Monday Stock Market Live: Are Markets Going To Find Support Soon? SP500, Nasdaq, Semiconductors.

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: all right welcome everyone to the monday stream it's the 26th of october stocks commodities cryptos so much to go through today of course big earnings as well massive tech stocks quick startup before we get in quick risk disclaimer of course today's dream is educational in nature guys what a week last week was hey we saw big sell-offs in several different markets including semiconductors key cross-correlation we'll talk about today in the s p nasdaq semiconductors and other markets and then of course we also got oil moving up and i thought i'd just start here with this chart of oil this is a december future and you'll see here that we're trading at 80 which might seem cheap until you realize that of course that is well up from where it was just a little while ago and although oil is down today this is still one of the big discussions this week as we kick off quite a lot of news actually as well we've got super amounts of news because we have here on wednesday uh the federal funds rate statement and press conference as well so it's expected that look we probably won't get a rate hike uh but we probably won't get a rate cut either and therefore the press conference could move the markets quite a lot so just be warned guys 2 30 pm this wednesday and top of the earnings is going to be pretty wild and speaking of earnings i'll just quickly show you here this one here from earnings whisper basically goes through this week's earnings going to be massive we've got sk hynix on tuesday after the close microsoft google intel amazon so by the end of this week we'll have a very good idea on what the market thinks about everything from technology to semiconductors we've also got sandisk on thursday which was kind of the poster child along with hynix of the most recent run along with seagate and also of course western digital just kicked things off with uh maybe a little bit lackluster uh we've got about 200 300 people coming in here early i know it is a little bit earlier than normal because of course we're doing the streams with all this daylight savings around the world so if you can help us out make sure to thumbs up the stream it does help us out and it lets other people see it let's give a shout out to some people that have joined us though we have mk welcome uh ewz down 19.6 wow this blew my mind it's pretty big found it by typing it wrong uh uh do to do what is this uh hedge from jano adam welcome banana mk na name peter ron satson john yakki manpreet uh and clippy as well ray and everybody else welcome guys silver sad face yeah silver took that new low as well um it's pretty nasty but look guys massive earnings here this is the week to watch and of course last week was marred by all sorts of bad things so we'll go through it and we'll have a look at the good the bad and the ugly and then maybe the good again um why because i guess you know it was really about losing tech and whether this is part of a bigger storyline so you can see here we'll start with the magnificent seven we've got a high we've got a low we've got a higher high and then we took that lower low and we ended up having another bad friday with the sell-off coming through and this week i've got a couple of levels i'm watching particularly around 73.18 why am i watching this level guys well we get through this then suddenly things look really great again that's the price that's the power of price action i guess because you know it could be a false break to the downside but it's going to need quite a lot of work and the reason is because it wasn't just that we lost magnificent seven we also saw a massive sell-off in so many semiconductor stocks and what's the saying on the channel guys to stop a freight train i'll let you put in the channel comments uh while we're waiting for that and so now quick also announcement guys um i did want to just mention here as well we will be doing an event for anyone that's in sydney australia we're coming to sydney to do a really awesome event this is going to be our second ever workshop live which are fantastic i'm looking forward to hopefully coming to the northern hemisphere as well next year so stay tuned for that but this will be on saturday the 5th of december early bird tickets down below in the description it's always awesome to meet you guys and also the best part of it is you get to meet other people in the community the guys in the chat uh the girls everybody else you know everyone's here in this community is awesome and whenever we get you guys uh around in a in a meeting place not only do you meet new trading and investing friends people that are like-minded but you also uh share some excellent ideas so if you're interested in finding out about that i've got 26 days till that event kicks off early bird on sale right now and i would highly suggest you consider it it's in the pin comments also in the description down below and as i mentioned hopefully we'll be coming to the northern hemisphere at some point next year so stay tuned for that announcement it's going to be super awesome and the answer is yep that's right you need structure so generally you need to see some form of actual turnaround thank you very much wavy appreciate uh the very kind comment there so you guys listen need structure need structure need structure that's correct so let's have a look at semis mags has kind of dropped a lot of you will recognize this as a possible head and shoulders as well and if you took the the head and shoulders neckline which kind of looks like that then extrapolating that out would actually proof to around 67. so from i guess the technical seller side a lot of people going to be looking at 700 but or 67 but what that's going to do is going to allude into my next point which was 700 we'll use our nasdaq chart here and that is where we get of course all the puts so we're trading at 705 right now which is basically flat from the friday close but you might notice 700 700 700 700 it always comes up and the reason is because it's a huge number for the nasdaq queues and if we get underneath there we could go to negative gamma and then of course markets could get a lot worse but this is what i call cross correlation guys we've got a 700 on the queues the s p by the way these are the options levels moving into today so you guys can see them the q the s p managed a 760 which is a bit of a support now everything's moved down to around 750 which is important to note and the semiconductors market uh the semiconductors market well it really got hammered and it fell of course to new lows and went underneath what we've been calling the leopold level and if you're not familiar with leopold level basically when i'm sure you all are but when the crash happened over here there was of course a famous kind of bull a young bull that was in the markets on the semiconductors and he got kind of liquidated and sold out at this point he's holding and soon after that basically the markets rebounded so we call it the leopold level just because it's where unfortunately a panic sell or at least a sell went down a lot of people give him crap for that but really i guess he still made a ton of money so it's just an interesting zone because it has more than just the leopold level and i i want to do this with you right now just to show you the importance of this level but there is a moving average behind this and i mentioned it in the in the advanced class today and in the macro class that we do for our market masters club over at fxevolution.com but in that class we kind of talked about the 200 but the 200 moving average also sits here so we've got a 200 we've got a leopold and of course we have previous lows so to stop a freight train down guys we're going to need market structure and what is that going to take well at the moment let's have a look at it on the small time frames it's a series of lower lows and lower highs and you'll notice there's quite a lot of supply here as well so if we volume profile that up a little bit we'll just do this quickly here to get a bit of an idea 550 so we'd want to be taking out 560 plus um why would we want to do that well we'd want to make a higher height um to actually see a technical change of trend so at the moment the markets are still in downward trends and therefore even though it's hit an interesting level it's a bit of a guess also note the daily or the four hour 20 and you'll see the daily 20 on gold later um acting as a bit of dynamic resistance so that's also kind of a critical point let's look at the cosby this is the south korean market often considered kind of the proxy for hardware at the moment it's also doing something you know again a little bit strange but it's okay to happen here and that is it's slowing down with itself so it's been selling selling selling selling selling selling took a lower low so here's one two three lows what could this pattern potentially be guys for anyone that knows their technicals what could you be looking at here when it comes to a ta pattern we'll ask the chat you guys will know uh when will it be in melbourne we actually did a melbourne one [00:09:55] Speaker 2: not that long ago uh man pre it was really awesome uh hopefully hopefully great we'll do it [00:10:03] Speaker 1: uh jerek hopefully we'll do it big pump little what's up says tom at fx evolution i'm seeing you are getting bigger because scam bots are targeting the channel yeah well i do delete them and and always tag their words but they are very annoying make sure to uh report those things that are like spcx 72 is great you know what i mean like that kind of thing we don't like those guys they're the world is filled with that but you know and the world will fill with ai i feel like some of those things are even less uh they were more convincing now they're certainly not convincing which is good i guess a pit it could be could be a wycoff yep i think that's fair you know wycoff could be the way you're looking at this market because it's lower lows and lower highs and more importantly it's now started to slow so to stop a freight train you need some form of structure this is beginning to create structure but it's still early days you know levels to watch maybe a 9 10. could we close above that maybe that changes like at least some of the smaller time frame structure but at the moment you go to weekly it's going to become blatantly clear that this market fell off cliff straight into that previous support and i think uh if you're not doing this type of stuff just remember to always look at different pairs you load up the cosby you won't be able to see volume if you load up a korean futures you'll be able to see here at least where the bigger trades have gone through and you'll notice that everything's happening at around the same level what we use back here what's part of the reason we used it to talk about cross correlation and of course we're at that same level the difference though is it's come down very aggressive and last time it found this huge wick which gave it a bit more way way more confidence of course there's a lot more strength there this time around it's coming in pretty aggressively so it really is a concern on risk and i think that'll go to our first poll for the day because we do need to do a poll we always have a tradition in polls guys i asked one on the weekend actually let me have a look i'll just tell you what it went up as so this was uh answered by thank you very much almost 3 000 people so let me just uh pull this poll up here let me see if i can bring this up holy molly that is absolutely we are we're perfectly i'm telling you what you guys are the best and then the reason is because we are truly the in the middle kind of you know running running both ways being neutral no fomo no fear guys okay two thousand six hundred and eighty review uh post uh post comments okay in terms of um sorry poll poll uh takes and we have here the votes come in at an even have we just witnessed stock market peak earnings in the us yes 50 no 50 percent two thousand six hundred and eighty people that is incredible stuff you already saw there's a 50 50 poll no way no way well i don't know if i want to do another poll now with that that is absolutely crazy i don't think you can find that poll anywhere else at 50 50. but you know it is fair it is fair because i can see i can see truly both sides here at this point it's not as clean cut but yeah that is a straight 50 50 poll wow 2680 review uh posts that's nuts information theory says that there's no information to make the decision then if it's 50 50. and i kind of agree with that john that's actually cool i like that idea information theory wow yeah that's that's fair because actually that's sometimes isn't that the best thing about markets when you have clarity especially when you have clarity and other i want to ask you this when you have clarity and everyone disagrees with you does that trade or investment tend to work out better yes or no let's see in the comment here the ugly duckly cometh says it was so skewed yes it's peaked in the first few hours though well the bears are early burn okay and then boom okay here we go so a lot of you saying here yes that tends to be the way it kind of works out for me yes that's forged yes that's 100 and the reason why is because i know we all think we're not affected but i'll give you a little hint here you are all affected you ever notice that that thing where we'll just use cars as an example and then you might be looking at a new car and you're like oh kind of like this you know land cruiser or i like this whatever lc 300 or whatever car you're looking at lamborghini i don't know then all of a sudden you see them everywhere well i didn't know there were so many teslas on the road well i didn't know there were so many you know whatever's on the road and then suddenly the marketing will work on you so the the problem is we all think it doesn't but it does and actually in in stock markets in investing in trading this is a beautiful thing because when you have clarity when you see something and everyone else is off in the the sun seeing something else and i'm not talking about you just see it you see it in the price action the wall of worry or just to sell a series of lower lows and lower highs it's pretty it's pretty beautiful thing in fact you could almost notably say that gold in some ways did that recently let's actually take a look at gold here before we get back to semis and uh core weave core weave oh core weave all right we'll ask the poll here i need to know what do you think about core weave all right here we go where are we damn core weave guys it's a bit nasty all right so what should we ask here about this question you guys give me a couple of interesting ones in the chat we'll let the chat decide on the the question for the poll today you can decide i'll bring it over here i can do it separately there we go all right you guys decide and we will answer the poll of your choice and get some good answers there i think sell sell core weave yeah all right so it's uh core weave is just it look it's getting the attention which means everyone's knowing about it but at the same time it's a bit scary whenever a business has more debt than it's worth on the market that means the market smells something very bad it's been like that for a while though now let's have a look here at gold gold daily 20 daily 20 daily 20 daily 20 lower low if it comes back to the daily 20 you know i guess bears will be looking at that very closely bulls will still need it pretty much above here so they're going to need a lot of movement on gold now did gold slam into a support yeah sure but here it was you know possibly getting a little tasty it was trying and that's the power of technicals it failed to do any closes above the resistance and it just continued to make lower lows and lower highs and in this case it was it was pretty nasty stuff so um there were look a lot of people that did well on the small day trading and and multi-day trading kind of plays but unfortunately you know this is the thing it's sitting in a series of lower lows and lower highs until it actually proves otherwise and that's that's one of those things i guess in terms of bias that can happen there real traders trade brazilian etf yeah so what's that doing today is this uh ewz or something yeah how is that going with the news of the new oh oh [00:18:31] Speaker 2: i knew it was down a bit this morning oh damn dude it's like one of those crazy island reversals damn [00:18:49] Speaker 1: it's not even on my chart on a weekly i just pressed weekly it's not even there if you haven't noticed already guys look at the bottom right hand corner [00:18:58] Speaker 2: okay i'm going to show it to you don't look too quickly [00:19:03] Speaker 1: oh hey uh 31 damn that thing absolutely got nailed it got snailed wow that's a big fall for the brazilian etf and this was after it hit the news and everyone was going yeah absolutely wild about how it was a thing and it's just taken out it's interesting that see how it falls so usually this level or this level but unfortunately for many this will be a big liquidation level so you'll see huge volumes on this today but oh that is that is a fall 26 on index imagine if you woke up one day and the s p was down 26 damn appreciate it kade thank you very much will call wave behave like oracle uh well technically it's already you mean will it hold let's have a look at call wave here that ewz is nasty down 26 but it's fallen into the swipe the low we'll see oh it's actually this is down a little bit more than you'd think here so call we've lost support so i ask you this guys do you think that's changed trend is that in a downward trend does it look like it's a buy the dip as people call it you know realistically the thing about this is remember it's better generally to buy the v than it is the dip and why is that well unfortunately the dip can keep selling and a lot of novice traders and investors what they'll do and i'm guilty of this i've done it before is it'll go underneath and i'll think oh yeah but it'll probably be a trap and it'll probably reverse or it's just too good a price or something like that especially when you get kind of emotional about it you kind of like oh you know oh big volume big volume big volume you know and you see a couple of big trades and you think oh i'm gonna buy the dip and then what often happens is the damn thing keeps dipping and maybe it ends up at 40 or even worse but look to be down four and a half is is quite nasty let's get a couple of these comments in to get the poll poll will dr copper stay strong interesting concept yes one there core wave equals number one distressed asset it's probably others that are worse but call we've certainly in the news for it will the treasury rate hike affect the market going forward you reckon there's a treasury rate hike i guess there's one being priced in a little bit here but it's taken off now tom thoughts on uh i don't know what that is i don't know that comment i don't think i can answer it not not qualified on that one so might as well just spend time looking at the charts myself oh depends man if you're saying might as well like it depends what charts you're looking at we're always covering plenty of different charts you've been fed rate hike that was i was just reading someone else's comment we'll call wave reads magic yeah wouldn't even touch it it is tough it is tough all right we're going to start with the with the standard one here because i think it is actually a really good question considering we're neutral right now [00:22:27] Speaker 2: all right here we go [00:22:37] Speaker 1: okay all right so with that let's go around some more charts we'll get that poll doing so call we've look it fell through this support and when that happens of course you you've got to say well you know look it's freight train down needs market structure it comes back to really that quote you see that happen you've also kind of seen hynix come under pressure and if you have a look at western digital which we'll look at in a moment western digital has also fallen further so one here sk hynix we'll use why are we not able to get sk hynix up here it doesn't want it doesn't want to load there we go oh this is the wrong hynix we use hynix from korea there we go so it fell through a little bit of lower low and you'll notice here that we have you know really decent structure starting to form again you suddenly get a gap up so there's a gap down you get a gap up that could be what they call an island reversal and that's happening at the price underneath this previous low over here so this is of course a low and then we've got uh the lower low this will still stop loss steal and then we're we're there but the problem is it's not just there if we have a look at w d and c which is western digital the earnings last week pushed this market further low and you'll notice that since the highs here in june of course this is the hardware highs this stock has just been continuously losing and i think it's probably really showing us the sign of the times the other poll we could ask and maybe i'll ask in the questions here do you guys think that we're past the supply constraint so of course you look at someone like nvidia and nvidia makes so much money so much money yeah everyone wants that slice of the pie so they're all trying to get it as fast as they can and we know that nvidia's profit margins they'll never hold up because where there's that kind of profit margin capitalistic markets tend to come in and break it down over time but when you look at a chart like this it kind of tells me that we're past kind of the supply at least most of the supply glut issues kind of similar to cars back in 2021 22 when you couldn't actually get enough supply the demand was too fierce well maybe this is the demand peak for markets being seen and you might say well tom we haven't seen demand peak yet yeah but markets work 12 to 18 months away okay so to prove that kind of concept what can we look at well for example we could look at home builders from a little while ago if we go and check out home builders and also the way that this thing rise up raised up and we talk about when was the peak was actually 2024 and if i then load up a us 10 year on top of this okay then you'll notice that it doesn't like of course the most recent yield spike but at the same time we also got a yield spike over here which first dropped home builders now it's very susceptible to spikes which you could say well this means home builders go up because yields are coming down here and that's initially the way you might look at it but what actually happened over here was we went from the average american buying a 500 550 000 build house to over here they're now building houses for what 386. so you guys have dropped from 550 to 386 so actually people have started to struggle and the market smelt that ages ago and proportionately did a slowdown in home builders and home construction so it's not stupid it always trades heavily in front and i think that western digital chart kind of shows this is tom uh as from last week i put a comment i've started to short the smp okay the capital isn't sustainable all right good luck sir i can understand your thoughts there still in a supply constraint uh just repricing to a more modest pe so at the moment yep that's correct but a more pot modest pe in other words is also saying that maybe the future doesn't have that kind of growth and that's why when you look at an earnings curve at the moment most of the economists kind of have us here okay and they know there's a slowdown coming on the earnings growth period so it's just not going to be this kind of growth it's going to be more like this kind of growth and this kind of growth but that's really the question you've got to figure out um you know what what is this market telling us and it all comes back to yields and i think a lot of you have some great comments here to say chips are stacking up the data centers will continue to get uh to get hold up yep tom uh that's right that's that one you need another one that says sideways yeah well the kangaroo market i think constraints shifted to primarily power and public sentiment yep so this is another thing it's become political to say data center or not say data center i don't think the supply issue is done but i do think the stock price will reflect the end of it's going to be the biggest high i've ever seen in semiconductors not enough houses for the chips australia's interest rate is going to go up or hold this time well it really depends on tomorrow's inflation figure nathan so if you're looking at the australian interest rates by the way for anyone that doesn't know let's have a look at rates here because it brings us into our macro discussion for this week and what's going on here are the australian yields one year away so again it's not my opinions the opinion of the market and what's the market telling us 4.95 now here in australia for anyone that doesn't know we have mostly variable rate interest so effectively when people buy houses they all buy it on floating rates very few fixed interest like you have in america there's certainly no 30-year fixed interest so in america it's kind of cushioned by the 30-year fixed interest that was around forever the variable rates really punish uh housing mortgage holders so they have these kind of rates going up like this it actually shows there really is an inflation problem here and where does inflation come from guys where's the predominant cause of inflation and if you knew this piece of information maybe six years ago then you would have been loving life if you knew where the predominant force of inflation comes from let's say five years ago anyone know who causes the most inflation in the world generally ai capex well that's true it's doing it ai fuel yeah they all cause they all cause the problems but generally actually government big government spend and um particularly government spend with handouts uh we've we've seen the sugar rush handouts often cause inflation at least for a period and that's because money has escaped the debt system and there's different types of debt in this world but one of the ones that really causes inflation is of course the cash handout and in australia we've had plenty of stimulus and then on top of stimulus you have really high intake figures and then what that does is it creates excess demand and then of course all economics everything in the markets just supply demand you know when a stock goes up really just ask yourself it is supply demand people don't want to sell it to you at that price there's potentially less on the market and people are greedy and they demand it and they want it and it's like that in everything here so australia you know if we get a high a high inflation read there's a good chance that we might need to push higher based on the rba's kind of statements and the reserve bank basically said something like oh yeah we think unemployment's okay it's not too bad yet but we need to get we've got a little bit more work to do on that inflation guys so yeah they don't like it now we go to french 10 years have a look at these french 10 years because this all is going into the market at the moment french 10 years still out of control at five percent and if you bring up the u.s 10 year look at this the u.s rate is actually if we do it to regular is actually underneath the french rate now and we haven't seen that since didn't put labels on this so you guys can see it oh wow it's been a long time yeah so the last cross technically was over here and it's a long time ago so this is probably telling us one thing and what's the us here's a good question for all of you brainiacs in the in the uh chat here and also thank you to almost thousand people are joining us through the platforms remember to like the stream does help us out post comments everything uh really helps out guys appreciate you the french 10 years being above the tenure the u.s tenure with the tenure in the u.s coming down what's that telling us about markets why is it coming down is it coming down because inflation has stopped do you anyone here think inflation's finished [00:32:23] Speaker ?: uh yeah yeah i understand but all of this has to do with they think it's coming out of of [00:32:37] Speaker 1: of exceptional growth they peak out growth though ugly um but yeah i get your comment don't worry about that man i remember as well central bank printing doesn't necessarily create the same level of inflation that people say so it's not that is the meme for years but that's not really the true cause generally the cause of inflation is multi-faceted how about btc yeah we'll check it out in a moment so people saying here it's risk france does have printing press doesn't have the printing press usa does yeah so to have the central bank you know basically the world denomination the central currency is very powerful but in this case you've got us tenure coming down due to maybe concerns over slowdown in ai and you've got the french yields going up concerns over risk of sovereignty so i think it's actually the same story here's a risk of slowdown and you would usually see the french yields come down as well but over here it's a risk of actual risk so it's it's pretty crazy these are real canaries guys that we just haven't seen in the markets and i'll load a couple up here for you so you can see it so we'll do both for high yield here and we've noticed before mags you don't need to do that we'll get rid of the bollinger here so if we go both for high yield here for a second go to a daily you might notice it's spiking pretty high and last time we were in april and i'm telling you it is very rare to see bonds do this without the market actually caring and you might say yeah but tom the market's down the nasdaq's down that's true it is punishing the nasdaq a fair bit but the s p is still within three percent of highs so you've just got to remember that this being up is unusual and for a bull what you really want to see is this thing turned down uh for a bear well you just want this to keep going break this high this week keep going and then we lose 700 of the queues that kind of thing we we do that well you know bears might be looking at uh some negative gamma food energy etc is inflation yeah but it all comes back to supply demand ultimately and did you do hi tom i need your guidance [00:35:17] Speaker 2: oh okay [00:35:23] Speaker 1: inflation just starting in australia mostly small business and they're too slow to raise prices uh yeah i mean i think a lot of small businesses actually go unfortunately you have a struggle town moving forward here there's a difference between central banks printing money to purchase mbs and printing money to monetize debt and you say here when do you ever think uh yeah look it's again there's multiple things that cause it but government handouts uh pure stim um so you obviously see that instantly but ultimately remember like anything you know people still fight about the 1920s when you go and look up why did the 1929 crash happen and and it'll be like multiple historians still argue about why this really happened well we could argue it's debt we could argue it's a mixture of runaway prices that were unsustainable i would always just liken it to generally it's it's in the private sector it's in the private sector and it's usually in debt that would be probably the clearest way but there are so many reasons on the internet for why it happened but the easiest way is just to usually say well things got a bit carried away and there was debt everywhere so guys let's have a look at earnings this week let's check out each one the yields down the both are yield up uh basically what this is telling us is there's a significant level of risk that's coming from the bonds market we've seen that in price a little bit but it still hasn't freaked out took a look at gold before it's you know doing its thing we had a look at the start with oil that's making higher highs and higher lows notably the uk oil the brent that was moving through to 117 has dropped down to the first little level of support here today also noticed it fell straight into its four hour 50 exponential moving average here but it's coming like a freight train but still big closure last week for it but in general all these things going now somebody mentioned astutely that dr copper looks pretty crappy at the moment and this is something i'm monitoring uh because if we lose copper then all of a sudden we've lost what i think was a huge metals win for the ai trade and so far you you might notice that pretty much all this year we've just been going on about copper going up high highs high lows high highs high lows because it really did help to show us that yes we had inflation but we also probably had growth due to an ai boom and of course a ton of uh building but now we're seeing a slowdown in at least people saying there's a slowdown even in that let's quickly have a look at bitcoin here now it had a pretty bad weekend it fell underneath 80 000 it's regained it but it's underneath that previous node so it is a little weak here it could be trap levels what do you guys think i mean it's kind of exposed 74 to 76 the high here of 84 really proves a couple of points i think the close is the key look at the daily never closed above 84 so close is the key lower low formed here but bitcoin to hold this it kind of needs to rally fairly quickly a lot of inflow last week you would have seen on the channel heaps and heaps and heaps of inflow and that was absolutely wild uh the amount of money coming into the markets for bitcoin but at the same time the previous times we've seen that kind of ibid flow has often been bad turning points for the market this time i'm not so sure that's true but we haven't seen the proper price action and on the channel we always talk about price action data and flows we want to look at those things uh will says here bitcoin is so manipulated the stair step chart is dead giveaway uh you mean like this type of thing like a little flag or stair step yeah look bitcoin people celebrated exchange traded funds but really it just meant it was like wall street now so when i look at bitcoin i just approach it from the same concept as i do from a stock it it basically trades similarly now but for people trying to use the old systems and looking at on exchange stuff when options gets involved it changes everything so i think that's a huge part of it the whole economy according to kevin here is uh pivoting on conflict to ends so oil can start dropping yeah but the future oil contracts aren't showing that at this stage which is something unfortunately i've maintained since this whole thing happened all i did was look at history and history tells us that it goes on for i mean most people thought it was going to be a month and a half and and to be fair think about what actually happened at that point i kind of said probably going to be you know two years okay plus and the problem is that's what history will tell you all right most people thought three months i don't know where we're at now what is this six months seven months in but the issue is is that even though that happened even though oil spiked went down now it's gone back up what the stock market do it's still kept moving up it's really interesting i think to to note that you might have thought this and thought i know i'm going to short the market or something and that would have been a very poor decision so yeah just because you know something or you think you know something or you have you know history on your side for it remember that's why you have to find price action data flows you actually need the market to do it you need market to to give you some kind of flow if it doesn't your idea is just an idea it's not necessarily a um a position of any kind and i i think that's unfortunately where a lot of retail and a lot of us go wrong you know again i've been i've been somebody that's done this before i know what it feels like you know i've come up with a great conclusion not that that's a great conclusion but i've come up with a great conclusion on other things i've been correct and yet the market did the opposite so you know the market might have gone all the way up all the way down against what my position was but my position was actually in the end correct and that's because i you didn't you were blinded to not see the counter to that so of course what's the counter to you know maybe this this thing going on for longer well the counter to that would be yeah but ai spend man yeah but llms man yeah but copper yeah but this this this this this growth growth growth growth growth so yeah you just got to be careful of that world markets not much to really say about these um yeah there's just not much going on you look outside the us right now it's been pretty bad i mean chinese markets obviously dropped hong kong csi 300 here's the hang saying down at support show you the csi 300 it's absolutely fallen off a cliff outside of its weekly bollinger it's rebounded a little bit here but still quite struck quite weak so to summarize for anyone's coming in s p 760 is put support what was put supporting out 750 but the spy is sitting there the queues are at that's all important 700 just above it on the queues and we've got cross correlation through semiconductors but we do have the week of the weak ones still doing badly western digital core wave not doing well semiconductors holding up so let's move over to the mag 7 because we have three majors here coming in but let's start by looking at meta and i think meta was a case of understand your technical and yeah the price kind of showed something very nasty and it probably comes back to having the patience because to me when i saw that result i thought yeah it looked all right did anyone think the meta result was okay i mean to me it was like just a averagely good result yet the market had already punished the stock coming into it it rallied in futures after hours and then got dumped back down and i think this is probably the concern because again that's telling me that the market which trades 12 to 18 months away is seeing something if they continue to see that this week the mags will drop and if the mags drops and we don't get the right earnings could be in trouble let's have a look at microsoft software being the best sector of the last three months nothing has been better than software of the majors well where's it sitting guys right at that critical resistance previous week highs tons of resistance around here all right let's read a couple of [00:44:35] Speaker 2: comments to do [00:44:44] Speaker 1: i haven't even started being dumouristic here europe is facing worse time than both the world wars in the coming decade oh man that sounds pretty scary bro the entire premise of the tech boom is that eventually all the borrowing can be passed on to consumers consumers are already maxed out on spending capability what do you think of that one guys it's a good comment it's fair i mean k wave 90 obviously tapped a bit according to the stats anyway 10 doing well do you think they'll ever pay back anytime soon i'll tell you what you want me to share you a chart that i've been getting ready for one of my talks you want me to show you how i think how i think this all happens for at least some of these businesses not saying all but at least some of them i'll show it to you in a second will ai expand the pie ai is an excellent growth curve adoption concept because what creates growth productivity is a big component and ai allows extremely intelligent people and everyone else as well but all of you who are extremely intelligent to ultimately become more productive and you i would think it's hard pressed for you to tell me that ai which can create slop but because you're productive you you don't uh create slot with it that ai is actually helping to augment your life now it's kind of scary because the more productive you become the worst possible your life gets as well if you know what i'm saying like you're always doing something you always have all this stuff and i think people are moving away from that so i think really smart people will use ai and then at the same time we'll we'll try to disconnect from it as much as possible in our own free time but that is a huge component here uh tom what do you use it for i use it to summarize basic news for me like in terms of fine stuff um so it might find some stories for me give me like a couple of alerts about those things each day it's very helpful for that i use it sometimes to summarize articles for me as well just to see what's in them so i can get the key points i think it's very helpful for that and i think it's good for also taking some data and running quick visual studies on it as well i mean look people use it a lot more effectively than me i mean people can code in it i've seen some big brains in the community do some crazy stuff with it so look for me the whole thing is it's also extremely good for history for me so i love it for history although i cross-check it but yes productivity is a huge component of of this stuff now in the poll you as always you voted 50 50 so 52 of you are bearish this week which is interesting i thought maybe a bit more bullish because we hit cross correlation and 48 of you are bullish so that is that is extremely close there ai works great for coding otherwise not much well there's a that law that says that the future is going to be about how much code you can write so if you think about what stopped extremely smart people from making amazing businesses and for anyone that's a bear you need to think about this before i show you this next chart people can make businesses again in their garage or their home this opens up amazing opportunities for future amazing technology and that's thanks to taking away the bottleneck which was you have to go to an angel investor and then you have to hire 10 coders and then those coders code you everything and set up all the things you want so really we're we're in a world of abundance in terms of great companies and i think you've got to be excited about america's future from this aspect really smart people around the world tend to go there when they go there they start businesses and these businesses can create next apple or next google so you know when all of the dust settles from whatever this hardware data center thing is going on the opportunities in the product side in the service side is going to be wild i i really believe that i think there's going to be some cyber prime businesses and they're going to be absolutely nuts so first up microsoft here we've got this resistance we have of course market slammed into this two highs here and then so we've got one two and then a third and then of course uh rejections of each one of those but it's at critical into earnings and that's where it usually will be let's have a look at google now a few people were talking google bullish last week but to me there is nothing much going on on this chart and you know i like google in fact google became my next microsoft about a year and a bit ago remember micro dollars was one of my favorites then it became google in terms of my own personal favorites i just like them and then now i'm just kind of sitting there saying i don't know what's what uh i like in any of these businesses at the moment at these prices but let me refresh this why is this lagging all that code and not a single engineer can explain what was written recipe for success not uh well that is true as well the slop component of the back when you don't know what what just happened that's a problem as well yeah when you can't explain it and that's why software as a service has come back and it's what i kind of argued for a while it's great comment there software as a service has one thing that businesses need and people need that is the ability to fix bugs and the ability to keep it consistent and not to release some kind of crazy slot version of it that then goes and hacks their email or something you know what i mean like this type of thing is a real risk and you'll see it over the next coming years we've already started to see it where people are installing these codes that people do and then all of a sudden it breaks and then their whole system is broken garbled and destroyed and that's kind of why you pay these large businesses to to not make that mistake so yeah google support sure but early days i think this chart doesn't look too good we'll see how the earnings comes and then amazon well it's been absolutely lackluster i'm going to pull you a fixed range before i show you this other chart look at this we're just trading at the start of a really heavy amount of trade volume so at the moment look that the winners of the last couple of weeks have been your health cares i mean it's been pretty damn good i think health care has just been trundling along beating the spy of course it's been your energy stocks you know i've been pouting and talking about these for a while in terms of just higher highs and higher lows it's just price action really it's not really um anything else uh and then you know you've also got i guess your uh most recent pickup kind of price actions which have been staples which have improved versus the other sectors so look at these sectors better sure they've moved um they've been kind of what's stronger in the recent maybe couple of weeks along with software which was the last three months i think it was the best performing stock area and it shows because back in may was where it all began and then it all began again in august and what is that guys at this stage what kind of market is that before we go to the chart read some comments while we wait for that one quick reminder if you're in sydney australia if you're joining us here at 10 24 pm at night check out the pin comment description down below got a workshop coming up soon it's our second ever i'm telling you they're worth it guys they're absolutely fantastic to meet you guys at uh and they are early bird sale at the moment so if you're in sydney australia early december come along it'd be great to see you there i always appreciate you guys software have a look here it's a dull style market yeah so when you've got a dull market it's just making a series of high highs high lows you know my theory on dull i don't go against dull why because a dull market tends to face rip at some point and that's kind of what treasuries did if you think about it reversed copilot helped me find critical decision nodes in software so i could change something controlled by the software i'm not doubting it helps you that's a massive head and shoulders on software come on man oh man we don't want to be doing that now we don't want to be doing too bearish on this look that's that's like that beam where it's got the guy and he's like you know he just sees ta hey i love it i love it i love it and i don't say you're wrong you could be absolutely right but damn dude don't be hating on my software like that come on now headed shoulders it's a massive shoulders this dude has a small head but he has big shoulders i'll tell you what it is fun oh but i love it you know i'm laughing i'm loving it big ass head and shoulders the best thing ai has done has been consumer advocacy look at what they did to sony and their digital ownership fight we made playstation 5 at home oh yeah well i saw that people are coding games and stuff into it's everything else all right let's have a look at this chart i want to bring up so i just want to kind of go back you think of electricity i wrote a piece on this 1920s electricity amazing no one was ever bullish enough on electricity it changed the game imagine if we didn't have it okay it would be a very different world now let's go back to the 1990s the power is mobile phones before the internet was mobile phones and you think wow these are these mobile phones i can see it everyone's going to buy one okay everyone's going to own a mobile phone everyone's going to have one in in the world and then we're all going to use them and become addicted to them you fast forward if you knew the future if you knew the future and you thought okay i can just see a glimpse of the future the internet's on the phone you've got a podcast on the phone you've got video on the phone you've got live streaming on the phone you've got shopping on the phone everything's on the phone yeah and then you go back into the 90s you don't know everything okay you're not going to know everything but you're going to think everything's on the phone you might think that it would be a glorious idea in 1998 or 1999 to buy at&t wouldn't that be a fantastic idea and back then you can't say you wouldn't think that because look at this chart you would have thought yeah hell yeah man uh but it's the story is all this time because in the 1920s was electricity no one was bullish enough on it yet electricity stocks did not perform for the next 100 years as well as the market and so if they did have periods they went over but in general you'd bought the wrong time you kind of got stabbed it wasn't very good and then of course talent telcos they've been notorious since their highs back in the dot-com boom and yeah there's been divs and you can do an adjustment uh actually i think we'll be adjust this let's have a look here let's get the adjustment there's the adjustment okay so it's not you know let's let's be real all right let's be real it's not all shocking and if you bought that peak you still made a hundred percent in div however you know you compare that to the smp you're not going to be very happy so i think the point here that i'm trying to get at is that at some point there will be these semiconductor stocks and that point may have already happened and if that point already happens then some stocks won't won't recover and the reason is just purely because it's a hardware phase and that's what happens in tech it's a hardware phase nokia crash from a good start they all do and that's that's the that's the nature they get carried away they go crazy cisco's the classic for the internet of course and i just all i'm trying to say is it happens the rail happened semiconductors happening and if you ask me if you come back to any stream that we've asked for years what was the best performing sector and therefore the one we always often looked at well it was going to be of course um generally speaking we always saw it as uh semiconductors because semis were insane but yeah this is the problem we face now with telcos so it's a really interesting question are we heading for this guys what do you think in the chat maybe not yet maybe it's in the future maybe this is just this bit here and then it goes and does this but if i superimpose these i think they'll look pretty similar chinese stock market has been in a bear market us to follow yeah chinese stock market is very weak yeah nike bottoms when tech topped in march 2001 oh yeah let's have a look at nike poor nike it doesn't do very well at the moment me thinks i still can't believe i went to a shoe shop and they didn't even sell nikes or we call it nike what am i doing over here in 2021 huh bottomed oh i bottomed here no zero oh yeah that's fair there was the bottom oh it's so bad right now right now but at least it's come back a little bit [00:59:32] Speaker 2: mm [00:59:34] Speaker 1: march 2000 i saw an mk kevin says telcos are my airline stocks tom i can't stand them jeff says they're not comparable technologies in my opinion i don't still don't see how llms can provide this amazing value we've been doing this for almost five to six years where are the productivity improvements in the economy i think they are there and they will be there the mobile phone remember the first time the mobile phone came in it was just people driving around their cars and it allowed them to kind of have this massive brick in their car and then it moved to of course handhelds that were too expensive and no one could afford them i think look i don't think there's different i think there's definitely productivity here i just think that the reality is can they get the money back in time and that's what the market started to ask and this is a very important question because it didn't ask it three months two months ago two months ago all calm all good you remember back in march we saw that fall in the s&p there were no bonds concerns the bonds were like they were having a dance first time in 18 months the bonds have come the bonds were not here until just recently my bull signal for nike was my boomer father-in-law ending his boycott of them because they're so cheap now bottom is in let me slow this chart up here for a second guys just have a quick look [01:01:08] Speaker 2: at nike wow wow wow better look at meta time [01:01:26] Speaker 1: is it up did it finally did it pounce let me have a look i i saw it before i didn't say there was it was up but maybe it is yeah so nike's been falling and falling and falling and dull and dull and dull to the bottom end and then now it rallied off i tell you what look at this volume here is a big volume day look at this last big volume these are significant volume days so you have this with the big gap this one here is a big gap down this one here was big gap down this was a gap up ah big gap up but uh yeah i look i agree it's a very interesting point for this stock and hence why i've actually talked about it twice but yeah it's very very tough meta's up six percent okay what's the reason to get upgraded what was it up six percent i missed it before [01:02:24] Speaker 2: hey you said it's up six percent it's up two percent where'd you get six from did i read that wrong [01:02:38] Speaker 1: how many trillions and hundreds of trillions potentially needed to be refinanced at five percent six percent seven percent eight percent nine percent over the ten years that's good points again the earnings cliff or the the refinance cliff next year probably the question really is for the llms but the main thing is remember i don't believe in black swans but i also don't believe that whatever we're talking about generally becomes the public opinion is usually correct so in stocks i've usually found that the thing that's talked about the most when it becomes a crescendo it's kind of like it could be actually a turning point what do i think of spacex i think it's sitting between a resistance and a support six dollars oh okay what's up 15 but yeah 2.45 it's not uh not too crazy hey we'll look at spacex let's have a quick look here dollar index also bouncing off the 20 this week xlp where's spacex should be in here there it is so spacex yeah look we've got this massive put around 140 and we've seen a few times now getting close to that 170 seems like a struggle for spacex it had an earnings that kind of hit i guess what the market wanted obviously it got that ai earnings but people will probably now start to speculate on some kind of merger or whatever it's meant to go on with tesla and i just think it's an ipo and when an ipo comes out you know my theory pump fall rally blah blah blah come back 12 to 18 months often is historically what's happened metas has holes in the balance sheet says larry okay interesting meta got smashed for no substantial reason last week up 2.6 percent pre-market yeah but that thing has had the nasty candle didn't it did you see elon's extremely bearish hyperscaler comment i can't imagine the market won't digest that this week especially nvidia uh what was it you can let me know and i'll check it out history shows from sticky monkey that great powers and empires frequently enter periods of invert irreversible decline or collapse when their debt servicing costs surpass their military budgets um yeah i've got a different theory on it but i definitely think that's part of the story i've got like some interesting reads past that point i guess that could happen but let's just say i always go one of the you're talking about a very long process concept if you're correct the the thing with that is it can take ages so i always ask you know here's a question and i ask this to the chat right now market falls 40 tomorrow which market are you buying every market in the world falls 40 tomorrow which market are you buying 40 one day bang what market are you buying guys chuck it in the chat let's see uh i don't quite know what that means arrange but i i rang great but basically i would say that i think like of the llms and ai businesses didn't mit say 95 will die all right so you guys said pepsi gold yeah you can ask any market us us us us us us us us us us lead s p xlp singapore market argentina korean market singapore market that's two for singapore market interesting i've never seen singapore market get so much love brazil market you already got that today almost jeff oh no oh no oh no i think for anyone that doesn't know oh no the brazil market's down 27 or 25 and a half now and it won't take ages the us government owes 25 of its income and interest on debt the current rate of increase that leaves less than five years until 100 of income is interest on debt uh again you're saying irreversible i guess the argument is what is it irreversible decline or is it the end if they're different different arguments but uh yeah look there there are three ways to get rid of currency debt inflated away just say i'm not paying it basically just say yeah not paying it guys or create a second currency or all three maybe could happen yeah i don't want to pay these guys and i'm going to inflate it away and i'm also going to create another currency whoever said gold is smart i'm going to buy the new zealand market 40 off that's bullish guys i think it's bullish in yours you know if i asked that a few years ago i'm telling you it would be 95 s p nasdaq but now you yeah now there's all sorts of markets singapore bots in the chat hey like singapore market's been pretty good i can't remember what the uh code for it is but i sometimes sometimes take a little gander at the singapore 30 and stuff it hasn't been good in the last couple weeks but you know it was very nice before that take a look at this yeah it's a very beautiful chart guys i'd argue that's been better than the s p in some ways at some points as well 100 recently it went crazy but yeah not always has it been like this and the singapore market obviously you know it likes to swing it's down 11 already but a lot of a lot of the asian markets are down pretty hard depends why the markets dropped 40 percent is it a meteor strike the terminator ai takeover or frozen orange juice futures i like that all right so to summarize here guys look we've got a market that's obviously struggling uh it is that cross correlation from at least the technical side 700 queues i'll show you again here 700 queues spy 7 760 the supports 700 queues and of course semiconductors cosby hynix everything you can kind of point and stick at that's technology all sitting around those key supports you've also got xlk that i've demonstrated in the normal daily show uh kind of sitting sitting around in this uh this weekly kind of 20. so look it's all all critical at these points you can kind of see why we lose these levels we go into negative gamma things get nasty pretty quickly what you've always got to think about is you know why'd it come down and this time it's come down because of concerns of growth and those concerns of growth are happening in the bonds market and that makes me always have a cause for concern so as always guys this week fed decision wednesday ecb stuff happening i think it was thursday if i remember rightly let's have a look here ecb stuff will now be important because of france so ecb press conference 9 45 new york time on thursday and then of course we've got a bunch of central banks coming out this week also quick reminder as well daylight savings for you guys in canada and us on sunday november the first but i mean this week will be earnings earnings we've got lots of earnings and it starts on tuesday with sk hynix and seagate and then we kick things off with big tech microsoft google we looked at those two microsoft at resistance google who knows and then amazon trading around that kind of tight range in terms of sectors that have done better it's still been energy recently healthcare staples they've been the better sectors at least from the uh high highs and high lows and the question is can we regain tech and that's going to come back to i think magnificent seven so you'll want to be watching that look at these supports so every single thing slam the supports now as just a courtesy to you guys i want to let you know i will be making vids all this week then i'll be going down to probably about three vids a week for two weeks guys i'm just taking a small break with my family i basically never do that but i want to tell you uh now we'll still be creating content so don't worry and of course i'll bring you timely updates for everything and i do appreciate each and every one of you following along but i want to give you a heads up for that and also just to let you know that these monday live streams uh will stop for a couple of weeks all right now of course when they come back i'll let you know and i'll have them i'll have them live and ready on the channel but uh yeah just a bit of an announcement that's going to happen i will still have the closed shows multiple times a week i'll still give you the weekends for sure because that's the most important as you know that's where you plan and you have your ideas but i want to say thank you appreciate all of you guys for putting the comments in each video for giving us some love for the thumbs up and everything and i know everyone says that but i've been doing this for a long time like six years now pretty much every day uh and you guys have stuck with it and i i really do i find it amazing when i catch you guys uh in real life or here on the streams or in the daily shows in the comments you make me laugh i'll tell you what some of your comments are funny so it is a market which is complex this is the best thing in the world in terms of you know if you're in the hobby of stocks and markets and everything it's just so cool to always be figuring out these puzzles to learn something new each day and a lot of it i learned from you guys as well as you know my my history in the in the business along with of course doing all these vids over time and just constantly researching i mean i put in a lot of time just to find stuff uh to share with you so look it goes much deeper we always learn and i think you know one of the things that i got my ass kicked early days you know all the time ago 17 years ago by the market and what i learned was you just have to learn from that mistake you do that make that small change and the difference is not actually as extreme as you think between someone that's good and someone that's really good but it's those little things that you pick up and i think a lot of you do this which is awesome um no worries uh yeah won't be time off i'll still be creating don't worry but uh be a little bit less so thank you yep now we're still here during peak earnings don't worry all this week anthropics s1 going to tank markets this morning boys rip when is the anthropic uh result i mean do we actually know the date yet we don't do we anyone know that staples staple safer yeah you know i i wrote about this a long time ago but if you actually look at a staples chart and you put it on a monthly and does anyone see an observation here let's see how many of you are eagle-eyed about this chart we're not because no one really looks at it on the monthly what do you see here i wrote a newsletter about it by the way shout out description newsletter newsletter newsletter newsletter newsletter guys anyone see it what's really funny about this chart um it's gonna be before thanksgiving i will i'll be back full time anyway after that but i'll be still covering it can't can't sleep on that 9 a.m this morning really holding the 50. the moving out i like this comment the moving averages are chads yeah that's true that 50 is a beast guys i mean it's think about this it's gone through 15 16 fall in markets hit the 50 hit the 50. 2020 pulled straight back up to the 50. so that's the 2020. 2022 hit the 50. hit the 50. i tell you what imagine if this dropped under the 50. i'd be like that no that wouldn't be good guys yeah i love that picture uh so yeah 50 50 exponential on on the xlp i wrote about it once before but that's a wild chart follows m2 guess so 50 a lot of you guys saw it that's good when you go away markets crash that has been historically part of it all right everybody thank you so much you have a fantastic start to the week i'll see you at the close today bringing you another vid and we'll check out what's going on with everything but i think anthropic likely should be after late november and i'm excited to uh to cover that as well so yeah guys who bonds involved in the markets now for the first time weird trinity staples utilities healthcare and staples all picking up and at the same time the s p still extremely resilient uh down barely i mean you look at a chart like this i could see why someone would say why is that why are you even caring but i always pay attention when it's bonds and because we're the thick of earnings what a week it's going to be catch guys bye for now