Stock Market Crash. Nifty prediction for tomorrow Monday. Stock Market Analysis. Crude. US Iran War

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: we have seen nifty has been behaving very very well in the last one week although the world markets have been in a big turmoil we saw on friday night how nasdaq has actually fallen three and a half percent gold is crashing three three and a half percent but thankfully nifty has been doing all right in fact nifty actually grossed above 23 000 also a number that was kind of you know become very very difficult to cross especially considering that the world scenario was very very leak now where do we go from here that is the main thing there are two or three things that we are to watch out for the first is that there is a rumor that the bombing on iran can start anytime soon again so president trump has kind of indicated that it might or might not but there is a news channel called msn which i'm going to show you so they are saying that it can possibly start immediately after the midterm now when is the midterm the midterms are happening on third of november so they are saying that one day after the midterm the bombing can start again if the bombing starts again then it's going to be very very bad for everyone however on the positive side you know there is some news that mr jd vance or vice president jd vance is written a letter to iran and you know they are evaluating it and so on and so forth and they say that the tone of the letter is good and it's a different tone so you know there are positive signs as well but mostly it is looking like it's a very very tough situation because a lot of flight cancellations etc have also happened to in the middle east and that is not painting a very good picture right now and a lot of countries have issued the warning so i don't know whether you're aware of it or not but about 37 countries have issued warning to all its citizens to store some stock of food and water i don't know what that is about but you know i just hope that it is not related to this particular war and it's a general warning so all these things are getting on to us one by one the second thing is that FIS continued to sell non-stop so FIS have again sold about 45 000 crores in october october was a very very rough month even if you look at it how it panned out in terms of the options it was not an easy month for option sellers as well you know because there was too much of volatility in the market and now what we have seen in the u.s market especially last night on friday that is going to spill over into the other world markets as well so monday morning asia is going to be a big big big red now how is our market going to behave is slightly tricky we might have decoupled a bit from u.s of course you know if there is complete weakness all around then our markets are also going to fall down so u.s markets actually fell about three percent and so did gold and all the other precious metals as well so there was all around weakness what are the other indicators that we have to look out for one is the open interest our open interest is also quite positive right now i know it can change in a bit with two days step floor expiry which is monday and tuesday it can always turn around within a single day also but our open interest is highly positive right now it's at about 1.6 now these levels are usually not seen easily but let's see what the implication of that is going to be maybe you know we might try to hold on for some time or it could be that you know people who have gone long are going to cover their longs and the market might just fall too much also on monday so that also remains to be seen another thing is the INR INR has stabilized a bit but still it is back to 95 and this is after so many measures that have been taken by rbi i don't know what is going to come after diwali because i think it looks like there is a pause but there was a news also on lrs which has kind of died down in the last two three days that there might be some curbs on lrs happening as well if that happens that is going to be sentimentally very very negative for the markets so there's lots to discuss to stick around till the end before we begin anyone who wants to create or evaluate their mutual fund portfolio can do so by filling a google form i'm a registered nism certified mutual fund specialist i help people make strong robust mutual fund portfolios so let's say you know if your portfolio is not doing well you want a second opinion or you want to get it created completely new way you can just write in to me second is if anyone wants to join my whatsapp group it's a knowledge sharing group there are lots of like-minded people over there again the link is given in the description below so let us begin today's video so this is the news which is causing all the problem versus trump plans to resume strikes on iran day after midterm elections with republican support for the war slipping and the third aircraft carrier headed towards the region trump is weighing another attack against iran that he hopes will bring the war to a close so this is not really good news and you know if this actually happens then there's going to be big turmoil in the whole market now let us look at what our markets have been saying our markets have been in a range this is the chart that i had shown you last time as well these are the two levels which is one is about 23 000 we are trading at the higher end of the band and you know i had said that we are going to consolidate over here for some time and then perhaps you know make a dash towards the higher end of the band and another good thing is that the 200 dma is now has come down a bit it's about 24 000 so if whenever we break out of this you know then 200 dma also will be within reach but the thing is that if we are able to break this band then that's going to be good but monday looks like it just might be slightly negative and in that case you know we might again go head back towards the lower end of the band though i am not hoping that we are going to break that that is a line in sand until unless of course you know situation in middle east completely goes out of hand and there is a war escalation except in that case 22 100 also might not hold we'll have to wait and see but right now indian markets are not looking that bad especially the price action of the last two three days has been quite positive this is the 200 dma that i was talking about this blue line as you can see over here it is at 24 034 so we are not very far away from it but i would not expect it to go actually and clear it in one go if you see we had broken this line somewhere over here this was about february and we have really not been able to cross it after that we made an attempt somewhere over here but again failed down and you know we are back so it's until less 200 dma is taken out the bears are going to remain strong but once 200 dma is taken out then bulls have a chance then you know we can see higher levels of 25 000 26 000 but for that the world situation has to change it india cannot alone put pull out such polish sentiments because the world is actually in a big big turmoil and this is what happened in the world so if you see the nasdaq chart it actually fell almost minus three percent in one day three and a half percent now these kind of brutal corrections are rarely seen if you see even in the last one month it has actually gone down by about seven percent i've been saying this that nasdaq has not been able to clear 30 300 for a long time even since may so you see that this weakness has been there since may and it's just actually you know the seven companies which have been pulling nasdaq all along but otherwise if you see us markets are in big time trouble just like all the other world markets you have seen how south korea has gone down has japan has gone down now taiwan has gone down so all the world markets are in trouble and us is no exception except for those seven companies and now even that is unraveling we saw how intel corrected in one day some 10 15 percent and there is all around pressure microsoft is laying off its employees and ai companies are missing their guidance and so on and so forth so it's going to be a tough tough phase going ahead for nasdaq also and now nasdaq is minus 10% from its top even gold and silver were not spared gold has actually broken 4000 so if anyone is interested i had done a video yesterday on gold and silver you can see that so gold has broken 4000 after a long long time and the last one year return for gold has actually gone negative so if you see over here last one year return is now minus three percent for gold who could have thought that this is possible and just roll back the clock about couple of months back and january you know we were at 5500 from there just fallen down one way and now we have even broken 4000 and that is almost a 30 35 correction gold usually doesn't give you that kind of correction but this time it has so it is not looking good even for gold and silver if you look at how our markets have been performing if you see over the last one week nifty pharma has been doing exceptionally well and also metals have been holding on but if you look at the last one month story the picture actually completely changes so metals have been in a big problem at minus 5.4 percent the ones that have been doing well are it so it has bounced back at about 15 but if you look at the last one year performance then you will see where the actual pain has been fmcg has been down minus 22 percent nifty has been a complete leg art because of it and banking which is at minus 10 percent but if you see where the out performance has come in it has come in small caps so small caps have just fallen minus 3 percent mid caps have fallen minus 4 percent so this is where the out performance is coming in of course if you had been in pharma which is a outward facing sector which actually depends on dollars then you have done really well but the time to buy pharma was not then the time to buy pharma was in 2000 and pharma was in a structural bear run and that is the time then you have to really build on positions if you really believe in that sector but anyhow the point is that if you were just in nifty you would actually be down your portfolio will be down because there is no support left from anywhere even gold which is holding on one part of the portfolio is down so these are tough times but also do mind you that whenever you buy something which is down let's say minus 20 30 percent like gold is then you know it is very very good for the long term in fact even nifty is actually not at bad levels because it has not been doing anything for the last two years in fact this is the first year after 10 years that nifty is going to close flat for the year i'm talking about the calendar year all the other last 10 years have been positive yes in fact even covid year was positive it is quite surprising but yes even that year was positive so nifty is all set to now close the year at negative after 10 years and it's necessarily not bad froth which is developed in the system and the system starts to clean again so nifty hasn't done anything for the last two years is the next year going to be better i definitely think so once this war situation is sorted out then you know things are going to get really really good for us but yes we also have our problems if i have been taking out money our rupee is under tremendous pressure which i'm going to show you how things are panning out so this is the usd inr which you see are even after so many measures by the rbi we are still at 95 and there is a talk also a rumor that 140 billion dollars which was done through fcnr almost half of them are out so that is also going to cause a lot of pressure on the rupee going ahead the next thing that needs to be watched out for is the us 10 year yield it has come down a bit but now what is happening is that with the prices of crude going up us 10 year is coming down now what is that indicating that is indicating that there is a chance of recession because earlier what was happening is with the price of crude going up there was an inflation fear which was getting built in but that is now gone out of the window and us 10 years has started to come down which basically means that the markets are worried that the higher oil prices are going to cause a recession rather than inflation so this is something which is very very important to note this is the price of crude it is just not stopping it has gone to 113 i am really worried let's say if the war starts again then this is going to go to 120 140 150 it can actually go anywhere so this 113 is not looking good and if you look at crude on any of the time frames it has gone positive on all the time frames so one day one week one month three months six months one year one year crude is up 80.79 percent who could have imagined that crude is going to go up by 80 percent in last one year so this is how markets are this is how unpredictable t is who could have thought the trade of form is going to be closed for eight months iran us war is going to continue for eight months and it is no end in sight it looks like this is going to continue forever you know that is why they say forever wars it's very easy to get into a war but extremely difficult to get out of it that is why countries actually try to postpone or not go to war for as long as possible but this time it is different and it looks like this war will take its toll it's already taken a toll on the emerging markets just might take a toll on us as well but the markets over there collapsing the way they have on friday now coming to the indian markets how they are poised so if you look at the open interest it's at 1.62 there are about 22.69 crore quotes written versus about 13.97 calls so the structure is bullish no doubt about that but the structure was bullish before the news from us came out and before the nasdaq crashed so how is it going to be on monday of course monday is going to be under pressure but i would still give it some chance to maybe fight for some time and then it will depend on how the world markets are moving if you look at the fia shots they have also been reducing their shots though not significantly and this is the exact time when their shots started reducing this was around 27th of october and we saw how nifty actually has gone up since then so their shots are around 2.41 lakh contracts which is not very less of course so at any point in time if they want to step up on the pedal then you know you'll see the markets actually go down but it's right now at 2.41 lakh contracts and let's see how things go they actually go to about 3 lakh contracts also so right now i would say it is still less but if you look at how they have been selling non-stop that is not good news so if you look at in october they have sold about 45 000 crores a month before that they had sold 44 000 crores so they are also doing it in a calibrated way they are not going at about 1 lakh crores because they know if they do that then the markets are going to crash like they crashed in march so they are also going down slowly and slowly and they are giving time to market to go up a bit but let's see you know if things like ltcg tax off comes in at some point in time then it's going to give that philip and hopefully the fias are going to come back but right now if you see over here there is not even a single green they have been selling non-stop now i think for almost 14-15 months and that is where you are seeing a lot of pressure on our markets come in so the setup is bearish right now if you ask me i mean nifty is still okay i would say but the world market setup is really really bearish let us see how things play out if nasdaq stabilizes if there is some good news that there is some peace agreement that has been reached between iran and us things can actually turn around pretty quickly but i would not be so optimistic right now because us markets are in big big trouble they have really not corrected the entire world markets have been correcting around them and then there is a problem of the us yields going up so world is not the same place as it was about six months back or let's say before the iran war just like it was not the same place after covid so things have changed completely crude has become very expensive and it is going to take a toll it is already taking a toll on our markets as well our markets have been flat we are seeing how the other economies are also struggling so things are not pretty right now but there are pockets of out performance like i told you small cap is one alpha is another these have been doing exceptionally well even when nifty has been negative they have given positive returns so it really becomes comes down to how smartly you've constructed your portfolio if you have been smart in constructing your portfolio it'll still give you pockets of out performance provided you know how to do it and if anyone needs any help on that they can contact me through the google form so that was update for today i hope you liked it if you did please do like share and subscribe and i shall see you soon another update till then take care bye bye