Meet the Press Full Episode — March 15

[0:00] This Sunday, oil shock. [0:03] Prices are coming down very substantially. Oil will be coming down. [0:07] It's just a matter of war that happens. [0:13] Energy prices surge, markets tumble, and the risks to the global economy are rising [0:19] as the war with Iran triggers the largest oil supply disruption in history. [0:24] I'll talk to Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Democratic Senator Adam Schiff of California [0:30] and key details for my exclusive phone interview with President Trump, plus mixed messages. [0:37] You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won. We won in the first hour it was over. [0:42] President Trump declares victory over Iran while also saying the fight must continue. [0:49] We don't want to leave early, do we? We got to finish the job, right? [0:54] What comes next in the Middle East? [0:56] If you ask Donald Trump if we're at the end of the war or the beginning, he says, [1:00] it's going to be a war. [1:00] It's going to be a war. [1:01] I'll talk to New York Times columnist Tom Friedman and under pressure ahead of the midterms, [1:07] President Trump pushes Republicans to pass his proof of citizenship voting bill. [1:13] This is the number one priority. It should be for the House. [1:16] Will the Senate break the filibuster to pass it? [1:18] We don't have the votes and there isn't anything I can do about that. [1:22] Joining me for insight and analysis are NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent Melanie Zanona, [1:28] Sam Jacobs, editor in [1:30] chief of Time, Faz Shakur, former campaign manager for Senator Bernie Sanders, and Lonnie Chen, [1:38] a fellow at the Hoover Institution. Welcome to Sunday. It's Meet the Press. [1:46] From NBC News in Washington, the longest running show in television history. [1:51] This is Meet the Press with Kristen Welkin. [1:55] Good Sunday morning. With the war in Iran entering its third week, [1:59] President Trump told me in a phone interview Saturday that Iran has, [2:04] has been defeated militarily. He also said Tehran is ready to make a deal, [2:09] but the terms aren't good enough yet, declining to say what those terms are. [2:14] The president added that he is hearing the new Supreme leader is dead, but did not provide [2:20] evidence. And all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most vital shipping [2:25] lanes for oil. Iran has all but shut it down, pushing oil prices over $100 a barrel. [2:31] The president telling me the U.S. is working, [2:34] with other countries, to try to secure the Strait, while acknowledging Iran could still [2:39] make trouble by dropping mines to try to blow up ships in transit. [2:44] With Iran vowing to keep the Strait effectively closed, President Trump ordered strikes Friday [2:49] on Iran's Karg Island, Iran's main oil hub. The president telling me Karg Island has been [2:55] decimated, though he may hit it again, quote, just for fun. He said he does not expect to [3:01] send U.S. troops onto the island to secure the oil. [3:04] Now, so far, the conflict has claimed the lives of 13 service members. With Americans [3:10] worried about rising prices at the pump, President Trump told me gas prices will drop precipitously [3:16] as soon as the war is over, reiterating his message earlier this week in Kentucky. [3:23] But oil prices are already coming back down, and it's going to come down, but we're not [3:28] leaving until that job is finished, and it's going to be very fast. It's going to be very fast. [3:32] And joining me now is Energy Secretary, [3:36] Chris Wright. Secretary Wright, welcome to Meet the Press. [3:42] Thanks for having me, Kristen. [3:44] Thank you so much for being here. I want to start right there on gas prices, top of mind [3:49] for Americans. Since the war began, the national average price for gasoline is up 24 percent, [3:56] and diesel prices have jumped 32 percent. Mr. Secretary, when can Americans expect to see the [4:04] price of gas come down? Yeah, after the conflict is over, you'll start to see [4:11] prices come back down. But Iran immediately going to impede flow through the Straits of Hormuz, [4:18] launching attacks at all of their neighbors, even those completely uninvolved in this conflict, [4:24] just illustrates why it's so important to defang this regime. It's been the greatest [4:30] supporter of terrorism in the world. The greatest killer of American soldiers over the last 20 years [4:36] has been Iran, and we haven't fought a conflict against them until this. [4:41] This president did not want to kick this can down the road to the next administration. [4:46] The world simply can't see a nuclear-armed Iran. And so I'm proud of his actions. But yes, [4:53] it is a short-term disruption in the flow of energy. Americans are feeling it right now. [4:58] Americans will feel it for a few more weeks. But at the end, we will have removed the greatest risk [5:04] to global energy supplies. We'll go to a world more abundant in energy, more affordable in energy, [5:10] and less risky. [5:11] For American soldiers and commerce in the Middle East. [5:14] You say a few more weeks. Are you suggesting this war could be over, [5:18] will be over in a few more weeks? [5:23] I think that's the likely time frame. Yes. I think the president came out early on saying he expected [5:28] the need for four to six weeks to completely defang Iran's military capabilities. We started [5:36] focused on the projection of distant power. So their Navy has been destroyed. Their Air Force [5:41] has been destroyed. [5:43] Their long-range missiles have been destroyed. Their ability to construct and build long-term [5:50] missiles has been destroyed. And the effort continues now on more of their short-term [5:55] threats, short-range missiles, drones. The military performance has been outstanding. [6:01] But it's just critical for the world and critical for the United States that we remove this just [6:07] growing threat from Iran, defang their ability to rain terror on their neighbors and the world. [6:13] We're going to get... [6:13] We're going to get to the military response, the Strait of Hormuz momentarily. But let me just [6:17] pin down a couple of questions here. Are you confident that gas will be back [6:21] under $3 a gallon by the busy summer travel season, Mr. Secretary? [6:29] There's a very good chance that'll be true. There's no guarantees in war. The time frame's [6:35] still not entirely clear. But I think that's certainly a goal of the administration and [6:39] very possible. [6:41] Okay. Well, the price of a barrel of oil closed above $130. [6:46] $130 on Friday. And the Iranians are warning of prices hitting $200 a barrel. Mr. Secretary, [6:55] should Americans be bracing for, should they be worried that this war will actually drive [7:00] the price of oil above $200 a barrel? [7:05] So Iran for 47 years has called the United States the great Satan. So because they call us the great [7:12] Satan, I don't think we are the great Satan. In fact, clearly we're not. So I don't listen much [7:17] to Iranian projections. [7:18] So that's a no? [7:20] But there is disruptions of flow in a very important waterway. I would pay no attention [7:26] to what Iran says, but there is a lot of energy that flows through the Straits of Hormuz. And [7:32] depending upon the timing and the manner in which this conflict comes to an end, we're going to see [7:37] some elevated pricing until we get there. Where it's going to go, we have done many, many actions [7:43] to mitigate that price rise. You saw the announcement of a coordinated release of 400 [7:48] million barrels of oil. [7:49] With over 30 nations of the world participating in that. We've had allies in the Middle East that [7:55] moved oil overseas before the conflict started. Heck, we just announced yesterday bringing on [8:02] a meaningful amount of oil production in the state of California from offshore that California has [8:08] fought foolishly to prevent new American oil to go into their own state. And we said enough is [8:14] enough, and we've got new oil production coming on in California. So lots of actions we're taking, [8:19] to mitigate this price rise. [8:21] In a post on Thursday, the president wrote, quote, the United States is the largest oil producer in [8:27] the world by far. So when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. But Mr. Secretary, previously, [8:34] the president had argued that consumers benefit from lower oil prices. So which is it? Which is [8:40] better for Americans, lower oil prices or higher oil prices? [8:46] Oh, in general, lower oil prices. This president has been committed to low gasoline prices, [8:51] low diesel prices, low travel prices. He ran on that agenda. He worked on it for four years in [8:57] his first administration. So he's committed to low oil prices because 100% of Americans are affected [9:02] by that. But he's just making an economic point that we're such a large producer of oil. It does [9:09] bring a lot of money into the U.S. economy. It doesn't have the same impact on us as it does the [9:15] other nations of the world when oil prices go up. But he's all about low gas prices, low diesel [9:20] prices, low oil prices. So he's committed to low oil prices because 100% of Americans are affected [9:21] by that. But he's just making an economic point that we're such a large producer of oil. It does bring [9:21] energy prices. You referenced the Strait of Hormuz earlier. Let's talk about it. It is one of the [9:26] world's most vital shipping lanes. Shipping traffic in the Strait has slowed to a trickle. If that [9:34] is the Strait of Hormuz safe for shipping right now, Mr. Secretary? No, no, it is not. That's [9:42] that's one of the objectives at the end of this conflict is to reopen the Straits of Hormuz. But [9:47] no, it is since the conflict began. Iran has impeded flow through the Straits of Hormuz. [9:53] And that is still the case today. We have focused initially on their ability to project distant [9:59] power, impeding flows in the Straits of Hormuz, which is right next to Iran. That's near term [10:05] power or near abroad power. So that that's going to be an increasing focus of our military going [10:10] forward. You know, President Trump told me on Saturday he's reaching out to other countries to [10:16] enlist their help to secure the Strait of Hormuz. And then in a post later in the day, he named some [10:22] of the countries. [10:23] China, Japan, UK, France and South Korea. He told me some countries have committed to aiding the [10:31] United States. Can you be specific with me, Mr. Secretary? Which countries specifically are going [10:35] to help secure the Strait of Hormuz? So I won't get in front of the president or announcements [10:43] on that, but I have been in dialogue with some of those nations. So I know that to be true. But, [10:47] you know, I'm not going to I'm not going to leak any news in front of the president. But the world [10:54] knows that the United States is going to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and most importantly, [10:59] the Asian nations, Japan, Korea, China, Thailand, India, a meaningful part of their total energy [11:05] supplies come from the Straits of Hormuz. So, of course, the whole world will be united on the need [11:11] to open Hormuz. And clearly, we will have the support of other nations to achieve that objective. [11:16] But in the short term, we have to end Iran's ability to kill American soldiers, terrorize their [11:23] country, and take back the world's global energy supplies at risk, as they've done for 47 years. [11:31] Look, China was one of the names mentioned, which got a lot of attention, notable because they're a [11:35] strategic partner of Iran. Is the U.S. prepared to share intelligence with China for it helping [11:45] to secure the waterway? The United States is always in dialogue with the Chinese. They're [11:51] the second largest economy in the world, and they're a very important nation in the world. [11:56] More important for China than it is for the United States. But we care about the global economy. [12:02] We care first about Americans, but Americans live in a globalized world, so we care about all the [12:08] nations. So, look, there are, of course, our tensions with China as well, but we will continue [12:14] a productive dialogue, and I do expect China will be a constructive partner in reopening the Straits [12:19] of Hormuz. Okay. Is Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz? Look, you see flow through the [12:28] Strait of Hormuz. Look, you see flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Look, you see flow through the [12:28] Strait of Hormuz. Look, you see flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Look, you see flow through the [12:28] Strait of Hormuz. Look, you see flow through the Strait of Hormuz right now. There were five [12:31] tanker ships that went through the Straits last night carrying liquid petroleum gas, liquefied [12:36] natural gas, and crude oil. So we know flow through the Straits of Hormuz is possible. The [12:42] risk is if Iran fires on those ships. A convoy flew through last night. Iran did not fire on them. [12:48] Probably they made a deal with India. Very quickly, Mr. Secretary, there's a big debate over whether [12:53] you all were prepared for what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz. If you were prepared, why is [12:58] the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed right now? Because it's right near the Iranian shoreline. [13:08] The world is abundantly supplied with oil and energy. We knew there would be a short-term [13:13] disruption in energy flows. And to hear Chuck Schumer say that we didn't is just so, [13:19] he knows how foolish that is. And to say stuff to try to undermine the United States [13:25] in the midst of a world-changing conflict just boggles my mind. But this mission was [13:31] carefully planned out. It's been superbly executed. On the other side, we'll be in a [13:36] much better place. The greatest driver of terrorism in the world, the greatest threat to global energy [13:42] supplies will be defanged. Yes, we have disruption to get there, but we're going to be in a much, [13:48] much better place in the not-too-distant future. Mr. Secretary, let's talk about Russia. The [13:53] Treasury Department temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian oil this week amid reports that Russia [14:01] is using intelligence to target U.S. assets in the region. Why is the United States rewarding Russia? [14:10] So this is not rewarding Russia. I understand that it can be seen that way. [14:14] How else can it be seen? But Mr. Secretary, how else can it be seen if the U.S. is lifting [14:19] sanctions on Russia? Because the oil we're lifting sanctions on is already on the water waiting to [14:28] unload in a Chinese port. But it'll wait there for six or eight weeks. So instead of letting that oil [14:35] go, we told the Indians and then the broader nations of Asia, go ahead and buy that oil, [14:40] bring it into your port now, and keep your refineries running. That oil was already exported, [14:45] already going to be sold. We're just changing the destination of where it'll be sold. And by doing [14:50] that, we're keeping a little bit of a lid on oil prices and helping our allies across Asia. Mr. [14:56] Secretary, when I pressed the president on lifting these sanctions on the phone, he told me that [15:02] Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is, quote, [15:05] far more difficult to deal with than Russian President Vladimir Putin. [15:10] Do you agree with that statement by President Trump? [15:15] I have not been involved in the peace negotiations there. All I can say is the [15:19] president and the administration are deeply committed to trying to find a way to end this [15:25] over four-year war. It takes a moderator like the United States and two nations to agree. [15:31] I sure hope we can end that just murderous war that's been going on for over four years. [15:37] Russia's lost over a million men injured or killed in action in that battle. [15:42] But Mr. Secretary, as a member of the cabinet, what do you think? Do you think [15:47] that President Zelenskyy has been more difficult to deal with than Vladimir Putin? [15:52] Does that ring true for you? [15:56] Look, I think President Trump is referring to peace negotiations. President Zelenskyy has [16:02] fought valiantly, as the Ukrainians have, to save their nation. We have worked with them to help [16:10] to stop the gathering attacks from Russia. So my engagements have been on the Ukrainian side, [16:15] not the Russian side. The Ukrainians have been hard fighting patriots to prevent the takeover [16:21] of their nation, keep their people energized in war. That's all I've seen. But President Trump's [16:28] agenda is to try to bring a war to an end. That's all he's speaking about there. [16:33] All right. Secretary Chris Wright, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate it. [16:39] Thanks for having me. [16:40] And when we come back, [16:41] Senator Adam Schiff of California joins me next. [16:56] Welcome back. And joining me now is Democratic Senator Adam Schiff of California. Senator Schiff, [17:01] welcome back to Meet the Press. [17:02] Good to be with you. [17:05] It's good to have you back. Let me ask you about the big picture argument that we are hearing [17:11] from the Trump administration, with top officials — you just heard Secretary Chris [17:15] Wright — argue that the threat from Iran is so significant, not just to the world, [17:22] but that to the United States, that invading now will ultimately make the world more secure. [17:30] Do Trump officials have a valid point there, Senator? [17:35] No, I don't think they do. And I don't think the president has really leveled with the American [17:39] people, first by promising the American people he wouldn't bring us into another foreign war, [17:44] then being unwilling to tell us what the real cost of this war are going to be. And we still [17:49] don't hear from the secretary, don't hear from the president what the real cost of this will be, how [17:54] long it will go on. Already, we've spent billions and billions of dollars, and more significant, [17:59] we've lost 13 service members as a result of the war. And we still haven't heard a clear [18:05] articulation of why we're at war. What was the imminent threat we were facing? They've said it [18:09] was a nuclear threat, but the intelligence doesn't back that up. They said it was a threat of being [18:14] hit in the United States by ballistic missiles. That is years and years away. They want regime [18:21] change, but then they say they don't want regime change. And when you [18:24] ask how long this war is going to go on, the secretary can't tell you, the president won't [18:28] tell you. And it's because not having a clear object in mind when we began this war, it makes [18:34] it very difficult to tell when its objectives have been accomplished. This is why I think the [18:39] president was so vague with you when he wouldn't describe to you what kind of a deal is he looking [18:44] for with Iran, because it just isn't clear. And now there's the prospect with the 31st [18:51] Marine Expeditionary Force going to the region. [18:54] We have boots on the ground. And I don't think they've leveled with us about that either. So [18:59] I don't think the war is worth the costs. And it has already unleashed a lot of things that [19:05] should have been foreseen, like the closing of the Strait, like Iran's attack on its neighbors. [19:10] But it's not clear that the president had a plan for any of this. [19:14] Well, you did hear Secretary Wright say he anticipates the conflict will be over [19:18] in the next few weeks. Do you accept that timeline? Do you think that's [19:22] realistic based on what you're seeing? [19:26] One thing I agreed with the secretary on is when he said there are no guarantees in war. [19:31] It may very well have been that when they began this war, they expected it to be over [19:35] very quickly, that they thought it would be like Venezuela, except Iran isn't like Venezuela. [19:40] You can't simply pick the number two mullah to replace the number one mullah [19:44] and expect things to be any different. So the bottom line is they don't really know when this [19:49] war is going to end. And I hope and pray that it does end very soon. But as we have seen, our enemy, [19:56] Iran, also has a vote in when things end. And if Iran keeps blowing up ships or trying to blow up [20:01] ships in the Strait and gas prices continue to go up and up for Americans, then it is very [20:08] foreseeable we could become even more entrenched in this to try to keep the Strait open. [20:14] I have a very hard time believing that China and the other countries the president listed to you [20:19] are really going to be escorting ships through the Strait. That just doesn't add up to me. [20:26] The bottom line is we simply don't know how long this war is going to go on, [20:30] but we know the costs to the American people are already too high. For a president who promised to [20:35] bring down the cost of living for Americans, this is doing exactly the opposite and raising the cost [20:42] and the difficulty of Americans to be able to afford simple groceries and lodging and rent and [20:51] energy prices. It's simply unsustainable. [20:54] JUDY WOODRUFF Well, let me ask you, David Boies, who's, [20:56] of course, a former U.S. Secretary of State. He's a former U.S. Secretary of State. [20:56] JUDY WOODRUFF Well, let me ask you, David Boies, who's, of course, a former U.S. Secretary of State. [20:56] A Democratic attorney who argued Bush v. Gore before the Supreme Court argues that President [21:02] Trump ultimately had no choice but to act on Iran. And he writes this, quote, [21:08] if he hadn't acted, his successor would have been left with an even more dangerous choice than his [21:14] predecessors left him. Three or four years from now, the Iranian missiles now hitting Iran's [21:19] neighbors could be hitting Berlin or London, perhaps even New York or Washington, perhaps [21:25] with a nuclear device. [21:26] JUDY WOODRUFF I certainly concur that Iran is a terrible [21:41] actor, that it engages in state-sponsored terrorism. But let's remember, we had a nuclear [21:46] agreement with Iran that put serious constraints on the Iranian nuclear program. And Donald Trump [21:51] tore up that agreement. And when you do that, when you essentially say that diplomacy is not the way [21:56] to resolve this, you're not going to get a deal. You're not going to get a deal. You're not going [21:57] to get a deal. You're not going to get a deal. You're not going to get a deal. You're not going [21:58] to get a deal. You're not going to get a deal. You're not going to get a deal. Then that leaves [22:00] war. And that's what we're encountering now. [22:03] But the president promises he wouldn't engage in this. And there was nothing imminent about [22:08] the threat from Iran. The nuclear program supposedly was obliterated just about nine [22:14] months ago. The missile program is incapable of reaching the United States for years and years, [22:19] according to the Defense Intelligence Agency's own estimate. It would be nine years before [22:24] that is true. And unless the United States is [22:28] prepared to continue to bomb Iran year after year after year, how do we respond when Iran starts to [22:34] rebuild their missile program, as they will? Are we going to be in an endless state of war with [22:40] Iran? And the administration simply has no answers for this. And I don't think that leaves the [22:45] American people better off or safer. [22:47] Let me ask you about these Russian sanctions. You obviously supported Russian sanctions. The [22:52] administration has scaled some back, arguing removing them on Russian oil experts will [22:58] ultimately help lower prices for consumers. My question for you, Senator, with Americans feeling [23:04] pain at the pump, as you know, is easing pressure on Russia, which is temporary, worth it? [23:14] I think this is a terrible decision, but it is one of the things that comes [23:19] about as a result of the unpredictability of war. We are now giving Russia essentially $140 million [23:30] in sanctions, $140 million a day, when Russia is providing intelligence to Iran to better attack [23:40] and kill American troops. And you're darn right, when you ask the secretary about this, it is [23:45] rewarding Russia, and it is punishing Ukraine. And for the president, when he's criticized about [23:53] lifting the sanctions on Russia, to somehow turn around and blame Zelensky, blame Ukraine. No, Russia [24:00] is the problem here. And we are enriching our adversary, Russia, at Ukraine's expense, [24:06] because the administration didn't properly foresee how much this war with Iran was going to raise [24:11] oil prices and gas prices for Americans. So terrible and tragic decision, which [24:18] only empowers Russia to make war more fully against Ukraine. [24:23] A couple more questions here, Senator. I want to talk about the cost [24:26] of the war. It's cost more than $11 billion in its first six days. [24:31] Some of your Senate Democratic colleagues have said they are open to reviewing requests [24:36] for additional funds, arguing it may be necessary for overall military readiness. [24:41] Would you consider voting for or approving more funding for the military during this conflict? [24:50] No, the military has all the funding it needs for this conflict, unless this conflict goes on [24:54] for years. There was an extra $150 billion for the military in the big ugly bill that passed [25:03] last year. So the Pentagon has all the resources that it can use in the current conflict. Now, [25:09] the future is something different, and we'll have to figure out what the future needs of the military [25:14] are, because we are depleting so many of the stocks of the military, another huge cost of the [25:19] war. But let's think about what is being lost right now, and that is all of these billions, [25:26] this $11 billion just within the first few days, that's money that could have gone into new [25:32] hospitals and new schools. [25:33] It could have gone into healthcare for people. It could have gone into meeting the needs of the [25:37] American people. A hospital costs about $100 million. That means that if we're spending a [25:43] billion a day in Iran, we're effectively dropping 10 hospitals a day on Iran and destroying the [25:50] potential we would have had to make that kind of investment in our country. That's [25:54] money we're never going to get back. So the Pentagon doesn't need more money right now for [25:59] this war. [26:01] It doesn't need to open pipelines off the [26:03] California border. [26:03] California coast. And by the way, Kristen, that was something the administration was pushing even [26:08] before the war. So they're just using this now as a pretext to try to open pipelines that have [26:14] resulted in terrible spills in California. This is the cost, the human cost of this mistake by [26:21] the president to bring us to war again. Senator, I do have to ask you just finally about this [26:26] partial government shutdown, DHS not being funded for a month now. Just this week, we saw terror [26:34] attacks in West Bloomfield, Michigan, in Norfolk, Virginia. This morning, the CEOs of the nation's [26:41] major airlines and cargo carriers have written a letter to Congress calling for them to end the [26:46] shutdown, talking about the importance of American security in the airways. Is it responsible for [26:53] Democrats to hold up DHS funding with the threat of terror? [26:56] Is it responsible for DHS funding with the threat of terror attacks looming during this conflict? [27:01] No, Kristen, as you know, we offered vote after vote, resolution after resolution, [27:06] even as recently as this week, to reopen those agencies to fund them. And the Republicans voted [27:12] it down. We said, let's wall off ICE funding. Let's fund these other agencies that protect [27:18] the country. And the Republicans, one after another, voted them down, voted down funding TSA, [27:23] voted down funding the Coast Guard, voted down funding FEMA. So Republicans, [27:28] are controlling both houses in the presidency. They can't very well blame the minority party for [27:33] their own inability to govern, particularly when they're voting down Democratic motions [27:38] to reopen these agencies. All right, Senator Adam Schiff, [27:42] thank you very much for being here. We appreciate it. [27:47] Thanks, Kristen. And when we come back, [27:49] New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman joins me next. [27:59] Welcome back. And joining me now is New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman. Tom, [28:04] welcome back to Meet the Press. Great to be here, Kristen. Thank you. [28:06] It's wonderful to have you here for some perspective about where things stand right [28:12] now. I did have the opportunity to talk to President Trump on the phone yesterday for [28:16] about a half hour, and I asked him to characterize the status of the war. He told me Iran is, quote, [28:23] completely defeated militarily. How would you characterize where things stand in Iran right now? [28:30] Well, what strikes me about your conversation with the president, Kristen, is everyone wants [28:33] to declare we won or we lost, you know, and we're two. [28:36] We're two weeks and a day into this, and this is a hugely complicated problem. What I would say, [28:41] what we're seeing right now is the power of the strong versus the power of the weak. So on the [28:46] one hand, the United States has the power to inflict terrible damage to Iran's military and [28:52] infrastructure. At the same time, Iran has the power, the power of the weak, that with just one [28:57] drone or one cruise missile, we can cut off the Straits of Hormuz, 20 percent of the world's oil [29:04] and natural gas. There are 600 ships bottled up. [29:06] There are 600 ships there right now. So the balance of power between the power of the strong and the power of the weak is what I'm watching. And I think that's how that levels out is going to be, I think, the determinant. [29:16] It was interesting because the president said that one of the things that surprised him most was the fact that Iran is, in fact, taking aim at its Arab neighbors and the president indicating that that was something that they were not anticipating. [29:33] How have those attacks by Iran? [29:36] How have those attacks by Iran complicated the dynamic of this overall conflict? It's become a regional conflict. [29:41] Well, you know, one of the strategies the Iranians have employed against America now for 40 years in various different conflicts is what I call the strategy of out crazy. We will out crazy, okay? The reason the Israelis have probably done better than any other country against Iran is they will not be out crazy. And so that's always been an Iranian strategy. I did not expect them to attack Iran. [30:06] I did not expect them to attack Iran. [30:06] I did not expect them to attack Iran. [30:06] I did not expect them to attack their Arab Gulf neighbors. But you can understand why. They thought that's where they're most vulnerable. The American bases there are vulnerable. And they hope to create a lobby of Arab Gulf states to pressure the president to end the war. It will have long-term implications, though, for Iran's relations with those states. Remember, Iranians, a lot of them bank their money in those Gulf states. A lot of them treat them as a sort of a valve to go release a lot of their energy. So the long-term implications of that are going to be profound. [30:35] Well, and the implications of the leadership, obviously one of the biggest questions that we're watching right now is this war about regime change. Based on what Iran, Iranian State TV is saying, the leader right now is the son of the supreme leader, Maktaba Khamenei. And we know that he was injured. He put out a supposed statement that was in writing. President Trump telling me he's heard he might be dead. [31:05] Right. [31:05] And it was notable that the statement went out, wasn't on camera. We didn't hear the voice of this new supreme leader. What do you make of that? And is regime change possible, Tom? [31:17] Well, the way I look at this is basically there are, there's, in these Middle East wars, Kristen, there's the morning after and there's the morning after the morning after. Now, I think a lot of our strategy and what I've been advocating is kind of take the win now, the military defeat, what you've done. It set Iran back. [31:35] And I would be offering them a ceasefire right now. Why? Okay. Because the morning after any ceasefire, the Iranians will come out and say we defeated the big Satan and the little Satan. The morning after the morning after, millions of Iranians are going to be saying to the leadership, come here, that's my house there on the ground. That's my factory. That's my school. What the hell were you thinking? Okay, what are you going to do about that? That's when real politics will begin inside Iran. Politics will only happen inside Iran when we stop the bombing. [32:06] And that politics is the only thing that will change the character of the regime. I think that's all we're going to see in the short run. But that politics could also create fissures within the regime. Because this regime is not going to break from the bottom up. It's going to break from the top down. But it'll only happen when politics can happen. We already saw when Iran's president came out and basically apologized to the Arab Gulf states for bombing them. Right away he got slapped down by the Revolutionary Guards. That tells you the kind of fissures that are there. But politics only happens the morning after the morning after. [32:36] President told me to this point about a potential ceasefire. Iran wants to make a deal and I don't want to make it because the terms aren't good enough yet. Now I know you are actually highly skeptical of the deal that the Obama administration struck. Is a good deal possible? What would that even look like, Tom, under these circumstances? [32:56] I'm actually not skeptical of the Obama administration deal. I thought that that was a reasonable deal at the time. Let's remember when President Obama... [33:03] It wasn't an ideal deal. [33:04] Right. It wasn't perfect. [33:06] But it was the best you can get at the time. Remember when President Obama left office, Iran was a year away from a bomb. Iran now is weeks away from a bomb. And that's something President Trump will have to take responsibility for and answer for one day. [33:18] Now maybe we're able to actually eliminate, as a result of this war, Iran's fissile material, over 400 kilograms that it's stored up, and its ability to enrich more. I don't know. It's still way too early for this. [33:31] But it's only going to happen, I think, in stages, Kristen. [33:35] The first stage would be, ideally, to me, Islamic Republic 2.0, you know, where you get some more reformers in there, some balance. You maybe get a deal with Trump. God willing, that would be great. [33:47] But the idea that we're going to go from this to the Iranian revolution of the people running the country, like Les Miserables, I find that highly skeptical. [33:56] Well, the other conflict, of course, that we are watching is the war in Ukraine. [34:01] I thought it was very notable that when I was asking President Trump about... [34:05] About Russia, about the decision to lift sanctions, he pivoted to the war in Ukraine and made this claim, Putin wants to make a deal, Zelensky is far more difficult to deal with. [34:16] You heard both Secretary Wright and Senator Schiff weigh in on that. What do you make of that response by the president? [34:23] Well, there's always been something bizarre that none of us have understood, or I certainly haven't understood, about the president's relationship to Putin. [34:29] The fact that he's always ready to put maximum leverage on Zelensky and little leverage. [34:35] And that's a real problem, because we have a chance for a deal in Ukraine, I would say, Kristen. [34:43] But there's a difference between a dirty deal and a filthy deal. [34:46] And I don't know which President Trump wants. Does he want a dirty deal or a filthy deal? [34:49] A dirty deal says Russia gets to keep what it has, but there'll be an American-backed peacekeeping force on the ground in Ukraine to prevent Russia from coming back, and Ukraine gets to be in the EU. [34:59] That's a dirty deal. A filthy deal says there will be no secure guarantees for Ukraine. [35:05] And it may not even be in the EU. That's a filthy deal. [35:09] And if President Trump is responsible for a filthy deal in Ukraine, shame on him. [35:15] Finally, Tom, I want to ask you about your column that you have. It is out this morning. [35:21] It is called How Minnesota Beat Trump. [35:25] You spent time in Minnesota, which is your home state, and I want to read a little bit of what you had to say. [35:31] You say the world looks more like Minnesota today than ever before. [35:35] And so the great... [35:36] The great governing challenge in Minnesota, to my mind, is a microcosm of the great governing challenge facing America today. [35:43] Can we make out of many one? [35:45] Our great national project since our founding, when the many is now so much more diverse, even more than it was just 10 years ago. [35:55] Of course, this coming against the backdrop of the crisis with ICE. [35:59] What did you learn in Minnesota? What were your takeaways? [36:02] It was actually the most remarkable act of civic courage. [36:06] I'm men and women, not in uniform, than I've ever seen in this country. [36:12] Moms donating breast milk, dads emptying ATMs to help people who lost their jobs, [36:18] people driving one another all over the place, strangers, to get their kids to school because their parents were afraid to go out. [36:25] But for me, Kristen, it's part of what I call America first, my version. [36:30] And my version of America first is not America alone and America selfish, which is Trump's version. [36:35] My version. [36:36] My version of America first is that we be the first country in the world that demonstrates how to make out of many one, when the many is now so radically diverse. [36:45] Okay? [36:46] And why is that important? [36:47] Because all the problems we face as a country today, as a global community, are all planetary in scale. [36:53] Managing AI, managing nuclear weapons, managing migration, managing pandemics. [36:58] And so either we do that together or we're going to have a really bad century. [37:03] You know, my friend, teacher Doug Seidman, likes to say, [37:06] independence is no longer our choice. [37:09] It's our condition. [37:11] Okay? [37:11] We're going to rise together, baby, or we're going to fall together, baby. [37:15] But, baby, whatever we're doing, we're doing it together. [37:18] All right. [37:18] Well, on that very powerful note, we will leave this conversation. [37:22] Tom Friedman, thank you so very much. [37:24] Appreciate it. [37:25] Thank you. [37:25] We really appreciate it. [37:26] It is a fantastic read. [37:27] And when we come back, he took the message of the civil rights movement into presidential politics, urging America to keep hope alive. [37:36] Our Meet the Press Minute. [37:37] It is next. [37:43] Welcome back. [37:44] The late Reverend Jesse Jackson was honored with memorial services across the country after the pioneering presidential candidate passed away at the age of 84. [37:54] Former presidents Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Joe Biden joined thousands in praising Jackson as an ambassador of hope and a champion for the poor and the dispossessed. [38:07] Jackson joined Meet the Press in 1984 on the heels of his first presidential. [38:12] campaign, just days before his now iconic address to the Democratic National Convention that helped shape the party's future. [38:21] You must put one foot in the system and one foot outside. [38:24] We must fight for change. [38:25] We cannot adjust to the party. [38:27] We must change the party. [38:28] Got that right to vote 18 years ago after much bloodshed and death. [38:33] And yet 18 years later, with this great brotherhood, there are 512,000 elected officials, about 5,200 of the black. [38:40] We've got about 1% of the elected officials. [38:42] We're about to see a new era. [38:43] We've got about 12% of the population. [38:45] At this rate, it will take us 198 years to achieve parity. [38:49] My generation is restless. [38:51] We must change the system and not adjust to it. [38:55] When we come back, the growing political fight over the war with Iran and its impact on the midterms. [39:01] The panel is next. [39:08] Welcome back. The panel is here. [39:10] Melanie Zinona, NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent, editor in chief of Time, Sam Jacobs, Lonnie Chen, a fellow at the Hoover Institution, [39:18] and Faz Shakur, chief political advisor to Bernie Sanders. [39:22] Welcome to all of you. [39:23] Thank you for being here. [39:24] Sam, let me start with you. [39:26] President Trump told me that Iran wants to make a deal, but that the president doesn't think that the terms are good enough. [39:34] Where are we with this war? [39:35] What are you watching? [39:36] Well, I want to jump right off your interview with Secretary Wright and talking about the Strait of Hormuz. [39:41] I couldn't help but remember this morning the famous, if inaccurate, Pottery Barn rule from Colin Powell, who said, [39:48] if you break it, you own it. [39:49] It turns out in this situation with the Strait of Hormuz, if we break it, we co-own it with the Chinese. [39:54] I mean, it's not clear to me how we ended up here. [39:57] What will I be watching for? [39:59] Messaging. [40:00] Can the president and the administration strike one simple, clear note on what's going on? [40:05] He said to you yesterday, we're ready to make a deal, and the new supreme leader might be dead. [40:10] Who are we making a deal with? [40:12] There's a kind of an improvisational blithe way that they're handling this. [40:15] When we asked him, when Time asked the president, [40:18] are Americans going to die? [40:19] Will there be retaliatory tax because of this war? [40:22] His response was, I guess. [40:24] When I was last with you, we talked about, is affordability a hoax? [40:28] That's where the White House was in December. [40:29] If you drive by your gas station today, where prices are up 25%, I don't think affordability is a hoax. [40:35] And the last thing I would point to are external events. [40:38] This doesn't exist in a vacuum. [40:40] It exists inside a larger foreign policy. [40:42] What's going to happen with Cuba? [40:43] And what's going to happen with the meetings in Beijing at the end of the month? [40:46] Is the president going to want to be trapped? [40:48] Is the president going to want to travel to China while there are dignified transfers airing here on television? [40:52] Yeah, such great points, Sam and Mel. [40:54] It really illustrates why you're seeing these divisions across the country over the war, [41:00] quite frankly, on Capitol Hill, largely along party lines. [41:04] But that issue of messaging is a big one. [41:07] And the fact that the president hasn't really laid out an argument for what he is doing there [41:12] in a fulsome way to the country, what's the discussion on Capitol Hill that you're hearing? [41:18] Republicans right now are willing to give the president a runway on the war, [41:21] but it is not unlimited because they are getting spooked about those gas prices. [41:25] The secretary even said to you, Kristen, he thinks the prices are going to come down, [41:28] but it's not a guarantee. [41:30] And in 2024, Republicans ran on the gas and groceries election. [41:34] Every press conference up until recently, GOP leaders would kick it off by touting low gas prices. [41:39] So this is really undercutting what is supposed to be a key pillar of their affordability message. [41:43] And meanwhile, I talked to several frustrated Republicans just on Friday who said, [41:48] they wish the president would put as much political capital into passing cost of living bills [41:52] as he would on this Save America Act. [41:53] It's a voting restrictions bill. [41:55] In fact, the Senate just passed a housing bill that has a top term priority, [41:58] but he hasn't tweeted about it. [41:59] He's not leaning on the House to pass it. [42:02] And according to our reporting, he, in fact, told the speaker that no one cares about the housing fight. [42:06] Well, it's so interesting, Lonnie, because I asked President Trump if he was worried [42:10] about the price of gas on the midterms. [42:13] He said, absolutely not. [42:14] It's going to come back down. [42:16] Are Republicans worried? [42:17] What are they worried about? [42:18] What are the potential impacts here? [42:19] I think anybody who's got to face an election this year is going to be worried about this issue. [42:22] Look, this war represents, in my view, the single biggest challenge to the president's electoral coalition from 2024. [42:29] Because what you have is you have a lot of independents right now who are very concerned about both where the war is headed, [42:36] but also these affordability issues. [42:38] And the longer this goes on without a definitive sense of what the endgame looks like, [42:43] I think there are two challenges. [42:44] One is the challenge around affordability, which Republicans, Democrats, [42:48] and independents together have all said will be the top issue that voters consider when they go to the polls this November. [42:54] But the other issue is just the very real human toll that this war could take [42:58] and the concerns about loss of American life. [43:01] I think that is one thing that the military has done an exceptional job in prosecuting this war so far. [43:07] But as these two issues, the affordability issue and then the human cost of the war drag on, [43:12] I do think they put pressure on this electoral coalition, particularly around those independents who came out and supported Donald. [43:17] Trump in 2024 on what was a slightly different vision than what we're seeing today. [43:22] Faz, the independents helped President Trump win the White House in 2024. [43:25] How do Democrats' message around this, given the war, do they weave that into their argument? [43:30] Right now, you look at the winds and the way they're blowing, there's so much of a desire for a check on Donald Trump. [43:37] And that no-blank check for Donald Trump is, I think, going to deliver the House and I think even the Senate for the Democrats. [43:43] Even the Senate, okay. [43:44] And you think about a political realignment in America, [43:48] I believe that they exist, I believe that they do right now because of the fact that many independents are wanting a different sense of leadership and integrity. [43:55] The opportunity for Democrats to come forward with an agenda, not just merely say, hey, I'm going to be a check on Donald Trump. [44:00] Among the many losers of this Iran conflict, sadly, there's one clear winner, that's Texas oil men. [44:06] The people in the oil companies are going to make huge amounts of profits. [44:10] I would love to see a Democratic party that says, we're going to take a windfall tax and we're going to give a rebate to all Americans. [44:16] Clearly also stating that if you put us on the sidelines, we're going to lose. [44:18] If you put us in charge, we're going to end this war. [44:20] We haven't heard that in a very explicit terms, but I believe that you start making a case with integrity, people are hungry for a different vision and direction in this country. [44:28] And Mel, with the few minutes that we have left, there's a big battle brewing on Capitol Hill. [44:32] The backdrop, the legislative backdrop over the Save America Act, President Trump's proposal for stiffer voting restrictions. [44:40] How is it playing out? [44:42] John Thune says there aren't the votes to pass it. [44:44] Trump says it's his top priority. [44:46] There is no magic wand on Capitol Hill. [44:48] You can get the votes to overcome a filibuster, which would require Democratic support, or you can change the rules, but that requires 51 Republicans. [44:54] And right now, they don't have that. [44:56] But if Trump really wanted to pass something, he could focus on a more narrow bill that just has voting ID laws. [45:00] Those are actually quite popular. [45:02] There's some Democrats that support that. [45:04] Instead, Trump has turned this into more of a Christmas tree. [45:06] So they added a requirement that you have to show citizenship to register. [45:10] And now he's calling for anti-trans provisions, as well as some bans on mail-in voting, which is actually quite popular with Republicans. [45:16] Sam? [45:17] It's bad news for the party in power when we need people like Mel to explain what is happening in the Senate. [45:23] OK, when we're talking about filibusters and talking filibusters, every moment that those are the stories being told, rather about how we're making your life better, is a bad moment for the Republican Party. [45:32] And the fascinating backdrop to that is that Senator John Cornyn, who's in a runoff battle in Texas looking for an endorsement from President Trump, opposed to getting rid of the filibuster, now supports it in order to get the SAVE Act passed. [45:45] Could that win him Trump's endorsement? [45:46] Well, I do think it's crucial for the president to endorse Senator Cornyn if Republicans want to hang on to that seat in Texas. [45:51] I think the reality, though, is that the affordability issues, that is going to be where Republicans are unified. [45:57] That is where the energy is going to come from. [45:59] And remember, in an election year, what we're really concerned about is energy, the energy of the respective bases. [46:05] And right now, the danger for Republicans is that the Democratic base is more energized and more unified. [46:10] So Republicans have to figure out a way, a set of issues. [46:13] It's probably, you know, I think the SAVE America Act does end. [46:16] It does energize Republicans. [46:17] I think it does energize the base. [46:19] But affordability energizes everybody. [46:20] But this is why the Republicans are concerned. [46:22] And they're trying to restrict the voting around the SAVE America Act. [46:25] And I think they're backfiring here because, to his point, Democrats are fired up. [46:30] So you want to put some barriers up, Democrats are going to run through them. [46:33] It is the Republicans right now who probably will stay at home because they're not enthused. [46:37] And I look at the map and I say, we got opportunities in Maine, Alaska. [46:41] You look at Texas with James Tallarico, a fantastic candidate, speaking in Christian morals. [46:45] Speaking in Christian moral terms about wealth and income inequality in America. [46:49] And I see opportunities for picking up the Senate. [46:51] Huge, huge deal. [46:52] All right. [46:53] All eyes are going to be on Texas. [46:54] That's for sure. [46:55] Guys, thanks for a great conversation. [46:57] We really appreciate it. [46:58] That is all for today. [46:59] Thank you for watching. [47:01] We'll be back next week because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.