the oil prices which will bring the inflation numbers down they might not be reflected for another couple months but this is exactly what we want to see so if we could see mid 60s next week i'm even more bullish for the rest of the year okay so that's what we're seeing there if we took a look at the gex data here on spy so this is showing kind of where institutions are positioning this is where we can also spot put walls meaning hedging activity but as you could see right now even though this spy is near that lower bollinger band ideally you'd want to see some hedging activity going on we're not seeing that so institutions are not paying for protection here which is could be a bullish sign right so um obviously there is some risk if we take a look at spy you could see that market makers are expecting a plus or minus 20 move in the next two weeks so we could head all the way down to the 7 13 maybe 7 10 area somewhere around there on the downside and then on the upside we could head all the way up to 753 now i think being that there's not a lot of hedging activity going on we just came off of good mu earnings vix is already pretty elevated we had every opportunity to sell off further i think that we actually head up next week so that's kind of my take on the markets but again just showing you kind of a range of where we could go so just take that with a grain of salt and be be prepared for any move on the upside or the downside now let's go ahead and dive straight into the stocks i want to talk about palantir okay palantir has absolutely fallen off a cliff this thing has gone down a lot more than i expected okay i have a very big position in fact i was over allocated in palantir uh prior to this massive sell-off okay my assignment prices were up in the 170s and the 180s so my average cost basis is somewhere around mid 170s okay so i know i feel the pain if you have palantir okay um now let's talk about where i think it's headed from here now what i told myself is if this thing heads down to 100 i am a buyer there so i'm actually planning on doubling down on my position remaining overexposed to palantir because i do believe that it's way too cheap and oversold at these particular prices okay trading at a 127 p e ratio this is a very low p e ratio for palantir okay when we saw this thing trading up at 210 or close to 210 it was trading at like a 700 p e okay so it's trading 7 times cheaper relative to palantir okay now what we tend to see is irrationality to both sides of the market okay when it was trading up at 210 a little bit irrational to the upside now that it's trading near 100 a little bit too irrational on the downside it's probably going to land somewhere in between that okay if we're just looking at it from a logical value based perspective and looking at reversion to the mean the the average price is somewhere probably in the 150 high 150s maybe the 160 region like where we saw it um back here when it hit that 200 day moving average so i do think there's a lot more upside potential here for palantir uh but again i'm being i'm getting ready to buy the shares if we see continuous downside and we breach 100 i'm fine buying there now one big piece of news is that michael burry apparently is no longer short palantir so he covered his shorts he made his money on the downside and that's great right that was kind of a uh you know a dark cloud hanging over the stock given his influence and uh you know being famous for the big short and shorting the 2008 uh housing crisis so um you know with him not being short i i guess that could be a positive thing for the stock i don't really look at those things too much but i know a lot of palantir investors were okay um another thing if we just look at the gex data we could go ahead and see there's actually now a put wall which is the first time i've seen this on palantir in the past couple weeks so there's actually a put wall at 112 so today i noticed this which means that there's a lot of institutions hedging at 112 okay so on this bounce they said hey let's hedge our positions uh because you know if this thing falls further we're not going to be able to get out of it fast enough so we might as well have those purchase put options to make us money on the downside and hedge the portfolio okay so you see a put wall at 112 all right that's just a key point to look at if we look at institutional data i could actually pull it up okay we're gonna look at palantir all right and let's just kind of go through the institutions that added in q1 of 2026 all right they had phenomenal earnings right one of the best the best earnings we've ever seen from them vanguard capital added okay geode capital added morgan stanley added we have uh northern trust we could just go down the list bank of america goldman sachs charles schwab okay we have some ubs very very big institutions adding to the position okay so this is just something to keep in mind um that there was some pretty big institutional buying activity in q1 now if we look at the fundamentals this is the most important part let's let's remember that they came off a quarter of 85 revenue growth they have 8 billion in cash on hand with very very little debt okay some of the most phenomenal earnings that we've seen okay uh rule of 40 score of 145 percent gap net income of 871 million bucks which is a 53 margin okay this is all stuff that we want to see okay this company is extremely strong unfortunately it's been grouped into the software sector and there's a lot of people that don't understand the business model okay now it doesn't matter all of that if we just look at the chart okay we could see we're definitely overextended on the downside over oversold on the rsi which is the first time i've seen it since back in february and then prior to that i don't know probably back in 2022 somewhere you know that far back so definitely overextended here but i'm still bullish palantir if we take a look at the portfolio remember this is not financial advice i'm just sharing what i'm personally doing for educational purposes only results may vary you could see that my palantir position is down quite a bit we're down about 34 which is not too bad because i was selling cash secured puts so i was assigned at lower prices versus just buying the stock at 2207 and a half or wherever it went right we were assigned in the 170s and 180s so right now i'm just chilling i'm not selling below cost basis covered calls because this thing could rip up to 125 potentially in the next week so i'm not trying to get in front of this move on the upside i think there's more risk to the upside here so leaving shares uncovered but again i'm probably going to buy another 400 shares at 100 if we do see that price point so that is my update on palantir not too worried about it here i think a majority of the selling has um you know been underway so given that there's a put wall at 112. now if we take a look at hood okay hood is probably one of the most i would say it's the most bullish out of the three of sofi palantir and robin hood okay robin hood is looking really good here we're seeing a nice bounce off the 20-day moving average which is the mid-bollinger band line right and we're seeing a bullish crossover starting to form on both the macd and the rsi and i think robin hood has a lot of potential ahead of it given that if we take a look at the clarity act okay so basically the clarity act wasn't rejected by president trump but they're going there's going to be a delay trump reportedly wants to save he wants the save act uh moved first before supporting and signing the other package which is the clarity act so uh the clarity act is still alive but the timeline is getting a bit messier we don't know when that's going to be passed initially we thought the clarity act which is you know all around crypto uh which was huge for the crypto market and for robin hood as well um this might this probably not going to get passed on july 4th which was the original date so with that being said i thought robin hood you know could head down a bit further but it's actually holding pretty strong here at 96 and it just you know is has this nice upward trend going as of now so with that being said i think that robin hood is probably first to recover back up into the 120s 130s potentially in the next month or two in fact if we go into the discord okay we have a tool here right here and we could check the seasonality okay of robin hood so i'll do that for the video so you can see how we do it in the group all right so seasonality for robin hood according to the data shows that you know it's green 80 of the time in june which it did that okay may it did that 100 of the time it's green it confirmed that seasonality and look at july 80 of the time it's green again so we might see a continuous run-up and then 60 60 of the time it's green in august september and october so still really good months um august september and october so with that being said i think there's you know some recovery here more room for recovery on robin hood now let's take a look at the gex data and we could see kind of where there's you know institutional resistance support as you can see there is a put wall at 95 so that is a base support for the stock which is great to see and then there's a call wall at 100 so if we do breach through 100 again we could see kind of a speeding up in that activity on the upside so we may be flat next week but again if we break through 100 which is resistance we could see some a major upside move so we'll just see from there all right now sofi kind of same thing i think sofi is probably the least bullish out of the three given that the clarity act i think had more weight on sofi because they do have their own stable coin now still upward trending here from you know back in may so that's good anthony noto bought more shares last week which is great um so we'll just have to wait and see i think earnings are going to be the tell for sofi which is going to be around august 4th so you know from here sofi could be maybe slightly upward trending and then maybe after earnings we'll see you know if we can breach above 20 on sofi now let's go ahead and dive straight into the two ai stock now one is an etf and that's dram okay dram i think is going to have continuous strength throughout the rest of the year with sk hynix uh you know being listed as an adr on the us stock exchange i believe july 11th that's going to provide more liquidity for dram easier access to sk hynix which is going to be a good thing uh micron had amazing earnings today. Sandisk down about 9%, WDC down 13%. These are all weighing on the ETF, which is a great time for kind of a dip buying opportunity. So for me, as you can see in the portfolio, we added quite a bit. I have 130K position here. We have 70 puts, we have 65 puts and 63 put options. So the cash secured puts. So I sold all of those puts. And that is kind of where I'm comfortable owning the stock. If we go back to the chart, you could see like my highest strike would be 70, which is only, let's just see, it's about 3% from here, 3.2% from here. My next strike is going to be 65, which is about 10% from here. And then I have the 63s, which is going to be about a 13 and a half percent discount from here. And from all time highs, that's about a 22% discount. So I'm looking to get assigned potentially, or just ride them up, um, in this region. If we do see more of a pullback, but DRAM, I think that, you know, just with kind of how the market is, it's a little fidgety. We're not seeing clear rotation into some of the beat up names, the software sector, the mag seven, we're not seeing equal participation. We're continuing to see money chase, uh, the high free cashflow names, which is the memory sector, the AI infrastructure stocks, and kind of all in that subsector. So DRAM is going to be a continuous one in the portfolio that we stay pretty heavy on, uh, for the remainder of the year. The next one's going to be CLS. Now CLS has been one of the best stocks for me to trade in my portfolio, very range bound. And then it'll, it'll have, you know, these big upward moves. So right now with CLS being near the lower Bollinger band, this was a time for me to really load up on cash secured puts. Okay. So, um, as you could see, we're like almost oversold on the RSI near that lower Bollinger band. What I did today was I added some more cash secured puts. I'm going to get assigned to three 90, totally fine with that. Because if I go to the options chain, go out 21 days and I go to three 90. All right. I could sell, uh, covered calls at my cost and pick up almost a thousand bucks. Okay. So totally happy with that in 21 days. Um, but as you could see today, we sold some three tens and some three twenties. So, you know, going out to the end of the month, go into that three 10 strike, pick up about, you know, over 2000 bucks to 30 Delta. And the ROR there is about 7.2%. Obviously results vary based on where the stock's at. If the stock goes below three 10, I'll be forced to buy those shares, but three 10, I felt comfortable there because if we look at where that is from here, right, that says that's about a, let's call it a 10% discount from current prices below the lower Bollinger band and from all time highs, about a 34% discount. So totally fine grabbing it there. If I get assigned, I'll be able to ride it back up. So that is the, um, move that I did on CLS. Now, if you enjoyed this video, please give it a thumbs up. I'll see you tomorrow for one of our client interviews and I look forward to seeing you next week. Take care.