Midterms 2026 — Elon Musk Warns of ‘END OF DEMOCRACY’ If Democrats Win Midterms — US Politics LIVE

[0:00] it. There's more blue than red. And so our final projection, our final House forecast is 237 seats [0:06] for the Dems, 198 seats for the Republicans. Look, this is the most likely forecast. I'm not saying [0:11] I'm going to be right on. It's going to be very interesting to see after the elections. We're [0:16] going to go back. We're going to see how close that this actually got. But at this point, [0:20] Democrats look like they're not just going to reach 218 seats. They're going to exceed it with [0:24] ease. Of course, I know the real reason, or at least I think I know the real reason that a lot [0:28] of you have tuned into this, and that is you want a Senate forecast. And we do have a final [0:33] Senate forecast, but this is obviously exhausting me. I've had a very long week, so a little mid-forecast [0:40] drink for me. I do enjoy a good cream soda. And there we go. Okay, so we're going to be projecting [0:48] out all of the Senate seats, all 35 Senate seats, all the states in yellow. We're going to fill them [0:56] on in. We're going to fill them on in. But before we do so, we have to understand just how hard it is [1:02] for Democrats, historically speaking, how hard it is for Democrats, and why Republicans at the [1:06] beginning of this cycle, we thought were in the catbird seat. And this is why. Take a look here. [1:10] Senate flips in states that the party lost by at least 10 points in the prior presidential election. [1:15] How many seats did they flip in non-special elections since 2011? That is, over the last 15 years, [1:21] they flipped zero, zero, zero. They flipped zero seats. And why is that so important? Because Democrats [1:28] Democrats need at least two. At least they need to flip at least two plus 10 Trump states in order [1:33] to win back the United States Senate. But here is where it gets really interesting. Here's where it [1:38] gets really interesting. Look at this. Okay, take a look at these key Senate race Dem poll margins at [1:44] this point, where Trump won by at least 10 points. You actually see a lot of blue on your screen. [1:49] Alaska, plus three. It would be interesting to see if the final polls actually end up matching the [1:53] results, given all the controversies there with the two Dan Sullivans. Ohio, Sherrod Brown, seeming to [1:59] do pretty gosh darn well at this point, leading by three points. The Democrat there trying to win [2:03] back a seat in the Senate. Of course, he is a former longtime incumbent. Texas, James Tallarico, [2:08] hoping to become the first United States Senator from Texas since 1988. He's up by three. Kansas, [2:15] which hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1932, when Babe Ruth looked to the bleachers and called [2:20] his shot in the 32 World Series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. And Iowa, whoo, you can't get any [2:26] closer than that. The Democrat Josh Turek in the polling up by the smallest, smallest of margins [2:30] of point. Should be noted, all these races are really tight right now, but they do seem to be [2:35] leaning slightly Democratic, slightly Democratic. Now, what could possibly cause this? Because Trump won [2:40] in these states by at least 10 points just two years ago. Well, my dear friends, it's something that [2:47] should have Republicans nationwide picking up the phone, picking up the phone. Hello? Hello? What [2:52] is going on, White House? What is going on? And here's the deal. Trump, despite winning all those [2:58] states by at least 10 points, is now underwater by double digits in all of them. In Texas, he's 13 [3:03] points underwater. Alaska, 15 points underwater. Deep down there, I mean, my goodness gracious, [3:08] you can get in the Pacific Ocean. You can't get as far south as Donald Trump is right now. [3:12] How about in Iowa, the cornfields of Iowa? He's way underneath those cornfields. Look at that, [3:18] 16 points underwater. Hanses, 16 points underwater. And Ohio, he's down there in the Ohio River, [3:25] my dear friends. He's 16 points underwater. Woof. It's no bueno, not good news. Now, here's the thing [3:33] to keep in mind, though. I know a lot of you are wondering about this, and it is really worth [3:37] this asterisk. And this gives hope. This gives hopes to Republicans. Look at this. Okay. You all [3:45] know, if you're watching this video, that polling has tended to underestimate Republicans, and that [3:50] is true, especially in Trump-1 states. Look at this. The GOP has beat their final Senate poll average [3:55] from 2018 to 2024 by 4.1 points in the states Trump won in the prior election. We're looking at the [4:02] close states, the states that in the final Senate polling average were all within five. And that is the [4:06] case with all, with all of these states. I mean, look at this. 3, 3, 3, 3, less than one. So when we [4:13] see that and we see, oh, wow, that 4.1, all of that is within the historic range in which Republicans [4:19] could potentially win. And that's why this map really, to me, tells an important story. This is [4:25] very possible. This is possible. Your 2026 Senate, if polls underestimate the GOP by force, by force [4:31] points, right, across the board. Look at that. You get Michigan. Michigan goes red. Iowa stays [4:37] red. Texas is red. Alaska is red. Kansas stays red. And you just see that it is quite possible [4:46] that Republicans do, in fact, hold on to the United States Senate. But that's not the full [4:51] story. Because it's not just about Trump and his unpopularity. It is also about how unpopular [4:57] these different Senate candidates are, the Republicans in these deeply red states. Look [5:02] at this. They're all double digits underwater. Dan Sullivan, Ashley Hinson in Iowa, Roger Marshall [5:08] in Kansas, John Husted in Ohio, Kem Paxton. Kem Paxton, 29 points underwater. What the heck [5:15] is that? That makes him by far the most unpopular GOP Senate nominee in Texas this century. I will [5:21] also note that this Roger Marshall number, minus 17, I did the math, that also makes Roger Marshall [5:26] at this late point in the campaign, the most unpopular GOP nominee for Senate in Kansas. [5:32] Now, it goes beyond that, though, right? Because we're talking about history potentially being [5:37] made. And I know a lot of folks have had a lot of interest in the Texas Senate race. And they'll [5:41] say, oh, yes, the polls have, you know, underestimated Republicans. Here's the deal, though. James [5:46] Tallarico's six-point lead is the best that any Democratic Senate nominee since 1988, when [5:51] Lloyd Benson was the last Democrat to win a Senate seat, was polling at this late point in [5:56] the campaign. So this is truly historic. Beto O'Rourke was behind at this point back in the [6:00] 2018 cycle. Now, I've been talking about the plus 10 Trump states, right? I've been talking [6:05] about them. But there's also another Republican-held Senate seat where we've had an incumbent who [6:10] has outperformed their polling in the past. And I'm, of course, talking about Susan Collins [6:14] in Maine. Susan Collins in Maine. Her net popularity, though, in Maine right now is the worst it has [6:19] been heading into an election this entire century, in the 2000s. Look at this. Twelve points underwater. [6:27] So, yes, Susan Collins has outperformed her polling in the past, but she has never been as unpopular [6:32] as she is right now. And this is what we're seeing across the map. We're seeing historic anomalies, [6:39] not just that Trump is unpopular, but these GOP nominees are historically unpopular. So what is, [6:46] in fact, the most likely Senate scenario? Well, I can tell you that the chance of it has gone way up. [6:53] It has gone way up from where we were when we made our first forecast back on August the 13th. Look [6:58] at this. Up 19 points, nearly up 20 points. I guess 19 would be one, a four, and a five. Up 19 points [7:05] according to my aggregation of models. And where does that leave us? Where does that leave us in terms [7:11] of the most likely Senate outcome? Well, drum roll, if you please. Here it is. Chance that the [7:17] Democrats win the Senate, this is the most likely outcome, is now up to 71 percent. 71 percent. I [7:24] never thought I'd see the day early on in this campaign where Democrats would have a 71 percent [7:29] chance of winning back the United States Senate. I mean, that is a huge chance, but it's still not [7:35] 100 percent. Republicans still have a 29 percent chance of holding on to the United States Senate, [7:42] and that ain't nothing. That ain't nothing, because a good baseball hitter, right, gets on what? 30 percent, [7:48] bats 300, although baseball players have been getting hits less and less. But that's right near [7:53] that. That's right near that. And of course, we can remember the Wade Boggs of the world, the George [7:56] Bretts of the world. They were easily breaking 300 batting averages, getting on at least 30 percent of the [8:01] time, all of the time. So look, this is still, this is still a quite a high possibility, right? You see [8:07] players who have 290 batting averages getting on a whole heck of a lot. Now, this is 71 percent, [8:13] right? But I promised you specific seat forecast, specific seat forecast. So here we go. This is it. [8:20] This is the specific seat forecast. And I'm going to get nerdy for a second here. But first, what are we [8:25] talking about? We are talking about 52 Democrats, 52 Democrats compared to 48 Republicans. [8:31] compared to 48 Republicans. So Democrats, not just getting the 51 seats necessary, but getting [8:36] the 52, a clear majority of United States Senate seats. Now, if you're looking at your map here, [8:42] you'll see, look, Texas goes blue. Kansas goes blue. Alaska, yes, Alaska at this point goes blue. [8:50] We'll have to wait and see. Ohio goes blue to get the flip in North Carolina. Michigan stays blue. [8:56] And Maine, yes, even in Maine, you get a flip. But here's the thing I want you to keep in mind [9:01] as we look at this. The race in these states, Maine, Kansas, Iowa stays red, and Alaska are all [9:13] very, very, very close. It wouldn't surprise me if any of these seats went the other way. [9:19] Now, if you're truly a nerd at home, you might be tallying up and you go, [9:22] Harry, wait a minute. It's actually 53 seats that you're showing that Democrats will win in terms of [9:29] the seats they currently have and then the seats that they would gain in this election. [9:33] Here's the thing. We're talking probabilistically so that one of these states, one of these states [9:38] that currently that I am saying are going to go blue may not go blue. I mean, the race in Kansas [9:42] right now in the polling, in the projections, it seems to be very, very tight. Maybe that seat [9:48] actually goes red. We don't know. We're talking probabilistically. And when we add it up, [9:51] it's 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans. So that is right now the final seat forecast. We'll go back [9:58] after the election, see how it works out individually. But I'm putting it on the line [10:02] right here. And with that, we head to my favorite section. Yes. Yes. It's the bonus section. [10:11] Do, do, do. I do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do. Boo, boo. Look, I know some of you saying [10:17] House, Senate. But what about the guz? You're truly a nerd. You're saying you're interested in [10:21] governors outside of your state. But don't worry. I got you covered. I got you covered. [10:27] Chance that a majority of guz are Democrats. And this comes from Cal, she's CNN's prediction [10:31] market partner. And look at this. The chance, up like a rocket. Up like a rocket. After the [10:37] midterms, you know, back on March 30th, it was just a 27% chance. Just a 27% chance. Now, [10:43] what are we talking about? We're talking about an 83% chance. An 83% chance. So at this point, [10:49] it looks more likely than not, whether you look at the prediction markets like this, [10:53] whether you look at the polling data, whether you look at the race raters, that most governors, [10:58] the majority of governors after this election will, in fact, be Democrats. And that is really rare. [11:03] That is really rare in modern history. Because look at this. Look at this. How about the times [11:08] that Dems held a majority of guz seats in the past 32 years? It's just 12. Just 12% of the time. [11:15] It is truly rare. So if, in fact, the projections do come true, we're looking at something that some [11:22] of you have maybe only seen very little in your lifetime. I bet a lot of our audience has only [11:26] seen it for four years in their lifetime. I mean, we're talking 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, [11:32] when Democrats lost that governor's majority, those governor's mansions majority. Now, look, [11:39] as we look forward, I want to push the ball forward a little bit, right in our bonus slide section. [11:42] Look ahead after the midterms. If the projections are right, I do wonder how the Democratic majorities [11:48] are going to like their voters back at home or put them into office. Because, you know what, [11:52] there's been a lot of Dem on Dem crime. Democrats are expecting a lot, a lot from their leaders, [11:57] if, in fact, they do win the majorities. Because look at this. Net approval of congressional Dem leaders. [12:02] You know, the last time you had a Trump midterm, it was plus 19 points. Look where it is now. [12:06] Way down there. It's minus 12 points. This is Democrats on Democrats, for goodness sake. [12:11] Democrats don't even like their own leaders. They're sick of their own leaders. And that puts [12:16] a lot of pressure on Democrats if, in fact, they do get into power. And there's one leader [12:20] they specifically don't like. And that is this gentleman. And that is the senior senator from [12:25] the great state of New York, my home state, Chuck Schumer. His net popularity rating among Democrats [12:31] is minus five points. I went back and looked at all the polling that I could since 1985. [12:37] That's over 40 years of polling. And you know what that is? He's the least popular Democratic [12:43] leader in the United States Senate since at least 1985. Well, folks, that's it. I'm done. [12:51] This has been a lot. My voice is running a little low. Oh, no, wait a minute. I got it back. [12:55] The mic helped me a lot. And with that, folks, you know what I say? Peace out. [13:00] New this morning, the Cook Political Report shifted 12 House races in the Democrats' direction. [13:08] The Senate Democrats are feeling, we think, better than they have before. But on this Halloween [13:15] Eve, why, perhaps, should Democrats be scared? With us now, CNN chief data analyst Harry [13:24] and with some spooky data, spooky data for Democrats with just days to go. [13:29] Yeah. Okay. So if we're talking about what Democrats need in order to win back the United [13:34] States Senate, right, let's just start with the baseline. They need to win in states that Donald [13:40] John Trump didn't just win two years ago, but won by double digits. And why would that potentially be [13:46] difficult? Because I want you to take a look at here. We're going to look at all the non-special [13:49] elections. And take a look at Senate flips in states that the party lost by 10 or more points [13:55] in the last presidential election. The number is zero, zero, zero since 2011. And Democrats need [14:04] to flip at least two, two states in which Donald Trump won by double digits just two years ago. [14:10] It simply put, has not happened in 15 years. It hasn't happened, and they need it to happen. [14:16] Exactly right. Which is why it should scare Democrats. [14:18] How has the polling been in these Trump states? [14:22] Yeah. Okay. So it simply put, hasn't happened. And there have been times in which the polls [14:27] actually suggested, hey, Republicans might actually lose in some of these Trump won states. [14:33] And then it didn't happen. And we've seen it happen time in and time out. Okay. GOP has beat [14:38] the final Senate poll average by 4.1 points in states Trump won in the prior presidential election. [14:46] And we're looking at the closed states. We're looking at the closed states. And this is one [14:49] thing to keep in mind, which is we look at states like Ohio. We look at states like Texas. We look [14:54] at states like Alaska. We look at states like Kansas. And if you took a polling average in all of them, [15:00] well, they're all within this range. They're all within this range. So you look at this, [15:04] and you look at this, and you say there have been zero of these flips. And you go, [15:08] ooh, are the polls potentially wrong again? And that's the type of thing that gives a little [15:13] silence to Republicans. And it's, I think, a spooky, spooky, spooky for Democrats. [15:18] Okay. So just as an academic exercise, put this number over the polling averages we've seen in [15:24] these key states. Yeah. And this is exactly it. So, okay. 2026 Senate, if the polls underestimate the [15:30] GOP by four plus points in these Trump-won states, look at this. Michigan is red. We got Ohio being [15:37] red. We have Iowa being red. We have Kansas being red. We have Texas being red. We have Alaska being [15:45] red. And that math is Republicans hold on to the United States Senate 52 to 48. And that even keeps [15:51] Maine blue, where Susan Collins has had her own ability to outperform the polling data as it comes [15:57] in at the end, as we saw back in 2020. So if the past polling errors hold in these Trump-won states, [16:03] then all of a sudden Republicans are able to hold on to the United States Senate and with ease. [16:07] So temper expectations, maybe, for Democrats there. What are the prediction markets saying [16:11] about all this? Yeah. And this is the thing. Look, the prediction markets, take a look at the [16:13] cash prediction market. Yes, the Democrats are favored 69% Republicans with the 31% chance to win the [16:20] United States Senate. But look, 31% things happen all of the time. You know, Johnny Bay and I were [16:25] talking about this before we came on. You think about the NBA Finals last year. The Knicks came [16:30] back against the Spurs. And let me tell you, in a lot of those games, their chance of winning [16:34] those games was significantly less than 31%. Harry N., again, food for thought with just days to go [16:39] before the election. A lot of news this morning. Happy Halloween. Happy Halloween. What are you [16:43] going as? I'm going as a professional television personality, which is very different from what I [16:49] normally am. Yeah, you're going to have to change quite a bit for that. Harry N., thank you very much. [16:52] Thank you. President Trump is taking his campaign tour back to Florida shortly as new polling finds [16:57] the fight to be that state's next governor is nearly tied. New York Times-Siena poll shows [17:01] Democrat David Jolly trailing Trump ally Byron Donalds by four points, barely missing the poll's [17:07] 3.9% margin of error. Meantime, the same poll in the Senate race finds Republican incumbent Ashley [17:13] Moody holding a modest six-point lead over Democrat Angie Nixon. The president rallying with Moody and [17:19] Donalds tonight. Let's discuss with Evan Power, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party. [17:24] Evan, thank you so much for sharing part of your afternoon with us. I want to start by asking you [17:28] about a post from Governor Ron DeSantis this morning, posting that Republicans are underperforming [17:34] in Polk County in the key I-4 corridor. He recently also said that turnout is not as strong [17:40] as Republicans would like at this point, that the party has work to do. What is your response? [17:45] Well, I think we do have work to do. If the vote was held today, we would not be where we want to [17:51] be. But the fact is, our voters choose to vote on Election Day. You're also seeing people go to [17:56] early voting today at a very high number. At the end of the day, we have a 1.5 million voter [18:01] advantage here in Florida. And when our voters vote on Election Day, it will tell the tale that we will [18:06] have those wins. And the fact that people think four- and six-point wins in Florida are now narrow [18:11] shows how far the state has really come, because they used to be closer than that on the regular [18:15] election schedule. But now we're going to win big, and our voters are going to turn out on Election [18:19] Day. So to your point about 1.5 million registered voters, you were further along four years ago than [18:27] at this point when it came to early voting. About 300,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats [18:33] had voted at this point. Today, only 76,000 more registered Republicans have voted. Why do you think [18:40] the numbers are lagging? Where are those voters now? Well, if you look at that same New York Times [18:46] poll that you cited on the state of the race, it said 25 percent of our voters who voted early [18:51] or by mail in the 2024 election were more likely to vote on Election Day this time. I think our voters [18:59] are fired up and ready to vote on Election Day, which is what the president's been asking them to do. [19:03] So I think we're starting to see those turn-up numbers kick in in early voting. But Tuesday, [19:07] we're going to have a big red day here in Florida. I want to ask you about [19:11] one particular issue in the Senate race. In a statement following the passage of the Big [19:16] Beautiful Bill, you thanked Senator Ashley Moody for championing the bill because it, quote, [19:21] gives ICE the resources it needs to deport violent criminal illegal aliens. Now, according to Track, [19:28] about 70 percent of those in ICE detention have no criminal conviction. That includes about 40,000 [19:34] people without a conviction detained before the bill passed. Are you concerned that Trump's [19:39] immigration policies are going to hurt turnout among Latino voters, which are crucial in Florida? [19:47] No, that's not what we're seeing in the polling here. If you look here in Florida, [19:50] immigration was the number one issue of the last election. And they wanted to get people out of [19:55] this country that were here illegally, especially those that are violent criminals, but people who [19:59] are here illegally by and large. So that is what the president of this administration has done. [20:03] And I think if you look at Miami, they are more concerned about Angie Nixon, who sided with the [20:10] Cuban regime, would not call them a dictatorship. And I think Angie Nixon, who's a member of the DSA, [20:15] should go to Cuba and live under the failed policies that she's advocating here in Florida. [20:21] I want to get to Angie Nixon in a moment, the Democratic senatorial candidate. She's denied [20:26] what you're accusing her of. But I want to go back for a moment because Republican Congresswoman [20:31] Maria Elvira Salazar of the 27th district has said that the Hispanics who helped Trump get elected [20:36] feel betrayed, including thousands of Cubans who've been deported to countries that they never [20:42] set foot in, to Mexico, to Africa. You don't think that is going to cost you votes? [20:48] I don't think that we're seeing that. We're seeing the people here in Florida who have come here [20:53] are aligned with the conservative philosophies that we've advocated. Immigration was the number [20:58] one issue. It was an issue in those Hispanic communities, and they voted for the president. [21:02] So the congresswoman is wrong in saying that voters in her district feel betrayed in this ad? [21:07] I think she has her opinion. What I'm seeing across the entire state is different than [21:13] necessarily what she's seeing in her congressional district or claims to see in her congressional [21:17] district. I mean, if she's saying it, isn't it because she thinks that it's going to cost her [21:22] voters and she wants to win? And so she's putting out a message that voters in that district will [21:27] resonate with. Doesn't that contradict what you're saying? Well, she can talk about the messaging in her [21:32] election, and I think she should do that. What I'm talking about is the state as a whole. We have a very large [21:37] Hispanic population. They support the president. They support the immigration policy. And that's why [21:42] we're still going to win on Tuesday. And we have this. We will have the support of our Hispanic friends [21:46] across the board. So on the claim that Angie Nixon supports the Cuban government, you're talking about [21:52] an interview in which she gave to CBS News recently. She was asked if there's a dictatorship in Cuba. [21:58] And her answer was that according to Cubans that she speaks to, there is a dictatorship. And she [22:04] was asked to clarify that later in a radio interview with Enrique Santos in South Florida. [22:09] Let's play that clip. So I have stated time and time again, on multiple occasions and interviews [22:16] that the Cuban government is a dictatorship. Well, here you're clarifying if Hidal Castro was a bad [22:21] person. Yes. Dictatorship is a bad thing. It is. Socialism is not good. It's not. And you know, [22:27] what else is not good? The way in which this country is operating. [22:32] Now, Nixon has been consistent on this. I know because I asked her in August, [22:37] soon after she won the primary, about a statement that the DSA put out extolling Fidel Castro. Let's [22:43] play that clip. Is celebrating Fidel Castro something you agree with? [22:51] That's something that I'm not supportive of. I am supportive of ensuring that housing is a right [22:57] for everyone that folks have quality health care, as well as fully funded public education. [23:03] And I would not have supported that. Are you using socialism as a boogeyman to scare people that [23:13] have endured generational trauma in South Florida against voting for a Democrat? [23:20] I don't think it's a boogeyman when you sign up for the Democrat Socialists of America. [23:24] She is a socialist. She signed the card. She is a member of the party. She is endorsed by the [23:29] Democrat Socialists. And no, it's not a boogeyman. In Florida, I've worked in the exiled community. [23:34] People who've had their freedom, their property, and sometimes lives taken away from them because [23:39] of these failed regimes that she's advocating for. So no, socialism isn't welcome in Florida. [23:44] She's not advocating for those regimes, though. [23:45] And she is a socialist. She is clearly that. [23:47] She has said that she signed up for something with the Democratic Socialists of America, [23:52] as well as other groups, because she wanted to expand the tent. Nevertheless, [23:56] I do want to ask you one more thing. A couple of weeks ago, you told WLRN that it's all about [24:01] turnout now. So if Republicans lose ground in Florida, is that on you? [24:08] I think it's on all of us, and it is on every Republican. We must turn out voters. [24:12] We built a 1.5 million voter advantage for a reason so that we could face headwinds in a [24:18] midterm election when you're the party in power and you want to defy history. So we're going to turn [24:23] out every Republican voter. I'm confident that in the next couple of days of early voting and on [24:28] election day, we're going to have a big red Florida. And on Tuesday, we're going to be talking [24:31] about how Florida continues to lead the way and we continue to be the free state of Florida. [24:37] We look forward to the next conversation after Tuesday. Evan Power, thanks for joining us. [24:41] Thank you. [24:42] The richest man in the world is now the largest political donor ever for a single election cycle. [24:47] New reporting from our colleague, Frederica Skouten. [24:50] And she dives into just how much Elon Musk is propping up the GOP and how the party is [24:56] spending his money. Musk has given nearly half a billion, half a billion dollars. There you see [25:02] exactly 445. I shouldn't say exactly because we don't know exactly how much it is, but just [25:07] in that ballpark is eye-popping. And the question is, where is that money going? Not surprisingly, [25:13] Musk's home state of Texas, followed by Ohio and Michigan. Frederica is at the table with us. [25:19] Such important reporting, Frederica, because Democrats are very worried that this could [25:25] stop their momentum in a lot of these states. And you write, if Republicans win the midterms, [25:31] Elon Musk's money may be why. And I just want to go through the top races where he is investing, [25:40] as I mentioned, starting with Texas, 45 million that we know of so far, then Ohio and Michigan, [25:45] both 10 million, Iowa and Maine. Yeah, yeah. And that is describing what his own super PAC is doing, [25:52] America PAC. It's almost he has two tracks. He's put more than $215 million into America PAC. [25:59] And America PAC is active in all those states, 17 states, a bunch of races. And they're helping to [26:06] turn out the vote in those places. But he also separately is giving big sums to other groups. [26:13] For instance, in September, he donated more than $150 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, [26:19] which we all know is the main Republican super PAC. Quickly, SLF turned around and put that money into [26:26] something called Texas PAC, which is set up to help Ken Paxton win in Texas. And so that money has been going [26:34] into advertising that it has been attacking the Democrat, James Tallarico. So that's a lot of [26:41] money in Texas that can be traced back to Elon Musk. And money that they would not have to spend likely [26:47] had the president not endorsed Ken Paxton and John Cornyn, the incumbent Republican, were on the ballot [26:52] and not him. I want to read a little bit more from your story. Republicans familiar with the strategy [26:58] described Musk's move to shoulder some of the Texas advertising costs as freeing other GOP groups [27:04] to deploy resources elsewhere to protect the Senate majority. So it's advertising. But I do want to [27:11] drill down on what you just said about door knocking, because Elon Musk is a tech guy. And he and a lot of [27:19] these groups know how to find voters. They buy GrowTarget. They know who voted when. They know how to find [27:24] them. So if you have enough money, you can spend time literally going voter to voter and making sure [27:31] to the best of your ability that they get out to the polls, which matters in a time where there's a [27:36] lack of Republican enthusiasm. Absolutely. They can target them and they're targeting them on the doors, [27:41] but they're also targeting them on digital advertising. If you go on Facebook, for instance, [27:46] you will see all of these ads directed at very specific folks saying, hey, have you checked your [27:52] registration? Are you ready to vote? Hey, remember to vote. One of the things that America PAC has done [27:57] is they they have a sort of a wallet that you can download and that helps remind you when it's time [28:05] for you to vote. And you're seeing this across the country. You're seeing it in Colorado. You're seeing [28:09] it in Ohio. And obviously, you're seeing it in Texas, where he is based and a number of his companies [28:14] are headquartered. One of the questions is, OK, so why aren't Democrats out there hitting Elon Musk [28:21] more? James Tallarico certainly is. And he did it again with with our colleague at Lavendera. But [28:27] a quote from Ben Wickler, who's a former Wisconsin party chair to Democratic Party chair to your [28:33] publication in Washington Sun maybe explains it. If voters are telling you every hour or every day that [28:38] grocery prices are their top concern, then don't stop talking about groceries prices in order to lean [28:44] into Elon Musk. Yeah, absolutely. Corruption is obviously an issue. Not that what Elon Musk is [28:51] doing is corrupt in any way. This is actually very legal what he is doing. But when it comes to [28:57] affordability and corruption, Democrats have tied those together. So distracting and talking about [29:03] what Elon Musk is doing when there are hundreds of millions of dollars going into all of these [29:08] campaigns throughout the country, it might not be the best argument. Yeah. And that quote came from [29:12] an article from my colleague Emma Ruby, which is fantastic. Everyone should go read on the Washington [29:16] Sun. But it basically juxtaposes Elon Musk's visibility this election cycle with 2024. And I want [29:23] to read one part of the article. It says that the Sun's analysis of ad impact data showed that since [29:28] September 1st, only 37 unique ads mentioning Elon Musk have hit the airwaves. Mind you, in that same [29:34] period, 351 ads have hit the airwaves talking about corruption. So it is very clear that Democrats [29:40] are choosing to focus on corruption and affordability over Elon Musk, despite the [29:44] large amount of monies he is just flushing into the electoral system. And real quick, [29:49] they are, Democrats are connecting the two. Without a doubt. But again, I mean, [29:52] it's the economy and affordability. And Democrats also are doing the canvassing and door knocking [29:57] that George Soros is funding called Texas Together, but not nearly as extensive as what Elon Musk is doing. [30:03] What we're looking at right now is breaking news, a map that just changed according to the Cook [30:10] political report. They now say that there are 222 districts in the U.S. that are leaning or likely [30:18] are solid Democratic. That is a shift toward the Democrats. Before this morning, it was 220. That [30:24] might not seem like a lot, but you will remember that it takes 218 seats to control the U.S. House of [30:31] Representatives. Democrats are at 214 right now. So that shift more toward the Democrats. And then [30:37] perhaps even more importantly, they moved several other races in the Democratic direction. What am I [30:43] talking about there? Well, in a state like Colorado, for instance, Colorado's Colorado's fifth [30:49] congressional district was leaning Republican. It's a Republican incumbent. Now they say it's a toss up [30:55] with Jessica Killen, the Democrat there with a solid chance. There are a few other districts in the [30:59] country that are worth noting. I was just talking to a candidate in Pennsylvania in Pennsylvania's [31:04] first congressional district. This race now listed as a toss up. The Republican incumbent, [31:09] Brian Fitzpatrick, has been able to hold off Democrats in a district that actually leans, [31:13] voted for Kamala Harris. You're going to hear from David Urban in just a second. Pennsylvania [31:18] guru who's going to tell you that maybe Brian Fitzpatrick will still win. But Cook Political Report now [31:23] says this race is a toss up. But you get a sense of how the map has changed just over the last few days, [31:31] drifting toward the Democrats in these very, very late moments. Let's talk about your house [31:37] rating ratings. Jessica, you are here to walk us through. We're going to start with the Senate map. [31:44] I mean, we have a lot of uncertainty in the Senate map still. I would still rather be Democrats than [31:48] Republicans right now in our seven toss ups. I actually think they're leading in at least five [31:54] to six of them, Democrats are. But it's still within the margin of error. And we've seen some [31:58] some of these states are very hard to poll. Alaska, Maine, polls have not been reliable there in the [32:03] past. We saw Michigan polling the off in the primary election. But the two races that I'm moving [32:08] just shows how the map has expanded. And those two races, forgive me, but Nebraska moved from [32:13] likely Republican to lean Republican. Okay. And then Florida was not on the map before and now it is. [32:17] I mean, this is a 13 point Trump state. I still think that Angie Nixon is going to struggle more [32:21] than a regular Democrat would in Florida, even in a wave type of year because she has aligned [32:26] herself with with the Democratic Socialists of America. But it is I have we have seen closer [32:31] polling there. I think that she's being helped by the strong campaign that David Jolly, the Democratic [32:36] nominee for governor is running as well. Okay, I just want to do this for everybody. Just a reminder [32:42] and clear this. Okay, so this is where the battleground map is right now. [32:46] Let's look at where it was in February of last year. My initial ratings, yes. [32:51] I mean, from your initial ratings, the entire Midwest to Western part of the country was not [32:58] a battleground. And remember right now what we had before, Alaska was not on, Texas was not on, [33:04] Iowa was not on, never mind Kansas and so many others here that are now in February of 2025 were [33:13] battlegrounds and now they've changed dramatically. I mean, this is a remarkable shift from last year [33:20] to now. Democrats deserve credit for recruiting candidates, convincing a candidate like Mary [33:24] Paltola to run in Alaska. I think that they took advantage of Republican divisions in Texas with [33:29] getting James Tallarico as a strong candidate there. But Kansas, I think is the big surprise of [33:34] the cycle. And I think Roger Marshall probably wins the award for running maybe the worst campaign. [33:39] And he could have put this race away earlier. Again, it's a 16 point Trump state. I know that the [33:43] NRSC told their incumbents, you need to be ready. This is a tough cycle. And he was one who did not [33:48] apparently heed that. He didn't even have campaign staff or consultants up until just a few weeks ago. [33:53] I just want to say something for the record as we talk about this remarkable shift. The yellow states [33:59] are toss ups. Toss up means it can go either way. And it is, for the most part, on Republican turf, [34:08] which means they could come home. And this is the question that I have, [34:11] and I think that a lot of people do as they're looking for the polling. We're seeing good [34:14] Democratic turnout in some of these places where we have partisan data. But if Republican voters come [34:19] home, they vote on election day, that could certainly, because the DNA of these states is [34:23] still very Republican. And I think that's why, if you see them fall short in a 16 point Trump state [34:27] and an 18 point Trump state like South Carolina, that we have rated lean Republican, I think the [34:33] answer will be it was just too Republican. We're too partisan right now. And Leigh Ann, I know you're [34:37] in touch with Republican sources all day, every day. Where are they most worried as you look at this map? [34:42] Everywhere. They are really worried everywhere. You know, just yesterday in South Carolina, [34:48] the Democratic super PAC Senate majority PAC went in with $750,000 in digital ads, which doesn't seem [34:55] like a lot, but it is the first time national Democrats have spent money in the state and, [35:00] you know, perhaps decades. And it's the first time this cycle as well. And the reason I'm told is [35:05] because Democrats got some polling back that showed, you know, Annie Andrews actually with a very slight lead [35:11] in private polling than over Darlene Graham. And so, you know, Republicans are extremely nervous. [35:23] If they were able to keep the Senate, that is going to be considered a very, very good night for them. [35:28] Okay, let's talk about and look at the House ratings that have changed. Because as we said, 12 of them [35:36] have moved in the Democrats direction in, in sort of some way, shape or form. I want to zero in on some [35:43] of the new competitive races. And I specifically want to highlight North Carolina nine. Why am I doing [35:51] this? Not just because it was a Trump almost 16 district, but because that is the district of the [35:59] Hudson, Congressman Hudson, who is in charge of getting Republicans elected to, um, to Congress and keeping [36:05] the House. And he even put some money into his own race. Look, that just goes to show that if you are [36:11] a Republican incumbent, you do not feel safe wherever you are, regardless of how much you won by last [36:16] time. Um, I have talked to Republican members of Congress who, um, have never been as worried as [36:23] this. I mean, it, it reminds me of Democrats in 2010, in 2014. There's just this sense out there that [36:30] everyone now is sort of worried. But look, I mean, the reality is, uh, the, the likely GOP and only GOP, [36:37] those are still likely to be, uh, in the Republican hands, but it makes everyone nervous. There's no [36:42] doubt about it. But just, there's one thing that is, is true as we end this, uh, campaign cycle. [36:47] The president's approval rating remains, uh, very low and the economy remains very high as the top [36:53] issue. Those are the two things that have not changed throughout this entire year. And that is driving [36:58] all of this. I want to read a little bit of your newsletter this morning. Jasmine, [37:02] the bar for a good night has been set very high. This is about Democrats, obviously too high for [37:07] some to steal some phrasing. I had heard earlier today. I think the party is nauseously optimistic. [37:14] That is, uh, Roderica Apple weight of the majority Democrats. Yeah, we were asking this question to [37:20] Democrats. Did you set the bar too high? When you go out on the trail, I was at Milwaukee with Kamala [37:25] Harris as she was campaigning for David Crawley early this week. And she said, [37:29] when Democrats take the Senate, that is a very high bar, even given the changes in the expansion [37:35] of the map. So we're asking Democrats across the board, did you guys set, uh, the bar too high so [37:40] that if you do not net the Senate, or if you don't flip some of these races that we're talking about, [37:45] let's say Texas, um, uh, Kansas, et cetera, will people feel disappointed even though the House [37:52] has a good night, which they're expected to have. And the question for people was, [37:56] why not expand what we think that we can expand? Why not give people hope and that we can do more [38:04] for what we're talking about? With us now to discuss is CNN political commentator Alyssa [38:08] Ferry Griffin, former Trump White House Director of Strategic Communications. All right, Alyssa, [38:12] we're four days out from Election Day. What is your reaction to that report that Democrats could [38:17] fare better than previously expected in these 12 House races? It tracks with what I'm hearing [38:24] from a number of operatives and just some of the early voter turnout that we're starting to see. I [38:27] mean, we have the most data that we have had to date. We've had, you know, millions of votes cast in [38:32] some of these critical battleground states. So I strongly suspect that the House is going to flip for [38:37] Democrats. But now we're starting to see that it could be a double digit win for Democrats in the House. [38:42] The Senate is just such an open game. I mean, I've talked to Republicans who think that, [38:47] yes, Democrats have more optionality to get there. The fact that Kansas is potentially in play, Iowa, [38:53] Texas. But they're really watching Michigan closely, which Mike Rogers has been neck and [38:58] neck there with El Syed. And that would be a net loss for Democrats if Mike Rogers were to win. So [39:03] the bottom line is nobody knows when it comes to the Senate. There's a lot of surprises that could [39:08] happen. But the two things I'm watching are the demographics of early voter turnout. You've seen [39:13] heavy Latino turnout, especially in Texas. And then you've seen a lot of young voters turning out. [39:18] Those are both positive signs in this moment for Democrats. But we really won't know anything till [39:24] Tuesday. What do you make of that in terms of young voters that Democrats are pulling in a lot [39:28] more young voters in these early votes compared to Republicans? As a Republican, it's frustrating [39:35] because Donald Trump made pretty incredible inroads with young voters in 2024. You know, [39:40] he reached out to some of those low propensity voters. He went on podcasts and sort of the [39:45] manosphere and got a lot of particularly young men to turn out for Republicans. But in the two years [39:50] since, I think the policies of this administration have really alienated some of those voters and [39:55] pushed them back into Democrats arms. So the cost of living is the biggest issue for young voters [40:00] and frankly, all voters. But also no new wars really resonated. If you're, you know, my generation [40:06] and you grew up in the global war on terror, a lot of voters were just motivated for no new wars in [40:11] the Middle East. And now we're in Iran, something the president ran against doing. So those issues, [40:17] and I think heavy handed tactics with immigration have really created quite a bit of a break with [40:22] younger voters and the Trump administration. Joining me now is the woman leading the charge for [40:27] Democratic efforts to get more Democrats elected to the House, the chair of the DCCC, [40:32] Democratic Congresswoman Susan DelBene of Washington. Thanks for being here. [40:35] Absolutely. Four days. [40:36] Four days and another change from Cook Political. You've got 12 race changes, [40:43] a notch towards Democrats in all 12 of these. What does that say to you? How bullish are you [40:51] this morning? [40:51] Well, actually, since Labor Day, we've seen 291 race rating changes towards Democrats all across the [40:59] country because people on the ground are tired. They're hurting. They're tired of the broken [41:04] promises, costs skyrocketing, people losing health care. Republicans promise no forever wars. We have [41:12] a forever war going on right now with no strategy, no plan. People don't want representatives who are [41:18] rubber stamps for an administration. They want folks who are going to stand up for them. And we have great [41:23] candidates running, excuse me, literally all across the country and opportunities in we're on offense 66 [41:31] districts across the country. They all keep moving our direction. And as you said, we need to net three [41:37] to win. But we will absolutely take back the majority and have a strong governing majority. [41:41] Absolutely take back the majority is how bullish is where you are this morning. [41:47] Where is the floor and how pie in the sky are you willing to go? You've got Cook says you can pick up the [41:52] range that they've got is between 12 and 25 seats. Crystal Ball, Larry Sabato's team has it between [41:59] 15 and 33 seats. Where's your what's the floor you're working with right now and in the minimum [42:05] number of seats you guys are picking up? We're going to take back the majority. I never give a number. [42:09] My job is to make sure we fight for every seat across the country that you do. You do count numbers. [42:14] I do count numbers. And yet I know that we have incredible opportunities. As I said, [42:19] we have 66 races where we're on offense across the country from Maine to Southern California, [42:25] from Alaska to Florida. And is your mind you're going to pick up double digits? [42:30] I think we have a strong opportunity to take back the majority and have a strong governing majority. [42:36] So we're going to fight for every seat. But I take nothing for granted. We're going to work hard [42:40] over these next four days to make sure we win every seat we can across the country. Of the 12 that I'm [42:44] looking at here from Cook Political that have that have shifted a notch toward Democrats now, [42:49] which one that you've been tracking from, let's say, Labor Day to now, which one is the which one [42:57] is the juiciest? Which one do you are you focused on most as the most likely pickup for you guys? [43:02] You know, I think there are opportunities across the board here. I think one of the things you kind [43:07] of pointed out was that some of these races are in districts that Republicans gerrymandered to try to [43:15] make opportunities for them improve across the country. You talked about North Carolina and Richard [43:20] Hudson Seed. They've been redoing the maps in North Carolina every cycle seems like to try to create [43:28] more and more opportunities and it's backfiring. Not only do we have opportunities in his district, [43:33] but North Carolina 11, Jamie Ager running an incredible campaign. We're going to pick up [43:39] seats in North Carolina and Florida, Texas, other places that they gerrymandered. They're backfiring [43:46] because people didn't get to have a say they want. We have incredible candidates. That's probably our [43:51] secret sauce is we have great candidates running across the country and people are tired of the broken [43:57] promises. So we have opportunities even in places that were gerrymandered. When we're talking about [44:01] control of the U.S. House of Representatives, in 2024 there were three races in the entire country [44:08] in districts where Republicans won but also were won by Kamala Harris. One of those was Pennsylvania's [44:14] first congressional district where Brian Fitzpatrick, the Republican incumbent, he won pretty easily by [44:19] almost 13 points and this was a district that Kamala Harris actually won. So Democrats have been painting [44:26] this as a target even though even though Brian Fitzpatrick did very very well there. There's been a change [44:33] just this morning in this district. Before this morning, this district Cook Political Report rated it [44:38] as lean Republican. That has changed in the last half hour literally. Now Cook says this race is a toss-up [44:45] between the incumbent Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick and the Democrat Bob Harvey. Joining us right now [44:51] is the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania's first congressional district. Bob Harvey, good to see you this [44:57] morning. One of the ways that Brian Fitzpatrick has positioned himself in this district and been able to get [45:02] re-elected in a district that leans a little bit blue is by voting against the Republican Party and the [45:10] president of the United States. The Philadelphia Inquirer said he votes more against the president and the [45:13] Republicans than any other Republican member of Congress. So why do you tell voters in the Pennsylvania first [45:20] congressional district there needs to be a change? Well, for a lot of reasons. First, it's good to [45:27] be with you, John. Thank you for having me on. You know, Brian Fitzpatrick has never voted against [45:31] the president's agenda when it actually mattered. He's done nothing to derail this agenda. In fact, [45:35] the Enquirer pointed that out in their endorsement of me. But this is a district where, [45:41] like across the country, people are hurting. People are struggling with higher bills when it comes to [45:46] groceries, heating oil, gasoline, affordability when it comes to health care. And it all goes back to [45:54] the votes that Brian Fitzpatrick has cast. I listened to some interviews that you've done [46:00] and read some exchanges you've had with Pennsylvania organizations. One of the things you said is when [46:04] you decided to get into this race, you had already determined that the Democratic Party had lost its [46:09] way. Can you give me some specific examples of where you think your party has lost its way? Well, [46:18] look, I'm the first in my family to go to college. You know, none of my grandparents graduated high [46:23] school and my two grandfathers didn't go to high school. And yet the Democratic Party is what we've [46:28] always been part of in my family because we believed it fought for working families. It fought for, [46:33] you know, making sure people could earn a wage that could help them buy those homes they wanted to buy, [46:38] cars, go on vacations when they needed to, provide for their kids. And I think over the last couple [46:43] decades, we've drifted away from fighting for those people. They just don't trust the Democratic Party to [46:47] fight for those affordability issues and economic issues anymore. So I'm proud of this campaign's [46:53] focus on those issues. And I think people are now focused and I think the party's more focused than [46:57] it has been in the past. Now, I do not know if you're an avid user of Truth Social. I expect not. [47:03] But just a few minutes ago this morning, President Trump wrote on his social media platform, he wrote, [47:08] inflation is way down under Trump, which of course is not actually true. Inflation is up since the [47:16] president took office. You can see where it was at his inauguration. You can see where it is now. [47:20] But what do you, what's your reaction to the president telling his supporters, [47:25] telling the country inflation is down? Well, the, you know, I don't have to have a reaction [47:32] any more than the people in this district across the country know the truth. You know, I'm hearing, [47:36] especially over the past couple of weeks, people have gotten that first shipment of heating oil. [47:40] There's a lot of people in this district, especially seniors and older homes, [47:44] who still use oil heat. And those bills are 70%, sometimes double what they were last year. [47:49] And this is just their first shipment of heating oil that they're going to have this winter. [47:53] So that's the pain that people are facing. So they know what the real reality is when it comes to [47:58] inflation. So you are a teacher, a former teacher. How many years did you cheat civics and social studies? [48:06] For 26 years in public schools. God bless you. That's a long time. So you no doubt [48:11] talk to students about Congress and what it was like to run for Congress. How is actually running [48:17] for Congress different than you might have talked about it with your students over the last 26 years? [48:26] Well, you know, it's funny. I, this was not something that was on my agenda. Things to do [48:30] was to run for Congress. And so I never really talked a whole lot about it. Although I was just [48:33] in a school the other day talking to a young group of Democratic high school students and their club. [48:38] You know, certainly that the attention that this race has gotten, as you just mentioned, [48:43] the political report changing the rating to Tulsa. This is getting national attention in this race [48:50] because it is such a swing county and swing district. And so that attention really is [48:55] something that is taking a look at used to. Bob Harvey, we appreciate you being with us. I know [49:00] you've got a busy few days ahead. A lot of people watching your district for signs which way the entire [49:06] Congress will go on Tuesday night. Thank you. All right, folks, the moment of truth is here. [49:11] It's time for my final midterm forecast. We're talking the United States House. We're talking the [49:15] United States Senate. And I've looked at thousands, no, hundreds of thousands of data points, [49:19] thousands of polls to understand which way the tides are shaking. And we're going to start off [49:25] with the U.S. House of Representatives. We're going to be talking about all 435 seats. We're going to be [49:31] projecting all of them. But before we do so, we have to understand how we get to that forecast. [49:36] And it all starts off, well, with the man at the top, President Trump. And look at this. Look at his [49:43] approval rating, his net approval rating. He's down there swimming with the Little Mermaid. He's 24 [49:48] points underwater. That is the worst. That is the worst for any president ever, dating back to at least [49:55] Harry S. Truman in 1946, the worst for any president before a midterm election. Now, of course, Trump [50:02] being unpopular is only part of the Republicans' issues. Take a look at this. Approve of Congress, [50:08] just 14 percent. Look, Congress always has a low approval rating, but never this low. Never this low [50:12] going into an election. 14 percent, the lowest ever going into an election on record. 81 percent disapprove. [50:19] Now, look, folks, I know what you're saying. Harry, Harry, you know, folks always disapprove of Congress, [50:24] but they like their own Congress. And not anymore. Not anymore. This is even more troubling. Look at [50:30] this. Say their own Congress member deserves re-election or does not deserve. For the first [50:34] time ever going into an election. Look at this. The plurality. The plurality. 45 percent say that [50:40] their own member of Congress does not deserve re-election. Woof. Now, what does this all relate [50:46] back to, right? What does this all relate back to? Well, inflation is the name of the game. And Americans, [50:52] simply put, do not believe that the president of the United States is measuring up because it was [50:58] the reason that Trump got elected back in 2024, re-elected. Look at this. Trusted more on the [51:03] issue of inflation by nine points over Kamala Harris. But look at this. His net approval rating now, [51:08] 52 points underwater. That is more unpopular than any other president ever. Yes, it's even more [51:16] unpopular than Jimmy Carter was on inflation. He is down there swimming in Lake Erie. My God, [51:23] it's terrible. Now, this all, of course, hurts Republicans when they are running for re-election [51:29] and those who want to join Congress. I don't want to join Congress. But for some reason, Democrats, [51:34] Republicans on both sides apparently do want to join Congress. And look at this. This is a national [51:38] congressional ballot Democratic lead. And it has been, it has been widening. It has been widening. Look at [51:43] this. A year ago, Democrats were up by five. Now, in the summer, this past summer, it was plus six. [51:51] And today, look at this. Plus nine. And that plus nine is important because it easily overcomes the [51:58] GOP redistricting. Remember those redistricting wars? Democrats, Republicans, re-drawing the lines. [52:04] Republicans ended up winning that battle. But in reality, all Democrats probably need is to win the [52:10] popular House vote by plus four. You don't have to be a mathematical genius to know that plus nine [52:15] is significantly greater than plus four. Now, when we're talking about the national generic [52:19] congressional ballot, right, or the national House ballot, that's one way to measure potential success [52:24] in the House. The other way or another way is to look at race voters. I'm talking about your Cooks, [52:29] your Sabatos, who are rating each individual race right down to the T. Now, this, what we're seeing, [52:35] is something truly historic going on here. House seats at least leaning Democratic. Well, [52:41] right now in 2026, we're talking about 224. Look back past. Jump into the DeLorean. Go to the past [52:48] cycles. In 2022, it was 193 at this point in the cycle. 193 leaning Democratic. Democrats ended up [52:55] north of 210 seats. How about in 2018 when Democrats easily won back a House majority net gain of 40 seats [53:03] in the House? Even then, they were well south of 218 seats. 218, of course, being the magic number, [53:10] needed for a majority. So Democrats are already running well ahead of their pace in prior election [53:16] cycles, according to the race raters. So you put together that national generic ballot. You put [53:20] together that with the race raters, say, hey, Democrats are in pretty good shape. Here is one word of [53:26] warning. One word of warning is that if we look back at these race ratings, right, historically speaking, [53:32] we can see, or at least those forecasts, we can see that the forecasts sometimes actually overshoot [53:38] Democrats. They overshoot Democrats. So this is 2020 U.S. House races. The House seat forecast, [53:43] 242 for the Democrats back in 2020. And look at what ended up happening. Democrats won only 222. So [53:50] there was an undershoot. The Democrats actually fell about 20 seats short. They fell about 20 seats [53:56] shorts of what the forecasts were projecting. And you need to keep that in mind. That's why I'm also looking [54:00] at other data that has nothing to do with polling, nothing to do with race raters who are looking [54:05] at the polling. I'm talking about primary turnout. And you can see this here, national primary turnout [54:10] edge by party. And what's so important is in each of the past few cycles, the midterms, the party that [54:14] had the larger primary turnout ended up winning the House. 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022. In all the cases, [54:23] the same party that had the national primary turnout edge went on to win the U.S. House. And you know what, [54:27] this year? You know who has the primary edge? Well, it is Team B-L-U-E. So here it is. It's actually a [54:38] moment of truth. It is a moment of truth that we're coming up on. That is, what is actually the [54:43] most likely scenario for the U.S. House of Representatives? And I will note that it's [54:47] chances in climbing ever higher. Higher and higher, as Jackie Wilson once said. It's up eight points [54:53] from where we were back on August 13th. Back on August 14th. And what is that? What is the chance? [54:59] Well, our most likely scenario is, but da-da-da-da-da, Democrats. Chance to win the U.S. House of [55:06] Representatives up to 92 percent. Up to 92 percent that Democrats win back the U.S. House of Representatives [55:13] according to an aggregate of models, my aggregate of models. Now look, 92 percent is not 100 percent. [55:19] That still leaves Republicans with an 8 percent chance. But chances are Democrats are going to [55:25] take back the House. And more than that, they're going to take back the House with ease. Because [55:31] I promised you a specific seat forecast. And here it is. In the horseshoe, you can see it. There's [55:36] more blue than red. And so our final projection, our final House forecast is 237 seats for the Dems, [55:43] 198 seats for the Republicans. Look, this is the most likely forecast. I'm not saying I'm going to be [55:47] right on. It's going to be very interesting to see after the elections. We're going to go back. [55:52] We're going to see how close that this actually got. But at this point, Democrats look like they're [55:56] not just going to reach 218 seats. They're going to exceed it with ease. Of course, I know the real [56:01] reason, or at least I think I know the real reason that a lot of you have tuned into this. And that is [56:06] you want a Senate forecast. And we do have a final Senate forecast. But this is obviously exhausting [56:12] me. I've had a very long week. So a little mid forecast drink for me. I do enjoy a good cream [56:22] soda. And there we go. Okay. So we're going to be projecting out all of the Senate seats, [56:26] all 35 Senate seats, all the states in yellow. We're going to fill them on in. We're going to [56:33] fill them on in. But before we do so, we have to understand just how hard it is for Democrats, [56:38] historically speaking, how hard it is for Democrats and why Republicans at the beginning of this cycle, [56:43] we thought were in the catbird seat. And this is why. Take a look here. Senate flips in states that the [56:47] party lost by at least 10 points in the prior presidential election. How many seats did they [56:52] flip in non-special elections since 2011? That is over the last 15 years. They flipped zero, zero, [56:59] zero. They flipped zero seats. And why is that so important? Because Democrats need at least two, [57:06] at least they need to flip at least two plus 10 Trump states in order to win back the United [57:10] States Senate. But here's where it gets really interesting. Here's where it gets really interesting. [57:15] Look at this. Okay. Take a look at these key Senate race Dem poll margins at this point, [57:20] where Trump won by at least 10 points. You actually see a lot of blue on your screen. [57:25] Alaska, plus three. It would be interesting to see if the final polls actually end up matching the [57:29] results given all the controversies there with the two Dan Sullivans. Ohio, Sherrod Brown seeming to do [57:35] pretty gosh darn well at this point, leading by three points. The Democrat there trying to win back [57:39] a seat in the Senate. Of course, he is a former longtime incumbent. Texas, James Tallarico hoping to [57:44] become the first United States senator from Texas since 1988. He's up by three. Kansas, [57:50] which hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932 when Babe Ruth looked to the bleachers and [57:56] called his shot in the 32 World Series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. And Iowa, [58:01] you can't get any closer than that. The Democrat Josh Turek in the polling up by the smallest, [58:05] smallest of margins a point. Should be noted, all these races are really tight right now, [58:10] but they do seem to be leaning slightly Democratic, slightly Democratic. Now, [58:14] what could possibly cause this? Because Trump won in these states by at least 10 points just two years [58:20] ago. Well, my dear friends, it's something that should have Republicans nationwide picking up the [58:25] phone, picking up the phone. Hello? Hello? What is going on, White House? What is going on? [58:31] And here's the deal. Trump, despite winning all those states by at least 10 points, [58:35] is now underwater by double digits in all of them. In Texas, he's 13 points underwater. Alaska, [58:40] 15 points underwater. Deep down there, I mean, my goodness gracious, you can get in the Pacific Ocean, [58:46] you can't get as far south as Donald Trump is right now. How about in Iowa, the cornfields of Iowa? [58:50] He's way underneath those cornfields. Look at that, 16 points underwater. Hanses, 16 points underwater. [58:57] And Ohio, he's down there in the Ohio River, my dear friends. He's 16 points underwater. Woof! [59:05] It's no bueno, not good news. Now, here's the thing to keep in mind, though. I know a lot of [59:10] you are wondering about this, and it is really worth this asterisk. And this gives hope. This gives [59:15] hopes to Republicans. Look at this. Okay. You all know, if you're watching this video, that polling [59:22] has tended to underestimate Republicans. And that is true, especially in Trump-1 states. Look at this. [59:29] The GOP has beat their final Senate poll average from 2018 to 2024 by 4.1 points in the states Trump-1 [59:36] in the prior election. We're looking at the closed states, the states that in the final Senate polling [59:40] average were all within five. And that is the case with all, with all of these states. I mean, [59:45] look at this. 3-3-3-3, less than one. So when we see that and we see, oh, wow, that 4.1, all of that [59:52] is within the historic range in which Republicans could potentially win. And that's why this map really, [59:58] to me, tells an important story. This is very possible. This is possible. Your 2026 Senate, [1:00:04] if polls underestimate the GOP by force points, right? Across the board. Look at that. You get [1:00:10] Michigan. Michigan goes red. Iowa stays red. Texas is red. Alaska is red. Kansas stays red. [1:00:20] And you just see that it is quite possible that Republicans do, in fact, hold on to the United [1:00:25] States Senate. But that's not the full story. Because it's not just about Trump and his unpopularity. [1:00:30] It is also about how unpopular these different Senate candidates are, the Republicans in these [1:00:36] deeply red states. Look at this. They're all double digits underwater. Dan Sullivan, Ashley Hinson in [1:00:42] Iowa, Roger Marshall in Kansas, John Husted in Ohio, Kem Paxton. Kem Paxton, 29 points underwater. What [1:00:50] the heck is that? That makes him by far the most unpopular GOP Senate nominee in Texas this century. I will [1:00:57] also note that this Roger Marshall number, minus 17. I did the math. That also makes Roger Marshall, [1:01:02] at this late point in the campaign, the most unpopular GOP nominee for Senate in Kansas. [1:01:08] Now, it goes beyond that, though, right? Because we're talking about history potentially being made. [1:01:13] And I know a lot of folks have had a lot of interest in the Texas Senate race. And they'll say, [1:01:17] oh, yes, the polls have, you know, underestimated Republicans. Here's the deal, though. James Tallarico's [1:01:22] six-point lead is the best that any Democratic Senate nominee since 1988, when Lloyd Benson was the [1:01:29] last Democrat to win a Senate seat, was polling at this late point in the campaign. So this is truly [1:01:33] historic. Beto O'Rourke was behind at this point back in the 2018 cycle. Now, I've been talking about [1:01:38] the plus 10 Trump states, right? I've been talking about them. But there's also another Republican-held [1:01:44] Senate seat where we've had an incumbent who has outperformed their polling in the past. And I'm, [1:01:48] of course, talking about Susan Collins in Maine. Susan Collins in Maine. Her net popularity, [1:01:53] though, in Maine right now is the worst it has been heading into an election this entire century, [1:02:00] in the 2000s. Look at this. 12 points underwater. So, yes, Susan Collins has outperformed her polling [1:02:05] in the past, but she has never been as unpopular as she is right now. And this is what we're seeing [1:02:12] across the map. We're seeing historic anomalies, not just that Trump is unpopular, but these GOP [1:02:17] nominees are historically unpopular. So what is, in fact, the most likely Senate scenario? Well, [1:02:25] I can tell you that the chance of it has gone way up. It has gone way up from where we were [1:02:31] when we made our first forecast back on August the 13th. Look at this. Up 19 points, nearly up 20 points. [1:02:37] I guess 19 would be one, a four, and a five. Up 19 points according to my aggregation of models. [1:02:44] And where does that leave us? Where does that leave us in terms of the most likely Senate outcome? [1:02:48] Well, drum roll, if you please. Here it is. Chance that the Democrats win the Senate, [1:02:54] this is the most likely outcome, is now up to 71 percent. 71 percent. I never thought I'd see the day [1:03:02] early on in this campaign where Democrats would have a 71 percent chance of winning back the United [1:03:07] States Senate. I mean, that is a huge chance, but it's still not a hundred percent. Republicans still [1:03:12] have a 29 percent chance of holding on to the United States Senate, and that ain't nothing. [1:03:19] That ain't nothing, because a good baseball hitter, right, gets on what? 30 percent, bats 300, [1:03:24] although baseball players have been getting hits less and less. But that's right near that. That's [1:03:29] right near that. And of course, we can remember the Wade Boggs of the world, the George Bretts of the [1:03:33] world. They were easily breaking 300 batting averages, getting on at least 30 percent of the [1:03:37] time all of the time. So look, this is still this is still a quite a high possibility, right? You see [1:03:43] players who have 290 batting averages getting on a whole heck of a lot. Now, this is 71 percent, [1:03:49] right? But I promised you specific seat forecast, specific seat forecast. So here we go. This is it. [1:03:55] This is the specific seat forecast. And I'm going to get nerdy for a second here. But first, [1:04:00] what are we talking about? We are talking about 52 Democrats, 52 Democrats compared to 48 Republicans, [1:04:07] compared to 48 Republicans. So Democrats, not just getting the 51 seats necessary, but getting [1:04:12] the 52, a clear majority of United States Senate seats. Now, if you're looking at your map here, [1:04:18] you'll see, look, Texas goes blue. Kansas goes blue. Alaska, yes, Alaska at this point goes blue. We'll [1:04:26] have to wait and see. Ohio goes blue to get the flip in North Carolina. Michigan stays blue. And Maine, [1:04:33] yes, even in Maine, you get a flip. But here's the thing I want you to keep in mind as we look at this. [1:04:38] The race in these states, Maine, Kansas, Iowa stays red, and Alaska are all very, very, very close. It [1:04:51] wouldn't surprise me if any of these seats went the other way. Now, if you're truly a nerd at home, [1:04:56] you might be tallying up and you go, Harry, wait a minute. It's actually 53 seats that you're showing [1:05:02] in that Democrats will win in terms of the seats they currently have and then the seats that they [1:05:07] would gain in this election. Here's the thing. We're talking probabilistically so that one of [1:05:12] these states, one of these states that currently that I am saying are going to go blue may not go [1:05:17] blue. I mean, the race in Kansas right now in the polling, in the projections, it seems to be very, [1:05:22] very tight. Maybe that seat actually goes red. We don't know. We're talking probabilistically. [1:05:26] And when we add it up, it's 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans. So that is right now the final seat [1:05:33] forecast. We'll go back after the election, see how it works out individually. But I'm putting it [1:05:37] on the line right here. And with that, we head to my favorite section. Yes. Yes. It's the bonus [1:05:46] section. Do, do, do. I do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do. Boo, boo. Look, I know some of you saying, [1:05:53] House, Senate, but what about the govs? You're truly a nerd. You're saying you're interested in [1:05:57] governors outside of your state, but don't worry. I got you covered. I got you covered. [1:06:03] Chance that a majority of govs are Democrats. And this comes from Cal, she's CNN's prediction, [1:06:08] prediction market partner. And look at this, the chance up like a rocket, up like a rocket after [1:06:13] the midterms, you know, back on March 30th, it was just a 27% chance, just a 27% chance. Now, [1:06:19] what are we talking about? We're talking about an 83% chance, an 83% chance. So at this point, [1:06:25] it looks more likely than not, whether you look at the prediction markets like this, [1:06:29] whether you look at the polling data, whether you look at the race raters, [1:06:32] that most governors, the majority of governors after this election will in fact be Democrats. [1:06:37] And that is really rare. That is really rare in modern history, because look at this, [1:06:42] look at this. How about the times that Dems held a majority of gov seats in the past 32 years? [1:06:47] It's just 12, just 12% of the time. It is truly rare. So if in fact the projections do come true, [1:06:55] we're looking at something that some of you have maybe only seen very little in your lifetime. I [1:07:01] bet a lot of our audience has only seen it for four years in their lifetime. I mean, we're talking 2007, [1:07:06] 2008, 2009, 2010, when Democrats lost that governor's majority, those governor's mansions majority. [1:07:13] Now, look, as we look forward, I want to push the ball forward a little bit, [1:07:17] right in our bonus slide section. Look ahead after the midterms. If the projections are right, [1:07:22] I do wonder how the Democratic majorities are going to like their voters back at home and put [1:07:26] them into office, because you know what? There's been a lot of Dem on Dem crime. Democrats are [1:07:30] expecting a lot, a lot from their leaders if in fact they do win the majorities. Because look at this, [1:07:36] net approval of congressional Dem leaders. You know, the last time you had a Trump midterm, [1:07:39] it was plus 19 points. Look where it is now, way down there. It's minus 12 points. This is Democrats [1:07:45] on Democrats for goodness sake. Democrats don't even like their own leaders. They're sick of their [1:07:50] own leaders. And that puts a lot of pressure on Democrats if in fact they do get into power. And [1:07:54] there's a one leader they're specifically don't like. And that is this gentleman. And that is the [1:08:00] senior senator from the great state of New York, my home state, Chuck Schumer. His net popularity [1:08:06] rating among Democrats is minus five points. I went back and looked at all the polling that I could [1:08:11] since 1985. That's over 40 years of polling. And you know what that is? He's the least popular [1:08:18] Democratic leader in the United States Senate since at least 1985. Well, folks, that's it. I'm done. [1:08:27] This has been a lot. My voice is running a little low. Oh, no, wait a minute. I got it back. The mic [1:08:31] helped me a lot. And with that, folks, you know what I say? Peace out. [1:08:37] New this morning, the Cook Political Report shifted 12 House races in the Democrats' direction. [1:08:44] The Senate Democrats are feeling, we think, better than they have before. But on this Halloween Eve, [1:08:53] why perhaps should Democrats be scared? With us now, CNN chief data analyst, [1:08:59] Harry, and with some spooky data, spooky data for Democrats with just days to go. [1:09:05] Yeah. Okay. So if we're talking about what Democrats need in order to win back the United [1:09:10] States Senate, right, let's just start with the baseline. They need to win in states that Donald [1:09:15] John Trump didn't just win two years ago, but won by double digits. And why would that potentially be [1:09:22] difficult? Because I want you to take a look at here. We're going to look at all the non-special [1:09:25] elections and take a look at Senate flips in states that the party lost by 10 or more points in the last [1:09:31] presidential election. The number is zero, zero, zero, since 2011. And Republican and Democrats need [1:09:39] to flip at least two, two states in which Donald Trump won by double digits just two years ago. [1:09:46] It simply put has not happened in 15 years. It hasn't happened and they need it to happen. [1:09:51] Exactly right. Which is why it should scare Democrats. And how has the polling been [1:09:56] in these Trump states? Yeah. Okay. So it simply put hasn't happened. And there have been times in [1:10:02] which the polls actually suggested, hey, Republicans might actually lose in some of these Trump won [1:10:08] states. And then it didn't happen. And we've seen it happen time in and time out. Okay. GOP has beat [1:10:14] the final Senate poll average by 4.1 points in states Trump won in the prior presidential election. [1:10:22] And we're looking at the close states. We're looking at the close states. And this is one thing to keep [1:10:26] in mind, which is we look at states like Ohio. We look at states like Texas. We look at states like [1:10:31] Alaska. We look at states like Kansas. And if you took a polling average in all of them, well, they're [1:10:36] all within this range. They're all within this range. So you look at this and you look at this and you [1:10:41] say there have been zero of these flips and you go, Ooh, are the polls potentially wrong again? And that's the [1:10:48] type of thing that gives a little silence to Republicans. And it's, I think a spooky, spooky, [1:10:53] spooky for Democrats. Okay. So just as an academic exercise, put this number over the polling averages [1:10:59] we've seen in these key states. Yeah. And this is exactly it. So, okay. 2026 Senate, if the polls [1:11:05] underestimate the GOP by four plus points in these Trump won states, look at this. Michigan is red. [1:11:12] We got Ohio being red. We have Iowa being red. We have Kansas being red. We have Texas being red. [1:11:20] We have Alaska being red. And that math is Republicans hold on to the United States Senate 52 to 48. And [1:11:26] that even keeps Maine blue where Susan Collins has had her own ability to outperform the polling data [1:11:32] as it comes in at the end, as we saw back in 2020. So if the past polling errors hold in these Trump won [1:11:38] states, then all of a sudden Republicans are able to hold on the United States Senate and with ease. [1:11:42] So temper expectations, maybe for Democrats there. What are the prediction markets saying about all [1:11:47] this? Yeah. And this is the thing. Look, the prediction markets, take a look at the cash prediction [1:11:50] market. Yes. The Democrats are favored 69% Republicans with the 31% chance to win the United [1:11:56] States Senate. But look, 31% things happen all of the time. You know, Johnny Bay and I were talking [1:12:01] about this before we came on. You think about the NBA finals last year, the Knicks came back against the [1:12:06] Spurs. And let me tell you, in a lot of those games, their chance of winning those games was [1:12:10] significantly less than 31%. Harry and again, food for thought with just days to go before the [1:12:15] election. A lot of news this morning. Happy Halloween. Happy Halloween. What are you going [1:12:19] as? I'm going as a professional television personality, which is very different from what [1:12:24] I normally am. Yeah, you're gonna have to change quite a bit for that. Harry and thank you very much. [1:12:28] Thank you. President Trump is taking his campaign tour back to Florida shortly as new [1:12:32] polling finds the fight to be that state's next governor is nearly tied. New York Times [1:12:36] Siena poll shows Democrat David Jolly trailing Trump ally Byron Donalds by four points, [1:12:42] barely missing the polls 3.9% margin of error. Meantime, the same poll in the Senate race [1:12:48] finds Republican incumbent Ashley Moody holding a modest six point lead over Democrat Angie Nixon. [1:12:53] The president rallying with Moody and Donalds tonight. Let's discuss with Evan Power, the chairman [1:12:58] of the Florida Republican Party. Evan, thank you so much for sharing part of your afternoon with us. [1:13:03] I want to start by asking you about a post from Governor Ron DeSantis this morning, [1:13:07] posting that Republicans are underperforming in Polk County in the key I-4 corridor. He recently [1:13:14] also said that turnout is not as strong as Republicans would like at this point, [1:13:18] that the party has work to do. What is your response? [1:13:21] Well, I think we do have work to do. If the vote was held today, we would not be where we want to be. [1:13:27] But the fact is our voters choose to vote on Election Day. You're also seeing people go to [1:13:32] early voting today at a very high number. At the end of the day, we have a 1.5 million [1:13:37] voter advantage here in Florida. And when our voters vote on Election Day, it will tell the [1:13:41] tale that we will have those wins. And the fact that people think four and six point wins in Florida [1:13:46] are now narrow shows how far the state has really come because they used to be closer than that on the [1:13:51] regular election schedule. But now we're going to win big and our voters are going to turn out on Election [1:13:55] Day. So to your point about 1.5 million registered voters, you were further along four years ago [1:14:02] than at this point when it came to early voting. About 300,000 more registered Republicans than [1:14:08] Democrats had voted at this point. Today, only 76,000 more registered Republicans have voted. [1:14:15] Why do you think the numbers are lagging? Where are those voters now? [1:14:20] Well, if you look at that same New York Times poll that you cited on the on the state of the race, [1:14:24] it said 25 percent of our voters who voted early or by mail in the 2024 election were more likely to [1:14:32] vote on Election Day this time. I think our voters are are fired up and ready to vote on Election Day, [1:14:37] which is what the president's been asking them to do. So I think we're starting to see those turn [1:14:41] up numbers kick in and early voting. But Tuesday, we're going to have a big red day here in Florida. [1:14:45] I want to ask you about one particular issue in the Senate race in a statement following the passage of [1:14:51] the Big Beautiful Bill. You thank Senator Ashley Moody for championing the bill because it, quote, [1:14:57] gives ICE the resources it needs to deport violent criminal illegal aliens. Now, according to TRAC, [1:15:04] about 70 percent of those in ICE detention have no criminal conviction. That includes about 40,000 [1:15:10] people without a conviction detained before the bill passed. Are you concerned that Trump's immigration [1:15:15] policies are going to hurt turnout among Latino voters, which are crucial in Florida? [1:15:22] No, that's not what we're seeing in the polling here. If you look here in Florida, immigration was [1:15:26] the number one issue of the last election, and they wanted to get people out of this country that were [1:15:31] here illegally, especially those that are violent criminal criminals, but people who are here illegally [1:15:36] by and large. So that is what the president of this administration has done. And I think if you look at [1:15:41] Miami, they are more concerned about Angie Nixon, who sided with the Cuban regime, would not call them [1:15:47] a dictatorship. And I think Angie Nixon, who's a member of the DSA, should go to Cuba and live under [1:15:53] the failed policies that she's advocating here in Florida. I want to get to Angie Nixon in a moment, [1:15:58] the Democratic senatorial candidate. She's denied what you're accusing her of. But I want to go back for [1:16:05] a moment because Republican Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar of the 27th district has said that [1:16:10] the Hispanics who helped Trump get elected feel betrayed, including thousands of Cubans who've [1:16:15] been deported to countries that they never set foot in, to Mexico, to Africa. You don't think that is [1:16:21] going to cost you votes? I don't think that we're seeing that. We're seeing the people here in [1:16:27] Florida who have come here are aligned with the conservative philosophies that we've advocated. [1:16:33] Immigration was a number one issue. It was an issue in those Hispanic communities and they voted for [1:16:37] the president. So the congresswoman is wrong in saying that voters in her district feel betrayed in [1:16:42] this ad? I think she has her opinion. What I'm seeing across the entire state is different than [1:16:49] necessarily what she's seeing in her congressional district or claims to see in her congressional [1:16:53] district. I mean, if she's saying it, isn't it because she thinks that it's going to cost her [1:16:58] voters and she wants to win? And so she's putting out a message that [1:17:01] voters in that district will resonate with. Doesn't that contradict what you're saying? [1:17:07] She can talk about the messaging in her election and I think she should do that. What I'm talking [1:17:11] about is the state as a whole, we have a very large Hispanic population. They support the [1:17:15] president. They support the immigration policy. And that's why we're still going to win on Tuesday. [1:17:19] And we will have the support of our Hispanic friends across the board. [1:17:24] So on the claim that Angie Nixon supports the Cuban government, you're talking about an interview [1:17:29] in which she gave to CBS News recently. She was asked if there's a dictatorship in Cuba and her [1:17:34] answer was that according to Cubans that she speaks to, there is a dictatorship. [1:17:39] And she was asked to clarify that later in a radio interview with Enrique Santos in South Florida. [1:17:44] Let's play that clip. [1:17:45] So I have stated time and time again on multiple occasions and interviews that the Cuban government [1:17:54] is a dictatorship. Well, here you're clarifying. Fidel Castro was a bad person. Yes. [1:17:58] Dictatorship is a bad thing. It is. [1:18:00] It definitely is. Socialism is not good. It's not. And you know what else is not good? [1:18:05] The way in which this country is operating. Now, Nixon has been consistent on this. I know because [1:18:11] I asked her in August soon after she won the primary about a statement that the DSA put out [1:18:17] extolling Fidel Castro. Let's play that clip. Is celebrating Fidel Castro something you agree with? [1:18:27] That's something that I'm not supportive of. I am supportive of ensuring that housing is a right [1:18:33] for everyone, that folks have quality health care as well as fully funded public education. [1:18:39] And I would not have supported that. Are you using socialism as a boogeyman [1:18:48] to scare people that have endured generational trauma in South Florida against voting for a [1:18:53] Democrat? I don't think it's a boogeyman when you sign up for the Democrat Socialists of America. [1:19:00] She is a socialist. She signed the card. She is a member of the party. She is endorsed by the [1:19:05] Democrat Socialists. And no, it's not a boogeyman. In Florida, I've worked in the exile community. [1:19:10] People who've had their freedom, their property, and sometimes lives taken away from them because [1:19:15] of these failed regimes that she's advocating for. So no, socialism is not advocating for those [1:19:20] regimes. She is a socialist. She is clearly that. She has said that she signed up for something with [1:19:26] the Democratic Socialists of America as well as other groups because she wanted to expand the tent. [1:19:31] Nevertheless, I do want to ask you one more thing. A couple of weeks ago, you told WLRN [1:19:36] that it's all about turnout now. So if Republicans lose ground in Florida, is that on you? [1:19:43] I think it's on all of us and it is on every Republican. We must turn out voters. We built [1:19:49] a 1.5 million voter advantage for a reason so that we could face headwinds in a midterm election when [1:19:54] you're the power and party in power and you want to defy history. So we're going to turn out every [1:19:59] Republican voter. I'm confident that the next couple of days of early voting and on election day, [1:20:04] we're going to have a big red Florida. And on Tuesday, we're going to be talking about how [1:20:07] Florida continues to lead the way and we continue to be the free state of Florida. [1:20:12] We look forward to the next conversation after Tuesday. Evan Power, thanks for joining us. [1:20:15] Thank you. [1:20:18] The richest man in the world is now the largest political donor ever for a single election cycle. [1:20:23] New reporting from our colleague, Frederica Skouten. She dives into just how much Elon Musk is propping [1:20:30] up the GOP and how the party is spending his money. Musk has given nearly half a billion, [1:20:36] half a billion dollars. There you see exactly 445. I shouldn't say exactly because we don't know [1:20:41] exactly how much it is, but just in that ballpark is eye popping. And the question is, where is that [1:20:47] money going? Not surprisingly, Musk's home state of Texas, followed by Ohio and Michigan. Frederica is at [1:20:54] the table with us. Such important reporting, Frederica, because Democrats are very worried that [1:21:00] this could stop their momentum in a lot of these states. And you write, if Republicans win the midterms, [1:21:07] Elon Musk's money may be why. And I just want to go through the top races where he is investing, [1:21:15] as I mentioned, starting with Texas, 45 million that we know of so far, then Ohio and Michigan, [1:21:21] both 10 million, Iowa and Maine. Yeah, yeah. And that is describing what his own Super PAC is doing, [1:21:28] America PAC. It's almost he has two tracks. He's put more than $215 million into America PAC. And [1:21:35] America PAC is active in all those states, 17 states, a bunch of races. And they're helping to turn out [1:21:43] the vote in those places. But he also separately is giving big sums to other groups. For instance, [1:21:50] in September, he donated more than $150 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which we all know [1:21:56] is the main Republican Super PAC. Quickly, SLF turned around and put that money into something called [1:22:03] Texas PAC, which is set up to help Ken Paxton win in Texas. And so that money has been going into [1:22:10] advertising that has been attacking the Democrat, James Tallarico. So that's a lot of money in Texas [1:22:18] that can be traced back to Elon Musk. And money that they would not have to spend, [1:22:22] likely, had the president not endorsed Ken Paxton and John Cornyn, the incumbent Republican, [1:22:27] were on the ballot and not him. I want to read a little bit more from your story. Republicans [1:22:32] familiar with the strategy describe Musk's move to shoulder some of the Texas advertising costs as [1:22:38] freeing other GOP groups to deploy resources elsewhere to protect the Senate majority. So it's [1:22:45] advertising. But I do want to drill down on what you just said about about door knocking because [1:22:50] Elon Musk is is a tech guy. And he and a lot of these groups know how to find voters. They [1:22:57] they buy GrowTarget. They know who voted when they know how to find them. So if you have enough money, [1:23:02] you can spend time literally going voter to voter and making sure to the best of your ability that [1:23:08] they get out to the polls, which matters in a time where there's a lack of Republican enthusiasm. [1:23:14] Absolutely. They can target them and they're targeting them on the doors, [1:23:17] but they're also targeting them on digital advertising. If you go on Facebook, for instance, [1:23:22] you will see all of these ads directed at very specific folks saying, hey, have you checked your [1:23:27] registration? Are you ready to vote? Hey, remember to vote. One of the things that America PAC has done [1:23:33] is they they have a sort of a wallet that you can download and that helps remind you when it's time [1:23:40] for you to vote. And you're seeing this across the country. You're seeing it in Colorado. You're [1:23:44] seeing it in Ohio. And obviously you're seeing it in Texas, where he is based and a number of his [1:23:50] companies are headquartered. One of the questions is, OK, so why aren't Democrats out there hitting [1:23:56] Elon Musk more? James Tallarico certainly is. And he did it again with with our colleague [1:24:01] Ed Levandera. But a quote from Ben Wickler, who's a former Wisconsin party chair to Democratic Party chair, [1:24:08] to your publication in Washington Sun, maybe explains it. If voters are telling you every [1:24:13] hour or every day that grocery prices are their top concern, then don't stop talking about grocery [1:24:18] prices in order to lean into Elon Musk. Yeah, absolutely. Corruption is obviously an [1:24:25] issue. Not that what Elon Musk is doing is corrupt in any way. This is actually very legal what he is [1:24:30] doing. But when it comes to affordability and corruption, Democrats have tied those together. [1:24:38] So distracting and talking about what Elon Musk is doing when there are hundreds of millions of [1:24:42] dollars going into all of these campaigns throughout the country, it might not be the [1:24:46] best argument. Yeah. And that quote came from an article from my colleague Emma Ruby, which is [1:24:50] fantastic. Everyone should go read on The Washington Sun. But it basically juxtaposes Elon Musk's [1:24:55] bill of visibility this election cycle with 2024. And I want to read one part of the article. [1:25:00] It says that the Sun's analysis of ad impact data showed that since September 1st, only 37 unique [1:25:06] ads mentioning Elon Musk have hit the airwaves. Mind you, in that same period, 351 ads have hit the [1:25:13] airwaves talking about corruption. So it is very clear that Democrats are choosing to focus on corruption [1:25:17] and affordability over Elon Musk, despite the large amount of monies he is just flushing [1:25:22] into the electoral system. And real quick, they are Democrats are connecting the two. [1:25:27] Without a doubt. But again, I mean, it's the economy and affordability. And Democrats also [1:25:31] are doing the canvassing and door knocking that George Soros is funding called Texas together, [1:25:36] but not nearly as extensive as what Elon Musk is doing. Yeah, for sure. [1:25:39] For sure. What we're looking at right now is breaking news, a map that just changed. According [1:25:45] to the Cook Political Report, they now say that there are 222 districts in the U.S. that are leaning [1:25:53] or likely are solid Democratic. That is a shift toward the Democrats. Before this morning, it was 220. [1:26:00] That might not seem like a lot, but you will remember that it takes 218 seats to control the [1:26:06] U.S. House of Representatives. Democrats are at 214 right now. So that shift more toward the [1:26:12] Democrats. And then perhaps even more importantly, they moved several other races in the Democratic [1:26:18] direction. What am I talking about there? Well, in a state like Colorado, for instance, Colorado's [1:26:23] Colorado's fifth congressional district was leaning Republican. It's a Republican incumbent. Now they [1:26:30] say it's a toss up with Jessica Killen, the Democrat there with a solid chance. There are a few [1:26:34] other districts in the country that are worth noting. I was just talking to a candidate in [1:26:38] Pennsylvania in Pennsylvania's first congressional district. This race now listed as a toss up. [1:26:44] The Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick has been able to hold off Democrats in a district that [1:26:48] actually leans voted for Kamala Harris. You're going to hear from David Urban in just a second. [1:26:52] Pennsylvania guru who's going to tell you that maybe Brian Fitzpatrick will still win, [1:26:57] but Cook Political Report now says this race is a toss up. But you get a sense of how the map has [1:27:04] changed just over the last few days, drifting toward the Democrats in these very, very late moments. [1:27:11] Let's talk about your House ratings. Jessica, you are here to walk us through. We're going to start [1:27:17] with the Senate map. I mean, we have a lot of uncertainty in the Senate map still. I would still [1:27:23] rather be Democrats than Republicans right now in our seven toss ups. I actually think they're leading [1:27:28] in at least five to six of them Democrats are, but it's still within the margin of error. And we've seen [1:27:34] some of these states are very hard to pull. Alaska, Maine, the polls have not been reliable there in the [1:27:39] past. We saw Michigan polling the off in the primary election. But the two races that I'm moving just [1:27:44] shows how the map has expanded. And those two races, forgive me, but Nebraska moved from likely [1:27:49] Republican to lean Republican. Okay. And then Florida was not on the map before and now it is. Right. I mean, [1:27:53] this is a 13 point Trump state. I still think that Angie Nixon is going to struggle more than a regular [1:27:57] Democrat would in Florida, even in a wave type of year, because she has aligned herself with the [1:28:02] Democratic Socialists of America. But it is what I have. We have seen closer polling there. I think [1:28:08] that she's being helped by the strong campaign that David Jolly, the Democratic nominee for governor, [1:28:12] is running as well. Okay. I just want to do this for everybody. Just a reminder and clear this. [1:28:19] Okay. So this is where the battleground map is right now. Let's look at where it was in February [1:28:25] of last year. My initial ratings, yes. From your initial ratings, the entire Midwest to Western [1:28:32] part of the country was not a battleground. And remember right now what we had before, Alaska was [1:28:37] not on, Texas was not on, Iowa was not on, never mind Kansas and so many others here that are now [1:28:46] in February of 2025 were battlegrounds and now they've changed dramatically. I mean, [1:28:52] this is a remarkable shift from last year to now. Democrats deserve credit for recruiting candidates, [1:28:58] convincing a candidate like Mary Paltola to run in Alaska. I think that they took advantage [1:29:03] of Republican divisions in Texas with getting James Tallarico as a strong candidate there. [1:29:08] But Kansas, I think is the big surprise of the cycle. And I think Roger Marshall probably wins the [1:29:12] award for running maybe the worst campaign. And he could have put this race away earlier. Again, [1:29:16] it's a 16 point Trump state. I know that the NRSC told their incumbents, you need to be ready. This [1:29:22] is a tough cycle. And he was one who did not apparently heed that he didn't even have campaign [1:29:26] staff or consultants up until just a few weeks ago. I just want to say something for the record, [1:29:31] as we talk about this remarkable shift. The yellow states are toss ups. Toss up means it can go either [1:29:38] way. It's and it is for the most part on Republican turf, which means they could come home. [1:29:45] And this is the question that I have. And I think that a lot of people do as they're looking for [1:29:48] the polling. What is we're seeing good Democratic turnout in some of these places where we have [1:29:52] partisan data. But if Republican voters come home, they vote on election day, that could certainly because [1:29:57] the DNA of these states is still very Republican. And I think that's why if you see them fall short [1:30:02] in a 16 point Trump state and an 18 point Trump state like South Carolina that we have rated lean [1:30:07] Republican, I think the answer will be it was just too Republican. We're too partisan right now. [1:30:12] And Leanne, I know you're in touch with Republican sources all day, every day. Where are they [1:30:16] most worried as you look at this map? Everywhere. They are really worried everywhere. You know, [1:30:22] just yesterday in South Carolina, the Democratic super PAC Senate majority PAC went in with $750,000 [1:30:29] in digital ads, which doesn't seem like a lot. But it is the first time national Democrats have spent [1:30:34] money in the state and, you know, perhaps decades. It's the first time this cycle as well. And the [1:30:40] reason I'm told is because Democrats got some polling back that showed, you know, Annie Andrews [1:30:45] actually with a very slight lead in private polling than over Darlene Graham. And so, you know, [1:30:54] Republicans are extremely nervous. If they were able to keep the Senate, that is going to be considered [1:31:02] a very, very good night for them. Okay, let's talk about and look at the House ratings that have [1:31:09] changed. Because as we said, 12 of them have moved in the Democrats direction in sort of [1:31:16] some way, shape or form, I want to zero in on some of the new competitive races. [1:31:22] And I specifically want to highlight North Carolina 9. Why am I doing this? Not just because it was a [1:31:28] Trump almost 16 district, but because that is the district of the man, Hudson, Congressman Hudson, [1:31:36] who is in charge of getting Republicans elected to, um, to Congress and keeping the House. And he even [1:31:42] put some money into his own race. Look, that just goes to show that if you are a Republican incumbent, [1:31:48] you do not feel safe wherever you are, regardless of how much you won by last time. [1:31:53] I have talked to Republican members of Congress who, um, have never been as worried as this. I mean, [1:31:59] it reminds me of Democrats in 2010, in 2014. There's just this sense out there that everyone now [1:32:07] is sort of worried. But look, I mean, the reality is, uh, the, the likely GOP and only GOP, [1:32:13] those are still likely to be, uh, in the Republican hands, but it makes everyone nervous. There's no [1:32:18] doubt about it. But just there's one thing that is, is true as we end this, uh, campaign cycle, [1:32:23] the president's approval rating remains, uh, very low and the economy remains very high as the top [1:32:29] issue. Those are the two things that have not changed throughout this entire year. And that is driving [1:32:34] all of this. I want to read a little bit of your newsletter this morning. Jasmine, [1:32:37] the bar for a good night has been set very high. This is about Democrats, obviously too high for [1:32:43] some to steal some phrasing. I had heard earlier today. I think the party is nauseously optimistic. [1:32:50] That is, uh, Rodrika Apple weight of the majority Democrats. Yeah, we were asking this question to [1:32:56] Democrats. Did you set the bar too high? When you go out on the trail, I was at Milwaukee with Kamala [1:33:01] Harris as she was campaigning for David Crawley early this week. And she said, [1:33:05] when Democrats take the Senate, that is a very high bar, even given the changes in the expansion [1:33:10] of the map. So we're asking Democrats across the board, did you guys set, uh, the bar too high so [1:33:16] that if you do not net the Senate, or if you don't flip some of these races that we're talking about, [1:33:21] let's say Texas, um, uh, Kansas, et cetera, will people feel disappointed even though the House [1:33:28] has a good night, which they're expected to have. And the question for people was, [1:33:32] why not expand what we think that we can expand? Why not give, uh, people hope and that we can do [1:33:39] more for what we're talking about with us now to discuss is CNN political commentator, Alyssa [1:33:43] Ferry Griffin, former Trump White House director of strategic communications. All right, Alyssa, [1:33:48] we're four days out from election day. What is your reaction to that report? The Democrats could [1:33:53] fare better than previously expected in these 12 house races. It tracks with what I'm hearing [1:33:59] from a number of operatives and just some of the early voter turnout that we're starting to see. I [1:34:03] mean, we have the most data that we have had to date. We've had, you know, millions of votes cast [1:34:08] in some of these critical battleground states. So I strongly suspect that the House is going to flip [1:34:13] for Democrats, but now we're starting to see that it could be a double digit win for Democrats in the [1:34:17] House. The Senate is just such an open game. I mean, I've talked to Republicans who think that, [1:34:23] yes, Democrats have more optionality to get there. Uh, the fact that Kansas is potentially in play, [1:34:28] Iowa, Texas, but they're really watching Michigan closely, which Mike Rogers has been neck and neck [1:34:34] there with El Syed. And that would be a net loss for Democrats if Mike Rogers were to win. So [1:34:39] the bottom line is nobody knows, um, when it comes to the Senate, there's a lot of surprises that could [1:34:44] happen. But the two things I'm watching are the demographics of early voter turnout. You've seen [1:34:49] heavy Latino turnout, especially in Texas. And then you've seen a lot of young voters turning out. [1:34:54] Those are both positive signs in this moment for Democrats. Uh, but we really won't know anything [1:34:59] till Tuesday. What do you make of that in terms of young voters, that Democrats are pulling in a [1:35:04] lot more young voters in these early votes compared to Republicans? Um, as a Republican, [1:35:10] it's frustrating because Donald Trump made pretty incredible inroads with young voters in 2024. [1:35:16] Um, you know, he reached out to some of those low propensity voters. He went on podcasts and sort [1:35:20] of the manosphere and got a lot of particularly young men to turn out for Republicans. But in the [1:35:26] two years since, I think the policies of this administration have really alienated some of [1:35:30] those voters and pushed them back into Democrats arms. So the cost of living is the biggest issue [1:35:35] for young voters and frankly, all voters. Um, but also no new wars really resonated. If you're, [1:35:41] you know, my generation and you grew up in the global war on terror, [1:35:44] a lot of voters were just motivated for no new wars in the Middle East. And now we're in Iran, [1:35:49] um, something the president ran against doing. So those issues, and I think heavy handed tactics [1:35:54] with immigration have really created quite a bit of a break with younger voters and the Trump [1:36:00] administration. Joining me now is the woman leading the charge for democratic efforts to get [1:36:04] more Democrats elected to the house, the chair of the DCCC, Democratic Congresswoman Susan DelBene of [1:36:09] Washington. Thanks for being here. Absolutely. Four days for four days and another change from [1:36:15] Cook Political. You've got 12 race changes, a notch towards Democrats in all 12 of these. [1:36:23] What does that say to you? How bullish are you this morning? Well, actually, since Labor Day, [1:36:28] we've seen 291 race rating changes towards Democrats, uh, all across the country because people on the [1:36:37] ground are tired. They're hurting. They're tired of the broken promises, costs skyrocketing, people [1:36:43] losing health care. Um, Republicans promise no forever wars. We have a forever war going on right [1:36:49] now with no strategy, no plan. People don't want representatives who are rubber stamps for an [1:36:55] administration. They want folks who are going to stand up for them. And we have great candidates [1:37:00] running, excuse me, literally all across the country and opportunities in we're on offense, [1:37:06] 66 districts across the country. They all keep moving our direction. And as you said, we need to [1:37:12] net three to win, but we will absolutely take back the majority and have a strong governing majority. [1:37:17] Absolutely take back the majority is how bullish is, is where you are this morning. [1:37:21] Yes. Where is the floor and how pie in the sky are you willing to go? You've got Cook says you [1:37:28] can pick up the range that they've got is between 12 and 25 seats. Crystal Ball, Larry Sabato's team [1:37:34] has it between 15 and 33 seats. Where's your, what's the floor you're working with right now? And [1:37:40] in the minimum number of seats you guys are picking up? Um, we're going to take back the majority. I never [1:37:44] give a number. My job is to make sure we fight for every seat across the country, but you do, [1:37:49] you do count numbers. I do count numbers. And yet I know that we have incredible opportunities. [1:37:55] As I said, we have 66 races where we're on offense across the country, from Maine to Southern [1:38:00] California, from Alaska to Florida. And do you, is your, is your mind you're going to pick up double [1:38:05] digits? I think we have a strong opportunity to take back the majority and have a strong governing [1:38:10] majority. Um, so we're going to fight for every seat, but I take nothing for granted. We're going to [1:38:15] work hard over these next four days to make sure we win every seat we can across the country. Of [1:38:19] the 12 that I'm looking at here, um, from Cook Political that have, that have shifted a notch [1:38:24] toward Democrats now, which one that you've been tracking from, let's say Labor Day to now, [1:38:31] which one is the, which one is the juiciest? Which one do you, are you focused on most as [1:38:36] the most likely pickup for you guys? You know, I think there are opportunities across the board [1:38:41] here. Um, I think one of the things you kind of are pointed out was that some of these races are in [1:38:47] districts that Republicans gerrymandered, um, to try to make opportunities for them improve across [1:38:53] the country. You talked about North Carolina and Richard Hudson seat. Um, they've been redoing the [1:39:00] maps in North Carolina every cycle, it seems like to try to create more and more opportunities and [1:39:05] it's backfiring. Not only do we have opportunities in his district, but North Carolina 11, Jamie Ager [1:39:11] running incredible campaign. Um, we're going to pick up seats in North Carolina and Florida, [1:39:18] Texas, other places that they gerrymandered, they're backfiring because people didn't get [1:39:23] to have a say they want. We have incredible candidates. That's probably our secret sauce [1:39:27] is we have great candidates running across the country and people are tired of the broken promises. [1:39:33] So we have opportunities even in places that were gerrymandered. [1:39:36] When we're talking about control of the U S house of representatives in 2024, [1:39:40] there were three races in the entire country in districts where Republicans won, [1:39:46] but also were won by Kamala Harris. One of those was Pennsylvania's first congressional [1:39:51] district where Brian Fitzpatrick, the Republican incumbent, he won pretty easily by almost 13 points [1:39:56] in. This was a district that Kamala Harris actually won. So Democrats have been painting this [1:40:02] as a target, even though, even though Brian Fitzpatrick did very, very well there. There's been a change [1:40:09] just this morning in this district before this morning, this district cook political report rated [1:40:14] as lean Republican. That is changed in the last half hour. Literally now Cook says this race is a toss [1:40:21] up between the incumbent Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick and the Democrat Bob Harvey. Joining us right now [1:40:27] is the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania's first congressional district. Bob Harvey. Good to see you [1:40:33] this morning. One of the ways that Brian Fitzpatrick has positioned himself in this district and been able [1:40:38] to get reelected in a district that leans a little bit blue is by voting against the Republican Party [1:40:45] and the president United States. The Philadelphia Inquirer said he votes more against the president [1:40:49] and the Republicans than any other Republican member of Congress. So why do you tell voters in the [1:40:55] Pennsylvania first congressional district there needs to be a change? Well, for a lot of reasons, [1:41:01] it's good to be with you, John. Thank you for having me on. You know, Brian Fitzpatrick has never [1:41:07] voted against the president's agenda when it actually mattered. He's done nothing to derail this agenda. [1:41:11] In fact, the Inquirer pointed that out in their endorsement of me. But this is a district where [1:41:17] like across the country people are hurting. People are struggling with higher bills when it comes to [1:41:22] groceries, heating oil, gasoline, affordability when it comes to health care. And it all goes back to [1:41:30] the votes that Brian Fitzpatrick has cast. I listened to some interviews that you've done and read some [1:41:36] some exchanges you've had with Pennsylvania organizations. One of the things you said is [1:41:40] when you decided to get into this race, you had already determined that the Democratic Party had lost [1:41:45] its way. Can you give me some specific examples of where you think your party has lost its way? Well, [1:41:54] look, I'm the first in my family to go to college. You know, none of my grandparents graduated high [1:41:58] school and my two grandfathers didn't go to high school. And yet the Democratic Party is what we've [1:42:03] always been part of in my family because we believed it fought for working families that fought for, [1:42:08] you know, making sure people could earn a wage that could help them buy those homes they wanted to buy [1:42:14] cars, go on vacations when they needed to provide for their kids. And I think over the last couple decades, [1:42:19] we've drifted away from from fighting for those people. They just don't trust the Democratic Party to fight for [1:42:24] those affordability issues and economic issues anymore. So I'm proud of this campaign's focus [1:42:29] on those issues. And I think people are are now focused. And I think the party is more focused [1:42:33] than it has been the past. Now, I do not know if you're an avid user of Truth Social. I expect not. [1:42:39] But just a few minutes ago this morning, President Trump wrote on a social media platform, he wrote, [1:42:44] inflation is way down under Trump, which of course, is that not actually true. Inflation is up since the [1:42:52] president took office. You can see where it was at his inauguration. You can see where it is now. [1:42:56] But what do you what's your reaction to the president telling his supporters, [1:43:00] telling the country inflation is down? Well, the I don't have to have a reaction [1:43:08] any more than the people in this district across the country know the truth. You know, [1:43:12] I'm hearing, especially over the past couple of weeks, people have gotten that first shipment of [1:43:15] heating oil. There's a lot of people in this district, especially seniors and older homes [1:43:19] who still use oil heat. And those bills are 70%, sometimes double what they were last year. [1:43:25] And this is just their first shipment of heating oil that they're going to have this winter. [1:43:29] So that's the pain that people are facing. So they know what the real reality is when it comes [1:43:34] to inflation. So you are a teacher, a former teacher. How many years did you cheat civics and [1:43:39] social studies for 26 years in public schools? God bless you. That's a long time. So you no doubt [1:43:47] talk to students about Congress and what it was like to run for Congress. How is actually running [1:43:53] for Congress different than you might have talked about it with your students over the last 26 years? [1:44:02] Well, you know, it's funny. This was not something that was on my agenda. Things to do was to run for [1:44:06] Congress. And so I never really talked a whole lot about it, although I was just in a school the other [1:44:10] day talking to a young group of Democratic high school students and their club. You know, certainly the [1:44:17] attention that this race has gotten. You just mentioned the Cook Political Report changing [1:44:20] the rating to Tulsa. This is getting the national attention in this race because it is such a swing [1:44:27] county and swing district. And so that attention really is something that is taking a little get used [1:44:33] to. Bob Harvey, we appreciate you being with us. I know you've got a busy few days ahead. A lot of [1:44:38] people watching your district for signs which way the entire Congress will go on Tuesday night. Thank you. [1:44:44] All right, folks, the moment of truth is here. It's time for my final midterm forecast. We're talking [1:44:49] the United States House. We're talking the United States Senate. And I've looked at thousands, [1:44:53] no, hundreds of thousands of data points, thousands of polls to understand which way the tides [1:44:59] are shaking. And we're going to start off with the U.S. House of Representatives. We're going to be [1:45:03] talking about all 435 seats. We're going to be projecting all of them. But before we do so, [1:45:09] we have to understand how we get to that forecast. And it all starts off, well, with the man at the top, [1:45:16] President Trump. And look at this. Look at his approval rating, his net approval rating. He's down [1:45:21] there swimming with the Little Mermaid. He's 24 points underwater. That is the worst. That is the [1:45:27] worst for any president ever, dating back to at least Harry S. Truman in 1946. The worst for any [1:45:34] president before a midterm election. Now, of course, Trump being unpopular is only part of the [1:45:40] Republicans' issues. Take a look at this. Approve of Congress. Just 14 percent. Look, Congress always [1:45:45] has a low approval rating, but never this low. Never this low going into an election. 14 percent, [1:45:50] the lowest ever going into an election on record. 81 percent disapprove. Now, look, folks, I know what [1:45:56] you're saying. Harry, Harry, you know, folks always disapprove of Congress, but they like their own [1:46:01] Congressman. Not anymore. Not anymore. This is even more troubling. Look at this. Say their own [1:46:07] Congress member deserves re-election or does not deserve. For the first time ever going into an [1:46:11] election, look at this. The plurality. The plurality. 45 percent say that their own member of Congress [1:46:17] does not deserve re-election. Woof. Now, what does this all relate back to, right? What does this all [1:46:23] relate back to? Well, inflation is the name of the game. And Americans, simply put, do not believe that the [1:46:30] president of the United States is measuring up because it was the reason that Trump got elected [1:46:35] back in 2024, re-elected. Look at this. Trusted more on the issue of inflation by nine points over [1:46:41] Kamala Harris. But look at this. His net approval rating now, 52 points underwater. That is more [1:46:47] unpopular than any other president ever. Yes, it's even more unpopular than Jimmy Carter was on [1:46:54] inflation. He is down there swimming in Lake Erie. My God, it's terrible. Now, this all, of course, [1:47:02] hurts Republicans when they are running for re-election and those who want to join Congress. [1:47:07] I don't want to join Congress, but for some reason, Democrats and Republicans on both sides [1:47:11] apparently do want to join Congress. And look at this. This is a national congressional ballot [1:47:15] Democratic lead. And it has been, it has been widening. It has been widening. Look at this. [1:47:20] A year ago, Democrats were up by five. Now, in the summer, this past summer, it was plus six. [1:47:27] And today, look at this. Plus nine. And that plus nine is important because it easily overcomes the [1:47:33] GOP redistricting. Remember those redistricting wars? Democrats, Republicans, re-drawing the lines. [1:47:39] Republicans ended up winning that battle. But in reality, all Democrats probably need is to win the [1:47:46] popular House vote by plus four. You don't have to be a mathematical genius to know that plus nine [1:47:50] is significantly greater than plus four. Now, when we're talking about the national generic [1:47:55] congressional ballot, right, or the national House ballot, that's one way to measure potential success [1:47:59] in the House. The other way or another way is to look at race voters. I'm talking about your Cooks, [1:48:04] your Sabatos, who are rating each individual race right down to the T. Now, this, what we're seeing, [1:48:11] is something truly historic going on here. House seats at least leaning Democratic. Well, right now, [1:48:17] in 2026, we're talking about 224. Look back past, jump in the DeLorean, go to the past cycles. In 2022, [1:48:25] it was 193 at this point in the cycle. 193 leaning Democratic. Democrats ended up north of 210 seats. [1:48:33] How about in 2018 when Democrats easily won back a House majority net gain of 40 seats in the House? [1:48:39] Even then, they were well south of 218 seats. 218, of course, being the magic number needed for a [1:48:46] majority. So Democrats are already running well ahead of their pace in prior election cycles, [1:48:52] according to the race raters. So you put together that national generic ballot, you put together [1:48:57] that with the race raters, say, hey, Democrats are in pretty good shape. Here is one word of warning. One [1:49:02] word of warning is that if we look back at these race ratings, right, historically speaking, [1:49:08] we can see, or at least those forecasts, we can see that the forecasts sometimes actually overshoot [1:49:14] Democrats. They overshoot Democrats. So this is 2020 U.S. House races. The House seat forecast, [1:49:19] 242 for the Democrats back in 2020. And look at what ended up happening. Democrats won only 222. So [1:49:26] there was an undershoot. The Democrats actually fell about 20 seats short. They fell about 20 seats [1:49:32] shorts of what the forecasts were projecting. And you need to keep that in mind. That's why I'm also looking [1:49:38] that it has nothing to do with polling, nothing to do with race raters who are looking at the polling. [1:49:41] I'm talking about primary turnout. And you can see this here, national primary turnout edge by party. [1:49:47] And what's so important is in each of the past few cycles, the midterms, the party that had the [1:49:51] larger primary turnout ended up winning the House. 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022. In all the cases, [1:49:59] the same party that had the national primary turnout edge went on to win the U.S. House. And you know what, [1:50:03] this year? You know who has the primary edge? Well, it is Team B-L-U-E. So here it is. [1:50:13] It's actually a moment of truth. It is a moment of truth that we're coming up on. [1:50:17] That is, what is actually the most likely scenario for the U.S. House of Representatives? And I will [1:50:22] note that it's chances of climbing ever higher. Higher and higher, as Jackie Wilson once said. [1:50:28] It's up eight points from where we were back on August 13th. Back on August 14th. And what is that? [1:50:34] What is the chance? Well, our most likely scenario is, but da-da-da-da-da, Democrats. Chance to win [1:50:41] the U.S. House of Representatives up to 92 percent. Up to 92 percent that Democrats win back the U.S. [1:50:48] House of Representatives according to an aggregate of models, my aggregate of models. Now look, 92 percent [1:50:54] is not 100 percent. That still leaves Republicans with an 8 percent chance. But chances are Democrats [1:51:01] going to take back the House. And more than that, they're going to take back the House with ease. [1:51:05] Because I promised you a specific seat forecast. And here it is. In the horseshoe, you can see it. [1:51:11] There's more blue than red. And so our final projection, our final House forecast is 237 seats [1:51:18] for the Dems, 198 seats for the Republicans. Look, this is the most likely forecast. I'm not saying I'm [1:51:23] going to be right on. It's going to be very interesting to see after the elections. We're going to go back. [1:51:28] We're going to see how close that this actually got. But at this point, Democrats look like they're [1:51:32] not just going to reach 218 seats. They're going to exceed it with ease. Of course, I know the real [1:51:37] reason, or at least I think I know the real reason, that a lot of you have tuned into this. And that is [1:51:42] you want a Senate forecast. And we do have a final Senate forecast. But this is obviously exhausting [1:51:47] me. I've had a very long week. So a little mid-forecast drink for me. I do enjoy a good cream soda. And [1:51:58] there we go. Okay. So we're going to be projecting out all of the Senate seats, all 35 Senate seats, [1:52:05] all the states in yellow. We're going to fill them on in. We're going to fill them on in. But [1:52:10] before we do so, we have to understand just how hard it is for Democrats, historically speaking, [1:52:15] how hard it is for Democrats and why Republicans at the beginning of this cycle, we thought were in [1:52:19] the catbird seat. And this is why. Take a look here. Senate flips in states that the party lost by at [1:52:24] least 10 points in the prior presidential election. How many seats did they flip in [1:52:29] non-special elections since 2011? That is over the last 15 years. They flipped zero, zero, zero. [1:52:37] They flipped zero seats. And why is that so important? Because Democrats need at least two. [1:52:41] At least they need to flip at least two plus 10 Trump states in order to win back the United States [1:52:46] Senate. But here's where it gets really interesting. Here's where it gets really interesting. Look at this. [1:52:51] Okay. Take a look at these key Senate race Dem poll margins at this point where Trump won by at least [1:52:58] 10 points. You actually see a lot of blue on your screen. Alaska, plus three. Will be interesting to [1:53:03] see if the final polls actually end up matching the results, given all the controversies there [1:53:07] with the two Dan Sullivans. Ohio, Sherrod Brown seeming to do pretty gosh darn well at this point, [1:53:12] leading by three points. The Democrat there trying to win back a seat in the Senate. Of course, he [1:53:16] is a former longtime incumbent. Texas, James Tallarico hoping to become the first United States [1:53:22] senator from Texas since 1988. He's up by three. Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democratic senator [1:53:28] since 1932 when Babe Ruth looked to the bleachers and called his shot in the 32 World Series against [1:53:34] the Cubs at Wrigley Field. And Iowa, you can't get any closer than that. The Democrat Josh Turek in [1:53:39] the polling up by the smallest, smallest of margins of point. Should be noted all these races are really [1:53:45] tight right now, but they do seem to be leaning slightly Democratic, slightly Democratic. Now, [1:53:50] what could possibly cause this? Because Trump won in these states by at least 10 points just two [1:53:55] years ago. Well, my dear friends, it's something that should have Republicans nationwide picking up [1:54:01] the phone, picking up the phone. Hello? Hello? What is going on, White House? What is going on? [1:54:07] And here's the deal. Trump, despite winning all those states by at least 10 points, [1:54:11] is now underwater by double digits in all of them. In Texas, he's 13 points underwater. Alaska, [1:54:16] 15 points underwater. Deep down there, I mean, my goodness gracious, you can get in the Pacific Ocean. [1:54:21] You can't get as far south as Donald Trump is right now. How about in Iowa, the cornfields of Iowa? [1:54:26] He's way underneath those cornfields. Look at that. 16 points underwater. Hanses, 16 points underwater. [1:54:33] And Ohio, he's down there in the Ohio River, my dear friends. He's 16 points underwater. Woof. It's no bueno, [1:54:42] not good news. Now, here's the thing to keep in mind, though. I know a lot of you are wondering [1:54:47] about this, and it is really worth this asterisk. And this gives hope. This gives hopes to Republicans. [1:54:53] Look at this. Okay. You all know, if you're watching this video, that polling has tended to [1:54:59] underestimate Republicans. And that is true, especially in Trump-won states. Look at this. [1:55:04] The GOP has beat their final Senate poll average from 2018 to 2024 by 4.1 points in the states Trump won in [1:55:12] the prior election. We're looking at the closed states, the states that in the final Senate polling [1:55:16] average were all within five. And that is the case with all, with all of these states. I mean, [1:55:21] look at this. 3, 3, 3, 3, less than one. So when we see that and we see, oh, wow, that 4.1, [1:55:28] all of that is within the historic range in which Republicans could potentially win. [1:55:32] And that's why this map really, to me, tells an important story. This is very possible. This is [1:55:38] possible. Your 2026 Senate, if polls underestimate the GOP by force points, right? Across the board. [1:55:44] Look at that. You get Michigan. Michigan goes red. Iowa stays red. Texas is red. Alaska is red. Kansas [1:55:54] stays red. And you just see that it is quite possible that Republicans do in fact hold on the [1:56:00] United States Senate. But that's not the full story. Because it's not just about Trump and his [1:56:05] unpopularity. It is also about how unpopular these different Senate candidates are, the Republicans [1:56:12] in these deeply red states. Look at this. They're all double digits underwater. Dan Sullivan, Ashley [1:56:18] Hinson in Iowa, Roger Marshall in Kansas, John Husted in Ohio, Kemp Paxton. Kemp Paxton, 29 points [1:56:25] underwater. What the heck is that? That makes him by far the most unpopular GOP Senate nominee in Texas [1:56:32] this century. I will also note that this Roger Marshall number, minus 17, I did the math, that also [1:56:36] makes Roger Marshall at this late point in the campaign the most unpopular GOP nominee for Senate in [1:56:43] Kansas. Now, it goes beyond that though, right? Because we're talking about history potentially being made [1:56:48] and I know it's truly historic. Beto O'Rourke was behind at this point back in the 2018 cycle. Now, I've been [1:56:54] talking about the plus 10 Trump states, right? I've been talking about them. But there's also another [1:56:59] Republican-held Senate seat where we've had an incumbent who has outperformed their polling in [1:57:03] the past. And I'm, of course, talking about Susan Collins in Maine. Susan Collins in Maine. Her net [1:57:08] popularity, though, in Maine right now is the worst it has been heading into an election this entire [1:57:15] century in the 2000s. Look at this. Twelve points underwater. So, yes, Susan Collins has outperformed her [1:57:21] polling in the past, but she has never been as unpopular as she is right now. And this is what we're [1:57:27] seeing across the map. We're seeing historic anomalies. Not just that Trump is unpopular, [1:57:33] but these GOP nominees are historically unpopular. So, what is, in fact, the most likely Senate [1:57:40] scenario? Well, I can tell you that the chance of it has gone way up. It has gone way up from where [1:57:46] we were when we made our first forecast back on August the 13th. Look at this. Up 19 points, [1:57:52] nearly up 20 points. I guess 19 be one, a four, and a five. Up 19 points, according to my aggregation [1:57:59] of models. And where does that leave us? Where does that leave us in terms of the most likely [1:58:04] Senate outcome? Well, drum roll, if you please. Here it is. Chance that the Democrats win the Senate, [1:58:10] this is the most likely outcome, is now up to 71 percent. 71 percent. I never thought I'd see the day [1:58:17] early on in this campaign where Democrats would have a 71 percent chance of winning back the United [1:58:23] States Senate. I mean, that is a huge chance, but it's still not a hundred percent. Republicans still [1:58:29] have a 29 percent chance of holding on to the United States Senate. And that ain't nothing. [1:58:35] That ain't nothing. Because a good baseball hitter, right, gets on, what, 30 percent, bats 300, [1:58:40] although baseball players have been getting hits less and less. But that's right near that. That's right [1:58:45] near that. And of course, we can remember the Wade Boggs of the world, the George Bretts of the world. [1:58:49] They were easily breaking 300 batting averages, getting on at least 30 percent of the time, [1:58:53] all of the time. So look, this is still, this is still a quite a high possibility, right? You see [1:58:59] players who have 290 batting averages getting on a whole heck of a lot. Now, this is 71 percent, [1:59:05] right? But I promised you specific seat forecast, specific seat forecast. So here we go. This is it. [1:59:11] This is the specific seat forecast. And I'm going to get nerdy for a second here, [1:59:15] but first, what are we talking about? We are talking about 52 Democrats. 52 Democrats compared [1:59:21] to 48 Republicans, compared to 48 Republicans. So Democrats, not just getting the 51 seats necessary, [1:59:27] but getting the 52, a clear majority of United States Senate seats. Now, if you're looking at your [1:59:34] map here, you'll see, look, Texas goes blue. Kansas goes blue. Alaska, yes, Alaska at this point [1:59:41] goes blue. We'll have to wait and see. Ohio goes blue to get the flip in North Carolina. Michigan [1:59:47] stays blue. And Maine, yes, even in Maine, you get a flip. But here's the thing I want you to keep in [1:59:53] mind as we look at this. The race in these states, Maine, Kansas, Iowa stays red, and Alaska are all very, [2:00:06] very, very close. It wouldn't surprise me if any of these seats went the other way. Now, [2:00:10] if you're truly a nerd at home, you might be tallying up and you go, Harry, wait a minute. [2:00:15] It's actually 53 seats that you're showing that Democrats will win in terms of the seats they [2:00:22] currently have and then the seats that they would gain in this election. Here's the thing. We're [2:00:26] talking probabilistically so that one of these states, one of these states that currently that I am [2:00:31] saying are going to go blue may not go blue. I mean, the race in Kansas right now in the polling, [2:00:36] in the projections, it seems to be very, very tight. Maybe that seat actually goes red. We don't know. [2:00:41] We're talking probabilistically. And when we add it up, it's 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans. [2:00:46] So that is right now the final seat forecast. We'll go back after the election, [2:00:51] see how it works out individually. But I'm putting it on the line right here. [2:00:54] And with that, we head to my favorite section. Yes. Yes. It's the bonus section. [2:01:02] Do, do, do. I do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do. Boo, boo. [2:01:07] Look, I know some of you are saying, House, Senate. But what about the Govs? You're truly a nerd. [2:01:12] You're saying you're interested in governors outside of your state. But don't worry. [2:01:15] I got you covered. I got you covered. Chance that a majority of Govs are Democrats. And this [2:01:21] comes from Cal, she's CNN's prediction market, prediction market partner. And look at this, [2:01:25] the chance up like a rocket, up like a rocket after the midterms. You know, back on March 30th, [2:01:31] it was just a 27 percent chance, just a 27 percent chance. Now, what are we talking about? We're [2:01:36] talking about an 83 percent chance, an 83 percent chance. So at this point, it looks more likely [2:01:42] than not, whether you look at the prediction markets like this, whether you look at the polling data, [2:01:46] whether you look at the race raters, that most governors, the majority of governors after this [2:01:51] election will in fact be Democrats. And that is really rare. That is really rare in modern history, [2:01:57] because look at this. Look at this. How about the times that Dems held the majority of Gov seats [2:02:01] in the past 32 years? It's just 12. Just 12 percent of the time. It is truly rare. [2:02:08] So if in fact the projections do come true, we're looking at something that some of you have maybe [2:02:14] only seen very little in your lifetime. I bet a lot of our audience has only seen it for four years [2:02:19] in their lifetime. I mean, we're talking 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, when Democrats lost that governor's [2:02:26] majority, those governor's mansions majority. Now, look, as we look forward, I want to push [2:02:32] the ball forward a little bit right in our bonus slide section. Look ahead after the midterms. [2:02:36] If the projections are right, I do wonder how the Democratic majorities are going to like their [2:02:41] voters back at home. We'll put them in office because, you know what, there's been a lot of [2:02:44] Dem on Dem crime. Democrats are expecting a lot, a lot from their leaders if in fact they do win the [2:02:50] majorities. Because look at this. Net approval of congressional Dem leaders. You know, the last time you had a [2:02:54] Trump midterm, it was plus 19 points. Look where it is now. Way down there. It's minus 12 points. [2:03:00] This is Democrats on Democrats, for goodness sake. Democrats don't even like their own leaders. [2:03:05] They're sick of their own leaders. And that puts a lot of pressure on Democrats if, in fact, [2:03:10] they do get into power. And there's one leader they specifically don't like. And that is this [2:03:14] gentleman. And that is the senior senator from the great state of New York, my home state, Chuck Schumer. [2:03:20] His net popularity rating among Democrats is minus five points. I went back and looked at all the [2:03:26] polling that I could since 1985. That's over 40 years of polling. And you know what that is? He's [2:03:33] the least popular Democratic leader in the United States Senate since at least 1985. Well, folks, [2:03:40] that's it. I'm done. This has been a lot. My voice is running a little low. Oh, no, wait a minute. [2:03:46] I got it back. The mic helped me a lot. And with that, folks, you know what I say? Peace out. [2:03:53] New this morning, the Cook Political Report shifted 12 House races in the Democrats' direction. [2:04:00] The Senate Democrats are feeling, we think, better than they have before. But on this Halloween Eve, [2:04:09] why, perhaps, should Democrats be scared? With us now, CNN Chief Data Analyst, [2:04:15] Harry, and with some spooky data, spooky data for Democrats with just days to go. [2:04:21] Yeah. Okay. So if we're talking about what Democrats need in order to win back the United [2:04:26] States Senate, right, let's just start with the baseline. They need to win in states that Donald [2:04:32] John Trump didn't just win two years ago, but won by double digits. And why would that potentially be [2:04:38] difficult? Because I want you to take a look at here. We're going to look at all the non-special [2:04:41] elections. And take a look at Senate flips in states that the party lost by 10 or more points [2:04:47] in the last presidential election. The number is zero, zero, zero since 2011. And Democrats need [2:04:55] to flip at least two, two states in which Donald Trump won by double digits just two years ago. [2:05:02] It simply put has not happened in 15 years. It hasn't happened and they need it to happen. [2:05:07] Exactly right. Which is why it should scare Democrats. And how has the polling been [2:05:13] in these Trump states? Yeah. Okay. So it simply put hasn't happened. And there have been times in [2:05:18] which the polls actually suggested, hey, Republicans might actually lose in some of these Trump won [2:05:24] states. And then it didn't happen. And we've seen it happen time in and time out. Okay. GOP has beat [2:05:30] the final Senate poll average by 4.1 points in states Trump won in the prior presidential election. [2:05:38] And we're looking at the closed states. We're looking at the closed states. And this is one [2:05:41] thing to keep in mind, which is we look at states like Ohio. We look at states like Texas. We look at [2:05:46] states like Alaska. We look at states like Kansas. And if you took a polling average in all of them, [2:05:51] well, they're all within this range. They're all within this range. So you look at this and you look at [2:05:57] this and you say there have been zero of these flips and you go, ooh, are the polls potentially [2:06:02] wrong again? And that's the type of thing that gives a little silence to Republicans. [2:06:07] And it's, I think, a spooky, spooky, spooky for Democrats. Okay. So just as an academic exercise, [2:06:13] put this number over the polling averages we've seen in these key states. Yeah. And this is exactly [2:06:18] it. So, okay. 2026 Senate, if the polls underestimate the GOP by four plus points in these Trump won states, [2:06:25] look at this. Michigan is red. We got Ohio being red. We have Iowa being red. We have Kansas being [2:06:33] red. We have Texas being red. We have Alaska being red. And that math is Republicans hold on to the [2:06:40] United States Senate 52 to 48. And that even keeps Maine blue where Susan Collins has had her own [2:06:45] ability to outperform the polling data as it comes in at the end, as we saw back in 2020. So if the past [2:06:51] polling errors hold in these Trump won states, then all of a sudden Republicans are able to [2:06:56] hold on the United States Senate and with ease. So temper expectations, maybe for Democrats there. [2:07:01] What are the prediction markets saying about all this? Yeah. And this is the thing. Look, [2:07:04] the prediction markets, take a look at the cash prediction market. Yes, the Democrats are favored. [2:07:08] 69% Republicans with the 31% chance to win the United States Senate. But look, 31% things happen [2:07:15] all of the time. You know, Johnny Bay and I were talking about this before we came on. You think about [2:07:19] the NBA finals last year, the Knicks came back against the Spurs. And let me tell you, [2:07:24] in a lot of those games, their chance of winning those games was significantly less than 31%. [2:07:28] Harry N, again, food for thought with just days to go before the election. [2:07:32] A lot of news this morning. Happy Halloween. Happy Halloween. What are you going as? [2:07:36] I'm going as a professional television personality, which is very different from what I normally am. [2:07:41] Yeah, you're going to have to change quite a bit for that. Harry N, thank you very much. [2:07:44] Thank you. President Trump is taking his campaign tour back to Florida shortly, [2:07:47] as new polling finds the fight to be that state's next governor is nearly tied. New York Times-Siena [2:07:53] poll shows Democrat David Jolly trailing Trump ally Byron Donalds by four points, barely missing [2:07:58] the poll's 3.9% margin of error. Meantime, the same poll in the Senate race finds Republican incumbent [2:08:05] Ashley Moody holding a modest six-point lead over Democrat Angie Nixon. The president rallying with [2:08:11] Moody and Donalds tonight. Let's discuss with Evan Power, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party. [2:08:16] Evan, thank you so much for sharing part of your afternoon with us. I want to start by asking you [2:08:20] about a post from Governor Ron DeSantis this morning, posting that Republicans are underperforming in [2:08:26] Polk County in the key I-4 corridor. He recently also said that turnout is not as strong as Republicans [2:08:33] would like at this point, that the party has work to do. What is your response? [2:08:37] Well, I think we do have work to do. If the vote was held today, we would not be where we want to be. [2:08:43] But the fact is, our voters choose to vote on election day. You're also seeing people go to [2:08:48] early voting today at a very high number. At the end of the day, we have a 1.5 million [2:08:53] voter advantage here in Florida. And when our voters vote on election day, it will tell the [2:08:57] tale that we will have those wins. And the fact that people think four and six point wins in Florida [2:09:02] are now narrow shows how far the state has really come because they used to be closer than that on the [2:09:07] regular election schedule. But now we're going to win big and our voters are going to turn out on election day. [2:09:11] So to your point about 1.5 million registered voters, you were further along four years ago [2:09:18] than at this point when it came to early voting. About 300,000 more registered Republicans than [2:09:24] Democrats had voted at this point. Today, only 76,000 more registered Republicans have voted. [2:09:31] Why do you think the numbers are lagging? Where are those voters now? [2:09:34] Well, if you look at that same New York Times poll that you cited on the on the state of the race, [2:09:40] it said 25 percent of our voters who voted early or by mail in the 2024 election were more likely to vote [2:09:48] on election day this time. I think our voters are fired up and ready to vote on election day, [2:09:53] which is what the president's been asking them to do. So I think we're starting to see those turn [2:09:57] up numbers kick in and early voting. But Tuesday, we're going to have a big red day here in Florida. [2:10:01] I want to ask you about one particular issue in the Senate race. In a statement following the [2:10:07] passage of the Big Beautiful Bill, you thanked Senator Ashley Moody for championing the bill [2:10:12] because it, quote, gives ICE the resources it needs to deport violent criminal illegal aliens. [2:10:18] Now, according to TRAC, about 70 percent of those in ICE detention have no criminal conviction. [2:10:24] That includes about 40,000 people without a conviction detained before the bill passed. [2:10:30] Are you concerned that Trump's immigration policies are going to hurt turnout among Latino voters, [2:10:35] which are crucial in Florida? No, that's not what we're seeing in the polling here. [2:10:40] If you look here in Florida, immigration was the number one issue of the last election. [2:10:45] And they wanted to get people out of this country that were here illegally, [2:10:48] especially those that are violent criminal criminals, but people who are here illegally by and large. [2:10:53] So that is what the president of this administration has done. And I think if you look at Miami, [2:10:57] they are more concerned about Angie Nixon, who sided with the Cuban regime, would not call them a [2:11:03] dictatorship. And I think Angie Nixon, who's a member of the DSA, should go to Cuba and live [2:11:09] under the failed policies that she's advocating here in Florida. [2:11:12] I want to get to Angie Nixon in a moment, the Democratic senatorial candidate. She's denied [2:11:19] what you're accusing her of. But I want to go back for a moment because Republican Congresswoman [2:11:23] Maria Elvira Salazar of the 27th District has said that the Hispanics who helped Trump get elected [2:11:28] feel betrayed, including thousands of Cubans who've been deported to countries that they never set foot [2:11:34] in, to Mexico, to Africa. You don't think that is going to cost you votes? [2:11:38] I don't think that we're seeing that. We're seeing the people here in Florida who have come here [2:11:45] are aligned with the conservative philosophies that we've advocated. Immigration was a number [2:11:50] one issue. It was an issue in those Hispanic communities, and they voted for the president. [2:11:54] So the congresswoman is wrong in saying that voters in her district feel betrayed in this ad? [2:11:59] I think she has her opinion. What I'm seeing across the entire state is different than [2:12:05] necessarily what she's seeing in her congressional district or claims to see in her congressional [2:12:09] district. I mean, if she's saying it, isn't it because she thinks that it's going to cost [2:12:14] her voters and she wants to win? And so she's putting out a message that voters in that district [2:12:18] will resonate with. Doesn't that contradict what you're saying? [2:12:22] Well, she can talk about the messaging in her election, and I think she should do that. [2:12:26] What I'm talking about is the state as a whole. We have a very large Hispanic population. [2:12:30] They support the president. They support the immigration policy. And that's why we're still [2:12:34] going to win on Tuesday. And we have this. We will have the support of our Hispanic friends [2:12:39] across the board. So on the claim that Angie Nixon supports the Cuban government, [2:12:43] you're talking about an interview in which she gave to CBS News recently. She was asked if there's [2:12:49] a dictatorship in Cuba. And her answer was that, according to Cubans that she speaks to, [2:12:54] there is a dictatorship. And she was asked to clarify that later in a radio interview with [2:12:59] Enrique Santos in South Florida. Let's play that clip. [2:13:02] I have stated time and time again, on multiple occasions and interviews, [2:13:08] that the Cuban government is a dictatorship. [2:13:11] Well, here you're clarifying. If Fidel Castro was a bad person. Yes. [2:13:14] Dictatorship is a bad thing. It is. Socialism is not good. [2:13:18] It's not. And you know what else is not good? The way in which this country is operating. [2:13:24] Now, Nixon has been consistent on this. I know because I asked her in August, [2:13:28] soon after she won the primary, about a statement that the DSA put out extolling Fidel Castro. [2:13:35] Let's play that clip. Is celebrating Fidel Castro something you agree with? [2:13:41] That's something that I'm not supportive of. I am supportive of ensuring that [2:13:48] housing is a right for everyone, that folks have quality health care, [2:13:52] as well as fully funded public education. And I would not have supported that. [2:13:57] Are you using socialism as a boogeyman to scare people that have endured [2:14:05] generational trauma in South Florida against voting for a Democrat? [2:14:10] I don't think it's a boogeyman when you sign up for the Democrat Socialists of America. [2:14:16] She is a socialist. She signed the card. She is a member of the party. [2:14:20] She is endorsed by the Democrat Socialists. And no, it's not a boogeyman. In Florida, [2:14:24] I've worked in the exile community. People who've had their freedom, their property, [2:14:28] and sometimes lives taken away from them because of these failed regimes that she's advocating for. [2:14:34] So no, socialism isn't welcome in Florida. She's not advocating for those regimes, though. [2:14:36] And she is a socialist. She is clearly that. [2:14:39] She has said that she signed up for something with the Democratic Socialists of America, [2:14:44] as well as other groups, because she wanted to expand the tent. Nevertheless, [2:14:48] I do want to ask you one more thing. A couple of weeks ago, you told WLRN that it's all about [2:14:53] turnout now. So if Republicans lose ground in Florida, is that on you? [2:14:57] I think it's on all of us and it is on every Republican. We must turn out voters. We built [2:15:05] a one point five million voter advantage for a reason so that we could face headwinds in a [2:15:10] midterm election when you're the power and party in power and you want to defy history. So we're [2:15:14] going to turn out every Republican voter. I'm confident that the next couple of days of early [2:15:19] voting and on Election Day, we're going to have a big red Florida. And on Tuesday, we're going to be [2:15:23] talking about how Florida continues to lead the way and we continue to be the free state of Florida. [2:15:27] We look forward to the next conversation after Tuesday. Evan Power, thanks for joining us. [2:15:33] Thank you. [2:15:34] The richest man in the world is now the largest political donor ever for a single election cycle. [2:15:39] New reporting from our colleague, Frederica Skouten. She dives into just how much Elon Musk [2:15:46] is propping up the GOP and how the party is spending his money. Musk has given nearly half a billion, [2:15:52] half a billion dollars. There you see exactly 445. I shouldn't say exactly because we don't know [2:15:57] exactly how much it is, but just in that ballpark is eye-popping. And the question is, where is that [2:16:03] money going? Not surprisingly, Musk's home state of Texas, followed by Ohio and Michigan. Frederica is [2:16:10] at the table with us. Such important reporting, Frederica, because Democrats are very worried [2:16:16] that this could stop their momentum in a lot of these states. And you write, if Republicans win the [2:16:22] midterms, Elon Musk's money may be why. And I just want to go through the top races where he is [2:16:30] investing. As I mentioned, starting with Texas, 45 million that we know of so far, then Ohio and [2:16:36] Michigan, both 10 million, Iowa and Maine. Yeah, yeah. And that is describing what his own super PAC [2:16:43] is doing, America PAC. It's almost he has two tracks. He's put more than $215 million into America PAC, [2:16:51] and America PAC is active in all those states, 17 states, a bunch of races. [2:16:57] And they're helping to turn out the vote in those places. But he also separately is giving big sums [2:17:04] to other groups. For instance, in September, he donated more than $150 million to the Senate [2:17:10] Leadership Fund, which we all know is the main Republican super PAC. Quickly, SLF turned around [2:17:17] and put that money into something called Texas PAC, which is set up to help Ken Paxton win in Texas. [2:17:24] And so that money has been going into advertising that it has been attacking the Democrat, [2:17:29] James Tallarico. So that's a lot of money in Texas that can be traced back to Elon Musk. [2:17:36] And money that they would not have to spend likely had the president not endorsed Ken Paxton and John [2:17:41] Cornyn, the incumbent Republican, were on the ballot and not him. I want to read a little bit more from [2:17:47] your story. Republicans familiar with the strategy describe Musk's move to shoulder some of the Texas [2:17:53] advertising costs as freeing other GOP groups to deploy resources elsewhere to protect the Senate [2:18:00] majority. So it's advertising. But I do want to drill down on what you just said about about door [2:18:05] knocking, because Elon Musk is is a tech guy. And he and a lot of these groups know how to find voters. [2:18:13] They buy GrowTarget. They know who voted when they know how to find them. So if you have enough money, [2:18:18] you can spend time literally going voter to voter and making sure to the best of your ability that they [2:18:25] get out to the polls, which matters in a time where there's a lack of Republican enthusiasm. [2:18:30] Absolutely. They can target them and they're targeting them on the doors, [2:18:33] but they're also targeting them on digital advertising. If you go on Facebook, for instance, [2:18:38] you will see all of these ads directed at very specific folks saying, hey, have you checked your [2:18:43] registration? Are you ready to vote? Hey, remember to vote. One of the things that America PAC has done is